and the analysis the institute for fiscal studies is doing is going on behind me in this building.behind me in this building. the unfortunate thing is they are saying these forecasts on which these gloomy predictions are being made may be too optimistic. in fact the obr is predicting productivity will improve by growth of i% obr is predicting productivity will improve by growth of 1% per year, more than it's been for the last ten yea rs. more than it's been for the last ten years. the amount spent on housing won't put much of a dent in the problem, just 1.5 billion extra pounds per year. this depends on the forecast being right and the policies being implemented, neither of those are certain. andy verity, thank you. dozens of people had to be rescued from their homes in parts of cumbria and lancashire last night after heavy rainfall caused flooding. more than 70 people were helped to safety after the emergency services received hundreds of calls. a number of flood warnings are still in place. our correspondent danny savage reports. after hours of heavy rain, the river in galgate ne

two hours later the institute for fiscal studies presented their report. s stagnant. for at least a decade. more likely two decades. as tom said, the longest recession in wages since the napoleonic wars. and the prospect exactly as we said in the prospect exactly as we said in the obs and the debate, and the iss. first of all that economic growth down and little prospect of it lifting. productivity in a crisis. asa lifting. productivity in a crisis. as a result of that no wonder wages are down, because productivity means you can earn the wages we need. in france and germany, they produce in four days what we produce in five. not because british workers are any less hard—working, quite the reverse, british workers are working longer hours. they haven't been given the tools, the equipment and the investments to enable them to develop the economy. you know, we warned them that we warned them, we've warned them time and time again, after the crash itself they had a choice, didn't they? they had a choice in which they could actually ensure they invest in the eco

of the abolition of a tax for first time buyers let alone according to the neoliberal institute for fiscal studies to last decades without earnings growth for u.k. labor leader german corbin one on say he wanted for drazen may concern just as specifically why bailed out bankers to enjoy free movement around the e.u. after breakfast but not normal work because last week the brics it secretary said he would guarantee free movement for bankers postscripts it other any other groups to whom the prime minister believes freedom of movement should apply nurses don't just teachers scientists agricultural workers because. the u.k. pm said corbin copied his questions from the british liberal party something those on the radical left may well be worrying about given his m.p.'s don't seem very socialist i'm very interested to the right honorable gentleman has found his appearance as a prime is this question's been going so well he's had to borrow a question from the leader of the liberal democrats corbin not predicting the teresa mayes chancellor was about to dispense with near liberal talk of balancing the bo

that‘s according to the latest report from the institute for fiscal studies. ‘s talk to andrew wood, senior research economist from the institute for fiscal studies. thank you forjoining us. what were you looking at in the survey? the key question we were trying to get at is, is it the case that not only leaving education in a recession means you are worse off leaving education in a recession means you are worse off then, but there are persistent effects? so even when the economy returns to normal, if you were unlucky enough to have started looking for a job in the middle of a recession, your earnings and likelihood of being implied are still low as a result five or ten years later. so what advice would you give to young people who are about to leave education in a recession? should they stay on? because of the many that would increase their debt levels. you are right, the one response would be to stay on in education to avoid exiting into a relatively weak economy. although the bad news is it doesn‘t look like the bad news is it doesn‘t look like the economy i

the institute for fiscal studies warns that britain is facing an unprecedented squeeze on living standards, and is experiencing two lost decades without pay growth. it looks like we've got at least another five years to go before we get anywhere near to having earnings back where they were in 2008. that is wholly unprecedented. in argentina, families get reports of an explosion on a submarine which went missing over a week ago. an exclusive look inside the saudi hotel where prominent figures continue to be held as part of a campaign against corruption. on newsnight, do animals feel pain or have emotions? dog owners know the answer to that but mps have been accused of denying that animals can have feelings. if they really believe that war is that fake news? good evening and welcome to bbc news. british workers are facing an unprecedented two decades, without any rise in average earnings according to the leading economic research group, the institue for fiscal studies. it says the forecasts published with yesterday's budget made for "pretty grim reading" with government borrowing still going

the institute for fiscal studies warns that britain is facing an unprecedented squeeze on living standardslost decades without pay growth. it looks like we've got at least another five years to go before we get anywhere near to having earnings back where they were in 2008. that is wholly unprecedented. in argentina, families get reports of an explosion on a submarine which went missing over a week ago. an exclusive look inside the saudi hotel where prominent figures continue to be held as part of a campaign against corruption.

the institute for fiscal studies has been analysing wednesday's budget now on bbc news all the latests news live from singapore. to all shoppers out there, it is black friday, marking the official start of the christmas shopping season start of the christmas shopping season in america. first there was sony, then yahoo and now the latest isa sony, then yahoo and now the latest is a uber, our company is doing enough to protect themselves against cyber hackers? good morning, asia, hello, world. it's a friday, the weekend right around the corner, glad you could join us for this edition of asia business report, i'm rico hizon. it's going to be hard to compete with the $25 billion chinese consumers spent on singles day on the 11th of november but after thanksgiving thursday, black friday and cyber monday marks the start of the us christmas shopping season. in america alone 164 million shoppers are expected to go nation bending spree this weekend, that's over half of the us population —— to go on a spending spree. in the uk shoppers are expected to spend over 13 billion us dollars over the n

of the abolition of a tax for first time buyers let alone according to the neoliberal institute for fiscal studies to last decades without earnings growth for u.k. labor day the german call been won on so he wanted for drazen may concern just as specifically why bailed out bankers to enjoy free movement around the e.u. after brics it but not normal work because last week the brics it secretary said he would guarantee free movement for bankers postscripts it other any other groups to whom the prime minister believes freedom of movement should apply. don't just teach . scientists agricultural workers care workers. the u.k. pm said corbin copied his questions from the british liberal party something those on the radical left may well be worrying about given his m.p.'s don't seem very socialist i'm very interested in the right honorable gentleman has found that he.

market forecasts had been running ahead of the obr and the institute for fiscal studies.el were not a surprise, no material impact on sterling or interest rate or the stock market. and what about oil prices? they have rallied. they have been quite robust. the six up week in seven, and at levels not seen since the middle of 2015 so pretty good. it depends which price you want to use, brent is in the 60 or wti is in the high 50s. that is a much better numberfor oil high 50s. that is a much better number for oil producers, whether thatis number for oil producers, whether that is individual companies particularly in the us and elsewhere but also oil—producing countries very much need those revenues. and they have suffered quite a lot, some having to completely rethink their reliance on oil and they might be taking a bit of heart as a result of this. that's right and there is also support from opec with another meeting coming up on thursday and it isa meeting coming up on thursday and it is a question of whether they can agree to prolong their cuts into early next year. great

deal with cameron over the british government itself where is to blame the neoliberal institute for fiscal studies says british workers now face to economic last decades something with which britain's shadow chief secretary to the treasury peter dowd agrees thanks for being on the show again a great successful speech by chancellor philip hammond universally applauded by members of our press corps what's wrong with it well it didn't deal with fundamentals did it number housing well let's go through it number one g.d.p. growth flat line investment flat line productivity which feeds into wages flatlined wages worse than they were ten years ago in real terms. in for infrastructure in a pretty poor state public services an apostate no pay rise for public sector workers though the health secretary says you have a chat with the nurses about. half a million nurses a love child with five million other public sector workers can go whistle. that seems pretty grim to me what was your understanding about that comment you made about nurses there was an immediate figure given but something about the. pay review

i asked the head of the institute for fiscal studies why that growth downgrade mattered so much.conomic forecasts might not sound terribly important, but when they mean that your earnings, you're living standards, are going to be much lower than you expected, then it's time to listen. earnings in the early 2020s will still be below where they were in 2008, making this easily the worst decade and a bit for living standards. notjust in living memory, but a long time before that, too. the prime minister and chancellor visiting a college for training builders. today tory mps were patting philip hammond on the back, saying he had delivered a successful budget. but theresa may knows she has to convince people like adele that the government is on her side. what the budget was about was about jobs for people up and down the country. it was about ensuring people are in work with that income for theirfamily. that effort to seize the opportunities of the future has to overcome a major hurdle. the living standards squeeze. at the time of the financial crisis, average earnings were £24,500. t

a bleak assessment of the chancellor's budget as the institute for fiscal studies warns that workersing two lost decades without earnings growth. philip hammond says he hopes to prove the earnings forecasts wrong. that's all from the bbc news at one, so it's goodbye from me and on bbc one, we nowjoin the bbc‘s news teams where you are. have a good afternoon. good afternoon, i'm hugh woozencroft with a look at the day's sport here on bbc news. england's cricketers have made a solid start to the ashes series, ending day one of the first test on 196 for 4. they're taking on australia side that haven't lost at test match the gabba in almost 30 years, as they begin their defence of the urn. our correspndent andy swiss, was watching in brisbane. what an intriguing first day of the ashes we have had here. it has ended with honours relatively even. england 196—4 at the close. they won the toss and chose to bat and got off to a terrible start, alastair cook just out for two from mitchell starc. we wondered if there would be an old—fashioned england collapse, but they rebuilt thanks to the cen

|j asked the head of the institute for fiscal studies why it mattered.may not sound important but when they meet your earnings and living standards will be lower than expected it is time to listen. earnings in the early 2020s will be below where they were in 2008, making it the worst decade for living standards in living memory and a long time before that. the prime minister visiting a college for trainee builders. she knows she has to convince people like adele she is on her side. the chancellor andi she is on her side. the chancellor and i agree the budget was about jobs for people up and down the country, ensuring people are in work with income for their family and building the homes they need and ensuring we seize opportunities for the future. the effort to seize opportunities of the future has to ove i’co m e opportunities of the future has to overcome a major hurdle, the living standards squeeze. at the time of the financial crisis average earnings were £24,500 and fell sharply as the financial crisis bit. look how slow the recovery has been. even

i asked the head of the institute for fiscal studies why the growth downgrade mattered so much.und important, but when they mean your earnings and living standards will be much lower than expected, it is time to listen. earnings in the early 2020s will still be below where they were in 2008, making this easily the worst decade for living standards, notjust in living memory, but a long time before that. the prime minister visiting a college for trainee builders in leeds. she knows she has to convince people like adele she is on her side. the chancellor and i agree that the budget was about jobs for people up and down the country, about ensuring people are in work with that income for their family and it is about building the homes they need and it is about ensuring we seize opportunities for the future. the effort to seize the opportunities of the future has to overcome a major hurdle — the living standards squeeze. at the time of the financial crisis, average earnings were £24,500 and they fell sharply as the financial crisis bit. look how slow the recovery has been. even by 202

the institute for fiscal studies has said you cannot raise 50 billion through companies because they charge their customers more or pay out less to pensioners who are shareholders and rely on the income. is it time to admit that those costings will hit ordinary people as well as just companies? i do not think it is time to admit that because i do not believe that. we set out absolutely transparently hour 46.8 billion and where we would raise that money from. we believe it would affect only 5% in terms of income tax payers and the rest of the formula will come from corporations. let's take an example. in relation to corporation tax it was a 26% and the government proposed to bring it down to 17% and we would take it to 26% and it was still be the lowest in the g7. somebody has to bear this, either the shareholders, the workers or the customers. that is the point. there is no such thing as a company independent of people who actually run it. that is the point, you raise productivity, you put investment in the economy, people get higher wages, there is more profit and that is where the

the institute for fiscal studies said last month if the prospects for productivity of very poor, thatequirement would go up to that big black bar on the far right of that chart, £69.9 billion. that is very gloomy. it is pretty extreme? yes, but what is important, andrew, it shows a small tweak on that productivity number has a big effect on the public finances. the problem is, the obr will say because of productivity growth not being that good, it will have the following bad impact on the deficit. but we're not quite clear, it is a bit of a stretch to know what it is? that is true. it has an effect on people's incomes as well. there has been some better news in the last three months. productivity is up 1% after two quarters of decline, so maybe there is a bit of sunshine. we will see. it is a tricky one for the chancellor ‘s. for all chancellors, all sorts of problems can be washed away if the government grows robustly because you get more tax revenue. our robustly because you get more tax revenue. oui’ economy robustly because you get more tax revenue. our economy is growing but not

i'm joined by pauljohnson, director of the institute for fiscal studies.hat little piece of philip hammond at the beginning of the hour saying, "g rowth beginning of the hour saying, "growth continues." but when you look at what is to come in future yea rs, look at what is to come in future years, the picture is not so healthy, paul? well, the forecast is for growth which is better than the reverse , for growth which is better than the reverse, but it's for a lot less growth than we were hoping for back in march. it is dramatic downgrade in forecast growth so back in march the obr, the official watchdog was saying we will get growth back to 2% a year within two or three years and now it is struggling back to i.5% a year and that's a big difference and one of the reasons why the chancellor wasn't able to do much because he had no money to play with. yes, if the forecasts are accurate then that continues for several years to come? well, it looks like it might and the underlying thing here is the productivity problem and if you look at the figures here, it is

of the nitty—gritty detailfrom the we will get more of the nitty—gritty detail from the institute for fiscal studiesetails line by line but this morning their director was also striking a fairly pessimistic note about the pressure on wages and how we might not be better off in 2022 in terms of wages than we were at the time of the banking crash. it's been confirmed that jon venables, one of the killers of the toddlerjames bulger, was recalled to prison last week. police are investigating allegations that illegal images of child abuse were found on a computer linked to him, although no charges have been brought. the 35—year—old served seven years injailforjames' killing, and was released on licence in 2001 under a new identity. our correspondent daniel sandford is here and can tell us more. bring us up—to—date with these allegations. because jon venables is on licence he is effectively serving a life sentence but is allowed to come out by the parole board. he is regularly visited i shouldn't officers and last week during a written visit, what appeared to be child abuse images seem to have been found

joining me now is carl emerson, deputy director of the institute for fiscal studies.es that are giveaways, possibly some tax cuts, public service spending, lightening up public service spending, lightening up on some of the welfare cuts. i think that is possible. we would see the forecast for borrowing worsen, adding to that with giveaways. happy to borrow more, but i still think it is important to remember that the bigger picture, even if we see some tax cuts, and spending increases, only going to offset a little. you'd still see net cuts, but not as big as those from march. can you talk us through the money that the chancellor has available? in some sense, he has not got any extra money. the figures this year, looking strong. he could stand up and say that borrowing is not going to be as big as march. but we also expect significant downgrades to how much the economy is going to grow over the next few years. downgrading productivity growth. lower wage growth. the exchequer getting less tax revenue. borrowing forecast, revised upwards. at least medium term. the starti

to parliament later this month it will take a huge toll on our public finances, as the institute for fiscal studiess investment is being held back by creaking infrastructure and the shortage of skilled workers, so government must act first. yet, under the conservatives, crucial infrastructure investment has been delayed, from real d k into the swa nsea delayed, from real d k into the swansea tidal lagoon. the adult skills budget has been slashed. they even skills budget has been slashed. they eve n we nt skills budget has been slashed. they even went into the election promising to cut per—pupil funding in real terms. the chancellor should use his autumn budget to change direction and invest in long—term growth. that is what labour has already pledged to do. whether national transformation fund to upgrade our country‘s infrastructure and reverse yea rs upgrade our country‘s infrastructure and reverse years of underinvestment in the regions. 0n fairness between the south and the north and between east and west and the nations has to be addressed. we have to be investing in transport, energy and capit

well, think tank the institute for fiscal studies — has been crunching the numbers after the budget andime — growth in average earnings will be £1400 lower than was predicted last year. our economics correspondent andy verity is outside the ifs in central london. the story yesterday was about the predictions the chancellor gave, really. yes, the acceptance by the office for budget responsibility that we are not getting the growth in productivity that we used to, productivity being the amount we each produce each hour, used to grow 296 each produce each hour, used to grow 2% each year, but in the last ten yea rs 2% each year, but in the last ten years that has not been happening and the visual prediction has been it would recover to where it used to grow but now there has been an a cce pta nce grow but now there has been an acceptance that it won't —— and the official prediction. employees cannot be paid a pay rise above inflation each year and that means a long squeeze on living standards, longer we have seen. as pauljohnson from the ifs told me. the squeeze on living standards over the