we have rebounded, but now comes this warning from the imf.— warning from the imf. warning from the imf. we are likely to see some downgrades of- to see some downgrades of our october projections for global growth. october pro'ections for global urowth. , , ., , growth. scientists who first identified — growth. scientists who first identified it — growth. scientists who first identified it decided... - growth. scientists who first identified it decided... it i growth. scientists who first identified it decided... it is| growth. scientists who first - identified it decided. .. it is kind identified it decided... it is kind of like a identified it decided. .. it is kind of like a bank— identified it decided... it is kind of like a bank robber _ identified it decided... it is kind of like a bank robber who - identified it decided... it is kind of like a bank robber who have l identified it decided... it is kind i of like a bank robber who have the fbi picture — of like a bank robber who have the fbi picture of, maybe they have died out their_ fbi picture of, maybe they

host: i have imf numbers. we're talking about global growth. 5% next year. you have talked about money being pumped into the system. you can't keep doing that. >> reducing the bonds that's being in the market. it's been something like $120 billion. every month, november. that may change a little bit. what we have seen his monetary support taking place right now. they are looking again at not increasing interest rates. we are not talking about -- being -- not getting into that depression. monetary and fiscal authorities seem to be quite prepared an active necessary. host: do you want to jump in? >> if i may add, coordination as become eloquently. you have the mutual cooperativeness that can kick in. obviously, to sustain calmness this a must for countries like japan and demographics. senior citizens, a majority of -- the rise of interest rates would be aired armageddon scenario. the situation where we are talking about a lot of spending. host: you are all at home, a living room. i wonder if i can get from each of you. just to get a view from your part of the

they have rebounded, but now comes this warning from the imf. downgrades of our october projections for global growth. scientists who first identified it decided... it is kind of like a bank robber who have the fbi has a picture of, maybe they grew out a moustache, died their hair, they're always wearing sunglasses and a beard, it will be a bit harder for your immune system to recognise. because of changes to the virus�* spike protein, which is the part of the virus that vaccines train our immune response to defend us from, plus the fact that... it is spreading like wildfire around the world. with its spread said to be unwittingly helped by, amongst others, foreign diplomats who entered botswana on the second week of november, crowds at the pop band steps�* concert two weeks later and a renewable energy company's christmas party at this restaurant in norway last week. but... again, no reason to panic. because scientists say the good news is how quickly omicron was declared a variant of concern after it was discovered. according to the medicaljou

as you say, the imf earlier put it around at 72. economists we have talked to put it in the 70-75 range. i would say that's the kind of rice they are expecting to see next year. -- price they are expecting to see next year. they are expecting to average 12.7 million barrels per day. this is sustained throughout 2022. this will be one of the highest production levels the country has ever had, and that all helps to bolster this reserves position and surplus. manus: in terms of the bond issuance, i was quite taken by the fact that obviously he will come back to the market, he wants to do it at the right price. but green bonds, obviously we have a net zero target out from saudi arabia and a number of other major gcc countries coming on board. how important are green bonds and issuance of green bonds to saudi arabia? matthew: i think one of the things the government is very keen on trying to do now is change the narrative around itself. it doesn't want to be seen as a bad actor in the global environment or energy transition going on as w

the imf is forecasting 5% growth in 2022 after 6.8% increase this year and it says inflation will peak in the spring. in china property stocks sank to a five-year low. shares of the group and its property service unit fell by the most ever today. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: i will pick it up. we will get to china in just a second but i wanted to hit on the nasdaq 100, down 2% now. this could be the seventh straight fall of more than 1% for the nasdaq 100. the biggest decliner czar apple, they try to test that three chile dollar market cap, but also nvidia and microsoft getting hit, the biggest fall since september. yields higher. will you sell some of the winners? the rollover, you look at the seven day chart, big rollover in the last couple of days. guy: it does seem as if the market has been spooked by this ppi number. the number coming on the first day of the fed meeting, it is a very hot number. it points to embedded inflation w

rishaad: looking at this imf program, where are you with that?e company mean itself of body? itself off the body? >> history was one of -- a large part was policy response was to be delayed. with a fixed exchange system, you would not be able to adjust. with a market-based system, since may, the exchange rate has been adjusted. with these measures, we are confident that unlike in the past, this growth of 5% is going to be stable. yvonne: there has been some opposition, governor, that the imf conditioned you increase central-bank autonomy. how important is that and how does that improve the functioning for the central bank? rishaad: the bill has not been -- >> the bill has not been presented to parliament yet. debate will start. i think they would want the parliament to only pass a bill that is good. to clarify the objectives of the central bank. and to give it -- and to hold it accountable to parliament. rishaad: you have also seen a record funding take place in the fintech and other tech spaces or just startups in pakistan. how is that at the mo

we must break with the imf, refused to pay the debt, and allocate those thousands of minds of dollars to solve the social any, problems that exist in our country. amy: voters in new caledonia overwhelmingly rejected becoming independent from france. but sunday's referendum, the third such over the past three years, was boycotted by pro-independence groups who pushed to postpone the vote and it's unclear whether they will accept the results. turnout was just over 40%. caledonia's current president, louis mapou, is pro-independence and said the pacific territory would continue to pursue the path of emancipation. the island territory was colonized by france in 1853. a world bank-administered trust fund says it will transfer $280 million to the world food program and unicef in afghanistan, in an effort to ease a looming humanitarian catastrophe. the funds for food security and health care are a fraction of what afghanistan lost after the taliban seized power in august and the united states and other donors cut off financial aid. the united nations warns nearly 23 million people in afghani

there were targets set earlier this year, some stimulated by the imf and other major institutions, set targets for having 10% vaccinated by the end of september, 40% of the world's population by the end of the calendar year and 70% by next september. the reality is that for many, many countries those targets are simple he not going to be reached. they are unrealistic. we underestimated the power of nationalism and hoarding and the degree to which the marketplace for vaccines would be and transparent -- on transparent ro which simply the muscle and power of the most powerful and most prosperous countries would dominate. and so there's been some really hard lessons. and this -- and of course as we talked a moment ago, we underestimated the gaps in limited accessibility. it's a very complicated, difficult situation. and the risk, of course, is that we will transition in the course of 2022 into very geographically differentiated world in which we have large populations and low and middle income countries where there is uncontrolled transmission and uncontrolled replication. if we have coun

on tuesday the imf warned the bank of england to avoid "inaction bias" over raising interest rates toationary pressure. and later this morning we'll get the latest consumer price index measure of uk monthly inflation for november. so what can we expect and will it put more pressure on the bank of england to act and raise interest rates on thursday? joining me now is ruth gregory, senior uk economist, capital economics. many thanks for joining many thanks forjoining me this morning. what do you expect inflation to hit this month, where would you put your money? and what would you say are the main pressures pushing it up at the moment? i main pressures pushing it up at the moment?— the moment? i suspect we are auoin to the moment? i suspect we are going to see — the moment? i suspect we are going to see inflation - the moment? i suspect we are going to see inflation climb - going to see inflation climb all the way to 5% in the figures for november, released this morning. that is a really big increase that we think is on the cards. if we are right to put that into context, that would be

following that, the imf managing director will be giving a press conference at the euro group meeting. does she give any indication about the potential growth indications of omicron? jonathan: let's get straight to brian levitt, level market strategist at invesco. let's talk about the bond market. labor market look stronger, federal reserve ready to go faster, and 10 year yield at 1.39. can you make sense of all of this for us? brian: it is a little bit of the opposite of the taper tantrum we saw in 2013, and in this rate -- in this, rates are going lower. we are dealing with a bloomberg economy and a variety of challenges. you talked about the omicron variant. you also talked about a fed looking to potentially raise rates while we are still dealing with the uncertainty of the pandemic. it had been a long time since we had seen this kind of volatility. you are getting a bit of a flight to quality amid pretty big concerns that exist in the bond market. ultimately, i think we will find our way through this challenging period in rates will settle that a more reasonable level, but we are

the imf agreeing that inflation will rise. they might have to tighten in australia earlier than what has been priced in. we go from tightening to easing. david: and how much more do we get of the easing out of the pboc? after the rrr cut, december 15 believe is when that takes effect, do we get an lpr cut? ing says this is where it stops for now. we have the two meetings in march and then we might see something a little more. as it stands, it is a policy signal more than being able to shift this massive ship around. yvonne: let's get more on the rrr cut. messages this morning about easing as property hits the downslope. what can we expect next? we have our correspondence. david, what can we see from the pboc? david: people are talking about the pboc easing, but i think the signal is already there. i want to say that we cannot expect aggressive easing from the pboc. the central bank has been cautious the past several quarters, as we have seen. we expect more easing from the pboc in the next year, including a rate cut. but again

i think a third was to replace gold with the creation of international money from the imf and people felt you know what if we are short of goal buts. something else and have the system that is backed by something solid. to private markets weren't buying it. but i'd like to come to your point about the future of the dollar and let me just put it this way. anybody who thinks they really no, knows nothing but a few had said to any of those guys around the table we can remove gold entirely in the dollar will get even stronger and it will stay that way decade after decade i don't think they would have believed it. the question is why did that happen? to me looking back it's not such a mystery. there really wasn't an alternative. no other country grew so big and so powerful that you would want to use their currency and know what other country wanted their currency to be so ubiquitous. everybody had been using the dollar and the network continued. second is actually the world have an a lot more confidence in u.s. policy and u.s. institutions than it did most other countries and they really

the imf treaty recently, the trump administration they want away from it and that was a mistake, in my view. it's not good not to have that in place. so, i think that a big conversation about new european security issues, and maybe even new norms, probably treaties -- but a big conversation, but it has got to be with ukrainians in the room, not the ukrainians being the subject of the negotiations. and that i am not sure vladimir putin will agree to. david: a super helpful answer. that's as good a catch you can get on the big problems from two of the biggest -- two of the smartest people i know, ambassador michael mccaul and chris krebs. thank you so much for joining us. mike: thank you for having us. david: please check out all the program we have coming in the future. you can go to washington postlive.com, register for programs that interest you. th

the imf treaty recently, the trump administration they want away from, that was a mistake, in my view. it's not good not to have that in place. the treaty is more or less moribund. so, i think that a big conversation about new european security issues, and maybe even new norms, and probably treaties are a big conversation, but it has got to be with ukrainians in the room, not the ukrainians be the subject of those negotiations. and that i am not sure vladimir putin will agree to. david: a super helpful answer. folks, that is as good as you can get on that from two of the smartest people i know, ambassador michael mccaul and -- michael mcfall and chris krebs. thank you so much for joining us for this discussion of democracy. >> thank you. david: please check out all the program we have coming in the future. go to washingtonpostlive.com, register for programs that interest you. thank you for joining us for this special discussion. we will see you soon. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2021] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsibl

we have a good idea what is happening online and how to calculate that as we have partnered with the imfriends at harvard and a forthcoming paper. where we look at that shift to digital and how permanent it is in different sectors. that is critical. lisa: as we look at 2021, it has been supported in the united states by a strong consumer with the huge amount of cash in their back pocket and they are looking to spend it on durable goods and other items they can buy in the store. this is been the big question into 2022. how much did they start to pare back their purchases, especially given the inflationary outlook? do you have any insight as to whether you are seeing anything that? bricklin: as an economy gets richer, people tend to spend more on services. this is been something we have seen for the last 27 years where economies have spent more money on services, less money on goods. what we have done is look at the measurement of goods versus services, we have seen that 27 year trend unwind and start to see is people are locked in their homes more of the spending shifting to goods. now as

the americans than any quantitative easing, with no more relief or special drawing rights from the imfoeconomic condition for all emerging markets is going to be much more challenging and turkey is probably among the least capable of major emerging markets to actually whether that. erdogan's approval ratings are the worst of his entire presidency and that has further call. tom: eurasia group president ian bremmer on all things turkey in russia. coming up, almost a year since the u.k. technically severed ties with the eu. we look at the impact on finance and the city of london of brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. 52 minutes into the european trading day. positive handover from wall street. positive handover from asia gains. let's focus in on all things u.k. recap what has been happening over the last 12 months. it has been a year almost since the u.k. technically severed ties with the eu. we are looking at the impact on finance and the city of london. joining me now is bloomberg's u.k. economy reporter. what has the impact event on the city of london finance

the imf warns that the british economy is heading for a slowdown early next year because of tighter restrictionslimiting the spread of the omicron variant. 5% growth was forecast in 2022 after an eight point -- after an 8% increase this year. billionaire elon musk -- uses that the power spacecraft. his rocket company is launching a type of technology that is still in early ages of development. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪ >> the fed thinks that neutral is 2.5. i think they will have to go beyond neutral in this cycle, given how far they have let inflation run already. my thought is we are going to be somewhere in the three to three and a half range. lisa: the big debate on wall street, is the fed policy moving too quickly or too slowly and frankly, people cannot agree right now. that was stephen stanley, saying they need to come out more frequently -- more quickly. right now, it is amazing to see how people are looking past co

the imf is forecasting 5% growth in 2022 after 6.8 percent increase this year.on will peak in the spring. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 27 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> you are always happier to buy a dip if all-time highs and growth in the u.s. is incredibly strong. the more the mix of real yields and growth is deteriorating the more difficult it gets to buy a dip. jonathan: a more complex 2022, goldman sachs, the managing director. the nasdaq 100 down 77. the bond market yields are higher by couple of basis points. in the commodity market basically unchanged at 7126. looking at crude, good morning. >> we are seeing $71 a barrel for wti. it is the time spread that i want to keep an eye on because it is the real-time impact of the omicron variant. for brent crude on a one month to three months spread it shows you that the near-term premium for getting a barrel of oil is dropping and a lot of it has to do with worsening demand. a lot of it is tied to the omicron var

i think the imf has been behind the curve on this, not putting any conditionality.made a lot of sense early on, but as time has gone on they have not dialed back. very similar to the fed. lisa: there was an implication in your comments earlier about how jay powell, had he been more honest in his assessment six months ago about how he saw the economic picture he would not get renominated. what does that say in terms of how political the federal reserve is and how much market participants can trust the messaging they are putting out? ken: there is always pressure on the fed to the reappointment of the chair. that is nothing new. donald trump was pressuring janet yellen, she resisted. it is a reflection of our society, what they live in. it is hard. biden has a lot of appointments. their indirect pressures they can put on. we have seen a period were a lot of academics have said we should have fiscal dominance. federal reserve policy should not do that much. fiscal policy should take over. that is a central theme -- fiscal policy is very political. it should look at lon

i go back to the 60 minutes interview that madame lagarde did at the imf from her manse, and you wonder is going to be for the lagarde household. lisa: how much does this allow them to remain on hold when it is such a serious pressure? they can't really do anything about gas prices. can you imagine madame lagarde pumping gas? tom: no, i can't see her pumping gas. she's got people that can help her do that. kriti gupta is here to save the day for us. she is looking at oil towards $100 a barrel. kriti: it wasn't too long ago that everyone was saying the price tag was a total given. we will get there as the global economy recovers from that 2020 halt. now you're starting to see a lot of pressure on oil, back to the low 70's for brent crude, even lower for wti. goldman saying that $100 oil call is not gone yet. we can actually see it in 2023. my chart of the day evaluates that call and really prices brent crude in 23 dollars -- in 2023 dollars. what it shows is that we were not that far from that $100 oil call, if you look at the dollar in that inflation-adjusted term. we were hitting $92 o

i think a third was to try to replace gold with what a creation of international money from the imf which they called special drawing rights. and people felt, you know what? if we're short of gold, let's create something else and have a fixed system that was backed by something solid. they did create special drawing rights but in the end, the markets, the private markets, they weren't buying it. so we went to floating rates. but i'd like to come to your point now about the future of the dollar, and let me just put it this way, that anybody that thinks they really know knows nothing. but it is -- if you had said to any of those guys around the table, we can remove golden tirely and the dollar will get even stronger and it will stay that way for decade after decade, i don't think they would have believed it, and the question is why did that happen. to me, looking back, it's not such a mystery. there really was president an alternative. no other country grew so big and so powerful that you would want to use their currency, and no other country wanted their currency to be so ubiquitous. so th

in may of this year the imf released a proposal that calculated vaccinating the world by 2022 would cost $50 billion but a failure to do so could cost the world by 2025 $9 trillion. put another way, an investment of 0.06% of global gdp could have a 180-fold return on that investment. covid and public health are not the only areas we see a self-destructive nationalism at work these days. the hot economic topic is inflation and what is causing it. the biden administration's covid relief spending is often blamed for triggering it and it has almost certainly played some role. strikingly though we see rising inflation almost everywhere, including in countries that did not spend freely after the pandemic. and what could explain this global inflation? protectionist policies like trump's trade war with biden and biden's buy american. the former secretary wrote tariff reduction is the most supply-side policy the administration can undertake to combat inflation. for the last three decades countries have been aggressively sourcing goods from across the world because they are cheaper. once they bega

company's own reputation but second, it is harming the entire global economy because many studies from the imf the oecd, international chamber of commerce, has said failed to vaccinate the world equally is costing the globe trillions of dollars and economic damage. we see the result of that all around us. entire economies in europe shutting down because of the new variant, factories in malaysia and vietnam closing, supply chains are snarled. moderna's failure to do more to promote vaccine equity is harming its own reputation but also harming the global economy and interest of corporate investors at large. so we think it is incumbent on moderna. to do more. amy: the eight top pfizer, serna shareholders made over $10 million in their stock holdings skyrocketed after the discovery of omicron? >> it is ankly obscene. oxfam did research and we calculated the three mrna vaccine producers -- moderna, pfizer, and biontech -- are earninmore than $1000 in profit every single second. so the pandemic is doing incredibly well for these companies. these companies are profiting directly off the pandemic. new

making structural investment in providing technical assistance and guidance through the world bank, imfhers so they are in a position to make the pot bigger, even if they can get back on the transitional democratic path they can -- they were on, they have their work cut out for them. that's the kind of work i'm drawn to and one reason we are emphasizing the private sector peace and the ability to leverage public dollars to secure more in the way of private money. climate change is a great example. there is what the public sector will do and the hundred billion dollar finance target that has been announced, but any single country, big emitters like india or south africa, you are talking about trillion dollar needs over time and so it has been encouraging to see the private sector get more drawn to the renewables and clean energy space, but there's less private sector interest so far in the kind of work i was mentioning that we are investing in. lastly, the part you spend a lot of time thinking about, i think what you were getting at, when you provide that emergency assistance, how to do

is standing by with our next special guest, from johns hopkins university, previously served as the imf'sst deputy director. kathleen: i want to establish all your bona fides, as they say. are you surprised that three months ago, half of the members of the fomc did not even see one rate hikes in 2022, and now i believe it is about 12 who see at least three? was this a more aggressive signal than you expected? >> not at all. this is exactly what i expected. i think this is what the market expected. the fed does not look to surprise. they are not trying to be preemptive. they are trying to give the market a position that is consistent with what they have been claiming they wanted to do. the change from what it was before reflects a couple of things. first, they had promulgated a new framework that virtually promised that they were going to be late to the party, and they kept that promise. secondly, that framework had focused a lot on explaining what they were not going to do. they were not going to lift off from zero until this happened, that happened. now we are going to move into a more i

weeks ago, the imf released a report showing some of the numbers and underscoring that if we want toet to a net zero emissions world, we may not have enough supply of the lithium and cobalt that many other minerals for what we want to be. that is physical material science problem. isn't going away, it's going to become more of an issue going forward as we see a focus on ways to reduce carbon footprint which is why something like natural gas has become so popular. that is a much easier way to switch from coal and cut your co2 production in half rather than going from gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles. that is a much more difficult jump to make. >> one said policy diversions -- signaling stronger than a week ago. how deeply that? >> i think there's a couple of things. first is, they are still being relatively accommodative. you look at some of the bond rates right now, high-yield or triple see lower, triple see and lower, the effective yield is barely into real return rates right now. that is probably an area that is quite risky. we could see the bond prices fall and the yield ris

and the next hour, not just the market open will we will talk to a former economists of the pboc and imfo china's macro outlook, how that downturn could affect policy moves in the new year. we'll also be hearing from a portfolio manager who says that chinese stocks are undervalued by as much as 40%. we'll speak to our guest, a portfolio advisor getting his gauge of opportunities in this very -- property sector that continues to see consolidation. we are just a few minutes away now from the start of trading in seoul and tokyo. this is bloomberg. [please stand by] ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibiliti

there were targets set earlier this year, some stimulated by the imf and other major institutions, set having 10% vaccinated by the end of september, 40% of the world's population by the end of the calendar year and 70% by next september. the reality is that for many, many countries those targets are simple he not going to be reached. they are unrealistic. we underestimated the power of nationalism and hoarding and the degree to which the marketplace for vaccines would be and transparent -- on transparent ro which simply the muscle and power of the most powerful and most prosperous countries would dominate. and so there's been some really hard lessons. and this -- and of course as we talked a moment ago, we underestimated the gaps in limited accessibility. it's a very complicated, difficult situation. and the risk, of course, is that we will transition in the course of 2022 into very geographically differentiated world in which we have large populations and low and middle income countries where there is uncontrolled transmission and uncontrolled replication. if we have countries stuck

there were targets set earlier this year, some stimulated by the imf and other major institutions, setts for having 10% vaccinated by the end of september, 40% of the world's population by the end of the calendar year and 70% by next september. the reality is that for many, many countries those targets are simple he not going to be reached. they are unrealistic. we underestimated the power of nationalism and hoarding and the degree to which the marketplace for vaccines would be and transparent -- on transparent ro which simply the muscle and power of the most powerful and most prosperous countries would dominate. and so there's been some really hard lessons. and this -- and of course as we talked a moment ago, we underestimated the gaps in limited accessibility. it's a very complicated, difficult situation. and the risk, of course, is that we will transition in the course of 2022 into very geographically differentiated world in which we have large populations and low and middle income countries where there is uncontrolled transmission and uncontrolled replication. if we have countries

this is worrying, more land above the bank of england's taggart, the imf says inflation could hit 5.5%lthy amount, it is not keeping up with prices. 50 healthy amount, it is not keeping up with rices. ., healthy amount, it is not keeping up with rices. . ,, with prices. so what will the bank do? this is _ with prices. so what will the bank do? this is the _ with prices. so what will the bank do? this is the tricky _ with prices. so what will the bank do? this is the tricky situation, i do? this is the tricky situation, normally they _ do? this is the tricky situation, normally they would _ do? this is the tricky situation, normally they would say i do? this is the tricky situation, normally they would say this i do? this is the tricky situation, normally they would say this is| do? this is the tricky situation, l normally they would say this is a slam dunk, no problem, rates go up, it is obvious, but because of the omicron are varied and what happened last month when they said we want to wait and see what the effect of furlough wear and i didn't put up the rates when they expected them