but money from the imf comes with strings attached.ave continued for more than a week after the imf demanded strict austerity measures in return for a $4.2 billion loan. similar scenes have played out more than once in argentina, a country saddled with billions of dollars of debt and of the largest cash infusion from the imf. countries that are in financial difficulty often come to the imf as the lender of last resort but the money comes at a cost and it is often the people on the ground that other ones to suffer the most so are imf loans worth it? the countries that come and us the imf for help are simply looking into the abyss of are simply looking into the abyss of a financial crisis. and a deep recession, if not a long—term depression. so it is painful to get into a crisis and it is then that you come to the imf. by the time a country is at the mercy of the imf, the options a few. impose austerity measures or risk complete financial collapse. india has wrapped up its annual mobile congress. but there are many unanswered questions t

tom: that is so gloomy, just like the imf. [laughter] kristalina: who says the imf is gloomy?being instituted to help the world have more stability. --have more stability [indiscernible] looking at this graph, what is so very obvious is that it is the indirect impacts that we fight. loss of confidence. tom: that is right where i wanted to go. kristalina: loss of productivity. because people have to pay more for credit. so, the indirect is what we need to zero on very why? that confidence wants undermines is harder to rebuild. and we also know for many, many, thatdecades of experience the mother of all crises is a crisis. tom: david lipton and your latest september magazine mentioned governance. governance is about leadership. what is your leadership approach that will begin to instill the confidence necessary to get through piece of trade? kristalina: what we do is install-- what we do is that everyone is a loser in the trade war, therefore, everyone will be a winner in trade peace, lossake it clear that the may be higher in some countries and lower end others, but everyone is

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the imf's hussain has more from new york.mf‘s projection for global growth offers a bleak assessment of the impact that the trade war is having on economies around the world. as a result of this ongoing dispute between the united states and china, we've seen that the imf has downgraded growth for this year to 396. downgraded growth for this year to 3%. now, the chief economist for the imf says that if the trade war is prolonged, then we could actually see that growth fall even further. so the global economy is being impacted by these trade tensions. we have seen tremendous weakness in trade manufacturing, global trade, and investment. if this continues, it risks putting the global economy closer to 2.5%. once we get there, thenit closer to 2.5%. once we get there, then it tends to be that more countries are entering recession. trade tensions are not the only thing that is having an impact on global growth. the uncertainty around brexit and other geopolitical issues are also playing a role. so what can countries do about it? w

the imf chief economy -- ba decade low of 3%. imf chief economist weighed in. >> it is important this is a durable solution because the negative impact of these come -- --these are coming through if we don't think there is a durable solution, these effects will continue to have very weak manufacturing and weak trade, and we need to stop that. romaine: let's welcome bloomberg correspondent,ia visiting us in new york from hong kong. i think we all sort of knew that the imf would cut their forecast. everyone said for months that it was way too optimistic. is that still too optimistic? >> i think there is a sense that they might he's still behind the curve. a synchronized global downturn, downgraded the big blocks in europe, china, the u.s.. it is hard to get away from the trade story. they are worried it is really these trade tensions or uncertainty. so hard toond order, quantify. joe: i don't mean to ask a cynical question but i mean it genuinely. how should we view the usefulness of the imf forecast? i don't think it is a surprise

this interesting chart, the imf from 2.6 toforecast 2.0%.ll those red bars is about 10 quarters in a row of year-over-year declines. that is the trade war and this is the global, denominator. those insurance cuts are want to because of concerns the trade war could morph into something more serious. it is the trade war that is the big threat. so many central banks, whether they will cut more has everything to do with the trade war hitting manufacturing. local uncertainty holds back investment. imf is hoping for a conclusion to this trade war and in the midst of it they are hoping central banks can do their part to keep it going. let's bring back kirk west, executive director of investments, principal global investors. said inboss at the imf 2019 they expect 90% of the world to experience a slowdown. we have other institutions, the withings institution even a more bleaker situation. what gives? kirk: it might not be so bleak. rishaad: that is heartening. kirk: the latest forecast for the u.s. is 1.7, but we will probably still go to 2.0. u.s.

you lived the leakages at the imf. up with a challenging trade that china just exports their trade dynamics to emerging markets because they can't do it themselves? there is leakages, right? john: indeed. one view of the belt and road initiative, the largest infrastructure project in the history of the world, is to provide demand for chinese firms internationally, to help shore up what would be slower growth prospects in china. francine: how worried should we be about china? gdp figures later today. some of the private sector data makes for pretty unnerving reading. john: you can hear lots of views on this. the growth in china's labor force has slowed substantially, so slower growth from that aspect in china doesn't represent a problem per se. it lowers the growth numbers but there are fewer heads to provide growth for. what is clear is the process of deleveraging in that economy is creating near-term problems of sustaining demand. ago,when, just a few years the answer was reform was going to produce a brief slowdown a

the imf asia-pacific director speaking to kathleen.mp reversed course on his decision to host next summer's g7 meeting at his golf resort in miami. ros krasny joins us. this reversal after what he calls irrational hostility. reversal,s a stunning in-- and he is very invested his properties in according to staff, mick mulvaney still sees himself as the hospitality provider in chief of the united states. also came republicans out against this. we heard from some republicans coming out against the move to hold -- hold the g7 at this hotel and there could have been pressure even from foreign leaders who would be the ones on the hook for paying trump and paying the company to use this of how youegardless come down on legality in the u.s. i believe it would be illegal for many of the foreign governments to make those payments. it was an interesting case study . trump was surprised at the question from democrats and others. i don't know why. heis a case study in was getting advice from within the white house? maybe this is not a good idea, th

there is only really one creditor to this country, the imf. they need to sit down with the imf.there. give thehat's going to effect of where it's going. you need to think about it internationally. >> how much do you think the imf will give them? >> i think very little. it's very little impact. a 50% haircut would only affect 10% gdp ratio. a seriousneed discussion with the imf. back, doesmf pushes that force fernandez to take more extreme measures? view,from your point of as a ceo, when do you change business plans based on what the government will do? adaptedave to be changing your plans. we have been it, even after the election where fernandez had such a wide lead. our plans to look at to make sure we are focusing on low hanging fruit and more conventional resources. even now, that has to be balanced with meeting our commitments. we continue to drill. year, werd to next will have to see what happens in these first couple of months with the transition and where things and that. >> to you maintain your business activity? do you ratcheted down? >> you tighten your belt. we are go

any discussion of the imf involves the dollar.uch back to the wonderful heritage as well. tell us about the malleability or elasticity of the u.s. dollar in this new global system. if china is not so much free and floating, how free and floating is the system right now? strength, the dollar reflects a lot of what is happening in the global economy. whenever there is weakness in the global economy, if we are in a sunken iced slowdown, there's a huge appetite for the dollar -- in a synchronized slowdown, there's a huge appetite for the dollar. in the case of china, they have increasingly moved towards a more flexible exchange rate. right now, i would think that the global economy have to deal with the bigger problems on the trade front with domestic policy uncertainty, which is quite high in several emerging markets, and with raising productivity growth for the global economy. tom: we see the dollar weaker, may be of sterling news. the bloomberg dollar index weaker for a bit against sterling, out to $1.27. if you were to have a cup

i am here at the imf annual meeting with gita gopinath chief economist for the imf.wth tell us why you did that >> so there were a few tack tors one factor are the rising trade barriers and the continued geopolitical trade tensions. there are are a couple other factors which is kind of country specific factors in emerging markets and developing economies and structural force, low productivity growth, aging demographics in advanced economies. these three factors are responsible. >> how much is trade responsible for what's going on? >> if you look at the downward revisions, trade starts playing a bigger role. there's this general slowing we're seeing in the global economy but it seems to be driven more by the trade side. our estimate is that all of the u.s./china tariffs put in place in 2018 and one announced would reduce global -- the level of global gdp by 0.8% in 2020 >> what's a recession when it comes to the world you don't get much lower than 3 around here, do you? >> so once you start going lower than 2.5%, that's usually a scenario where several economies are i

this is front and center for the imf. it is front and center for the fed.t is front and center for global central banks. shery: kathleen hays, thank you so much. our thanks to tom mackenzie in beijing. the other developing story today, brexit. sterling jump as the eu and you cap are set to be closing in on a new draft deal and the legal text could be ready to present to national delegation on wednesday morning in europe. john joins us now. how much of a difference with this make if prime minister johnson still needs to take it to the u.k. parliament? john: he does need to take it to the u.k. parliament. the critical point is whether he can get an agreement that will satisfy those who have been against it so far and that is the party in northern ireland. and the members of the european research group, the hardline brexiteers, and the conservative party. what we have seen so far is nothing truly committal from the eup, but they have not been totally against what is going on. we have seen some great splits among the erg who have previously been united. there h

the imf is on the same page. back to joind come the eu in 10 to 15 years, -ccording t we caught up with him at the bloomberg conference in london. people are saying let's just do it whether the prices. that may be a hard brexit. without fully understanding the consequences, that is a bit scary. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yousef: thank you. here is what is coming up. being blacklisted, the trump administration targets eight chinese tech firms for human rights violations. we will break down. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. let's get the bloomberg business flash. hkes is dropping its bid for the london stock exchange. it is no longer in the best interest of shareholders to pursue a deal. for tradingack between the east and west. they will look to build their role in asia. samsung results getting estim

going back to the imf, though, last week christina, the new imf fund managing director said they have$700 billion from the global economy. is it an case that in order to bring back that $700 pl, everything needs to go back to where it was before this trade war kicked off in the sense that tariffs need to go back to where they were two years ago? >> yeah. i think that's right i mean, you see the weakness in the global economy and it's completely broad based is manufacturing trade and that weakness is stemming from heightened uncertainty particularly related to trade tensions at this point in the economic cycle where spare capacity is pretty much closed in most advanced economies, that is the time where you expect investment to take up the baton you need to increase the productive capacity of the economy. firm profitability is still relatively good and the cost of capital is low, the interest rate environment is low. so that this is a good environment for investment so the only thing holding investment back and why it's so weak is because of this uncertainty in the economy and until tha

liveeen: i'm kathleen hays in washington, d.c., at the imf world bank annual meeting. in this hour, i will be speaking with the secretary of finance from the philippines and the bank indonesia deputy governor about the impact of the trade war and more and what policymakers can do about it. shery: first, let us get you started with a check of the markets. we are seeing u.s. futures unchanged after stocks climbed to an almost a record high in thursday's session. the s&p 500 at one point topping 3000. we had health care and real estate leading gains. we had mostly positive quarterly earnings results. at the same time, we had more risk appetite as we saw that u.k. and the european union struck a deal. the dow, though, underperforming after ibm disappointed with results. we are now looking forward to more data coming out of asia. sophie: we have chinese third-quarter gdp along with japanese pmi numbers -- cdi numbers for september. taking a look at the board, you can see how asian futures are setting up, looking at a mixed start this friday with regional shares still on cou

the imf asia-pacific deputy director at the imf annual meeting in d.c.rkets. what are you watching? sophie: asian stocks are trading mixed with aussie shares for a day of losses. stocks are eking out gains in tokyo as well as seoul. the korean won is at a high despite dismal export data in the wake of more warnings over global growth slowing down at the imf weekend meetings. the cycle may have hit a bottom. some anticipate a catalyst for exports going forward. now i want to check on some assets on the offshore yuan. , this is thew you pboc governor, saying the rates are broadly stable. jgb's are falling across the curve with 10 year yields hovering above -14 basis points of the you j -- boj buying. halting haunting -- retreat from a five month high. boris johnson's brexit deal hanging in the balance. kathleen: let's get more on brexit in the first word news with selina wang. >> thank you. boris johnson will make a fresh attempt to deliver on his pledge to take britain out of the european union by october 31. the u.k. prime minister's backers now say he h

to weigh on the global economy ccording to the imf. >> imf says the world economy will grow 3% this.2% from their forecast in july. the 2020 estimate is lowered to .4% from 3.5%. >> to get to a position where we have more countries and a recession like environment is when global growth goes below 2.5%. we don't have that in our projection. >> the hong kong executive outlying solutions to structural problems in her address, interrupted by pro-democracy demonstrators. >> this was a chance by the hong kong government and carrie lam to stop these protests that have escalated of late and this was all about the economy, and particularly when it comes to housing, which some say is the source of discontent and why people hit the streets. she didn't mention the politics of what we have been talking about, no mention of reform are universal suffrage, so still a lot of questions about whether these measures of stimulus are enough to ease and rake down the political stalemate in the ity. >> china threatening unspecified countermeasures if the u.s. congress enacts legislation supporting hong kon

the imf put out numbers around 3%.re positive than ours, but mostly in the same ballpark. so we launched -- we basically lost more than 1% of the world's gdp in less than a year, and the reason is trade tensions. why? because the trade tensions affect the certainty and uncertainty is the worst enemy of growth, for a very simple reason. why do you invest? you invest to produce. you produce to sell. and if you don't know whether you can sell, or what tariffs, whether you can access a market, you don't invest. market this -- multiply this millions of times by people affected by uncertainty, who hold back investments, and then you have the drop in the growth of the world. shery: central banks are now easing again, to try to support growth. the imf this week warned of rising financial vulnerabilities. do you see any risks? >> i think that central bankers are heroes. the only problem is, we cannot expect them to be heroes again and again and again, because even the central banks run out of ammunition. right now, we have to c

. ♪ the imf cuts its outlook for the fourth straight time. sterling reaches a new high on high optimism about a new brexit deal. ♪ shery: breaking news out of south korea. the jobless rate ticked up to 3.4% in september. the estimate was to gain from 3.1%, so the unemployment rate higher than expected. we have seen weakness in the private sector, south korea very exposed to trade tensions and slowing global demand, although we have seen passage of that extra budget in august, which could provide support for labor markets, but so far september unemployment at three point 4%. australian markets just open. let's turn to sophie. sophie. sophie: sherri, shares in sydney are breaking ground, advancing fifth straight day, in tokyo the nikkei 225 open. it fresh 2019 high with valuations below the five-year average. for korean investors, aside from ok jobless rate, the be policy decision is on tap with a 25 point basis point rate cut expected, which could spur a rally in bonds. mccrory sees 10 year yields dropping as low as 100 basis points by the end

now the imf sounds more pleasant mistake.ppened in these two years is that we moved from a synchronised upswing, 75% of the world growing faster, do a synchronised slowdown, 90% of the world economy slowing. and when you look at the many reasons, these are fractures in the world economy that are holding growth the bark. and you have pretty pessimistic numbers on how the trade dispute between the world's how the trade dispute between the worlds to two largest economies are affecting world growth. we see by 2020, a loss of 0.8% of global gdp, this is the equivalent of $700 billion. and what is most significant is that it is not the direct impact of tariffs that are most harmful, most harmful is the loss of confidence. what is so clear is that everybody loses. we are expecting trade talks to resume, what advice do you have do offer to these huge two trading partners?” personally see criticality of recognising that different countries have different grievances around trade and that we have do take to sort candidly about these gri

we are here at the imf meetings.u know, the characterization of the fund, the global economy is precarious. the momentum is precarious. that has built up over the course of the last 18 months. why hasn't built up? the principal reason is global trade tensions, particularly tensions between the u.s. and china, u.s. and europe. as a consequence of that, you are seeing globally what we've seen in the u.k. how momentum is there in the global economy, are we now?lizing you take all these factors into account and make the rate decision at the appropriate time. >> we are having a conversation with mark carney, the governor of the bank of england. is there a stark division on how you would do with a no deal brexit? >> no. --so you would deal with it >> there is not a division in terms of the overall approach. target,the 2% inflation using the flexibility we have under our mandate to come to, i just the timeframe over which we would return inflation to target , likely from above, in the event of a no deal brexit. judgment abo

the imf and world bank held meetings in washington, d.c.inty viewed with a trade tensions still high, leaders of global finance have plenty to discuss. many of them sat down to share insights the bloomberg. >> the global economy is in a gradual, synchronized slow and it is important we do something about that. the risks have been strengthened and the uncertainty that comes from that -- brexit, geopolitical risks. living in a world of very little interest rates probably means there will be more risk-taking and possibly financial stability risks down the rope you'd there are plenty -- down the road. there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. >> are you hopeful about a u.s.-china trade deals that lasts? >> it is hard to know viewed there is always -- to know. there is always hope. i think the agreement on the key issues where both sides mega compromise, we need new trade practices enhanced and enforced so both sides can feel comfortable about how trade and investment will proceed. we hope that can be accomplished. >> what is the one thing yo

imf and the debt, right? patrick: absolutely.needs to tackle the imf agreement and renegotiate it in order to get the backing needed so that he can go to a crowded field and say i have imf support and ken renegotiate $50 billion in debt with private creditors. another factor is how fernandez is going to have a new relationship with president donald trump, because of course if you are going to get support for a new agreement or a renegotiated deal, you need u.s. backing as well. that's an added ingredient to the current situation. but the first thing to tackle was the -- is the imf agreement. he is talking more about the economic social pact, raising salaries and social security payments. right now his priorities seem to be more on the left-leaning populist side. in the wake of the election we saw the central bank limit the ability of people in argentina the purchase dollars. -- to purchase dollars. how effective do people think that kind of currency control will be in preserving the central bank's war chest? patrick: well, it's a

paul thompson, the director of the european market from the imf. we were talking about earlier that it is the 70th year of the chinese communist party. what started as peaceful demonstrations have deteriorated into some what of a violent riot you can see that police are hovering around there. earlier reports of water cannons and tear gas being deployed. our correspondents are reportin that we expect those demonstrations later in the day to turn ugly the demonstrators are wearing black today. a quick look at the u.s. futures. all three majors are seen in the green. that's it for our show, i'm joumanna bercetche and "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. >> it is 5:00 a.m. here, 5:00 p.m. in hong kong. massive demonstrations in beijing as china celebrates its 70th anniversary protesters are hitting the streets and clashing with police live reports straight ahead. call it the race to the bottom another central bank cutting interest rates again to record lows in corporate news. a story that sounds more like a novel than headline. a to

program argentina has with the imf.ing he is not to default [indiscernible] difficult to see how the plan would materialize. paul: if fernandez wins the election, and on the current vote count it looks like he is on call to do sore -- do so, is he heading for a showdown with the imf? says theythe imf has are willing to see what the economic policies will be at the negotiating table. but we know so far that they have not made any disbursements that thele, so given country's foreign service has been foreign steadily since the primaries, it will certainly be a priority for whoever takes the helm of the government to resolve the matter as soon as possible. a -- carolina keeping an eye on the election .esults in argentina fernandez is currently in the lead. president trump says the islamic state leader is dead after u.s. special forces raised northern syria. he was the highest ranking terrorist leader captured since osama bin laden. let's go over to jodi schneider for more. now that the leader is dead, the is trump saying ab

the eurozone in parol is a story the imf knows all too well.ons over policy within the central bank won't make her job any easier. greatest hits of the eurozone debt crisis 10 years on. simon french is here with us to reflect on how far we have come or not. we had a similar chart in the package showing the way greek spreads have tightened. a top of them of that even they have backed down. things look very different from the debt market perspective 10 years on. >> they do. it probably speaks to the idea that we had that neutralization by the back door, courtesy of the ecb. anna: whatever it takes. simon: absolutely. and that statement from mario draghi has aged really well, but we now stand on the cusp of what next. bond buying and quantitative easing buys you time, but that time is starting to run out lyrically. -- politically. therefore, developments on the fiscal side will determine whether this recovery of sorts gets a leg of momentum if the world economy slows. does this experiment last long-term? if you step back and look at the possibilit

they need imf but they do not like the imf. ian: they will not be happy with his government.ere on bling to extend the additional $5 billion to the former president m acri, it is not because they didn't like him -- she was doing everything the imf wanted. as a friend of mine put it, if you are the bank and you have a known arsonist that is about to take over the house, do you extend the payments? the answer is no. that is despite the fact that trump was pushing for money for these guys. ri was really liked by the people with influence and cash, but they know what is coming. this will be difficult. david: the ongoing drama that has been argentina. ian bremmer coming up in our second hour of balance of power. we will be talking about china and the u.s. china trade talks which president trump now says are actually ahead of schedule. how they see it from beijing's point of view. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. in california, another wildfire is threatening thousands of homes. this one is in los angeles not far from the getty center art

listen to the 12th managing director of the imf.g to be about trade peace, not trade war. everybody is a loser in a trade war. therefore, everybody would be a winner in trade peace. that losst clear that may be higher on some countries and lower on others, but everybody is impacted. tom: it was an extraordinary phrase. i really had not heard it before. i know, elinor, you have. trade peace. can you invest right now for the coming trade peace? i am slightly concerned about the vocabulary being used -- war and peace are very different things concerning economic growth. investing in areas that would be less effective where possible, more defensive industries. the one great phenomena of the with thebal growth trade agreements we have seen over the last couple of decades is that most companies, large companies, are very international and have been able to find growth in different communities and enabling a more dynamic middle to be created in some of the countries which had not known that in the past. so we will continue to look at the c

it mean withoes ongoing negotiations with the imf?f the key reasons macri lost the election, he lost support by going back to the imf, when argentinians did not want to see that. shamalia: that is true, and the leader of the program will likely change to a longer dated program, which will give them some liquidity relief. this program may be more focused on passing reforms and may give them more breathing room on the fiscal side, which will help them maintain the social. amanda: how quickly does anything have to happen from the markets point of view? shamalia: really quickly. the markets are disappointed today. everyone was expecting fernandes's victory in the first round and we were hoping to see announcements on the economic policy as well as cabinets. we have not seen that yet and it has not even been 24 hours, but that is how quickly the market wants to see more announcements. amanda: great to have your thoughts, sean miller con. thank you. -- shamalia khan. wildfires raging across california from los angeles to wine country. why h

tom: christine lagarde had combinerespect for the at the imf.draghi and everyone else. are we going to see a more academic construct at the ecb as they tackled the theory of these rate dynamics at the zero bound? i would not say more. there has always been an element of really looking at this and -- in majorly academic terms. there is strong disagreements athin the governing council the ecb, but i don't think that is going to be a major change from the draghi era in the lagarde era. guy: let's wrap it up. two quick questions. what is he going to do next? i hear rumors of the italian presidency and is germany going to miss him? alessandro: in italy, when there are elections in a number of years, he could be a leading candidate if he wants. guy: is germany going to miss him? alessandro: probably not, but i am not sure they will prefer the next option that will come to them. guy: on that note, we will wrap things that. our thanks to the authors of l'artefice.: banksl see how european are faring in this negative rate environment we currently have. t

, but in a difficult situation, because he has to have a strong and difficult conversation with the imf. up has been critical of venezuela but is trying to show some distance. you have a relatively pragmatic individual here, but he will be elected on a platform of trying ,o boost economic growth favoring voters and consumers instead of investors and the imf. he will still have to deal with the fact that his running mate is former president kirchner, who has stronger ideas about foreign policy in the economy. that will be a difficult relationship to manage. amanda: thank you for your time, daniel kerner. french president emmanuel macron is blocking the eu's decision to delay brexit for three months. what that means for the brexit timeline. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm amanda lang in new york. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. boris johnson has called for an election to be held december 12. he says it is the only way to end the brexit nightmare. there are two ways for johnson to get his early election. a simple motion will be two thirds of house of commons members.

this new program by the imf would be an anchor for investors to look at the country over the next fewnvestment opportunity. if he cannot do that, i do not see the growth model. romaine: lori, i want to bring you in here. bill mentions the social unrest we see in argentina, and this reflects we see across latin america in weeks and weeks and months and months good when you look at e.m., in particular that part of the world, is it safe, i guess, to go back and? we have heard a lot of people and they specifically single out south american countries. lori: these countries have been incredibly volatile, and the political process is just one step in the process, as we have heard. there is going to be policy. there is a lot more there. we would be quite cautious on the region. alix: ubs was taking the opposite view when it came to the equity markets, saying while investors need to monitor developments, we continue to monitor emerging markets and nations, addressing economic and social pressures. you do stick with that, like, when you are looking at emerging markets, how do you factor that in

very interesting life from the imf in washington.ave arrived at the border of america but are having to wait in mexico as their applications are considered. regulators have warned that the nhs in england is facing increasing demand, staff shortages, and patients with learning disabilities stuck in unsuitable hospitals. the care quality commission also warned abot accident and emergency departments. alison holt reports. this is the house that adele green hopes will one day be home to her 20—year—old son eddie, but shortage of support locally means after seven years he's still in a specialist mental health hospital nearly 200 miles from home. eddie has learning disabilities and other complex problems. when he had a crisis, he ended up in a series of secure hospitals. today's report warns of deteriorating quality, a lack of skilled staff in such places, familiar concerns for eddie's family. we... we knew of a time when he was locked away in a seclusion room for about four months, fed through a hatch, not given the medication because the

sees asiathe imf growing 5.1%, another downgrade, down 0.3% versus the april forecast. their forecast for the region, not a big surprise given we got global cuts a few weeks ago in china and the rest of the world, but the imf cutting their forecasts for asia growth 2019 and 2020. we have a guest on that coming up as well. for plenty more, you can go to the terminal, all terminal and bloomberg subscribers, at live go. also the events, coming up later this week and events you may have missed earlier. rishaad: we will be having him on the program in about half an hour, as we go through the changes in the growth forecasts. in the the scene indonesian capital, joko widodo';s cabinet for his second term as president. we have lots of people, including his challenger from before, who has been appointed. that's the new cabinet, having their family portrait done, it's called in the business. india danger lurking as far as shadow banking, discussing the credit crisis and why gauges show problems there are far from over. that story coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: a look at

i don't think the imf was designed.y badly what happened was not a shot.t was a shot is after the primaries people started to fear . >> existing investors, there will be a debt restructure. most -- what do you think he can work out? to him is more palatable is more palatable to investors. you can choose whatever depending on expression, but indian they need some -- in the end, they need some debt relief. it doesn't really help that it is just a light restructuring. you have to do it again. where allbe stakeholders commit in a stakeholders commit in a credible way to a certain path and you work out what type of debt relief they need. i'm not so sure and eventual reduction will be enough. >> it is going to be huge. aromas from's -- of goldman sachs -- romas from goldman sachs. we have some breaking news? moody's already happen to be .ne rating york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the unrest from chilly spilling into the streets, .raffic in a standstill of latinh us, head america research over at goldman sachs. we have seen the protests in chile and some of the day-

we discussed the imf next.s is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance" i am francine lacqua. let us focus on the slowdown in the global economy. the imf managing director has hinted they will cut projections for global gdp. we are back with pau morilla giner from london and capital group and brunello rosa from rosa roubini. you can have a global slowdown but as long as monetary policy is still there to keep thanks ok, that should be fine but are they running out of firepower? are they doing more harm than good? pau: they have distorted prices. they have created a precedent that makes us have to rely structurally on --. i don't see how this is a repeat of 2010 and 2012 and even 2016 and the world decelerated authorities were able to reactivate the economy. of morecy in absence extraordinary measures, more extraordinary than qe, you could give money straight to the consumers. i think you are pulling on a string. you have to depend on governments deciding to activate fiscal stimulus and of course t

this is my high point of the imf.tive years and brings substantial academic ability, jacob frenkel, former governor of the bank of israel and --ising jp mayer again chase j.p. morgan chase international. here inappy to have you some shocking uncertain times. sends, the imfl that you have been -- the multilateral sense, the imf that you have been apart, is it gone? jacob: i hope not. what we see now is ace this is -- a system in which there is great risk everywhere, the risk between the united states and the federal reserve, the risk between the monetary authority and the fiscal authority, a risk within the ecb, risk between china and the u.s., a risk, a risk. all of this is completely inconsistent with a successful, integrated world that the global organization wanted to establish. or 1939ken back to 1913 or sometime we did not see it coming. are they solvable risks or is something bigger coming we cannot synthesize? jacob: the first thing, when you say we did not see it coming, the benefit of looking back into histor

romaine: so we heard from the new imf chief, and she gave a speech. talked a lot, particularly in an interview, about standing by the day of multilateral, as you would expect the imf to do, also talking about fiscal stimulus around the world and europe and potentially in the u.s., and i am just wondering, do you believe the structure we have with the multilateral institutions, are they going to be effective in sort of helping the economy globally through? well, multilateral institutions, at the end of the day, are on top of the nation states. it is really the nation states and their ability to cooperate in a multilateral way, which will really drive things. they really cannot do things from the top down. and one of the multilateral institutions is, of course, the wto. we talk about the meetings next week with the world bank and the imf, but the wto is practically invisible at these meetings, so i think we have to press the reset button and bring them into this discussion. again, without that sort of underlying support from the nation states, they are

if anything, i think we can have another round of revisions in imf forecasts. we will have europe in recession next year. >> you think so, 2020? -- mohamed: absolutely. leaders and royalty from around the world will gather at the imperial palace in tokyo to mark the instrument -- emperor.ent of the around 80 countries will be at the event. he will be the 126 emperor. than 100 20ore countries, i am su keenan, this is bloomberg. though: it does look as justin trudeau is set to retain power in what has been a close election. he may lose his parliamentary onority, forcing him to lean a party to survive. >> josh is joining us out of there with the latest. what are you hearing? an exciting time of the night here. the real stuff is starting to flow. it looks like trudeau will lose the majority. now, if you excuse me, he is at 121. his nearest rival is 89. if that gap maintains, he will have a pretty comfortable margin. it won't be a nice edge in the majority parliament. we are seeing early results. things could change. the left-leaning democratic party is really not p

the imf meetings are going on.arry summers spoke at the petersons to shoot -- at the peterson institute last night. is front anduality center and will come up at all the meetings. i am speaking to larry myself later this morning. we will see where people cross both sides of the aisle, but also across the world, are really coming out on u.s. politics coming into the next election, but also how central banks and other policymakers will address the global growth slowdown around the world. alix: thank you so much. make sure to stay with bloomberg for complete coverage of the imf world bank meetings. pierre hear from moscovici, mark carney, and many more, so do not miss that. something else i'm watching here, not long from now, two nasa astronauts aboard the international space station will make history. they will conduct the first all-female spacewalk ever. they are going to replace a broken component in a critical battery charger. nasa originally planned the spacewalk for a last spring, but was canceled because there

this is something that came up last week during the imf meetings.wall street journal" had a great line. everybody is calling for fiscal support and saying that's what's next come about what we are missing is that there isn't going to be any. i want a pink pony, but nobody's getting any pink ponies. [laughter] michael: germany doesn't want to do fiscal stimulus, and they have laws that prevent them from doing too much. no other country really has the fiscal space to spend a lot of money to boost the whole euro zone. alix: to that point, you were mentioning earlier on break sweden committing to a rate hike in december. the appetite for negative rates is eroding. jens: i think we sort of learned that the cost associated with negative rates are significant. the problems in the banking system are real. it is on the ecb to come out and say we have changed our minds, but i think the speed at which they move after the september meeting, very reluctantly another 10 basis points, that this is a tool they have really not actually sure whether it is going to be

this was issued by the imf steering panel during which they made a fifth straight cut, for directing the weakest expansion since 2009. china's top trade negotiators said they are making progress. both sides are trying to make a national deal. financial car -- conference that potential progress had been made. [no audio] staying balanced since the --weakened.end u.s. to name the china currency manipulators. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and at tictoc on twitter, in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen, this is bloomberg. >> still ahead, brighter is can japantter, but display keep up with the surge in a lead -- oled? protestsantigovernment flare up around the world. we will bring you the latest from hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> demonstrators in hong kong set fire to shops and parts of real stations sunday in a 20th straight weekend of protests and organizers estimated at least 350,000 people took part in an earlier rally. >> it escalated quite quickly. ground where a lot of things took place over the weekend. what is happening no

this suggestion that, well, apparently the imf boss jumping for joy on well, apparently the imf boss forjoy on news of the deal. you know, ithink jumping forjoy on news of the deal. you know, i think no matter where you come from on this issue, i think that all of us, there was a tiny sigh of relief, even if we are jaded and cynical. that there has been progress. we feel like, it has been almost a quagmire of issues for the past three years and the last ten days, this issue has accelerated so much, to the point where we are about to have this huge vote in parliament. however, ido about to have this huge vote in parliament. however, i do know that with businesses, we are waiting for the vote, not going to be moving on any decision in regards to what to do with our resources and future investment because we have been here before, where the eu has approved and now we have to bring it home and approve it or disprove it here. coming from the business world, do you recognise this sort of figure that the guardian runs with, saying that the guardian runs with, saying that if the brexit deal

the imf will continue on the fiscal side.ts this week, do you think there's greater on's now that they will actually do something to add more stimulus or are they going to sit back and wait and see how this plays out? towardsthe asymmetry is more stimulus. when i look back at the history of boj policy, we started with qe, and then we had qe with buying substantially of government assets as well as etf's, and then we had qe with yield curve control, and one of the things that is increasingly clear is that with the continuation of an existing monetary policy, it actually becomes less effective. a lot of this is through signaling. on like the u.s., where we have actually been able to step somewhat in terms of the purchases, we really do not see step having any ability to back on these types of asset purchases from the government side. we actually expect japan to maybe even come up with a new down this go farther path of unconventional monetary policy. case in point, the boj has been very adamant about the fact that there's actua

coming up, our conversation with all optional's at the imf meeting.s is bloomberg. ♪ >> boris johnson tries for a new vote on this brexit deal. could it be blocked? >> a sterling outcome. the pound hits 1.30 as optimism builds over a brexit deal. and holding steady. beijing's top trade negotiator says progress has been made on a partial u.s. trade deal, but mike pence is set to deliver a major speech on china policy this week. good morning, everyone. building in the markets over a brexit deal. at least taking no deal off the table. the pound touching 1.30 on the dollar. we will have a look at treasuries. first, let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news in new york city. >> we begin first word with brexit. the u.k. is celebrating its no deal brexit plan. the government activating operation yellow hammer. agencies taking action to offset the worst case outcome. a u.k. official said hundreds of civil servants would be moved to work on this plan. protesters have unleashed another wave of destruction on hong kong. arsonists used petrol bombs to s

the imf managing director will be joining us live from the world bank imf meetings, his take on the latestegotiations over brexit. we will talk about the state of the global economy as well. this is what the pound is looking like right now, indicating a little bit of traction again. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: and from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's catch up with first word news. >> thanks, guy. there's a deal on brexit, but the drama is far from over. negotiators have reached an agreement that could pave the way for the u.k. to leave the european union. summit addresses it today. the northern ireland democratic unionist party says it cannot support the deal, making it tougher for boris johnson to put it through parliament. the u.s. ambassador to the european union is testifying behind closed doors today. fort in some link is expected to tell house lawmakers today that he was merely repeating trump reassurances when he told another envoy said there was no print -- no quid pro quo in the dealing [indi

you are headed to the imf meetings in d.c..lobal growth forecast some he time since last year. is that going to top the agenda this time? areleen: the meetings getting underway now. the updated economic outlook for the international , which the new head of the imf told us last week is likely to be downgraded again will be released. it will be the fourth downgrade since october, as you implied. my -- ing to look into my interview at asia. libraryo the bloomberg with me, or let me give you a second here to get this chart that i want to take a look at now. that, china, japan, singapore and south korea, every forle line, their pmi manufacturing is below 50. this is how hard the trade war has been hitting and i will speak with some of the key asian economists at the imf to find out there view broadly for the region and for some of the individual countries that have been hit by the trade war. heidi: who will you be sitting down and speaking with? bankeen: the head of the for international settlement. they meet with central bank gover

we had the imf yesterday down globally -- downgrading global growth.ong direction. i think it is positive, but we need to take this with a pinch of salt that this was really a measure pushed into. manus: and you are right. 1.9%uro area, one .1% from in 2019. in 2019, one1.9% of the worst in years. a pretty bad economic scenario for europe. where is the biggest value in that scenario if, as you say, they have been pushed into physical or to reduce the what about in terms of how you allocate capital? marcus: we need to look at companies where you can be sure of the earnings, and what we have seen over the last couple of quarters is there is convergence between the high quality growth names, which are richly valued, and the cheaper cyclicals, were actually the end markets appear to be in many places deteriorating rather than improving. a company that can be good in economic environments, we have been pairing up for policy growth and opportunistically looking for various areas of the market where the underlying trends are improving. the one area that might

kathleen: importantly, she also said with the imf world bank meeting convenes next week and the imf issuests latest world economic outlook, that they are going to downgrade their forecast for 2019 and 2020 growth again. it will be the fourth time this october. paul: global economics and policy editor kathleen hays, thank you for joining us. we have a lot more on the fed and jay powell coming up. the former fed official and no cofounder and partner of cornerstone macro joins us. shery: shane tells us why innovation, real estate and health are top of her investment list. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: u.s. stocks fell on concerns tensions with china are escalating just days before high-level trade talks resume. the s&p 500 tumbled and chinese companies that trade in new york fell to the lowest since mid-august. joining us now is cls investment senior portfolio manager. thank you for being here. we see the pressure from china on different fronts against beijing. one of them could be possible restrictions on portfolio flows. what could scrutinize index providers inputting chinese firms on their l

we have imf. the picture is gloomy. there is lower to go.here is some premium in here, given the geopolitical tensions. probably not enough, some would say. saudi arabia came to show everybody that the world is well supplied with oil. that in and of itself is a reason to be short right now. guy: bill joining us out of chicago. vonnie: time for your latest bloomberg business flash. a look at some of the news right now. apple is seeing higher iphone demands than expected. the reason is falling prices. apple missed holiday sales targets last year. they have offered more end deals. trade bloomberg has learned that volkswagen is considering a sale for its lamborghini supercar units. ceos long-termhe plan for the world's largest automaker. resources forng audi and porsche units. millions of californians have their power turned off for a few days last week. be --s trying to can prevent them from starting fires. we count down to the european close. stocks mixed right now in the u.s.. bond markets closed for columbus day. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> deal