now stay here in germany the munich based institute for economic research has just released its latest business climate survey results it shows german business confidence plummeted to a record low in april as firms french of the corona virus for us now we've invited the president off the institute's to talk more on that caymans forest joins me from new nick welcome to the devaney mystifies so german business has never been this pessimistic about the future what does that mean materiality it means that they will reconsider their plan they will certainly invest less of a may dismiss people make up the labor force the survey also tells us that their current business situation is very bad so that means the money that is coming in the sales they still have very low and that means they are accumulating losses and that of course reinforces the trend to cut back spending to cut back cap ex so the crisis is getting deeper here ok has they've been a support for business and what do you make of the rescue package that e.u. leaders have now agreed. well there has been a lot of support mobilized ma

the conversation let's bring in stephanie cutter editorial director with the american institute for economic research jeffrey thank you for your time today i want to ask you this what are your thoughts do you think these deficits will ever return to some managed manageable levels when we make it through the crisis or is it really going to make it the recovery that much more difficult when we're starting so much in the red already. the recovery is going to be almost impossible i think maybe if we had ended the shutdown a few weeks ago and stop this outrageous amount of trillions and trillions and trillions of spending that we had a much greater chance of getting out of this mess quicker but bad but every day we delay the opening and every day we keeps passing these hundreds of spend billions of dollars of spending is just more pillaging of the taxpayers to add on top of the house arrest and the mandatory shutdowns and this is the way you destroy an economy for you know not just a year but 5 years maybe 10 years so this is this is an immense calamity like i say it's adding the pillage of the taxpayers

for more of the story we can speak to claudia kemper she's an expert in energy economics and sustainability with the german institute for economic research claudia thanks for joining us here in d.w. this pandemic as we know has really devastated the global economy what is the impact been on the global oil prices. well the ore price hass collapsed not only because of the pandemic crisis we already saw on january steep cuts also because of a dispute between saudi arabia and russia and all this drives your price down. this is all driving the price down we know the supply is rising there is a huge oversupply of crude oil on the market right now what can producers do to tackle this problem i mean will cutting supply further actually help. while it depends on whether the opec countries are really able to cut the demand because $10000000.00 barrels a day is a large amount if they are able to do so the oversupply will be 0 because the i assume it's because of the economic crisis demand cut down $2000000.00 barrels a day if there would be a $10000000000.00 barrels supply cut then we would have a lot of supply oversupply anymore and the price woul

that analysis but from where we are now joined by editorial director of the american institute for economic research jeffrey tucker and he started just above the trading todd at the horowitz gentlemen thank you for joining me today markets seem to be rallying a little bit at least for now jeff i want to start with you will we see more fiscal policy being rolled out in the coming months and when will we start seeing it's a facts actually taking hold what kind of policies should we really expect to see. there's no chance for there to be any stimulus so long as the economy is basically closed i mean i don't even know what that means what are you stimulating i mean right now we've got grocery stores opening open and essential what political class calls essential businesses but there's stimulus can have no effects long as this is the economy is not opening right now markets are rallying at the slightest hint of liberalization and in the last 24 hours we saw a little bit of some opinions change. editorial writers begging for us and that gave a little bit of optimism to the markets that are desperate. for

let's take a closer look at this with a flat shot has presidents of the german institute for economic research in berlin welcome to day w. so john is clearly heading into recession how bad do you think it will be the honest answer is no one really knows and if you look at the projections over the last 2 months 2 months everyone was still mostly optimistic for 2020 and the 2028 now the projections have been declining now the government's base expecting minus 6 points because for this year it could be less it could be more no one can give you a reliable answer because it depends on how long it will take for the lock down measures to be east how quickly the economy can be rethought can recover and essentially we don't know whether that will be a 2nd wave of infections a 2nd a lockdown. and these are not really forecast scenarios scenarios sue me that there is no 2nd wave of infections assuming there is no new lock down in the future. but i think the key message must be this is the deepest economic crisis also germany but all of europe in the global economy has been experiencing since local 2. it

economy we've been speaking with a fragile who's head of the german institute for economic research wellas to what this means for the global outlook we have to understand that the global economy is so integrated so strongly degraded in the u.s. so important for everyone for all european economies but china that if the u.s. is not recovering the rest of the book will not become. so clearly china is ahead of the. way you see the business is starting up again production rising but the u.s. probably has not reached the peak yet so here we are probably 2 months 3 months behind what is happening in china so this will mean until the u.s. is not be covering markedly the world economy will be in it difficult. and we'll take a look at some of the other developments concerning the pandemic corona virus infections confirmed worldwide have passed 1500000 with the death toll now over 90000 for some countries hope the worst may soon be over after seeing sustained drops of new cases but others saying fresh outbreaks hungary's discovered more than 100 infections a cast scent of a senior citizens in the c

well the economic consequences are becoming clearer and increasingly frightening that's for him he's the president of the german institute for economic research. the situation in the u.s. is getting a lot to get worse before it's getting better the biggest economy in the world what does it mean for the world economy. well it will mean for the world economy that the recovery will be delayed and we have to understand that the global economy is so integrated so strongly integrated in the u.s. is so important for everyone for all european economies but china that if the u.s. is not recovering the rest of the world will not become but so clearly china is head of this way you see the business is starting up again production rising but the u.s. probably has not reached the peak yet so he is probably 2 months 3 months behind what is happening in china so this will mean until the u.s. is not be covering markedly the world economy will be in a difficult situation with the international monetary fund has said that especially emerging economies will be hit very hard by a depression comparable to the want and the 930 s. why especially these economies. the

and in great barrington we cross to pete earley he is an economist with the american institute for economic research all right cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate andrew in houston let me go to you 1st here. the i guess this is the 2nd shock in as many weeks for you because you cover the.

florida atlantic university as well as director of the sound money project at the american institute for economic research and in beijing we crafted to go he is the vice president of the center for china and globalization carjacking crosstime groups in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok let's go to william 1st in florida. just a few hours ago unemployment data was just released now we're up to over 20000000 people applying for unemployment in the united states who would have thought even 6 weeks ago it's extraordinary and being a historian by trade i know the history of the great depression depression very well not only in the united states but globally so when i see these numbers come out it's terrifying to hear how it is you know this pandemic will be resolved it's only a matter of question and resources and patients because i understand that because i've been locked down for a month now and it's getting very very tiresome. how is this pandemic going to impact the recovery if there is a recovery and i never thought in my lifetime i would ask about is there g

atlantic university as well as a director of the sound money project at the american institute for economic research and in beijing we crafted to go he is the vice president of the center for china and globalization kargil in crosstime proves in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok let's go to william 1st in florida. just a few hours ago unemployment data was just released now we're up to over 20000000 people applying for unemployment in the united states who would have thought even 6 weeks ago it's extraordinary and being a historian by trade i know the history of the great depression depression very well.

and in great barrington we cross to pete earley he is an economist with the american institute for economic research all right cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate andrew in houston let me go to you 1st here. the i guess this is the 2nd shock in as many weeks for you because you've covered the oil markets and now we have the process being rolled out to deal with the corona virus when we've seen markets crash and we see a lot of disorder and a lot of questioning of what direction we need to go into but there seems to be quite clear that a recession is going to be upon us and very very soon if not we're in it already go ahead and what are your thoughts. well i think that's right because if you look around the world we have school closures we have industries telling people to telecommute we also have really the shutdown of the economies say like in italy where everyone is staying at home or in spain and we're seeing that spread to parts of the u.s. most notably san francisco and of course the world economy is so dependent on consumer spending tr

joined by my guest geoffrey tucker in new york he is editorial director for the american institute for economic research in los angeles we have piii and he is an independent economic and geo political analyst former commodities trader and strategic planning advisor and in indianapolis we cross alexandra hudson she is an independent scholar writer consultant and speaker or across type rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate its go to pi 1st because i one of my rules on this program we always go to the person that got up early is that you got up really early for those programs i wrote very much appreciated by you know there's a lot of talk about how capitalism is. performing and for whom and we look at the generation x. we look at the middle millennial as we see the attraction of socialism in the polls so my question is very broad and it's a very deep question at the same time he said is capitalism working if it is for whom go ahead. well it's a great question. kind of response question is whether capitalism whose capitalism i mean it's 201920 years ago we had t

atlantic university as well as a director of the sound money project at the american institute for economic research and in beijing we crafted to go he is the vice president of the center for china and globalization harjo in crosstime group in effect that. just a few hours ago unemployment data was just released now we're up to over 20000000 people applying for unemployment in the united states who would have thought even 6 weeks ago it's extraordinary and being a historian by trade i know the history of the great depression depression very well not only in the united states but globally so when i see these numbers come out it's terrifying to hear how it is you know this pandemic will be resolved it's only a matter of question and resources and patients because i understand that because i've been locked down for a month now and it's getting very very tiresome. how is this pandemic going to impact the recovery in their. it's a recovery and i never thought in my my time i would ask about is there going to be a recovery because we're seeing such amazing numbers that are just terrifying to the average p

joining us is clemens fuest, president at the ifo institute for economic research.s the economy to contract by about 5% this year. is it too optimistic? dr. fuest: i think that the uncertainty is enormous at the moment. it is very hard to predict what is going to happen, but the forecast, -1%. forecasts at other certainly, on the optimistic side, the imf has forecast -7%, but it is very hard to make any productions at the moment, because the pandemic is really very large. francine: ok, but what do you think is the biggest risk for the german economy right now? dr. fuest: the risk is certainly that this recovery everybody is expecting, maybe in the third quarter, may not be coming or may be very slow. this, theyle realize will adjust their plans. we cannot exclude that the crisis was spread to an area of the economy, to the financial sector, so there may be knock-on effects of this first very strong impact of the crisis, which can make the recession a lot worse. francine: so actually you think the implications, i guess, of the german economy having to, again, go into

capitalism i'm joined by my guest geoffrey tucker in new york he is editorial director for the american institute. economic research in los angeles we have piii and he is an independent economic and geo political analyst former commodities trader and strategic planning advisor and in indianapolis we cross alexandra hudson she is an independent scholar writer consultant and speaker right across cycles in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate go to pi 1st because i one of my rules on this program we always go to the person that got up early is that you got up really early for those programs and i'm very much appreciate.

economic policy institute and in washington d.c. jeff hauser executive director at the revolving door project at the center for economic and policy research welcome to you all jeff let me start with you many of the restrictions have been put in place in the u.s. . now you have this 4.8 percent contraction that's happened and the restrictions were put in place before this is only really hinting at how bad things will get. absolutely the 2nd quarter the economy the worst in american history the intentional debt reduction in economic activity is unprecedented it's necessary if anything it's actually insufficient in terms of how much america is complying with you not stay at orders but if that 2nd quarter the economic statistics are going to be a bloodbath and the reality is can be even worse robert when will the bulk of the pandemics economic impact be felt most i think we're going to see it in the 2nd quarter certainly but and we we could see unemployment surge to levels again perhaps at honest and press and we were the numbers out this morning suggests that we had an additional 3800000 workers filed for unemployment official numbers are ov

export companies is in freefall that's according to the country's economic research institute info it says april's export predictions for german industry dropped from minus 19 percent to minus 50 percent a record low pessimism is particularly high within key sectors like automotive manufacturing and a mechanical engineer. now for millions of muslims around the world this is a ramadan unlike any other under pakistan's lockdown restaurants and shops are closed to everyone including muslims who at sunset break their day long fast but some entrepreneurs are turning to the internet to keep their businesses afloat. new order's just arrived 29 year olds there in consols have traditionally cooked food using social media this way she can earn money during the crisis and doesn't have to leave home now that restaurants are closed more people are ordering online from harz well. if you have confidence in yourself and are expert at using social media you can do all these things by maintaining social distancing you have no need to go outside if you have knowledge about social media social media is an opportunity as one can make contac

indic a senior policy fellow at the center for global development from bond better spot managing director and head of research at the german economic institute and from ottawa diane cheery ak and economist and city a fellow in the global economy program at the center for international governance innovation gentlemen welcome to all of you jeremy let's start with you how do nations come out of lockdown is there a one size fits all formula or does it need a specific approach do tailored to each individual country and economy well i think every country needs to adapt some common principles to its own setting and figure out how it can implement those but you know what we're seeing is a few common threads you need widespread testing so that anyone who has who is a suspect case can access testing the need you need large scale contact tracing and quarantine that you know that large scale contact tracing it allows you to identify the people who have been exposed in a very specific way so that you can quarantine only them instead of courtin your whole economy and then it's very very important as well to scale up hospital readiness so that if there are

allocations for the years 2012 to 2015 mercer financed a number of institutes and lobbies among them the heritage foundation which fights taxes and economic regulation $1500000.00 the media research center which fights leftist media bias $12000000.00 the government accountability institute which tracks government corruption and publishes books against hillary clinton 3.7 $1000000.00 the heartland institute which defends climate change skeptics $2800000.00. in new york he even paid for an ad denouncing the construction of a mosque near ground 0 in just 2 years robert mercer became one of the 10 most influential billionaires in politics according to the washington post's. in 2011 breitbart news the right wing online newspaper was in financial difficulty . mercer saw an opportunity and he invested $10000000.00 in the web site. the executive chairman of breitbart was a prominent figure closely linked to trump's campaign stephen bannon. a former goldman sachs trader he became a hollywood producer in the late 1990 s. he wanted to make films and t.v. series to promote his ultra conservative political views. mercer and bad and are very closely associated and by mercer associating himself

economies across the world, and new research says low earners and younger employees in the uk are likely to be hardest hit. the economic think tank the institute formore likely to work in sectors which have effectively shut down, compared to those on higher incomes. joining me now from the ifs is its director, pauljohnson. thank you for being with us. what kind ofjobs are we talking about? we are talking aboutjobs in childcare, hospitality, restaurants, some aspects of the transport network. things that are often done in hospitality, social care, childcare, that sort of thing, often done by women and younger people and lower earners. and these are sectors that have been covered to a degree by potential bail outs from the government or not? yes, the government or not? yes, the government bailouts have been very widespread, both in terms of things like business rates and holidays and the furlough scheme, so we are not seeing all these people will lose their jobs, seeing all these people will lose theirjobs, although seeing all these people will lose their jobs, although clearly large numbers are as we saw almost a million claims for universal credit

new research says low earners and younger employees in the uk are likely to be hardest hit financially by the lockdown. the institute for fiscal studies — an economicgher incomes. joining me now is our business presenter, ben thompson. then, why is this group particularly more badly affected than others? you touched on it there, it is essentially because those are the workers in those groups that attend to work in industries that are most badly affected by the shutdown. because they are quite simply the jobs that you can‘t do from home. industries like travel, tourism and hospitality and retail. you mentioned women, they predominantly make up the bulk of the workforce for retail and hospitality. they are a third more likely than men to be affected by this shutdown. younger people, those under the age of 25 or two and a half times more likely to work in one of those industries. an industry you can‘t just transfer and do from home. it is also worth bearing in mind, of course, that there are big questions about whether those jobs will be available when all of this is over. we have heard from a number of retailers recently suggesting that this shutdown

new research says low earners and younger employees in the uk are likely to be hardest hit financially by the lockdown. the institute for fiscal studies — an economicch more badly affected than others? good morning. it is notjust those on low incomes but women and under 25s the ifs singles out stock it suggests those groups are most likely to be working in jobs that are shut down as a result of this virus. in hospitality, travel, tourism. not the sorts ofjobs you can do from home. because they are customer facing jobs can do from home. because they are customerfacing jobs and can do from home. because they are customer facing jobs and you need to be present to do them. the ifs points out it is a double whammy for many, those groups will be working injobs they many, those groups will be working in jobs they cannot do. question is whether they can go back to those jobs when this virus outbreak is over, whether business can just pick up. we have seen headlines about the number of businesses that might struggle to survive over the next couple of months given their business shut down overnight. there isa business shut down overnight. there is a real con