that when we come back. >>> and we're back here on "gps" with zanny minton beddoes and ian bremer. ian, was is the biggest story you're looking at in 2024? maybe another way of putting it is what is your biggest worry? s. >> clearly, the united states and this electoral season and all of us are worried that the u.s. democracy is nowhere near as robust as the economy that you were talking about in the opening, fareed. but i'll tell you, irrespective of who wins, we need to recognize that all of 2024 very likely to be so much more divided. once trump gets the nomination, which is overwhelmingly likely in the next couple of months. the republican party is going to line up behind him. and the media. and the money. and as a consequence of that, his policy pronouncems will have a lot more importance. so this entire year, before we get to november, before we get to inauguration in january and before we start talking about contested illegitimate elections and the politicization around that, you're going to have a year that is much more polarized with implications that is under-appreciated f

. >> joining us to discuss is ian bremer, president of the eurasia group. this has been telegraphed by u.s. officials for several days. the scale is pretty significant. what do you make of what happened last night? >> when i put it in the biggest context, which is the iranians are now -- have several of their proxies in the region that are engaged in escalating war against the united states and israel. that's the big concern. oil prices up 4%, but they're still under 80 bucks. the concern for the united states is what happens if we end up in direct conflict with iran. then we're talking about 150 or 200 and a global recession. then biden is going to lose. that's what's at stake, and we are on a path of military escalation against iranian proxies, and they are providing the weapons. they are very happy with the fact that these attacks are actually occurring. that's the broader context. yeah, as long as the houthis continue to engage in strikes against civilian tanker traffic, and they have been doing it for weeks and weeks now, the americans and allies are g

ian bremer, the founder of our asia group said to me the biggest up side in the past months has got to bel stabilization of u.s./china's relations. this is one more sign of a thaw in relations. military-to-military talks have resumed. there are constructive trips to china. the indoe pacific work has begun. they seemed to have stopped their dangerous maneuvers. over the prior two years since the fall of 2021 there had been nearly 300 such incidents against u.s. air craft and those of u.s. allies and partners and the taiwan elections, while going against china's hopes, were handled maturely by both sides. this is all to the good. the mistrust, miscommunication and lack of contact that characterized the relationship for the first two years of the biden administration was dangerous. this rivalry could easily spiral into an unconstrained arms race in everything from artificial intelligence to space weapons, splinter the global economy and descend into the first great power war since 1945. both sides have adjusted their attitudes. the larger shift has come from beijing. xi jinping came to po

ian bremer, the founder of our eurasia group, said to me, the biggest upside surprise of recent months has got to be the stabilization of u.s./china relations. jake slven's meeting with china's top diplomat for private talks this week is one more sign of a thaw in relations that in 2021 had both sides yelling at each other in anchorage. military-to-military talks have resumed. ian janet yellen and gina raimondo have had constructive trips to china. since the biden/xi summit, chinese military planes seem to have stopped their dangerous maneuvers. over the prior two years there have been nearly 300 such incidents against u.s. aircraft and partners. and the taiwan elections while going against china's hopes were handled maturely by both sides. this is all to the good. the mistrust, miscommunication, and lack of contact that characterized the relationship for the first two years of the biden administration was dangerous. this rivalry could easily spiral into an unconstrained arms race in everything from artificial intelligence to space weapons, splinter the global economy, and descend into