there are no military site that are off-site, that the iea cannot inspect. if somebody else provides to the iea and says we suspect -- and not on some kind of white w -- kind of a whim --that there was activity at one site, there is a process for that to happen, much tighter than what exists with virtually any other country. the notion that there are hundreds of sites that the iaea cannot inspect, it is true what the iranians to the pond is you cannot go on a chase and say we think there's a nuclear device in the supreme leader's bathroom so we will inspect it. that was something they said they were worried about. iaea to not want the inspect it. thatu have some evidence, they refuse access and refuse any of the compromises, then we are in a different world. we are not there yet. there has not been a single incident at a request for inspection of a site by the iaea that iran has refused. this is one of those that is hard to come by at -- to combat because there are so many of them. ms. toosi: john -- quick point make a about the premise of your first questio

he mentioned the cases of where iran didn't comply, but those were raised by the iea and iran correctedanism in place already for inspections. they would say they are as tough as they can get. the other sanctions, you mentioned, he fell short of designating the irgc, the main security body as a terrorist organisation. so he pulled back a bit. but he talked about the sanctions, there are already sanctions, there are already sanctions which is part of that, we have to wait and see what kind of sanctions are going to be imposed. iran, icanjust sanctions are going to be imposed. iran, i canjust imagine, iran makes a lot of the fact, it is one of the defining national interests, they survived years of sanctions and it wasn't lost on many that the rising influence in iraq, in lebanon, in yemen, in syria, happened under sanctions. so sanctions are not, iran will carry out its strategic objective. it has never been afraid of sanctions, but it is a country where people expect benefits from the nuclear deal. if this puts a halt to new investments in iran, it's going to have an effect both on iran

production that's according to your iea report this morning. we're seeing fuel inventories in the u.s. still rising steadily seeing opec pumping more according to the report. is rebalancing still happening >> it is happening, yes. the main point is that it's happening more slowly than most of the producers who signed up to the outbook caps, that's the way we are the rebalancing is happening slowly and gradually the excess of stocks over the five-year average in the oecd which is one key indicator that the producers have measured as success that surplus is coming down it's more challenging for them than they might have thought, but the tendency in 2018 will be for a balanced market. >> 86%, that's the percentage that you're giving us this morning when it comes to compliance, when it comes to the opec deal. is that good enough to keep everyone committed to that deal? do you think it will be extended will it have to be extended? at this point in time we're just seeing oil prices out of the danger zone, out of that sub 50 danger zone. 56.67 for bre

yousef: the iea cannot with comments saying the recent price gains are no reason to celebrate yet fearedhey are keeping a close eye on what is happening with the iranian nuclear deal and venezuela. how much risk would you factor in? mark: it looks to me like the geopolitics are taking a backseat around the world. we have not heard about north korea in a while. also, the defense secretary, general mattis, said yesterday that as long as the iranians continue to abide by their side of the deal, i don't see why we can continue it. yousef: coming up, governments in the region are trying to cut costs without upsetting social unrest. the latest balancing act. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ yousef: welcome back to the best of "bloomberg markets: middle east." oman has pledged to create 25,000 public sector jobs, but it risks adding to a budget deficit that was the gulf's widest last year. take a listen. >> oman like most other countries in the gcc relies on revenue. the drop in oil prices, the budget deficit has widened. the budget for 2017 was based on relatively conservative assumptions of oh prices

so far the iea has refused to try to go to some of these facilities. they're saying they haven't pushed it far enough for the trumpet ministrations liking. >> are just talking about the iran nuclear agreement. allen from brooklyn new york. you are the first caller for the democrats line. go ahead. >> caller: my first comment neutral andpocyab procedural. in the time of the founders there was no mass media, twitter or primaries. anyone who elevated as high up to be considered i the presidency was vetted by colleagues. he worked over to elbow and people knew the abilities of the people who are getting high enough to be considered for president. only todayhe, after the advent of televisionn and twitter and primaries and cable television, searching for things that attract eyeballs more than often shed as much light as your program, we have the ability for someone like mr. trump to rise for the top in the process of selection that bypasses the betting of people in government who are ready know he is capable of y doing the job. >> the point of the iran deal.

. >> iea me a hot dog. that's even better. hot dogs, crackerjacks, all the stuff that you associate with baseball. the weather could not be any more perfect for a baseball game than what we'll have this evening. obviously, 7:30 tonight is when game one gets under way. as i mentioned earlier, you won't need your sweat shirts or layers for the first game or two. game time temperatures well up into the 70s. what about tomorrow? we'll look at that coming up. >>> all right, chuck. thanks so much. >>> funny to hear a female talk about routes. >>> cam newton came under fire for that comment. in morning, he has a new message that he wants you to hear. how he's saying sorry just ahead. >>> but first, heading to prison for elderly abuse. a ralpand as a doctor, nobody ever asked if i'm a democrat or republican. they just want my help. so if donald trump is helping virginia i'll work with him. but donald trump proposed cutting virginia's school funding, rolling back our clean air and water protections, and taking away health care from tho

here is our exclusive interview with the iea executive director. >> very strong growth for oil them andhis year, 1.6 million barrels per day is strong growth. also next year, we see 1.4 million barrels per day. expects of supply, we the united states, canada, a decent amount of oil in the market. the producers decide in november this year, to understand the dynamics for the next year. if they continue with their policies, we expect sometime a levelr, we may see lysing of the markets. of course, this is not taking into consideration geopolitical developments that might change the picture significantly good -- significantly. >> indeed. even on record lately saying you are not seeing rebalancing taking place just yet. and opec representative says it is already underway. why are you divorced from the thinking? but wemaybe underway, have a substantial amount of stocks in the market. a historical averages to historical -- averages, for them to come down, we have to see demand increase, and the supply has not been as strong as we have been experiencing in the last couple of months. according t

it at the same time, we are also hearing about this length, about opec and the iea talking about better the may have been talking about before. we are also seeing opec saying some of these stockpiles are coming down closer to five-year averages, which is what they were aiming at. that are are issues more to the fundamentals, so longer-term demand and that lessening overhang of the stockpile. these are fundamental changes to the fundamentals of the market. that may be what is impacting this kind of longer few that shows a little bit of length. again, the market is fickle, it will move up and down as people see these things. we will see what happens as we go towards the end of the year. tracy: hold that thought, i want to bring in our guest, morten about, to anthony's point these projects that have been prices,because of oil if you have this oil price recovery, what are the chances you see income is ramping up production the way they have historically? morten: it has already started. even with the dip in prices last summer. what you are now seeing, as the curves showed, the wti is going v

we have api later this afternoon, eia and iea tomorrow and the baker hughes rig count on friday.ark: we get the fed minutes a little later. how stalled a position ahead of those minutes? >> using a bit of a short covering rally. we have seen some bargain buyers step into the market. we are not expecting anything really significant on the fundamentals side of the fed minutes later this afternoon. no doubt, there will probably be some short-term volatility into the market. we continue to find value in gold above 1300. a big, round number. and represents the 50 day moving average. -- you ande trim courage trim followers to get on board. trimurage followers to get on board. kroger rising of this morning. they will sell the convenience store business come a $4 billion operation with stores in 18 states. amazon is making inroads into the grocery business. uber faces five criminal investigations from the justice department. authorities are asking questions whether the ride hailing startup violated price transparency laws. they are also looking into whether uber had a role in the theft o

temporary terms of the stability of the region but at the same time we are also hearing about opec and the ieaetter demand forecasts than before. sayingalso seeing opec the stockpiles are coming down from five-year averages, which is what they are aiming at. this is aiming more to the fundamentals, longer-term demand, the overhang of the stockpile. and that fundamentals may be what is impacting this longer view that shows links. but the market is fickle and will move up and down as people want so we will see what people want. >> hold that thought, i want to bring in our guests, the founding partner of morten frisch consulting. to anthony's point, about delaying because of low oil prices, if you have this oil price recovery, what are the ?hances use the what you are not seeing -- the kurds have showed, wti is going very long, and brent is starting to pick up, which means that the companies on both sides of the atlantic are now hedging for the future. they don't believe that prices are going to go to $60, and if it goes to $60, it will not stay there for very long, two or three months at the mos

had within the u.s., senator dianne feinstein came out today and endorsed the iea and found iran is in the interesting thing she said is you could really great crisis with north korea if the iran nuclear deal goes south. now is really getting serious. betty: you would think that would occupy the president. litead, his twitter page is up over a feud with senator corker. he really teed off on the senator today. corker thats like tim to endorse him for reelection. himorker bed him to endorse for relation. corker responded by saying it is a shame that the white house has become an adult day care center. liked people have corker's three. i don't know where we are we have leaders in our country tweeting barks like this -- barbs like this. how damaging is this to the president and congress? republicans hold 52 seats in the senate, they need every vote they can get to pass legislation or move measures through the chamber. making an enemy of bob corker does not seem like the grazed idea. he has typically voted with the president and is a steady republican lawmaker. it is hard to imagine why tru

. >> let's assume that the iea hasn't on the inspections that they need to do. let's assume that iran is promoting terror throughout the region. cracks let's assume all these things for arguments sake. you to tellust like me, what is the number one thing we can do to enforce the client street -- to enforce the agreement, and what is the number one thing we can do, the number one toughest sanction we can impose without violating the deal? ambassador question mark -- ambassador -- the sections without violating it. >> use the joint committee process this dark -- to challenge iran on all of these issues we've talked about today. the access to military bases -- the issues that have been raised by mr. albright, some of the other actions that are in 20 to 31, the u.n. resolution, and press the iranians through that process. at the end of that process, there are steps we can take, short of walking out of the agreement, that could limit some of our commitments. for example, to provide them technical economic trade. >> what's the number one thing we should do, use a join

>> the prime minister said the getting hundreds of billions of dollars and finally ambassador, the iea said technically iran is complying. the bottom line, do you think the obama administration policy, do you think it's approach to iran actually did and will change their behavior? >> well, it's made it more aggressive and more dangerous. the obama policy was appeasement and it failed. just on the iaea, very quickly, they have reported iranian noncompliance. i think they are testing the envelope but even more importantly, the iaea has also said it doesn't know what's going on on the military bases where the critical weaponization issues are being developed. >> it doesn't know what's going on in iran's military bases. that is probably one of the most important statements and issues on this issue that anyone can say. investor, thank you for your analysis as always. >> thank you. arthel: there are new developments in the harvey weinstein sex abuse scandal. new accusations of assault today. this time, in the uk. brian has more. brian, what do we know about these latest accusations. >> three

man who did the shooting got out of the car with two guns in his hands, but that is also something iea young, tall, short? >> the man that i saw looked about 30, a larger man, but i didn't get a great view of him. and then the other man that ran, i never saw at all. >> when you say not putting up a fight, did he look like he was injured? >> no, he was on his knees, he had his hands behind his back. seemed like a normal arrest. >> did he seem calm? what was his demeanor like? >> his face was away from me. i just saw the back of his head. but he didn't seem like he was putting up a fight. he was, you know, he was on his knees getting arrested. >> did you see people -- >> well, there were police going along the highway. traffic was completely stopped. i mean, it was a mess for at least an hour, the roads. but that's the least of anybody's concern. >> take us through your perspective of where you were. >> i was walking dohe chambers? >> the school is on the west side highway. >> roughly around what time? >> roughly 3:30 or so. >> i know. what did you see first when all this happened? >> th

time after time when the agreement -- when the iea has been asked to give its ruling which is quarterly, they have identified that they have found no violations of the nuclear agreement with iran. >> ali, the issue here of course that the trump administration is bringing up is not that iran is violating the letter of the deal that was signed, but there was a preamble to that deal and an understanding iran would be a better global citizen and good neighbor. and they're saying they are not doing that. it is meddling. they are involved in propping up the regime in syria. it is involved in hezbollah. it's not being a good neighbor. >> well, ali, that was the hope of the obama administration. to improve iran's behavior. but that was not the latter of the nuclear deal. the only thing the deal was supposed to do was curtail iran's ambitions of creating a nuclear weapon. so far it has done that. iaea said iran has been in talks with a deal eight times so far. now, there are flaws with the deal. there's no doubt about that. there are things that could have been negotiated better. but that's not

the entire international community come all of the all of thethe p5+1, world powers, the iea, u.n.'nuclear watchdog, all of the states and groups, they are saying this deal is working. this deal is fulfilling its narrow objective of rolling back the rents nuclear program. essentially, it is two countries against this deal. the u.s. led by republican president and the israeli government led by benjamin netanyahu. and it looks like these two countries are going to go against international consensus. but they released, we can the deal. news that jim mattis, the secretary of defense, said just tuesday in testimony before congress that he supports the deal? of course, the u.s. has said that iran has lived up to it's part of the agreement. >> they have. and i think it is going to be important to see what happens in the coming weeks. there are a few things to remember. first off, the u.s. does not have unilateral authority to destroy this deal. this deal belongs to the un security council, the international community is endorsed by the u.n. security council. and the certification process,

see weaknesses in the deal and we actually can't really verify portions of this deal because -- the iea eight don't have access to certain military sites and iran has essentially barred them from that access and he writes that officials won't even ask because they are worried about giving president trump an out here. >> harris: this is getting a lot of attention. i want to get your thoughts on this. the president yesterday. >> [indistinct] we have the world's greatest military people. i will tell you that. thank you all for coming. thank you. >> what storm, mr. president? >> you will find out. >> kennedy: because i have a masters in reading it to trump, but the president has to say. i think that this is, he is just intentionally vague. he is talking to kim jong un in north korea. but one thing i will say about the iran nuclear deal among businesses who have already started inking deals with iran, they are behaving as if this deal is not going to go away. the french energy giant along with the chinese company, its deal in july at the end of this year was worth billions of dollars, plus i

>> everybody that is to look at this, starting with the iea, all of our allies, there's no evidence whatsoever that iran has violated the nuclear deal because it hasn't violated the nuclear deal. >> what about some technical issues that have gone on? what have you heard about that? >> well, there was a technical issue involving a slight exceeding of the limit with respect to arrive water. that would immediately corrected. the -- the inspections are daily. the inspections are intrusive. if we want to go, if the inspectors want to go to places that they suspect activities going on, the bar is very low to getting access to those places. the deal is working as intended. the question is, does the u.s. live up to its obligations under the deal? that's ironic that this country that we view as an international outlier, all of a sudden the roles are reversed and it's the u.s. that's breaking faith. it's the u.s. that's not upholding its end of the bargain. it's the u.s. that's breaking with our allies. it's the u.s. that's making iran a more sympathetic country. that's quite a feat and the president ne

look at commentary from the iea as well, ahead of recent price gains, should not be celebrated as a victorythere's more challenges down the road, and also energy saying that supply declines are likely to keep pace with dropping them to the first half of 2019. anna: meanwhile, yousef, good morning to you -- the saudi king , a historic visit to russia today. do we know a little bit more about the visit -- what the visit is not about? yousef: yeah, the latest comments we have, it will not be about a participation of russia and the saudi-aramco ipo. as much as they are seeking a common extension on opec and non-opec agreement, it's not going to come down to anything more substantial that -- they meant. -- all theld be questions about possible delay, about where they're going to list about, how the process will go, but valuations of course. oil prices on here. yet onherance is just that front. anna, manus. much.ink -- thank you very jane foley has been listening to putin, yousef. this is what opec has done in terms of production, and likewise with russia. . see, the saudi's have done a lot in te

in reference to what they said, that's in reference to what the iea is doing in the inspections. with that no one is questioning what they've seen so far they are in compliance. >> you said something in a speech a couple months ago. it was a rhetorical question, which is the iran deal. you said congress has to determine whether it's too big to fail. do you believe it's too big to fail? >> you know, it certainly seems like the international community acts like it's too big to feel. when the international community gives iran a pass, for all of these, the arm sales, their support of terrorism and they look the other way all in the name of keeping a deal, then you're looking at something that's too big to fail. that's the problem. what we're trying to say is just because we all made the deal, just because that was done previously, it doesn't mean you don't go back and look and say is it still working. is it still working, are we doing the right thing. that's what we have to make sure we do is to make sure we're looking at these graagreements s it still in america's interest. >> the

. >> newt: not technically, but the iaea will not ask them because of told the iea. >> harris: technical versus reality is where we are. >> marie: the iaea is over and over and over again certified that iran is compliant. >> newt: they visited the military bases. >> harris: don't you think they should see the military bases? >> marie: we have to have axonal intelligence under the deal. if we have a cost to get into a site in iran, we can force it. >> newt: said there good at being sneaky to be don't have a reason to ask them. >> lisa: i have not been able to get in here yet. if i wave at everyone of their head in size because american intelligence is really good at this. with hundreds of inspectors crawling all over the country. before the problem is i think people like marie and those on the left are going to want to put the chrism on the trump administration, but the criticism on the united states we should be looking at what the iranians are doing. not the united states were saying death to the iranians. it's not the iranians who put sailors on their knees, put guns to their heads and

then of course there are the ongoing well-known problems of the iea gaining access to military sites. the issue remains unresolved, a new issue with section t which covers bans on nuclear development and the implementation of section t was recently confirmed by the director general of the iaea. >> could you just clarify that in your testimony? >> i'm sorry? >> just repeat that and just clarify. >> recently the director general of international atomic energy agency confirmed that section t remains unimplemented and is actually asked for guidance on how to treat this because russia opposes the inspectors visiting military sites. the justification and need to better enforce and fix the nuclear deal and associated grievance is clear but what to do? we are waiting president trump's decision regarding the 90 day srgs under and the administration's rollout of its iran policy more generally. if the administration does decertify, i believe it would be fully justified under justified even setting aside what are called on cure material breach issues which i agree are debatable the president has

spent and all those four primary countries, both in the form of international disaster assistance, ieaand it's also utilize. we can pay the 990 million was all spent this year into the four countries indicated towards the end of the year, and of the fiscal year we really started getting that out the door in large volumes as well as making sure those primary partners and operations received funding and has been expended. we are carrying forward money from 2017 in 22018, which is not enough normal occurrence and will be carried forward. we are closing the books that we will be carried forward title ii resources as well as iba resources, the office of foreign disaster assistance and usaid. >> at are the claims that senator got referred to, where they purchased out of those dollars? >> they were purchased in 2016 if i'm correct and those were not part of the 2017 funds and they were purchased using international disaster assistance funds, yes. >> can you talk about who are the next countries that are working in those four areas that have provided funding to try and address the prices? >> w

eric: you mentioned the military side, the iea inspectors don't go in, national council of resistanceevealed new evidence that they say military site that is they claim that there is, you know, suspected military activity and they are the iranian opposition and they have hailed this agreement, they have called tehran a terrorist regime, they say finally tehran is being confronted. let me play you a sound bite, head of national council of iran, she's praising the agreement. >> the u.s. government recognizing under this regime ending years of misguided policy and the desire for region change and freedom and democracy. this regime has proven before all of changing behavior. it is a religious dictatorship and domestic -- [inaudible] >> the only solution is regime change by the iranian -- eric: iranian behavior has been the issue, finally, michael, do you think what the president is doing is leverage, can potentially change iranian behavior at some point? >> well, i think if you see a number of sanctions on the missile program, on the support for terrorism and let's not forget that, you kn

temporarily in that , but overall, our intelligence community believes they have been compliant and the iea also says some. >> will you be recommending to president trump that we continue cpoa to through the j maintain -- contain iran's nuclear capability? sec. mattis: we have two issues, one is the jcp away and one congress passed. butthose two are distinct integral with each other. as you look at what the congress has laid out, a somewhat different definition of what is in our best interest, and need to look at these distinct but integral issues the way the president has direct did. >> -- directed. >> if there is to be any change in our status of the jcpoa, especially if it involves the sanctions against iran outside of jcpoa, will you inform and talk to us because i'm only -- sanctionsny voted for with an understanding they would not be linked. this would: i think probably be most appropriate by the secretary of state and i would follow him appear. -- up hear. and the secretary of state have the lead on that, but once a decision is made i will be in on the decision. i will give input, of

earnings report that's next week oil, up today, we're now at the 51 and a third range, even though the ieaoil on our hands. tell that to the oil market which continues to rise here and then bob, we were watching the mexican peso carefully today when president trump was talking to president justin trudeau maybe it's possible we come up with a deal with canada, but not with mexico, but it didn't bother the mexican peso. which for a time was very much very sensitive anything the president said >> that's not. that's interesting, a market saying we don't believe we're going to lead out mexico just a couple things, i know it's slow moving, we have stocks that never go down anymore historic highs again every single day, these things have been pair bollic for six weeks now. courtney talking about the team retailers. they're not differentiating anything they're just all down today. one of those days that just sold off the entire group i don't know if that survey had anything to do with it all the banks down today that happened very, very typically in this earnings season >> thanks bob. recording on

getting -- you are hearing from the iea that it is more about shale producers even if opec produces moree u.s. show -- shale industry to innovate. i would see $60 a barrel to be an upside. you will get huge supply from those kinds of prices. issue could kurdish be a big issue over the year or two ahead as the battle to contain isis subsides and this question about the status of the kurdish state. you will get supply issues, but as long as you have this massive scope for innovation in the u.s., i don't see oil breaking out of this range. francine: what does that mean for inflation? are you looking at what it means for saudi arabia? rupert: i don't think it is the main drive for inflation. if you are playing the inflation market, you're looking at short-term oil beat up. long-term, oil is not going to be the driver. for saudi arabia, this is still unknown. will the reform plan work? as long as it stays within the acceptable range, it will not be the deciding factor. the news about this brady -- the saudi aramco ipo is interesting. oil?are you overweight i have no idea what to do with the r

the iea says supplies from the u.s.s from dropping further, and that could limit price hikes. that's your bloomberg business flash. tom, francine? tom: taylor, thanks so much. one thing we try to do it "bloomberg: at surveillance" is avoid speculation. here's gave sherman yesterday of vanity fair, in a short article laced with just that, rumor and speculation. the president's longtime confidence, along with character of leaks emerging from the white house has shifted. as a new level of concern. the white house denies these counts. presidents mood is good, and an outlook on the agenda is very positive, an official said. we need to bring in our chief rumor and speculation correspondent, kevin cirilli. [laughter] kevin, my head is spinning, and answer bloomberg -- bloomberg wide audiences heads are spinning. tell me first about general kelly, and his place in advising the president of the united states. in terms of controlling who is going inside and outside peopleoval office -- tell me that essentially, before general kel

the iea says surging supplies from the u.s.l prevent inventories from dropping further and that could limit price rises. official, theit british bank has named john flynn to be its next ceo. of thes currently head book management unit. bmw is talking about outsourcing production of its iconic mini brand to china. the german automaker has been in discussions with china's biggest suv manufacturer. in the first eight months of the year, bmw sold more than 230,000 minis worldwide. jonathan: across europe, political uncertainty has reared its ugly head. at best, brexit talks are going nowhere and at worst, they are going backward. in spain, more focus on an unruly catalonia and less focus on reform. just as growth is picking up on the continent, the political scars -- political skies are darkening. great column today on the politics in europe. i want to get a note on what you think of italy. what is going to happen through this week and why is it important? mark: italy has had three votes on constitutional reform, which has passed.

happen to be there, but i have on good authority that that occurred, and that is the authority of the ieawhich has the a solid track record and has beefed up its authorities to deal with the most intrusive inspection and enforcement regime in history. price,ongressman david democrat of north carolina. take you for your time. appreciate the conversation. come back again. guest: sure thing. host: we will take a short break, and when we come back open up the phone lines. there are the phone numbers on your screen. on,t dialing into it later -- dialing in. later on, the 50 capitals tour begins with the city of nashville. that state's former governor phil bredesen joins us. we'll be right back. night, the life and political career of newt gingrich with the book "citizen reagan the making of a conservative." >> cable-television was prominent. >> cable news was not there. ofit was little pockets cable here and there, but it was mostly reruns of "i love lucy." there is no talk radio to speak of. just the big media, and c-span. and he quickly realizes the potency of giving special orders every aft

the iea cannot visit them. it's filled with major concerns of whether they are going to be accountable. >> we have a couple of minutes left. i want to say before -- i turn it over entirely to you, but i want to say that despite the lack of lighting, physical light you've been very illuminating about the problems we're discussing and also the -- about the congress's role in this. so if you have any final statement. >> i just want to reemphasize and i can just give you the freshman legislators perspective. we're obviously dealing with a lot of very significant serious issues in the coming months that will have a direct nexus and link to our national security here at home, to israel's national security and the stability of the region and what i always like to tell folks is, please let your voices be heard. the fact that you're here today giving up of your time to engage in this conversation tells us two things, number one, you obviously care enough about this issue and second, you're obviously very educated becaus