this is the hudson valley. absolutely.itar music] every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. maybelline new york's instant eraser our do-it-all concealer conceal contour correct now with up to 12 hour moisturizing wear ♪♪ instant eraser concealer maybelline new york instant eraser concealer hi, i'm sara gore. and this is "open house." as always, we are touring some fantastic properties this week, homes that celebrate summer living, including a stop at this designer's newest project in the heart of southampton. and we explore this property that was created as an homage to a tuscan villa, plus natural materials and thoughtful details in this unique brooklyn family apartment. but first, this spectacular

one of them was, let us go to the hudson valley for example. there, most of my attention was to the dutch period of the hudson valley's history. when the dutch controlled the new netherlands, they began to report slaves from angola. the slaves they brought from angola tended to be, for reasons that are complex in the history of angola, where people who were often engaged in commerce and trade. they found themselves in the new netherlands. they very rapidly became active. they began to notice their masters were very open to anything that would increase their profit from slavery. they began to discover that they could begin to bargain with their masters. for small privileges that then grew into larger ones. that process of bargaining went on between these angolan entrepreneurial and the dutch onto printers. that -- entrepreneurs. that created a more open process in which enslaved africans were able to persuade these, their masters, that by granting privileges of various kinds, they could increase profit as a consequence. the africans very cleverl

so given all of this who stands to win in this very tight hudson valley race? >> it is really tight. statistically basically a tire right now the two and it is reflected of a district that is gonna both ways. it has been democrat, it's been democrat, republican, and it is something a little bit of a bellwether for the democrats and the republicans in the midterms but not really there a lot of districts not nearly as split as this. with the both sides haven't won the district over the last several years. but look, you can look at pretty much any poll over the last several decades. economic issues, pocketbook issues just dominates with the voter. weight much more than any single political issue or social issue normally. that is normally the case. i think that could be the case here now. arthel: let's take a look at another pole here produce that's normally the case. right now a fox news a bowl of a generic congressional ballot 54% rep republicans voters say inflation is a tough issue 61% of democrats say abortion is the top issue. and then when you pull all regis

new york a closely watched race with big implications for november, a special election in the hudson valleyng district. democrat pat ryan pulling off a surprise victory against republican marc molinaro, who focused on key republican issues, inflation and crime, while ryan campaigned on abortion rights, an issue that's been firing up key voters and could make democrats more competitive in the fall. in new york, a bitter battle between two veteran democrats is over with congressman jerry nadler defeating congresswoman carolyn maloney after a redrawn district map forced the two committee chairs to fight for a single house seat. >> new yorkers get to choose who best represents the people and values of this city. you know what? i think the voters made themselves clear tonight. >> nbc's kristin welker reporting for us there. let's bring in nbc news national affairs analyst, host of the hell and high water pot cast, john heilemann. our viewers may wonder why we're spending so much time and attention on a special election in the hudson valley. what was the significance of a swing district that went

redevelop is a progressive, hudson valley legislator. he actually wins a longtime republican seat for the state senate. >> he does. the idea of going into the state legislature was a path he laid out for himself. it was an enormous admirer. he was almost an awe of the men he liked to call my cousin teddy. his sixth cousin twice removed, so it's quite distant. but he patterned his track after theodore roosevelt. after he married eleanor, he got to call him uncle teddy instead of cousin petty. but the path into the state legislature and on board, that was modeled quite literally on theodore result. >> he has the advantage of having theodore roosevelt and his family, and woodrow wilson's official family when he serves as assistant secretary of the navy tea are gives away the bride at his wedding in new york city. and his mother and son town house that gives roosevelt smother the idea that, oh, you can live with your son forever? i'm gonna build the house that heralds gonna work on on 65th street. that's what inspired her. >> of course, that

hudson valley, this is an open seat democrats hold. biden won it by just two points. to need to win if they want to have a big wave, if we're looking at a big wave. the two issues that we're hearing about, abortion and inflation. >> hudson valley is in the 518 area code i'm from so i call that god's country. bob, we noticed this past week former vice president mike pence did something that usually a presidential candidate does. they went to a college in new hampshire, the iowa state fair with chuck grassley. he even sent flowers to chuck grassley's wife. what is up with the former president? what would be his path forward? and does he really have a theory of the case to make at this point? >> whether it's former vice president mike pence or florida governor ron desantis, virginia governor glenn youngkin, there's a galaxy of republican contenders, possible contenders who are looking at 2024 and calculating what does it look like if trump runs, what does it look like if trump doesn't run. at this point no one is entirely sure. they believe the former president based on

in the hudson valley a special election for an open house seat is being watched as a bellwether for democratsrategy. that is democrat pat ryan versus republican mark molnaro. while in florida two well known democrats are vying for a chance to unseat governor ron desantis. joining me now from pompano beach, florida, and kingston, new york, and in new york city. pompano beach is my favorite thing to say today. i'll begin there with you. you've got these two candidates who want a chance to go after ron desantis. what are you hearing from voters? just secondly, i am curious. does it look like ron desantis is vulnerable at all in the race or does he have a pretty strong lock on the governor's mansion as of now? >> when you look at polling he is ahead of the democratic candidates but this is still early and there is still time for the field to coalesce once a nominee is set here. one thing i've been hearing from both candidates and the voters that i've been talking to is that ron desantis is top of mind among the democrats in this state. they know what a formidible challenger desantis is with someo

hudson valley legislator actually wins a long time republican seat for the state senate he does. well, you know the idea of going into the state legislature was a path. he laid out for himself. he was an enormous admirer. he was almost in awe of the men. he liked to call my cousin teddy actually sixth cousin once removed. so it's a pretty distant relationship, but he patterned his political track nevertheless after theodore roosevelt later on after he married eleanor. he got to call him uncle he uncle teddy instead of cousin, teddy, but the path into the state legislature and then on to assistant secretary the navy and so on that was modeled, i think quite deliberately on theodore roosevelt. yeah a roosevelt has the advantage of having a theodore roosevelt in his family and woodrow wilson in his official family and when he serves as assistant secretary of the navy tr does serve as the gives away the bride at his wedding in new york city. in a in a mother and son townhouse near the metropolitan museum of art that gives roosevelt's mother the idea. oh, you can live with your son fo

roosevelt is a progressive hudson valley legislator. winds a longtime republican seat for the state senate. >> he does. the idea of going into the state legislature was a path he laid out for himself. he was an enormous admirer, he was almost in awe of the men. he had a sixth cousin once removed, so pretty distant relationship, but he patterned his political tract after theodore roosevelt. later on, after he married eleanor, he got to calling him uncle teddy instead of cousin teddy. but the path into the state legislature, and then on to assistant secretary, and so on. that was modeled quite deliberately on theodore roosevelt. >> and roosevelt has the advantage of having theodore roosevelt in his family. and woodrow wilson in his official family, he serves as assistant secretary of the navy. tr does give away the bride at his wedding in new york city, in a mother and son town house that gives roosevelt's mother the idea, oh, you can live with your son forever. i am going to build that house that harold is going to work in on 65th street

they saw what happened tuesday in upstate new york in the hudson valley, where a democrat won in the first real head-to-head republican on democrat battle for congress since the supreme court ruling in june. democrats exceeding expectations. here, more ads about abortion rights after an election in which they democrat made abortion rights his primary issue. let's see of student debt becomes an issue in the next 75 days. yamiche: eva, you have been on the campaign trail. how are people viewing student loans and this action by president biden? eva: this is an issue that does not fall neatly along partisan lines. i think the argument we have heard from republicans is that this is really a deal for the wealthy and that working-class people in middle -- in middle america are going to be paying for the elites. but that does not really pass muster, because you have woing-class folks in middle america who are saddled with student loan debt too. i am interested to see how this rolls out. i will say something that often happens is when these different programs are targeted, and this one very m

across eastern pennsylvania in through albany hand the capital district there, eventually the hudson valley through d.c., baltimore. a i-95 later tonight, we could see 50, 60-mile-per-hour winds. it does weaken as we get towards boston tomorrow morning. much less humid and quieter tomorrow morning. in the west, meanwhile, heat wave begins tomorrow. excessive heat warnings up for much of california, watches, as well. record highs possible. this is going to last through the holiday weekend. david? >> rob marciano leading us off tonight. rob, thank you. >>> meanwhile, our team continues on this other front, the state of emergency in mississippi, after torrential rains and flooding there. and now the capital's largest water treatment plant is failing. 160,000 people tonight without water. and tonight, these images. no water to drink or for showers or the bathroom, and now the lines at water distribution sites. these families lining up long before it opened this morning. tonight, emergency repairs now under way, but obviously, the real question, how long will it take to get them help? trevor aul

alarm since last august of plane loads coming on daily basis to westchester county airport and the hudson valleywhich is run by the state of new york and these planes have been coming in on a nightly basis and about 150 each night. they get on buses and go to wherever, including new york city and we've known this, they have gone to westchester, going into schools and for the purpose of immigration, these kids, uncompanied adults are 18, 19 and 20 year olds, they are adults, but considered minors as they go into our schools. we've known for for a long time. i've been asking president biden and governor hochul information about where they are being placed. they are going to new york city and have been for the last year, where is mayor adams and before him, de blasio, this is affecting local schools and communities, our healthcare system. this is a public safety issue. we don't know who is coming in and we get no answer. it is pretty hypocritical of mayor adams and governor of dc when we get no response. >> todd: why is the left okay with the migrant flights to westchester, which i should point out

they're seeing a district, the hudson valley, which has gone back and forth, republican, democrat.arrowly carried the district i think 51 points. but before that, it was held by a republican, john fasso. of course antonio delgado had that seat. democrats are hoping the abortion issue really pushes them over the edge seeing backlash like decisions in kansas. mark molinaro he is a republican, not a trump republican. he was very specific about saying that. republicans outspent democrats two to one in this race. they were seeing that it would potentially go to molinaro. we see pat ryan, someone looks like molinaro in physique, they're both white guys, both represent, county executives neighboring counties. they worked together throughout covid but the fact a democrat pulled out over a republican could have implications for other districts across the u.s. of course new york is a democratic state. neil: there the issue appeared to be the whole roe v. wade supreme court decision. i'm just wondering looking even across new york and even the country by extension how galvanizing an event tha

york 19 yesterday because there are so many white collar professionals who have moved into the hudson valleym home and they're voting in this election. that said will be a significant impact in most of these districts this are that are more or less toss-ups. if they split down the middle, republicans would still gain in the mid teens but our forecast of their gains seems to be diminishing by the week. >> and the senate, what are you watching out for there? i know we're talking about mitch mcconnell is worried and thinks democrats are going to maintain control. is there a surprisingly vulnerable republican right now? is it marco rubio maybe in florida or are you looking at someone else? >> right now i think both florida and ohio are mirages for democrats. i see no reason to believe that we're going to see val demings come close given that the registration patterns in miami dade county of favorable to republicans. i don't see how democrats win statewide without rolling out a huge margin there and marco rubio is quite popular in that part of the state. the surprise race could be ohio where j.d.

closely watched new york race, democrat pat ryan won a special election in a swing district in the hudson valleyefeating republican mark molinaro. ryan campaigned heavily on the need to protect reproductive rights after the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. he spoke tuesday night. >>hen the supreme court rips away reproductive freedoms, access to abortion rights, we said this is not what america stands for. as more and more kids are getting gunned down by the same weapons i carried in combat, we said this is not what america stands for. amy: in florida, the state's former republican governor charlie crist won florida's democratic primary for governor on tuesday. congress member crist will face republican governor ron desantis in november. crist spoke on tuesday night. >> the stakes could not be higher for the selection. our fundamental freedoms are literally on the ballot,y friends. a woman's right to choose on the ballot. democracy on the ballot. your rights as minorities are on this ballot. that is what is at stake in this election. make no mistake about it. because this guy wants to be pr

. >> carley: one of the key bellwether races was a special election that took place in the hudson valley between democrat pat ryan and republican mark mullen or. we are talking about new york but the republicans thought they could flip this seat and the democrats wound up winning. politico painted it this way, trump candidates are chopping up wins but facing democrat appear to have eased purity new york special election seen at the best midterm cleaning confirmed that democrats hopes and republicans fear for your prediction of a red wave may be overblown. so, it does raise the question, are republicans over confident going into midterm election? >> it pains me to say this but i think so. we had a marquee candidate who ran for governor and well-liked in the republican parties and well-liked in the region. this is a district suburban primarily and rule. this is where frankly around the country are trying to pick up momentum. it was clear the issues of inflation and the issue of crime in new york state motivated republicans, but not in the same way abortion actually motivated a lot of democ

seaboard, boston, new york, philadelphia, this is including upstate new york as well and into the hudson valleyit is today will range from the lower to middle 90s, but it is when you factor in the humidity, that is when it really starts to feel balm any outside. and central part of the country, heat indices in triple digits. we'll top 100 degrees in portland, oregon. and by the way we are monitoring the tropics starting to come alive, a 40% of our fourth named storm developing here in the coming days. >> derek van dam, thanks so much. >>> as monkeypox spreads around the world, so does the need to make people aware of the dangers. ahead, how this adult film entertainer is sharing his experience with the disease on social media to help educate others. >>> i ran twice, i won twice and did much better the second time than i did the first getting millions and millions of votes. >> former u.s. president donald trump rehashes old grievances while teasing a future white house run. those details ahead. the tempur-pedic breeze° makes sleep...feel cool. because the tempur-breeze° transfers heat away from

i think he's also another resident of the hudson valley or was visited kennedy at the return to washington morgenthal met with roosevelt in the oval office and he fed by suggesting that kennedy's close relationship with british prime minister neville chamberlain was based on their mutual view that appeasement of hitler was by suggesting that kennedy's close relationship with british prime minister neville chamberlain was based on their mutual view that appeasement of hitler was the right strategy roosevelt agreed. and then with morgan saw sitting directly across from him the president made this stackless study the startling accusation quote. i don't think there is any question, but that joe is disloyal to his country and however in 1939 roosevelt wasn't ready to get rid of kennedy indeed is he wanted to keep him he wanted to keep him in england? as far away as possible from the 1940 us presidential election. fdr worried that if kennedy returned to america. he might make political mischief and might even run for the presidency himself. and after referring to kennedy as a trader in 1939. the

when it comes to the hudson valley, politico says "trump candidates are talking up wins but heavily facedocrats appear at ease. in new york special election seen as the last best tests of the electorate midterm leaning confirmed what democrats hold and republicans feared. prediction of a red wave may be overblown." fox news digit with power rankings and republicans are still expected to win in the house, and they are favorable in the senate. but in both, it is tightening. republicans are expected to win at least by two. but if you think -- back to three months ago, two months ago, people were talking about republicans winning by 60 house seats. so you do have to wonder why. i think what it's coming down to, i think a lot of these suburban races that were really republican strongholds for a while are now more in the middle, possibly leaning left. the key indicators are that the roe v. wade decision is one that is really turning the tide in democrats favor. >> todd: joe borelli has something to say about that. take a listen. >> in this particular race, we had a marquee candidate, someone wh

a representative in the hudson valley. here in the 19th district. this is the same district as it was in 2020. a district that president biden narrowly won over former president donald trump. it is a district that donald trump won in 2016. this is a district everyone has been watching in the wake of the supreme court decision. of roe v. wade. republicans have been very keen on account executive take in this race, the way to congress, immediately. however, over the course of the last several weeks. pat ryan another county executives in the democrats have been making major headway in internal poll. and included people be talking to in both parties. if pat ryan were to win his seat tonight. when the special election. all data points you've been looking at terms of how democrats start to turn things around? have they perhaps found a crest in the red wave that sudden a lot of people are predicting headed to the midterm elections. this would be one of the clear signals yet. that something has shifted. something has changed. we don't know how much, we don'

dasha, this is fascinating, particularly the one in the hudson valley.we might see come november, head up to the hudson valley. this district, new york's 19th, stretches from here up through albany. it is a bellwether district. it flipped from obama to trump and then to biden. this race may really answer this key question going into the midterms, which party has the edge? especially in terms of those issues that motivate voters to get out to the polls. you've got the first competitive congressional race since the supreme court overturned re versus wade. what is going to motivate folks? is it going to be abortion, or is it going to be inflation? democrat pat ryan is really running on abortion access as a central issue for his campaign. he's telling voters to channel that frustration, that anger into action here, and come out and vote for him. his campaign signs say, "choice is on the ballot." he told us last night that choice absolutely has to be forefront and center in his campaign. meanwhile, his republican opponent is calling this election a referendum

the verdict out of hudson valley is that democrat pat ryan will now represent new york's 19th districtthat's where president biden won in 2020 by just 1.5 percentage points. democrats see major national political implications in ryan's surprise win because the candidate made abortion the centerpiece of his campaign. >> the sad truth, mark molinaro and the republicans oppose a woman's right to choose. republicans will allow women and their doctors to be prosecuted for getting abortions. molinaro stands with them. the sad truth, mark molinaro and the republicans are too extreme on women's rights. >> here to share insight is my three guests. there's nothing that washington loves better than a special election that may be a bellwether, and we have the proof which is some of these headlines. punch bowl, did 2022 just get reset? dems flip 2022 on its head. and hope that november won't be so bad. it's not just this special election, it's the kansas referendum, the generic ballot which has been definitively moving in democrats favor over the last few months. are things looking better? >> the e

now we know a democrat pat ryan is going to win this bell weather district up in hudson valley. it's really extraordinary to see not only him win but also him outpacing president biden's margin in 2020. this year won't be quite so bad for democrats. we may look at a black swan event occurring in realtime. the supreme court overturning roe versus wade, creating that miracle the democrats knew they needed to have any shot at holding the house of representatives. we're seeing pat ryan in this race, repeatedly emphasize that issue to try to galvanize democratic voters, connected to his military service, talking about in an early ad how fighting for americanad freedom means fighting for reproductive freedom and bodily autonomy as well. that is one of several issues. itof seems to be the biggest on that is motivating democrats that shifted the landscape somewhat. there are other issues as well, gas prices very high a year ago have started coming down just a few months ago democrats seemed to be stuck in legislative quick sand. they passed the inflation reduction act has things to brag

democrats have added thousands of new voters in the hudson valley close to work, all the people who have come up from new york city and found new homes with more space during covid. pat ryan, the democratic nominee for congress there, he's the ulster county executive, strong democratic county, that's his message is abortion. and running very differently than a lot of the candidates we've been referring to are running. there are republicans making things difficult. on ryan's main focus, if elected he would not vote for a national abortion ban. he thinks the court left it to states. if every republican in every race in that answer, it would probably be more popular than what you're seeing in the michigan governor's race and a lot of these republican races came out of the gate saying i'm for no restriction or almost none. >> abortion is protected here in this state regardless of what the supreme court said or because of what the supreme court said. new york is a place where it has not been outlawed or restricted. is it a good indicator here to be looking at new york is is this a unique plac

get ahead of, it is a very tight race, and this district, just up on the mitchell north in the hudson valley, it's a bellwether district. it won for joe biden narrowly in 2020. and one for donald trump in 2016. they won for barack obama in 2012. it was a republican held district in the house until the 2018 blue away when democrats flipped it. this is the kind of district that tells us about the national mood, and now this, race one whichever way goes, it is going to be a close race. which tells us that we are not looking at a red wave environment based on this race. now, coming into, this i will say that both party strategist from both parties downplayed their odds. because there are some meek dynamics here. democrats were leery of lights and, game by republicans, outside group came in with a pretty big ad buy. republicans were downplaying their own chances, because they know that it coincides with the democratic primary in the blue state of new york. and they say democrats turn up in bigger numbers. so there are those caveats. but regardless, this is a real test of the democrats use of the

new york, state officials say they found signs of the poliovirus potentially spreading in the hudson valleyacross the region in an attempt to detect the spread of the virus. a case of polio was diagnosed in a rockland county resident last month. if fox 13 in tampa where residents spent the night outside st. petersburg city hall in an effort to get rent control on the november ballot. locals are asking the city council to declare housing emergency over rising prices and an increase in homelessness. and this is a live look at cleveland, one of the big stories there tonight from fox 8, nfl football is back as the las vegas raters are preparing to face the jacksonville jaguars for the annual hall of fame game in canton, ohio. the exhibition game at the home of the pro football hall of fame traditionally marks the beginning of the nfl season. that is tonight live look outside the beltway from "special report," we will be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ got my hair got my head ♪ introducing new one a day multi+. a complete multivitamin plus an extra boost of support for your immunity, brain, and hair, skin & n

a lot of people in the catskill region in hudson valley care about those issues as well but i know itery well i represented that region. jon: that crime took place in the bronx, new york city is obviously having a raging crime problem right now. but not so much of state. do you really think crime resonates with voters there? >> absolutely. with a crisis and claimant of savior remember this cashless bill system, empty at the prison during culvert, still carried forth by the new governor hochul is affecting clients across this region. even in the rural and suburban areas where i am from and i am representing. it is not just new york city. you think defend the police movement to demoralize the police and police have no tools in their chest to try to keep our constituents safe. it is a huge problem in upstate new york just as it is in new york city. jon: even in san francisco devoted to recall the liberal progressive people do seem to be putting their votes to work to try to stem the side. >> obviously we wish we had a recall statute of devoted out kathy hochul and would also like to hear

the 19th district in new york, hudson valley, out to the cat skills and look at how the district hasnt for biden barely in 2020 by two points. go back to 2016, it went for trump by seven, so it was a trump, biden district in a normal midterm climate it favors the out-of-power peat. this looks like a good setup for the republicans. normally the out-of-power party does well in midterms. republicans would look for things to go back closer to where they were in 2016 so it's going to be an interesting special election because if the case that democrats are making, the political landscape shifted in late june with the supreme court ruling, that their voters are more motivated and more galvanized and likely to show up. could the democrats win this and make this a close race in this special election? if you get any result like that tonight, that would certainly buttress the case the democrats are making, the midterm climate changed. this is the race we'll pay the closest attention to tonight. new york redistricting, pitted two 30-year incumbents, carolyn maloney and jerry nadler against each

new york's 19th race, hudson valley, there is a democrat versus republican and i could say a lot about think their ads speak for themselves. listen to how their ads convey what they are trying to say. >> pat ryan graduated from west point and risked his life in combat. he fought for our families, for our freedom. >> and freedom includes a woman's right to choose. how can we be a free country if the government tries to control women's bodies? that's not the country i fought to defend. >> whos to blame for inflation? liberal washington democrats. their spending feeds higher prices at the grocery store while their energy prices drive up prices at the pump. more terrible ideas from democrats. >> mark molinero, a record of listening and problem-solving. he will keep spending under control. lisa: see what they did there? inflation on the one hand and abortion on the other. this is a swing district, a place where resident biden won by just a few points. it is a gauge of who is voting and how they are voting right now. amna: checking that and so much more, thank goodness y're staying on top of

what happened there, just to get the lay of the land, the 19th district located upstate in the hudson valley, in a district that some would salines to the conservative side, especially late, this was a campaign where national issues really took center stage during the campaign. especially after roe v. wade. the republican candidate here, marc molinaro, wanted this to be a campaign about the economy, rising inflation, rising crime. on the flip side of that, you had the democrat pat ryan who made it very clear that this campaign was about a woman's right to choose. early this morning, i spoke to the communications director for the campaign, she told me they did notice a surge in energy in the district as of late. she said, though, heading into the final days of the campaign, they still felt somewhat cautiously optimistic, but she said in the end, what they were putting forth really resonated with voters. last night ryan was speaking to those who came out to support him, saying that the campaign was about securing fundamental rights. >> when the supreme court ripped away reproductive freedoms,

he was actually elected to a district -- in the hudson valley, because of all the redistricting in new york. he ended up moving to and running in this district. there are no constituents in this district who jones currently represents. he's listed at the incumbent, but this is an entirely new district for him. he's an entirely new congressman for the constituents in this district. and he's running in third here -- [inaudible] and i'm just checking in to see if you have any numbers. we don't in the 17. and i'm just going to look to see. we do have our first numbers in the special election here. let me get to that. it's gonna take me one second to call it up on the screen. but let's get to the special election here. here we go, okay. we are getting our very first report here -- so we can get a sense of where this is coming from here. the republican here, okay, now we have a ton of votes here. i'm guessing we just got -- what just happen is the democrats here -- holster county executive. and so it was just reported in all-star county. it is the single largest -- of the district. it's abou

>> new york's 19th race, the hudson valley, there is a democrat, pat ryan versus mark molinero. i think their ads speak for themselves in a special election. look how their ads convey what they are trying to say. >> pat ryan graduated from west point and risked his life in combat. he fought for our families, for our freedom. >> a freedom includes a woman right to choose. how can we be a free country if the government tries to control women's bodies? that is not the country i fought to defend. >> who is to blame for inflation? liberal washington democrats. spending feeds higher prices at the grocery store while energy prices drive up prices at the -- energy policy drives up prices at the pump. >> mark molinero, a record of listening, problem-solving. he will keep spending under control. >> abortion on the one hand, inflation on the other. the tones were very different. this is a swing district. this is a place president biden won by one point or a few last time. the map is going to change so we will have a different race in november but it is still a gauge of who is voting and ho

one final, if temporary result, in new york's hudson valley, democrat pat ryan, a combat veteran campaigningn abortion rights, won a special election, beating a republican and expectations in a closely watched house race. and joining me to discuss last night's primary is one of those winning candidates, congressman-elect pat ryan of new york. congratulations, congressman-elect. you want in a swing district you were not expected to win. why do you think that you did? pat: i think we stood up loud and clear and said, this ia referendum on freedom, on choice in the country, certainly in this community. and people responded overwhelmingly to that and sent a resounding message. and i think so much of this was just being clear and unequivocal in our values and our principles, and doing it in a way that's unifying. and so to see my community, where i was born and raised, respond in ts way in this moment, i'm so proud. lisa: you know, since last night, the cook political report has changed how it sees the midterms, saying now it believes that democrats are diluting republicans' advantage. one sugges

so if think about's coming up to hudson valley, make sure you stop here and visit it. so let's talk about fdr's court-packing scheme. so, john, we'll start, what were the circumstances that head fdr so frustrated with the court? and talk about why did he try are, what did he try to do to change it? >> well, i think you have to go back a little bit before his presidency and remember that we're in the great depression. the stock market crash in the tall of 1929. concern in the fall of 1929. and coincidentally, during that term president herbert hoover had three supreme court appointment opportunities. and he made great appointments. no denying that. and it's the luck of the draw whether a president gets vacancies and the chance -- president trump got three, president hoover had three. franklin roosevelt elected in 1932, inaugurated in '33. during that first four-year term got zero, as you mentioned, paul. he had a supermajority in both the house and the senate, and there was an attack of legislation on the problems of the depression. the volunteerism of the hoover area w

quick plug, anyone coming up to the hudson valley make sure you stop here and visit in. back to this subject at hand. let's talk about fdr's court packing scheme. john, set the scene. what were the circumstances that made fdr so frustrated with the court. when he is done, why did he -- and what he did he try to do to change? >> i think you have to go back a little bit before his presidency and remember that we are in the great depression the stock market crashed in the fall of 1929, coincidentally during that term president herbert hoover had three supreme court appointment opportunities. he made great appointments, no denying that. it is the luck of the draw if the president gets vacancies. president trump got three, president hoover got three. president roosevelt in 1932, inaugurated and 33, and that first four-year term he got zero. as you mentioned paul. he had a super majority in both the house and the senate. there was an attack on legislation in the problems of japan -- the torpid voluntourism of the hoover air was replaced by the new deal. the new deal ran into a

we have seen it in special elections, specifically the special election in the hudson valley in new york talked about last week. but we have seen it in a number of other redder districts, where the republican turnout just didn't match what we had seen in 2020. so that is one factor, increased democratic -- democratic enthusiasm, and really the political scene, trump himself doesn't want to leave the stage. but it's also true that what were seeing from candidates is that republican candidates specifically are embracing him and his theory, the big lie about the election. i think that starting off a bunch of voters, many of whom republicans had wanted to pick up in this election on the issue of the economy. but instead, what they are seeing is more of the trump chaos that many of them voted against in 2020, even as they weren't particularly excited about voting for joe biden. lisa: it so interesting, democrats are supposed to be entirely on defense, but we are seeing some moves that speak of offense to me. president biden is going to have a primetime speech on thursday from philadelphia. wh

but the district we are fake -- we are paying attention to is in the hudson valley.y evenly divided district. biden won it by two points in the last election. this is a place where we are going to get our first road test on the messaging, especially on abortion. democrats leaning into the issue of abortions. republicans, leaning into the economy and inflation. again, it is a special election, it is in august, so we have to be careful to put those caveats out there. it certainly can give us a sense for what voters, how those issues are playing with voters in the swing districts that republicans absolutely need to win if they will have a big night in november. amna: what are you watching? annie: when you look at the primaries, and this is a rare week where there are some big democratic primaries, for the last few weeks it has always been focused on the republican side, but with the democratic primaries, there are some big tension points. one is with sean patrick maloney. he is the head of the democratic congressional campaign committee, the top democrat who is in charg

. >> it is in the hudson valley, in the catskills, the 19th congressional district and the democrat isappen. that was supposed to show you that this is the ultimate swing district. this went for joe biden by a small margin in 2020. had gone for donald trump by a small margin in 2016 and voted further back for barack obama. so in many ways it is tracked with the country over the most recent presidential elections here. and so we've been talking about these special elections potentially, especially since that supreme court ruling over turning roe v. wade. raising the question has democratic enthusiasm gone up. we have seen the generic ballot and get tighter in the special elections potentially offering us a clue. so we'll be paying attention to this one tonight. and then this is the back drop. these are the other recent special elections and you could draw a line, that supreme court ruling that overturned roe v. wade happened right here. so there was a special election in south texas in the 34th district and this is a very heavily hispanic district here, and you see biden had won it by f