as professor haykel pointed out, there isn't an obvious or agreed successor.'re seeing is that what we've got now is him and chaos. not him or chaos. so i think that card is no longer really a strong card. >> warner: professor, this sort of takeover of the city on the southern coast, the government seemed to hint that this was al qaeda and the arabian peninsula connected or something. yet there seems a lot of the skepticism about that. >> yeah, there is. you know, as ambassador bodine has just mentioned i think he's overplayed his hand. this may be just another attempt again to use the al qaeda card. it's not clear that in fact it is al qaeda that has taken over this city. if at all. >> warner: who else would it be? >> oh, it could be local tribesmen, southern... there's a southern secessionist movement. there's also a man who is the defender of the old leader who is one of the big leaders in that town and has his own men. >> warner: back to you, ambassador, how does this... how is this likely to play out? >> i don't think anyone has the real answer on that. i