if we turn to em, what we look at carefully, if em is going to go badly wrong, it will go badly wrongchina. .the fact that the chinese yuan is so well behaved leaves us a little more sanguine. this is what you get compensated for in em, spread widening. typically, we are not in full crisis, but typically you want to look at info during these times. as i said before, it is amazing how quickly the market can go for fears and a certain narrative, and a couple of months later, where can i get that decent income? jonathan: can i tempt you in an argentinian bond that matures in 2117, and about 99 years? it's got a nine percent yield. would that tempt you? alan: argentina, no, but there's a behavioral aspect to 100 year bonds. everyone here is very good at their bond math. 100 year bonds only have a duration of slightly longer han 30-year bonds in the u.k. because we are so long dated. buyers were talking about 10-year breakevens on argentina. from memory, when people first went to argentina, the 10-year breakeven needed to trade at 40. it's on its way there, which is somewhat worrying. you

seeded for you would have to go to a fight i initially to see whose night it was in france and then if on em. the outfield players gave live a headache before he sends home. you're not on. the sonny leroy sunny's exclusion was particularly surprising before what had a sensational season with premier league champions manchester city jonathan toews was expected to get cut while strike in newspapers and had been a surprise inclusion and preliminary squad. meanwhile undisputed number one manuel neuer proved his fitness meaning badly no will stay at home. you know a squad has a group chats and. the will compound an option i know not just the character that was like it's leading and i'm fighting cocteau. the dream is over for the full departing players the remaining twenty three it's only just begun to. fight max miller from our sports desk is here at the big table with this tonight max let's start let's start with this big surprise the shocking news for soccer fans why has the coach left so no way out yet it is a very strange decision i mean live has his favorites and live can be very ruthless di

[cheers and applause] you have your three lifelines they're there if you need 'em.ou ready to play? >> i'm ready to play. >> all right, let's play "who wants to be a millionaire." [cheers and applause]

and if you can't beat em join em which k- d did. another guy who can't win for losin..r for leading the raptors to a record 59 wins.. but not good enough to save his job. they fired him. welcome to the world of coaching. remember mark jackson? he was fired in 2014 despite leading the warriors to consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in over 20 years. or how about jim harbaugh: the 49ers cut him loose cuz he got em close but no cigar. no ring, no marriage. it's like beyonce says: if you like it then you shoulda put a ring on it. ( darya )( darya ) from a guy who can't win to a guy who can't lose: kevin durant. he already has his second consecutive nba championship and finals mvp award.. what more could he possibly win? k-d got the nba award for caring! he was recognized for his various charitable contributions in the bay area, his former college (university of texas) and his native prince george's county in maryland. k-d helps kids pay for college.. he's built basketball courts for kids, he's given money to hurricane victims, and has treated breast cancer su

what they would probably worry about is, if they can't fix their own business, how are they gonna fix somebody else's? wow. shame on them. let's try to call 'emf you can. i don't know if you have any way to call him. >> yup. [phone ringing] >> hey, bill, how are you? you're on the speakerphone. i got marcus here with me. >> [on phone] how are you doing? >> hey, good, bill. how are you? >> good. >> i wish you were here. >> well, i wish i could've made it. i may try to swing by this afternoon, but i'm got some conflicts in my work schedule. if i can get out of here, i will try to make it. >> bill is a partner at amazing grapes, and in order for me to do a deal with this business, i need to talk to the guy who actually puts together the financials. i flew here from chicago, as you know. so what time can i expect you? >> yeah. how about 5:00? >> i'll plan on seeing you then. >> thanks a lot. >> do you drink much wine? >> i don't drink much. >> no? >> it impairs my decision-making. >> [laughs] >> and i write checks that i shouldn't write. >> [laughs] glass of wine over here, please. >> hey, i'm marcus. >> nice to meet you, marcus. bill gary. >> he

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we had a scenario where spreads, it doesn't matter if you go from the u.s. high-yield market, emything else,'s visit been can rest, partly because of qe and the idea that there would always be a central bank to step in. the whole market has to reprice. jonathan: it is concerning when you consider the rest of europe as a fixed income universe. typically, we think about central bank stepping back and fundamentals taking over. i go back to a conversation i had with mohammed and he talked about the typical handoff you would look for. in europe, i struggle to see how any economic example in history would justify the price of whent, or where rates are, bund,tive six-year on negative yields. it doesn't make sense. how does the ecb get away from doing this without creating many examples of the btp blowup we saw last week? will we see more of that? as kathy said, people hadn't price to do before and we're coming after free money around the world. that's ours problems. arguably if you look at the of financial assets that have done a good job, real assets that affect real economy, less so.

let 'em steal, and if anyone asks pretend that it was a good thing. now, does that sound a little by the harsh? >> well,arpedncia services indu. remember all those tough rules that fdr put in place after the great depression, the ones that worked to make our economy safer for half a century? when reagan began his systematic campaign of deregulation those rules came under attack and t sted under attack year after year after year, president after president, regardlessf party. for decades the fed and other bank regulators just looked the institutions found new to trick theirustome the s.e.c. was badly outdone. credit rating agencies signed off on the safety of pools of mortgages that were like boxes of grenades with the pins already pulle out, and the wall between high-risk trading and boring bank is wag knocked down as glass/sagall was repealed. the result should have surprised exactly no one. after aer our economy came crashing to the ground, dragging along tens of millions of americans who lost their homes, who lost their jobs, who lost their savings,

the zero tolerance immigration policy has caused controversy on the southern border and asked if he feels em boldered he said this today -- >> we have to find a system where you don't need thousands of judges sitting at a a border. >> reporter: and now the president made clear he feels justified in his hardline immigration policy and it is an open question of how today's decision affects what happening on the border but he did sum up his desired immigration policy in just four words and those were, you can't come in. >> kaitlin collins at the white house. >>> my panel joins me now. david urban, let me start with you. generally pundits are saying this is a win for president trump for his administration. however, he himself, when the this was all winding through the courts, said the justice department should have stayed with the original travel ban and not the watered down politically correct version they submitted to the supreme court and the new york times reported that the president yelled at his staff about having to water down the order saying, quote, this is b.s. so i know that pundits t

i love >>em. o if you love the heat, you're going to love these next few days.s, we're talking about dangerous heat out there on monday and tuesday. you want to that in mind, if you know of neighbors that don't have air conditioning or you have young children, you want to be checkingn the monday and tuesday with kids outside monday and tuesday, make sure they're bringing plenty of water. tomorrow is going to be another great da another comfortable day. take a look at the humidity levels, in theowest range i can give in summer. it's going to be a perfect day fo the up county commute and the wal and roll-a-thon. i posted more information about it if you're interested in coming ony facebook and twitter payables. you'll find the link right there. on to the humidity level on sunday, you can start to see them increase. we're right around the muggy level. it's not oppressive or terrible. but it's not as nice as today and tomorrow. as we look to monday and tuesday, oppressive humidity moves into the area both days. we're declaring monday and tuesday storm team 4 weather

will that cause reactions across the em space immediately? ifcb changes its terms and ends the qe program, will it have an effect? >> this is good news, when you are moving, papering is risk on because you're confident about the health of the economy. in aprily of qt we had -- may was eventually people ing the growth and especially the synchronized growth the u.s., europe, and emerging markets moving together. europe was the celebrating. if europe is catching up and the fed is close to being done, you ha an opportunity for markets to realign themselvesnd this is what we see from the ecb. mark: it's always a pleasure to see you. coming up later this, and exclw cohead of global special situation investing. erik schatzker will have that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: it's time for the latest bloomberg business flash. trading lower is today and it's taking the airline industry with it. cut its profit outlook due to the rising cost of fuel. fuel prices have risen 12% since the beginning of the quarter. 4%ena health is up almost and that is p

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this is the bloomberg dollar ,ndex -- this is the em emerging-market currency index. ifone out there, it is anyone's yes why we're seeing -- guess wh're seeg em today. you do not want to be long the u.s. dollar when the ecb might be hawkish especially given how heavily weighted th euro is 12 hours away from that ecb decision. looking at expectations, i showed this earlier. the fed might be tilting hawkish. when you look at the euro-dollar spread into next year, it does give you an indication we might not get there. in then the current bets market, that is one hike, two hikes next year, maybe one and a half this year. the market is not convinced. if you add those together, that is a moving target. year, we are not even at three, maybe at three, certainly not at four. they arein jerome powell has described the fed funds rate as getting to neutral. , you addat one model four new, it is already at neutral. we are posing the question, is it near neutral or at neutral? it is a theoretical rate, of course. the last time the rate went above that estimated neutral rate, you had a

"kill-'em-nik"? if you're a russian operative, you might want to go by something less suspicious.be try "sergey murderov." ( laughter ) so-- ( applause ) this is sergey murderov. da! flaw! ♪ ♪ thank you. thank you. so my question is, is it collusion yet? is this collusion at this point? gates was trump's deputy campaign chairman, who stayed on through the inauguration, knowingly met with a russian spy in the months leading up the election. what more evidence do we need, donald trump in a t-shirt saying, "i colluded with the russians, and all i got was this lousy t-shirt, and the presidency"? ( cheers and applause ) i would like that. i would like that t-shirt. >> jon: yeah! >> stephen: i'd like a copy of that. >> jon: i'd wear that.en: all c, all cotton. gotta breathe. >> jon: yeah. >> stephen: so, the president almost definitely colluded with russia, but there's equally important news out there. tiffany haddish said someone bit beyonce. ( laughter ) yeah, yeah, this is serious. this is serious. here's what went down. tiffany haddish was at a party in l.a. that beyonceÉ and jay-z

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we had this scenario where spreads, it doesn't matter if you go from the u.s. high-yield market to emerything else, spreads have been very compressed, partly because of qe and the idea that there would always be a central bank to step in. the whole market has to reprice. jonathan: it is concerning when you consider the rest of europe as a fixed income universe. typically, we think about central bank stepping back and fundamentals taking over. i go back to a conversation i had with mohammed and he talked about the typical handoff you would look for. in europe, i struggle to see how any kind of economic example in history would justify the price of credit, or where rates are, six-yeartive outpaces on bunds, we have issued corporate debt with negative yields. it doesn't make sense. there is no economic scenario that justifies that. how does the ecb get away from doing this without creating many , many examples of that big btp blowup we saw last week? will we see more of that? andrew: the volatility will pick up as the ecb withdraws liquidity, but as cap he said, you hadn't priced it in b

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sit around and so technical it's more about sceptical numbers feel some one on em games yeah rayman bang and everything so if we stand up we will start till. you get into that because there was an interesting. because it's a whole club cream from scandinavia that probably the most crazy i think sony one of the most right wing friends. that's quite scary. extreme for. the wise men and badly boys such all of those guys it is all about the fight becomes about the confrontation clubs know every game but when you've got a local rivalry it will be if there is any violence it will be about who comes out on top. and. for the let's say a couple different committed the one in. the greek capital is divided into zones of influence between the greens and the reds and i said i goes into libya because supporting hooligans. are just like every day something of a different. kind of thing if. you know about the long after the lots they come and where are the same difficult. but also want to. but i know my style a bit on the some of you have a limit on the government on this things going on a six and scott summit and we sample

em. the biggest macro for the next few months is how does european data improve? first quarter weakness was supposed to be easter. easter is long gone. we have not seen that improvement. ifdoesn't happen and the dollar continues to strengthen, why put money in em? jonathan: i mentioned to someone that you were coming in the program, and they said that priya misra nailed this this year. priya: as the fed ended qe, the rates most significantly. i don't get the sense that productivity is picking up. my sense of what equilibrium real rates that the economy can handle, or risk assets can handle, has not really changed, despite all of the positive data. i think 10-year real rates will be cap around 1%. every time they get close to that point, i trade long. jonathan: priya misra great to have you with us. alongside robert miller from blackrock and mark okada of highland capital management. let's get a market check on treasuries. yields lower on the two-year by about two basis points. the 10 year coming in six. the 30 year coming eight. the shape of the curve a little flatter. that conversation coming up shortly. the final spread. the week ahead featuring the mexican election an

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dust from the trade scuffle a health obscure what remains and improving fundamental backdrop em risk assets. ifk at profit margins, they move in the right direction. the problem is that the dust thrown up by the trade scuffle will obscure the investment case in the areas you like the most, because that is where the economies are better managed, and generally within our investment term complex we are steering away from latin america. it is a difficult period, but i will bet this will not turn into something more permanent. it means we are just holding on and waiting for the dust to clear and for people to realize this remains an attractive place to do investments because earnings are growing briskly and there is a nice mixture of sectors. anna: you can narrow in on the idiosyncratic aspects of certain places. turkey is very much in the crosshairs over the weekend because of the election. is this an investment opportunity in turkey or not? >> not right now. my colleagues have singled out some senior credits within the banking sector for a short duration. that is not for us right now. i think the

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he semz ems in some way that if people go on cable news to get a message to him he seems to be giving the president an out saying this is a policy the president can say john kelly floated that he never really agreed with. we will see what happens. i think we have to wait for what the president does. there is a big tuesday meeting with the house gop. you had so many folks come out, obviously more moderate republicans. the president isn't necessarily listening to them. this i think was a fascinating step forward in terms of observing whether or not the president is going to listen to folks and change his mind. >> if this was a bargaining chip that the trump administration was using somehow to bring democrats to the table, is it time to stop it? what do you think will happen? >> it was a bad baepolicy to be with. the president probably could use this as an opportunity to start talking to democrats about what troubles are happening on the other side of the border including the children. this was not the way to get there. the brutality that happens with children trying to go anywhere from

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a double where me from emerging markets, the general risk off means money outflows from em, and if youhe strengthening dollar, until you reach the point a good start to be negative if the fed holds off on tightening, is that the double whammy? trevor: we have a slowing china and a strong dollar, a bad combination. emerging markets in aggregate, many countries, export commodities, the import dollars. they are dollar financed and as a result, you do not want to see commodity prices struggling while the dollar is strong. commodity prices have not we can at the moment -- weakened at the moment, if we see a stagflationary picture over the summer, it could be increased risk for emerging markets and we will be underway emerging as a runs. concerned about europe. european banks in -- and massive windows and dollars to trade financing in asia. they have managed to do dollar lending because of large dollar deposits from u.s. corporate and they are taking that money back home. -- tovable we will see try to get ecb dollars to help european banks if the slowdown intensifies. the interesting thing i

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disrupted --ears if you wanted to buy em stocks in january, the dollar was going to be weaker.n first half of the year. the dollar and oil were the top winners, and em stocks did the worst. joining from denver is carmel wellso. as we go into the back half of the year, what will be the top performing trade? >> we are still expecting oil to do well. there's been a divergence between oil stocks and the xlt. there's a bigger chance of a breakout to 99 to 50 for the stage. will be al think oil good performer, but i would still bet on u.s. stocks with solid growth behind them. let's talk about what categories of stocks. -- didn't play out in the first six months. is it a better idea in the next six months or will it continue to be under siege? carmel: i still think there is a space for value, but i'm talking about the lower growth companies with good yields. let's take the banks, massive underperformers, not just in the u.s., but in china and europe. banks will be returning cash, buying back shares. the largest cap stocks are over 3%. they are attractive again, and i think people nee

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you know, if i'm -- if i have a roommate in such a small apartment, if i don't see 'em i'm definitely 'em. i'm certainly gonna communicate to 'em. and with two girls you would think that bathroom would be tied up all the time. >> reporter: did you suggest that the possibility existed that these two girls didn't like each other and sometimes girls can be pretty -- >> you know -- she -- ashley told me that they didn't have arguments but they had disagreements. and i asked her what she meant by disagreement and she said, "well, just girl stuff. you know? not fights. not -- you know, we -- we didn't hate each other. it's just like we kind of lived two different worlds." strange. >> reporter: hard to know whether to buy that or not. >> exactly. many -- many twists and turns. >> reporter: something else, something potentially huge. police found spots of blood in the bathroom the girls shared, a bathroom ashley used after theyy was murdered. so, did she just not see the blood? or did she leave it there herself? as you'll hear, detective ellzey used an old-fashioned strategy. he exaggerated t

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is the time to be very selective in where to take em positions rather than writing the em data -- beta. david: ifg market tied toes are a beta, projections of overall growth, does that mean the fx market is telling us these trade disputes will curtail level growth? >> what we are seeing from the markets is increased concerns not just about trade tensions but also in terms of a potential for the fed to be a lot more hawkish than the market is pricing. essentially, this is a strong dollar story, which is affecting the rest of e.m. valuation. julia: if we go back to the imf meeting a few months ago, there was consensus that argentina, egypt offered great value. this time would be different and emerging market fundamentals were stronger than in the past. what went wrong here, where you just caught offguard by some of the outflows, pressure we have seen on e.m. at the moment? that story in terms of the em being fundamentally stronger than in previous cycles still holds. what we are seeing here is em macro fundamentals remaining firm for most of the as a class but a series of idiosyncratic risks, some