a lot of those hedges have been monetized, so investors who placed hedges, they are happy how the hedges have done because obviously the s&p 500 has gone into bear market territory. people have also de-risked and there is less to hedge. economists were saying this morning is the theory that these surprises, a potential 9% cpi or potential 100 basis points being factored into the dot plots, then you see a neat renewal -- a renewal from the 30 numbers to something higher. abigail: we have to ask about the vix, it is down given the gains on the long levels of the s&p 500. how high could the vix go if 30 is the new 20, could 40 become the new 30? put amy: it definitely --amy: it definitely feels like 20 was it but it has moved up a full 10 points. march of 2020, the global financial crisis you saw the vix hit 80. in terms of what we can have happen, it can go higher. the question is, how much higher can it go persistently, and that is key. the fact that we have persistently high 30 vix creates a plus or minus 2% will be daily. if we not only get to a vix of 40 but persistently there, then it

liz: close to hedge. me ask now, they are also getting another stumbling block thrown at their feet and that is the potential rule change to trading that gary gensler, the securities and exchange commission chair wants to make. hedge funds make massive block trades. how do you foresee his changes potentially involving things likening payment for order flow practices, effecting hedge funds and quite frankly, could any kind of contagion spill over to the retail investor? >> so liz, payment for order flow is mainly aimed at the retail investor. today the retail investor accounts for about 20% of the trading, so firms like sarah sanders charles schwab, e-trade, robinhood, they shop these order s to a firm like citadel or virtu, and they get paid for that order flow. in fact, these brokerage firms last year made $3.8 billion paying the brokerage firms for order flow. liz: right. now, what you do if you're e- trade or charles schwab give it to your favorite execution broker and while the public thinks they are

and we can see that hedged.his implies about a $.19 decline in the former 12 month earnings network. to the degree that the dollar does continue to strengthened materially from here, we could have a modest drag index in earnings. jon: whether it is currency headwinds or the help of consumers, obviously a lot of companies are going to be providing outlooks in the weeks ahead. the challenge for corporate profits and margin pressure, this came up in a lot of the monday morning strategy notes once again. what is the data telling you right now? >> i think the market pressures coming from a number of sources. certainly, corporate profits are feeling a down draft as long as you are not an energy company. they are still expensing positive revision, after very sticky high oil costs and commute -- commodity costs. outside of that, very significant weakness has emerged in the consumer space, rightly related to margins and pricing. too much inventory building up, with some consumer retail it has become problematic. also, co

that's not the same to say that they're a hedge against inflation. >> that's interesting.me countries like turkey and russia, we are told the reason that people were putting in their money was because they were afraid of losing value in their local currencies. let's bring in naim, was also the collapse of some of the other coins like terra usd did it contribute to what we've seen happening in the wider digital coin market? >> i concur with you. when you are in a new cycle of innovation technologies blow out like these that do happen as a market adjust a new reality a new product and as you guys were discussing earlier you know search for a better yield product obviously created an enormous amount of a grid in this space. it created a massive bubble around everything. so basically just like how our traditional systems financial systems work where one bank is pretty much using the money from another bank and then you have that domino effect already taking place in the crypto world because a lot of these yield players they come from traditional markets now. they are using the

oliver: the hedge i think, i think the only hedge would be cash, to be honest. lot of people come on the show and say cash does nothing against inflation but i can tell you a fund manager, i look at my bloomberg screen and it has been a sea of red when bonds and stocks have been falling. to have some cash which holds its own on some days is a pretty good hedge against those asset classes. i think that could continue through the summer. particularly when you have those interest rates coming up fast. cash suddenly becomes an investable asset class for the first time in a long time. cash is not trash, as i think some people on your show have mentioned to me a few times. manus: [laughs] let's talk about some moments in terms of risk. as we start the trading week, we need to reset the mind after the battering last week, the worst since the start of the pandemic. 1994, what was a grotesque year for bonds, those were big surprises. we did not know what was coming down the pike in 1994. 2008, every weekend you went home and somebody went bust. it doesn't seem like 2008.

we can confirm tiger down 14.3 in may i talked a lot about hedge funds. i was talking a lot about them in may, jim, and the context of they were sellers and they were reducing risk a la, for example, co2. but not everybody papparently some of the numbers i'm getting are atrocious and are taking them to level where is you wonder how they can really save their business when you're down more than 60%, as was chase coleman at tiger, one of the great growth funds, by the way, public and private, remember, one of the largest private investors, and, you know, i don't know enough about whether it's the fully blended number overall, but the numbers are just staggering at this point, jim, and you do wonder -- >> people are they billion-dollar funds >> huge funds. >> down 50%. people at home have to recognize this is highly unusual >> yes, it is. >> that is just terrible >> it's a terrible reflection overall i think in some ways of the industry and what's happened to the industry. >> we focus on these firms >> you talk about some of the stocks that are down sharply

our views on values now are much better, the main reason for that is actually inflation hedging.hat it means is that with higher rates, the discount rates also are higher, and he later cash flows for growth stacks are much more discounted than value stocks. yousef: some lines coming through from francois villeroi governor of the banque de france, saying normalization of ecb policy is required, european growth will be slower in the next two years, and he adds that european fiscal policy is constrained by covid debts. give me a sense of your thinking around what the ecb needs to do over the next 30 days in terms of communication, and signaling, to make sure it remains insulated to a fed that wants to frontload? giulio: i think the ecb, as we mentioned earlier, is behind the curve compared to the fed. they are learning a lot from the actions and potentially, some of the mistakes that have been made by the fed. there is a reason to be a little bit more concerned about recession risk in the european areas. the numbers that are coming out for europe are not as good as the numbers for t

and that funding and hedging cost is going to go up over time.o our expectation is that foreign demand will likely look a lot weaker, certainly relative to 2020 and 2021. so the outlook is not holding welcome in my view, for foreign vance. lisa: victoria fernandez, jim keenan, and lotfi karoui. still ahead, a host of central bank rate decisions. let's see what the fed has to say. that situation coming up next. ♪ lisa: i am lisa abramowicz, in for jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." time now for the final spread, the week ahead, coming up, cpi data followed by jobless claims. starting with the fed and the chair powell news conference on wednesday, then it is the bank of england's turn on thursday, and finally, rounding out with the bank of japan on friday. still with us here, we are happy to say, victoria fernandez, jim keenan, and lotfi karoui. a lot of noise around the fed meeting in particular. victoria, do you want to weigh in on how much he could bring forward with expectations as a result of today? victoria: i'm not sure they are

they can be a good hedge against inflation with strong returns.t rises and falls with the consumer price index right now, the rate is 9.62% for six months you can purchase up to $10,000 in i-bonds each year from the government at treasurydirect.gov can't cash them in f oorne year and there's a penalty for selling within five years. orswi, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade >>> it is time for a look back a few weeks back, mike laid out a way to play coinbase >> specifically in this case looking at the september 65 puts, you'll notice, this is not surprising given the volatility we see both in all of the cryptos, but anything associated with them. so you'll notice that the september 65 puts in coinbase cost $16 that's well more than 20% of the strike price of course, th

airlines are known for hedging against these higher jet fuel prices to cushion that. are they sheltered in that way from these higher costs? >> u.s. majors are largely unhedged. like in europe, all of the carriers are hedged upwards of 70%, 65% of the top consumption this year. everyone was enjoying the pandemic in the lowes and got used to that and forgot about the ironclad principles of hedging, moving volatility, moving earnings volatility and some of them are going to go back, co-ops and premiums and an equivalent or high. -- are high. the oil has to be scary, a lot of airline cfos -- scary for a lot of airline cfos. jon: we just talk about -- talked about the state of the u.s. consumer. do you think the u.s. consumer can handle higher prices they have been paying to fly? >> every ticket that is flying in the system is sold. the problem is the average consumer household, look at the family balance sheet concerns, a looming recession, it either has people in the lower end of the earnings spectrum have to put a brake on the travel right away. those who could afford

at some point those hedges will wear off.expecting our costs to look like, double digits again? clive: for now that is is it assumption. we have not come up with projections for 2023 projected inflation. one way we are hedging against that is we are one of the first to go into solar. we were one of the first in 2016 and recently built a larger plant in maui. we are tapping into that. that is lowering our fuel consumption by about 15% so far. also, lowering our footprint from the carbon point of view. we are looking to expand those operations and that is significant. we are looking at electric trucks and other avenues. we have been on the cutting-edge of those opportunities and technologies. we are continuing to do that. guy: does that determine where you go next, the ability to take that technology with you and put it to work? can you put that to work forever you operate around the world? if you got fresh licenses and a, would it work there? is it about where you can get the best returns in terms of reducing your energy footp

as an inflation hedge. because you think central banks may not necessarily have control over things. so my interpretation of why it went up today is the investors are saying central banks do not have control on inflation. it's going to get worse. going to go higher and i need a hedge against it and you have to pay attention to what the gold market is telling you. >> bk, why is that so scary? >> why because they're going to be raising rates because they don't have control over inflation. so they've got to raise rates more than the market thinks, which means you're going to have a much harder landing than what the market is pricing in to that >> i think gold has been perplexing because we have had this opportunity if gold is the ultimate inflation hedge because it's an asset that doesn't have a yield attached to it there's seemingly unlimited supply today, gold takes off because it's very clear, a lot of inflation dynamics, whether they peaked or not. i don't think so we heard about the services side of the i

guy: maybe we don't want to hedge. there's all kinds of factors in play here.ou would have thought with capitulation you would be looking to see that. let's talk a bit about the central bank story, the data that is being plugged in right now. britain's labour market is showing tentative signs of easing up a little bit. the bank of england may move carefully on rates. you still got a superhot labor market. we are potentially starting to see some signs that it is easing up a little bit, but nevertheless, wages and the labor market remains strong. we have clearly superhigh inflation. that probably put the bank of england situation where it doesn't want to go. let me talk to somebody who is probably going to put all this a little bit better, lizzie burton. talk to me about what this means for the bank of england. lizzie: you've got something for both the doves and the hawks. on one hand, this is a cost-of-living pain be could wage growth was higher-than-expected, to slowly put the rise to the workers, and the suspending power, the most and 21 years. on the other ha

they can be a good hedge against inflation with strong returns. and falls with the consumer price index right now, the rate is 9.62% for six months you can purchase up to $10,000 in i-bonds each year from the government at treasurydirect.gov can't cash them in for one year and there's a penalty for selling within five years. it's time for our summer sale on the sleep number 360 smart bed. why choose proven quality sleep from sleep number? because every green thumb, 5k, and all-day dance party starts the night before. the sleep number 360 smart bed senses your movements and automatically adjusts to help keep you both comfortable all night and help you get almost 30 minutes more restful sleep per night. sleep number takes care of the science. all you have to do is sleep. don't miss our weekend special. save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. plus, 0% interest for 36 months. and free home delivery when you add a base. ends monday. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamli

to play for some downside exposure and also at the same time potentially provide a little bit of a hedgeo current equity positions that you might have, but only risking 2.5% of the equity position, or 2.5% of the stock's value in order to take this bearish bet or a hedge >> mike, i thought the consumer was strong and that they're still spending the same amount basically, but spending it on different things which doesn't make a different rents to visa as long as they're spending and there's more cross-border travel what is your take on this trade? >> first of all, i think that's an excellent point one of the things we have to remember is a lot of companies, their revenues and their earnings are largely priced, as you are pointing out, at a nominal level. does visa really care whether you are spending it on a high-ticket discretionary item or just on beef that costs 80% more than it used to the truth is if consumers are basically breaking out their credit cards and using them to basically the max of their ability, then that's probably not going to affect their top line very much i think re

. >> you keep calling it inflation hedge but it's not acting as an inflation hedge.s really acting as if it's just one of the speculative parts of the market that got overvalued during the massive liquidity and stimulus that the fed and the fiscal government pumped in in the last few years. sort of like spacs, what's happened there. >> i would tell you i don't think that's quite right what's been going on the last two years during the big bitcoin bull market, when bitcoin went from 4,000 to 69,000 is all of those inflationary pressures were building. and especially in 2020, when the massive run-up in crypto and bitcoin in particular first happened, that's when we were baking inflation into the economy. what's happening now is a series of major rate increases by major banks. so inflation is super high but the activity by bankers is putting pressure on it so the last two years of inflationary cycle great from bitcoin. tightening, bad for bitcoin. >> 2020 is when we get the massive stimulus, including from the fed. nobody was anticipating inflation. we could have been s

on monday we had a narrative, hedge funds were dumping everything, is that what story say?> i would describe it as resignation. we are in a point where we understand this is going to be a slog, the next six to 12 months, it will be tough like you said with the fed trying to navigate this landing, less panic. i understand that hedge funds are dumping everything but there have been reports that there were pretty much very much gross into this week, the last couple of weeks we mentioned the argument still happening, we are seeing more volume this week but it does seem like everyone knows we are in for a tough run, mostly d growth but not a lot of buyers. kriti: 30 to handle on the vix, i have to ask about liquidity. how much of these moves are being magnified because of a lack of liquidity? >> every time volatility moves higher you will see less quiddity. i would not say things are dislocated. you can look, of course to percent, 3% moves lower, those are certainly not all and it's not how you would put it as we would expect, but it is been higher and number of times even in th

they can be a good hedge against inflation with strong returns.he rate on i-bond rises and falls with the consumer price index right now, the rate is 9.62% for six months you can purchase up to $10,000 in i-bonds each year from the government at treasurydirect.gov just remember, you can't cash them in for one year and there's a penalty for selling within five years. for cnbc, i'm sharon epperson. did i tell you i bought our car from carvana? yeah, ma. it was so easy! i found the perfect car, under budget too! and i get seven days to love it or my money back... i love it! i thought online meant no one to help me, but susan from carvana had all the answers. she didn't try to upsell me. not once, because they're not salespeople! what are you...? guess who just checked in on me? mom... susan from carvana! [laughs] we'll drive you happy at carvana. it's time for our summer sale on the sleep number 360 smart bed. why choose proven quality sleep from sleep number? because every green thumb, 5k, and all-day dance party starts the night before. the sleep n

against a hedge against inflation. those are the 2 primary concerns in relation to that. but having said that, i think i've given what the price is currently and then yes, there are. perhaps we may see that to the downside, perhaps 30 to 15000. that is where i see the floor or master really come that it's going to head to 0. now, i think, so i'll let you know will be had many. i'm in the simple answer to that is just listen, wanted to let it go from the other. because it's all about filtering through the noise and then looking through that, what is the really future of this? all right, i'll have, i let me ask, i do agree with that. how we approach the floor here. look, i think, you know, we're going to be based ripping short cover and rally, you know, because when something falls like this, you're always going to get these very vicious. but i think, you know, what we've seen now is, is that a tiny point? it was experiential to the outside. it's now exponential to the downside. i mean, if you can, you can make an argume

and what brings you to the dark hedges? game of thrones. we? yep! if you're wondering, this is the scene that's made so popular. adrian runs a game of thrones tour business. he calls himself the other ser davos as he was actually an extra and body double in the tv series. the trees have been here for over 2a7 years, mostly unknown until game of thrones came along and decided to use it for a tiny little part of a scene in season two and then that kind of put it on the map. so, as a tour guide now, how have you found it in the past few years? most tourism completely shut down and it gave it an opportunity to kind of recover from the over—tourism, you know? yeah. did it get quite damaged, then? especially the verges, you know? right. even though the road is closed, and it has been closed to traffic and has been since 2017, it gave it a chance to recover a little bit, you know? now that's ticked off my list, i'm headed back out to the coast. it's only 15 minutes up to a place that's just reopened after two years. this is the carrick—a—rede rope

but you can't seriously argue that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. not any more bitcoin is down nearly 70% far from being a hedge against the government printing money. it is one of the biggest beneficiaries. wow. bad chart. but people still need a store value. now that crypto is collapsing, i see them reverting to gold the bitcoin boom sucked the life out of gold. if you want gold exposure, my favorite, bad gold for my money, this is the best operator in the industry the best portfolio on earth, along with some producing copper miners if the copper had been up higher, it would still be gold they're holding span from south africa to new guinea they have good geographic diversification. a clear strategy with a ten-year businessman in place they do a great job of communicating these plans to the investors. so the results barely come as a surprise he can keep producing for many years to come while also copper production during the decade the cost of copper is so low when it is part of a by product of gold. the company has a track record of quarterly ear

i will tell you that there are still a lot of hedges going on. the way i would think about it is, the derivatives market is certainly not saying that everything is warm and rosy. yesterday to see that not in the s&p, but in bond bull proxy etfs. it has been the case consistently through the years as people monetize. so as we get into the summer,, i think you are in a dead zone right now but as we start to get more information coming in as we get earnings and cpi numbers, that will start to trickle in again on the bond proxies. tom: really since the start of the pandemic and the boom of meme stock trading, i have been talking to you about retail activity. kailey: they were all in on-call options and the always bought the dip. but jp morgan yesterday was talking about how that has changed. their data issuing they reached the heaviest filling since september of 2020. what are you seeing in terms of retail activity? amy: there is a nuance i want to make. and people speak about retail, there are two kinds of retail. there are people who are yolo-in g

and we have an overweight allocation to hedge fund focusing on multi-strategy and macro hedge fund.nd we think commodity link currency will likely do better the second half of the year. i think the market is not priced insignificant central bank policy rate hikes. currently we expect another 75 fed rate hike in july followed by two more 50 rate hikes. and then we expect policy rates in the u.s. will go up to 3.625% before we may see a pause in policy tightening in the first quarter of next year. as we expect the growth, we see more substantial slowdown in the next six months in the u.s. rishaad: interest rates going up, a lot of corporate are leveled up. this would expose that. what kind of companies with good credit i'm assuming, arguably good valuation as well, and free cash flow. these are the companies that could perhaps withstand what is happening. fan: our portfolio strategy is very much focused on quality, income, and diversification. and now we're facing significant disruption in the global economy, so we position in quality companies that have the ability to this -- to adap

francine: hedge funds and tiger cubs?e starts of the hedge fund world, all the tiger cubs are basically down. maverick capital and loan in both down 30% this year. add onto that chaise, and down more than 50%. they are largely tech focused, tracking nasdaq, but a fascinating around from the hottest hedge fund to get into to a downturn. tom: cathie wood suggesting inventor he is going to be short-lived, and you can imagine hedge funds will be betting on that as well. thank you for breaking down credit suisse. a redline from the boj, concerned about recent rapid yen decline. that is a redhead across the terminal, that rate differential pressure on the japanese currency, ridley trading at 133. we had jim o'neill suggesting if the yen gets to 150 it could spark another financial crisis in asia. plenty more coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ psst. girl. you can do better. ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too. at least with your big name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile, you can get unlimited for $30 per m

the cozy i of the world's biggest hedge fund. i cannot think of a better person to ask that question on a day like today. do you think the pricing currently reflects the risk? >> unfortunately, i think there is a fair amount to go. we are in a process where things have radically changed from where they were pre-covid. last year, asset prices were supported by a tremendous amount of liquidity. this year, central banks are scrambling to catch up with what happened last year. there is the rising interest rate that has benefited for so long. on top of that, there is a liquidity hole that is developing. if you take last year, where did all the money come from to keep them at high levels across all asset levels? that was a result of the fed and banks piling into the bond market despite the worst fundamentals. it filtered through the financial markets. essentially sustaining assets that required new liquidity to keep their prices. now that is going the opposite direction, the fed is moving toward lowering its balance sheet. we are findi

jim, you're a hedge fund billionaire. here's a slice of helio's. >> we'll talk to fedex, holding ils first investor day in a whe. futures have hung in there and are maintaining action to the upside back in a moment europe is in worst shape and the geopolitical issues there. the u.s. is somewhere in the middle on the u.s. side, you know, the consumers are spending but they're spending more on services versus goods. so we've factored these things into our calculus. the good news for fedex is our network is so vast that we're able to flex up or down depending on the volume levels >> the ceo of fedex, the company holding its first investor day in a decade. fiscal 25, 14%, 9% >> he did a fantastic job. i said here's a company in control. he created something fabulous, but this gem right now where they've got europe -- you know, i've got to tell you he left them so europe is good with at&t they can switch the services i was with amazon web services and they clearly did overbill. that was their mistake but e-commerce is still st

goldman sachs is saying perhaps the yen could be a good hedge for a recession. boj potentially could make a u-turn. kriti: talk about owning half of the market. it looks like the boj could pass the 50% mark. >> it's hard for the boj to keep those deals down stuff they could make a u-turn and there is a lot of spec elation because they have tried to keep the 10 year yield below that point stuff it's becoming really hard so you can see the chart on the bloomberg. we are talking about 49.2% stuff the boj could face 50% and we have not seen any of those -- at the other central bank go through this process. this is supposed to be easing as a temporary measure. the bank of japan has become the biggest whale in its own market stop what will it mean for bank of japan holders? will they become less comfortable? the private sector in japan is pretty overweight jgb's and underweight equity markets. the boj thinks this is not sustainable also. if they go into the equity space, what would that mean for the boj who is the biggest player in this section of the market? kriti: t

as we first reported in february, there's an additional threat: hedge funds and other financial firmst own nearly a third of the daily papers in america. and these new owners are often committed not to headlines and deadlines, but to bottom lines. one fund in particular has been called by some in the industry a dry. it all prompts the question: as local newsrooms and local news coverage shrivel up, to what extent does democracy shrink with it? ♪ ♪ ♪ behind the marching band and baton twirlers, at the annual 4th of july parade in pottstown, pennsylvania, you'll find a one-man band: reporter evan brandt-- snapping photos, taking notes, and gathering quotes. >> evan brandt: the paper comes out tomorrow. >> tomorrow? >> brandt: every day. tell me all about what you're doing here. >> we're just looking forward to a great 4th of july. >> wertheim: for the last 24 years, he's chronicled this community of 23,000 for the local newspaper, "the mercury," which at one time had dozens of reporters. now, brandt is, literally, the last reporter standing in pottstown. when a community like this loses

so those investors, we did get hedges in the ayg last week and volatility is twice as high.le it's certainly not still cheap. it might even become arguably rich, but you know, it has become very popular, like i said, put volume, call volume and open interest, et cetera, has exploded compared to where we were a year or two ago. >> would you say it's almost a contrarian sign that once it gets to these levels that maybe the move, the big spread widening has run its course? >> certainly, you could make that argument for the volatility level. it doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to go up or down or whatever, but those options were -- are usually pretty inexpensive, but because of what's been happening recently, they've now become pretty expensive so a lot of volatility is priced into the product and now you have to wonder if it's a little bit overdone. >> quick, final question a lot of people are asking you why the vix isn't higher explain. >> sure. that's the biggest question we're getting. in my opinion, what's the risks? they're pretty well known. it's almost been a slo

it is all about rest session hedges rising -- re cession hedges rising. >> garfield reynolds is whether us. and kathleen hays. global stocks in a bear market. how much further shock do we see to sentiment? >> in a lot of ways, sentiment is going to go on being pretty gloomy until the fed meets. we have only a couple days before we get that result. in the meantime, we have this very high inflation reading. we have everyone reading -- running ahead of themselves towards higher rates. this is exactly the risk in a lot of ways rates markets around the world have been busy pricing. you had bond investors saying they could not see how rates could possibly go as high and not on a sustained basis as was being priced in by traders but when you have central banks needing to fight inflation and even acknowledging that they have limited tools to fight supply-side driven inflation but they have to fight it anyway, then something like this inflation print and then the expectation that rates could go from -- up 1%, double in one go, that is the sort of thing that explains why rates traders were so war

hedge funds were dip nothing to other riskier projects to get the higher yield with very little dish closure, making it hard to track on the back end. someone i spoke to on the weekend compared it to the subprime mortgage crisis many are worried about counterparty risk and who is solvent at this price. analysts call this a mini financial crisis speaking of solvency, just this morning, crypto lending company saying it got a line of credit, a $250 million line of credit from another crypto company. their ceo saying that was to bolster their balance sheet amid all this volatility. one way to assess the total damage, called total value lock, also tvl, which attempts to track deposits in this ecosystem. some call it de-fi glass note estimates that market has lost $124 billion in the past six weeks analysts also point to a flight to some of the u.s. based cryptocurrencies the supply of usdc, a crypto currency pegged to the price of the dollar, has grown by $5 billion since the start of may, while tether, which is based overseas, has seen roughly $13 billion of redemptions >> and the cofoun

haidi: your inflation hedges are cash commodities.t are you holding in terms of dry powder at the moment for cash, and for commodities, what your preferred exposure? >> about 10% over the year we have been holding for 2020, 2021 it would've been something like 2%. a significant pickup from that point in time. we'll go, we like commodities, so those in when you think about cash versus others, cash is about 4%, so maybe a little bit higher than what we traditionally held, so holding a decent amount. >> great to have you with us, state street global advisors chief macro strategist. guggenheim cios says the fed is running out -- is running out of time when it comes to five-year inflation. he told bloomberg surveillance it's possible the u.s. is already in recession and cracks are appearing in the credit world. >> we haven't seen anything like this where we have an inflation problem that we are fighting and , the big difference i think between greece been -- greenspan and us today, greenspan was in the era of opportunistic disinflation. we

we have a hedge position.ing that can keep bringing this market down his oils, but we did sell some chevron. we had a huge gain, and i'm not going to have a began turn into a loss. it would be consistent with the fact that we just sold some. chris in ohio. >> caller: good day, jim. >> what's up? >> caller: the stock i'm wondering around is called butterfly. i know they're not currently profitable -- >> these guys told me over and over again, look, you've got the portable, you know -- ultrasound. what about ultrasound. turns out there are a lot of guys who have it. i don't want you in that dock, end of story. it's go to larry in florida. >> caller: hi, jim. is marathon oil a purchase, a cell, or a hold. >> they are making a ton of money, and i think that the president is going to come down on the refiners, and they are going to come down on marathon. the quarter will be great, but i just fear that the president is really going to decide that the private refiners are responsible for a lot of the problems, which

and from then, it was -- worked on hedge funds but i really wanted to make a mark of my own.hich for us really is people should have the same access, everyday businesses should have the same access that institutions have to hedge events. most trading is based on events. you think rates are going to go up, you do this in the stock market. we want to bring this to everyday people and let them do the same and have the same benefits. so yeah, definitely a convoluted story, but it all adds up in the end. emily: last quick question, what is your position on crypto? is it bad? a market that is already well-established, we've got high risk, high reward route why not put your money in crypto instead? luana: as a great question. i think crypto has wiped out a lot of people in the past few months. you can take the luna example. i think it needs more regulation. i think a small portion of crypto markets are regulated nowadays and you see a lot of scams just going around. easy 20% yield or something like that. in the end, they just use your money and it is people's savings. actual victims

however he may be gone and is there a way to hedge for that >> i waited for stalin, i waited for mao. they died in their beds. >> a great day, oil would go down a lot >> it would be a great day >> oil, is that what you're thinking about >> it would be a great day, period >> for the world >> thank you >> oil would also go down a lot. >> that was me trying to create needless controversy yes, i do think, but i also know he seems to surround himself with a guard, and so far, it just doesn't look like anyone has been able to level the guy >> but does it make, i mean, cooperman talking about a recession, coinbase talking about a recession, james gorman talking about a recession. as gorman said, nobody knows what the picture is going to be like in a matter of months >> we have talked ourselves into a recession. the consumer is so strong, but we just have decided the consumer's balance sheet doesn't matter, the corporate balance sheet doesn't matter what matters is the fed was stupid again, i'm trying to talk about the way they talk, not on tv on tv, everybody is a diplomat on tv, everyone is

some hedge funds are shorting tether as a bet about the broader economy.obal wafers plans to build a silicon wafer plant in texas, the biggest of its kind on american soil. the company says the factory will close a critical gap in the supply chain. it is being built in sherman, texas. that does it for this edition of "bloomberg technology." we will be back tomorrow, the arm ceo will be here, cloudflare's matthew prince, this will be fun, allison felix has a tech angle for you. we will talk to her about that tomorrow. i am emily chang in san francisco. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rate

are you looking for inflation hedges or looking outside the u.s. for hedge against that risk?> from a u.s. perspective you have to be defensively positions. i like health care, utilities, i see downward pressure in the markets overall. all decline you see today is multiple contractions. the earnings estimates have been holding up well for 2022 and 2023 but if recession is the new base case, the estimates need to come down. so i think you still need to be defensively positions. i think the fed will be successful in bringing down inflation. some inflation hedges that have been working might not hold up as well in this environment if you are going to see a meaningful acceleration. >> can the president change any of this in terms of an outlook? he has talked about a gas tax holiday and janet yellen talked about a state gas tax holiday. we are looking at potentially lowering the price of things like insulin and other measures that apparently will come out with a language in the next few days that might even pass congress. would that make a difference? >> it will make a difference a

that trade on thursday afternoon was negated without question i was able to sell some s&p futures to hedge the risk that i had in the market, and i think that's the important lesson for the viewers right now. if you're going to take risk in your portfolio, if you're going to accept risk in any form of trade, it has to be well-defined, and it has to be small. >> not a lot of risk being taken anywhere, that's for sure today. pete, i'll go to you since joe mentioned you, and the fact of the matter is there's really nowhere to hide today. energy, discretionary, materials, tech, they're all getting ripped the xle is down nearly 10% since last wednesday alone that's just stunning in and of itself but about this put buying that you're seeing today, pete. >> yeah, yeah. to be honest with you, scott, i would say this, there hasn't been a place to hide for a while now. i mean, for the most part this market has been moving to the downside with almost every single sector every single day getting into the red we've had this selloff thursday, friday, add another 600, 800 points to that downside move we'

my source also says the hedge fund has seen five times more inflows. letter to investors says quote, our recent public fund performance is deeply frustrating. our business is set up with duration to weather storms when they arise down more than 50% this year and 14% alone in may, jon. >> wow got to wonder how they pulled that off coming up, why dan's holiday party change it had course of facebook forever at adp, we use data-driven insights to design hr solutions to help you engage and retain top performers today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ space. the boundary of human achievement. the new frontier. ♪♪ eh. ♪♪ it's not time to escape. it's time to engage. it's time to plant more trees. hoo! ♪♪ time to build more trust. time to make more space for all of us. so while the others look to the metaverse and mars, let's stay here and restore ours. yeah, it's time to blaze our trail. 'cause the new frontier? it ain't rocket science. ♪♪ it's right here. ♪♪ this hour. private u.s. businesses added just 128,00

>> the ecb is hedging his bets. one thing i believe points to a really pretty rate -- raising rates. in contrast to the reserve bank of australia and the federal reserve and the u.s., of the ecb is very scared to use quantitative tightening. which the other central banks are using quantitative tightening to try and flank the interest rate calls. the ecb is rightly very concerned about inflation, it isn't going to do that. interest rates are going to take more. alix: here in the u.s. the narrative is evolving were more worried about a recession versus inflation. from what you're talking about it feels like in europe the risk is still inflation, and recession yet. >> i disagree on the recession risk frankly. i think that there's a lot of sources of resilience. first faults the starting point. we have fantastically tight labor market. pre-much everyone of the exception of china. that's good to make them very reluctant to fire people. we've got these enormous household savings which are deployed very grad -- two very gr

wizz air, they announced they were going to go back to hedging oil.e largest expense the airline industry has and so for the airline industry to try to make anything of this summer, they need to get oil under control and some sort of respite from the volatility. francine: i am asking this for a friend who travels a lot. is there an airline that cancels less than others? is there a ranking? >> i think when you start -- at the moment, it is widespread across airports. every day it seems there is a new airport struggling. francine: honestly, it is a nightmare. i need -- tom: we need a function on the terminal. type it in and you get a list of airlines that will not kick you off. sid, thank you very much indeed. the travel sector is facing a number of pressures. francine: that is it for the european market open but surveillance, the early edition is up next. what a week we have had. our great producer did a 13 best bars in london. tom: that is the perfect go to after the week way of had. a lot of our viewers will be heading into the sunshine after a tumul

and you should always look to hedge your risk against a asset classes.ay be wondering, if we are speaking of cryptocurrencies, why are you speaking of different asset classes? you have to think from a traditional mindframe when it comes to cryptos, because within cryptos you have different sectors, just like the s&p. you have gaming, defi, crypto exchanges, cryptocurrencies, and ethereum colors. as long as you have diversified against these particular sectors, which i have mentioned on your show a few times before, one should be ok above position to take advantage in this speculative space. hashem: art the same time you have the usdc, another stable coin, just because it is backed by cash and short data treasury bills, it does not seem to be facing the same problems as other currencies -- other cryptocurrencies are. could this be assigned a trust remains paramount when it comes equipped the currency? >> stable coins are an interesting situation because you basically have two kinds of stable coins. one which are allegedly fully backed, although it is uncl

and nobody quite, mike, is a perfect inflation hedge. if gold really was a good inflation hedge, it's only up 1% this year. >> exactly. >> a year when inflation exploded. >> exactly arguably what it's good at is capitalizing on negative real yields and that hasn't been the case by the way, einhorn in 2010 made a big bet on gold. he was bearish on the ability of the fed to actually corral inflation. inflation didn't really show up then if you remember he did get macro in those days. >> kind of critical, right >> yeah. >> he was one of those saying -- there was some sort of -- >> if you gave a mouse a cookie, i believe was the metaphor, which is like a children's book. >> oh, yeah, i love that book. he'll ask for a glass of milk. you don't know that book what was einhorn's last big hit? >> well, i mean there have been individual value names that he's done well on, i believe. he was bearish on moody's in the early part of the 2010s. so i think that you have to take away the macro calls from what the overall portfolio is doing, which is a lo