hugh johnston, let me begin with you. you strike a fairly optimistic tone, but you think that the market is relatively close to fully valued and if you're looking for an entry point it might not be here. am i summarizing your view correctly? >> you're hitting it right on -- nailing it right perfect. yeah. this is great. the fed has done a great thing. they set the stage for an extremely good 2025, whether we're taking a look at the economy, earnings, s&p 500 earnings have a shot at being up 15%. the fed will be cutting rates, long-term interests, likely to come down some and mortgage rates also. be patient. that i think is in the cards. stock prices should do well. that's the good news. the bad news, or not so bad news or not so good news anyway, is just as you say, is, tyler, is that the markets had a big move to the upside and as i do the numbers and crunch the numbers, we're over valued, or interestingly enough, the s&p is almost exactly where i had forecast, with some statistics, where it would be at the end of 2025.

economist hugh johnston one of the more optimistic members says the config rag of economic and financial facing investors for 2025 is quite positive. lower rates and higher earnings ahead with the main question being valuation. he thinks those are elevated and need to come down. 50% of our 27 respondents think the s&p 500 is over priced for a soft landing. 47% saying they're correctly or under priced. this is not all that bearish for this group which is bearish on stocks. how about the economy? 53% see a soft landing around where that's been. 36% say a recession is on the way. and here are the fed expectations. our group differing from the market. 84% say the fed will cut by 25. that compares with a 65% probability of a 50 in the futures market. 3.7 is the year end. almost a percentage point higher than the market is priced with 3.3 being the neutral rate. the longerer term investor you can be chill about this, 25 or 50 won't matter as much as long as the fed gets it right over time, bringing rates down to avoid a downturn. 74% think this rate cut is in time to save the soft landing. guy