well the i.m.f. is not necessarily famous for being super timely it was therefore for example when the i.m.f. is talking about emerging markets like turkey like brazil like for instance to having a tough time that's not necessarily new is we've known that and seen that for quite some time and then also the forecast is not super dramatic at least for this year we are still talking about matching globally. the biggest grows in about seven years and then a slight change in the forecast for next year and for this year the forecast for the u.s. actually still remains unchanged so there was not a big reaction here on wall street even if we traded is likely lower on this news all right yes it do you think the president will take heed of what the i.m.f. had to say. well probably not directly from what the i.m.f. has to say because u.s. president donald trump is not a big fan of institutions like the i.m.f. but let's say that because of the trade policies because of higher tariffs more and more u.s. companies

the i.m.f. has also downgraded german growth europe's so-called economic engine focused doesn't look good. and has the details for us from frank first how bad are the numbers. the international monetary fund says that germany's economy. sorry about that or try later moving on the trade war between the united states and china story would like to talk about every day but now it's tenting germany exports agricultural machinery especially hard hit by the knock on effects of tax hikes. here in london and germany's northwest farmers are partial to america's john deere tractors. although some are produced locally the biggest ones are important customers here are more interested in performance than trade politics. john deere heavy yes but they're built strong they have the pulling power of the of the tractors just can't imagine. german farm equipment wholesale a chrono imports john deere machines and exports german machines to the u.s. u.s. sales have no slumped to twenty percent a poor season low milk

well the i.m.f. is not necessarily famous for being super timely was their forecasts for example when the i.m.f. is talking about emerging markets like turkey like brazil like for instance to having a tough time that's not necessarily new is we've seen that for quite some time and then also the forecast is not super dramatic at least for this year we are still talking about matching globally. the biggest grows in about seven years and then a slight change in the forecast for next year and for this year the forecast for the u.s. actually still remains unchanged so there was not a big reaction here on wall street even if we traded slightly lower on this news all right yes do you think the president will take heed of what the i.m.f. had to say well probably not directly from what the i.m.f. has to say because the u.s. president donald trump is not a big fan of institutions like the i.m.f. but let's say that because of the trade policies because of higher tariffs more and more u.s. companies will suffer

well this has been the second warning by the i.m.f. in only twenty four hours so it added of course to the has a very bad mood on the financial markets right now because well all the optimistic points that the i.m.f. chief legard had to mention there in bali did not sound very convincing i mean those proposals to threat strengthen the w t o the world trade organization or the t.p. p. the trans pacific partnership one important player is not taking part in this and this is the united states and what i've got and her team of the i.m.f. have been very hesitant to directly criticize the united states and its administration in the face of course a lot of those dangerous undercurrents that the i.m.f. has talked about there in bali are addressing american policies you know the trade policies the tax cuts that sort of influence a worldwide financial flows stuff like this one of the one of those undercurrents of course is the trades conflict between the u.s. and china and that seems to be as good as in further now the americans are suspecting t

from germany to turkey the country is among those for which the i.m.f. has slashed its growth forecast turkey's debt tops fifty three percent of g.d.p. and inflation is rising faster than at any time and president wretch of type ever wants fifteen year rule but there are tanking and inflation soaring missed out on has now told over one hundred companies to justify it recent price increases they meet with a view to causing fines on what he calls. for some more insight let's bring in gareth jenkins he's a turkey analyst at the institute for security and development and he joins me from istanbul welcome gareth turkey's finance minister who is also president out of one son in law is to announce a program for a what he calls for flight fight against inflation on tuesday what do you expect the program will entail. well we don't really know i mean it's only a couple of weeks since he announced the medium term program several years and that was supposed to set the template really economic policy for the turkish government and now we've had this almost panic reac

if you think it all sounds pretty bleak take heart from the i.m.f. chief christine lagarde. what it is tempting to be a bit depressed about this perspective i am actually hopeful because there is a clear up or tight to improve and expand trade think of the flurry of welcome discussions and proposals to strengthen the w.t. you all think of all the new trade deals such as d.p.p. eleven. the regional african trade agreement and the progress made on the us mexico canada deal. progress in some areas yes but all this against a backdrop of a trade war between the united states and china. the world bank had a sober message about how the tit for tat tat response between the world's top two economies could top the contagion effect. protectionist trade policies can cause a chain reaction as more countries adopt similar measures. the global recovery is built on investment and there's a real danger that businesses will decide to wait for more clarity before engaging in new projects ten years after the last global financial crisis there's a whole new set of risks to the world economy. whe

it's quite a picture of the i.m.f. spending for some more analysis let's bring in our financial correspondent in frankfurt conrad the i.m.f. is talking about an array of threats here how will markets respond. well christophe check out the german share index stocks today it's on the way down again quite a clear response equity markets here in germany also the euro is going weaker plunging to around about one dollar fourteen given of course that the impact of the economy of the eurozone also germany this lower growth estimate by the i.m.f. was so strong it's personally in terms of germany the i.m.f. calculates that gross domestic product in germany this year will increase by one point nine percent that's from the previous four cost of two point five percent reduction of six tenths of a percent that's quite significant you can run this meeting of the international monetary fund of the world bank will last another five days if you asked people on the trading floor what would need for this meeting to become successful. well

for germany was even stronger than the one for global growth the i.m.f. now calculates that gross domestic product in the country will grow by one point nine percent this year that compares to the previous forecast which was two point five percent a reduction of six tenths of a percent that's quite significant and despite this caution companies are not shying away from going public tell us about the most recent i.p.o. in frankfurt. christophe you know i'm standing in front of the building of the frankfurt stock exchange and i'm also standing in front of the decoration which was nicely installed here today for this i.p.o. the name of the company is west wing just like you know west wing in donald trump's white house but i can tell you this is not the reason why the company had to reduce its price expectations in the course of this i.p.o. the share price is also plunging on the first trading day it's really tough times right now for i.p.o.'s there's so much talk about the potential end of an economic cycle threatening the markets companies that really have

for many decades since the foundation of the i.m.f. after world war two but now their positions seem to drift apart more and more take for example the u.s. tax cuts they are among those dangerous undercurrents that the i.m.f. is talking about money is being sucked into the united states from many countries all over the world and this causes enormous problems for those countries and their financial systems the international monetary fund sees a whole array of threats to the global economy contribution reporting thank you. the top story we're following for you out this hour man has been arrested in germany and charged with the rape and murder of journalist victoria marin over the suspect is expected to be extradited to bulgaria it remains unclear if the t.v. presenter staff was linked to overcook. because the other news coming to you live from thanks for watching. the. technology. market. next. brazilian society is deeply divided. rich versus poor. right versus now. he did election campaign has split the country even further and the figh

christine lagarde signaled that the i.m.f. will likely to downgrade their global growth growth all costs for next year two or three weeks ago but nonetheless at a time of escalating trade tensions high valuations for u.s. stocks particularly the tech sector and the fact that u.s. bond yields are on the rise and likely to push quite a bit higher investors of looks at the gap between u.s. bond yields and the dividend yield the trailing dividend yield on the s. and p. five hundred the nasdaq and basically concluded not on reasonably that that gap is too wide it's time for a little bit of profit taking head at the start of the earning season in the us which starts at the end of this week and i think there's a concern that an awful lot of these companies could well be guiding lower their guidance for the next twelve months and now is as good a time as any to take some money off the table and obviously that has affected the u.s. markets quite markedly now michael you mentioned the international monetary fund that has come out with a

the i.m.f. is also downgraded german growth europe's so-called economic engine the focus doesn't look good. has the details from frankfurt conrad how bad are the numbers. the i.m.f. says that germany's economy this year will grow at a rate of one point nine percent that's down from the previous forecasts which had been two point five percent decline of six tenths of a cent quite significant and this was not the only sign today that showed everyone how much of an impact the trade spat between china and the us has already had on the german economy german exports were. down from july to august they're still on a relatively high level but there's a dent and this of course has to do with the problems of the car industry so one of the big wigs at this meeting going to do about it what would financial people like to see. was some sort of approach a step by the united states towards china step by china towards the united states of course you know this meeting. the i.m.f. meeting has one hundred eighty n

secretary of state mike pump ale to oppose i.m.f. credit for pakistan over that relationship the i.m.f. chief economist has warned pakistan against taking on excessive debt which cannot be repaid in dealings with china. and time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return in the wake of news about apple and separately amazon cloud having tracking chips placed in their hardware and they deny it we speak with cyber security expert the c.e.o. of various software our friend todd shipley and china is building a new social credit system for its citizens what is that and why are they undertaking the massive effort conservative t.v. and radio commentator steve malzberg are to sail off and join us for that discussion as we go to break here are those nasty numbers that the closing bell back in a flash. descending into tribalism and cultural trench warfare highly contentious break out in a supreme court nomination process has ignited passions and anger on both sides of the aisle interesting lee and ironically the point where ther

well this has been the second warning by the i.m.f. in only twenty four hours so it added of course to the has a very bad mood on the financial markets right now because well all the optimistic points that the i.m.f. chief legard had to mention there in bali did not sound very convincing i mean those proposals to threat strengthen the w t o the world trade organization or the t p p the transpacific partnership one important player is not taking part in this and this is the united states and what i've got and her team of the i.m.f. have been very hesitant to directly criticize the united states and its administration in the face of course a lot of those dangerous undercurrents that the i.m.f. has talked about there in bali are addressing american policies you know the trade policies the tax cuts that sort of influence a worldwide financial flows stuff like this one of the one of those undercurrents of course is the trades conflict between the u.s. and china and that seems to be as good in further now the americans are suspecting can see

again with the i.m.f. i want to say that again turkey is not going to open the i.m.f. again this is closed forever but. this is better clear now and the reason we have to think about why i am affair has been brought back into the scenery i want to explain to my difference. contrary. not. to bring. back to this country we are not going to unload them do this and they have their they have a really pleasant history when it comes to this kind of relationship and that and other. institutions. you know knew the previous. chairman and the. prime minister was so loyal to them and i'll just. let you see here. you see you know me. and yes you see the flag that he's holding in his hand. had a look at the flag that is shaken is not turkish flag. this. is. american flag this is in. their past is full of these stories. whatever they were yesterday what can they be today. this is what they're doing to this country. why does he carry these in his hand this is this is a tank you declaration of thank you he's carrying this flag and at the moment in our stuff out of turkey. american amer

and central bankers meet in indonesia the i.m.f. chief christine legarde says it could have damaging consequences the response to the disaster in the way c. will also be discussed at that annual meeting scott hyla joins us live now from bali the scope before we get into the nitty gritty of the i.m.f. and christine lagarde the people of palu what the future for them must still be pretty bleak. it is at this stage peter now it's very it's you know this marks now that at sunset it marks the end of the transition of the rescue search operation it now goes into the rebuilding operation it is as you heard from in terms of the good that is the second general the united nations there and if we've been speaking with here they see that it's very important that that transition is made obviously it's a sad moment because that means they have decided there will be no one else found alive so they're transitioning now from searching to rebuilding but what is important a lot of people here say and that is that that rebuilding process starts local e

at the i.m.f. and world banks annual meeting policymakers underscored that a trade war between america and china was going to make everyone poorer this year it took place in indonesia where people are reeling after last month's devastating earthquake protesters demanded their government focus on helping victims instead of hosting a summit for the business elite their message didn't go entirely unheard on a visit to one of the most badly affected areas i.m.f. chief christine legarde promised to supply funds so that today. too. soon after it was back to the usual order of business with the release of the i.m.f. slated to report on the outlook for global growth the speck between the world's top two economies drawing consequences the international monetary fund has cut its global growth forecast for this year and the next. notwithstanding the present the man momentum in the us we have downgraded its twenty nine hundred growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports fro

mexico canada deal a lot of the criticism that the i.m.f. came out with is targeting the united states or the policies of donald trump you know of course the trade policies but also the warning of those capital outflows from emerging markets is an indirect criticism of the united states policy you know to boost already strong economy with tax cuts this policy of course causes money to be sucked out of emerging economies in other places in the world into the united states which causes imbalances for the financial system and speaking of white house policy the trade spat between the united states and china as ask elating further with the u.s. representatives doubling down on accusing china of currency manipulation. well yes the accusation accusations have been out there for a while now stephen when the treasury secretary says that he and his. administration are looking closely at this tomorrow steve doocy as expected the new ship is expected to meet his chinese colleagues at this i.m.f. meeting in bali where the nation says he would address you

the american withdrawal from the i.m.f. three how do you see. it because i agree with what ted and john have said i mean. it doesn't take a barry long time it does take time to update an agreement and this in the start new start treaty is very important but they should be working on it now right but if they're not working on it now it looks like they're not going to pursue it again another very important element of the arms control our infrastructure is decaying in front of our eyes go ahead alice in new york. i totally disagree ok this is really they stand being blocking. the treaty of the program fishnet nuclear weapon one hundred twenty two people just nation just about. it's going through a ratification process that you. think. and this is like talking about on control and twenty first century it's so twentieth century neverwhere it wound up with oh darling you know said in his famous products you know i want to where there are nuclear disarmament it might not happen in my lifetime and then hillary misquoted him and said it might not happen

well it could be just an excuse to say ok i'm denouncing i.m.f. seems russia is not a round table like if you want to have a russian round the table is not just the best way to say i'm withdrawing from the treaty on the contrary you have to us plain you have to open a dialogue with china you have to explain it would be mutually advantages to include china i would be in principle very much in fear of having one day china or round a table but knowing china is not the best way to say to say take or leave it in that case china will continue to say i live it and do you believe that or could an international organization by haps the u.n. for example play a role here an organized or perhaps mediate between these countries and find a solution. well i think since what president triumphed set at the opening of the u.n. general assembly i don't think you will take him to so high you can see duration and eventually initiative from u.n. on such as very important matter what i believe it should be. a now where now as raising exercise with the cooperation of an

well i would say that christine lagarde is in very good company here at the i.m.f. annual meeting she has basically just voice what everyone here has been saying yesterday who was the french the e.u. commissioner who we see used to be francis of finance minister so he did so he also knows what he's talking about and he basically said that the trade war bad donald trump has started is stupid so even though donald trump is nonsense here he's basically taking center stage at these meetings here and there's a lot of consternation about what he might do next time for a new mention of one of the big topics of this meeting is the trade dispute between the united states and china what ways of solving the problem are being discussed. well as head of the. all who is also here yesterday said he says i don't see any light at the end of the tunnel right now apparently there is no direct bilateral talking between the u.s. and china so the am i am happy that the world bank here that. they might be able to create a forum where these two superpowers if you will. can talk again and p

and china are on the agenda of the i.m.f. and world bank annual meetings and bali i.m.f. chief christina god is warning against a trade war even though trade corporation has driven an unprecedented period of growth and prosperity over the last seventy plus years. today it faces a backlash partly because too many people have been left out which to meet. current trade sanctions could reduce global g.d.p. by almost one percent over the next two years. clearly we need to deescalate these disputes but just as clearly we need to reform the global trade system to make it even better fairer stronger. mutually beneficial to all nations and all people and fit for the future. and that means fixing the system together not tearing it apart. well scott had joins us now from the asco global fund and it's clear they have a lot to talk about what will they be focusing on. as we heard there from the i.m.f. head a lot of the focus has been on those trade tensions mainly because yes you have the two top economists in the world and gazin these trade tensions and they're not meeting you know w

well the i.m.f. and the world bank are not the only organizations worried about the world economy the world trade organization has also issued a dire warning if the u.s. and china continue to escalate their trade conflict they predict that a full blown trade war between the two economic superpowers could cause global trade volumes by more than seventeen percent leading to an almost two percent contraction and world order to vittie with a conscience for literally everyone he told members also complained there were little signs the two countries were making progress at the negotiating table. the european union wants its car industries fleets to emit thirty five percent less carbon dioxide by twenty thirty that's what e.u. environment ministers meeting in luxembourg have agreed on. showed a rift between east and western europe germany backed by eastern states fiercely resisted the forty percent cost was the european parliament voted for last week luxembourg the netherlands nordic states none of which ha

well the i.m.f. has also downgraded german growth europe's so-called economic engine we asked our financial correspondent kannan had bruising in frankfurt how bad the numbers for radio. nice economy. exports. from. this of course. my colleague ben visited him in frankfurt paris thousands have been demonstrating french president a man who had backed calls of planned social reforms the protests were led by labor unions and pleading the c. g.t. the protests which also took place across france are aimed at mccombs economic reforms and budget cuts to sectors like health education and pensions back home was elected on a reform ticket but has increasingly become isolated last week as interior minister became the third minister to resign in six weeks a government reshuffle is expected this coming wednesday. here in germany a court has ruled in favor of banning up to two hundred thousand diesel vehicles in parts of potentially green models which are just three or four years old the aim is to improve aqua teen

and in advance of this week's i.m.f. world bank g twenty meeting which we mentioned earlier the i.m.f. latest world economic outlook has revised global growth projections downward the i.m.f. now says they expect overall global activity to increase by three point seven percent down from a previous forecast of three point nine percent the report warns against what they designate as protectionist policies telling the u.k. guardian quote the world will be more poorer and more dangerous if current trends continue taking a closer look at the i.m.f. revised growth forecast for agenda dated emerging economies also downward to four point seven percent after previous predictions were as high as five point one percent one reaction to the report and its revised growth forecasts appeared to include the fall in london's footsie one hundred two a six month low. and we now turn to india's financial sector and take a look at banking and related non-bank lending system which. some so used to touring on the edge of disaster for more years

there no absolutely it's a lot about trade tensions as we heard there from the head of the i.m.f. because it's such a wide cast shadows that is cast by this trade tension because when you have the two top economies in the world engaged in trade tensions that has knock on effect and to talk about this further let's bring in curtis chin he is a former u.s. ambassador to the asian development bank so obviously these trade tensions have a knock on effect yes in the region because of the two nations involved but also even beyond that because of just how pervasive and how deep these economies go around the world right absolutely you know if you think about some of the big stories the big trends we're hearing about here at the world back i.m.f. beatings clearly the big one is still growing the perhaps lonely growth rate for the global economy and one of the factors is very much the growing tensions between the united states are trying to as you noted the two largest economies in the world you know trade drives growth but at the same time despite the worries a lot of skepticism of what's

soon after it was back to the usual order of business with the release of the i.m.f. salacious reports on the act look for global growth the spot between the world's top two economies drawing consequences not withstanding the present demand momentum in the us we have downgraded its twenty nineteen growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from china and china's retaliation china's expected twenty nine thousand growth is also marked down another factor worrying economists is the rise in global debt in the last decade average national borrowings have risen from around a third of economic output to more than half. that's an especially big concern for emerging economies many of which have seen money leave as a result of a rise in interest rates. with economic titans at loggerheads and developing countries under pressure the threats to global growth appear very real. for some more analysis let's cross over to frankfurt and our markets man conrad conrad we'll talk about the world economy here in a moment first enlighten us what's up wi

context of a conversation with the press about the i.m.f. with russia. about china and that's my that's what the last week of the drug might actually be trying to whether he'll get it done or not is another matter but his goal might be a new international i n f that brings china and religion it's possible but going it seems kind of counter-intuitive to me because then that would crimp this unilateralism ok i know that would be a change maybe for someone like bolton does to suggest that when he is a unilateralist to the core why would he want to be the father of an internet old in this coming enough to just sell it that way but i later coming is one thing i mean it's a bureaucratic infighter but i mean about reality ideally the international treaties you want to constrain your other is there is about yourself and i think the legitimate weakness of the i.m.f. is drawn up in to seven so this was a book bipolar distribution of power for that reason it's constrained moscow and washington so i think it's fair to say that you know you have all this you have pak

surely some reflection of the fact that lula the little experience with the i.m.f. bit of a failure unlike chavez who changed it structurally. brazilians will vote for the left and they will let me try to summarize the situation how we reach this serious situation basically is because their workers' party for the things they made right and the things they made wrong for example in order to rule the country the workers' party made many alliances with very conservative parties this is wrong movie definitely one reason this kind of choice for being part of the game of the or league or key was one of the big mistakes of. this but. also that things they may drive for example the social programs that help a lot the poor people in brazil in this kind of things made the middle class to upper class very upset you know because they. were in use or to see black people in the universities the poor people have a more possibilities to chew by. offer only for the middle class this kind of things and this create a very middle class in brazil the upper class they got very hungry of

in effect means you can jump in anytime i want i want to talk about the continued fallout from the i.m.f. treaty that the trump administration is withdrawing from i think it's a significant story the foreign policy blog seems to agree with us for a change or maybe they're going to we're going with them also i want to talk about these nato exercises which i don't think are getting enough western coverage in the media be it's a significant event and with the withdrawal from the i.n.f. treaty and these exercises i think we can draw some conclusions here ok first i want to go to martin jay he's in beirut he is a freelance broadcast journalist martin bring us up to speed what's going on with the can show be a fair and how turkey is behind the scenes pulling a lot of strings and a lot more than that go ahead mark. well this is not what's being reported out there and not nearly enough by west of you have a huge deal on the table between turkey and saudi arabia we have to remember that these are frenemies are not very close allies in the region and saudi arabia hates turkey for being friends and

are under influence of world bank i.m.f. this kind of. organizations and while liberal mainstream media around the world doesn't like balsa narrow bloomberg reporting markets are reacting really well to the prospect of also narrow winning clear preference wall street journal brazilian swamp drain they call him j.p. morgan chase election is his to lose what about that difference between the financial press and the mainstream international press a good question i think maybe ford international press is is clear the situation here in brazil is very serious because probably things we had the end of the military dictatorship we didn't have the strong possibility of having the first real fascist president you know ruling brazil i think the brazilian media it's not calling him by his. real name. fascist because they are afraid of or because they are supporting him you know unfortunately mostly of the mainstream media and brazil are cowards. our decide to ation they think all we need to call this guy for his real name he's a fascist and no doubt

say that they're going to have to compensate somehow the i.m.f. might honorable all this argument came out however what happened two years later when the united states actually did withdraw from it they said well these are the new realities either you can accept it or you can begin to risk our ally in solidarity and and this is everyone started to fall in line and i think that was it was not just accidental this is there a deliberate strategy and we find out that we found out through the wiki leaks cosimo we have you know very interesting territory for these radars sometimes for getting proper footprint of russia and the u.s. ambassador to norway he pretty much was very open saying well we're going to put a lot of pressure on the norwegians make them change their mind because we opposed it and essentially break this down to being all about aligned solidarity once this because that issue they will turn and then a few months later be reported but yes we put some pressure on the government journalists everyone on that one eighty and so we need a lot