that is highly unlikely, but bear in mind, that is after the respected analyst at the institute for fiscal studiesculated the uk is currently seeing the highest level of taxes since records began after the second world war. and secondly, he is expected to announce an increase in the living wage. that would come into force next april. and if the hints from the treasury are to be believed, it would go up from £10 42 per hour to £11 per hour, if you are over 23 years of age. that is around 4%. there will be much more detail, of course, when mr hunt prepares his autumn statement in november, and he is of course hoping to rally the conservative party faithful as much as of course win over the public vote. we are hoping to cross live an hour to our correspondent in manchester who has been covering the conference throughout the day and throughout the few days. we have heard a couple of speeches so far today. any standout moment so far? not in terms of policy. i think there have been rhetoricalflashes. the key think the conservatives are trying to do here is draw a distinction with the labour party and co

that is highly unlikely, but bear in mind, that is after the respected analyst at the institute for fiscal studiesin the living wage. that would come into force next april. and if the hints from the treasury are to be believed, it would go up from £10 42 per hour to £11 per hour, if you are over 23 years of age. that is around 4%. there will be much more detail, of course, when mr hunt prepares his autumn statement in november, and he

this over with a man who knows a lot about the state of the economy, pauljohnson from the institute for fiscal studiesough at the moment to sustain —— to sustain tax cuts, is that a fair analysis? to sustain tax cuts, is that a fair anal sis? , ., to sustain tax cuts, is that a fair anal sis? , ~ , ., analysis? yes, i think it is, we are in a difficult _ analysis? yes, i think it is, we are in a difficult decision, _ analysis? yes, i think it is, we are in a difficult decision, debt - analysis? yes, i think it is, we are in a difficult decision, debt is - analysis? yes, i think it is, we are in a difficult decision, debt is at i in a difficult decision, debt is at its highest level for generations, debt interest payments are huge, the highest they have been for generations. we have been spending rather more over the last several years. this rather more over the last several ears. �* , . , rather more over the last several ears, �* , ., , ., rather more over the last several ears. a. , ., ., years. as a result of covid, the ener: years. as a result of covid, the energy crisis. _ years. as a result of c

there is "no room" for tax cuts or spending increases before an election the institute for fiscal studiesnnual health check of uk tax, spend and borrowing the ifs concludes the country is "in a horrible bind." justin urquhart—stewart, founder of the investment platform regionally joins me now. good morning to you. i am not surprised to hear that. are you? surprised to hear that. are ou? ., . ., �* surprised to hear that. are ou? ., ,., �* surprised to hear that. are ou? ., you? no, it shouldn't come as a surprise- _ you? no, it shouldn't come as a surprise- i— you? no, it shouldn't come as a surprise. i was _ you? no, it shouldn't come as a surprise. i was hoping _ you? no, it shouldn't come as a surprise. i was hoping to - you? no, it shouldn't come as a surprise. i was hoping to hear . surprise. i was hoping to hear some slightly better news. here we are 13 years after we had a government come into power where you have to have a government which is going to take emergency action to sort out the economy, there wasn't any money, and we are in the same position. in those days we had magic

the institute for fiscal studies has come out with the study this week saying taxes are set to increasepounds per household since 2019 making it the highest increase of any government that has been in play in the united kingdom. clearly, a lot more needs to be done. these were the words from jeremy hunt when he spoke to us regarding the tax hikes or whether there was any hikes happening this year or the next. this via sky news. >> i can't tell you what the state of the economy will be going forward. what i can say is it is difficult to see having that kind of tax cut this year for two reasons. >> you say that ahead of the next election. >> i'm answering as accurately as i can. i don't have a crystal ball. i can't tell you what is happening with the economy. right now, public finances don't allow that. our interest payments are predicted to be much higher than at the spring budget and it will be inflationary. is this something i'm willing to put us on a path? i understand lower taxes and i'm prepared to take the difficult decisions to make that happen. >> reporter: tax cuts are occupying

. >> the institute for fiscal studies, one of britain's leading economic think tanks , leading economicnk tanks, has released its latest forecast for britain's economy, and it paints a pretty bleak picture for our future. while it forecasts that the prime minister will meet his promise to halve inflation by the end of the year, it also expects that the year, it also expects that the country is in a fiscal bind that we can neither increase pubuc that we can neither increase public spending nor cut taxes. the cause of this fiscal bind, it says, owes itself to high levels of indebtedness and increase in the cost of that debt and a failure to stimulate growth. this is an unfortunately compelling argument, but we don't have to succumb to this management of decline . one of management of decline. one of the lessons of last year's truss kwarteng mini—budget is that tax cuts must be supported by spending cuts. in the last year or so, borrowing has simply become too expensive . it's become too expensive. it's taking too big a part of our national economy in the year to last may, debt interest pa

>> well, the institute for fiscal studies looked at this and said they don't think there will be a bigwill be a big move away from private schools. >> but i come back to the key question should private question why should private schools have these tax breaks? what is the justification for them? other than that's how it's always been done ? and i think always been done? and i think it's absolutely right to . take a it's absolutely right to. take a fresh look at this and accept that private education should be taxed in the same way as other services have to pay vat on services we have to pay vat on everything else. why not on school fees and what about the other criticism that actually it will make the private school system even more elitist? >> because your likes your >> because your likes of your eton's and your winchester's, they'll be able to afford the fee hike. the parents, they're these schools have got great reserves, massive endowments, lots of investments . but most lots of investments. but most independent schools are of 400 pupils or less their service by parents of children

while the institute for fiscal studies said last week it's likely to be what they said was a decisivemore productive state, not a bigger state. and . if not a bigger state. and. if we increase public sector productivity growth by just half a% we can stabilise public spending as a proportion of gdp , increase it by more , and we , increase it by more, and we can bring the tax burden down in half a% now for those of us with private sector backgrounds, that doesn't seem too much, does it ? doesn't seem too much, does it? in the public sector , i'm in the public sector, i'm telling you, it's harder. but we are up for the challenge . so are up for the challenge. so i've commissioned my deputy, john glenn, to restart the process of public service reform. john wants to know why teachers say that more than half their time is spent not actually teaching by police. officers complain they spend longer filling out forms than catching criminals. why doctors and nurses say they spend up to half their time not with patients, but on admin. of course , we need but on admin. of course, we need modern w

after hamas terror attack sunak stealth raid equivalent to a6p income tax rise, say the institute for fiscal studiesg football fans. those are your front pages. a couple of emails to catch up on. mark gbviews@gbnews.com on crime. you've heard that headune crime. you've heard that headline there. tories to let some criminals out early . this some criminals out early. this from david mark. the simplest form of punishment for low level crime is the birch. no need for prison. six of the birch. and i can assure you you will not do it again. well, talking about crime, should it be against the law to misgender someone ? so law to misgender someone? so let's imagine you've got a biological male that identifies as female. if you say he should, you go to jail. should you go to pnson? you go to jail. should you go to prison? well, that's being hinted at or suggested in a debate party, debate from the labour party, who, honest, will who, let's be honest, will probably next election. probably win the next election. maggie mark, if a man maggie says, mark, if a man wanted a call . oh, excuse me. if wanted a call.

reporting i think we talked about this on the show the day, the institute for the other day, the institute for fiscal social fiscal studiesits lowest. >> it's been at a very long time. that has less do with time. that has less to do with bankers bonuses and more to do with wealth. actually, with wealth. and so actually, the why inequality is so the reason why inequality is so high at the moment and social mobility is so low is because so much people's wealth is tied much of people's wealth is tied up their house up in up in their house or tied up in their inheritance. i'm their inheritance. so i'm actually fast. that's actually not that fast. that's that's normal that that's pretty normal that i mean, for people that mean, for ordinary people that is looks like. is what wealth looks like. >> the wealth looks like their house. everyone. house. oh, yeah. for everyone. i'm that. are you i'm not against that. are you against that? >> well, i suppose my issue is when it's somewhat arbitrary. say, parents, for say, look at my parents, for example. bought a house example. they bought a house in the think it was worth the 1980s.

institute for fiscal studies, very highly regarded says we can't make the numbers work. can't work howhis is where political journalists and economic journalists and economic journalists differ, right? because a political journalist or a politician often who wants tax cuts will say, ah, we're borrowing less than we thought we were going to borrow. that means we've got more money, which means we can implement tax cuts. no no. it means you're about borrow less money. about to borrow less money. you're going be in the you're going to be less in the hole you were an economist. hole than you were an economist. that dismal that we that dismal scientist that we are. point out those are. we point out those realities on the other hand, mark, there's something really deeply philosophical going on here, because a lot of conservatives would say with the overall tax burden in the uk at a 70 year high, that's the share of the whole economy taken by tax, it's like 38. it's the highest it's been since the early 60s. a lot of economists and a lot of tory backbenchers would say. but if you lower taxes,

the moment is a sort of a consent versus a new consensus that we're going into as the institute for fiscal studies the next few years to and be frank, eamonn, we haven't got leaders who are radical enough to try and challenge that. >> just briefly , we i just >> just briefly, we i just always sort of smile . you know, always sort of smile. you know, as a professor of politics, have you how they wheel out you noticed how they wheel out all their icons these all their old icons for these big events? got jeremy big events? we've got jeremy hunt speech today big events? we've got jeremy hunt churchillyeech today big events? we've got jeremy hunt churchill ,lech today big events? we've got jeremy hunt churchill , there'say big events? we've got jeremy hunt churchill , there's a quoting churchill, there's a ladder can climb. ladder everyone can climb. but also safety below which no also a safety net below which no one falls. and all talk of one falls. and all this talk of tax cuts and liz truss, you can guarantee conjuring tax cuts and liz truss, you can guaran'image conjuring tax cuts and liz truss, yo

but the evidence around the impact it would have, institute it would have, the institute for fiscal studiesrt. an independent that really thorough report. an indesaidient that really thorough report. an indesaid this that really thorough report. an indesaid this policy that really thorough report. an indesaid this policy would .hat really thorough report. an indesaid this policy would raise has said this policy would raise 1.3 to £1.5 has said this policy would raise 1.3 to £15 billion in net terms. and i would put that towards more teachers, better standards in our state sector. >> okay. bridget phillipson, shadow secretary of state for education. you'll be making her speech in liverpool today. thanks much indeed for your thanks very much indeed for your time. you. thanks very much indeed for your tim okay, you. thanks very much indeed for your tim okay, it'srou. thanks very much indeed for your tim okay, it's time to go through >> okay, it's time to go through all latest sports news all the latest sports news now. and joined the studio and we're joined in the studio by coyte we a by paul