harry enten, thank you for crunching the numbers and giving us some context. you look great. we'll be right back. >> thank you, sir. new york. our first for thicker-looking brows. brow fiber extensions... in a stick. brows look thicker. instantly. new brow extensions crayon. only from maybelline new york.

that's why we bring in the wizard of odds, harry enten. harry, what do you see?e a good-looking man looking back at me. but take a look at this. there were two polls that came out today from "the wall street journal" and quinnipiac university. what do we see in hose polls? we see it go in the wrong direction for the president, right? those leads have expanded out to double digits. so it's going in the wrong direction, for president trump. and when the numbers are going in the wrong direction, you say adios amigos to your campaign manager. >> the idea that this is as bad as it can get for trump and he's not in that bad of shape? >> i disagree with that, entirely. and part of the reason why is, you know, why are the poll numbers going down? it's because of the coronavirus pandemic. look at his approval rating, this month versus last month. what do you see? you see his approval rating drop into the 30s in both the poll numbers. and that, to me, is a signal, right? this is the most important issue of the campaign. i spoke with you a few week tss ago. i said this is t

joining us now, cnn's senior politics writer and analyst, harry enten. good sign for the president. >> no, i would not think it's a good sign for the president. i mean, just look at the history of how georgia has voted in the past couple of presidential elections. what you see is that georgia has not voted for a democratic nominee for president since 1992. the last time president trump won it by five points, so this is just one of the many signs that we're seeing that the map seems to be moving away from president trump. this is not a state that would be competitive, unless joe biden was doing reasonably well nationwide. >> i'm glad you brought up the nationwide point, because states don't happen in a vacuum, right, harry? it's not just georgia that's moving. what you're seeing here is an overall shift, yes? >> yes, withat's exactly right. take a look at this. this is a electoral map if all of the polling averages were perfectly correct in predicting or suggesting who's going to win, we have over 100 days to go, so this map may change. but this looks a lo

let's take it to the wizard of odds, harry enten. ive me three reasons to believe that the president really is in trouble. >> i'll give you four reasons why, and that's besides the polls that we're looking at. number number two, the coronavirus. the pandemic. mont most voters think he is failing on that. number three, race relations. most voters feel he is failing on that. and, four, which i think is so important, is obviously, when it comes to the economy, we are seeing voters not necessarily loving what he is doing on that. >> what do you see in the numbers, that you find to be so damning, even in context of polls just being a moment in time? >> yeah. i think what's so important, you know, in a state like georgia, is that the polls, generally speaking, at the end of the campaign, have been really, really good, right? if you look back, four years ago, what you saw was that the final polls had donald trump ahead in that state by five. he won by five. if you look at the final polls, just two years ago in the governor's race, what did y

the wizard of odds, harry enten, is here.now look, i'm a seller of poll numbers, especially this far out in a fluid situation, but -- but -- at this stage in the game, when has a first-term president had numbers like this and won? >> the one example, chris, was back in 1948, harry truman against thomas dewey. truman was down double digits to dewey at this point. it's really the only example i have going back where there's anything like this. you know, if you think about carter in '80, he lost, he was down double digits at this point. bush in '92 was down. the only example really is truman in '48, who, of course, shocked the world. which is what trump has to do. >> everybody remembers that for truman holding up the picture of "the chicago tribune" getting it wrong and saying dewey had won. what can you point to that might make trump like truman in this? >> i mean, the day, the only thing that will make trump like truman is if he gets a better handle of the coronavirus. i mean, look at these numbers from florida, right? do you

the wizard of odds, harry enten, is here. i'm a seller of poll numbers. in the game, when has a first-term president had numbers like this and won? >> the one example, chris, was back in 1948, harry truman against thomas dewey. it's really the only example that i have going back where there's anything like this. if you think about carter in '80, he was down double digits at this point. bush in '92 was down in double digits. the only example is truman in '48. >> everybody remembers that for truman holding up the picture of "the chicago tribune" getting it wrong and saying dewey had won. what can you point to that might make trump like truman in this? >> i mean, look, at the end of the day the only thing that will make trump like truman is if he gets a better handle of the coronavirus. i mean, do you approve or disapprove of the job trump is doing on the coronavirus? the april numbers to now. and what you essentially see is that his approval rating was at 46% back in april. it's dropped to 37 % now, and at the same time, biden's lead in florida has expanded

cnn's senior politics writer and analyst, harry enten joins me now. y, one of the very first things people see when they see polls out of florida is, oh, the polls were wrong in 2016, which is a canard to cabin wibegin wi. but that aside, why is what we're seeing in florida this morning different than 2016? >> you hit it right on, john. if you look at the quinnipiac university poll that was out yesterday, you saw that former vice president joe biden was up by 13 points and over 50%. compare that to the quinnipiac university poll that came out at this exact same point back in 2016. what'd you see? you saw that hillary clinton was actually trailing in the state by 5 and not even close to 50 pk50%. the fact is when you're looking at the poll numbers like down in florida, you just see that the vice president is in a significantly better position than clinton was at this point. >> how does this connect or relate to what we're seeing in the rest of the country? >> this is so important. three fox news polls calm out yesterday from minnesota, michigan, and pen

let's bring in the wizard of odds, harry enten. hello, wiz. i wish you the best for independence day weekend. i'm sorry you shaved. >> you know what? my mother gave me a call. she said, harry, you have to shave if you're going to go on television with christopher, and you know what? like a good jewish boy, i listened to my mother. >> well, you have a great mom and you are a smart son, no question about it. so, first, let's establish the why. the covid is no more a question mark. this election is going to be a referendum, if not of the man, of the moment, true? >> i think that's absolutely true. i think, you know, if you look at the polling that we have right now, what you see is that joe biden is the one who is doing the best right now on covid. and that's -- we've seen across polls. there was a pew research poll out this week that showed that exact thing. and so essentially, you know, this should not be surprising to me. >> where is slide two, may and june in the gallup poll to show the nation's most important problem among adults? >> yeah, an

cnn senior politics writer harry enten here on the most important issues of the day. voters will choose with in november, the president under water. >> you have that right. the ipsos poll is the worst one i have seen on the coronavirus so far taken over the last four months, but you know, it's important obviously to put this into context because the president is going to be running against somebody else in formerat joe biden and when it comes to the issue of the coronavirus and you match up biden versus trump, who is trusted more on the issue? the former vice president is trusted by double digits and also on race relations. the other big issue of the day. we see the former vice president trusted by double digits. it's difficult to imagine that the president will win unless something changes. >> the president is trying to turn the focus to the idea of law and order. i say trying because there's evidence it's not working. why? >> there's a lot of evidence, there was a great poll taken last month by "the washington post," and it was asking do you want a president focusin