. >> rose: we continue with ian bremmer of eurasia group and his listing of the top risks to peace and economic progress in 2012. >> fear is actually the single biggest risk in 2012. it is not that the big things are blowing up, the euro isn't going to blow up, the united states is actually doing better than people think, china is not going to have a hard landing yet all of the headline risk around political volatility is keeping money on the side lines, it is keeping people investing in gold, and it is stopping the global economy from developing the way it probably should be. >> rose: these are things you call red her rings. >> that's right. >> we continue with jeremy rifkin his book is the third dustrial revolution. >> what happened in the last two years which is really interesting is this internet communication technology is just now merging with the new energy regime, distributed energy, and when they come together we create and infrastructure for a completely new economic paradigm. >> rose: and finally this evening a bit of culture with a great italian novelist umberto eco. >> it

ian bremmer president of arab group, global risk research firm. daniel franklin, editor of the economist magazine's world in 2012 special edition. welcome. so, ian, you do this kind of thing for a living. let's first start with something simple like iran. is the united states or israel going to attack iran in 2012? >> absolutely not. i can't see the united states doing it. keep in mind, it's still obama no matter what happens with the elections in 2012 at least for the purposes of that year. and the israelis are highly incented to convince everyone that an attack it could come if they aren't satisfied. if it's going to come it will come from the u.s. the two sides aren't coming together. sanctions will clearly escalate. there's a lot of internal pressure within iran. when you have a potential assassination against the saudi ambassador to washington, the british embassy being occupied, that's telling you there's a lot of internal instability at the top of the iranian regime. there's risk takers and folks that don't like us but much more pragmatic. t