look into this i'm joined now by dr eric finkel doing an epidemiologist a health economist at the harvard chan school of public health thank you for joining us doctor is this test for real it almost sounds too good to be true. it's definitely real and these are the technology has a bolt a lot in the last few years to make this possible and i'm still waiting for it to see some of the accuracy measures because i think those still have to be peer reviewed and published but any test right now is much better than the one we have right now which takes almost a whole day turnaround and is only 30 to 50 percent accurate so this test it is on a rapid scale can immediately tell people you need to be quarantined or not is would be infinitely better and faster in terms of helping us contain this fire so what we have now. ok what i'd like to ask about president trump because he had 1st was saying this wasn't really a problem then suddenly he began to take stronger measures under criticism most recently of the 2 trillion dollar bailout which came from the senate and then telling general motors to make a ventilators so that'

world's leading epidemiologists, who runs the center for communicable disease dynamics at harvard school of public health. we're going to be speaking with one of the world's most accomplished scientists when it comes to understanding viral dynamics and developing lifesaving antiviral treatment. the first results -- the results of the first major study of a potential drug treatment for coronavirus was published today. the results of that study were not good, but i want to hear from someone who knows these things about treatment possibilities and also about potential technological innovation that might get us some way forward on testing in this country. we're also going to be speaking tonight with a ph.d. biologist who was the white house official in charge of global health security and emerging infectious disease threats under president obama and under president trump for a while. i should tell you that she no longer has that job, and no one has that job now because president trump inexplicably eliminated that job within the federal government for reasons that remain still unclear. but she's going to be j

a short while ago i spoke with professor marc lipsitch, director of epidemiology at harvard school of public health fatalities in the us. i think it is unfortunately possible. i think we are, in the us, beginning to discover probably a situation not that different from that in many other countries which have discovered it sooner. which is that there has been a lot of ongoing transmission over the last few weeks and we are seeing cases, and when we see a death, unfortunately, that means there are probably many other cases behind it, that were not so severe. here in the uk and in many other countries, the government is focusing making containment work. is containment actually a realistic strategy? i think containment is increasingly looking unlikely to succeed, well, it is almost certainly unlikely to succeed globally. i think in some countries that don't yet have a lot of reported cases, containment efforts are still justified, as we try to slow things down. but i think increasingly we are also going to have to combine those efforts with mitigation efforts that include these sorts of things you just

me now from florida is dr michael mina, a professor of epidemiology and immunology at harvard school of public healthjoining us. the world health organization says this virus pandemic is accelerating. that is not too optimistic, not a great outlook. what does that mean? dr michael mina, outlook. what does that mean? drmichaelmina, can outlook. what does that mean? dr michael mina, can you hear us? it looks like the line might bea us? it looks like the line might be a little bit dodgy there. i can here you now, yes. thank you. the world health organization calling the pandemic, they are saying it is exhilarating, which doesn't sound too great, what exactly does that mean? yes, so this pandemic, it is accelerating in many places and this is why we are putting on these very strict measures of social isolation and trying to separate people so they cannot infect each other. but it has certainly picked up steam and this is really happening really across the globe and some places are starting to get it under control. we are seeing it really ta ke under control. we are seeing it really take off emphatically

michael mina is assistant professor at the centre for communicable disease dynamics at harvard school of public healthh for your time. i can only imagine how busy you are. the president is sounding a very different note on the pandemic these days. what do you make of the current situation? well, i think it is becoming readily apparent that the current situation was starting to get out of hand in the united states. we saw this begin on the west coast, in seattle, and it has swept across the united states in a predictable fashion. and i think, finally, we are starting to see the president begin to really ta ke to see the president begin to really take it seriously, and personally understand the gravity of this situation. and i think that that type of leadership is really what's going to get us through this. we hear a lot about herd immunity. just put me right on this, if you would. as i understand it, it is called a novel coronavirus because it is new to us. we don't have a natural immunity to it. so the hope is that people will build—up an immunity, perhaps by getting it. but there is a concern, isn't

of that percentage of the population that we're not going to be infected ok well the harvard school of public health. how did seem to agree with using it was it was but why is it then that the b.b.c. certainly is reporting new the science is changed that's why boris johnson has changed his advice to the british population as regards going out of doors so the imperial results that the government is changing your goal of building material college. they are new in themselves but the substance of what they're saying is precisely what the lancet was saying 2 months ago is precisely what nassim taleb and i have been saying for weeks on end a back of an envelope calculation shows that hundreds of thousands are at risk from this virus if you let it hit most of the population do the same and data brokers are the main broadcaster in this country is wrong about the science having changed the problem with the b.b.c. coverage is that they've been and the i.t.v. coverage is that they've been far too deferential towards the state they've said things like for example well boris johnson is for only following the sci

bring in the director to the center of communicable disease, professor of epidemiology of harvard school of public health. the elderly we just heard are most vulnerable, they said people over 60. that's a lot of people out there and that others who have some serious underlying health-related issues are very vulnerable as well. how worried should these people be? >> i think those are the groups of people as was said by several of the federal officials that really should take extra precautions because the risk to them, if they get infected is -- it's too early to say, as sanjay gupta just mentioned what the risk of getting infected is but as a precaution those are groups of people who should be most taking efforts to avoid it. >> what was your basic takeaway from what we just heard from the vice president and his coronavirus task force? >> i was really encouraged that the lack of testing is now being really atressed head on in a big way. it was a real log jam for a long time and it sounds that they finally got the message that it need to be moved up by a very large factor. i'm concerned concerned that what

will be sorry that we haven't. >> marc, the director of the center of communicable disease dynamics at the harvard school public healththank you for your work and thank you for taking time to talk to the public about it. >>> up next one of the foremost doctors in infectious disease, and particularly in antiviral medication joins us live next. stay with us. stay with us ♪ we would walk on the sidewalk ♪ ♪ all around the wind blows ♪ we would only hold on to let go ♪ ♪ blow a kiss into the sun ♪ we need someone to lean on ♪ blow a kiss into the sun ♪ all we needed somebody to lean on ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ all we need is someone to lean on ♪ >> woman: what's our we were on a camping trip... ...when our windshield got a chip. >> man: we drove to safelite autoglass for a same-day repair. >> woman: and with our insurance, it was no cost. really? >> man: safelite has service we can trust. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ with a relaxing commute. a nice long lunch. and how about those skyscrapers? yep it doesn't get much better than this. run with us on a john deere gator. because if the path to success was easy, it would

my colleagues at harvard school of public health and elsewhere. n analysis of where the successes are in china in terms of limiting the extent of the epidemic and the number of patients who are hospitalized, in intensive care unit versus where it's bad, where it's a serious issue. the key is this. if sustained transmission goes on for several weeks before it's picked up, you have a terrible problem in terms of a big surge problem with large numbers of individuals who become hospitalized and in the intensive care units as opposed to those where cities where you're quickly on top of it. you can rapidly get your arms around it, do the social isolation. it makes a huge difference. the fact that we've allowed this situation to go on weeks longer than we should have could have various serious consequences in pockets of the united states. for me, that's a top priority. my point is, we only have maybe a couple of weeks left to get our act together in terms of doing that testing. >> okay. is that possible? i mean, how did we get here? whose fault is this fa

my colleague at harvard school of public health together with the student a doctoral student, did an analysis of the chinese cities in terms of how severe the epidemic is, with the extreme example being wuhan, where 9,000 people wound up in severely ill, with 2,000 in the icu versus a city like guangjo, where there was only 20. where there was 20. big difference, right? it looks like it's primary due to how quickly you got on top of things after sustained community transmission started. so in wuhan, they let it go before six weeks before they implemented control and testing, whereas where they only had 20 cases, one week. what's the lesson learned for the united states? we're now about three weeks into this in terms of sustained community transmission. we had our first case of community transmission around the end of april and so subtract a week before then. so we're getting to the point where because we're not doing adequate diagnostic testing and implementing those very important control measures that he pointed out, we're in a situation we could risk being closer to wuhan and we ca

mina, happens to be assistant professor at harvard school of public health and a score member of the harvard centre for communicable disease. i would like to begin with you and specifically your reaction to this stay at home order for 40 million soles in the state of california. >> i think that it's the right thing to do at this point in time, in particular in the absence of good testing and wide scale testing. we don't really know where we are in the course of this epidemic. and so these what seem like somewhat extreme measures are the one way that we really know that we can stop the fast transmission of this virus that seems to be really sweeping across the globe. >> people are already asking questions as people are eager to do. if california is doing this, does that mean almost by association that new york city, such a dense concentrated urban center, should be doing that same thing at minimum? >> i think new york city probably should be. i mean, it is an extraordinary dense city as you say, and this virus is very likely to transmit widely throughout a city like that and really ac

. >> david williams is a professor at the harvard school of public health. >> and what makes it even challenging is that the disadvantaged groups who we just talked about are the one who begin this process being more vulnerable. because they have earlier onset of disease, more likely to face chronic, ongoing stressors in multiple domains of their lives. so we are looking at those most in need being most likely to be disadvantaged. we have to keep trying and doing things. so is it likely that people will die from lack of access to ventilators? probably. does that mean as an individual patient they're likely to die? no. because we're not gonna quit trying. >> so, i understand why you're fighting me on this. you don't want to let anybody believe that the medical community is just gonna give up. and i'm not suggesting that you will. but i am suggesting in the strongest terms that we don't have adequate supplies to meet the likely demand. you don't think that's an unfair statement, do you? given my knowledge of the situation that's not an unfair statement. but i'm not a supply guy. i'm a

from boston is asaf bitton who is a primary—care physician and researcher at the harvard university's school of public healtht is social or physical distancing in saving lives? social and physical distancing is one of the most effective tools we have right now to mitigate the spread of this pandemic. it's really a tool that when operating in a co—ordinated, aggressive fashion across the country, can save probably or reduce probably over 90% of cases. that is a huge figure. a question for you, how do you, in yourdaily question for you, how do you, in your daily life, go about the moment practising physical 01’ the moment practising physical or social distancing? well, it's a huge change. it's something fundamentally different from the life that we we re different from the life that we were used to, even a couple of weeks ago. at its base, what this means is keeping physical separation between you and people outside of your household. so that means when you go outside, you need to maintain at least two metres or six feet from other people. you don't sit on park benches, you don't sit on park benches, you don't

michael mina, he's an assistant professor of epidemiology at harvard's th khan school of public health medical director of harvard medical school. thank you so much for being with me. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about these cases in new york, as we mentioned six now infected in new york. what do you do if you even suspect that you're feeling sick, someone in your family is showing what you perceive to be symptoms, what do you do? >> i think right now testing remains fairly limited across the united states, although it's expanding very quickly, and i think the best thing to do at the moment is if you're feeling very mildly ill, i think the best thing is to just stay at home, try to self-quarantine, but if symptoms progress and you start to actually think that you need to see a doctor, then i would suggest doing so and potentially call before hand to give them a heads-up you're coming. >> how about we put this in perspective with the seasonal flu. on the one hand, there are far more cases of the flu than coronavirus by a long shot, but the world health organization says coronaviru

there is a modeling that is put together by the harvard school of public health, it's called the lipchitzo models are saying the same story, which is that if we do not halt the spread of this virus in new york city by march 23rd, that's eight or nine days away, by the beginning of april, maybe the first two weeks, somewhere in that range, new york city's hospitals will be overrun and that means that you will see a piece of paper go up on the emergency department of some of our major hospitals saying no more vacancies, we can't take you. >> yikes. >> that's exactly when you will start to see a surge in cases, of critical cases, because it's a lagging indicator. i don't want to get too technical, but a virus spreads exponentially. there's an exponential curve right there. we're right here in that curve. every day that goes by, that curve starts to increase dramatically. and if you look at the critical cases, it's seven days behind the infection curve. if you have that infection curve going up, which is where it's going right now, seven days from now is where whyou'll have the reflecti infle

this is something that i've been digging into for a couple of days a professor at the harvard school of public health tweeted about the poesh shortage in the extraction kits that are necessary for doing these tests. i checked with the major manufacturer that said it's having some pressure on its ability to supply this because of the huge demand they're ramping up capacity for manufacturing in two different countries. they're hiring more workers. and they said right now they're able to supply to the u.s. as well, i've been checking in with the commercial manufacturers and trying to figure out from their perspective if there is going to affect them. my understanding from last quarter, they are not seeing this kind of problem because they're using their own laboratory developed test. this is a concern, certainly we are also hearing about the cdc making news to increase testing kpachlt, as well but clearly an ongoing problem, guys >>well, meg. thank you. >>> there's a headline we're working to confirm from bloomberg. that is black stone asking its companies hurt by the virus to tap credit lines not much

general brigham as well as harvard school of public health down in new york and also in italy and we'reg our data very carefully to see how it compares to some of the curves in italy there were some parts of italy that were very hard hit and others that had milder experiences. and so we're trying to get a sense as quickly as we can as to where the boston experience is fitting. it's too soon to draw any immediate conclusions, but we're also, as you said, one of the places here in the united states that's doing the trial with rendecevir, the drug that was tried with ebola we hope it will help against this virus we're participating in those trials >> multi-faceted response that we're trying to put together here globally, doctor. you mentioned 3d printers and surgical masks and you got a huge push on that. is that bearing fruit? >> it's too soon to know i believe we need to know the ingenuity of this country to save as many people as we can. we're evaluating a whole host of ideas that have come up within our organization and outside like making masks with 3d printers, using construction mas

harvard t.the -- t.h. chan school of public health, thank you for talking with us. >> thank you for having me. >> woodruff: history of a ve different kinwas made today, when japan and the international olympic committee decided to postpone this summer's games to 2021. john yang looks at what drove that decision and the ramifications. >> yang: judy, today's decision affects thousands of athletes around the world, and creates huge logistical headaches for organizers. christine brennan of "usa today" has covered every ol games, both summer and winter, since 1984. she joins us by skype fr washington, d.c. christine, how much of this decision was driven by the athletes' n concerns about their own health and welfare? >> john, all of it. this was stunning. when leaders don't lead, the athletes filled the void. and the international olympic committee president, thomas bach, is actually a former athlete, former olympic gold dalist. one would have thought he would the athlete's probe magnitude of he did not. he sat in his ivory tower and kept saying, we're not tking about postpoment. we're not talking about cancella

school of public health. off of the national university of singapore and in cambridge massachusetts in the u.s. talk to in great cats she's the assistant faculty director of the harvard global health institute welcome to you all and funks for joining us are seeing i'm off 1st of all i know we have to ask you this you have at the moment treating people with a corona virus how is that how challenging is that for you. actually in hong kong we have repartee increasing number of the cases we have 1st get out there as you compliment cases in early february eliot and the rest of the world because that's the case importer for main there however we can keep the number going very very still leave for a long while till recently all of those arrests in country. and. hong kong people who say in it was foreign countries they turned back to hong kong and we have a rapid rise of them to cases we have much more number of equal to cases and also staff who have some noble in fact that cases but at the hospital the isolation facilities are almost nil but most of the cases out quite well because the i have good cost how but we learn that these start to spread through the local setting an

children's hospital and harvard medical school, a bunch of technicians started a website which lets you submit symptom and testing information. the goal is to allow public health and individuals to be to understand the spread of this pandemic and be able to allocate resources and get ahead of this and fill in the data gaps caused by our lack of national testing. >> not to be doubtful, but are you concerned that people may be inputting data that may not necessarily be reflective of a coronavirus or a covid conthe result, the data appears we have a cluster that's not necessarily accurate. >> well, to begin with, a large part is based on the medical research at boston's children's hospital by john brownstein and a trained epidemiologist himself. i'm not a medical doctor. that said, what the website trying to do is to work closely similar to flu near you.org and helping the cdc get ahead of the flu pandemic. we use the same concept there with covid near you. you will note that we are not making any predictions or anything at this time because we need to get enough samples before we can state there's some sort of correlation that we can draw towards. >> something t

of the outbreak. he graduated from georgetown university, and harvard business school. rear admiral steven red is the deputy director for public health science and implementation science at the centers for disease control and prevention. in this capacity, dr. red is responsible for state and local readiness, emergency operations, select agents and toxin, and the nation's cache of emergency medical counter measures. prior to this role, he was the director of the influenza coordination unit and also the incident commander for the 2009 h1n1 pandemic response. dr. red received his bachelor's degree his bachelors degree in history from my alma mater, princeton university, medical degree with honors at the emery university school of medicine. he trained in medicine at johns hopkins hospital and completed the two-year epidemic services training program at the cdc. our third witness is mr. william bill farrar who is the executive assistant commission for operations support at u.s. customs and border protection. previously mr. farrerrara serves acting executive director in field support where he was responsible for managing an operating budge