i want to head to the markets ask where julie hyman can give us more direction. julie: a janet yellen waiting game. she is scheduled to speak at the economic club of washington so it looks like markets are waiting for her comments to perhaps get more direction. we have had some commentary from other officials over the past 24 hours. ar. heard from leo brain we heard from dennis lockhart, he says he does favor raising interest rates is month. in addition to hearing from those officials, we also heard from adp. it's payrolls report saying the u.s. economy added 217 -- 217,000 private jobs. this was precursor of the jobs report on friday. thoughts for investors to consider. p -- wirp. at w.a.r. the likelihood the futures market is pricing in another increase. we have seen an increase in the probability. it stands at about 74%. that is something to consider as we going to these remarks from janet yellen. that's take a look at the treasury market ahead of her comments. we are seeing an increase in yields. 2.18% help in part by jobs figures. a bump in the u.s. dollar v

i want to bloomberg's julie hyman with more on numbers. julie: contractions are a negative surprise. economists had estimated 15 and inalf, expansion manufacturing. instead, we got a reading of 40.6, even after we have the market manufacturing number 15 minutes ago that showed an expansion, a better than estimated number. a couple of different readings. prices paid rising less than estimated, a reading of 35.5. at the same time, we got construction spending month over gain that gained 1%, .6% estimated here. overall, it looks like the isn manufacturing report is considerably worse than had been estimated. we have been seeing for some time waning manufacturing numbers. this is the biggest decline since june of 2009 in manufacturing. betty: it is knocking stocks off the peak. julie: if you look at what is going on with the u.s. averages, let's take a look. we've been seeing a bounce back from yesterday's decline. heading into what is traditionally the strongest month of the year. legks are taking a small lower. let's look at the action to se

julie hyman, thank you so much. julie hyman with the latest.amy inocencio at our news desk. anorak, a major victory over is like state. iraqi troops have recaptured the the government complex in city of ramadi. the defense secretary criticized the iraqi forces saying "they had no will to fight." two people killed and nine people injured in a market in cameroon. women suicide bombers were obvious to be members promised militant group boko rum. also japan's prime minister shinzo abe has made a landmark apology to korean women forced into serve as sex slaves for the japanese military in world war ii. japan also agreed to establish an $8 million fund to compensate victims. -- former -- been these suspected arson of the boyhood home of former president been closed.has the estimated damage to the houses they $5,000. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world. i'm ramy inocencio. scarlet? much, ramyank you so inocencio. we have so much more coming up. construction took off in 2015, but challenges remain or i

julie hyman has a look. julie? watching have been markets go down. the s&p, the dow, and the nasdaq all down today. and it unexpected build in inventory, and it is down by about three point 4%. the declines we are seeing in oil today that we have seen recently mean that the tw-year performance in oil is particularly notable. you can see a decline of nearly 63%. that is a record two-year decline for oil prices. haveow that commodities been one of the big stories of the year, and i mentioned that inventory. if you take a look at the terminal, i show you this throughout the year because it is a remarkable one. barrel a 100 million gap, so when you talk about supply putting pressure on oil prices, the chart tells the story. and the other thing i went to tell you about is the 10-year note. we are seeing it little changed and goldman sachs has a yield that climbs to 3%. with the increase in rates from the federal reserve, that is what we're going to see happen. finally, taking a look at the basket ofrsus the currencies, that is about a quarter of 1%. that

scarlet: julie hyman, thank you so much.ow over 100,000 people typically attend the near city ballet's performance of "the nutcracker." let's go to bloomberg radio, where cory johnson and carol massar are lacing up the ballet shoes. carol: i want to welcome everyone from bloomberg tv. we were just telling our radio listeners, this is one of my favorite things to do around the holidays, to go see "the nutcracker" at the new york city ballet. kathy brown is executive director of the new york city ballet, joining me and corey. it really is one of my favorite things. i did it with my mom. i have done it with my daughter for many years. "the nutcracker," talk to us about this season and how it is going. kathy: this season is going really well. you are typical of a lot of our audiences, who come year after year. they bring their children, and their children bring their children. a great tradition. carol: it does not change much. i go, i know what i'm going to see, and it feels like going home a little bit. kathy: it's a really won

really hyman has a check on some company movers. -- julie hyman. julie: if not now, when?t is what oprah winfrey is asking in her new weight watchers had. watchers ad. it is up 21% today. through the close yesterday, the stock has risen 185% since that announcement. it is extending those gains today thanks to oprah once again. we are watching solar stocks as well. a note that was positive on the group -- sun edison taking more steps to shore up its balance sheet. the company's try to reduce its debt, selling stakes in a power plant to a joint venture. it is swapping equity for $336 million worth of exchangeable notes. these moves designed to try to help that balance sheet. it is up 5%. we are watching fairchild semiconductor. the company got a bid to buy at 21 a share. now, the group that made that it is revising it. the bid came from china party g. holding -- the shares were up 3.3% today. finally, looking at gamestop. a lot of questions about the company's business model going into the end of this year. gamesls physical video and the online was have become much more popu

thank you so much, julie hyman. we will be back with her in a little bit. this afternoon mark crumpton is back with us. mark.e back, mark: thank you so much. president obama, headed home after a two-day visit to paris for that international climate summit. terrorism appeared to push global warming to the sidelines. the president met with the and the downing of a warplane, threatening to undermine a global coalition against the islamic state. president's effort to enlist the climate sector appears to be paying off. another 73 companies made pledges to reduce emissions and worries this week, bringing the total that's joined the toinistration's initiative 100 54 companies. among those who have signed on, withue, amazon, and dupont an international climate change agreement. helping to fight the islamic the forces will be able to conduct raids, free hostages, and gather intelligence. secretary carter says they will unilateralconduct operations into syria. rahm emanuel has fired his police superintendent, gary mccarthy, following the release of a video showing a

let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. to hold onto this rally. julie: and oddly in the face of manufacturing numbers that came in worse than estimated. it's the biggest contraction since 2009. the major averages do in deed remain higher. it's not only a rally. it's a broad-based rally. it is largely stronger on volume we has in recent days as well. all of the groups in the s&p 500 are higher. health care is doing the best. that is in part because of barclays technology. consumer staples and consumer discretionary each up about the same, about .8%. it's interesting that we got the data but stocks are rallying. is historically the best year for stocks. alix: you have to show you on the good stocks. just stocks. its asset classes. julie: right. you don't often see stocks and bonds going up in tandem. , this is a market that seems to be affected by worse than expected manufacturing data. the yield is down 2.51%. we know investors are scrutinizing every economic report and trying to extrapolate what the fed is going to do. the

betty: thank you, julie hyman at the markets desk.bloomberg business flash, some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. the price of oil hit a six-year low today with texas intermediate trading below $35 a barrel. the last time it was that low was in the middle of a global recession. glut is getting larger. u.s. stockpiles are now at their highest level since 1930. meanwhile, mexico's largest construction committee may set up the largest bond default in two decades. won't pay $31 million in interest on bonds due in 2024. the company is working at a cost cutting and restructuring plan. ica as been hammered by mexican cutbacks in infrastructure spending. you can always get more bloomberg business news at bloomberg.com. have beenbt crisis we watching very closely, there may be a bright -- breakthrough for puerto rico's debt problems. the island's main electric utility is such a reached a tentative deal to restructure $9 billion in debt according to people with direct knowledge of the situation. erik schatzker joins us now

julie hyman is standing by. it has been like this pretty much for this year.where stocks are going. >> it has become even more so as we get into the last quarter of the year. oil is leading declines for sure. all major averages down. , driven by what is going on energy. have the imap up here. energy far and away the worst part arming group. consumer discretionary, the only group in the green. start to get more holiday shopping numbers and they are largely positive and it is definitely not enough to tip the scales. we have iran talking about increasing exports being a priority. oil now at its lows of the session. continuing that march downward. >> do we blame well for the poor performance -- blame oil for the poor performance? >> yes. have seen this big upswing as oil has resumed its decline and accelerated its decline. it is now near a two year high. it is a 0.4 correlation. oil is driving the story at the time. today look at your performance with the s&p once again turning negative, energy stocks down 25%. if the stocksear to end the year negative, this is wh

julie hyman there at the markets desk. let's check the headlines with the bloomberg first word news. running greeley has more. brennan -- brendan greeley has more. brendan: the president traveled to mclean, virginia, to meet with officials from the terrorism center any updated the nation. president obama: at this moment our intelligence and counterterrorism professionals do not have any specific and credible information about an attack on the homeland. brendan: the president is trying to reassure americans the government is doing all it can to protect them. the u.s., the u.k., and france, are going after the islamic state's money, asking the united nations security council to find and cut off the source of funds. they want to freeze the assets of middlemen to facilitate the legal oil trade. house speaker paul ryan says congress will be ready to move on obamacare in 2016. speaker ryan: when we return in january, the house will put an obamacare repeal bill on the floor and pass it, and put a on the president's desk. the bill

julie hyman has the latest. ie: we're looking at stocks that have been declining today.t seems to have more to do today with mario draghi than janet yellen. now hitting just about the lows of the session for the three major averages here, all of them down by more than 1%. it would be tough to pin that on mario draghi since he spoke early this morning new york time. it's a broad-based selloff we are seeing today, we have energy stocks, health care stocks, financials, all trading lower and accelerating the decline. on.day has gone interesting situation here, without a sharp catalyst necessarily as we head into the afternoon. earlier affecting european stocks much more sharply than u.s. stocks, coming out with a quantitative easing program which he did not extend the size, he only extended the duration. many market participants were surprised. i want to point out the movement we are seeing in transportation stocks today as well. the dow transportation average down 1.7%, its lowest in about two months' time. more bad news from the railroads today, credit suisse has been hold

first, let's had to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. we have this selloff going on today and it has abated to some extent. major averages up off the lows but still seeing a significant selling across the board. a little bit of it is a fed hangover as people try to figure out what happens. a lot of it has to do with commodities, which we will get to in a moment. the question in investors minds turned to what is the fed going to raise to how quickly are they going to continue? let's go into my bloomberg terminal and look at swaps. this is the historical curve going back to last september and here is what it looks like now and goingg around 1% all the way to 2% in three years time. a little more of an aggressive curve than what the fed itself has been signaling. still relatively gentle in terms of its trajectory of increases. an interesting move in the treasury market as yesterday, we saw moves higher and today, they are coming back down. we are hearing from market participants that there's a lot of demand for treasuries as the curb -- cur

i want to head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest. we saw this selloff after the yellen remarks. >> it really began after she was done speaking. at the same time, she did not say anything particularly different than what she has been saying. she emphasized her confidence in the strength of the u.s. economy. a rateugh to stand increase. there is a data dependent clause, but nonetheless staying steady. we are seeing stocks fall to the lowest in the session. look at the s&p 500 for more of a snapshot of what we have seen. it is pretty steady throughout the day. much has changed. when she stopped speaking was really when the drop started to accelerate. take a look at what is suffering the most. i want to point out energy and what we are seeing in particular today. down 3.3% the county for the biggest percentage decline here, though it is a broad-based decline. with energy down that much, oil is the other big story of the day. oil prices were lower even before she spoke. after, the losses began she got weekly inventory numbers, which showe

julie hyman has the options insight.today is kevin kelly, chief investment officer at recon capital. we are seeing this rally today but i know you have noticed some underlying activity in the options market that is not so bullish necessarily. >> today is a great day to put on hedges if you wanted to do that. you are seeing two times the amounts of what's being traded than calls. if you take a step back and do a year of you on the mix, you can see it is trading 18% higher this year alone. if we look at the first quarter of the year, we saw the vix averaged 17.5. now at 16, it is good to put on hedges, especially going into first quarter earnings in january. it first quarter this year is at 17.5, what quarter be? julie: when you see a movement like that, broad and anticipation, doesn't mean that it gets pricey to put on those hedges? >> the closer the strikes are, the pricier they are. volatility is higher right now at 16, they are seeing it priced out into january. so it is more expensive, but that's the price you pay for

i'm mark hyman.the securities hyman. hello. i'm mark bth - hud audit hello. i'm mararhyman.the securities and exchanan commissisi regulates publicly-held companies. these are the businesses that have public shareholders.the s-e-c has complex rules that companies must follow. break the rules and they risk facing civil or criminal penalties. in some cases, executives could find themselves in company must issue an annual report . . . an overview w of the company's financial health. it muststinclude dited financial statements accounting for every single penny.of course, washington doesn't follow the same rules. there are entire agencies that spend billions of dollars annually without little or no accountability. the department of housing and urban development spent more than 40 billion dollars this past fiscal year. the hud inspector gegeral has concluded the agency's records are so sloppy and incomplete that it's literally impossible to audit. the i-g found four major discrepancies.hud didn't use generally accepted accounting principles. the same accounting stan

julie hyman is joining us. mark barton scared off joe weisenthal, maybe.ughter] winning three times in a row p julie, kick it off. julie: a lot this year about the outperformance of megacap stocks, masking the outperformance of merely large-cap stocks. i did not do this alone. it will snow bloomberg news gave me the idea for this chart, and also helped me set up the index for the chart. this looks at the russell top 50 index, the most mega mega-caps in the u.s. stock market, versus the s&p 500. this is the differential between the two, all the way back to 1999. as you can see, typically the mega-caps underperformed. but this year, the percentage point differential between them is 2.2%. in other words, the mega-caps outperformed the s&p 500 by 2.2%. on a day when we once again see stocks like amazon and alphabet hit records, i was reminded of this outperformance of the mega-caps. it pays to be big this year. betty: mark? bek: should the ecb, betty, loosening policy? i am going contentious today. as you might know, some of the policymakers of the ecb, such a

senior market correspondent julie hyman standing by.s john forng me rhees.- vo i am looking at the major averages falling to the lows of the session. we have seen them bouncing along at the lows all day. it is a quadruple witching day. how are you saying that play out so far? john: absolutely. it has been a spooky week with the fed, with the announcement on wednesday, the hike of way five basis points and the quadruple witching today on friday. the real theme is more volatility returning to the market. and continued momentum to the downside at least in the beginning. there is a lot of headline risk right now. you have turmoil in the middle east, russia, turkey, etc. there is a lot of uneasiness in the market and that is where you see volatility creeping back up. that being said because of that i want to be a buyer of premium. long volatility, long option. you are looking at the russell 2000. under par -- under performed by 4%, down 6% on the air. the s&p is down 2%. it will lead any pullback. i'm looking at two january expiration. i am

we will send it to julie hyman who has the latest. close in oil, i wanted to come back to it. a dramatic move today. oil was already trading lower before janet yellen began speaking. as she continued, we saw it make the lows of the day. we have seen some degree of dollar strength today. now down 4%, a touch below before rebounding a little bit. today, we got the weekly inventories data out on the u.s.. analysts were looking for a drawdown on the inventory. what you are looking at on my bloomberg terminal, i seasonally where we see oil. it only goes back 30 years. here is all of the 30 years and where oil has been trading over the course of the year. it gives you an idea of what an outlier this year is in terms of the amount of supply out there. highest level of oil inventories this year for this time of year since 1930. it is sort of an extraordinary level of supply. take a look at oil for the year to date as well. below $40 per barrel, we saw a trade around that level in mid-november but have not in oil do this poorly since the big d

thank you so much, julie hyman.lose out a week in which the s&p 500 is up 3/10 of 1%, barely a gain at this point. the nasdaq is still clinging on as well for a gain as most of the euphoria from the fed rate increase, the beginning of normalization, has begun to fade. still ahead of bloomberg markets, the freezing of the credit fund has others on edge. ♪ scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. high yield mutual fund firms want to separate themselves from 3rd avenue and it's moved to freeze the credit fund. they are assuring investors that their funds are or diversified and easier to sell. investors are not convinced they pulled $3.8 million in the past week. cory johnson and harold massar have more. carol: welcome everybody to bloomberg radio. i want to bring in peggy callen's, our personal finance reporter of bloomberg news. high-yield funds are like, and those who run one are trying to distance themselves from 3rd avenue. week: we spent this talking to a lot of high yield mutual fund managers. we looked at mor

scarlet: thank you, julie hyman.in toronto and vancouver homes are higher from last year, according to a survey. for a look at how the new canadian government may respond to the increase in home prices, we are joined by our canadian tv anchor pamela ritchie. tell us what this report told us, what did you learn? you.od to talk to we learned although the bright spot in canada's economy, some would argue, is the housing market, toronto and vancouver have seen skyrocketing prices for some time. the question was what role are foreign buyers playing in this market dynamic? some of the data was released today and shows particularly in vancouver there are more foreign buyers in the market, almost .oubled from a year ago toronto also significantly more foreign homebuyers, up to 4% of the market. therell was never that was anything illegal about this, people are allowed to invest in homes around the world. it was simply for the data to be released by this housing agency. the problem is that it has been really increased in qual

betty: thank you so much, julie hyman, the markets desk. puerto rico will default on $37 million due to two of its agency bonds this friday. the governor speaking anin san juan, put the blame on washington, saying congress forced this decision. joining us is laura keller. what happened? laura: basically, the governor came and said that for the payment do january 1, we will not be able to make everything. would be 13 bonds that normally do for payments and 11 of those agencies will get payments, 10 two of them at least partially will not. we wereut i thought making progress in perjury go. what happened? we are in some cases. electric authority is moving along with an agreement -- it is taking longer than a year but they are moving along with the agreement. there are all of these different get classes and right now perjury go does not have enough money to pay everything. betty: why is the governor blaming congress? laura: i think he is looking to run faster find some sort of solution. there are a couple of different ideas on the table. the tr

brendan: julie hyman has one of today's several movers.ie: if you look at what is going on with oil prices, we got economic data out of asia that has been helping push oil lower. iran saying that it is a priority to expand exports and the saudi arabian budget numbers for a decline of 3%. this is coming off of a strong week for oil but not meant to last, apparently. 36 85 is where we are on oil prices. and energy, natural gas prices rising 10%. cold weather might finally be on its way in a more sustained fashion which might be good for natural gas demand. there is selling in the metals as well. gold prices and copper. linking it back to the asian economic data. and copper being the most linked. gold prices moving lower today. not quite wholesale commodity selling but pretty close. >> some people might be sated on turkey but markets continue to move. coming up the next half hour of bloomberg television, we tell you about the absolutely worst performing commodity. and we look at why mark zuckerberg possibly in to offer free internet around th

let's go to julie hyman. this rebound we are seeing in the market?larger than the decline we saw yesterday. it's a significant bounce back today in the major averages. all of them are approaching 1%. it's up the broad-based rally. usually, when you look at the ordership in a rally declines, it stays steady but there has been some bouncing around today. the top spots in right now in terms of percentage gains but it is tied with information technology. you see all green on the screen as the industry groups are up. energy is now up the least, it's given up the strength from earlier today. i mentioned technology and the big cap tech stocks are individually contributing the most. amazon is extending its already fairly spectacular gains for the year to date. apple is rebounding after what has been underperformance recently an alphabet, known as google, is up 1.5%. they are holding their own. betty: retail is getting a boost? julie: it's the more traditional retail pit we heard craig johnson talking about this being a fairly strong holiday season. it was no

right.: julie hyman, thank you so much. of technology, it is becoming an important part of our lives in many different ways. in the coming year, we will more tech available right on our wrist. we will now go to bloomberg radio. carol: we welcome and invited -- we welcome everybody on bloomberg tv. we do have a lot of fun. sometimes you bring in these crazy watches, look great, costs lots of money. stephen: third 2015, it was the smart watch and the apple watch. almost exactly a year ago, we had the crisis with the swiss franc that caused some problems. i think we saw the between that and the apple watch, sales were differently down this year, more than they have been for any year in the past decade. cory: he saw a handful of always happens, things that were not well regarded before hand suddenly pop in value. stephen: the vintage market this year was credit a big surprise. people didn't know were that was going to go. prices have been steadily rising for a few years now. this are, we saw some big records. we saw a watch auc

i want to head to the markets desk were julie hyman is standing by. julie: i'm happy to start celebrating right now. betty: break out the champagne. julie: market participants are not celebrating. selling onng some the last day of the year. all major averages are down by a half of percent this year. -- one half of a percent. right now it is looking like a loss on the year. the year-to-date performance of the s&p 500 right now, a decline of about .25%. tolooks like we are going post a loss for the year and the worst annual performance if it keeps on this track since 2008. getting back to today's session, if you take a look at my terminal, consumer staples, information technology, telecoms, utilities. not necessarily a lot of rhyme or reason. and as -- it is another day where volume is low. last trades before the end of the year. betty: volume is also low in oil but we are still seeing some movement. julie: the movement in oil has been curious and interesting today. what we had earlier this morning was a big leg down in oil prices without a particular c

let's go to julie hyman. julie: stocks are coming off the highs of their session a little bit. we're seeing the major averages around half a percent each. because of disappointing manufacturing numbers and we are taking a second leg downward after initially slumping. here's what is working and what is not. followed by consumer discretionary and financials. telecommunications shares, those of the drags on the major averages as we see them wavered to some extent. david cole any of this standout? note, barclays has a recommending buying. johnson & johnson, eli lilly and merck all is higher. using these companies to beef up the drug pipeline instead of financially driven m&a is preferable. things like tax inversion for example. we have seen some high-profile ones of those as well. fairfield innovation will support feeling pricing. we will likely supersede drug pricing concerns on election season rhetoric. maybe some of that will die down. also wanted to look at some individual drag on the overall average. -- records and percent. credit suisse saying apple has been cutting in suppli

let's go over to the markets desk and a julie hyman.mixed bag in terms of the reasons why the let's start with 3-d systems. this stock is volatile but it's rising today. to a buy was upgraded from equal weight and the company is restructuring to in significantly reap -- improve its profitability and the shares -- 3-d systems has been gaining today with a dramatic increase in profitability over the past few years due to strategic moves by a previous ceo. let's see what those shares are doing it looks like we are seeing a gain of nearly 9% in those 3-d systems shares. navistar is up nearly 5% today. aheade out with earnings of what analysts had been anticipating. sales were down by 17%. the ceo said there is more room to cut costs. the recovery in the shares today is also notable because it fell sharply earlier in the month after morgan stanley downgraded it and concerns about its cash position.it seems as if this new today was reassuring to investors. going into the holidays, we heard from fedex in terms of its profit. it said profit bea

julie hyman has a latest on the markets. excited because there is suspense on the year to date are -- the year to your return. as betty mentioned, we are hovering near the lows of the session, lower than typical volume as we are in a holiday week. , the yeark at the s&p to date, which we have been checking frequently, it is now in the red. now, down .4%. i want to check on apple as well. that is one of the stories we have been watching. we always watch apple. it is such an enormous company. but it has been underperforming the s&p 500 and is set to have its worst month since january 2014. if apple's going down, that is an issue for the overall market. it is down 5% for the year to date, worst year since 2007. betty: one of the worst years for crude oil? julie: not the worst. last year, in percentage terms, were as worse than this year. a reboundare seeing of 1.5%. it is down 30% for the year. look at the heat map. the end of the year has been particularly problematic for oil the last few years. here you have this year's novem

first, let's go to the markets desk with julie hyman. julie: rising to the highs of the session, the s&p now up 1% year to date as we see this burst of activity for the major averages, all of by more than 1%. it is a broad-based rally. you will see a lot of green on your screen. information technologies leading the gains but health care and consumer discretionary our neck at that. financials have been strong throughout the day. we should mention, this is on lower volume, of course, being a holiday week. volumes are 40 percent below the 100 day moving average. technology is the best performing group today, individual stocks lending the most to the gains include apple, which is bouncing back after what has been a week month for the company. amazon has gotten a lot of positive analyst commentary. microsoft gaining 1.5%. david: we tend to see some rotation at the end of the year with the worst performers. is that happening today? a little bit, and that tends to happen. netflix and amazon doing well today. chesapeake energy, consol energy, so

julie hyman, thank you so much. happy new year. one other market we are keeping an eye on his germany. let's take a deep dive into the bloomberg terminal. i'm talking about the dax. it may 27 new highs this year, the first around mid-january. consistently throughout the first quarter. april beforeked in falling into a bear market in august, than revisiting it in september. since this low, the dax has recouped half of its losses. during this stretch, volatility more than doubled as well. when you add it all up at the end of the year, ending up 9.6%, almost 10%, beating the stoxx 600, the broader gauge for european stocks, and the msci all country world index. a lot of optimism over what the european central bank's quantitative easing means for risky assets like equities, even as people price in damage done by volkswagen's emissions cheating scandal and what that means for german manufacturing overall. as we close the books on 2016, let's set the scene for the u.s. economy with john herman, at mitsubishi securities. the debate really

david: thanks very much, julie hyman. we look forward to talking to you in about an hour and 24 minutes from now. matt, give us your thoughts. we are focused on these numbers. but there are a lot of other indicators that come out of the jobs numbers about how strong our economy is. matt: one very big and very important indicator is the auto industry, and we have seen record sales the past three months. that is going to continue. one of the things that is very good as far as the jobs outlook is that auto jobs are increasing. that is going to continue well into 2016. stephanie: you have to think about inflation, though. i do not want to say it is a foregone conclusion, but when i think of market participants, is it going to happen? it is the pace at which it happens and wage increases. while we are still seeing wages stagnant, that is the price of labor. carl: we got a little bit of a -- we shouldwith have confidence because it looks like we are barreling through 5%, which is probably the neutral level of unemployment, and

let's go over to the markets desk and julie hyman. we see things recovering a little bit. julie:

for more on today's activity let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest .: interesting that this rally is happening after we got wo

. >> we want to check in on today's activity, let's head over to the markets desk julie hyman has theelcome back. after the rally that we

julie hyman has more on the news today. activity, not the very much. you have the fed but since then it's been choppy. i had been doing this

julie hyman has been keeping track of all the moves in the markets good to the downside once again.sk on yesterday, off today. the major averages

. >> i am mark hyman. is there another recession around the corner. there are worrisome economic indicators of what may be lurking ahead. 94 million people are still not in the labor force less than 63% of the labor force is actually working. there are other serious problem's. existing home sales and new home sales have fallen. housing starts on rental properties. u.s. factory orders have been down for months. 15% in the past year. the last times they felt like this was leading into the 2001 and 2008 recessions. corporate profits are trending that have fueled jobs growth are on the steady decline. it began 15 years ago. this mirrors the dramatic increase in deficit spending in washington. the national debt was 5.5 trillion dollars in washington and today it nearly $19 tr >> i'm alex trebek. if you're age 50 to 85, i have an important message about security. write down the number the lock i want to talk to you about isn't the one on your door. this is a lock for your life insurance, a rate lock, that guarantees your rate can never go up at any time, fo

julie hyman has put that list together.d. ♪ , bloombergback intelligence put out its 50 companies to watch in 2016. we are focusing on a few retailers. julie hyman is here with us. we looking at? watch atmpanies to various catalysts. doesn't mean it will be out performers, but could be in the news. alibaba is one of them. the company has a stake in a chinese retail store called "in time retail or co- it has an option to increase that stake and could come in 2016. that is something that could its exposure. it is interesting because alibaba, the proposition was, it was going to get exposure in the united states. this is its big entree. the biggest catalysts in 2016 should not be increasing its exposure in the u.s., but in china itself. brendan: this is a bricks and mortar? matt: yes it is. we have at other retailers do that as well. a little bit of bricks and mortar front. brendan: that exposes alibaba even more that they are basically a play on the chinese consumer. the biggest story in economics in 2016 as well be chinese c

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media bias exists.to comment, go to behind the headlines dot net.i'm mark hyman. 3 it's safe to say wayne state's looking for a rally. at 2-8 the season hasn't started the way they wanted. but tonight they hosted a mount marty team that has only one victory. and that was by forfeit.an opportunity to take another step towards 500 for the wildcats! 1. in the first half..wayne state's jordan cornelius with the three.. wildcats up twenty-four to ten. 2. later in the first half.. adam moon with the nice hook shot... wayne state up twenty-six to twelve.3. mount marty hanging in there early.. jalen hurley with the hook shot that banks in.. wayne state still up twelve.. twenty-six to fourteen.4. moon again.. has the hook shot going.. wildcats up twenty-eight to fourteen.5. mount marty's anthony stransky with the three. cuts the wildcat's lead to eleven.. twenty-eight to fourteen.6. towards the end of the first goodwin with the three..wayne state would lead at the half thirty-seven to twenty-six and...the wildcats win 87-57! 3 the muskies are on a roll. over the weekend they defeated youngstown tw

i'm mark hyman. is there another recession around the corner?there are worrisome economic indicators of what may be lurking ahead.94 llion people are still not in the labor force. that's a record high. less than 63 percent of the labor force is actually working.there are other serious prlems. existing home sales and new home sales have both fallen. properties -- the affordable option for lower-income americans -- have tumbled.u-s factory orders have been down for months. 15% in the past year. the last two times they fell like this was leading into the 2001 and 2008 recessions.corporate profits are trending downward.and start-up companies . . . that have often fueled jobs growth . . . are onon steady decline. . itit a decline that began 15 yeararago.this mirirrs the dramatic increase in deficit spending in washington.the national debt was five and a today, it's nearly 19 trillion.3 by beating battle creek ponca blocked a potential battle of ranked teams in the shootout on the elkhorn finale. the 4-3 indians looked to stay hot against the 7-0 warr

scarlet: great context, julie hyman.merging markets index had been declining in the lead up to janet yellen's comments. if you look at the bloomberg terminal, you can see the losses in the lead up to yellen's speech. we are off our lows, but still, a drop of .4% for one day. the setup was fairly negative on expectations that janet yellen the fediterate that would proceed ahead with liftoff as long as the data supports that, and it does not seem to have changed the tone. alix: we are seeing some thing similar ripple through the currency market as well. you go to the bloomberg terminal and you can see the u.s. dollar against the ruble, the dollar gaining in strength, which means the ruvell is declining against the dollar. 11:00, thery, 11:30, bottom put in for that part of the session, and then a steady decline for the ruble, and of course, the lows of the session here. lowest level since mid-september. definitely, it seems like emerging markets in part is where we are feeling some of the shock or the ripple effects. the q

some breaking news with julie hyman. just and the number of americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level since july during the week of christmas. 270,000 was the projection from and 257,000 was the number last week. there may have been some swings typical from the holidays. we have seen the labor department changes methodology to account for seasonal variations. a spokesman said there was nothing unusual in the state level data, but the jump could have been caused by the volatility introduced when those numbers are adjusted for seasonal variation. not clear exactly how to take see number, but as you can behind me, we are seeing a little bit of a downturn in the insurers and it looks like it is off a cliff, but remember it is very low volume and only down about a quarter of 1%. we are indicating a lower up -- open and we have some stocks to watch as well, including vodafone in the u.k., shares are up nearly 2% after a report that the company was in new merger talks with liberty global.

for a looklower but at the options, here is julie hyman.ning me is the derivative strategist at in km holdings. ,he trade that he sent us today we have been talking a lot about retail today. you been talking about the mastercard numbers. arniture was kind of surprise. you're looking for the next catalyst. there is a conference coming up. talk about wyatt can be important for retail. >> 11th two the 13th. it is really the next and first catalyst that will get a very good look, potentially at holiday retail sales. she is saying that 55% of retailers have been more aggressive on sales around christmas. a slightly negative data point there. be on the cautious side. ross stores, for example. you put it into that potential catalyst. or set up some shorts. julie: i was looking at the year to date concerns and retail has done well this year. partly because amazon and netflix are the two best performers in the retail index. so how do you work the trade when you are looking at that retail conference and timing at. >> the retail index up almost 15% ye

d hyman on with us. i want to see doug terreson and ed hyman on together.uld be fun to have them talk about energy and the overall economy. we have another one that knows a little bit more about commodities than we do. there are plenty of smart people in this building and this is one of them. bringing it back to the oil price. looking at the commodity story broadway, i think we are trying to -- everybody is trying to figure out, where does the price go from here? when you talk to people, how wide is the dispersion? >> i would save you look at the forecast on the terminal right now you would assume the market is quite bullish. the lowest forecast we have four q1 is $43 a barrel. not gonergue they have away to adjusting their forecast, because if you look at that forecast over the last year, it is steadily dropping every time. they are always lagging behind the market. to answer the question, though, where we are seeing $10 a barrel previously, is there any reason why it cannot go there? hard to tell. if you look at the fundamentals, you would argue it has to

i'm mark hyman. is there another recession around the corner? there are worrisome economic indicators of what may be lurking ahead.94 million people are still not in the labor force. that's a record high. less than 63 percent of the labor force is actually working.there are other serious problems. existing home saleleand new home sales have both fallen. housing starts on rental properties -- the affordable option for lower-income americans -- have tuled.u-s factory orders have been down for months. 15% in ththe past year. the last two times they fell like this was leading into the 2001 and 2008 recessions.corporate profits are trending downward. that have often fuelededjobs growth . . . are on a steady decline. it's a decline that began 15 years ago.this mirrors the dramatic increase in deficit spending in washington.the national debt was fifi and a half trillion dollars in 200o. today, it's nearly 19 trillion.to comment, cordes: most nurses are tough. they're problem-solvers. they like making things better. people don't have access to healthcar

i want to head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest on the janet yellen effect.ut it was really the ecb effect. julie: that was the surprise element of the market. if you take a look at u.s. stocks, we're not at the lowest of the session but close to there. nasdaq fell close to 2.1% before bouncing off the bottom. it's been a curious day because if you look at the action over the course of the day, we saw european stocks fall sharply after mario draghi expanded the length of quantitative easing but not the size of quantitative easing. u.s. stocks turned lower but not by that much. they made a bit of a run of recovery but have been accelerating since . the mario draghi news was well in the rearview mere by the timely release started to see more of a dramatic decline in stocks. the news was such that we really felt a lot of repositioning and people struggling to figure out what it all meant. if you take a look at the group suffering, is all of them right now. health care declining the most today. not necessarily any particular news headline. it's a long list of gro

to comment, go to behind the headlines dot net.i'm mark hyman. wake up in your first home. wake up in a home with a new address. wake up in a home with no address. and protecting it takesscommitted support. thanks for watching your fox 28 news at nine.have a great night. what? riding our bikes across the state? getting my masters? no! paying off your house early! oh! that was easy! awhile back we talked with veridian credit union and they got us into a 10 a a done loan! refinancing lowered our rate yeah, it was really easy! and we saved enough money to take this trip to europe! veridian's been great, helping us with all of our finances!