this humphrey hawkins testimony when it was named for humphrey a nd hawkins the two authors of the law that required the fed chief to give testimony. when alan greenspan was fed chairman, you'll find out what he was thinking twice a year. now you have got her talking all the time. the forecast for the economy comes out four times a year. she just spoke with the imf. bout valuationsa being stretched in the loan market, none of that is new. we wait and see if there is a mistake. >> very quickly before we turn our attention to bank earnings, janet yellen has a dashboard and we may do what is on it but we have no idea how much weight she's giving to each of the indicators on the dashboard. should we have a better idea of what those things are? presumably, if lawmakers, republicans and the house got their bill passed requiring policy-based or rule based policymaking, we'd get more. taylor wouldohn love that. my guess is that is not going to happen. one of the things you find in the difference between the neoclassical vbieiew or keynsian view is there is a discussion versus rules debate. mon

janet yellen goes before congress next week for the humphrey hawkins testimony.uring which she speaks for the fed as a whole. what we hear -- what will we hear? >> many of her views are out there. i suspect we will hear a repeat of some we have already heard. i expect her to be an advocate of sustaining or maintaining the current level of monetary stimulus for a while longer. certainly and 2015. probably biased the second half of 2015. i suspect she will repeat that monetary policy is not necessarily the first line of defense against bubbles, or against financial instability risk. those would be the themes i would expect janet to reiterate next week in congress. >> dennis lockhart, thanks for being with us. matt miller, that's it from here. we will send it back to you in new york. >> thank you, michael. north carolina's governor. we will continue our coverage of the national governors association meeting in nashville, when "bottom line," continues. ♪ >> the national governors association four-day summer meeting is underway in nashville. on the agenda -- creating

can get as detailed as the humphrey hawkins at, or lack of detail, why can we not have the rule and havel at the fed except that? if you are not willing to accept it because you are concerned about your independence, i do not want to put words in your mouth, is that one of the reasons why you do not want to sign on to the bill? not aware of any literature that establishes that adopting a central bank, whether it makes it public or not, that adopting rules is the most desirable way to run monetary policy. theou might want to talk to europeans about that and other economists as well. >> what they do is the ecb has and given a great freedom they have to find a price stability objective. >> here is my last request. if the bill is not good enough, i would like to know when the fed will call for a more -- >> time. the time has expired. the chair now recognizes the gentle lady from new york. >> i would like to ask you about the fed's exit from monetary stimulus. as he testified, the fed is currently on pace to wind down its qe3 purchases by the end of october. right now, the market is expecting

new in that regard, what we will want to see is when janet yellen testifies next week in the humphrey hawkins testimony, whether she gives any indication that the fed is thinking the timing might be behind the curve and we will have to wait until september to get the next forecast to see what they think that. in the meantime you have got to pay attention to job state. >> michael, thank you. we have a lot more on the fed minutes coming up. we will get a take on when the whenay make a ruling and they had to the next fomc meeting on july 30. antonio percent c, portfolio manager at pimco, will join me from california. that is at the bottom of the hour on bottom line. president obama arrives in texas in a few hours. he is facing a growing crisis facing tens of thousands of undocumented children arriving in the united states. phil mattingly joins me now. an emergency funding request has been made. is congress willing to give the president nearly $4 billion? >> like most things that are sent to capitol hill from the white house, this is not tech weakening a warm embrace from either party. there's is

in the testimony we used to call humphrey hawkins, how do we balance a stronger economy without scaringts by suggesting a rate increase? at this hearing, she speaking for the entire fed. her colleagues are telling me the song remains the same. ani would expect her to be advocate of sustaining or maintaining the current level of monetary stimulus for a while longer, certainly into 2015 and probably biased to the second half of 2015. >> if the numbers are better, the real question is why would that be? a debate overn to whether you believe the data. is gettingy the fed close to its goals, unemployment and inflation could be close to what they want by the end of this year. grapheds fed president it. we are almost there. he sees a possible overshoot on inflation next year. a lot of people will want to know why yellen would disagree. that is where the article comes into play because of her tracer as a politically liberal policymaker who would prefer to err on the side of going too far to help the unemployed. and that may color views of her testimony, particularly those who think the fed is a

we preview today's big humphrey hawkins testimony. and talk about the fed's next move.e break down the numbers. and tell you if now is the time to buy financials. all this, plus retail sales data. as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen. along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. in studio this morning, paul mcculley chief economist at pimco who got really in to bowling. you know, there are like jokes about, you know, bowling it's like somebody who says oh, that girl, she's in a totally different league. if they're talking about bowling, that says something, right? if she's out of my league, they mean it's a different night. you know bowling -- you're a bowler? >> yeah. >> are you good? >> he must be good. >> have you done 600 in three games? >> yeah, i have. >> you have? >> here's the most important point. when you bowl the ball. >> yeah. >> do you bowl it straight like i do just straight down or do you curve it around so it's almost in the -- in the

what has long considered and can be called the humphrey hawkins semi address on the senate side will

i've been sitting at humphrey hawkins hearings since 1981 in the house and senate. they are very elucidating. my first question deals with probably your most difficult issue as fed chair, the anal-old balancing test between fighting inflation and going to full employment. it's a hard tight rope to walk, particularly as conditions change. we are now in a period of change. obviously, unemployment declined, thankfully. obviously, the economy is beginning to pick up. as a result there's a lot of pressure coming from many for you to not only accelerate the end of qe-2 quantitative easing and to raise rates. i would urge caution very strongly. to me the greatest problem this country still faces is lack of good-paying jobs, decline of middle class incomes. that's with us very, very strongly. worldwide labor markets still keep a lid on inflation. your stated target of 2% ten years ago, if people heard the stated target was 2%, your predecessors, their jaws would drop, but we're not even at that. i would just ask you to be very cautious before you taper the qe-3 program too

i've been sitting at humphrey hawkins hearings since 1981 in the house and senate. they are very elucidating. my first question deals with probably your most difficult issue as fed chair, the anal-old balancing test between fighting inflation and going to full employment. it's a hard tight rope to walk, particularly as conditions change. we are now in a period of change. obviously, unemployment declined, thankfully. obviously, the economy is beginning to pick up. as a result there's a lot of pressure coming from many for you to not only accelerate the end of qe-2 quantitative easing and to raise rates. i would urge caution very strongly. to me the greatest problem this country still faces is lack of good-paying jobs, decline of middle class incomes. that's with us very, very strongly. worldwide labor markets still keep a lid on inflation. your stated target of 2% ten years ago, if people heard the stated target was 2%, your predecessors, their jaws would drop, but we're not even at that. i would just ask you to be very cautious before you taper the qe-3 program too

so if we can get as detailed as the humphrey-hawkins act, or lack of detail, why can't we have a rulee you all at the fed accept that? and if you're not willing to accept it because you're concerned about your independence, is that one -- i don't want it put words in your mouth. is that one of your reasons why you don't want to sign on to the garrett-hig garrett-highsinga bill? >> i'm not aware of any literature that establishes that adopting a central bank, whether it marks it public or not, adopting a rule is the most desirable way to run monetary policy, and i would say that many -- >> might want to talk to europeans about that and a lot of our economists as well. >> well, what the europeans do is the ecb has been given a great freedom, and the they have defined a price stability objective -- >> all right. >> -- and certainly do not -- >> my last request. if the garrett-highsinga bill isn't enough i would like to know when the fed are will call for a -- >> the tonight of the questioning is a little more energetic today obviously from congressman hieissinga, grilled by the house ser

i've been sitting at humphrey hawkins hearings since 1981 in the house and senate. they are very elucidating. my first question deals with probably your most difficult issue as fed chair, the anal-old balancing test between fighting inflation and going to full employment. it's a hard tight rope to walk, particularly as conditions change. we are now in a period of change. obviously, unemployment declined, thankfully. obviously, the economy is beginning to pick up. as a result there's a lot of pressure coming from many for you to not only accelerate the end of qe-2 quantitative easing and to raise rates. i would urge caution very strongly. to me the greatest problem this country still faces is lack of good-paying jobs, decline of middle class incomes. that's with us very, very strongly. worldwide labor markets still keep a lid on inflation. your stated target of 2% ten years ago, if people heard the stated target was 2%, your predecessors, their jaws would drop, but we're not even at that. i would just ask you to be very cautious before you taper the qe-3 program too

from earnings to the economy, fed chairman janet yellen is delivering the humphrey hawkins testimony. they will listen for hints on when the central bank will begin to tighten. they released last week the buys. and also we are talking about what is in the papers. get a copy of "the new yorker" today with monday morning in a minute. but there's the first real long interview with janet yellen in a long time and we'll take little pieces away from that. >> the humphrey haw kkins tuesd and wednesday is delivering -- i don't know if jack lew -- that's what you're going to hang on? he may not say that much. >> stan druckenmiller will be on, chris christie. carl icahn will be on. and we have a mystery guest. >> right. >> toward the end of the day at 5:15. you're not that excited about this one. >> no, i'm not. >> do you know who mr. guest is? >> i do. >> he's not a mystery to you. >> it's not. >> it's a mystery to me. >>> and whiting company is buying kodiak to become the largest producer in north dakota's shell. and aecom company is acquiring urs for $56.31 a share in cash totaling $4 billio