ian bremmer joins us by phone. there are so many places to start. we begin with director james comey's disclosure. was this the responsible thing for him to do? flex i doubt he had much of a choice. first of all, the fact that he had -- he is aware of e-mails that would have contradicted testimony he gave in the investigation to congress requires him to make that disclosure. not only would it be delegitimizing for him to hold ifto it beyond the election they had found out about it but frankly with that kind of information it would have leaked within the fbi very soon anyway. i expect his hand was forced. there is still big questions about what exactly is in these e-mails that have come from anthony weiner, and how they connect to hillary, and in what way they contradict his testimony what we have seen so far is they don't believe this is going to get concluded before the election. that creates opportunities for donald trump to cause trouble around it. mandatewhat possible they have to continue to look into this and inform congress as well? it seems

ian bremmer, time magazine columnist and founder of the eurasia group consulting firm.remmer will tell us some of donald trump's foreign policy notions aren't as outrageous as hillary clinton says, however... >> the thing that really worries me about trump is god forbid trump elected next 9/11. god forbid. because where a president really matters is response to crisis. that's where everyone is looking to the u.s. president and congress is like, okay, whatever it takes. >> ian breming coming up shortly. and later, in our evidence based politics segment, a scholar who sees monday's debate as serious show business. first, as the candidates prepare to fight tooth and nail on monday, are they neck in neck? yes, time for the horse race. it has been a rough month for hillary clinton. donald trump has gained significant ground in the polls. according to nate silver's forecasting models at 538, trump is within striking distance of defeating clinton in november. since mid-august trump has climbed steadily from about a 20% chance of winning the election to more than a 45% chance t

here are the views of ian bremmer.is election is a complete subversion of democracy and an embarrassment -- >> -- says an american! >> best to hear from me first. i would say that hillary won the first half, then trump gathered momentum. it did not matter. he is way too far behind. barring something caddick is like something happen to hillary, the question is how big of a loss will it be? most importantly, what does donald trump do after a loss? the only piece of news that matters after this debate is the fact that he came out and said that he was not prepared to say that he would concede if he loses. ivanka told me privately and others publicly that 100%, if he loses, he is done. donald trump has confounded a lot of people in terms of what he is willing to say and do which helped get him this far, but has also destroyed his campaign with republican leadership over the past few months. i think a lot of this has to do with how he feels on the day. if he does not concede and he can whip up a enough frenzy, it will damage

ian bremmer will explain the risks of this strategy. >> it's a lot to think about. he's calling it after the g-zero. you've got the imf meetings tomorrow. >> this will help get us in the mood for global conversations. >> let's start with western crude at $50 a barrel. plus this discovery, more oil off the coast of alaska. jackie d. has more for us at the nymex. >> the high was only 3 cents off. the technicals really driving this trade right now. of course, we do have some support from the opec deal and the number. usually the trend will break through, even if it's only briefly. it didn't happen today, but traders still think it's possible. how long can we stay at this $50 level? that is the million-dollar question. many people say we're going to be range-bound for the rest of the year with this being the high end of the range. remember, we could take another drastic dip down into the 30s. we did do it last year going down to nearly 26. that's when demand dropped off. some people are concerned that opec deal just might not materialize at the end of november, so that'

ian bremmer of the eurasia group, the elections coming up.y for this imf meeting? callum: absolutely. what is bad news for the uk in terms of brexit could be a disaster for europe in terms of the elections next year. tom: do you see a cogent european response to prime minister may? callum: no, we see two responses, one from the european commission and one from the european governments. the government's seen flexible in wanting to deal with the uk. we have hardline orthodoxy coming out of berlin. tom: really appreciate it with the eurasia group. we will continue with mr. henderson and some other esteemed guest later this morning. my conversation with a professor from berkeley -- maurice obstfeld. he is now imf director of economic research, their chief economist. we speak to maurice obstfeld this morning. later this week, a conversation with the former holder of the job, john lipsky. let me look at the data right now, getting you to the top of the hour. vix improving. sterling is stunning. one point 2758, euro-sterling. 0.88 on euro sterling.

ian bremmer, the head of the eurasia group to get more involved sort of united nations style in theseve heard imf opine about trade, that's probably as far as they're willing to go when it comes to intervening on the u.s. election, but i will ask jim kim about this as well he's been following issues and the ripple effects that's going to have on the election in germany next year. so for sure they need to start weighing in order to keep these institutions relevant and at stake is the global world order which the imf and world bank, carl, are very much a part of. >> jim, sarah brings up a good point. a lot of emerging economies, even developing economies have to start making plans. what do we do -- what do companies do if this antiglobalization does get worse? >> well, look, i think that one of the things that has to happen is that you get a country like germany, they have to start spending in order to make it so the people who are coming to that country who don't have the skills and really are hurt by globalization get jobs. i can't believe it hasn't happened yet. but it will happen in