as i think many of you know about every four years the ie iea -- iea conducts a peer review of the memberuntries energy policies and the broader energy landscape and today we are looking forward to the iea unveiling its latest in-depth review of the united states energy policy, a friendly audit is how we like to imagine it. the last of these reviews happened in 2007 where the focus was on the energy policy act of 2005 and a number of significant policy changes that we are benefiting from greatly. it would be an understatement to suggest that some things have changed since 2005 and so very eager today to hear from that iea its views on how we are doing, how we managed the remarkable transition from scarcity to abundance, what are the impacts and improvements in our energy efficiency in our significant increase in renewable energy and efforts to address fuel economy standards and climate change in a host of issues that are of interest to all of you. it is my great pleasure to introduce our two speakers, first secretary ernie moniz as i can safely say everybody knows. secretary moniz joined

one of the things, the iea, the international energy agency made a point of in their 2014 outlook was we've come a long way on a whole bunch of other things, we could go farther and there's grounds for it. one of their ways of thinking about it is this. i\o:ñ you look at all -- if you take ccs off the table. half the models don't converge, they don't solve the problem at all. a typical estimate from this kind of thing is if you take ccs off the table, the cost of hitting that target goes up about 150%. so more than doubles. and the international panel on climate change has actually put more emphasis in this, and this is from david victor at u.s. san diego, the cost goes up about 50%. it really goes up between 30% and 80% for 550. if you want to hit a 450 target, the cost triples. goes up between 200% and 400%. that's a lot of money, and it's just because in some markets coal with ccs is the cheap option. not everywhere, maybe not in california, maybe not in arizona, but in a whole bunch of markets, and a whole bunch of places in the country and around the world. ccs is the cheapest op

the iea that maria heads i think you are all very thin layer wi with.an organization certainly borne in eight time of energy security concerns around oil and remains of course extremely engaged in a energy security discussion but now it's a much broader discussion than it was four decades ago at the founding of the iaea and also a few words about that and i'm sure maria will touch on that theme as well. we all know as jason alluded the enormous changes that you had not only in the four decades but also the six years since the last in-depth review was carried out so i'm not going to try to review all of those but let me just say a few words about what are clearly some of the priorities of the administration and the present administration and the department of energy. first let me say a few words on climate policy. obviously in terms of the president's approach we talk often and in a quite committed way about pursuing and all-of-the-above approach which really means making the investments to enable all fuels, all pathways to the clean energy future to be

iea said supply from non-opec producers will be bigger.ed for its 10th weekly drop since opec decided to -- against reducing output. breaking news on the real estate front. the real estate assets of blackstone. we go to the breaking news desk. >> blackstone is continuing to reshape its real estate portfolio. blackstone is going to sell its retail center stake to the largest u.s. operator of shopping centers. it was a partner with blackstone on this deal. blackstone bought those shopping centers in june of 2013. forthey will be selling out $925 million, a pretty nice profit. blackstone is in the midst of a sellingtransformation, real estate investments, trying to signify the portfolio ahead of raising a new global real estate fund. kimco is trying -- trying to reduce joint ventures. blackstone agreeing to sell its joint venture stake in 39 shopping center properties to kimco. >> thank you so much, olivia sterns. we are under 30 minutes away from the start of trade. let's count you down with the top 10 headlines hitting our radar before the

both the eia and the iea are also expecting africa to increase coal use by 50 to 70% between now and about 2040 at the african summit that was held in washington, d.c. several months ago i thought that african leaders made it abundantly clear that they will use coal for the 600 million people on that continent that have little or no electricity. india at the u.n. climate conference in new york city several, late summer, made similar points. this past summer the leaders of brazil russia, india, china and south america launched the new development bank with $50 billion in subscribed capital and authorized capital of approximately $100 billion as an operating bid to finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects, coal being one of those kind of projects. so let's be clear. if you eliminate coal use in the united states, eliminate all the coal using power plants in the united states, we will achieve a 3% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions globally. the eia i.e. a representative who was on the previous panel noted this new medium-term outlook that the iea has just released

but this is the forecast of iea and for the, you know, growing consumption of goal.and the one point i want to draw your attention to is this chart is called a new policy scenario. which means this chart has taken into account some new policies of different countries. even policies that have not yet implemented. so this means coal consumption will grow even though we have some proposed policies or trends or, you know, administrative measures. and then another point is, the major portion of the increase will come within ten years from now. so we have to be thinking about what we can do, you know, in years, not in decades. today i want to talk more about the qualify of power plant opposed to coal itself. so the same kind of chart from the perspective coal plant, the coal itself, coal plant. increase as well. and capacity addition projected in the world, in 2014 will be 1,360 gigawatt. so when a coal power plant is above .5 gigawatt, it is a large scale power plant. simple calculation will tell you how many power plant this will transfer into. in 2014 we are going to ha

going through one of the iea reports and just thought it was fascinating. and so i think they are relative. these things tend to be relative, but relative advantages and disadvantages to different types of clean coal technologies depending upon time horizon you are looking at, depending upon the market investment frameworks and structures. anyway, let me open up the floor for discussions. sorry, if you could please identify who you are and then asked the question in the form of the question that would be great. >> thank you. the excellent presentation. well, clean coal technology. i think two different pieces of questions, although the beauty of higher, more efficient combustor technologies including esc and the retail ccs. well, i think we should be more careful about. [inaudible] i mean,, achieving the objectives and growth of the global economy. i think that the best way to do it, higher efficient combustion technologies, essentially regardless of the commercialization state of -- we can each see people [inaudible] see them before reaching out [inaudible

the iea cut the oil demand next year because of growth worries. >>> happening now.st pummeled with rain and snow and 100-mile-an-hour winds. it is not over yet. we are tracking what you need to know right after the break. >> technology gives you security. technology gives you control and now technology gives you home security and control in a new and revolutionary way. introducing plug & protect from livewatch security, an easy to use wireless security system, customized just for your home. control from any smartphone, tablet, or computer and monitored by professionals 24/7. go to livewatch.com to get plug & protect interactive security delivered to your door. arm or disarm your system from anywhere. lock or unlock your doors, turn your lights off or on, even oversee your home with live video. with plug & protect your security system is configured, tested, and then shipped directly to your home. no wires, no installers, just peel and place. go to livewatch.com because with plug & protect we customize your security to fit your home. the plug & protect secret is techn

this is the eia's but it could be the iea's or stanford's or any other group.if you look at 13 different vintages and bases for these kind of equilibrium models around the world you get a similar result. you do efficiency, you do renewables, you always do nuclear and always do carbon capture and storage and always do fuel switching. you always have all those things and the numbers are surprisingly robust. this analysis at ccs at 14% but that's a robust result. one of the things the iea, the international energy agency, made a point of in their 2014 outlook was to say we've come a long way on a whole bunch of other things. we could go even farther in the ccs space and, in fact, there's grounds for it. one of their ways of thinking about it is this. if you look at all those different equilibrium models and you say what does it take to hit a 450 target, if you take ccs offer the table, half the models don't converge. they actually don't solve the problem at all. a typical estimate from this kind of thing is if you take ccs often the table, the cost of hitting that

of wunderlich securities. >> thank you. >> the executive director of the iea. we're counting down to the close in europe. can the rally last. we're just hearing about the cheapest gas in the country. springfield, missouri, 2.01. the volkswagen golf was just named motor trend's 2015 car of the year. so was the 100% electric e-golf, and the 45 highway mpg tdi clean diesel. and last but not least, the high performance gti. looks like we're gonna need a bigger podium. the volkswagen golf family. motor trend's 2015 "cars" of the year. dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future.you. thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance could be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. as nations develop over the next here's a 25 years,for you: the world will have almost twice as many cars. how much fuel will be needed to power them? about the same as today? 50% mo

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you know, i think your comment about did iea predict $63 oil? no, we didn't. i would like to say in my defense -- >> no defense required. >> that we talk every month we public something that is actually worth thinking about. i mean for everybody here. we use the options market for crude oil to work backwards to what the confidence interval is on forecast for crude oil prices. and that six months ago that confidence interval got down to the low 6 o's. we hit the bottom of the 95% confidence range for the committee here today, i just looked at some numbers for west texas interimmediate, the 95% confidence range, will it fall in there? that is for april of coming year is $50 to the low side and $90 to the high side. and that's telling you that the people who are in those markets, they're not really sure either. >> folks with real cap low are risk. >> i want to answer this. i read lots of articles just recently. there are articles that are pop news more than anything else. about whether opec still exists. right? it is still the same force that i was a little bit y

whereas prior to this agreement, the iea -- iaea had very little insight. this interim agreement -- which many said would come at the expense of sanctions -- is not only held, has not only been upheld by the ukrainian side buspar, but has halted the nuclear program and rolled it back in key respects, prolonging the breakup time and giving us far greater insight into their capabilities than we have ever had. the sanctions have largely held together -- actually, more than largely. they have held together. and there it is a degradation of the sanctions regime that everyone fair that has not come to pass. it would be foolish to jettison that progress when the prospect of a comprehensive agreement remains insight, if not imminent. and when we know if the united states were to unilaterally impose additional sanctions, we would blow these negotiations. the international community would blame the united dates rather than a round for the collapse of the negotiations, and the iranians would conclude there was little point in continuing the process at the negotiating

. >> and we have had the iea oil market come out in the last couple of minutes. some headlines from that, they said the sell-off in oil gained pace after the opec meeting on november 27th after they decided to keep its output target unchanged. of course, we knew that already. they say the outlook for global oil demand pore 2014 has been cut by 50,000 barrels a day. also saying the strong dollar and the listing of subsidies have so far limited price effects on demand. while in the last month or so, we've been focusing on the opec meeting citing weak demand and the strong u.s. dollars as reasons for this oil price, overall, they say surge in nonopec supplies to its highest growth ever and a contraction to demand growth there is the reason for the weakness in the oil price. >> initially when oil prices started to fall, they said lower gas prices mean lower oil prices and not actually seeing a significant decline in oil prices. investors starting to see this could potentially have an impact on global growth, in fact, even taking a look at the consumer. how does it be

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it wasn't iea came out and said 42 bucks is what the u.s. shale formations need? of course not every well. you know, this is kind of one of these price wars. of course it will benefit motorists out there. as saudis going at it now. of course opec is looking less relevant than ever and u.s. is looking stronger than ever. melissa: twice, thank you so much. >> >> fox business took to facebook to get your feedback on falling gas prices. your responses are pouring in and twitter. we love them. take a look at responses we've gotten throughout the country. gas is 3.25 in connecticut. i used to go there all the time. 2.58 in williamsport, pennsylvania. according to howie. jay writes 2.5 in gold borrow, north carolina. melbourne, florida, is seeing 2.74. that is according to vicki. wayne says 2.87 in cleveland, ohio. things are looking for judy in columbia, missouri at 2.32. it is 2.87 in north dakota. very cool. just a penny more over in torrance, california, from paul daniels. love to hear from all of you. like me on facebook. facebook.com/melissafrancisfox. fox business

the iea is predicting a fall in the global oil demand next year. what would that be due to?> the fall in demand is mostly due to falling global demand for consumption good, commodities and investments, we're seeing falling aggravate demands in western europe, america, and increasingly in china. the falling oil prices is a reflection of two things. one, demand for goods and services and investment is falling globally. and on the other side, we're not seeing a response from the oil-producing nations on not reducing supply as they usually do in order to balance the two. >> i want to take you up on that point. falling oil prices have major long-term effects, possible social unrest, weaker opec members may need to be bailedout. all of this can be avoided if opec cuts production. why haven't they? >> one theory why opec are not choosing to reduce output is this is some kind of grab for market share. at 30 or $40 per barrel, opec production remains profitable. however, north american production, canadian, and mexican production, much of it shale and tar sands becomes economically u

and finally, we at the iea, we believe that the market instruments are the best to address challengesr sure, but looking at the complexity of these two major problems we are facing -- energy security, oil, gas, economics, defense, all of these things -- plus the climate change, so many things are involved, there is a need that these market policies are put in a framework by far-sighted government policies to steer us in a right direction. thank you and thank you very much for your attention. [applause] >> thank you for that wonderful and comprehensive -- well, there's probably a lot more than what you highlighted there, but certainly a lot of issues to talk about. we have about 20 minutes for conversation. i'm going to open up to the audience in just a moment, but i thought maybe i'd start with a couple questions that i had. one is you were, you were pretty pessimistic about sort of the prospect for increasing investment in the middle east given sort of what you term as turmoil, right? but you were also pretty positive about investment in brazil which to some outside perspective could

one of the things the iea, international energy agency, made a point of in their 2014 outlook was to say we've come a long way on a whole bunch of other things. we could go even farther and there's grounds for it. one of their ways of thinking about it is this. if you look at all those different models and then you say what does it take to hit a 450 target for atmosphere stabilization, if you take ccs off the table half the models don't convernl. they actually don't solve the roblem at all. a typical estimate the cost of hitting that target goes up about 150%. so more than doubles. and the international panel on climate change has actually put more emphasis on this, and this is from david victor at u.c. san diego. if you're trying to hit a 550 target and take it off the table the cost goes up about 50%. it really goes up between 30 and 80%. if you want hit a 450 target the cost triples. it goes up between 200 and 4020%. that's a lot of money -- 400%. that's a lot of money. because in some markets coal and ccs is the cheap option. not everywhere. maybe not california or arizona but in

the iea cut outlook for oil demand next year because of growth worries in some big markets and economiess can now get an iphone 6 for $129 and a plus for $229. that's a $50 discount from the standard price. walmart cutting prices on the galaxy and xbox and televisions. betting that discounts on electronics is a good way to lure holiday shoppers. >>> seaworld's ceo is out. stepping down. james atchinson will step down on january 15th. he will take a $2.4 million lump sum payment and stock option after a rough year for seaworld. the park had a rough year after "blackfish" documentary aired. >>> the cia director playing defense after the report accuses the agency of abuse of terror suspects. "new day" has that right nouchlt >>> i think there's more than enough transparency, i think it's over the top. >> the c.i.a. fires back, the nation's top spy defending the harsh interrogation tactics. conceding it is unknowable if they resulted in any useful leads. new information about what heads may roll as a result. >>> and after dramatic standoff, the house narrowly passed a spending bill to keep th

iea cutting global demand, that forecast anyway, breaking 50 bucks a barrel since may of 2009. there is a dark side. charlie mentioned with the economy with lower oil prices means lower price. >> five-year low for oil and lower crude prices since june. there is move to get rid of export ban on u.s. oil. representative barton from texas this week introduced a bill in congress. he wants to make sure american oil companies compete in the much more lucrative foreign markets. this is conversation going forward. cheryl: i'm curious if you heard anything about it. that was energy subcommittee. >> there is movement in. house. need someone in the senate to pick that up. looks like senator murkowski from alaska takes the one into next session of congress. this will be a movement you will see to expand markets for u.s. oil companies. >> remember about lower oil. in america the consumer stip trumps the oil company profits by a wide margin. >> long term things will be good. net beneficial for the u.s. economy. cheryl: not when you're talking about layoffs to major oil companies. conocophill

this is the eia's but it could be the iea's or stanford's or any other group. things. we could go even farther in the ccs space and, in fact, there's grounds for it. one of their ways of thinking about it is this. if you look at all those different equilibrium models and you say what does it take to hit a 450 target for atmospheric stabilization, if you take ccs off the table, half the models don't converge. they actually don't solve the problem at all. a typical estimate from this kind of thing is if you take ccs often the table, the cost of hitting that target goes up about 150%. so more than doubles. and the international panel on climate change has actually put more emphasis in this, and this is from david victor at uc-san diego. if you're trying to hit a 550 target and you take ccs off the table, the cost goes up about 50%. it goes up 30% to 80%. if you want to hit a 450 target, the cost triples. goes up between 200% and 400%. that's a lot of money, and it's just because in some markets coal with ccs is the cheap option. not everywhere, maybe not in califo

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think it could be -- >> absolutely, and, you know, the short-term effect i agree, but look at the iea's estimates of the next "24" 25 years. demand for energy is going to increase by 50% in the next 25 years. it's all coming from emerging markets, but it's going to take $37 trillion of capital spending to drill the holes and get it out and build pipelines. that 37 trillion is pretty close to the half of the value of the market capital of the entire world. there's an incredible demand for capital coming out there, that's good for investors so 18,000 is just the beginning. >> very different things you're talking b.on the other hand, you're talking about the economy and then on the or the stock market. we've argued many times the stock market is not economy. they are linked, but they are not the same. let's stay and talk about the stock market. ultimately, do you think it's a good idea? can we all agree it's good tore stocks? i seem to agree it's not good for the consumer long term because i think the economy will slow down but i guess i'm the only one. >> it's great for the consumer, shor

the iea cuthe ia -- their estimate for oil demand by about 230,000 barrels. in fact, we just had a .orrection you now have the three biggest in opec slashing their prices to asia. knife catch this falling sort of front, the path of least resistance seems to be down as well. any resound is just an excuse to get out of these long positions stop short-term, according to the price futures group in texas or new york crude looking to test 55 after we broke 58 and the impact starting to play out across oil rigs and drillers in the u.s. where a lot of rigs have been idle, the most in two years. >> incredible. and the volatility in the oil is what we are seeing in terms of volatility in equities as well. >> a big drop in equities on friday. it has gotten to a point where it's going to put more money in the pockets of consumers, but at the same time, we have to think about the spending plans and future jobs that may have come with that. let me get to the estimates -- i think a 30% job -- 30% drop or 28% drop as far as the u.s. is concerned. but it doesn't make economic

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we are going to hear from the office of gas coal and electrity in te markets division of he iea one of the mot fluential forecasters and technology. we have an old frienand also former brookings colleague shoichi itoh of the japanese government come and we have mr. samuel tumiwa of te velopment bank and one of the agency's exacting thecol market since i think ost forecasts predict we look out the next 25 or 30 years that asia will probably be not the leading oup market for the use of cal certainly the most important. >> the format today is we are trying to get each speaker try to limi their embarks to roughly 20 minutes so tat we have a good piece te at the end for questions. we will try to ferment the discussion before turning over the floor. a few might be how to lok ten 15, 20 years out how toreceive particularly in the asn wer mark competing again also e resource of great importae and intert mainly liquefied natural gas. think the market will once again have to be cometitive with nucle ergy or is it ing to be one of those resources that we allowto weather on the vine with tragic co

the iea -- i think you are all familiar with, and organization the time ofrn in energy security concerns around oil. inremains extremely engaged the energy security discussion but now is a much broader discussion than it was for decades ago. i will say a few words about that and i'm sure maria will touch on that theme as well. all know about the enormous changes we have had not only in the for decades but in the six years the last in-depth review was carried out. i'm not going to try to review al of those but let me say few words about what are clearly some of the priorities of the administration and the department of energy. first, let me say a few words on climate policy. of the president's and in a we talk often quite committed way about pursuing and all of the above approach which means making the investments to enable all fuels, all pathways to be part of a low carbon future. that is certainly what we are doing and most recently, the big ins was a joint announcement china which you are all aware of, the united states committing to a pretty ambitious target of 26% to 28% reduction by

that's the thing to unsettled markets ten days ago, a week ago when you saw the iea, opec, you saw thesecies saying that the demand is slipping. >> right. >> i think -- i personally believe that china will recover and their demand will pick up and help tighten the oil market. libya losing 350,000 barrels a day from terrorists stomping out an export terminal. >> you mentioned the risks. we are in a market day where exxon and chevron are the biggest gainers on the dow and people sugare confident? >> we told clients on monday is that when you get these bear market rallies from high levels of capitulation and that's what we have had. etfs in the energy space, these are bear market rallies and look at, kelly, the coal names in a bear market for about three years. the oil names in a bear market for three months. so i think going into 2015 the first quarter i think the coal names could be the place to be. >> try to catch a falling knife. >> that's what people are saying. how do you know if it's falling or not? >> you want to basically see everybody start to get very, very bearish on it. >> whic

has fallen about 40% over the last three months, even if i look at estimates that came out from the ieaexcess supply next year is only 2.2% to the market. >> i know. >> i can't think of another world market the price has to correct by 40% to remove a 2.2% mismatch. now either supply and demand is totally priced in elastic or it leads to me to the conclusion the price of oil was supported in some way by something that we don't understand that the saudis have decided to shatter on financial markets. >> no, i think you're absolutely right. look at the physical market, we were talking about having 1 million barrel supply overhang and 92 million market. we had libyan productions fall back over the weekend, 500,000 barrels and yet we don't see a significant uptick today. a bit of an uptick in price but i don't think the physical market is nearly as loose as we are in term of oil prices. physical market could tighten up substantially in q1 2015 was could be in a low price environment because sentiment remains so negative. >> but i'm sorry, i don't understand why the price has to fall so aggres

we have had oil prices drop nearly 60% over the past 4 months and yet the iea is still lowering oil demandfor me, when we look at japan, in its fourth recession of the last seven years, the downturn in china, the situation in europe with germany and france on the precipice of recession there -- >> but doesn't that just mean that it would have been much worse if oil prices had not been as low? >> well -- >> i'm not saying cause and effect here. >> i mean, well, i mean, it's a cart and horse scenario. at this point. and look. the numbers out of the u.s. economy, today's gdp number, fantastic. but how much longer can the united states do this alone when we do see what the central bankers penchant for ma anyplace lating interest rates and the growth here versus elsewhere in the world and means to the dollar so certainly we're going to be looking at a situation with u.s. manufacturers, exporters trying to sell product into lagging economies around the globe. at a substantial increase in price because of the dollar trading at a $5, 6 and 7-year high. >> i cannot wait for the cnbc headline expert

we've had more than a 56% cut in energy prices over the past six months in the iea still continues torowth. what does this tell us about the global economy in general? things here in the u.s. look great, but i don't know about beyond our borders. >> boris -- >> i think you just jinxed the oil trade. you said i'm going to sell you 30 puts so that means we're probably going there. >> you know what? people say when i jumped off the bengals bandwagon they're going to the super bowl. i'm very comfortable off the bengals bandwagon. i think they got beat 80-0 the last time they played the colts. so i'm fine. you want to buy some puts? i'll give you some puts. >> i'll stay out of that market. i don't want to be a tourist in that market. >> okay. are you in the currency market? are you a resident? >> i am a resident. i tell you something very interesting that is sort of peripheral to this. if oil stays lower, i said to you russia just is in very very serious trouble. if oil just stays low, that we had a bounce in the ruble. if but if you have this oil staying at 50 for a year it's going to cre

the iea says only 4% of shale needs $80 a barrel. in the balkin, there is a number that says it's $42 is where, you know, things become unprofitable. >> you would ever, we're talking about solar, would you ever go near a solar company? >> in this type of environment, you have to watch the technicals very closely. and the technicals look low. >> do you love airlines? are they the darlings of all darlings? >> anything leveraged to the consumer sector, retailers, retail hers fantastic gains on friday. that was not by mistake. >> chemical companies? >> chemical companies are going to have a little bit more difficulty, of course. this is a supply issue. this is not necessarily -- it's a supply issue and very weak demand. but what oil tells us is also some of the demand shots that you felt earlier this year in europe and japan. so most of the demand shocks are actually supply. it's behind you at this point. it's more of a supply issue. >> so you don't buy -- who wrote that article, joe? >> which one? >> the demand article. >> jergen. danie

the iea also warning that weak demand raises the risk of social instability. but goldman sachs executive calls lower oil a blessing. >> there are a lot of positives to the economy from the energy situation to the resurgence of housing to the most important thing of having reversed all the leverage that was in the system and kind of reset the clock. so you can take something that's a blessing, lower price of oil which once you think of like a tax cut. >> take a look at the price of crude. you're looking at wti crude at $59.33. what are you smiling about, joseph? >> how many times have you heard that lower oil prices like a tax cut? i probably heard that a thousand times in my life. but i agree. but i don't know if that's the -- you know? i saw that yesterday, too, that he said that. i was like, thank you, but i knew that. right? like a tax cut. we know that. >> but it's amazing how many people push back. there was even a guy tweeting this morning meaning yeah you pay 50 cents less for gas and lose thousands in your portfolio. but it gives it to the people who d

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