haidi: what about commodities currencies? uplift in the aussie dollar, could that be sustained if we get more signs of life from the chinese economy? >> absolutely. later in the year, there is more upside for commodity prices. there is upside at the beginning of the year will the second half when rate cuts come in, we think there will be a number of commodities that see upsides. there is industrial metals and for crude oil prices, upside potential and as you mentioned, if we see further strengthening in the chinese economy, the chinese commodity demand will see uplifted prices as well. for 2024, the second half and 2025, there is significant upside potential. haidi: could we see further support for pressures? >> i'm sorry, could you ask again? haidi: could we see further support for precious metals given the outlook of the dollar and the fed? >> it is a mixed bag for precious metals. there is more upside for gold prices. palladium prices have been under pressure. they often trade more like industrial metals at times and they

haidi: the u.s.mpaign begins in earnest today with the first official nominating base, the iowa republican caucuses, adding an element of uncertainty to the first big test of donald trump's lead in the polls. over texas bureau chief joined us from des moines. julie, former president trump is expected to win. his lead is a pretty big margin. does he need a big victory to make a big statement? julie: he does need a big victory tonight and that is what the trump campaign is hoping for. i saw the former president who tells me, "we are going to win tonight." the emergent, though, as you just discussed is what people will be paying attention to. it's the first nominating event here, much tradition behind this. in 2016, republicans shattered records coming out to caucuses. this year may be a little different. the weather has been brutal. tonight is slightly better in terms of the blowing wind, but temperatures are below zero. there was a blizzard several days ago. however, i was told by the iowa state party

haidi: mm.te: the biggest issue is this view that is out there that there is going to be, as i heard one person say, a 50 basis point rate cut in march. no. i think that is what we saw last week, was people beginning to think through this and say, wait, let's pull this back here. and it is still going to be a challenging environment for interest rates, interest rates are still high and they will stay high and will not be higher for longer periods but they will stay relatively higher-for-longer. what is that going to mean for individual companies in the market as a whole? haidi: what are you watching in terms of the international environment? there is a structurally challenging period for china and that could potentially give rise to new policies, potentially more trade tensions especially against the backdrop of an election year. jeannette: watching china very closely, because the very surprising there. it is such an important player in global markets, that we would like to see convincing signs

haidi: john herskovitz in tokyo.national team of investigators is coming through the wreckage of the two aircraft that collided at tokyo's airport. they are hoping that the recorders from the airbus could provide clues about the final moments before impact. the cockpit voice recorder has also been recovered. pressure is building to find out exactly how the aircraft ended up on the same runway at one of the world's busiest commercial airports. we are watching the yen under pressure. banks repricing their bets. let's bring garfield reynolds. we are seeing traders the least bullish on the yen since august. is there more room for further weakness? garfield: at least in the short-term term, yes. it was one of those puzzles about those year-end moves that became extreme across assets. when it came to the yen, the expectation that the fed would be cutting rates rapidly and that the boj would be moving fairly rapidly to end negative rates. those factors combined to set up a strong move in the yen. we've had pullback on both

haidi: katrina nicholas in sydney.rg. ♪ ♪ >> i think we have to recognize how incapable the united states and our present set of global leaders are in containing geopolitical risks and conflicts. the united states has zero ability to make messages land with the actors on the ground to are escalating the conflict. haidi: yen brim are on why he thinks the u.s. is incapable of containing geopolitical risks. china upgraded diplomatic ties last year in a bid to rally support from the global south. they describe ties with 17 countries and territories. the highest number since xi jinping took power over one decade ago. china's envoy to the u.s. says beijing has no room for compromise with those advocating for taiwanese independence. ambassador said he is urging the u.s. to follow the one china principle. china called taiwan's candidate a troublemaker. his views risk sparking a conflict. relations with beijing are top of mind for voters. stephen engle reports on an opposition candidate from the kmt party. stephen: homecoming c

erica: hi, haidi.have a transcript of communications before the crash and it suggests that the coast guard airplane did not have permission to take off and was asked to hold this for entering the runway. a japan airlines passenger jet, on the other hand, was cleared to land. crews seem to have acknowledged the instruction to taxi and to hold important. officials from the coast guard yesterday refrained from commenting further on how the miscommunication happened as they are still investigating the details. this morning actually, japan airlines said it expects to book about 15 million yen charge over the incident. they are still assessing the impact on earnings. shery: shery: the coast guard plane was on a mission to deliver supplies to earthquake- stricken areas. how are the rescue efforts shaping up? >>>> it has been more than two days since the first earthquake happened and still, intensive rescue work is underway under rain and cold weather. more than 30,000 people at evacuation centers waiting to g

haidi: quiet.es on the ground when it comes to trading in sydney and january is quiet but we have japanese markets closed for holiday and to sydney stocks advancing one quarter of 1%, 2/10 of 1% i should say in new zealand we are not seeing the market do much of anything, this is stuck at just a marginal gain pretty much all morning session and a bit of a muted downside, taking into account the aftereffects of the earthquake and the tsunami warning in japan, some of which is still in place in parts of japan. market open in seoul is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ get over here kids. time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. and see migration in theaters now. >> t

haidi: obviously u.s.pi is a big one for this week it in december you alluded to the fact that you thought the market was getting too exuberant. has you are thinking changed in terms of a soft landing, whether the data supports expectations of fed easing? brian: i think that we might get a little bit of a surprise to the upside with the inflation numbers tomorrow. looking at the bloomberg information as far as distribution of forecasts, .2% is the median. but with some of the housing numbers, insurance numbers, maybe it could push it closer to .3%. it is not a huge miss, but it could be enough to make people re-question whether or not the fed is going to hike even the 3% the fed has projected. the market has moved from pricing in six rate cuts in 2024, to now around 4.5% to 5%. there will be what that -- that bow between the fed projections and what the fed is expecting. it could create more near-term volatility but i would view that as a 5% to 7% pullback as being a good opportunity to allocate for a long

haidi: haidi: our asia transport reporter danny lee there. bloomberg has been told that chinese president xi jinping's sweeping military purge has, the response to widespread corruption that is undermining his efforts to modernize the armed forces. such a delight to have you here in sydney and on this incredible bloomberg scoop, rebecca choong wilkins. when this was played out last year, we were wondering, what is going on, where are we seeing these individuals being purged? now, we have a good idea. rebecca: it is a notoriously opaque part of the chinese establishment, so really extraordinary reporting here from my colleagues in d.c., essentially pointing to the flaws in china's military preparedness specifically when it comes to missiles. u.s. intelligence sources telling us that is what is behind this sweeping purdue have seen in terms of the known figures, at least 15 people from the defense establishment purged in recent months. some of the extraordinary insights we got in this story include things like missiles being filled with water i

haidi: the latest. still ahead, top u.s. banks kicking off her earnings season coming off the best quarter since 20 21. we get a preview of those numbers. vonnie: next, we are live at the global output investment conference in hong kong. haidi: this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think march is too early in my estimation for a rate decline, because i think you need to see more evidence. i think the december cpi report shows there is more work to do. vonnie: loretta mester after commenting following the latest data showing u.s. inflation take up in december. for more, we are joined now from washington, d.c. you said don't throw a bucket of cold water over the great but it adds a sprinkler affect. does that mean rate cuts later or what exactly? >> it shows you the u.s. inflation story has not totally gone away. airline fares are up. the cost of used cars are up. the cost of auto insurance rose by the most less years since 1976. then you get the big ticket items like energy costs and shelter costs all up. it is a reminder that for all th

yes, certainly, haidi.l that he would kind of front run these gdp numbers here at davos. obviously, we are going to be getting more of that data today, more comprehensive data, looking at how industrial production performed through the end of the year, fixed asset investment, retail sales, unemployment against population numbers, tons of stuff that we are expecting out of china in just a couple of hours here. but yes, i think the fact that you saw him talk about the fact that you have apparently surpassed about -- they're 5% gdp target for 2023 shows this idea that they are confident in at least how the economy performed last year. the question is what is going to happen this year. he gave a hint that they are obviously very focused on risk control and this idea that they don't need massive amounts of stimulus, massive amounts of government spending to actually keep things in check. we will see how much that actually plays into the calculus of how they form fiscal and monetary policy for this year. shery: b

haidi: cannot wait for that.we look ahead to the start of trade. standby for bloomberg markets china open. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com - if i told you something thaextends your life span,. improves your sleep, makes you more empathetic, and reduces stress and cognitive decline, you would think it was a miracle drug. but i'm talking about reading. reading every day does all those things and more, which is why i started my book club, read with jenna. so start a reading streak, even if it's just a few

haidi: and of course going into a u.s.where there is potential for more geopolitical tensions. certainly so much going on when it comes to the chinese economy. chinese president xi jinping has his hands full pledging to deepen this anticorruption crackdown and increase punishment for those who offer bribes. sectors highlighted include finance, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, state owned firms. beijing's anticorruption campaign last year targeted a record number of senior officials including high profile banks. let's head back to shanghai where the ubs china credit conference is taking place in person. we will bring in surely you -- shirley yu. the last few days we have seen how much the anticorruption fight remains for president xi. we sell reporting into how it has potentially rocked the military. the rocket force program. what do you make of this given that this has been an ongoing campaign for over a decade now? >> thank you for having me. the security centric economic thinking is indeed a risk. that has been talked ab

haidi: bloomberg's managing editor for asian stocks with the latest.ook across this futures trading. some markets will come online in the next half-hour. these prospects when it comes to chinese equities staging a turnaround. does not seem to be taking much of a cue when it comes to the $50 billion injection from the government into policy banks. it does not seem like that will be a big enough kitchen sink measure to turn the sentiment around. we are seeing a bit of weakness when it comes to s&p futures. the broader markets in the u.s., stocks and bonds dropping, worst start to the year in decades. that year end rally did not pick up where it left off and in fact went in the opposite direction. one of the worst drops across both asset classes to start any year. we are seeing a bit of pessimism when it comes to thai futures, down by almost 1%. we are watching dollar china trading. the chinese currency has been holding pretty steady, but potentially we see the impact more of the gains we have seen in the greenback with the dollar opening the year with th

haidi: that is right. stocks reporter talking about the idea some of the certainty has already been priced in when it comes to at least equity risk appetite. and potentially as we get past any kind of near-term market reaction, it is likely to subside quickly. bloomberg intelligence saying within the next one to two quarters judging by historical trends, will likely to see the returns are focused when it comes to the fundamentals. we are seeing trading up by nine tens of 1% when it comes to the ftse taiwan index futures. seeing at the moment a good rise after the dpp win. other ongoing areas of focus for investors in taiwan. tech earnings rebound up to 25% this year. the course of the outlook when it comes to the fed and other central banks. much more to come here on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: over the next hour, the pboc will announce its decision when it comes to the medium-term lending rate. the bank has signaled it may deploy liquidity tools to boost economic growth. spring in our china

haidi: charlotte yang with us. and the demographic shift could pose challenges to a government already contending with deflationary pressures and a structural property crisis. joining us is our economics analyst. they told people to have more kids, they try to dismantle the one child policy, but it is proving to be not that much of an incentive. >> at this point the demographics are challenging and it will have a significant long-term growth impact. we know the population started to decline in 2022. in 2023, the trend accelerated. there are varied concerns and increasing job and income and security. we have done projection, the acceleration in the population decline and the property slump. growth could decelerate to 3.5% by 2023. that is a significant downward revision. we are looking at growth above 4% before 2030. it is quite a worrying trend. shery: it doesn't help we continue to see chinese people hoarding cash because you're not seeing that strong safety net. how does this compare to japan in the 1990's when w

. ♪ haidi: this is daybreak: asia. we are coming down to major market opens.ade in japan. the attention going to be focused not only on tokyo with the boj but there is the attention coming down to china's markets. we saw the csi 300 hitting a five-year low. paul: that is right. it was not just the csi 300. stocks in hong kong taking a beating. the hang seng fell below 15,000 points on monday. a level we have not seen since 1997. we heard from chinese premier calling for forceful measures to address this. annabelle: one of

haidi: this is daybreak: asia. we are coming down to major market opens. a few seconds out for the start of trade in japan. the attention going to be focused not only on tokyo with the boj but there is the attention coming down to china's markets. we saw the csi 300 hitting a five-year low. paul: that is right. it was not just the csi 300. stocks in hong kong taking a beating. the hang seng fell below 15,000 points on monday. a level we have not seen since 1997. we heard from chinese premier calling for forceful measures to address this. annabelle: one of the reasons we have seen a lot of investors pivoting away into japanese markets. the nikkei rising nearly 10% over the course of this year alone. our of that coming down to what has been a dovish boj. today we have a decision due in the next few hours. the expectation from all of the economists we surveyed and we have steve on the ground. a hold -- a change is expected. the messaging we get from governor ueda is going to be crucial to watch what he signals around inflation and where the price pressures ar