times -- >> they did one, and then there's -- internet investors >> exactly, ibd. >> they were the most accurate. do you know anything about polling they were doing the others weren't? >> the most difficult part about polling this cycle is picking out who's turning out essentially. so that accounted for a lot of sway. what they were able to do is most accurately predict who's going to turn out in the polls, which is the hardest part about polling. it's really why you hire a pollster at the end of the day. everyone else thought that voter turnout was going to be off the chart. when we look through this election and crunch through the numbers, you're going to see that the democrat turnout was low, shockingly low. >> after all this talk about ground game, which also made me think trump was going to lose because there was all this talk that the democratic ground game to get their voters out was far superior. trump had not built any infrastructure for that. how can he win if it's close? on a ground game. she had 150, if not 200 people here in arizona being paid to work on a ground game. >> y

these laws triggered a boom in violent kidnappings of ibd juans while separating men and women during peak reproductive years. both of which accelerated the california indian population some indians were treated as disposable laborers. one los angeles lawyer recalled los angeles had it's slave mart and thousands of honest useful people were absolutely destroyed in this way. the population fell from 3,693 to 219. escape was one way that california indian people defied servitude but whites sometimes responded with legal force. for example, lieu i can young here that escaped servitude many times. she would tie up with cotton dress. others were less fortunate. after one california indian fled her, woquote, lord and master, whites massacred an entire village of some 15 california indians. 15 years later a rancher became so incensed that he quote slaughtered the whole family of six persons boy and all. despite such reports state and federal policy makers failed to intervene while almost all law enforcement officials turned a blind eye. congress made california indians vulnerable. in 1851 an

meanwhile, the latest poll from ibd, investor's business daily.rump's biggest lead, a two point gain there. but the national polls shows clinton up 44-5, and coming up at 10:00 eastern time we will have the brand new fox news polls, the gold standard in polling that's coming up 10:00 sharp. we'll have it for you. news that the fbi would clear hillary clinton in the e-mail scandal came out yesterday afternoon, 36 hours before the vote. tammy bruce is with us. now, it's had an economic impact, but politically did it have any impact on the vote whatsoever, the fbi news? >> i don't think so, obviously the markets don't like uncertainty. i think that's where they're moving there. what we're seeing with these polls is an example of not only ibd, but the l.a. times, he's gone up 4.8. and also is winning every age group, including millennials and his approach of winning hispanics is near george w. bush, 43.8. >> which poll is this? >> the l.a. times dornside as oshth as ibd with 2012 margin of victory. stuart: the l.a. times. >> unc dornside. stuart: and

the ibd poll which i think still has trump ahead. the other ones are really close. would say it is close enough that i wouldn't have to lose sleep over that. nicole: to help your polling practices out, there is a bully if donald trump as the swell of ground support that's going to show up in surprise is that the polls. >> i think he's the candidate who brought the whole new type of voter to his side, that those democratic. we don't know how many of those are. people didn't see that coming. a lot of people see parallel in donald trump and the kind of people who voted to get out of the european union. there may be some similarities. >> hopefully find out this evening. professor of political scientist stony brook, university. thank you for coming in. >> after campaign for the white house, it is now up to you the voters. polls in vermont open. polls in 10 other states in the northeast and midwest to open in a half-hour. we will have the very latest on the voting. control of congress right down to the wire. will republicans keep their majority or will democrats carry the

today's ibd poll shows trump up 20 points that is investor's business daily, and 22 points ahead of protestantmp surging numbers after clinton campaign e-mails were leaked last friday referring to the catholic church -- excuse me, two weeks ago, referring to the church attendees as severally backwards. ginni ginning joining me now pastor of the advisory chch, pastor at first baptist church in dallas, and pastor it is great to see you. >> thanks, lou. lou: these numbers are impressive. and my question is and perhaps millions of people want reassurance here from evangelicals, conservative catholics, these numbers look real nice. are people really going to get to the polls and support donald trump? >> i think they are. you know, just as republicans are coming home to trump, you have evangelicals and catholics, some of whom were on the fence are also coming home to trump. just today, you had "new york times" best-selling author and prominent evangelical joe rosenberg, a strong never-trumper saying he's voting for trump to keep hillary clinton out of office. and i think many evangelicals and cathol

ibd poll showed trump pence ahead. i think this is one to watch, far closer than ram any aomney obama. >> about the three lies you were told about this election. i urge everyone to read it. >> one lie is -- one thing we were told that's true, it is being held tomorrow. >> that's true. >> coming up, we will take you inside our new studio, america's election headquarters for tonight night. we are waiting, remarks from donald trump at a rally in pennsylvania as we were talking about, important state. stay tuned for that and more ahead on "the five." what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic. you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it rig

. >> the only one is ibd. >> right. exactly. that is good for her. and news for her, if you look at the politics, averages, and they have their map with no toss ups, it is 272 to 266 for her. that is not a comfortable spot to be in. you can't call this anything other thn a very close election. >> if you think about more than 42 million people voted, the highest early vote total that we have seen to date, more people will vote early but that tells us a lot. we'll get a good sense some states just push the button. all votes come in. >> we're going to get an early evening because so many of the important states are on the east coast. they're going to close early. i think it's amazing after 18 months of a guy running the most-unprecedented, unconventional campaign, ever, is you know playing in all of the blue states at the end. a conventional republican will be worried about states he feels like they haven't put away yet. but i think one of the things that is probably key to tomorrow night is a bumper sticker out of virginia that said vote trump. then, n

. >> and ibd poll had trump up by two points. >> she's up one in that one. >> i -- >> you've got to look at where early vote is in florida. we're up about 100,000 votes from where we were four years ago. in north carolina, up about 120,000 votes from north carolina. and we're up in a big way in ohio. we're up as compared to 2012 in a big way in iowa. we're tied in michigan. if not, slightly ahead or slightly behind but clearly, both our data and the clinton data in michigan is saying the same thing, it's very, very close. the same is true in pennsylvania, and the same is true in new hampshire, and in the second judicial district of maine. you go to colorado, megyn, and ballots that have been counted show at the democrat-republican registration we have an 1800 point lead. >> what about nevada? >> sure. >> one the guys out there that tracks the polls says trump is finished in nevada and hispanic trump out has been historic. >> we love john. but you know, he says the same thing every two years about republicans in nevada. i do like john. it's something we hear all the time. it's going to co

cbs news poll also gives clinton the i believe 45% to trump's 41, but an ibd/tipp poll puts trump ahead. it's important to know that the results are within the margin of error. joining us now patrick murray, director of the university polling institute. what are people to make of these numbers when you get, most of the polls say hillary clinton has a solid lead, maybe 3, 4, 5 points and then you get the poll that puts trump ahead? >> i think la poll that has trump up by 5 points. fox poll, cbs, abc, these are all polls that have very good track records and we are looking at anywhere from a 3 or 4, 4 to 6 margin in all the polls. they seem to have been on the range and presidential elections here in the u.s., that's a pretty solid number and it suggests that all the other poll that is we are seeing in florida, north carolina, she's probably doing better there clinton probably doing better there. john: i might as well put it up there on the screen for our viewers. fox news national poll puts hillary clinton at 48%, donald trump at 44%. now, this was a poll that basically gave people those

. >> looking at ibd poll which had a good record the last time out it is likewise down to one point.itt romney as i recall scott got 9% of republicans. certainly trump would need to get something like that because even though he may turn some democrats, i assume your thought is that he would -- that he would need to turn an awful lot of democrats if he doesn't get a full complement of republicans? >> he does need a lot of democrats. we do see a few democrats in the rust belt coming towards trump. we are losing college educated conservative leaners in other places. trump needs to get over 90% of republicans. do better among independents than romney. and then he needs some depression among some traditionally strong democratic constituencies. there is a little bit of evidence that african-americans aren't voting at the same rate as they did in 2012. there is other evidence that hispanics are voting at a higher rate. so, the clinton campaign tonight is probably hoping that higher hispanic turnout may offset what they are losing among african-americans in places like north carolina. >> so

. >> i think the ibd poll came out and had trump up by two points. put that aside. >> she is up one in that one. >> you got to look at where the early vote is in florida. we're up about 100,000 votes from where we were four years in in north carolina we are up about 120,000 votes from four years ago. we won north carolina. we are up in a big way in ohio. we are up as compared to 2012 in a big way in iowa. we are tied in michigan if not slightly ahead or slightly behind but clearly both our data and the clinton data in michigan is saying the same thing that it is very, very close. the same is true in pennsylvania and the same is true in new hampshire in the second congressional district of maine. you go out to colorado and ballots that have been counted show as to republican democrat registration that we have an 1,800 vote lead in colorado which is a shocker to a lot of people. >> >> what about nevada? one of the guys who tracks the polls said trump is finished in he is he is dead in the early vote and hispanic turnout has been hi >> >> we love john b

somebody comes in and says they want insurance and you say do they have ibd's and we say yes and they said we won't cover you or will cover you for $5000 a month. they also told the health insurance companies, in addition to not only picking up the sick people coming at the pick up the people you rejected, yet the pickup new people who haven't been able to afford health insurance and provide them with subsidies to make it possible for them to get health insurance. in fact, that's there. a lot of those people haven't seen a doctor in two or three years and they probably have conditions that need some treatment. this probably a lot of undiagnosed diabetes, a lot of diagnose heart disease and always kind of things but the first five or ten years it will be expensive. of course, the health insurance companies pointed out to the legislators when they are putting this thing together. in conference and committee, they put together this thing called a risk corridor. but that does is says during the first decade of obamacare, if an insurance company loses money, taking on the sick people, we w

. >> ibd has done a pretty good job the last two times. >> they got it. >> and they were the only realeverybody laughed -- >> plus five, plus seven. >> they were an ally. it was easy to dismiss it. >> pollsters, they're so afraid to be wrong, so they merge together. shove it in a drawer. it has to be close so no matter what happens in the end, i said it was close. >> what was the biggest opportunity and the biggest risk. i think we got to the opportunity which i think was greater. potential growth and reduction of regulations. what do you see as the biggest risk of a trump presidency? >> him scaring people. him just flying off the handle. i don't think he will, but i think it's a risk. i think the other thing on the supreme court, harry reid was talking about the nuclear option. if the democrats play tough in these openings, we could have a nuclear option coming the other way back at harry reid. he used it to pack the washingtwas -- back the washington court. now if we end up breaking all these traditions of the senate -- >> the way things get done. >> -- it will be a very tough situat

this is abc news has a tracking poll, ibd has a tracking poll and rasmussen are the three doing a rollingay-to-day tracking poll. stuart: and previously in the three tracking polls that you state, trump was way down and hillary was way ahead and now you're saying it's a dead heat. >> washington post poll had a lot of attention because it moved dramatically. i don't think that the electorate has moved 13 points in four days, but this happens at the end of racing, the polls come into alignment as the race gets closer and you've seen with donald trump, republicans are coming home to him in the final days of the race. stuart: and two final polls, i'm told that hillary is now really way down again in terms of honesty and trustworthiness. she's losing ground there. number two, she's lost a lot more ground with independents. are those two items correct? >> she has last ground on the honest and trustworthiness numbers in the last few days, favorability down. down among independents and the thing though, stuart, important for the clinton campaign, she's lost enthusiasm among her voters and among t

>> the ibd's up 9%. i mean, yes, it's true that congress will not hold hearings and attack celgene. >> merck is up 7%. do you know how much money they have overseas? that is of all the things we can agree on that is going to happen. you're going to have the congress. they're going to get on tax reform. and they can just do it. and this is something we've been waiting for and corporate america's been waiting for for a very long time. >> right. >> and it is generally viewed as a positive. i think. now, whether it gets connected to broader tax reform and individual and gets a lot messier, that's the key question. but that's going to happen. and that's being reflected in these stocks. pfizer is up 10%. >> the narrative has changed rather radically. now, 24 hours ago the greatest short in the world was the biotech short. the second was the pharma, right? >> right. >> because hillary's going to win and we're going to have full scale investigations and we're going to have the ceo of mylan back to say, hey -- no

this time, it has to do with cardiac devices and ibd devices.ronic says the company is focusing on "tucked in acquisitions" to drive growth. but a lot of times, they want to see organic growth and not one from acquisitions. we go to the bloomberg and the year to date097, chart, in blue, s&p 500, white, s&p 500 health care equipment index and they are tracking along most of the year in tandem. two things stand out, first, divergence after the election. s&p 500 shot up toward the record high, while device maker index has plunged. index, healthis care device index is now broken. when we look at the orange line, it represents buying support. buyers were willing to support the stocks here, here, here, but today, not so much. 5% weighting, suggesting the index could have a hard time holding on to these all-time record highs. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thank you. for a raten high hike by the federal reserve next month. it remains at 100% in the market. earlier, chief fixed income strategist jeff rosenberg looked at the increase to how the fed approache

groundhog day moment yesterday of james comey, again, saying no charges, and at this point he's up on ibd's a problem, isn't it? >> no, the electoral map is much improved and you have heard people saying the race is over and the path is closed and we have six different routes and we are pursuing them all, and it's not a big mystery because you have seen where we have deployed our best, mike pence and trump, and we have clinton and her team on defense and we forced them back in places like michigan, pennsylvania, colorado, and the blue states that barack obama carried twice. by the way, he carried them with well over a comfortable 50% margin. she is nowhere near that. i said many times on your show and will say it again, she's never able to get to 50% and stay there in any of the key states. that's a troubling sign for something that represents the status quo, and on the eve of the election what will they learn about clinton where they say i can look past the lies and deception and look past that she has an unremarkable senate record, and it's not happening. we are going to win this electi