my question is regarding your comments changing the culture of iea.nd moving it from being less of a rich man's club and bringing in new countries. so my question is what changes within the organization would you expect to come with that change, with bringing in several you new countries that have a different economic and development perspective. thank you. >> and one more right here. >> good afternoon. we focus on oil and gas and energy. looking at your presentation, how do you look at africa now producing oil and do you think of africa being a member of the iea and if so looking at the oil production, what do you advise, oil exported or refined oil, what do you think working in this between now and 2030. thank you. >> okay. thank you very much for these very good questions. about our projections, first of all, we make on the base of the policies. the numbers i show you with the existing policies of the governments, we will see what kind of trends we will see. we also have projections with strong climate policies. in that case it's much stronger. man

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executive director of the iea. let's get to the tragedy in california. 14 people have been killed. 17 wounded after a gunman opened fire at a social services agency in southern california. speaking in just the past couple of hours, police chief confirming that two suspects have now been killed in a shoot out. that includes farook, a u.s. citizens and malik of unknown nationality. he said the motive still remains unclear. let's get to jay gray standing by in san bernardino california today. >> hey there susan. during that briefing he reiterated they have not ruled out terrorism at this point. the investigation does continue in three locations right now. behind me, the center where the attack took place and then a roadway about five minutes from here where the shoot out occurred and the two suspects were killed by police in a home that they likely shared in redwoods which is just up the road from this small community. they are going through that home right now looking for anything that may help them understand how an

crude prices below $40 barrel after the iea says the oil glut is worsening. gets down dprgraded to junk after they launch a $6.2 billion rights issue and details it's china unit spin off. the chairman of fosun, the chinese billionaire goes missing halting the trade of five companies held by the

crude prices below $40 barrel after the iea says the oil glut is worsening. yum gets down dprgraded to junk after they launch a $6.2 billion rights issue and details it's china unit spin off. the chairman of fosun, the chinese billionaire goes missing halting the trade of five companies held by the investment firm and climate talks go into overtime. negotiations set to extend into the weekend as xi jinping calls president obama in a bid to step up efforts to reach a deal. >> global oil markets will remain oversupplied according to the international energy agency. the iea says it will continue to put oil prices under pressure and the oversupply will only get worse in coming months as additional supplies from iran will push more oil into storage. the volatility and softness has been one of the main factors. we're down .4% for the ftse. germany and france off more than that. u.s. futures expecting a mixed open. the nasdaq called to open up by five points but the s&p and dow expected to open down. >> thank you very much for joining me. good morning to you. let's

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iea says they expect the glut to continue in sift sifter as opec continues to produce. gold down 4 1/2 dollars at 1067. cheryl: euro is higher against the green back. all other currencies are trading lower against the grown back. another factor for oil today. nicole: as everybody focuses on fed, look at 10-year treasury yield. 2.22%. cheryl: speaking of the fed, yes, next week, here we go. there is now a broad consensus among private economic forecasters that the federal reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week. about 97% of businesses and academic economists predict fed officials will raise rates next wednesday. mark your calendars. only 3% expected fed to wait until next year to increase rates. 92% the forecasters last month predict ad december fed rate increase. odds are going up. nicole: numbers are expected to show that low steady job growth, low gasoline prices and small wage gains did not result in big increases in sales. economists expect retail sales to rise just .3 of 1% in november. core sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials,

the iea will verify all these steps and more in the agencies continuing operations to monitor the nuclear program >>> still to come, the volunteers taking part in trials to find a cure for the deadly ebola virus. virus. >> the only live national news show at 11:00 eastern. >> we start with breaking news. >> let's take a closer look. >>> welcome back. the top stories here on al jazeera. hundreds of syrians who were trapped by intense fighting in two parts of the country have been relocated to safe ground. the exchange of civilians and fighters from both sides of the conflict followed the deal involving the u.n., iran and turkey. israel supreme court is due to rule on whether a former prime minister will be the first in israeli history to go behind bars. he is appealing against two prison sentences after being convicted of bribery and fraud. the u.s. says iron has started full filling its its ends of a nuclear deal with six world powersment a ship carrying more than 11,000 ukrainian has left iran for russia. the war in syria has forced millionss of people to take enormous risks in attemptin

the iea will verify all the steps and more and the agency is continuing its own preparations to implement the extensive monitoring and verification regime of the nuclear program >>> at least 30 people have been killed in an attack in the north-east of nigeria. two suicide bombers struck a mark. in a neighbouring state gunmen opened fire and detonated explosives in a mosque. no-one has claimed responsibility. but boko haram is, of course, suspected to have carried out the latest waves of attacks that come ahead of a deadline. military chiefs were given to december 31 to defeat the group mained obtain significant progress it has made. al jazeera was given access to a boko haram base. >> reporter: on patrol with neithern military in the heart of boko haram's former stronghold, this forest has myth and noteriety. the thought of it fills many with dread. it is territory seized by boko haram. a new government and military leadership took over this year. it has declared that the group is no longer dominant. >> it is what is daily becoming more peaceful, better than it used to be. we believe that

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and the reason is, the iea which advises developed countries on their demand in the oil space has come out and said it sees no change in the falling price for oil in 2016. in fact, the market will continue to be oversupplied by opec members, and non-opec members, and demand is just not strong enough to mop up that additional oil. so the message within the last hour or so, we will continue to see weakness in 2016, and the oil price will continue to fall. goldmans have even talked about $20 a barrel here. so i guess bad news for the oil companies, but, hey, on the bright side, american motorists might be a little happier in 2016. back to you. >> might? i would say definitely, jeff. thank you. >>> jeff cutmore live from london. okay. still ahead here on "way too early," army sergeant bowe bergdahl in his own words for the first time. >> 20 minutes out i'm going, good grief, i'm in over my head. suddenly it really starts to sink in, i really did something bad. >> several new developments in the controversial prisoner swap involving congress, the white house, and yes the record breaking pod

with regard to 2016, we rely a lot on the iea estimates and the iea most recent iea estimate is for about a 1.2 million barrel a day increase in oil consumption combined with about an 800,000 barrel a day decrease in non-opec production. when you consider those two figurein the context of an oversupplied market of about 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels a day, you can see a glimmer of hope that we might be in for a more balanced market in 2016. now, the market has to make room for additional iranian production once the sanctions are formally lifted, and that's probably the major wildcard on the supply and demand equation. >> and i'll tell you what, john, glimmer of hope is a hard investing strategy. >> well, compared to the rest of 2015, a glimer glimmer of hope looking pretty good for our sector. >> fair enough. do you anticipate, and i don't want to mention names because they've already been walloped, some of the bronze are a trading at 12 cents, 20 cents on the dollar. do you anticipate it will be the situation where a number of companies go away but the ones that can hang on that get the cap

we will definitely fulfill our 1st pillar of our new strategy, namely opening the doors of the iea toemerging countries and leaving the image of the rich man's energy club being an organization, truly international organization and opening doors to emerging countries. the 2nd pillar is putting more emphasis on the oil security organization. we want towe want to put more emphasis on the gas supply security working on that and 3rd while we continue our pole position. finishing our presentation that the low oil prices, ten more years are not going to be daunting, and on the other hand not necessarily good news for the consumers if we look at the big picture ranging from energy security to the sustainability issues. india growing very strongly, and the choices that india will make. just give me one number. india in the next 20 years they will be more than 300 million people to the ending global population. and the buildings that they are going to leave have not been doing it. whatwhat kind of building they will have, the inspiration stand up with a mandatory efficiency policies. china is

the iea predicts non-opec supply will shrink at the fastest rate since 1992.oil inventories are still forecast to increase, particularly as iran starts to export more when sanctions are lifted against the country. so, it is hard to see any rapid or significant three -- rebalancing of the market without any sort of supply demand -- supply or demand shock. angie: the paris climate talks have delivered an agreement described as "elite for mankind -- as "a leap for mankind." the international energy agency puts the figure at 15 one $5 trillion -- at $15.5 trillion. we have an analyst here to tell us more about this agreement. these are big bucks, but there is a lot at stake. >> you've got an agreement that has almost every single country in the world covering almost the entirety -- cutting almost the entirety of carbon dioxide emissions. there is even a more aggressive sort of soft target in there, an aspiration target of 1.5 degrees above the target. it would require an industrial change the likes of which no one has ever seen before. the right"optimism" word her

iea is putting out the report. they are saying they are seeing a glut last until late 2016. another 12 months of oil glut. they talk about opec. they say opec will continue pumping. we saw december for opec is basically saying you can pump as much as you want. that is the picture for u.s. crude. 36.60. brent 39.49. a lot of investor saying we could go to 30. emerging markets stocks are headed for its longest losing streak in six months as concerns grow about next week's tread meeting. mark barton has been charting it. mark: if you want to gauge how risk-averse investors are ahead of the fed rate decision on wednesday, look no further than the msci emerging markets index. this is the last eight days. for an eighth consecutive day. period.5.6% over that this is the longest losing run since june. a slumping commodity prices to a 16 year low. concerns about china's economic slowdown and the prospect of higher u.s. interest rates, which are lessening the appeal of riskier assets. which is why the yen has endured weekly gain and three-month. it is the world's best performing major

and the iea, the energy administration, it reported that inventory surprised we're so shock shocked rose6 million barrels in the last week. analysts were expecting a decrease. but oil companies and oil pumpers have not been able to show religion at all. they keep putting out too much. ready to make a bold contrary and one of the smartest in the business. everybody think so it's going lower and lower because saudi arabia refuses to cut its production, the u.s. keeps producing but you're are ready to say what? where is oil going next? >> well, i think the first looks really sloppy down to about 32.50. but by the end of 2016 and into 2017, i think we'll get to $50 a barrel because supply and demand will start looking better in balance. liz: why? i've heard that all year. supply is going to look better. suddenly people will realize if we want prices to go higher, we will stop producing as much, and then they don't. >> well, i think if you look from the producer side, they're really running out of money. they no longer have hedges that cushion them from the fall in 2015. the banks are cutting

the iea saying the glut is only going to get worse next year and taking its demand forecast back, noteaving people really encouraged. u.s. production still over 9 million barrels a day. a lot of people think there could be more downside ahead, more pain to come, and they're bracing for that. they're not necessarily ready to get into this market and buy the dip just yet. back to you. >> thank you. as the chevron ceo told us, we have to remember that -- this is the bull case. fracked wells do draw down faster than nonfracked wells. if we don't put up any new rigs and new production, eventually faster than in history all these frac wells will drain and production should drop. when that's going to happen -- >> well, that's the big question, right? >> some point i'll win an oscar, i don't know when that will be. have a great weekend. stocks are down. the dow is off about 264 appointments right now. volatility is up. oil, as jackie just told you, is down. there's a lot going on. we have about 90 minutes left in your trading week. we're going to come back with the key levels that you need to

iea saying it will last.hen you have the iran minister throwing oil on the fire so to speak with his comment about absolutely no chance of delaying the output increase. we continue to stay short as the price trend continues to the downside. >> are we going two-handle here or what? >> it's entirely possible. if you look at a ten-year chart, i think what you'll see is, going back to 2008, that december low of $32.40, that's going to be the next big level to watch. there was a triple bottom. the market seems to be focused on moving down to those levels. if we get through there, then you go the $30 psychological level will be the next big level for the market to breach. >> we'll talk to you soon. >> thanks, scott. >> jill, you want to comment on what's happening in oil? you think we'll go below 30? >> it looks ugly. whether it goes below 30 or not, i'm not sure. i don't know the price direction of oil now. i do know one thing, natural gas is down more than oil this year. natural gas is trading below $1.90. the lo

i was looking at a report, big .il makes way part of this discussion is from the iea. 59%wables were by of the capital and the power sector over the next decade. rising to about two thirds from 20.26. that is quite -- if you look at capex reduction. this is the investment opportunity. simplicity?g overly virginie: if you look at sustainability anything about probable investment in climate which leads to issues of trend. renewable, you have to be careful, because the profitability of the sector is being challenged. it is a good contributor to the climate change issue that we have in the world. in terms of making money and a sustainable way, you have to be very careful. what i like is the energy efficiency. the smart metering. the internet. i think that is where you can have some really interesting business. manus: who will invest in the zone? virginie: oh i think many. it is not coming out of the question but yet to be careful with profitability. manus: she stays with us. japan, not confident in the world third-largest economy. it was unchanged for december and better than the market

crude holding near 7 year lows and this morning the iea says it sees the oil glut worsening. the big reason, demand growth now is slowing while opec's out look continues to boom the ieac global market is supplied until at least the end of next year. wti with 36 and change down another 1%. even brent at 39 and natural gas, look at that, below the $2 mark. >> we were -- you messed it up yesterday. halftime report we were up like 150 or something? >> almost 200. >> almost 200. we ended up, up 80. what did you do? which guy was it do you think? >> were you on the show. >> they were both there. >> could have been either one. or could have been each. but, you know what i think honestly what did happen, oil got weaker and weaker and in the old days if oil went down, it was party. sit that people think it's not as slower or. >> what is it? the iea saying it's demand and not supply. >> last two weeks we decided it was all supply. every guy we had on said it was supply. >> maybe it's just that the shorts out there in the market are just leaning on it because they're looking to make mon

they havegy names, renewed determination as we heard from the iea on friday, that opec will scrap productionutput limits, and oil supplied but situation will continue. -- oil supply glut situation will continue. london numbers declining, down 1/10 of 1%. i also want to talk about china and the yuan. signs ofetting some stabilization of the weekend, we are not seeing it play out across the markets. particularly in australia, we see a little bit more positivity on the back of a good china day. the best read of 2015 was up 11 point 2%. industrial production blue expectations out of the water. all in the data dump out on china was very positive, but we are not seeing that being played out across the markets, or even in the currency as much today. insurance of chinese current -- in terms of chinese currency, we will keep an eye on how it moves today. saw it basically depreciated the most since the august devaluation. here is where you see the devaluation, and this is where we ended up. we also had authorities announced a new currency basket. not too much details, but there is a sense that china i

a possibility that at happensnt, something and suddenly there is a scramble saysak up whatever the iea 3 billion barrel and injury -- inventory. thatadditional supplies may be forthcoming incremented from libya and iran and so on. i can't predicted. betweenddenly went from 25-$40 a barrel act up to $70 or $80, clearly, it would have a negative impact. for the time being, i agree with stuart. stuart: it is an interesting point. if you think about the conflict in the middle east, and there is still no premium in the oil price. george: something would have to disrupt flow. that is the issue. francine: think you so much. -- thank you so much. coming up next hour, we are joined by the president on the council of foreign relations where we will continue the conversation on the middle east and libyan oil at 6 a.m. in new york, 11:00 a.m. in london. this is "bloomberg surveillance" where the conversation focuses on macro decisions during said week. we will be back in a minute. ♪ francine: it is time for the morning must listen. this is an exclusive interview with ross mcewan. he spoke to bloom

when you look at the iea report, they are saying that the supply remain very heavy until 2016.pec keeps on pumping. javier: effectively. until now we were looking at the glut in the first half of 20 16th as we were going into the second half of next year, we will see the market balancing. what they are saying now is that the glut will continue till the end of 2016. thatews for oil companies, demand growth that until now has been very strong and has compensated for the overproduction from opec, is beginning to slow down. we are not contracting but it is a slowing down. the are to see signs of that across the world. it's not only the u.s. and europe, but also in emerging markets, and that is bad news for oil prices. francine: what does it mean for the other commodities? they are vastly different in supply and demand issues. javier: we don't see much difference between oil and other commodities. overproduction, a big increase in production, with a lot of investment over the last few years, for prices were very high. that production is coming into the market, just as we have a slow

macquaire said the iea's most haven't update suggests that the global oil market is unlikely to balancer-term and lower for longer wti appears increasingly likely. baird had a note out saying several big global industrial companies continue to slash both operating and capital budgets to adjust to the new lower for longer demand environment and the effect of the fed not raising rates aggressively and that would make it harder for banks to raise interest rates. there was a note about this yesterday. the bank of america, generally speaking about most banks, lower for longer interest rates would cause a meaningful downdraft in consensus estimates. the bottom line is lower for longer theme is virtually everywhere. simon, i think wall street needs to stop drinking the kool-aide and start drinking the eggnog for this season. gloomy feelings for 2016 out there right now. >> i'm all for that, more eggnog all the way around. >> i'll join you. >>> tim cook defending apple's decision to hold $180 billion of earnings offshore in an interview with "60 minutes." indeed mr. cook slamming the u.s. tax c

i mean today's iea report says we're going to have oversupply until 2016 thanks largely to opec, you've got oil stocks, 3 billion barrels and that's the highest it has been at this time in the year in 80 years and there are some people who is you can make money so we're $10 away from that. and of course the dollar remains strong. so all of those, you know, pieces, the only side -- the only thing on the other side of that is goodman, which is increasing. but i don't think there's any way that demand can keep up with this oversupply that we've got. neil: all right, buddy, thank you. you've been a busiy bee this week. jeff flock at the cme, and nicole petallides on how this could have a big impact on consumer spending. now, the impact could people see what they're saving at the pump, presumably they spend it, what are you hearing? >> well, that's absolutely right. that's the presumption; right? less at the pump -- when we talk about oil down below $36, lowest level since 2009, the gasoline pump is around $2. but we're not necessarily seeing the correlation between the lower gas prices, whi

the first thing that happened this morning was the iea report which indicated this glut of oil, it's going to last through 2016 and not only that but they scaled back their demand projections. when we get back to that fundamental story we still know the world is awash in oil and that is going to be for some time. 21 oil rigs did come off line last week but lots of rigs have come off line, in the report last week we saw we are still well over 9 million barrels a day. that's a problem when it comes back to the supply story. in the rest of the complex that the gas hitting a three year low today dipping under $2, $1.99. temperatures are very mild right now, in new york city we're looking at 66 this weekend, some people haven't used any heat at all. so that certainly is going to save them on their bills because these prices are coming down and they will probably be using less if the temperatures comply. along the same lines heating oil lost more than 14% this week. >> one of the guards here at new york stock exchange told me yesterday he paid a few years ago for heating oil $4 a gallon an

not an agreement predicated on trust particularly in light of their past behavior confirmed by the iea pmd report. >> i what to reiterate what been and i did the other day with you in the other members. regardless of how people may wee voted on the agreement, understand it is what is governing our actions right now with iran. and i think on both sides of the aisle regardless of how people voted we want to make sure the agreement is implemented in a way that it was laid out. i think there has been a concern on both sides of the aisle that there is an air of permissiveness being developed that will cause the likelihood of any pushback overtime to become less real and i think that is what he is getting at and i think people on both side the aisle have been concerned about. 1929 says they shall not undertake any ballistic activity. unfortunately he says it's called upon and i don't know whether they view that as permissive language but this is an issue that i think many people on both sides of the aisle are concerned about. is not veryseeing vigilant steps being taken and setting a precede

and iea balances, not just ours. >> you quoted led z ed led zepp. i'll quote led zeppelin one.time is going to come. when is the time going to come for oil. >> i'll say 2018, 2019, 2020. it will take a while to work off the high inventorienventories. if we get good demand in 2018, 2019, we'll need oil we're killing right now. projects in ultra deep water, arctic, russian, canadian projects that will not come back quickly. all we'll be running the world on then is whatever saudi arabia has in spare and then whatever shale oil can do on the bounceback. in our view of the world, the world growing at close to 4% needs about 2 million barrels a day of demand. you're only going to get about half of that and so we'll be back into the boom phase i would say by 2018. >> 2018? >> i'm afraid so. >> is it possible then that the price of oil could remain below 50 bucks a barrel throughout next year? because almost everybody is saying, well, don't worry, next year we'll be back to 60, 70 bucks. >> they've been saying that a lot. optimism dies hard. we have brent averaging $38 next year and o

[applause] that was the case for iea and for the and when hillary clinton becomes the first female presidentdo or be anything had of course, when she becomes our president that is to the nth degree i now introduce my sister from wisconsin the first openly gay purses in to be elected to give the united states senate. when she was less asked about this historic first she said i am now ready to make history i running to make a difference. given up. [applause] >> every ready your is ready for hillary? why i am proud to support hillary clinton. as an attorney with the defense fund fighting to make sure children with disabilities with equal access to education from the first lady and secretary of state with the ldp -- lgbt writes on the global stage. and the health insurance program that we do s-chip. but we felt there is a lot on the substance to the symbolism and i want every young woman and every young girl to look at the president of the united states to seize someone who looks a little bit like herself. [applause] we have been extraordinary opportunity to elect hillary clinton as our next pre

agreement predicated on trust, particularly in light of iran's past behavior again confirmed by the ieareport. >> thank you. >> senator ca >> i think regardless of how people may have voted on the agreement, we understand that it is what is governing our actions with iran and i think on both sides of the aisle, regardless of how people voted, we want to make sure the agreement is implemented in the way that it was laid out and i think there's been a concern on both sides of the aisle that there's an err of permissiveness that's being developed that will cause the likelihood of any pushback over time to become less real. and i think that's what he's getting at and i think people on both sides of the aisle have been concerned about. 1929 says ballistic activity. unfortunately, it says "called upon" and i don't know whether they view that as permissive language but this is an issue that many people on both sides of the aisle are concerned about. what we're say is, again, not very vigilant steps being taken and it's setting a precedent for the future. with that, senator kaine? >> you gave a