a lot of that depends on exactly what people like harker, people that have votes on that committee will do. liz: what sign in the markets are you seeing? >> well, i've got a number of stocks like foot locker, like advanced auto parts that are telling you that the consumer is tappedded. they just don't have any more money to spend. and/or they've selected where they can spend like chewy. the pet is the last thing they're going to cut back on. chewy exploded ott upside today -- to the upside today, but a lot of the consumer discretionary items are being shoved aside, and people are waiting. liz: yeah. but don't short your little kitties and your doggings. phil, we look at the consumer at the moment, but we also look at the trading atmosphere, and the markets appear to be climbing this wall of worry. >> ten stocks represent the entire return of the s&p 500. you've got to be very care. it's a very narrow market. if something goes wrong, let's assume the fed pushes ooh too hard. now, we haven't had that yet, let's assume we start to see that. let's assume the fed governor's right that we're

. >> it sounds like with jefferson and harker yesterday, that's what they're going to do >> harker iss own. don't mess with him. he's the only guy that can cover waller i felt very good about harker. i thought he represented prudence i think the mester team represents disappointed recklessness >> although jefferson was the one that got everybody's attention. >> very good very good. >> let's get the opening bell here on cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, it's ninth river, provider of construction materials. celebrating its spinoff from ndu resources. at the nasdaq, computational software company cadence design systems. >> i had cadence, you know, cadence is very good -- and again, they are a.i. they work directly with nvidia i just thought i ought to mention nvidia >> what about nvidia >> cadence, which rang the bell -- >> they've been doing quite well >> they're doing well because they provide a lot of the actual packaging for semis. >> meanwhile, jim, it's been interesting, the split between what macy's is saying about the consumer and what visa and even wells fargo are saying

the philadelphia fed president patrick harker says the u.s.d a virtual gathering of economists that the fed should not be reacting meeting by meeting, emphasizing the incoming data will determine whether additional tightening is needed. patrick: i do believe that we are close to the point where we can hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work to bring inflation back to the target in a timely manner. along this path, i project we will see modest growth this year with real gdp coming in a bit low 1%. the brics nations asking the bloc's specially-created bank to provide guidance on how a potential new shared currency might work. this includes how it could to shield the member countries from the impact of sanctions. the bloc convened earlier to discuss how it could win greater influence and challenge the u.s.. while it did not reach firm conclusions, the use of alternative currencies was among the prominent talking points. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn and this

harker moving markets, but what about the data, how does it confirm or push against a because? valerie: we had two inflation gauges that came in soft. one was the key one labor costs which were revised substantially lower. the last print was 6.3%, it was revised to 4% yesterday, big revision. within the ism manufacturing, the prices paid component fell by nine points. this is a big shift in two big gauges showing that maybe there is hopes of a soft landing. we had inflation falling. within the ism manufacturing you had on employment component -- the unemployment component remaining strong. this gave optimism to the market yesterday. two-year yields fell for the third straight session, falling 20 basis points this week as we look forward to that fed pause in june. manus: it will be interesting where the flow goes after this, as we come off this debt ceiling angst, will money market funds get deployed into pro-risk strategies. the whisper number is 250, the consensus is 190, we're at 185. how important is today's number to be sub-200? valerie: a lot of people are rolling their ey

president harker ahead of the time period.more and more like a fed first chair and the committee together. the risk consensus on the committee is no cuts and if we skip june, we are not calling it a pause so you can see how the language is shifting and if you wanted to find consensus on the committee, you can see where chairman powell can find the consensus. tom: they are all looking at the data. they are slaves to the data. we had randy carson are -- randy carson are -- randy kroszner on. jon: the emphasizing cpi, and emphasizing that we can skip june. tom: can we get existential? what does -- jon: they dial one 800 wall street journal. tom: that was the stephen wright moment. it is our immense pleasure to speak with alan ruskin. his notes are absolutely fabulous and you can get them through deutsche bank. you have an absolutely trillion on m2 dynamics -- an absolutely brilliant --paragraph on m2 dynamics. alan: we will see dated today that shows that productivity was extremely weak in q1. and also on eight training basis and

speaks and the other folks have been out there. >> so harker's hold, is that more dovish than a skip? >> i think so, i think so. ly point out that my producer, betsy spring, does point out that yesterday's marks were not scripted, today's were so i don't know if he wants to upgrade his skip to a hold or if it was just off the top of his head typically when they talk about these things, they think about their words very carefully i don't want to get too overly l linguistically geeky about this stuff, but he is saying hold today, skip yesterday and not a pause. >> and the dow up 209. steve, stay with us. let's hive deeper into the economic data and whether or not the fed is winning the fight against inflation. joining me now on my two guests. welcome to you both. when your gauge fell below 3% this week or last week, it garnered a lot of headlines. explain how this works and what it is telling us >> basically, we use fresh data. we aggregate some 18 million items that we track daily, and so we just use that and take a modern technology based approach so that the data we use is fresh in

what i'm joined now also by adam harker,- what i'm joined now also by adam harker, associate sshshsa—lson llp. and adam, he has to actually— brett wilson llp. and adam, he has to actually prove something, asssh-s— has to actually prove something, asssh-h hs— has to actually prove something, asssh-h hs, h— has to actually prove something, doesn't he, in court? well he sass. — doesn't he, in court? well he sass. hs— doesn't he, in court? well he does. it's his— doesn't he, in court? well he does. it's his case- doesn't he, in court? well he does. it's his case to- doesn't he, in court? well he does. c g“ does. it's his case to prove he's bought the claim . it seems he's bought the claim. it seems at the moment that the case rests on inference and that he's trying to say that there's nowhere else credible that this information can have come from. there's an inequality of information available to him. people very rarely have explicit evidence of hacking . and in this evidence of hacking. and in this case in particular, he's resting on the failure by mirror group to use as witnesses and pr

what i'm joined now also by adam harker,- what i'm joined now also by adam harker, associate settettenctually— brett wilson llp. and adam, he has to actually prove something, teesn-t— has to actually prove something, teesn-t ne— has to actually prove something, teesn-t ne, tn— has to actually prove something, doesn't he, in court? well he does — doesn't he, in court? well he does we— doesn't he, in court? well he does. it's his— doesn't he, in court? well he does. it's his case- doesn't he, in court? well he does. it's his case to- doesn't he, in court? well he does. c i does. it's his case to prove he's bought the claim . it seems he's bought the claim. it seems at the moment that the case rests on inference and that he's trying to say that there's nowhere else credible that this information can have come from. there's an inequality of information available to him. people very rarely have explicit evidence of hacking . and in this evidence of hacking. and in this case in particular, he's resting on the failure by mirror group to use as witnesses and produce witness statements from the

let's listen to what harker said earlier. well, i will tell you myself.ally he said it's something that is needed now. you don't want to do too much. let's bring up that chart on the jobs forecast. bill dudley who was a former head of the new york fed bank thinks that there go hug -- going to have to do one or two more hikes. he thinks wages will be very important, the number of jobs important, payrolls is expected to be at 195,000 -- 195,000. keep your fingers crossed on that one. unemployment up to 3.5%. still at a 50 year low. average hourly earnings, year-over-year, expected to be at 4.4% in may, again for the second report in a row. that is well above, if you look at pre-pandemic what it used to run, even if it is down to 4.4%. the cpi has gone from 9.9% to 4.9%, everyone is suggesting there is a lot of pressure on inflation. of course bloomberg economics thinks bloomberg -- we will not see anything but a pause. jay powell is watching wages closely, but he thinks the downside risk are what have to be weighed. paul: kathleen, we have a story out from

fed governors spoke may 24 and said he thought the fed could take time to assess the data, patrick harkerrom the philadelphia fed has been arguing ardently for this. raphael bostic says they could definitely pause but if there is another move it will be a hike. he seems to be in that count -- cap as well and tom barker from the richmond fed similarly says he is open to watching the data. the up -- employment report was stronger than what was forecast and now we wait for the cpi report tuesday. they are all open to a pause. now, the hikes are the people that want to go ahead. jim bullard from the st. louis fed, loretta mester from the cleveland fed, neel kashkari from minneapolis, lori logan from dallas. they are concerned more needs to be done. that is why some think there could be a policy to center two. that is not what fed chair's want to see. we will look at what is in focus, the dot plot, every three months, the summary of economic projections it's revised. from their outlook on gdp, employment, unemployment, and inflation. then they say, this is what we will think rick -- we think r

separate speeches, separate locations today, starting with pat harker. >> we are getting close to a pointwhere we can sit for a little bit with the policy. i don't know if we are exactly there yet, but i am in the camp increasingly coming into this meeting thinking that we really should skip -- not because. i don't like the word pause -- but skip an increase. >> a decision to hold our policy rate constant at a coming meeting should not be interpreted to mean that we have reached the peak rate for this cycle. indeed, skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy. kathleen: two important points, pausing, not hiking in june, does not mean rate hikes are over. i'm sure mr. powell willie making that clear at his press conference at the end of the second day of that two-day meeting at the middle of june, and that skipping gives them time to look at the data, assess it, get more information so they know what to do next. rishaad: jobs data was way stronger-than-expected. also something of food for

we hear from fed president patrick harker this afternoon.oughts on rates we will have the issue of the financial sector turmoil with the regional banks >>> a key look at futures this morning. futures are green across the board. higher across the board at this point. the dow would open up 50 points higher for more on the trading day, we bring inbrilliant. >> thanks, frank. >> what is your thought about the debt limit deal moving forward? is that a net positive for the market is there anything you are concerned about with the deal? >> i think it is net positive. the deadline was loomging and everyone was getting nervous i don't think we will talk about this six months from now this is something that will prove fleeting >> you are hopeful with the hope in mind, what is your "wex" word of the day >> my word of the day is immaterial i couldn't which one the reason i went with immaterial is what i was saying. we took a long-term perspective. regardless of nice news today, trading day is immaterial with the long-term picture. i think immaterial is

as you mentioned, member harker said the non-farm payroll is significant.he jolts suggests the market is robust that is the factor to tip the fed to be more hawkish if we saw another strong payroll growth. >> can i ask what your outlook is for u.s. equity markets from here will we trade sideways if the fed sounds hawkish or is this a moment where we will see the pull back that a lot of people have been anticipating >> indeed. we actually have and turned cautious there are a couple of reasons for that one is, as you mentioned, recession which never seems to arrive if we have persistently strong inflation, that raises the risk the fed has to hike more to slow down growth to bring us to rece recession. we feel we will get there eventually the thing that is making us nervous in the short-term is the leadership of the performance for the index so far this year we are all aware it is almost entirely dependent upon tech and outside of the technology sector, terms are negative it doesn't give you a lot of confidence that you see continued gains from here when it do

we did also hear from the fed's president patrick harker yesterday. he did caveat, he said he can take a skip for the meeting, barring what we see the next few days and i think he was talking about a possible beat on nfp friday. manus: valerie tytel on the data ahead of the june fed meeting. let's look at your agenda for the day. u.k. mortgage approvals for april come in at 9:30 a.m., what do rates mean on that market? at 10:00 a.m. provisional euro area cpi data for may. dani: at 1:30 p.m. we get u.s. jobless claims, will they reflect strength we saw in jolts? the u.s. ism manufacturing figures for may come out at 3:00 p.m. if you are here in london, that will give us insight into the state of the economy. hike or pause, or pause, or keep hiking or just stop? a lot of options. we look at the fed's rate path following that hot job vacancies report. that will be next. ♪ i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed

federal reserve governor philip jefferson and patrick harker say the central bank could pause rate hikesng june 13th and 14th. the federal reserve beige book showed the u.s. economy showing signs of cooling in recent weeks. hiring and inflation easing slightly. what's your take on the june meeting? will the fed pause? >> our feeling is that they will. but it's a lot closer call today than it was just a week ago. the personal consumption expenditure index that inflation reading that the fed focuses on for last month actually ticked up and we're going to get another cpi reading literally the day before the federal reserve meeting on june 14th. so depending upon what happens there, the fed in our view is like throw pause but if that cpi report is very hot, then maybe the fed gives us another quarter point hike. the important point, maria, is that once the fed goes on pause, which we think is right at hand, we think that pause is going to last into next year. that is a non-consensus view. the market has this idea about an immaculate pivot by the federal reserve, that they're going to cut int

i don't know if i want to call it the jefferson pause or the harker skip.t is the right way to put snit it's really something that ultimately came from powell, but i think jefferson is going to be tagged with it so really no change at all in the outlook for the fed, despite a high headline number the revisions, of course, were also in the way of higher numbers. so that tells you that there's still real momentum in the job market >> michelle, what do you say >> so much of what you say, we were looking at that same statistic, you know, the adjusted household number that aligns it more with the establishment survey that always gathers the headlines, and that household measure adjusted was up even more in the month than with the payroll numbers showed. but there were other areas, the numbers were a little weaker the earnings numbers, getting a lot of focus the labor market is strong, but you're not seeing the wage pressures coming through from that that gives the fed more room to take this pause. so, you know, i think there is enough in this report that doesn't

committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy patrick harker spoke at a conference yesterday he said he thinks the fed can take a skip for a meeting and potentially do more tightening at every other meeting harker is a voting member of the fmoc this year i watch your show. maybe you have a reason for not watching i was ranting about mester all morning long i don't see any reason to stop the fed didn't see any reason to raise at zero. it is all rear-view mirror.ror e now. >> if you compare the speeches, they cite the same data in the prong transitory camp and now in the longer for higher camp >> maybe you did watch yesterday. >> i'm always watching >> mester yesterday. she moved the notion there would be another hike. we went from zero to 60 as of yesterday. now go back down >> exactly phil jefferson crosses the wires. i forget after that. both in the skip camp. you saw bond yields move the odds dialed back makes sense. no movement in equities. why? >> i don't know. the debt ceiling we're up 50 points on the dow. >> s&p was down .50% >> you saw

after governor jefferson and president harker?an you push back against them saying we are going to skip? tom: look at the three-month moving average, how do they pause/skip. the data is the data. jonathan: e cumulative tightening over the past 12 months. they want to look a bit more as see the damage done. when you look at the labor market data, it looks decent. look at manufacturing, manufacturing worldwide it is screaming recession. manufacturing in europe, and china, in the united states is bad. lisa: how do you make sense of the recession you are seeing in manufacturing if it is simply eating into the services sector? they will be a real question about weakness in other areas? jonathan: in 2015 we had a conversation around a conversation around recession in china. tom: you know where i am on china. the aggregation of economic data . the vix 14.2, to mean john, it is just about equity markets adjusting. jonathan: equities are up by 0.5%, let's go through the price action. futures are positive, yields are higher by a single basi

this has all been brought forward by by a tabled by councillor sebastian harker is a liberal democratlot of the critique of this plan has come from, necessarily has come from, not necessarily the idea to house asylum seekers on the base, although that is very part of the very much still part of the problem. the stopping problem. it is the stopping and the this massive problem. it is the stopping and the of this massive problem. it is the stopping and the of investors massive problem. it is the stopping and the of investors in assive problem. it is the stopping and the of investors in the ve problem. it is the stopping and the of investors in the area. worth of investors in the area. now sir edward leigh, who is the mp here, has also questioned in the commons multiple times how exactly the government is going to preserve those listed buildings on the site of scampton , how it's going to scampton, how it's going to protect, heritage protect, of course, the heritage of the famous dambusters and how it's also going to protect the safety of the people that safety of the 1000 people that al