44
44
May 12, 2019
05/19
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BLOOMBERG
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around the table is gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa.ker massive supply in the risks, real macro and the investment grade is taking it pretty well. gershon: journalists like yourself have been scaring us for a long time with this bbb debt. jonathan: you are saying we are part of that? go on. gershon: 100%. certainly in this cycle there are more absolutes but it has not happened yet. whether they listen to you or not, they were selling. that market was widening out. people realizing that stuff got cheap. there is a difference in high-yield. high yield, people just need yield. jonathan: we can talk about high-yield. on behalf of my own program, a lot of people have come on the show and talked about buying bbb's. [laughter] jonathan: in fact, the interesting thing is there are not a lot of people in credit that are worried. it is those outside credit that are looking in and worried about bbb's. henry, you have a lot of bbb's. you have had a good year so far. ofry: we have had a lot exposure in corporate. they have been doing well. outperfor
around the table is gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa.ker massive supply in the risks, real macro and the investment grade is taking it pretty well. gershon: journalists like yourself have been scaring us for a long time with this bbb debt. jonathan: you are saying we are part of that? go on. gershon: 100%. certainly in this cycle there are more absolutes but it has not happened yet. whether they listen to you or not, they were selling. that market was widening out. people...
31
31
May 10, 2019
05/19
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BLOOMBERG
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back with us for final thoughts, gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, diana amoa.want to wrap things up with some thoughts. we wake up monday morning and immediately turn back to the trade story and the fed. what would be sufficient to get them to cut rates? that is the question in the minds of many people. do we get the answer to that anytime soon? diana: not while financial conditions remain at these levels. you need to see a more aggressive tightening in u.s. financial conditions to make the fed turnaround and see that -- and say we are looking at it and there is more asymmetry and then the next move is likely to be a cut rather than a hike. gershon: we cannot just look at the short term. there is more uncertainty today where different fed governors stand than there ever has been. are we at neutral? do we believe in the phillips curve anymore? the next 25 basis points will be market psychology. it doesn't make that big a difference to the economy. the bigger issue is where the fed goes from here. if we see inflation, will they start to hike? jonathan: let's get
back with us for final thoughts, gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, diana amoa.want to wrap things up with some thoughts. we wake up monday morning and immediately turn back to the trade story and the fed. what would be sufficient to get them to cut rates? that is the question in the minds of many people. do we get the answer to that anytime soon? diana: not while financial conditions remain at these levels. you need to see a more aggressive tightening in u.s. financial conditions to make the...
28
28
May 12, 2019
05/19
by
BLOOMBERG
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eye 28
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around the table is gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa.ker massive supply in the face of real macro risks, and the investment grade is taking it pretty well. gershon: well-meaning journalists like yourself have been scaring us for a long time with this bbb debt. jonathan: are you saying i was part of that? i think we were very responsible around this table. [laughter] jonathan: go on. gershon: 100%. certainly in this cycle there are more absolutes but it has not happened yet. whether they listen to you or not, they were selling. that market was widening out. people realizing that stuff got cheap. there is a difference in high-yield. high yield, people just need yield. jonathan: we can talk about high-yield. on behalf of my own program, a lot of people have come on the show and talked about buying bbb's. [laughter] jonathan: in fact, the interesting thing is there are not a lot of people in credit that are worried. it is those outside credit that are looking in and worried about bbb's. henry, you have a lot of bbb's. you have had a good yea
around the table is gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa.ker massive supply in the face of real macro risks, and the investment grade is taking it pretty well. gershon: well-meaning journalists like yourself have been scaring us for a long time with this bbb debt. jonathan: are you saying i was part of that? i think we were very responsible around this table. [laughter] jonathan: go on. gershon: 100%. certainly in this cycle there are more absolutes but it has not happened yet....
25
25
May 12, 2019
05/19
by
BLOOMBERG
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back with us for some final thoughts, gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa.want to wrap up some things with some thoughts. we wake up monday morning and turn from the trade story immediately back to the fed. what would be sufficient to get them to cut rates? that is the question in the minds of many people. do you think we get the answer to that anytime soon? diana: not while financial conditions remain at these levels. i think you would need to see a much more aggressive tightening in u.s. financial conditions to make the fed turn around and say, we are looking at it, there is more asymmetry and then the next move is likely to be a cut rather than a hike. jonathan: final word, gershon? gershon: we cannot just look at the short term. there is more uncertainty today where fed governors stand than there ever has been. are we at neutral? do we believe in the phillips curve anymore? that means, the next 25 basis points will be market psychology. doesn't make that big of a difference to the economy. the bigger issue is where the , fed goes from here. if we see inf
back with us for some final thoughts, gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa.want to wrap up some things with some thoughts. we wake up monday morning and turn from the trade story immediately back to the fed. what would be sufficient to get them to cut rates? that is the question in the minds of many people. do you think we get the answer to that anytime soon? diana: not while financial conditions remain at these levels. i think you would need to see a much more aggressive...
32
32
May 10, 2019
05/19
by
BLOOMBERG
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eye 32
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around the table is gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa. weaker massive supply in the face of real map or risk, and the investment grade is taking it pretty well. likeon: journalists yourself have been scared us for a long time. jonathan: you are saying we are part of that? gershon: 100%. certainly in this cycle there are more absolutes but it has not happened yet. whether they listen to you or not, they were selling. that market was widening out. that stuff got to. there has been a bid for it. high yield, people just need yield. jonathan: we can talk about high-yield. program, af my own lot of people have come on the program and talked about buying bbb's. not many in credit that are worried, it is those outside credit that are looking in an worried about bbb's. henry, you have a lot of triple b's. a lot of our exposure is ian corporate. they have been doing well. year to date, u.s. triple b's lack for the most part. bmy, our analysts liked it at 20 basis points, so we didn't take part in that. you have flows into u.s. ig. flat in loans for
around the table is gershon distenfeld, henry peabody, and diana amoa. weaker massive supply in the face of real map or risk, and the investment grade is taking it pretty well. likeon: journalists yourself have been scared us for a long time. jonathan: you are saying we are part of that? gershon: 100%. certainly in this cycle there are more absolutes but it has not happened yet. whether they listen to you or not, they were selling. that market was widening out. that stuff got to. there has been...