test, i would hope not. tom: i think you're hoping wrong. i think a lot of people did. hink they knowingly went? tom: yes, absolutely. absolutely. look at -- jon, i don't understand this. if the top score two goals, they're still behind. jon: tom, what you just said was highly speculative. we know what novak djokovic did. i don't know who is turning up no a game or not. i think if you're negative and tested and have no symptoms you can go to a sports stadium. lisa: there's a larger point. to break in here and the doctor was saying this cognitive disdense where a lot of people treat it as the common cold and in the emergency room people are seeing it different. how do you think people are taking a laissez-faire attitude of covering up and not exposing people because they see it as something minor versus something they can get. and it comes to how can we communicate? it distance have to transfer to a severe illness to have an impact on society. [. jon: what is the message when one of the world's biggest tennis players behaves like that? lisa: i think it's completely irresp

i have not heard bob talk like this for quite a while. tom: i agree. great about bob michele is he writes and speaks incredibly clearly. you will ask him questions, shut up, and listen. jonathan: a very different bob michele in the last few months. lisa: we are looking where there is a lack of age. we keep hearing this -- lack of age. we keep hearing this. there is a lack of clarity. you wonder at what point cash becomes a flexible tool or fit is a combination of assets. jonathan: the cio and head of global fixed income it jp morgan asset management. you will remember, a liverpool fan as well. tom: it is the first thing that he will mention. jonathan: in a commercial break that is all he will talk about. tom: he probably wants liverpool to put david ortiz's number up. jonathan: of course, that makes sense. how many liverpool fans do you reckon know who ortiz is, tom? [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business

tom: i woke up and i watched the first 12 minutes and went back to bed. jonathan: the need to spend some money. tom: is it ppi thursday? we are making jokes, but this is seriously. retail friday, where we are on thursday. why is this important? the data matters to the vice chairman to be and to us. jonathan: good morning to you come up four on the s&p. yields unchanged. 174.64. the euro-dollar reclaiming 1.1463 and up .2%. a lot of the calls on wall street talking about dollar weakness. we will see the weakening as people price in these rate hikes. 8:30 am is the key figure. job claims. morgan stanley says they do start seeing signs of the supply chain disruption peeking out and then starting to ease some. i am focused on the idea that we saw ism drop. 10:00 a.m., hearings begin on capitol hill. how much does she talk about letting banks be versus trying to clamp down and govern them more closely. how much does she emphasize inflation? at 1:00, planning to sell $22 billion of notes. how much do we start to see pushback at a time when the yield curve on the

tom: can i -- lisa: yay. tom: i've got an answer. can i? lisa: tom keene.om: if we come back and sustain and adam poses 3%, that's a problem. lisa: it is for rich guys for sure. we can go into all of those. jonathan: you see how many gloom scenarios that lisa has lined up? [laughter] lip i could -- lisa: i could keep us going. jonathan: i know. she keeps can rattling through them. up 16 on the s&p. lisa: joy. tom: oh, it's gloomy out. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden gave a blunt -- ukraine at a news conference. he expects vladimir putin to loosen after assembling 100,000 troops on the ukrainian beard. president biden says that nato allies are divided. now, president biden's bid to push votes to write legislation has collapsed. two key democrats brokered with their party to kill the bill's chances. the president says democrats may have to break up in order to get any part of it through congress. for the second straight months, banks in china have cut their borrowing costs. the one-year rate was decreased by 10 points to 3.7%. and american a

tom: i guess so. an: you have noticed that a lot of corporations have gone that extra step further in terms of testing and vaccine requirements before the government made the big push for a vaccine mandate. tom: clearly in the united states, that is the tradition. we mentioned austria and the asian countries where there is far more of a government statement. in the history of medicine back over 200 years is for private response. jonathan: there has been a meeting this morning with secretary blinken and his russian counterpart, survey lavrov. -- sergei lavrov. he is speaking right now and calling it an interim meeting here we will have separate news conferences. we will hear from secretary blinken between now and the next 35 minutes. tom: there is a triangulated moscow, berlin, and kiev. jonathan: the most important headline, survey lavrov saying -- sergei lavrov saying that secretary blinken said he was happy with the meeting. it is a low bar at the moment. lisa: it is also really telling went summit h

tom: i am glad you are here to trance -- in parliament. tom: i am glad you are here to translate.athan: i am struggling to translate. [laughter] lisa: is that a translation? ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. any moment now, numbers from morgan stanley dropping across the bloomberg. 4q eps coming in at $2.01. the wealth management number that you wanted, tom, revenue $6.3 billion. the estimate, 6.2 $7 billion. equity sales and trading revenue , 2.86 billion dollars. the estimate, $2.49 billion. that is a nice upside surprise. a softer on fic, $1.23 billion against an estimate of $1.24 billion. just some of the numbers pouring in from james gorman's shop. tom: we are diving into them. sonali is looking at them. we will give you the one ratio i have been following, which is return tangible common equity. they rounded up to a 20 percent. 20% is not 19%. jonathan: the stock just about turning positive, up 1.6%. lisa: i am further will be a lot of comparisons between the eq

tom: i will show my cards. it is the easiest way out for them because they are crushingly data dependent. i'm going to go to diane swonk and in what we will hear from her this afternoon. jonathan: simple question lisa. can run off to the bulk of the lifting for the fed? lisa: some people are saying they should not even touch the balance sheet. think about fred dudley. there are a lot of questions that they can't answer. i love what steve said in his note earlier. it really goes to this feeling of a lack of conviction and a lack of certainty with respect to fed communication but also economic data. tom: i saw the same comment. i'm going to send a vet bill. jonathan: futures up a little more than 2% on the nasdaq 100. a bounce on the s&p 500. yields higher by a single basis point. crude positive. a time to talk about down in washington -- a ton to talk about down in washington. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the "first word news," i am rick a group to -- i am ritika gupta. -- all but certain to hold its benchm

tom: i don't think they will open the olympics. e something -- didn't you mention this where they would not allow clapping? lisa: and cheering. tom: why do we think they will open the olympics? i don't think they are. jon: coming up, the cio of pws america. he will weigh in on the market and the massive turnaround we saw on the nasdaq just yesterday. the nasdaq this morning up .6%. on the s&p 500, up 19. up .4%. from new york on radio and tv, for our audience worldwide, lisa, tom, and jonathan. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> the aim of the fed is not an unintended consequence. what they're looking to do is tighten financial conditions. >> they need to do at least four or five rate hikes this year. >> right now they are too stimulative, and the economy, especially inflation, is too hot. >> we don't have a really good experience for the ability of markets to calmly go through a tightening cycle. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: chairman powell just a few hours away. good mor

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene, ppi a little bit later this morning. all the sudden, tom: -- all of the sudden, business inflation. a 9.8 statistic is still jaw-dropping. jonathan: will governor brainard become vice chair brainard in a few weeks' time? we have not tom: -- tom: we have not talked about this. i think brainard is less well known. it will be interesting to see how she responds to some of the tensions. jonathan: i think we are ready to go in a couple of months. lisa: and they are ready to go after that. you're seeing four rate hikes priced in for 2022. the key issue is what happens after that. people are expecting that you are going to see fastest pace of inflation for this producer prices in decades. however, people are expecting it to peak, and what is the trajectory of it falling back down? the fed has acknowledged they have no clue, and does anybody else. jonathan: how much will gross decelerate? the near term weakness we are seeing in places like the airline business, delta out this mornin

tom: i looked at it over the weekend and i just got -- i just don't get it. jonathan: did you almost say "i've got better things to do?" tom: these unvaccinated. jonathan: i understand. tom: then to me there is no debating. they represent australia. jonathan: that is the final world for you? from new york, this is bloomberg. bloomberg. jonathan: the nasdaq cannot get break, down another 4/10 of 1%. the s&p 500 negative about a 10th. the underperformance is absolutely riddle. we take more weight off that indexed -- brutal. we take more weight off that index. 25 basis points higher in a single week. all of the talk about the fed rate hike, four hikes from them and citibank and jp morgan. if this conversation about banishing reduction, the start of so-called qt, there was some discussion that may be that announcement would rub place -- replace a call for a rate hike. tom: i get the overlay of the balance sheet dynamics but i would overlay that with the possibility that we get better growth and persistent higher inflation that is unacceptable to all. jonathan: tha

every time i opened twitter, that is all that was there. tomwas so upset, and it is confirmed this morning, thank you to the general and who confirmed what i observed. coffee at mcdonald's skyrockets to $0.87. jonathan: i love the transition there, tom. we are talking inflation with emily wilkins. senior. i don't get wordle. emily, do you get wordle? emily: i absolutely get wordle. how else what i post an annoying great of squares on my twitter? tom: emily wilkins joined us, excellent on wordle, and also what the biden administration will do one inflation. a cover article this morning about inflation. all this is is a blame game. there is no other way to put it. he's got an economist at treasury who is pretty competent. what is secretary yellen telling him about the blame game of going after apple or name the corporation because it is their fault? emily: the biden administration came out initially saying the reason we are seeing this inflation, it is just temporary, it is due to covid, we are going to go back down. you have seen them back off o

next i have tom from sky. thank you. secretary of— you. next i have tom from sky. t - you. next i have tom from sky. thank you, secretary of state. what is i you. next i have tom from sky. thank you, secretary of state. what is the i you, secretary of state. what is the public _ you, secretary of state. what is the public health justification for ending — public health justification for ending the requirement to self—isolate if infected and if the government brings that forward, is it prepared — government brings that forward, is it prepared to do so against the guidance — it prepared to do so against the guidance of the who during a global pandemic? and given the suggestion that today's announcements have only been made _ that today's announcements have only been made given the political difficulty the prime minister finds himself— difficulty the prime minister finds himself in, do you as health secretary offer him your unqualified support— secretary offer him your unqualified support or— secretary offer him your unqualified support or are you like rishi sunak goin

i that tom can -- i bet tom can. futures down seven on the s&p, negative a little more than 0.1%.g, it is quiet. this month, anything but. tom: russell crowe celebrating ash party winning the australian open, no doubt. what i love

i would rather long biotech innovation. tom: adam, how do you respond to what i'm going to call fed policy parler games? everybody is in the parlor sitting there coffee. john is better at this than i am. to me, the parlor game is out of control. is it? adam: for sure. there is excess capacity, there is a hockey league for people who follow every word these people say and memorize it yet have almost zero ability. of course you are right. it doesn't even really make sense to look at the interest rates in equities anyways. i will call that the jr. varsity team. what you see is expectations are being priced in, far different from a few months ago. that won't last in terms of the increase in expectations. i don't think the fed is going to hike four times this year and four next year. i think they are going to have to be much more cautious in some of the pricing elements as you get on the others of the worst part of the shortages. i think people are going to focus a lot on labor participation in labor shortages as a complete picture

tom: i am in the timeout chair. jonathan: when 'bramo let's rip on us, seriously. me back after a couple of minutes and you just feel beaten up. it is brutal. tom: crushed. jonathan: that is why she is so angry when she comes back. lisa: am i angry? i always say it with a smile. jonathan: down more than 2% on the nasdaq, down 1.5% on the s&p. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden has what he said was a great call with european leaders on coming up with a unified position on russia and ukraine. he tweeted that they discussed joint efforts to deter further russian aggression. the u.s. says as many as 1800 troops could be sent to europe to help bolster defense against russia. north korea has testfired more missiles this month then at any time since august 2019. it warned the u.s. it might end its five-year halt on tests of nuclear devices and long-range missiles to deliver them. johnson & johnson forecast 2022 sales that beat estimates. the drug unit accounted for more than half of sales last year. unile

i don't think so. tom: i agree.ver the function is, we used it yesterday and what it means for a phenomenal gdp to come in. the glide path gives you extended out in an imaginary state to 2024, get you to a successful fed policy and that is what they are betting on and it is like transitory perhaps is still in play. jonathan: you can have your own debate on and we need to get our hands around what the chairman thinks about the situation. when you listen to the call of the committee, they still believe that inflation faints into the middle of the year. does it fade enough to back of the four interest hikes. lisa: the reason they back from transitory because some of the aspects of transitory have fed into consumer expectations, wages, fed into some of what we have seen. it has a self fulfilling prophecy. then you have the zero covid policies in china that will continue some of the delays. how long does it take before it becomes damaging and the path of getting to the lower rate of inflation comes catastrophic for certa

i think tom is— acceptable or unacceptable. of whether she reveais— tom is right the question of whether she reveals new information will be important. — she reveals new information will be important, but i think she will leave — important, but i think she will leave a — important, but i think she will leave a lot to the judgment of others — leave a lot to the judgment of others about whether behaviour is acceptable, except a bull, whether things— acceptable, except a bull, whether things breached the ministerial code _ things breached the ministerial code. ministers, oliver dowden, for example. _ code. ministers, oliver dowden, for example, the chairman of the conservative party, saying that parliament will hold minister to account — parliament will hold minister to account. it doesn't really have a mechanism to hold the prime minister to account _ mechanism to hold the prime minister to account. it is the conservative party that — to account. it is the conservative party that must do so. it really will be — party that must do

i would expect it to cool thereafter. tomitically, with that scenario, are you optimistic corporations can adapt and adjust to a new inflation regime? gregory: i think they can. you are talking earlier about companies that are increasing wages at a higher pace. if you look at the most recent conference board survey, they noted that businesses were planning higher wage increases for this year, the highest since 2008. this is nowhere near the types of wage increases we were seeing in the 1970's and the 1980's, which was a period of very strong inflation. jonathan: a bit of a technical disruption with greg daco wrapping up his thoughts on wage negotiations. had a brilliant question from a bloomberg subscriber, the best questions come from the audience. can you distinguish between a broken market and a tight labor market? let me ask that question. can you distinguish between a tight labor market and a broken one? lisa: i think you have to define what broken means. a lot of people have been looking at the numbers that have been co

i that tom can -- i bet tom can. futures down seven on the s&p, negative a little more than 0.1%.his morning, it is quiet. this month, anything but. tom: russell crowe celebrating ash party winning the australian open, no doubt. what i love here is the battle you have outlined, the parlor game of rate increases and all of that devolving back to economic growth. how do we know? we are going to be friday or next monday with a lot more data under our belt. jonathan: we are expecting it to be softer and payrolls. you may even have a negative number. will that change the rate hike conversation in any way? tom: it is going to be asterisked by omicron, no doubt about it. you see 2% gdp maybe something for q1. how do we frame the second quarter gdp? maybe we begin to see that exact one week from now. jonathan: the new consensus on the street becomes five hikes. lisa: really, the question is, is this as good as it gets? at a certain point, are we going to get better growth ahead than we have seen over the past decade, or is this the peak, and is the inflation going to decelerate growth any

i tell you, tom, we had good times together but difficult times. richard and i, we didn't have difficult times. we just had a lot of fun. senator daschle: well, it's a -- senator reid: when we were in the legislature. senator daschle: richard lives back in nevada. i'm sure you talk to him. senator reid: yeah. he's living a really good life. senator daschle: well, i can't -- i'd love to talk to you about more of your professional life from the time you left that time to the time you came to the senate. i want to talk about the senate during the time we have. i'm afraid we're going to run out of time if we don't. i want to move, if i can, to life in the senate, the circumstances we face today, the challenges that the majority leader of the united states senate faces as he attends -- attempts to govern, first, and, of course, provide party leadership in the caucus and in the congress and in the country. it is a multifaceted job. made harder, i think, today than ever before by circumstances that didn't exist 25, 30 years ago. tell us a little bit about

they are dragging their feet, and i don't know why. tom takes a certain courage, and you will see that from vice-chairman brainerd as well. lisa was an early victory today. you and i just can't compete. we mentioned the letter g, the letter m, and lisa nailed it, today's word is gloom. jonathan: i didn't know that wordle only did one wear today. i did not know that. lisa: i am not going to get involved in this. i'm not going to spoil it for other people. people have their moments of joy, their pockets of joy in a very difficult year. let them have their wordle. [laughter] jonathan: this is a moment of joy in a gloomy world. tom: windows wordle -- when does wordle go away? jonathan: i hope pretty soon. up 76 on tens after the monster move, about 25 basis points higher. yesterday the move was about 30 basis points or so. we had a move on twos as well. that curve is just a bit steeper. tom: i am watching it carefully into the morning. we don't need to micro analyze that, other than to say the market is gaming out where we are going to be not

i love tom brady. last week on the nasdaq was the worst week on the nasdaq going back to march 2020, but remember, it only had four days. it was the longest shortest week of all-time. futures in .2%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden reportedly may -- unrest in rain. the president is considering -- unleash on -- growing concern that russia will attack ukraine. boris johnson faces bracing for an outcome of an investigation into reports that he allow drink parties in downing street which broke pandemic rules. that could beat his colleagues to force him out. a month-long lockdown lifted after coronavirus outbreak. business can resume. there will be capacity limits and cap at 10 people. a company fielding interest from two potential buyers for kohl's. it is unclear how much to private equity firm is willing to pay. another bidder backed offered $9 billion to kohl's. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts

jonathan: i am pretty sure it is an insult, although i know tom loves professors. ghter] my dad always told me if you can't do, you can't teach. lisa seems very upset by that, so i to get back. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: an hour away from the opening bell. this equity market is not looking good again. nasdaq 100 futures down .8%. on the s&p we are -.5%. the first time in over 20 years the nasdaq was up 1% intraday and finished down over 1% on back-to-back days. that has been the story. into the bond market, yields are lower again. down three basis points. next week, the federal reserve decision. tom: let's get smart. we need to get smart with someone with a claim in academics but also apprise you do not know about, apprise at harvard university. they find the people doing well. bonnie wongtrakool is one of those people. we are thrilled she can join us in the world of portfolio management at the western asset management. thank you so much for joining us. i am loving your essay. you talk about our predetermined path. as madame lagarde mentioned, our dat

if you talk below that line, i think we have real challenges. tomsk, your observation of a new phrase, the new defensive's, the big texan their massive balance sheet. we saw that yesterday with the microsoft all in transaction. tell us the power of the cash these behemoths have. david: we have never seen anything like this. we have never had companies that had cash forwards of $100 billion or more. microsoft has about $150 billion of cash, so they are using for this transaction maybe half of that. google has enormous amounts of cash. so does facebook. apple has an enormous mentor cash. we have never seen anything like that in corporate america. companies are under pressure to do something with it. give it back to the shareholders or make acquisitions. i think you will see much more of this cash used because regulators and members of congress are saying what you need that cash for? maybe you are charging too much and maybe you are too strong? tom: is a silicon valley conceit? the conceit of the generation behind you? david: there a lot of people who

so i wonder what the trading headcount looks like moving forward. tom williams parachutes in with bloomberg intelligence. wonderful work across all of banking. i was stunned by the slide, i believe it was page 14 of j.p. morgan come on technology investment forward. does goldman sachs have the same technology oomph we see from fortress dimon? alison: i would say they have both done well in terms of investing in technology. goldman sachs, their revenue growth has just been outstanding this year, and a lot of that is due to harvesting some of their gains in their asset management business on the proprietary side of things. the equities, the equity investment income, if you will. that has given them tremendous operating of rich. for this year, we expect that. lisa: how worried about you -- how worried are you about this miss in trading revenue are you? alison: it is a miss, but it is -- certainly we are not seeing some of the more dramatic declines we saw at jefferies, where there was obviously a lot more volatility. it is a major business for them, but wh

let small, no paddle, hello, i shall i, tom and i need really good to have a few of you with us. today's and quality ponder tre, audience, stand by for that. ash, welcome to the screen. please introduce yourself to apple. i will audience. hi, i'm a stocker, i'm contributing editor of our media and i'm a right here in nice that he, tom, it's been a while since he had on the stream. welcome back. we might audience, hey, you are what you day. yeah. hi, my name is tom hall. i'm director to correspond, luke, keeping usa tv channel here in the u. k. nice to have an hello. maybe even want to add 0. i need to know exactly who need me is. if you haven't me was about to tell you welcome. i am leave burger out there is presenter and correspondent braced in our european folk. our center here in land. i guess. let's start with david davis. he's a conservative and p a former minister. this is what he said on wednesday, june question time have a listen. have a look in like many on these benches us when we among us defending the prime minister against often angry constituents. i reminded them of

tom: i was speechless. i immediately went to my temperature take on history where if any president ever said something like that given the visibility and the immediacy and the number of people listening, i cannot think of a single moment in our history where a president has spoken like that. jonathan: we will head down to washington in 15 minutes. there is a bounce on the s&p advancing 0.5%. up about euro .8% on the nasdaq. -- up about 0.8% on the nasdaq. crude is just off of the highs of yesterday. the highs keep getting higher. $86.72 on crude. lisa: a lot of people pointing to the potential for a big increase. i was really struck by the eurozone inflation figures that came in as expected. energy is the main driver of that inflation you are seeing in the united states as well, major component. 8:30 a.m. we get u.s. initial jobless claims. i am looking at the continuous claims which have reached a level not seen even pre-pandemic. number of people receiving benefits from the government. how much does is ed

tom: there is a good shot. lisa: i appreciate that. tom: she documents our every step. jonathan: lisa, you would be ok with this, just letting everyone know what you tell us in the brakes, wouldn't you? lisa: would you be ok with that? [laughter] jonathan: tk, sorry for you, tom your s&p is down 1.8%. the nasdaq is down 2.5 percent. yields aren't doing much on tens, about 1.7654%. crude unchanged, $83.18. tom: i did not know who giselle was. i learned something with damian today. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the kremlin warns that the u.s. decision to put 8500 troops on alert for deployment in eastern europe exacerbates tensions. the biden administration says if the troops are sent overseas, they would help nato forces in the region. more than 100,000 russian troops have been deployed near the border with ukraine. moscow denies it is planning an invasion. more problems for british prime and is a boris johnson over allegations of those wall breaking -- those lawbreaking parties during the pandemic. police are now investigating the claims

i will ask him about credit suisse. jon: is that where you want to go? tom: i just don't get it. it has been a struggle for 20 years. ing, jonathan ferro. 9:15 eastern on tv and radio. the federal reserve bank of cleveland chair. lisa: i'm interested in that interview. [laughter] jon: i bet you are. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. the u.s. senators are set to vote to impose tough new sanctions on the nord stream 2 pipeline. there is broad congressional opposition to the gas pipeline which stretches from russia to germany. some democrats are concerned the sanctions would complicate ongoing talks between the u.s. and russia. those discussions are aimed at easing tensions over russia's troop buildup on the ukrainian border. president joe biden travels to atlanta for passage of voting rights legislation today. senate republicans are bowing to block the measure and some of the president's allies are complaining he has not done enough to advance it. the bill would prevent states from curbing access to voting. in hong kong, authorities are doubling down on a controversial covid polic

tom: i think so. wilkins with a brief from washington, and joining us in the last hour, maria tadeo in brussels as well. the distance of key have -- of key have -- of kiev to chechnya, i don't know, but to me, it is another time and place. what is the memory that mr. boudin has other than crimea, where he was successful? cash mr. putin has other than crimea, where he was successful -- mr. putin has other than crimea, where he was successful? maria: if he is thinking i did in crimea, i can do it and ukraine, since crimea, there is this national sentiment and ukraine that this is a country that they want to protect and they want to really push away from the russians sphere of influence. the reporting we have done behind the scenes also speaking to ukrainian officials, to me it is crystal clear that ukraine will put up a fight, and the country is really prepping for war. ukraine tried five times in its history to break away from russia. they were able to do it after the berlin wall. sometimes i do wonder

i think he got ahead of this in a pretty decent way. tomak, i was thinking that while you were talking to lisa and not to me. there's no question larry fink absolutely nailed that. to be honest, i need labor basis, bb he is the executive -- on a labor basis, maybe he is the executive of the year. jonathan:jonathan: everyone else simply chasing their tails. lisa: how much was that jp morgan/jamie dimon's reason for coming out and saying this wage increases unlike anything i have seen in my career, like you did this week? jonathan: that is what we need to talk about. who is scared of a wage spiral? i would say economists and ceos. me personally, not afraid. i think they are great. [laughter] yields 1.73%. futures down 0.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> there's going to be a push pull between the fear of the fed and the fed moving off ultra accommodation. >> it is pretty clear the plan is to go in march at this point. >> they want to get to the balance sheet sooner than later. markets are a bit underpriced for an increase in the terminal rate. >>

i back to 2004. it has been a while. tom: i must admit it is so unusual for you to say that. how to comprehend it. my gut reaction is can the island nation withstand that. we do not know. jonathan: joining us that thursday, i believe, danny blanchflower. tom: he is fired up. jonathan: he joined two years after that. he is fired up. on the fed as well, he does not see a reason to hike. tom: is probably just confirmed growth slowed down. jonathan: he is looking at the confidence numbers. on friday consumer confidence sentiment not pretty. lisa: unless there is a sea change to the economy the argument is inflation is a constraining effect. people will reduce their purchases unless they're getting huge wage booms. jonathan: nobody jumped in my ear to tell us danny was not joining us thursday so danny is joining us thursday. he says the fed should do nothing. lori heine preparingl for this fed to do something. from your city, this is bloomberg. ritika: several developments in the crisis in ukraine. the un security council will debate the issue today. the pentagon says the moscow h

tom: black with a little bit of wordle. i thing this really could go. just says #wordle on a cap? lisa: are you making this up? is it real? tom: you want to know what is real, the letter f is in the correct position. surveillance wordle. jonathan: do i have to come in tomorrow? futures up 0.1%. cpi 35 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. >> it is important that the fed has pivoted and changed direction and the market is handling that quite well. >> this repricing still has a lot of room to go. >> we do think omicron is going to

running into tom brady for the first time. >> even for me, and when i came in, tom was i believe in hisd already won two super bowls already and was about to win another one. and so he was already a legend even though he was young. as i came back to the patriots in my last year, year 16, and to see the way he interacted with college players, whether they were first round picks. whether they were second or third or fourth round picks, he has a way of making everyone feel comfortable. didn't matter if you were a guy that came in the first round. didn't matter if you were a free agent coming in and you wanted to say hello to him. will you sign this for my dad because he's a fan as well. you never saw him turn teammates away. that's one of the things that sets him apart because there comes to time for every player where you start to feel like you're older than the game and you start to feel a disconnect between yourself and younger players and what he mastered was the ability to make everybody feel like they were on the same playing field as him even though quite obviously when ever he make

tom: should we move on? jonathan: i suggest you should. the codirector of ucl where football reigns supreme. julie norman, you are truly an expert at the calculus of troops with russia. you have done that in the middle east with syria and others. when people give you troop estimates for russia, do you believe them? >> for now what we do know is that there is a lot of troops amassed on the border, at least 100,000. the estimates have been consistent for weeks or months and echo estimates from earlier this year. we are pretty reliant on those. what we are seeing is a pretty good reference point for preparing for all kinds of scenarios. i think that is why we see the movements we do in terms of heavy diplomacy can continuing between france, germany, russia, and ukraine and the u.s., but also deterrents building up. tom: 4000 troops here, 4000 troops there. the russian mathematics is 100,000. how do you respond when you see the troop differentials? >> the 100,000, from what i've seen, has been accurate. if anything it has been above that. when

jonathan: i am pleased to see you are still employed, tom. i had my doubts, you were gone so long. m: it was a month. jonathan: you're the one guy that is on covid and you tell me you are perfecting your grown a -- your negroni. futures up 17, let's call it 18. we are higher by 0.4%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika. at&t and verizon say they have agreed to a two-week delay of 5g deployment sought by u.s. authorities. the carriers had vowed to go ahead with launching their new services this week, and defiance of requests from officials who say the 5g signals might interfere with aircraft electronics, posing a safety risk. natural gas surged for a second day in europe. benchmark european gas jump as much as 10%, extending monday's rally. supply is set to remain constrained after dropping to the lowest since february. the uae is said to be at risk of getting on a list of countries subject to more oversight for not doing enough to combat on a laundering and terrorist financing. newburgh has lengthy financial action task force is leaning towards adding t

if i -- tom: ok. >> i would expect disciplinary action. tom: u.k.' editor for bloomberg on the latest round of party gate. sterling relatively unmoved on the back of this. coming up, china's growth slows down and it's central bank cuts rates as the country takes more hits from coronavirus. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. we are 51 minutes into the trading day. stocks on the up. the focus, repricing, what is happening in treasuries. treasuries are closed because it is martin luther king day. if you work in london, here is a way to get a pay boost. quit your job and get a new one. financial services workers in london secured an average 19% pay raise. joining us is tom. it did not feel significant apart from the fact that we are in the middle of the pandemic. >> i think it is more a sign of how hot the job market is as well as the salary uplift that you see. there is also a huge number of available jobs. messages come if you are in london and in finance, it is a good job market. tom: the demand for talent. how are things changin

brady and wanting to be the next tom brady. i't know if any will succeed what he's done and the career he's laid out, but just that mentally, kind of like that mentality that kobe had is something similar with tom brady and i expect now that he's retired, we'll get to see a lot more of his personal life because he started to share it the last couple of years that he's been in the nfl, but i think he'll probably be a little more sharing. he's writing a book soon. not sure if it's out yet. you know, i think he wants to help not just other athletes, but other people in understanding that mindset and how you can use that not just as a professional athlete, but in your every day life and in your career. whatever occupation you hold, whatever job it is that you do, brady has a template to be successful at it because he wasn't known as like i said, the fastest guy. didn't get drafted in the first round. he was a sixth round pick. a lot of those guys don't make it. the average life of an nfl player career wise is only three years and bra

i might enroll. would you be proud of that? tom were in row 42 of professor cohen's class, you would be obnoxious. i can see it, professor, what about the twos-tens spread? jonathan: i think the 42nd row is too far forward for me. lisa abramowicz and tom fara -- and tom keene. yields on tens at 1.7 341. for our audience worldwide, pp a coming in line. a lift in the equity market. this bond market and this pricing, a big debate here. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> they are clear about the prospects of progress in these stocks. they expressed concern about the russian military buildup in and around ukraine and called on russia to immediately escalate the situation. at the respect of sovereignty and integrity of its neighbors. tom: yun stoltenberg, the nato secretary-general looking at the many fronts of russia. it used to be simple math, there was one front, then two, now there are three or four fronts. follow us on a radio and television, a wonderful time to speak to robert hormats. he is tiedemann advisors. his experience f

tom: it is tough to read on a month-to-month basis. i would dovetail that immediately into the dispersion of calls on what rates will do. the goldman sachs overnight was extraordinary on this conundrum going back to 2005. this is a job stay where we have to fold in rate and fed analysis. jonathan: let's get to it. your equity market with a lift on s&p 500, advancing 2/10 of 1%. on the nasdaq -- greater losses going into friday. up 2/10. goldman looking for 2% year-end this year. now 172.31 on the week. up 20 basis points on the week. 12 months ago, the first week of 2021, what move did we have? one just like this one. about 20 basis points. lisa: a lot of people are looking at this and saying if you strip away what we saw in 2020, this looks like a taper tantrum in terms of the scope of the move. how much does this have legs? we keep asking that because as you are saying, when does the fed come in and try to stop the turmoil and back away from their hawkish positions? 2.5 hours we get into the payrolls report. the unemployment rate proje

>> he's a huge michigan fan so, i mean, tom brady is all that is in our household. impressive thing about him is his work ethic. i watched the tom v. tom documentary on -- it was a facebook dock you series on him. he'd always been in the nfl for, like, 20 years at the time, and he was still trying to perfect his throwing motion, just practice after practice during the off season. he would watch hours and hours of game footage, and he even said that sometimes he loses track are of time, like six hours in he's still watching game footage. and also the way he takes care of his body is insane with his diet. he doesn't eat any of the things that bring life joy. dairy, coffee, sugar, gluten, alcohol. he doesn't eat night shade vegetables, tomatoes, potatoes, mushrooms. so hopefully if he does retire, he's a great dad, maybe they can have a pizza party, eat all the naughty things that he normally doesn't eat when he's playing. >> yeah, it's just getting worse because you're so right. he made avenue avocado toast a thing without the toast. [laughter] emily, if if i could ju

i don't think that there's any a last can i to tom ask i just asking this because i did promise i would is that they could be part of the conversation as well. so i to was wondering, why are they media leakers bringing this story after almost a year. quick thoughts, tongue quick thought. at nixie, quick in a sentence. tom, you go fast. i think they fundamentally didn't have their hands on it until now. we know that a number of people have left downing street people who used to work it down on the streets of left over the last 12 months. and potentially the source is a bit more loosely and out in the back of months ago. and i think okay, there were 100 people invited to that down the street party that more people than i'm going to invite to my 3rd year this year. and secondly, one of the parties was held at leave injury for james black, who was director of communications at downing street. what was his next job? it was deck, the editor of the time, one of the biggest newspapers in the country. i was mike bringing this may the point was i knew the media didn't though. yeah. is this frankl

i caught up with michael feroli yesterday. he said hawkish operations does not mean tight financial conditions. that is key. tom: i need an entry point. jonathan: is this it, record highs? maybe this is the one after three years of double-digit gains. maybe you should take a look. yields up four basis points on tends to 1.66%. . this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika:ritika: with the first word news, i ritika gupta. shares were up on apple in u.s. trades. on monday, apple shares reached the $3 trillion mark intraday and closed at a record level. analysts touted the stock as a safe haven i been market volatility, and the defending from -- and benefiting from virtual reality. an announcement could come as early as this week. biden is giving progressive senators like elizabeth warren a win. hong kong will require people to have at least one covid-19 vaccine shot to enter restaurants and public leisure facilities starting in late february. the government is pushing back its plans until -- elizabeth holmes found guilty for her role in the collapse of the start of sarah knows. -- start of theranos. she is expected to appeal her

tom: let's dovetail that into our terrific news flow. i it's understood the president is having a challenging moment much of this -- much of it a centrist politician saying he is paying homage to the liberals and the progressives. we have the fed appointment in raskin who is well-known known and to wonderful academic professors both completely live just. and lisa cook from your michigan state. tell us about michigan state economics this morning. >> lisa cook is poised to be the first woman to serve on the fed board. the big question will be what happens with this nomination process. we have heard concerns from pat toomey over her nomination. she has concerns about climate change policy. there is some concern there. it's really going to come down to joe mansion and kristin cinema whether these appointments will go through. tom: there is a new social instrument. professor jefferson addresses that. >> you have jefferson on policy and there is a lot of impact into race on policy. raskin has focused on climate so this is a way for the biden adm

tom: i 100% agree.d by the fed parlor game and yes, we will be here for important fed coverage through the end of january. what's interesting is everything you just said wrapped against the societal reality that washington is dealing with, which is a huge perception that america is unemployed, we are talking about fully employed america and the politicians are focused on a large unemployed america. can we ask the fed to fix that? absolutely not. jonathan: neel kashkari wants it to and that essay is really interesting. "the cost of ending up in the high inflation regime are likely larger than the cost of ending up in the low-inflation regime." his base case is the latter but the risk is the former and he wants to do something about it. a member when we used to talk about an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. it is turned around. we are using that line to justify hanging interest rates, that's the risk. lisa: and one of the issues that a lot of people aren't fully understanding is how quickly i

tom hanks. iw about you, but for me, covid got serious when tom hanks and rita wilson got it. i was like, "oh, no, it got the gumps! we're in trouble!" [ laughter ] but things are getting better. according to the white house, 70% of u.s. adults are now fully vaccinated. and 80% are at least partially vaccinated. [ cheers and applause ] the other 20% are awaiting the results of the clinical trials being conducted by kyrie irving of the brooklyn nets. [ laughter ] i don't get it. pressure should kick in.eer - a wave of popular opinion. like, remember a few years ago when everyone was doing the harlem shake? and at first you thought it was dumb, but then once 80% of your friends on social media were doing it, you thought, “well i guess i should do the harlem shake?” [ laughter ] and you shook, and it was -- this is kinda like that, except in this case if you dance, you won't die on a ventilator. so why not? [ laughter ] there is a new covid variant making the rounds, called delta plus. delta plus spr

tom: very fluid to say at least. it's important to make note of the performance on bloomberg surveillance. i thought his audition went uncommonly well. jonathan: have you decided to see you would like? which one do you want. >> i'm somewhere in between tom and yourself when it comes to age so i don't know how you do it in those stools. it took me hours to recover from that. it is pretty tough out there. jonathan: i'm pleased you are comfortable. do you want to talk about emerging markets? [laughter] >> for me this is good to be a year at the beginning of the year we have to turn in -- that will turn into two halfs. we will see the fiscal deficits and gdp widen. we will see improvement what comes down to growth. that's across the whole of emerging markets. i don't see a demand picking up enough to really get this moving in the right direction. >> we've been talking about how men eat covid policies can continue on that track. china is at the forefront. what is your sense of how much of zero covid policy they actually hav

tom: i thought the side conversation was the tots offense. than: you are like -- you are right to bring that up. tom: we all get credit. we are talking the dialogue, and we are doing it with the future skepticism of waiting for the data. what you saw with neil dutta, he goes to the bloomberg estimate function, and if you had real gdp and inflation, this year 8.5%. china life. it ramps down 12 months from now. jonathan:'s bond market yields associated with that. i spoke to heavyweights in fixed income. they keep going back to the balance sheet. every single question you asked about markets, they keep returning to the balance sheet. we have no idea how big this will be and how big it will be and the effect it will have. if it is $1.5 trillion in 18 months together with rate hikes -- this is the point neil dutta is making. the more you pricing for the fed there is always the risk they will do last. this has been true over last 10 years. the more you price in the less likely it is they will actually do it. we have to work out is whether this is di

i think that is what you're going to happen with any and i make disease, people go different paths. tomes cdc in atlanta or the buffalo bills, how do they deal with this single new word, and i make? dr. adalja: what that means is they have to match it with another word, sustainable. what public health measures they have in place cannot be from a pep -- from a perpetual state of emergency. they have to recognize covid-19 as part of a constellation, respiratory viruses, including influenza, that will plague us for the existence of our species. what you focuses -- focus on is trying to prevent cases that will inevitably occur from turning severe by making sure you have tests like monoclonal antibody's, vaccines, antivirals, and help hospitals when they are in a tough spot. many hospitals are in tough spots because of omicron but after the omicron surge ends, and it looks like it is peaking in parts of the country, we will be in a different place. i think at that time, with an -- with enough of the monoclonal antibodies, we should handle this much like other respiratory viruses. lisa: this