where i see headwinds is in non-market-based finance.re complex systems like the united states. at the end of a long cycle with a lot of distortion in risk-taking through monetary policy, there will be some risks that have been taken that as monetary policy continues to normalize will come to the fore, and that is where we need to be prepared. francine: we understand the linkage, which we did not in 2008. if there is something ugly happening will we be able to , intervene quicker? axel: we just wrote a report in the group of 30 and we said yes, , in principle we understand the linkages, but some of these early measures in central banking have by now been much more restricted. for example, require parliamentary approval. if you remember, one that was discussed was not passed by the u.s. congress, and had to go back a second time to be passed. we know what to do, but it is master getting parliaments behind these measures if we were it does if we were to embark on them again. the financial crisis has shown the early intervention was unpopul

steadily, i'mn sure that is not a massive headwind.s long as the euro does not look especially as -- expensive, it has come down off its recent ties, and europe is a beneficiary of lower oil prices in terms of supporting demand. get not think you need to to concerned about dollar and the cyclical turn that will boost earnings in europe, rather than the exchange rates. vonnie: jeff comes out and says that he has seen europe as a value track. john: there are a lot of things going on. ecby has got problems, the is no longer buying corporate debt and is no longer buying new qe. francis ms and germany is doing that -- france is a mass and germany is doing badly. itre are lots of issues, but is cheaply priced. opportunitiesare if the environment starts to improve and if the trade story becomes less negative. ask youdid any client about these new and emerging markets like china and saudi arabia. what do you say to them? john: the broader the investment opportunity, the better. investor andglobal you have a free mandate and you are looking for

there will be some challenges, there will be headwinds, but i think 10 years after the crisis, usuallyhese populist arguments are getting more headwinds as the economy emerges from the crisis, and i think that is what we are starting to see. you know, if you look at the french election or some others, yes, there are nationalist movements, and there is populism, but internationalism has scored some points also recently. but i expect as the economy continues to heal from the crisis, many of the angry voters that look at the crisis and how they have been hurt will feel the new developments in the economy work for their better life and are starting to feel less angry about the crisis. francine: what do you think the future for these big, european, universal, global banks is? are some going to fold? are we going to see consolidation? axel: you will see consolidation info industry. you will still have calls for a national champion. i don't think that is going to work. what europe needs in order to catch up with american firms is european champions, banks that are larger in size. francine: cr

lot of people talk about facebook being dead money at this point, between this kind of regulatory headwind, the fact only people's grandparents are regular users what do you think? >> everybody else is using instagram including myself. everybody is cool then i guess. here is the thing. kparts mentioned it, record fine, a funny name or term to use because that is probably, facebook is going to make probably in q4 $16 billion. looks to me, whatever this record fine is, let's say $100 million probably doesn't really matter. what is funny the ftc is definitely sharpening their teeth here. they have other companies probably in their sites. google as well down the road. this probably isn't the end of the road what they're doing as far as privacy fines.

i think the headwinds that exist for europe remain pretty strong. compared to the rest of the world where we see a broad growth path we see europe underperforming that in general. there are some one-offs which won't occur. the change to testing of autos won't impact in 2019 that had a big effect on german gdp. some things will help. >> autos one of the most -- worst performing most unloved sectors in europe, part of the weak data is driven by this one-off, these emission standards, changes, valuations extremely low. the sector is facing a number of cyclical and structural headwinds. is this the time for bargain hunters to come in and pick up the auto stocks? is it still too early? >> for us it is time for selective positioning in the auto sector. our clients do hold shares in bmw and renault for that reason. renault gives you a cheap play for obvious reasons with the carlos ghosn saga going on in the background bmw again is a solid company in the long term in terms of its cash generation and return on capital. all the while we have got that secular

he did mention another potential headwind as one major item goes away, maybe another appears with respect to the shutdown? >> well to john williams' point and several of the big brokerage houses on wall street today came out and said they know at this point the shutdown will shave at least maybe half percentage point or more off q1 growth. that is from where we stand today. assuming on tuesday after the three-day holiday that the government reopened. so there is something to be said if you look at university of michigan consumer sentiment report. as your other two guests speaking to uncertainty, starting to take its toll. same situation with the shutdown. hard to believe given where markets are, given they want to go up. its clear there is upward momentum. hard to believe where markets are, charles, we have confidence back to where it was before the presidential election. its lowest it has been in years. this is really kind of shocking, what drove that confidence hit though is that people hearing

there are still some currency headwinds out there. >> what about business in the cloud?> still growing, still growing fast. it has been a driver for amazon for quite a wild. another thing worth highlighting is their advertising business, their new higher-margin stuff is growing pretty quickly, but it has not been enough to take investors' eyes off of that weaker guidance. >> growth seemed to be coming from outside the u.s. where subscription fees are lower. how problematic is that? >> it is unclear. subscription services is another area that has investors arching their eyebrows. there were some changes in how amazon recognizes prime subscription revenues. unclear what that change means for the health of their prime sort of key tois encouraging people to shop on amazon. >> thank you. financialg in tigris partners cio. give us your key takeaway from the amazon report. >> another good quarter. they had record growth this holiday season, record number of people signed up for amazon prime. recordw -- they sold a amount of alexa audio interfaces, and i think they had a number

the numbers not too terrible, but a lot of headwinds coming their way.gulatory and political pressures. some are downgrading the stock after the earnings. thank you very much, dani burger with your movers. up next, we talk about the european growth story. italy is said to be entering a recession after a slowdown in france. where should investors be placing their money? this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back. 22 minutes into your trading day this thursday. the picture across equity markets making solid gains in particular, up by 1.1%. let's talk about growth in europe, euro area economic confidence extends its worst losing streak in a decade. italy's prime minister has admitted that the economy probably slipped into recession at the end of 2018. in germany only narrowly awarded after geeking out modest growth. let's talk to maria from state street. it is the italian growth story i will start with. heading into recession, it seems. recession, how far does this recessionary bug spread? europe has been our least favorite region for most of last year. . we a

. >> that's probably not going away any time soon so i think that's clearly a potential headwind i'll mention this because, listen, there were a lot of good things here. the other products which they break out, $7.3 billion, that's not insignificant. so when you layer in other products and services, now you're talking about close to -- $19 billion over $81 billion, now you're talking about 21%, 22% of revenue so you are growing on the right lines. >> the problem is, though, for apple, and i'm still a shareholder, is that it was never given that valuation that you could brag about it was never given that growth valuation. it was sort of given a stable valuation. now if we start to say, okay, it's just okay, what happens to valuation? i don't think it's going to go anywhere, but it's certainly not going up you're not getting multiple expansion. >> that's why the conference call is so important because they have to give you some hope. hey, you know what, we are going to grow and turn this company from a hardware company into a services company and it's happening right now. unless they do

companies can accept more headwinds due to the u.s. -- due to the slowdown in china. if you like bloomberg news, check us out on the radio. this is bloomberg. the white house's top economic advisor has cautioned more u.s. companies can accept more headwinds due to the u.s. -- due to the slowdown in china. if you like bloomberg news, check us out on the radio. this is bloomberg. ? emily: apple ceo tim cook is blaming trade tensions in china for not helping its forecast. now one of trump's advisors says there may be more pain to come. he told cnn that it is not just going to be apple. "i think there are a heck of a lot of companies in china that will be watching their earnings be downgraded next year until we get a deal with china." that puts a lot of pressure on china to make a deal. joining us from washington, alex. does this news from apple, you know, put more pressure on the president to make a deal or not? alex: i think there are two ways to look at it. there is the white house way of looking at it, which is that problem u.s. companies have is china's economy is sl

the strong euro acting as a headwind. the dollar is down. same for the pound.ll a reasonably positive session. the defensive end of the market got sold more aggressively today. to theorget to tune in show at the top of the hour. you can find us on digital radio. jon ferro and i will be taking you through all of the market action wrapping up both sides of the atlantic. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: live from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. u.s.d in sight to the partial government shutdown now in its 17th day. the deadlock comes after two days of staff level meetings led by vice president mike pence. president trump says the administration is planning a steel barrier on the mexican border rather than a concrete wall. bloombergned by congressional reporter in washington. any updates you can give us? >> no meetings planned today. both sides are hunkered down. trump has been suggesting a steel structure instead of concrete wall as a compromise. democrats are saying we will not give into hostage takers, reopen the government, and then

yes, there's some headwinds earnings.ofile has slowed somewhat, but we still think there is great opportunity in asia. we like to look at markets that are unloved and underappreciated. owns, and it was a tough year in asia last year in the equity market. on the growth side, there's plenty of opportunity for asian markets to surprise us on the upside. shery: how much will it help if we see a weaker dollar given we are headed towards the decision? a lot of people are expecting the fed to come out with some announcement of a pause this year. sarah: i think that is a huge driver in fact, with the weaker u.s. dollar, that is again for emerging markets and asia. that is something we have been watching very carefully for the direction of the dollar and was the fed ponds, that should be very welcome news for markets in this part of the world. haidi: sarah, i want to throw up showing one of the biggest concern, biggest unknowns. even if we get some resolution, the stalling of export growth in this part of the world -- part of this

we know about the different headwinds we are seeing in the global economy. we just had an introduction about the ecb and whether they are exiting their stimulus program at the wrong time with storm clouds of a possible recession looming. i know you do not comment on central-bank policy, but what is your view on the weakening french economy right now, which the bankratcheted up? expects 0.2% growth instead of 0.4% growth in the first quarter. >> i think the global picture as well as the european or french level is the deceleration in expansion. we are really very far away. i think that is important to keep in mind, to really understand what is underway. we are seeing an expansion. down.recasts are revised , the lastst for 2019 forecast is 1.7. still significant growth. you look at financial stability, what is your main concern? deceleration this of growth and the uncertainty you were mentioning. the downside risk create challenge for the financial -- and a number of factors. .he escalation of trade tension brexit.europe with >> does greece concern you? that i

but when you specifically weigh that against specific programs, you run into serious headwinds. you can say it was a missed opportunity, but it means the conservative groups in washington and conservative leaders in congress have to do a better job of persuading the american people this is indeed an issue. it is something we are giving a lot of thought to rigth now. how can you do something that captures people's attention on the spending issue that begins to put them in your camp? right now it is a tremendous challenge. >> you mentioned it was a challenge and a headwinds you face there. is that they lost cause at this -- is that a lost cause at this point? tim: at some point it will become such a threat for the country economically that we will not have any choice, right? i don't want to throw in the towel on it. i want to be part of a group of people saying this is something that is important. if you give up on it, if we give up on it as a conservative movement, then at that point when crisis hits, we don't have a lot of credibility to say what to do. so it is important we don

i think there are lots of headwinds. what would be your safe haven of choice? >> i think the yen has become safe haven of choice in the currency market when things really turn sour. why?: >> historically that is where the flow has tended to go. if you look at the contrast between the swiss franc and the japanese yen, the national bank have a policy. the dollar behaved as a safe haven for a lot of investors. that was an environment where you are -- the u.s. was getting stronger. remove that and the yen becomes the primary safe haven. nejra: your target for year-end is 105. you have one 03 over the next 12 months. in terms of japanese equity market, a stronger yen is not going to help low inflation in japan. we have yet more data today. oil prices as well. can you make a case for japanese equities beyond the low valuations? japan stocks have been very attractive for a long time. fundamentals are -- japan has been historically known as a low efficiency market. the has changed. have lots of cash flow. they have met negative debt. the underlying fundamentals are inc

and two, trade has potential now to become more of a talent versus a headwind.e kind of big risk to the upside that we are not factoring in europe? nela: right now, we are seeing risk as fairly balanced, but it is important to remember that because valuation has come down, they are now trading at 15 times ,arnings instead of 16.7 times historical average. stocks are no longer expensive, so we see this as a good opportunity to diversify the filling gaps in the portfolio and to invest internationally because of the discount, because they are trading so far removed from their own histories relative to the u.s., so there is a lot of opportunity in the that uncertainty is kind of masking and clouding for the long-term investor, but they are there. alix: you are positive on this friday, guys. nela richardson and jim mylonas are sticking with me. breaking news concerning box and disney. -- concerning fox and disney. fox regional sports networks says disney may sell. remember, disney lot it, and they have to up load stuff to win -- to mike the stocks were, and 21st cent

lots of headwinds. sophie is in a hong kong. stocks have been falling for a second straight session is considered spilled over the impact of china on corporate profits. health care and tech are the biggest laggards in the region. it is not helping to boost the benchmark in city. -- in sydney. it is time to cut risks and aussie stocks. the aussie dollar is on the back , extending losses for a second day up one third of 8%. the kospi is losing ground this morning but is on track for the best month since may of 2017. when you look at movers today, let's look at tpg. stock has fluctuated between gains and losses after rising at 3.7%. scrapping the construction of what would have been a shell is fourth football network using equipment from huawei. -- intended falling 2.7% nintendo falling 2.7%. there are weaker forecasted sales of the gaming and -- gaming platform. and komatsu is expected to post a moderating growth in the fourth quarter. is darkeningod over construction stocks in asia. cannot sue construction were some of them. koma

the fed governors about raising interest rates although we still continue to think it will play a headwindto reduce their balance sheet. >> do you feel that the lows are in for the market, at least medium term? >> i think that you perhaps you get a couple more percentage points of gain over the course of the next, say, 12 to 15 trading sessions overall, we're in a lower return environment for 2019 some headwinds, of course, are that the fed funds rate continues to be about 2.5% we don't anticipate that they're going to raise interest rates, but that fed funds rate at 2.5% pretty much is a headwind because our long-term forecast or returns for the s&p 500 is roughly about 5% to 6% >> then how do you construct a portfolio at washington crossing advisors given the fact that you think that we are in a low growth, low return environment >> on your bond portfolio, you want to extend your duration at this point and actually start to look towards higher quality bonds, but go out 10 to 15 years on those maturities as a buffer. also, what you want to do, stay in very consistent sectors here in the u

before we move on to the china headwinds.demand problem just an apple problem or is this a larger smartphone problem. just in terms of overall maturity. you've seen that cross for samson as well as others. obviously apple has seen that. it. in terms of upgrades. every call at 33 months. >> getting back to the china trade dispute. we are now learning that the apple supplier is moving some of their production out of china and india what you make of that? >> what you're starting to see is just more and more pressure for apple in light of what is happening in china. i think you're only get to see a small amount on the high end iphones. i think that is why if you get any sort of resolution on china that is the court factory on iphone. we don't really see any major changes there although the india issue is sort of they are hedging their bets in terms of where some of these production things are going to take place. microsoft is now a bigger stock than apple. that shows you how far they have come down. it's one of how far apple has

china is a headwind for them. if we look at what they are doing, there are other avenues to create value. privacyes around data and misinformation and doing a better job laundering or policing the platform, there is a lot of work to be done. from our field work when we look at what advertisers are doing and user metrics, the core platform is healthy and we have a newer drivers, instagram, whatsapp, and messenger. cyclical headwinds it will continue to be a factor for all of these companies if they can innovate, they should grow over the medium-term. >> we do not have to worry about saturation with a company like amazon. i am looking at the numbers and 26%,w the growth flow to half the rate we had in the previous quarter. does amazon get to a situation where it is so big they cannot add anything new as far as people to the platform? >> in the u.s., that is true in that we are closer to majority, relative to juggle phase overseas. example asng a good they make the membership more oruable by adding features programmi

>> 2019 is going to be a truly challenging year for the global auto industry, because we have headwindsn a number of the key markets. for example, u.s. demand is probably going to stay flat to slightly down. in europe, you had a boost to sales ahead of the environmental regulation change, which is not going to be replaced in 2019, and of course, we have been talking all morning about economic headwinds in china. overall, we can the global industry could be down around 1%. haidi: christopher, what is the 2019?t trend for is this the year we talk about ev's coming into the mainstream?we had a pickup in momentum. does that get sustained? christopher: i think we will see this as a stand for a couple of good reasons. in china, this is the first year where the new energy vehicle policy takes effect, and china is going to start to establish itself as the world leader in electricity have all's. also in the u.s., we started to see tesla start to deliver decent volumes of its model three sedan, and also, that will keep tesla and the topic of electric vehicles very much in the headlights. nextat c

it's not surprising given the headwinds that have been reasonably clear over the last you will too.man —— but have been affecting manufacturing investment and trade. they are also looking at things like borrowing and debt in emerging and developing economies. obviously, so much hangs on that relationship between the us and china which, as with scene, the rallies that with scene in the stock markets around the world this morning really coming out of this quite potentially. we will talk about that in just a second. but if you look at those predictions, 2.9%, 2.8% in 2020, that doesn't sound so bad. people we re that doesn't sound so bad. people were talking about a possible recession in 2020. it is still growth, there is that. they are not forecasting recession is in the united states or china. growth continues quite robustly. we saw some quite gloomy news. they potentially are looking at a recession which will have a huge effect on the eurozone but on a global level, as you say, it is an forecasting recession. global level, as you say, it is an forecasting recessionlj global level, a

. >> and you talk -- given that this was a headwind and more than you expected, have you talked, i'm interested, to president trump or members of the administration this is a big, important american economy listen, this trade dispute is really impacting our business? have you recently talked to the members of the administration and conveyed that? >> i'm telling our investors first about what we saw last quarter, and that is the way it should be. but i've had obviously many, many discussions over the course of many months to be constructed and to give sort of my perspective on trade and the importance of it to the american economy as well. and i feel like i'm -- that i'm being listened to in that respect and so i'm actually encouraged by what i've heard most recently coming from the u.s. and from china and hopefully we'll see some changes. >> but given that those trade tensions, tim, they do remain heated, given the pressure you're seeing, you're speaking to traders, investors, business people now, in the quarters ahead, how do you then navigate this >> well, you focus on what you can

-- headwinds of a slowdown as well? rebalancing towards consumption which has been going on since 2011, that long-term trend is still in its -- in effect. consumption will slow. the biggest inception factor is income and wage growth. as the economy slows, we will see pressure on employment and on wage and of course in china the property market is also negativeso there is a wealthy side the stock market as well. all of these headwinds are going to hurt consumption, but in terms of over the longer term, consumption will still grow faster than investment. the rebalancing is still going to be there. is it time to abandon the gdp target? i think many economists and people have argued for that, but the government, the gdp target to manageor for them expectations as well and for policy. i don't think the government will abandon the gdp target. .e expect them to tone it down maybe for 2019 the target is going to be either 6.5% or around 6%. we think around 6% is realistic. the ubs forecast is 6.1%. that will come with more easi

this should create some headwinds for growth for the region.l be factor for central banks to start to think a little more about easing monetary conditions going forward. whether that is done through rate cuts or liquidity management, i think it will come down to individual central-bank preferences. , regionalhul bajoria economist from barclays, joining us from singapore. rishaad: facing turbulence amid uncertainty ahead of the mumbai [indiscernible] what on earth is going on? this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: you are back with "bloomberg markets: asia." as we look with -- as we look at jet airways, working with lenders on their $1.2 billion debt. it is one of asia's worst-performing airlines. yvonne: our reporter has a story for us. tell us what the key takeaways are after this meeting with lenders. what we know now is lenders and liquidity partners are in talks. they are trying to find early resolution. yesterday the airline issued a the firstwhich is time acknowledging there could be a change in the board of directors which is indicating the shar

is seeingals maker international headwinds.he s&p 500 is bouncing further now, it has been positive all session. plenty of earnings including charge communications, the best performer right now up 16% with the public acquisition of broadband providers over the last couple of years, impressing investors with their results. facebook is impressing investors, up 12.5% right now. reasonably mixed picture on this side of the atlantic as we approach the close in four minutes. it seemed a solid month for europe, you can't argue with that, but as things get underway it's about to look more mixed. we have the shell today coming out with strong numbers. they have been waiting and as a result of which what we are seeing is a disproportionate effect. commerzbank is under pressure. deutsche bank is under pressure. trading flat and sideways, coming towards the month's end. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: we are 30 seconds until the end of regular trading this afternoon in europe. next session. reacting to the fed early on. you can see the main mark

is down to five percent i describe the starting to pick up yes i mean there are global economic headwinds are very mindful of that the downside risks are very mindful of that to the extent that they tried to attentions we certainly would like to see the result of a very encouraged by the progress and certainly the momentum that was generated in buenos aires in the wake of the g. twenty leaders summit between president trump and present jeeping so like others very interested in seeing any try tensions resolved in an orderly fashion as soon as possible you still planning to write a budget surplus afterwards. kate of deficits isn't that a bit late when we came into government five years ago we inherited a weakening economy rising unemployment in a rapidly deteriorating budget position today that the economy is stronger the growth outlook is better employment growth is strong the unemployment right road below who it was and to support it would be and indeed the budget is in a stronger improving position and our forecast definitely shows that we expect to return to surplus in twenty nine hundr

the headwinds for the economy and the trade war and a big government what xi's feels on big stimulus.fficult to move forward on plans. it does not mean there are not companies moving in. you see plenty of other companies that are trying to tap the china market because it is too big to ignore. a right now, german is uncertainty coming from the trade wars and until it is resolved, at least for the medium-term, you're going to have a hard time pushing investment on a larger scale. include forced technology transfer, they seem pretty structural problems on how the chinese economy is laid out. focuses on tax of ramsey, what sort of resolution can be found on this front of four march 1? mr. miller: short-term solutions. it's not that the chinese can't put together a mechanism for protecting u.s. and other foreign ip. it's all about enforcement. if china and u.s. and western country relations interior rate, then enforcement will be pulled back. get what hard to president trump wants, which is fundamental reform of the system in a short time. that is impossible. they can tweak this verrilli o

the near term, we certainly see the challenges and the greater headwinds are intensifying.t the fact we anticipate that q4 growth will remain subdued, the inflation forecasts are likely to be revised lower from the ecb, and as mario draghi alluded to, the headwinds continue to challenge the region. when we look at it from a currency perspective, yes, we anticipate near-term challenges, but over the medium term when we look toward the end of the year we still see, for example, wage pressures are building. so that should spillover to inflation pressures. and that is something that the ecb remains relatively confident in. so that does underpin our expectation that we could see some very modest gradual tightening coming from the ecb by the end of the year. vonnie: what about pound sterling, what are your clients asking? are you recommending any of them be involved and how would they hedge risk? laura: when we look at eurosterling at the current stage, we have seen a significant selloff in the euro that appears unwarranted, given the fact for the optimism for the u.k. to not cra

i don't think it will settle with all of the headwinds facing that group. you can continue to see trends in global and industrial manufacturing. it remains sluggish and weak and i don't think it's a pen essay a but it provides some room to maneuver. panacea,essay a -- a but it does pry -- provide some room to maneuver. vonnie: what will this mean for feedback mechanisms for the u.s. from china? some are starting to see encouraging noises coming out of the trade negotiations, we could take that as a signal that both sides are more willing to get things done, to prevent further escalation. that may reflect on the west side the sensitivities from the market stress, and from the china side it might reflect that they are feeling some of the chain of the -- the pain of this activity and the global trade conflict. this will be a positive trigger in terms of allowing a degree of breathing room. but really i can see it being a situation in which corporate and large ends -- and large situations are complicating supply chains and that the dispute is over and they are

are similar, and do you do see price pressure there, but i think it is relatively stable. .t is a headwind year of course, we are growing and treating more patients with better medicines. those tend to offset each other. newer categories and diabetes like a gop one class, led by true the city, with price exposure, are growing rapidly, much faster than any price headwind we expect. we have a unique product that is once a week, so we have not releasing the kind of pressure that you are talking about. and some products have new benefits, like life-saving cardiovascular benefits, so that is another we have not seen the same pressures. taylor: when we talk about price pressure, some of the deflation comes from generics. yesterday, we talked with the glaxosmithkline ceo, who said generics are part of the business model. it is what it is and it is up to us to find a way to work around it. what is your thought on generic and how much pressure are you facing this year from that? dave: i agree. it is part of our business and we plan for it. it does not get talked about in the price today, but our jo

vonnie: where the headline -- headwinds for your outlook on this stock? what are you most afraid of? >> we are looking at regulatory risk in the eu or the united states. it could become a much bigger problem if it gets implemented as proposed. dealing witheen these issues for years and of not sure that it's going to affect these companies on a long-term basis. vonnie: thanks to you. latest on the the crucial brexit vote. we will be speaking with claire perry. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ santander has dropped the plan to pick up andrea orcel and we are getting the details about pay between $40 million and $60 million. santander wouldn't be able to make up the cost of compensating orcel on lost day in the figure we are hearing is written $40 million and $60 million. it has been a rough start for hedge funds this year, market volatility has threatened the gains of hedge funds, as we see. the chief investment officer here, clear book, kelly primer is also with us -- tim, welcome, great to have you. a realike macro made come back towards the end of last

and china he says he is optimistic about the broader macro picture, that's despite headwinds from thetrong dollar and weakness in emerging markets. here's what he said about the possibility of a u.s./china trade deal >> i've had many, many discussions over the course of many months to be constructive and to give sort of my perspective on trade and the importance of it to the american economy as well. i feel i'm being listened to in that respect i'm encouraged by what i've heard most recently coming from the u.s. and from china, and hopefully we'll see some changes. >> now apple shares have tumbled around 30% over the past three months, that's because the company announced it would no longer break out unit sales. tim cook defending that decision, he said to cnbc the company will be making other disclosures such as revenues of its growing services business. dominic, back to you >> so elizabeth, take us through the -- the reaction in europe right now. we're seeing that negativity carry out there, but it's not as pronounced, i'm noticing, in dax and cac and uk ftse 100 trading. how is the

so, again, more headwinds. maybe not enough on the tariffs to push is hire quickly. i want to look at twitter. some tactical points when we look at the intraday chart of twitter. it fell below the 50 and 100 day moving average. the 100 day -- the 50 day was at a 32, 100 day moving average was 31.28. and now at a 30. so the key is to see of twitter can come back up to a 31 handle. david: thank you. the president's efforts to keep tracffic up on twitter is not helping the stock very much. we have two competing plans to be voted on tomorrow. do either of them have a chance of making it to the president's desk. we will ask mike round of south dakota. that is next. ♪ david: this is "balance of power." we would turn onto mark crumpton who is here with first word news. mark: house democrats are preparing a proposal to boost border security by spending more than the $5.7 billion president trump wants for a wall. the catch is the money could not be used for a wall. the amount is subject to change, part of an offer aimed at ending the partial government shutdown. and china ris

however, the short-term headwinds, u.s., china, brexit, domestic challenges, there is plenty to worry about. through innervation, i believe the toughest problems can be tackled. >> thank you very much. next step, former white house communication directors, anthony scaramucci. we'll be talking about his work with president trump and other things. we will be right back ve g i switched to liberty mutual because they let me customize my insurance, and as a fitness junkie, i customize everything. like my bike and my calves. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ >> joining me now from the whit, anthony scaramucci. thank you. >> you been to many gatherings. are you good at reading the move. what is your sense of how people feel about the forthcoming year. >> i think they are wary that the combination of what's going on in washington is putting a drag on the economy. it's not great. your growth in the quarter mean people start making adjustments and then you get a self fulfilling prophecy of more slowdown activi

the headwinds to earnings i think will be there.ve an imminent recession which is usually one of the key ingredients to a real bear market. i think it is just prudent to is probablynd cash not a bad thing for many investors. today we saw airlines rally because they had a strong outlook for revenue. at the same time, ceos were warning of this government shutdown in the u.s. potentially affecting them in the future. what sectors should you watch out for, should you be cautious on when you continue to see political uncertainty here in the u.s.? .nd just globally as well like theething shutdown is always going to be a short-term factor. in any sector is going to be shrugged off. inreceived a mandate december that is still subject to approval to manager gold-mining fun. its environment where interest rates are turning down, so we like it. i'm not telling anybody to go into any sector. theshould not be driven by news that the day as many people are. there is always something to be concerned about. to have atant secondary approach and stic

so these will be the near turned headwinds for the company.nly just now in addition to what david was asking about a quarter of revenue comes from huawei and apple. another space falling off a these chips are needed for mining bitcoin, which formed a significant part of revenue last year for tsmc. it has to find new revenue drivers, doesn't it? >> yes, indeed. we estimate the cryptocurrency ,elated to the that coin mining that will count for 6% of revenue for last year. mining that use amd, thatnvidia and will account for another 3% or 4% of revenue, so about 10% of revenue. that is gone. it hit the most in the first quarter. the first quarter guidance, it is actually down close to 10%, to be theill continue problem in the second quarter. as we move to the second half of this year come the year over year comparison will improve because we are to have less critical currency revenue, so the comparison perspective will get easier. david: let's try to an end interview on a positive note. i'm getting depressed. nothing personal, but a lot of headwi

three-day weekend, shows the market only cares about getting some deal done and getting the trade headwind off the table because i don't really see we'll address these big issues especially in the short term. i think we'll take a deal that deals with the trade imbalance. unfortunately these important things like you mentioned with opening up the free markets and ip, i think those will be left behind. maybe we get that eventually. i don't know, maybe we never get it. connell: let's go to facebook for a moment. we found out it this afternoon looks like it is under fire, regulators imposing a record-setting fine for the giant because of privacy violations. kristina partsinevelos up in the newsroom with more details. >> ftc is looking to punishing facebook in the united states. this is the first time they are going after facebook. why? privacy concerns, privacy violations an on going problem with facebook. in 2011, facebook signed an agreement with ftc they would explicitly ask permission from users before sharing that information. then what happened? cambridge analytica scandal. there are sev

societe generale headwinds.f a billion dollar chart challenging global markets and the revenue slump. we will break down the numbers of the french banking giant. ♪ nejra: 71 days until brexit. i have in westminster the morning after theresa may government survived a no-confidence vote called by the labour party. theresa may now entering into dangerous and delicate discussions. she needs to come back to parliament on monday with a plan the. in the meantime -- plan b. in the meantime, she is planning to hold cross party discussions, but jeremy corbyn of labor wants theresa may to rule out that no deal brexit first. manus: will she be prepared to move on her red lines? bushy be prepared to move on customs union -- will she be prepared to move on the customs union? we will discuss. let's show you the bond markets, first of all. we had the fed survey last night. the beige book, and in and there were 19 mentions of interest rates. you have got a very clear disc insertion in the u.s. -- disconcertion in the u.s. in reg

we are saying headwinds here.rbulence extending to 2019, and the biofarma stocks, health care stocks from china taking it hard today. we have been talking about this whiteout in market value when it comes to the health care sector. they are trying to bring down generic truck prices in china. some say not out of the woods yet. manus: thank you very much. day,ve our question of the if you call rhetoric progress versus a factual document. if you would like to join us, please do. tv on your bloomberg. let's get the first word news. good morning. donald trump has invited top congressional leaders from both parties for a white house briefing on border security. this follows his suggestion that he wants a deal to end the shutdown. it is the first sign of a possible opening in negotiations to break the stalemate that shutdown parts of the government 11 days. the invitation includes top leaders in the house and senate. e branch toed an oliv nancy pelosi. elizabeth warren has taken a major step toward a 2020 white hous

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however, the short-term headwinds, u.s., china, brexit, domestic challenges, there is plenty to worry about. through innervation, i believe the toughest problems can be tackled. >> thank you very much. next step, former white house communication directors, anthony scaramucci. we'll be talking about his work with president trump and other things. we will be right back as a fitness junkie, i customize everything - bike, wheels, saddle. that's why i switched to liberty mutual. they customized my insurance, so i only pay for what i need. i insured my car, and my bike. my calves are custom too, but i can't insure those... which is a crying shame. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ we all make excuses for the things we don't want to do. but when it comes to colon cancer screening... i'm not doin' that. i eat plenty of kale. ahem, as i was saying... ...with cologuard, you don't need an excuse... all that prep? no thanks. that drink tastes horrible! but...there's no prep with cologuard... i can't take the time off work. who has two days? and i feel fine - no s

however, the short-term headwinds, u.s., china, brexit, domestic challenges, there is plenty to worry about. through innervation, i believe the toughest problems can be tackled. >> thank you very much. next step, former white house communication directors, anthony scaramucci. we'll be talking about his work with president trump and other things. we will be right back ve g but some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed. and while some advisors are happy to earn commissions whether you do well or not. fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe that's why most of our clients come from other money managers. fisher investments. clearly better money management. >> joining me now from the whit, anthony scaramucci. thank you. >> you been to many gatherings. are you good at reading the move. what is your sense of how people feel about the forthcoming year. >> i think they are wary that the combin

the potential headwind and catastrophes that might happen get removed. guy: what are you waiting? are you still waiting to deploy capital? patrick: we have been deploying capital on every down day, the cloying emerging markets. weaknesssee any market , that is when we will build more. , you are actively averaging him. what about other aspects? hat trick: we are short large-cap growth in the u.s. since august. that is not from higher wages, from interest-rate costs. if you are in social media and data protection, there will be higher regulatory costs, lawsuits. that is a potential area where tech companies might face margin issues. everyone knows about handsets and margin pressures. i think alphabet and facebook might have margin issues. taylor: what might need to happen for you to remove yourself from large-cap companies in the u.s.? patrick: you are looking at the russell 1000 trading at 21 times earnings. that is not crazy expensive. people feel safe to own these large-cap tech companies and pay premiums for them. i think there are cyclical and structural issues that might creat

lisa: you are saying there are a lot of headwinds. this we've known.t makes me curious is the fact that they missed already lowered expectations. typically analyst expectations are lowball estimates. that has typically been the trend. the fact that caterpillar missed and typically don't, does that give you a bigger warning sign of just how big those clouds are? reporter: i think what it is saying is how fast things are turning down. i thought the fourth quarter would actually be fine because leverage has been really good. they've been able to overcome cost problems because they put price increases through, which they never do. markets have not been a problem, and sales have been good. two missed by mitch but -- two missed by this much, i'm curious -- to miss by this much, i'm curious. they had another year of good earnings, and paid the price for that comment. but you can't grow at 40%, 50% for a long time. more topline headwinds. there is more to be concerned about in 2019. david: karen, thank you for being here. that is our own karen huber heart -- k

signifying some growth headwinds.e looking ahead to the open when it comes to, bank of japan decision day. we are watching for conversations around the slowdown in growth and inflation. domestic factors as well, like the strength of the yen and how that plays into keeping inflation capped. futures looking a bit low. watching chipmakers today in south korea. tech and chipmaker stocks really fall badly in the overnight session. shery: really weighing on the markets with all that drama surrounding wh huawei. defending the legal proceedings in the case against the cfo. not asking the united states to drop it extraditions efforts. our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle is following this story. this economic feud not going away anytime soon. stephen: the standoff is continuing with both sides, china and canada saying similar things that there are legal proceedings going on and these are not politicized cases. i am talking of course about the aggradation case in canada with meng of huawei, but also in china, at lea

higher after a dovish fed blames global headwinds for keeping rates on hold. >> in this environment we believe we can best support the economy by being patient and evaluating the outlook before making any future adjustment to policy >>> higher oil prices boost net profit at shelby 36% in 2018 the oil major pays out almost $4 billion in dividends and shares head higher. >>> consumer giant unilever misses fourth quarter sales forecast as the new ceo takes the helm while spirits are lifted at diaggo >> north america, up 6%. europe up 5% the emerging markets up 10%. scotch whiskey doing well. we're feeling good about the business and about maintaining steady performance from here >>> swauch ticks lower as the swiss watch maker reports fourth quarter sales below expectations and blames a downturn in asia and france. >>> the dow ended the session yesterday more than 400 points higher all sectors in the green a big boost for the tech sector as well. the nasdaq he wanteding the day up 2.2%. that positive mood prevailed into the asian session as well seemed a lift for asian equities you can see

there are some headwinds. weaker seasons with expectations. fresh downgrades from the streets. concerns about low growth -- loan growth. are still continuing to get a flattening yield curve with higher deposits on the shorter and. you do have earnings expectations moving significantly lower. we will have to see how much the tailwinds and headwinds play out for the banks starting on monday. >> let's look at the s&p 500. the index ended with a small loss on the week, a big again of to a half percent. have had three weeks and a row. we have seen big moves up and down, big volatility. year, and summer last smaller moves but that was the resolution of the earlier volatility. there has not been 14-week winning or losing streak. that next may suggest week will be a down week for the s&p 500. earnings will probably tell that one. >> looking at the retail sector which remained under pressure today given the profit warning that we saw from macy's yesterday. gloom went from boom to in 24 hours. look at the s&p 500 retail index since christmas. it is put in a 16% gain. from anome notes ana

all of these at negative headwinds seem to be building up in the continent, and it's interesting that the imf are placing that right at the focus point of one of the reasons why we could see a global slowdown when it comes to the economic outlook here i think when we look at it from our angle, it is an interesting setup for the ecb on thursday where dragi continues to insist that they're balanced and not really tilted towards the down side, but it's at odds of what the imf are telling us >> yes, and given these forecasts you are wonderin whether or not mr. dragi's own forecast for rate hikes could be a bit tweaked. i'm not sure we'll get any update in the meeting. of course, it's significant given that germany is the engine of growth for the water european bloc this also comes a year after europe anne growth momentum did slow across 2018 while the ecb ended its ultra loose monetary policy ceos at davos have somewhat differing views on the prospect for the economy. >> if we really get an economic slowdown in europe, i think the central banks and government from a monetary point of view