ian taylor makes this more probable than some old are considering.n probable, but it could happening -- could happen. maybe there is a sense that this strategy of flooding the market is not working, and prices will stay low where they are right now for too long for comfort. maybe they are up for a coordinated cuts. the issue is it would have to be policed, and that has always been a sticking point for the russians and saudi's if they were to get together. they areook at what producing. bloomberg follows this. you can see how low they are in the water. it is not a big that science. picture ofery good what is going on, which is they are only producing more and more oil. they will cut and would want it to be verifiable, the keyword in all of this. this pressure of the declining price of oil is differently all over the world. news out of nigeria that there is very difficulty of holding on to this in the era. ? this price doing of oil, this reality of oil, what is this doing to the russian economy? >> the first thing it has done is completely destroyed th

vitol ceo ian taylor. a cap on any price rally. is toosituation we have much of supply. the balance is due not look like they are tightening up yet. say that we can say for sure that the price has bottomed out. aan: if you had to put number, the brent price at the end of the year would be? $48. you can come back and kill me because i am sure it will be wrong. ryan: you don't see a sharp rebound in prices? >> we don't because there is so much stock now built up in the world. we believe it will take a lot of time to work off that stock. it will happen over time. no one will wake up and suddenly see there is no oil left. the world continues to have plenty of stock of oil. ryan: how long will it take to work through this stock? and get back to $100 oil? >> there is so much more supply. are all being more efficient. the u.k. consumption of oil is going down, not much but it is going down. efficiency in cars is going up as it is in airplanes. there is a possibility that you will not necessarily know back above $100 ever. ugly andam old and have been in the business far too lon

ian taylor thought that it might be more likely than many people think.e still thinks it is a slim possibility, but he seems to think, and i think a lot of people out there are starting to wonder if the saudi's are convinced that their strategy has been correct. maybe some people in saudi arabia are starting to think this idea of flooding the market with oil and eventually get a price rebound, that is taking longer than we thought. we can do it, but it will cost us tens of millions of dollars of our reserves. so we get that shift in saudi policy. we might get a shift in the way opec views things as well. anna: funny how that could happen. ryan chilcote joining us for that fascinating interview. up next, it is the law of diminishing returns. how the bank of japan's measures are you -- losing their effectiveness. we are live from tokyo next. ♪ the conference call. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. the only problem with conference calls: eventually they have to end. unless you have the

this is the point ian taylor was making as well.to have a natural buffer for the next five to 10 years. as soon as prices recover, the shale producers, no matter what opec does or doesn't do, are going to come back into the game. when does opec bring them back in? jon: ryan chilcote, thank you very much. the energy players clinging to their dividend. how long can they do that? let's turn over to rolls-royce. i'm reading benjamin katz's story. shares surging. investors shrugging off cutting the dividend in half. ben katz joins us now. if the energy players did this in the short-term, it would be bad, but it is a restructuring effort they are celebrating. you wonder if that is the message in the bottle for a whole load of sectors. >> good question. the ceo has made quite a pitch. he said to the company, we need cash for the next two years. roles has, unlike some of the energy sectors, roles is quite certain they will achieve quite large growth. we are seeing increases in airplanes and aircraft sales. rolls supplies the engines. that w

ian taylor spoke exclusively with brian shall coat. >> we are in a situation where we have too much supply. but balances do not look like they are tightening up yet. i wouldn't say that we can say for sure the price has bottomed out. >> if you had to put your money on a number, the brent price at the end of the year would be what? >> $48. back and killme me because i'm sure i would be wrong. [laughter] >> so you don't see a sharp rebound and prices. why not? don'tnow that -- we because there's so much stock built up in the world. i think we just believe it will take a lot of time to work off that stock and it will happen over time. so nobody is going to wake up and suddenly see there is no oil there. i think there will be plenty of stock of vital -- of oil. >> how long does it take to get back to $100 oil? is that a genuine question? genuine i think it is a question. there is so much my supply. we are being more efficient. oil consumption going down, not much, but it is going down. the efficiency of cars is going up tremendously, as it is in airplanes. i have to believe that there is a pos

. -- the ceo, ian taylor, spoke exclusively to ryan chilcote. >> we are still in a situation where wepply, the balances do not look like they are up yet. you are still seeing built in the u.s., so i would not say we could say for sure. >> if you had to picture money on a number -- .> which hopefully we don't >> the price would be what? >> 48. you can come back and kelly because i'm sure we would be >> you don't see a sharp rebound and prices. why not? >> we don't because there's so much stock built up in the world. we believe it's going to take a lot of time to work off that stock and that will happen over time. nobody is going to wake up and suddenly see there's no oil there. >> how long does it take to work through the stock. do you ever get back to $100 oil? >> i think they're so much more supply and we are being more efficient. u.k. consumption of oil is going down. efficiency in cars is going up tremendously. you have to believe there's a possibility that you will not necessarily go above 100 ever. >> the point is that this is a turnaround, a turnaround of the and given the real

ceo ian taylor tells bloomberg prices will stay low because of slower economic growth in china.ys the u.s. shale industry will act as a cap on any rally. tom: thank you so much. futures -21 right now. let's look at the euro. it is a proxy for a discussion with kit juckes about where we are heading. the consensus was that blue rectangle. weaker euro, we are going to go to parody -- it hasn't happened. there's been extended stability. francine, it's really been confounding. francine: it has been compounding. when you look at ben bernanke, five or six weeks ago, saying it is probably the end of the dollar rally, we've seen that not to be true. we talk about currency wars. let's get back to our guest host, kit juckes from societe generale. where does euro-dollar go from here? kit: right now, it goes higher. eventually, the winter ends. the spring comes back. we get back to phillips curves, falling unemployment, and stuff like that. it all feels terribly far away this morning. right now, in this low yield, risk-averse, money that wants to invest in german securities, right now, the e

stephanie: earlier bloombergtv spoke with ian taylor. this is a big crude distribute it.e is what he had to say about rice. a 40we were probably see to 60 time band. stephanie: this is what you are talking -- david: this is what you are talking about a moment ago. there, and ifing there were, would it make a difference given all the other sources of supply, such as the united states, that adam talked about? philip: russia and saudi arabia and venezuela can talk all they want. saudi arabia is the leader in this. it is the world's largest producer, other than perhaps the united states, and saudi arabia will keep producing unless they can get an agreement where other producers cut three barrels for every barrel they cut. suggests thes, saudis cut production. they cannot or prices will go up. saudi income will go down. the saudi arabians need to have cooperation from others. i keep saying oil is now the new corn. saudi arabia is a large producer, just as there are some very large producers in i/o and some small producers in iowa. but saudi arabia literally has no market power