is that polite or impolite? >> well, you see, it's almost like she's a non-person to me because she's so quiet. >> do you think that has high no-to-do with the fact that she can't speak a considered of english? >> possibly. she could at least smile. >> right. >> but of course in the end there's only one panel that really matters. so ohio voter, who do you think won tonight's debate? >> i thought obama won. >> obama it is then because you are the only one who counts. [laughter] what a waste of time. úúúú [cheering and applause] >> jon: welcome back. my guest tonight is a statistician and founder of the any timed political blog 538.com. his new book is called "the signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail but some don't." please welcome back to the program nate silver. [applause] thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> jon: absolutely fascinating book. i very much enjoyed the parts of it that i was able to understand. which is very minute. but obviously more importantly, right now... >> right. >> jon:

first thought wrong, inappropriate, impolite, incorrect, cruel, criminal, abusive, petty, angry, poor, first thought wrong, absolutely. first thought wrong. 12 minutes, that's what i get? 12? second thought was i'll take two and make a difference. first thought wrong, sometimes second thought wrong grr! sometimes it takes me 15 minutes to get to a healthy thought. sometimes longer. sometimes four days of long, wrong, and strong. i went through t.s.a. recently in san jose where i live. i was born and raised in oakland, i went to jail in livermore. here is the part. normal people don't laugh at jail there. i worked there. god bless you if you worked there. i couldn't do that job for two days in a row. i can do it for an hour. an ex-felon who is an extraordinary father. i can become an ex-drunk who is an exceptional citizen. there is a transition necessary for a convicted, afflicted person the and it involves payback. i owe so i go. but i'll tell the incarcerated, hey, if life was fair, you wouldn't be in here right now. you would have parents that cared and gave you the road map to succ

floated in all directions today with an investor is asking what is being done we got pressed so be impolitic on the euro as a leader is that it's really as investors and really papers are just the people in greece and sellers trying to make ends meet now we spoke to a danish sachs a bank expert referring to the situation as groundhog day. i think what we see is a combination of germany being still saying nine nine nine dong and at the same time that the social change unless you just talk briefly will increase i mean to me the real surprise here is that the source of tension is not bigger and more should be seen in the streets because ultimately this extended britain the victim has become the middle class and the employees who today take hold listen ever before and what they do take hold is actually not able to buy them anything close to what it did just one year or two years ago. where the your pin markets right now are actually timing more display and that's not because of what's going in the going on in the eurozone i should say it's what's going on in the u.s. right now because there are

and his law practice, learned in the technicalities of the law without the remotest interest or impolite culture. he also pronounced him deserving of the honorary degree awarded him by the university of south carolina. he was man of moderation and charity who refuse to speak unkindly if anyone's at the town's most popular citizen for 40 years. yet the distinctive quality that emerges of pollock stoops was that of remarkably mature pics there. he rolled ventura county to machination so secret that went for decades kovalev under his authority without being aware of its existence. it was the quality of that and to drive into the fat. that's the other thing i didn't tell you about the 1912 election is that he didn't just attack jealous. he actually attacked the father in front of a young strom thurmond, called him pussyfoot bill for the way he went around people's backs and didn't confront his political enemies man to man, that kind of thing. simkin strutted him in his candidacy for prosecuting attorney was bloodlessly cut short as well as a schoolmaster whose dismissal stoops quietly engine

are you hopeful that the vice president is a little impolite tonight?far, but i want him to be direct, to address the issues. i think the president missed some opportunities. i think he would be the first to confess that. i know joe biden, chairman of the foreign relations committee, chairman of the judicial committee. quite a career in the senate. he is also a person that listens carefully to people and he understands some of the things that governor romney said in the campaign reversed course on in the debate. >> that will be a point that he will come out with tonight. one of the most important goals for the vice president tonight is to make the economic case for the campaign. it will be important for him to be on offense instead of defending the president's record. how does he do that? >> the one thing the president should have brought up more often was romney's position, which said let the automobile companies go bankrupt. he wrote an article in "the washington post," that was the headline, let them go bankrupt and thousands of american jobs would h

he will be impolite. he will be blunt. he will come up with his arms swinging. [talking over each other] what does it mean? >> the president will make a case for the kind of america where we really economy from the middle out. for the kind of america where consumers are protected from insurance companies who want to deny them benefits when they need them or credit card companies that build their applications forms with all sorts of unintelligible detail that ends up creating hardship for the consumers they bring in. that is why he put in place the health care reform. that is why he has called on congress to pass a middle-class tax cuts. they go to 98% of the american people. republicans have said no because the one taxes to go up on money sent -- 90% of the american people and less millionaires and billionaires get tax cuts too. that is bad policy. it does not reflect the values this president believes are a part of the debate we are having today. the president will make a strong case. on tuesday and going forward. thank you. >> more campaign debate conference -