ian bremmer to be with us shortly.court with geoffrey yu of ubs. where can i make money in foreign exchange this year? i do not care about economics, i do not care about ian bremmer's deal politics and all that, i just need to make money. where will i see that move in foreign exchange? geoffrey: zero and on your ecb proxies. euro stock people talk about 10 to by year end, we took the -- we could be talking about nine. switzerland calling for a rate hike at the end of this year. if that happens, the dynamics of how the world views the swiss bank will change. tom: does mr. jordan of the snb have the courage to do what he did a few years ago and provide a stronger swiss franc? geoffrey: i think he will. if eurozone growth holds up, if inflation continues to move in the direction it is going. if the chinese go to switzerland and buy and consume, he will be fine for this is frank to strengthen, especially against the dollar. francine: is is the end of negative bonds this year? i think we're heading that way. if you look at

eighteen tonight obvious gus the biggest risk to the world as we know it with the euro asia group's ian bremmer. is by far the most dangerous geopolitical risk environment that we have experienced since we started the company some twenty years. we begin the day with scorched earth and schizophrenia i'm talking about the relationship between u.s. president dollar trump and his former closest adviser steve benen just a year ago the two were considered the disruptive do go taking over washington with a promise to rid the nation of its political establishment and now the two men are on the outs and are suddenly politics most prominent brogan bromance in a new controversial book by journalist michael wolff bannon is quoted using the words trust treasonous and unpatriotic implying drum's inner circle colluded with russia he also reportedly writes that bannon considered evolving khatron quote dumb as a brick or trump's reaction expected and very brutal the official line now bannan was never influential in the oval office or important and when he was fired as advisor last year he not only lost his job

. >>> joining us to discuss this and more, ian bremmer, cbs news, senior global affairs contributor. ian, always good to see you. first iran and what you make of this? >> look, demonstrations in a authoritarian regime doesn't allow them. always a big deal. clearly there will be a crackdown. successful one if it continues. the reason it really matters its because this gives the hard-liners in iran an opportunity to make the president and the more reformist elements vulnerable and gives president trump an opportunity to beat up on the treatment of the iranian citizens. he has been hard line, anti-iran since day one in the presidency. makes u.s. iranian confrontation more likely. >> hard line, an type north korea as well. what do you make of the latest in north korea? >> well, on the one hand the fact that the north koreans and south koreans are saying they would look to talk. north koreans are talking of sending athletes to the olympics, clearly a positive thing. happening in the context of kim jong-un saying i keep a nuclear button here on my desk, that i won't hesitate to use if i nee

if you're just joining us now, jack lew and ian bremmer. let me set it up in terms of boston where it's going to be 13 below zero in brockton on saturday. ian bremmer, you grew up tough in chelsea and when you are living fat and large in weston or wellesley hills you know where chelsea is. your mother do it today in this environment in chelsea? could you have gotten to tulane in this milieu today? >> i didn't grow up tough. i grew up getting my ass kicked. today my mother would have voted for trump or she would have maybe voted for bernie sanders. no way sheolutely would have voted for a mainstream democratic republican. my brother voted for trump. nobody else from my neighborhood got out of the chelsea projects that is now talking on no way se would have bloomberg and i think it's precisely that environment that are saying this is working. tom: what is your party need to do to gain dominance in the chelsea's of wisconsin or minnesota where you lost the election? >> that is a good question. what you are talking about used to be the base of

all right, joining us now to discuss and more is ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group, and a cbs news senior global affairs contributor. always good to see you. first of all, let's talk about iran and what you make of this. >> well, look, demonstrations in an authoritarian regime doesn't always allow them. but the reason it really matters is because this gives the hard-liners in iran an opportunity to make the president and the more reformist elements much more vulnerable. it also gives president trump an opportunity to beat up on the treatment of the iranian citizens. he's been hard-liner, anti-iran since day one in the presidency, makes u.s.-iranian cob 41itation more likely. >> glor: hard-liner anti-north korea as well. what do you make of the latest in the north korea? >> on the one hand, the fact that the north koreans and south koreans say they'd like to talk, they're talking about sending athletes to the olympics, that's clearly a positive thing. but it is happening in the context of kim jong-un saying i keep a nuclear button right here on my desk they won't hesitate to us

up: ian bremmer, you grew tough in chelsea. when you are living fat and where chelseaw is.uld your mother do it today in this environment? could you have gotten to tulane in this milieu today? >> let's be clear, i did not grow up tough. i grew up getting my ass kicked. would haveother voted for trump or maybe for bernie sanders. there is no way she would have voted for a mainstream democrat. there ain't nobody else from my neighborhood that got out of the chelsea projects that is now talking on bloomberg, and i think it is precisely that environment, environments like it all over the country that are saying this is not working. tom: what does your party need to do to get dominance in chelsea or wisconsin or minnesota where you lost the election? >> that is a good question and what you're talking about used to be the base of the democratic party, and we need to find a way to communicate with people talking about the things that i am talking about. ian is right. you cannot win by saying trade is the whole problem with that is not the hope problem p you have to talk to people

>> ian bremmer nailed it. there is a carrot and stick.nk the trump people deserve credit, as did obama people. sanctions on the north korea is part of what brought them to the table. we don't understand north korea. clearly there is a reason they picked up the phone. the second piece of this is what we head into now. that is where is the carrot here? presumably you want a more stable relationship with the north koreans. isolated north korea means in stability, which is not good for america. the only way to bring stability is to have a conversation with them. so are we in that conversation or out? if we're out, do we choose to allow the chinese, russians, south koreans to proceed without us? this is what trump people did on climate change. if you don't participate, the world will move ahead without you. i think that's what the tweets suggest. >> let's talk about the tweets for a second. the president tweeted about him having a bigger button. i guess that is a euphemism for big hands. do you think this is a problem diplomatically, these kin

ian manufacturing bremmer says s ripe for a big unexpected crisis.highlights from our exclusive interview with the eurasia group president next. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from london, i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. target is starting off the new year with a bit of a bullish bang. let's listen. >> the timing on this is difficult. we think it's 2018. seeing the combination and the value of it is easy. this is not just a revenue grab. this would be one piece of the demographic grab. the demographic is critical to how amazon bought their business. vonnie: abigail doolittle joins us live to weigh in. amazing to get this kind of call on the first trading day in january. abigail: relative to what gene munster was just telling tom, the mom demographic. it's coming out of the blue but it's not new. around this time last year there was lots of speculation that amazon might take out target. that time target shares were about 30% less. it's almost hard to see why amazon would now be interested in targe

this is a very different story. >> ian bremmer, good to see you. we appreciate it. >>> shops in california are hanging signs declaring prohibition is over. the state is now the world's largest legal marijuana marketplace. now new retail remembers looking for ways to cash in. california pot is expected to become a $7 billion, billion with a b dollar market by 2020 according to a cannabis market research group. jacob soboroff who gets all of the good assignments is following up a of this out of west hollywood, california. >>> day one of recreational sales here in west hollywood, los angeles. the line goes all the way down, across the other side of santa monica boulevard along the street here into this dispensary. they say it is a one of the biggest medcal dispensaries in all of california. they are gearing up today to turn to recreational marijuana. all you have got to do when you come in here, katy is give your driver's license to these folks right here and you are able to walk in and buy whatever products you want. the big thing people are thinking

going to win an election, surprise, surprise, so not a big deal. >> so a lot of noise. >> when ian bremmert's a great list, a compelling list. >> thank you. >> thank you for your time, ian. >>> some of the biggest names in hollywood are turning outrage about sexual harassment into action. jodi kantor, whose reporting helped inspire the movement, is right here in studio 57. she looks at the new effort to support working women from film studios to still on the scene of an early morning fire at cardboard >>> sportscaster leslie visser started breaking barriers in a male-dominated field in the Õ70s. ahead, she'll be here talking about a book about overcoming obstacles and earning respect in the sports world. you're watching "cbs this morning." sports world. you're watching "cbs this morning." ♪ ♪ i feel it all, i feel it all ♪ feel the power of theraflu expressmax. new power... ...to fight back theraflu's powerful new formula to defeat 7 cold and flu symptoms... fast. so you can play on. theraflu expressmax. new power. (hard exhalation) ney? can we do this tomorrow? (grunts of effort) can we d

joining me for more on this is ian pwrepler -- bremmer. >> the star of davos was the french presidentad a standing ovation, massively charismatic. but teresa may had a much worse speech than trump did. trump was in the middle. he's a big spectacle. everyone wanted to see it because that's what you'd tell everyone later on. i was there too see him speak. they wanted to see the picture. not like they love him. they don't. this is ground zero for globalism. trump is not that. but they're very happy about what's happening with the u.s. economy and the global economy. they're happy with trump on tax and, in fact, the american ceo's could not get out of each other's way at dinner with trump to say, we're so happy that you've done this great tax deal, you've done this great tax deal. >> dana: other countries gathered there and the president saying, look, our country is a great place to invest. is that message getting through? do you think that will start to happen more? >> yes, i do. not just because of trump. certainly taking the taxes down, the regulatory roll back does make the american e

let's take a listen to what he , the what ian bremmer founder of the eurasia group had to say over iranrday. >> it is very clear that trump wants to burnish his anti-iran. he has done that with a stronger relationship with the saudi's. he has done it by going after the iranians, going after what they have done with support for hezbollah. and most recently, given the demonstrations in iran, coming out and saying, we oppose the oppression. tracy: john, i'm curious if you see any potential that that heightened political unrest in iran and heightened political tensions across the gcc and middle east will begin feeding into the oil price? john: i think that in many ways, this has been priced in over the last few days. we should see today and tomorrow how oil trades. i do not see any significant upside. the rest of the opec member countries can easily cover, if there is an iranian shortage, due to the geopolitical concern. maybe a little bit of an upside. nothing substantial. next, the word according to the fed. the latest minutes on the continuation of gradual tightening. more on what that m

>> ian bremmer, thank you. >> sure. >> senator orrin hatch said every good fighter knows when to hang up the gloves. he will not run for an eighth term. as the the senior member of the majority party, president pro tell of the senate, third in line of presidential succession. his retirement could open the door for a senate run by mitt romney. >>> now to other stories we are following in the evening news feed. in peru, a bus collided with a truck along a dangerous curve then tumbled down a cliff on to a ricky beach. at least 36 people were killed. many americans return to work today after the holidays. at least 4.5 million got a pay raise. 18 states, california to new york. washington to florida raised their minimum wage. january 1. wall street beginning 2018 where 2017 ended in record territory. the tech heavy nasdaq was up 1.5%. and past 7,000 for the first time ever. >>> there is much more cbs news ahead. >> an online gaming phenomenon swatting is bringing terror and death to the real world. ♪ >> a super moon fills the new year's sky. ♪ >> dalton throws, it is complete. touchdown! r

tom: let's move to the commonwealth of massachusetts and talk to ian bremmer about the text comments. phrase. what does it mean for us? saide president microsoft in increasingly looks like you will see fragmentation. as we move from the information revolution to data revolution, it is more top down. the way people are engaging and the filters they see to engage in commerce or surveillance, those are increasingly either coming from fragmented companies competing with each other or through the chinese government. those are two completely different models. that is not the u.s. led globalization that we have been thinking about the last 40 years. argument thatn the facebook's and google's and microsoft's are easily as strategically important for the united states, for our economy and national security, in the next 10 years, as lockheed and raytheon were during the cold war. i don't think the u.s. government is prepared to align with these companies that way. i don't think the understand how to do it. valleythink silicon libertarianism is -- i think that will be incredibly important space

>> let's move to the commonwealth of massachusetts or maybe the english common law and talk to ian bremmerh comments. what a great phrase. what is a tech commons? >> you have the president of microsoft saying what will be global tech commons looks like you'll see fragmentation, you see that in the internet space and as we move from the information revolution to data revolution, it is much more top down. so the space that is being created, the way that people are engaging and the filters that they seek to engage in commerce, or if there is surveillance, those are increasingly either coming from a bunch of fragmenting companies that are competing with each other, very sophisticated in the u.s. or through the chinese government. those are two completely different models. that is not u.s. led globalization we have been thinking about. i think you can make an argument that the facebooks and googles and microsofts are easily as strategically important for the united states for the economy and the national security as --kheed and raytheon ever or ever were during the cold war. i don't think the u

we're also joined from new york by ian bremmer who's the president of the eurasia group, a politicallting firm, which published its annual report on the world's geopolitical challenges today. just take me through what the fault line is, what is the divide? is it secular and clerical, rich and poor, economic? what is the divide. i think what we're seeing in terms of what is unfolding on the streets is a very young, very radical, very disenfranchised segment of the population that feels frustrated with economic conditions it is under. you can see from the radical nature of the slogans, they have little stake in the system, so frustrated that they can't imagine reform, they just want their difficulties to end. some of them are very traditional, some of them are religious, some of them may believe in the system but find it very corrupt in many aspects. it's complicated, in a way! exactly. it isn't theocracy versus democracy like a philip pullman novel where it is the conservative clerics against the forces of progression? no, we have to remember that six months ago there was an election

this is done barton and ian bremmer. here is a top risk.t all the accolades and abilities, we live in an anti-science milieu. did wasce cerf legendary before he went to teach at stanford. that couldn't happen today. anti-fans,isk of an anti-technology america, aren't we? >> it is a worry, because on the one hand you are seeing this massive investment in technology, for example, and care,quare -- in health science, but the fact is we could be doing so much more on it. i think we should be celebrating science in a more sick again way than we are. we are benefiting from our and d was done for decades ago by the government and by business. i think that has been dropping. i do agree we need to increase it. to thing we need to get back on the resilience piece on cyber, and this is the -- not the ai, but what vince said about what the software. more of us are connected to things that people. were badlyeople affected about individuals having information, what i worry about is the ability now to be able to shut systems down. you think about logistic

ian bremmer, around the world with you. thank you very much. hawaii going back to the drawing board after a false missile alert turns to chaos. so how are other states handling emergency warning systems? plus kentucky becoming the first state to require many recipients of medicade to work in order to receive coverage. could this be a model for the rest of the country? i'll talk to the governor of the blue grass state next. >> the respect and dignity given to the person to be able to do for themselves is something that has been missing and needed for a very very long time. and that's exactly what we're now giving people. >> dana: big change in kentucky as it becomes the first state to require work in order for medicade coverage. it will require adulls 19-64 to work to keep their coverage. that includes getting a job, going to school, taking a job training course or community service. joining me now from louisville, kentucky, is governor blevins. what do you hope to change with this new found freedom that kentucky has? >> at several levels we wan

. -- we will hear from ian bremmer up next. markets asia." limited inflation of is coming out of thailand. not just a miss, but an unexpected drop in inflation, so we are looking at consumer price , a drop of .08%, marginal, but might give you a little bit of pause for thought there. for headlineng inflation somewhere close to it 2% toabout 1% -- close to about 1%. core inflation coming in a little bit in line with expectations. we look at the index by thailand, the set index set to close above the record last set in 1994. thew years after that, asian financial crisis, or what some would have preferred to colloquially back then. in other, chart, words, if things essentially stay the way they are, we are set for a record low, so not much disruption coming from that inflation story into thailand. speaking of inflation, oil might just be an extract of moving into 2018, hovering near 30-month highs, as well as this new chart into the new year. analysts say the credit all goes to opec and compelling signs the cartel is winning its t

. >> ian bremmer is president and founder of the eurasia group. great to have you in person, ian. >> good to be here. >> the president came out taking full credit, that's the way he operates, saying it's international pressure, it's a much broader thing. which is it? >> i'll give him partial credit here. stuff he's done well. he's gotten the chinese more onboard, tougher sanctions, including at the security council as well as cracking down individually because he linked it to american trade. he made it a high priority issue. that's worked. he's also forced the north koreans under pressure to consider that talks with others would be a good idea, right? so you give trump some credit for that, more than you would obama. but north korea testing all these icbms, ramping up on that, which is quite dangerous, doing it because they're concerned, they feel like they need a stronger deterrent before they go into negotiations. they have definitely picked that up because of trump. most importantly, south korea, our ally, going by themselves to talk to the chi

barriers and government support and protectionism for their own industries at home. ,carlet: that was ian bremmerormer treasury secretary jack lew, who explains why he thinks the tax overhaul will do more harm than good for the economy. lew: it is almost the opposite of what voters were calling for in an election a year ago. where were worried about, do they fit in an economy where technology and trade and globalization seem to be changing all of the rules they .rew up with what we need is training, education, infrastructure, we need to invest in the kind of workforce in the future that gives people the confidence. what we have seen is a tax cut that spends money we don't have to have very concentrated benefits for global corporations in the top 1%, and it is leaving us broke so we cannot deal with fundamental problem so we are farther behind in actually making progress. i fear the next shoe to drop will be the most vulnerable in our society. how do we pay for the deficit caused by the tax cut? he will see proposals to cut basic food support from poor people, to attack medicare and social securit

ian bremmer's top risk for 2018, it was china -- dr.conomic expert -- corporation, espresso bar when the trump entourage waltzes by. carl weinberg on china and president trump breaking china up happy valley. make davos, davos again. marine one incoming, i will introduce the president to bury -- barry at the piano bar./ , fireom keene and with me and fury, francine lacqua. i look at the book of michael wolff, "fire and fury" and the president is making bold reactions. this really tops them all? francine: first of all, when the news broke the president was ,oming at joining us in davos this took many by surprise, including his own team and i thought, this is a president who stands up to his convictions and he wants to speak to the people who criticized him the most and then i thought it could also be a great distraction because instead of talking about the book, we talk about the fact the president is coming to davos. you could say clever in both ways. tom: i would point also it's extraordinary the news flow in washington is he and an x n