jonathan: should we talk about this from jan hatzius. we are now assigned a roughly 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, 35% in the next 24 months. shall we call that a tepid recession warning from goldman over the weekend? lisa: i would say, if it is surprising, it is surprising it is on a higher chance, given the markets and the speculation. the fact that it is not higher has copy both attention. but 35% -- you can say 100% chance the next 10 years? jonathan: usually they say it is a 40% chance. the words of goldman, hardpacked to a soft landing. tom: this is the value out of surveillance, and you can see it in china gdp. dr. hatzius knows there is the official recession, two quarters negative gdp, it is a lot of inertial force to get to that outcome. the other way to look at it is jeffrey frankel of harvard suggested is more than a simple formula, and you have to fix in other things like labor. hatzius was on set, and he was heated about an overheated job economy. how do you have a recession with a hatzius overheated job e

we have jan hatzius, chief economist on the impact of rising interest rates on housing.nd kristina partsinevelos on a rough day for chinese internet stocks just want to point out, the dow is down 160 points or so we have lost all the gains and then some. we're looking at some pretty broad weakness the only sectors in the s&p 500 that remain positive, energy, oil prices are jumping and financials, on that reaction to bank of america and some strength in the regionals. utilities, industrials, health care moving south. staples as well. the defensive names and even technology dipped into the red take a look at housing stocks. under pressure again today as new data shows home builder sentiment dropped to a seven-month low as the higher mortgage rates keep going up goldman sachs is out with a note saying while a significant increase in mortgage rates has weighed on housing, the extreme supply-demand imbalance in today's market will likely dampen the hit on housing activity joining us, jan hatzius. so jan, what do you expect as far as the housing market outlook over the next ye

we will do that with jan hatzius of goldman sachs. a recession call in the mix.eed to get to that. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: good morning on tv and radio. rounding up the trading week with gains. we will see if this sticks going into the opening bell. treasuries up around a basis point. some drama on the week, higher around 30 basis points. the curve positive much of the week. the curve flatter this morning. looking ahead to next week, cpi next week. 8.4% is your median estimate, tom keene. tom: stunning statistic. the duration of the inflation. remember, it was going to go up and come

tom: this goes to jan hatzius the other day talking about a fully employed america.ople have jobs, is anybody talking about reduced labor? lisa: no, no one is talking about that. people are wondering how much we are going to get an overheated kind of feel to it, but we are looking at a participation rate that is still pretty low. those people are not coming back in. we had expect that to be the case given the fact that we already seem to be shifting towards end, phase -- towards endemic phase. tom: want to drive towards the close with netflix earnings as we begin the postbank earnings season. the haves and have-nots of revenue growth. we saw that with j&j today, j&j with some challenging forward view. you wonder if that will be a trend in the equity markets. the equity market is all over the place. i don't know really what to say. all red slightly and fractionally on the screen. the number one thing all of us are looking at today is weakness in the japanese yen. is it possible we will see ¥130? a timely conversation, "balance of power" at noon today, the former treas