the hrrr has been showing rain rates approaching a half inch per hour in the north bay on friday morningl of generating flash flooding and/or debris flows across the north bay burn scars and downstream of the burn scars. a flood watch is in effect for the entire north bay starting late tonight and continuing through saturday morning. forecast rainfall totals through saturday are in the 1.25"-2.75" range for most urban locations (lesser amounts of 0.50"-1.25" in the santa clara and salinas valleys). widespread 2.50"- 3.50" amounts are possible in the north bay valleys with 3.00" to 6.00" in the coastal ranges and north bay mountains. locally higher amounts upwards of 8.00" cannot be ruled out in the north bay mountains. given that the recent model trends are to focus heaviest rain on the north bay, the santa cruz mountains and santa lucia mountains may not pick up as much rain as currently forecast. but will hold off on making any adjustments to rainfall projections until all 00z model data is available. the santa cruz mountains will remain in the flood watch for now, as a slight southwar

the hrrr has been showing rain rates approaching a half inch per hour in the north bay on friday morning, which is cause for concern as rain rates of that magnitude have the potential of generating flash flooding and/or debris flows bay burn scars and downstream of the burn scars. a effect for the entire north bay starting late tonight and continuing morning. the models generally agree that heaviest rainfall will shift north of the north bay afternoon and early evening as shortwave ridging develops over california ahead of the incoming longwave trough. but light to moderate rainfall is expected to continue across much of our forecast area during this time and local heavy rain rates may continue in the north bay, particularly along southwest- facing coastal slopes where orographic enhancement will continue. rain rates will then likely increase in the bay by late friday evening, and then south across the remainder of area overnight friday night, as approaches and front through our thunderstorms are also a cold front moves through on friday night and early morning. little in the way of post