thank you so much for being with us, ian shepherdson of patheon, greg daco of you by.onversations. this is bloomberg. ♪ recipes. recipes that are more than their ingredients. ♪ [smoke alarm] recipes written by hand and lost to time... can now be analyzed and restored using the power of dell ai. preserving memories and helping to write new ones. ♪ lisa: counting down to the opening down. david rubenstein in the office with an orioles tie which has heated debate around the table. here is the treating diary for the day ahead. fed speak including bargain, goolsby. markets are closed on wednesday for juneteenth. thursday, the bank of england decides. another round of jobless claims in the united states. s&p global pmi data. joining us around the table after we got retail sales is david rubenstein wearing his orioles tie. host bloomberg wealth. the interesting aspect of your interview this week, it is with someone who runs a $2.7 trillion wealth management firm, at a time when we have talked extensively this whole morning about the uncertainty around how to position portfoli

ian shepherdson tells me business surveys say a downshift is in train and you should be looking now tobecause it takes so long for it to take effect. there is a real danger if you blink, you'll miss the soft landing. shepherdson points out the fed back to 1971 has typically cut rates months and months and months before inflation even peaks, 22 months you can see there in 1971, 6 months in 2001. if the 2fed cuts in september, t will do so 31 months after peak inflation. there are many who say the fed or -- nobody should use the hicp because there is no housing in it and the ecb could be making a mistake by ignoring it and the other side of the coin, they say u.s. housing inflation has really lagged and the fed should ignore it. whether the fed is late in the ecb will depend on the outlook for u.s. and global inflation. i talked to bruce cashman at jpmorgan yesterday. he says personally, i think inflation will prove to be stickier so i think both central banks will be delivering less easing than the market has priced in. the market has a later start for the fed priced in. but see both ce

for more on that and today's fed decision, we want to bring in ian shepherdson.ist at pantheon. you expect things to be in lein at 3.6%. what do you expect? >> what we learned over the last couple of years is these numbers can show up surprises. so if a core reading shows up a 0.4 instead of 0.3, markets will be unhappy. the fed chairman powell will have to explain things. i have never ruled it out. there's a lot of stuff ahead of the number we just don't know. there's a sort of black box we have to guess at. it has miss behaved over the last couple of years and you have to be a bit careful. >> even if it's in line on an annualized basis, 3.3% is higher. they want to see 3%. how would that go toward cutting rates? >> it's about a couple of things, it's about direction and that it will remain on a downward track. it's bumpy. we can't expect it to get better every month. but as long as they believe the causes that caused inflation to go away, they'll eventually get through to the numbers that matter, and the fed have to be aware of the dangers. if they wait until i

know, pretty good and calls into question exactly how restrictive monetary policy might be >> ian shepherdsonhow there are some real pain points in the economy he mentioned small business in particular, and the idea that, you know, they have to pay 9% for loans at this point. that being really something that can clamp down on job growth because small businesses, which are a huge engine of hiring in this country, can't afford to expand when those are their costs. is it fair to say that there is a hugedifference between bigge companies that we talk to most of the time, between what main street is facing, main street businesses, and is that cause for concern or cause for the concern -- cause for the fed to potentially ease sooner? >> well, look, part of the challenge is there are sectors that are much more interested. so, housing has always been talked about as one of those certainly small enterprises as well can be. so, it is a source of some concern, but this is a very large economy. and so the fed has to figure out how to think about all of the factors that are driving this. so, a source of c