. >> welcome to manchester, new hampshire, a little over one day until the start of the 2012 new hampshire primary. i'm megyn kelly. >> bret: i'm bret baier, over the course of the next hour we'll show you why so much is still up in the air when the voting starts in the granite state. >> we'll hear from fox news correspondents and political experts about the state of the race tonight. >> bret: that and much more on this, america election headquarters special. >> at the stroke of 12 a.m. in the far northern part of new new hampshire, 20 minutes from canada will be the first to vote. and polls all over the place will open doors to voters in this the first of primary elek season and as massachusetts governor, mitt romney is a favorite here, he has a home in the state. more than half of voters have yet to settle on a favorite. and we have team coverage and carl cameron will tell us on the campaign trail and steve brown will talk about the undecided voters and molly brown for the ground operations for these campaigns e let's start things off with our main man in new hampshire, campaign carl cam

>> we are about to start one here in new hampshire. >> let's take a look where things stand in new hampshirety poll you're polling in third place and mitt romney with 41% and ron paul ahead of you by six points. romney hat wind in his back coming out of iowa. how do you make up that kind of ground in a week? >> polls go up and down. i was ahead of rick santorum in an iowa poll about a week ago. five or six percent. he was at 5%. look how quickly these things change. it's because you'll have the citizens of this great state will begin to coalesce around a candidate who they have heard from and seen who they trust to deliver a message that is going to deal with this nation's economic deficit and deal with our trust deficit. those are the two most compelling issues of our time. we have taken our history as a public servant out there, told the people of this great state what we are prepared to do to get this country moving again and i like our chances. we have gone from zero to now third place in this race and i like our position going forward. >> governor, sketch out a narrative for me in which

new hampshire. also independent voters are a huge element here. unlike other states registered independents can walk in and vote in the gop primary. that will be a huge indication which way things are going here. most of the polling is showing a lot of them don't know who they will vote for yet. >> if i'm president of the united states i will use all of my energy not to protect my job but to create jobs for the american people and to make things better for americans. >> we're at the extreme ends of the political spectrum engaging in this hyper charged political rhetoric. all the while the work of the people isn't getting done. >> if something happens much greater than we are anticipating and do very, very well here tomorrow as well as doing well in south carolina, you can always reconsider. you sort of take one week at a time. >> selection is wide open. it is a classic new hampshire, last-minute, you pollsters thought you understood us and boy were you wrong. >> second place would be a dream come tr

and coming to new hampshire, this is his backyard. >> why hasn't huntsman caught on in new hampshire?ew hampshire voters would like. you know, not overly conservative. he's moderate like a lot of voters here define themselves as -- what is it about him that has led everyone else to have a turn except him? >> there is an old saying in advertising and politics, you can have great advertising and great organization and great signs, great buttons, a resume candidate, which is clearly what jon huntsman is, he's a very talented fellow, very smart guy, but when the dog don't eat the dog food, there is something wrong with the recipe. i think fundamentally jon huntsman was never able to make a case that really differentiated him. the other problem is voters here in new hampshire and iowa understand the difference between the book tour and a campaign. the one state wonder strategy has never worked. it won't work this time. and it didn't work for him. >> we have to leave it there. thank you. we'll be back in a moment. this is "the early show" on cbs. in the polls here? this the "early show" on

hampshire. >> very exciting. very exciting. >> shepard: can he live up to the hype or will he fall short. >> i hope the state of new hampshire shows up. the entire nation is watching. >> shepard: but first place is not the only prize. >> this race is going to be a long race. >> shepard: tonight, how failing to finish strong could spell the end for some candidates. plus, a sitdown with jon huntsman. >> you sit back now and say we are going to let the people of new hampshire now cast a vote and live with the results tonight. >> shepard: former ambassador on his run for the white house. voters drop their first ballots early this morning. now they are ready to cast their last ones. less than an hour away now from the final poll closings. we will see which way the winds are blowing. and from grade school lobbying efforts to his eventual rise to power and all the highs and lows in between. we'll look at newt gingrich before he was a candidate. but first from fox this tuesday night, most of the polls h

the common wisdom about new hampshire republicans, about the role of new hampshire republicans in thispresidential nominating process is that they're the sane ones, right? if iowa republicans are sort of the out of the mainstream republicans, a little bit kooky, at least the ones who turn out for the caucuses, they're a little on the fringe, new hampshire republicans are supposed to be the reasonable ones. they're the ones who should actually be seen as a real barometer of where republicans stand across the country. that is the reputation. if it was ever true, it is not true anymore. when republicans won up and down the ballot all across the country in the 2010 mid-terms, there were few places where their victories were as big as they were in new hampshire. this is what the new hampshire house of representatives looked like before the 2010 midterm elections. blue is democrat. red is republican, right? democrats controlled the new hampshire house by a margin of 216-173. here's what the house looked like after that election. look. boing. republicans flipped the new hampshire house and th

new hampshire. he owned new hampshire. secondly, being conservative in iowa is something very different than being conservative in the live free or die state. so what you see is that the folks in new hampshire where conservativism really lends itself to individual freedom, live free or die, economic issues especially and that's what people voted on here. they voted for romney. in iowa, conservatives voted for santorum because he's a religious conservative and a social conservative. >> douglas? >> yeah, i agree with margaret. the new hampshire conservative is a much more moderate variety than iowa. moreover, 44% of the overall vote in new hampshire were independents. so this electorate is a different electorate than the one we saw in iowa. more moderate overall. even if they had a different self-characterization and a much healthier percentage of independents who could vote in either primary and there was only one primary to vote in yesterday. >> and ron paul got a sizable amount of the vote yesterday because a lot of peopl

coming to you from manchester, new hampshire. in search of the new hampshire surprise, could the state that made bill clinton the come back kid, that rode in henry cabot lodge one time. pat buchanan, a national reputation. each of the candidates now vying for second place in the granite state is hoping to cut into mitt romney's double-digit lead. romney has 41% of voters, ron paul's support is eroding and huntsman moved into third place. with time running out for romney's rivals to stop him from turning from front runner to de facto nominee, they piled on him in the msnbc face book debate. >> if his record was so good why didn't you run for reelect none if it was that great, why did you bail out? we want someone who's going to stand up and fight for the conservative principles and not bail out and not run to the left of ted kennedy. >> i didn't go there to begin a political career. >> run again? that would be about me. i was trying to help get the state in as best shape as i possibly could. you've got a surprised look on your fac

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new hampshire has spoken. and tonight, the republican race for president boils down to one question. can anyone stop mitt romney? romney won new hampshire commandingly. taking 38% of the vote. and the former massachusetts governor demonstrated resilience and staying power, after a week of fierce attacks from his opponents, aimed partly at his record at bain capital, the massachusetts investment firm he ran for 15 years. what does new hampshire mean? here's anchors diane sawyer and george stephanopoulos. >> that's right, terry. what a win it was tonight for governor mitt romney. we should point out who came in second and third in this race, as they poured it on in new hampshire, the candidates all did. and behind mitt romney was congressman ron paul. and behind him, jon huntsman, governor jon huntsman, former ambassador to china, as well, who, in the last few days, seemed to be surging, gaining some steam. but apparently didn't have enough to take him into second place. >> there were some polls showing that he

hampshire. you think i have been on to iowa a lot? i have been to new hampshire and done more events than anybody but jon huntsman. but he cheats -- he lives thri. it won't be long until there is an election in new hampshire. believe me, this momentum is going to continue. >> this process survives because young men and women risk their lives to allow us to do this. we should act worthy of them. thank you. good luck and god bless you. on to new hampshire! >> and this campaign's never been about me. it's about a movement of american who is are -- who see our country that's really not on the track that most of us want it to be on. >> i love the fact that this is the land of opportunity. let us restore the greatness of america and keep this land the hope of the earth. thank you so much for all of your help! on to new hampshire! >> i think in terms of beating obama, having a clearly defined, conservative is vastly more likely to win than having somebody who is confused. >> there is no place that does

>> this is new hampshire. i was actually at that event and it was a great opportunity because mitt romney answered those questions on the economy so well. and he was able to answer those hard new hampshire questions and that's what we're known for here, vetting candidates. it allowed him to show his strength. >> let's show you a little bit of that, because the people who were there i know you were there -- on the platform but people said it was not as big a crowd and not organized and didn't show the skill of the vaunted romney machine on the big launch the day after a victory in iowa. let's watch. >> would you refine your earlier statement from corporations are people to corporations are abusive people? >> let's get the facts. there are two places they can go -- hold on. it's my turn. you've had your turn, now it's my turn. >> why do you want to hold people who can't afford health insurance in massachusetts but now okay with increasing costs for everyone else? >> i'm chinese and american and love this country

new hampshire doesn't. >> as important as new hampshire is for all of the candidates, it is a mattern. >> but he has a not so secret weapon, his daughters. we are going to meet them when we ret >>> republican presidential candidate jon huntsman is betting big on new hampshire. he has been crisscrossing the state hoping to overtake mitt romney as rick santorum did in iowa. >> but he is not going it alone. his three daughters are out on the stump with him and they have become internet celebrities in their own right as the jon 2012 girls, mary anne, abby and liddy huntsman, good morning. i've heard you referred to as the three most famous sisters and not kardashians in the state. i want to give you a behind the scenes how we get little notes who is who. all i'm told is mary anne, shorter blond hair. and abby, the only brunette. and liddy, longer blond hair. i'm so sorry but i've been trying so hard. what has it been like? >> thank you for having us on. >> we are happy to be here and working hard and excite week and been here the last few months and i think you'll see a lot change the ne

gwen: and path out of new hampshire for him? >> there's a following for ron paul within the republican coalition at large. i think there's going to be a piece of that in many, many states. >> the problem, gwen, it's not an expandable coalition. he has no shot at winning the republican nomination. the cerealing that dan talked about is the ceiling that exists pretty much everywhere for him. gwen: what about jon huntsman? he spent all of his time and put all of his attention new hampshire and still isn't in any double digit in polls i have seen recently? >> he wants tobt rick santorum of new hampshire. and he refers to himself that way. i did the state work here in new hampshire, just as rick santorum did it in iowa. santorum, by the way, did a lot of work in new hampshire and south carolina. wlopt it pays off in the end, we don't know. he's done all of the work but romney is much more tore mid-able here than he was in eye a. and we're also seeing one other thing on romney, his numbers are starting to go up in south carolina, whic

there are people in new hampshire who can't wait for some serenity in new hampshire, after tuesday. take a look at this sign on a diner not far from here. it's colby's breakfast and lunch in portsmouth. and it says "no politicians, no exceptions." not until after the vote on tuesday. and to be fair, no journalists, either. and they don't have to wait long. again, the big debate will be at 9:00 p.m., right here on saturday night. >>> and i want to point out to everybody that on sunday, something great is going to happen, george stephanopoulos, i don't know how you're going to do all of this, will be back in the chair for "this week." be sure to watch. he has a big, big broadcast right here from new hampshire. >> reporter: thanks. going to be exciting. >> see you soon, george. >>> and now we move on from new hampshire overseas to an extraordinary rescue at sea. at a time when there's a war of words, rising tension with iran. the u.s. navy did something spectacular. just days after the saber rattling from iran about u.s. warships in the region, one of those american ships saved 13 iran

it doesn't mean a lot for him to win in new hampshire. he should win in new hampshire. something if he lost, frankly. bill: be careful of our assumptions. the voters will have their say. >> yes, they will. bill: i'm thinking back six nights ago when no one thought iowa would go the way it did. >> remember, bill, most of these polls still have 40% of the electorate --. bill: 37%. matt, thank you. >> they haven't finalized it. bill: you bet. thanks, to you, matt and kirsten, enjoy new hampshire. >> thank you. bill: viewers at home, everyone is getting ready to face off ahead of the south carolina primary. that debate a week from tonight on the fox news channel. can only get it right here. comes out the myrtle beach convention center, monday the 16th. martha: the hits keep coming. bill: they say south carolina can be mean country when it comes to politics. we'll see if it matches the definition this year. martha: that can get interesting. this is interesting too. a colorado high school student that and aspiring model, and they said the photo she picked for year book is too

in new hampshire, it's 5.2%.itt romney populism, going after his vulture capitalism, as they've been saying, that would be the place for it. >> and a company that was the victim of bain in south carolina, if they intend to pursue that. so south carolina can be very interesting. but i think, what the established order there from the governor, now demint, going where they're going, romney gets a little more strength than one would think. he comes in 2-0. i think two factors, he's going to be paul and i think he's going to be just as much of a problem in the tent for the republicans as he will be out. and i think that you're sleeping on romney's message tonight, i think, will helpç energize the moderate independents and the democrats. because he's running on appeasement, which he cannot get anywhere with after bin laden and also. he's running on talking about the economy. and he's certainly going to have to deal with bush's legacy there. and he's going to have to start some of these hundred thousand. and he's runni

spaghetti dinner in new hampshire. mitt romney is feasting on promising poll numbers in both states, hammering president obama friday even as the nation's unemployment rate fell to a near three-year low. >> i'm sure the president wants to take credit for it, for any improvement. guess what? he doesn't deserve it. >> reporter: latest nbc news/ r news/maris poll gives mitt romney a commanding lead. with romney up double figures in south carolina polling as well, sharper attacks from opponents are now filling the air perform. >> won't create jobs and timid certainly won't defeat barack obama. >> reporter: friday newt gingrich aired his first tv ad. casting romney as a moderate. to close the gap between the front-runner romney and the field could make for a pair of highly charged nationally te televised debates this weekend. >> there's a battle for second place. and rick santorum, if he could emulate the pat buchanan showing of 1996 and get 25%, he could actually get momentum going into south carolina. >> it's great to be

in new hampshire. we'll have to see what goes into those mailers in south carolina, what goes up on the air in south carolina. but they don't expect it's going to have a huge impact here in new hampshire. they think all in all better to do this in january than to do this in the fall. >> candy crowley at the headquarters where they expect the biggest celebration. we'll see you all throughout the night. >>> jon huntsman has staked a big finish in new hampshire. there is some evidence of a huntsman surge. the former utah governor hopes a flood of votes will help him deliver a surprise finish. jim acosta is with the huntsman campaign. let's be honest. they want to beat governor romney on his home turf. now they don't expect that to happen. can they stay in the race if there's anything short of a strong second? >> i don't think so. it is new hampshire or bust for jon huntsman. he has bet big on this state. while other candidates were in iowa efgs campaigning from manchester to the white mountains. i had a c

that's probably why mitt romney is doing so well in new hampshire older -- in new hampshire.er voters have seen good and bad economies. perhaps mitt romney is doing so well because they are linking romney with the look back period. they see him as a dove tail between the leadership in solving economic problems. host: david paleologos, suffolk university pollster, and also the director of the political research center. let's look at a poll checking in with independents. romney at 34%. huntsman, 26%. ron paul, 22%. santorum, 6%. gingrich, 3%. david paleologos, tell us more about it. guest: it's an interesting dynamic. mitt romney led independents on january 1 by 23 points. so much has happened, especially with jon huntsman and how late he has rallied. he is really relying on independents or what new hampshire folks call undeclared voters. in terms of a successful model to win, romney only needs to break even, which he is doing and then some among independents. where he is laying the margin out is in the registered republican demographics, as well as others, like older voters an

that will happen here in new hampshire if that person can sustain past new hampshire. >> chris: nealup on that. there are so few surpraise ooze. rom neap has a 20 point lead . santorum hasn't gotten much of a bounce and hasn't moved at all so far. >> the other history lesson here, most republican voters seem to pick people who are on the ballot before. look back to nixon and reagan and bush and mccain. the fact is, rommny has been on the ballot and so has dr. paul. first and second place people who are knownn commodities and they seem to go into the electionn doing well. mentioning ron paul, the fact is, he's bringing people in the party that are first-time republicans essentiallyy. and he will have an influence going down the line. >> chris: we'll take a break here . when we come back, economy as a campaign issue. jobless numbers improving, how will the republicans push back against the president who said his policies are now working . today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress: bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recover

they are on the ground in new hampshire. we'll get to the campaign with karl cameron who is in amhurst. >> the two debates are important . people are going to want to see those before they make up their minds. the undecided vote is always huge. >> when you add to the biggest block of voters and four percent and 29 per democrats it could hardly be more volatile. yes, he has a double digit lead. they are under intense attacks. he can't take anything for granted and it is an expression of the attacks he is taking. he is warning folks, it ain't over until it is over. >> let me tell you. don't get too confident with the poll numbers. i have watched pole numbers come and go and it is very fluid. i need to make sure you get your friends to vote and you vote as well. >> he was eight votes short of a caucus win in iowa. he comes in here ahead of steam and polls suggest he may not be multiplying as fast as hoped and he is getting a huge crowd and response. mr. santorum made a direct reference to romney and saying that mitt romney's jo

but new hampshire is a very different place. bill whitaker is with the former pennsylvania governor tonight. bill? >> reporter: scott, only jon huntsman has spent more time here in new hampshire than former pennsylvania senator rick santorum. fresh off his surprise finish in iowa, he came here hoping to secure his position as the conservative standard bearer, the alternative to mitt romney. >> you believe here in new hampshire exactly what they believe in iowa. >> reporter: well, not exactly. >> thank you so much, iowa. (cheers and applause). >> reporter: boosted out of iowa eight votes shy of victory on the shoulders of evangelica evangelicals, rick santorum predicted a new hampshire surprise. >> good morning, everybody. >> reporter: but in this state with fewer born-again christian voters his message didn't resonate as it had in iowa. >> my answer to that was we always need a jesus candidate. how are you? , i his socially conservative rh rhetoric overshadowed his fisc fiscally conservative economic message. at one of his last