so orient yourself please, for now, please quote the institute for the study of war. we constantly turn to information from experts who work at this institute. they assume that the russians may launch another series of missile strikes on civilian objects throughout ukraine, since real military success continues to elude the occupiers, that is not their successes on the battlefield and they compensate by shelling civilian objects and simply ukrainian cities and settlements according to the institute of war studies, the president of russia has met with the representative of of children's rights in russia maria lavova belova confirmed the day before that the kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of ukrainian children into russian families, well, in the russian family there are now they are establishing acts there, these children are like our children, ukrainian children whom they stole in essence and they took them out, that is, they deported them to their territory, and now they are trying to integrate them into their society in their

danilov and the statement of the institute for the study of war, if they are combined, what do you thinkral about this possible offensive from which sides and in particular about its speed , about how quickly it can begin. maybe you as a military man, you record some signs that are invisible to us civilians, and good morning studio is definitely so . well, first of all, you need to understand that the enemy has not given up on his strategic goal, namely the capture of ukraine , the destruction of our state, and therefore the offensive looks like an absolutely logical tool for we are talking about the fact that the enemy is concentrating on certain directions, talking about the fact that he will be able to attack ukraine from different sides on all lengths of 1.5 km and 1500 km and uh kilometer front, well, it is difficult to say about them there is simply no such force, but instead they observe the strengthening of enemy groups in the luhansk donetsk direction , the enemy is trying to concentrate its forces in the zaporizhia direction . defense forces . it is much more difficult for him

and you are in the direction of zaporizhzhia . information about what the institute for the study of war

russia wants to disperse ukrainian forces for escalation, putin's plan was revealed at the institute of war studies, the military leadership of the russian federation intends to divert our troops from critical offensive lines and pin them down in the northeastern border areas, but there they believe that the russian invasion from belarus remains extremely unlikely, at the same time the kremlin continues internal information operations against ukraine , american experts say, the russian dictator held a meeting the day before to to discuss the alleged restoration of housing infrastructure in the crimea, belgorod, bryansk and kursk regions after citing shelling by neo-nazi formations. in this way, putin wants to present the war as a threat to the russians in order to gain domestic support for the protracted war , the analysts believe that the participants themselves are ukraine, the eu is arriving in kyiv. the president of the european commission, ursula von derlein, has already arrived. and the head of eu diplomacy, jose borel, the event itself is scheduled for tomorrow, this is the fourth visit of t

of the war in ukraine. from the institute for the study of war, author of several books about russian foreign policy. thanks for being with us. guest: thanks for having me. host: if this war is taking place into phases, what phase are we in right now? guest: there are several key phases and milestones. i want to start with a couple. russia has been trying to control ukraine for years, first, by trying to manipulate ukraine's political and domestic environment. then russia launched a limited military invention in 2014. for the subsequent eight years, russia tried to use that to control ukraine politically. all of those efforts have failed. then russia resorted to full-scale military invasion of ukraine. we have several key phases. the first one was when russia had initiative on the ground from february of last year to july. and that phase, ukraine had defeated their objectives in the more to invade and conquer ukraine in a matter of a few days. ukraine won the battle of kyiv, pushed russia out. it won the battle ofkharkiv and forced russia to change their operational objectives to just focus on easter

of donetsk, studied. thank you for this opportunity to communicate. in the meantime, i will say that the institute of warin is inclined to conduct those who quietly and quietly, so to speak, mobilize . but nevertheless, it will definitely happen. -e, in principle, it is clear that what is meant is that no one even pisses, or they don't piss, in principle, i have such a russian expression . quietly, and sapoi it. that is, something so minutely reminded me that this is called quiet mobilization. well, seriously, the previous mobilization was also quiet. i understand that this is not what it is about, but figuratively speaking, they were quiet because russia did not say anything, it was mobilized on the second mobilization was tried in some er evacuation abroad but nevertheless there was no noise they quietly did what they were told they arrived died and that's all oksana pogomiy is already with us a member of the kherson city council er oksano good morning today i don't know if it's possible with to greet the people of kherson in general. good morning. because i have the impression that some russians make

mykola , and experts from the institute of war studies it is assumed that the russians may launch anotherissile attacks on civilian targets throughout ukraine, as real military success continues to elude us, this is a quote from the occupiers, according to the russian military inflicted another blow on the objects of ukraine since february 16. president putin met with the commissioner for children's rights, maria lvivova belova, on february 16, confirming that he was directly involved in facilitating the deportation and placement of ukrainian children in a russian family. putin also allegedly made a limited concession to a financier group in it was brought to england during a meeting with lviv belova, after promising social support to the mercenaries of this military command, a ukrainian official stated that russian troops aim to capture bakhmut before the first anniversary of the invasion of ukraine which will require much higher rates of advance of the russian troops than those observed for many months. well, yesterday, or the day before yesterday, a scandal already arose when prigozhin

all this indicates, according to the researcher of the institute of war studies, that training in russiahe end, we heard the same tunas who complained that they had been prepared for three months. that is, it was just luck , as we immediately threw into the bakhmut tube, i avdiiv, but according to their educated opinion, in fact , they were not prepared for anything at all. a video of the russian military a marine from vladivostok, ah, nikolay shevchenko, my god, his appearance is not russian, by the way, because you can see russians. they still have a little bit of a different appearance. 29 years old , he was sent to fight and he said that the russian army suffered huge losses under the ugledar, he appeared, he actually appeared, some kind of speech appeared, i don't know what it is, don't wait for me from ukraine if we can listen to him. what does he say about how they fought there under the coal mine, let's see... my name is nikolay valeryovich shevchenko. i was born on november 11, 1993. i served in the bpk. command said first 155 then the translation here is otvetstvenno eh eh eh c

objects of the enemy . systematic training of mobilized russians is considered so by the institute of war studies, analysts point out that russian bloggers have begun to criticize the military leadership and claim that commanders use extreme unfavorable battle tactics due to yesterday's shelling in ukraine, one power unit of the khmelnytsky nuclear power station has stopped, the international atomic energy agency reports, in addition, two of the three operating rivne and south ukrainian npps have reduced the output of electricity, and also because of the shelling and for the sake of security, smart, safe, and most importantly , energy-saving, this is what they say about their house vinnytsia residents, after forming a condominium , take care not only of everything inside, but also of the area nearby, they planted thuja bushes, lilacs and roses, and the neighbors maintain order in a group. the expediency of expenses is discussed during joint meetings. how life in the house has changed, let's look further. ms. halyna has lived in this house for 22 years. she says she remembers well the times of zhe

about this is already our leadership and development partners, the usa, great britain, the institute of war studiesr that we understand all this, what prospects we have today in terms of defense, having received high-precision weapons of long-range free theory and missiles, powerful e tank brigades and tank mechanized units, and these applications in addition, there are other means , first of all, ammunition in huge quantities , which today is critical for us, but also russia, which used to use them immeasurably already. what caused the deficit of hundreds of thousands of a millions of units of rockets, projectiles, small arms of our ammunition, this will give the prospect of today successfully repelling the enemy of all professional offensive units and create prerequisites for students often from the east and half of our country, this is what today stands on the edge of these decisive battles , what our partners are talking about and even about what are they saying today, our representatives at the meeting of the ramstadt group, not the general of the army, would like to ask you what the enemy may

institute. they talk about the revenue piece of the federal budget process, including how and how much the federal government collects in taxes. then, for the institute of the study of war on russia's invasion of ukraine. watch "washington journal" live on c-span, or c-span now, our free mobile app. join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. >> fridays, c-span brings you afterwards. a program were authors our interviewed on their latest books. this week, a critical look at immigration issues. america is watching on c-span. >> congress has nearly 80 new house members. up next, we will hear from some of the lawmakers about their up ring, careers and velocity. >> democrat jasmine crockett represents one of nearly 80 new members of congress. she told c-span about an experience with racism in college that drew her to a career in law and public service and her professional life before running for public service. >> i have been lucky enough to be a practicing lawyer for the last teen years period i know when most people think about lawyers they think about the courtroom. courtroom? i was a courtroom lawyer. civil rights work for th

for a very successful counterattack by the defense forces in the area an analyst of the institute of war studies informs us about this, we see that the situation along the line is not uniform, we will say how do you see it now, please? well, you know, if we go to such temperature indicators , i agree with you. the temperature is rising, the enemy is increasing its efforts, trying to push back our troops and trying to create the prerequisites for going on the offensive in this area . continues to accumulate quite serious resources for us with possible intentions to carry out offensive actions in this direction from this position in the direction of the kharkiv region, possibly with an exit to the raisin region and so on, therefore, we are carefully watching accordingly, the work is being carried out in order to prevent the enemy from advancing in this direction, the situation in the bakhmut area remains very difficult, the enemy has reduced the intensity of his frontal attacks relatively, i say relatively, this does not mean that they are at the seventh city, but he is desperately trying to bypas

so , first of all, i want to discuss this statement with you analysts of the institute for the study of warut the fact that the russian occupiers have launched a large-scale offensive in the luhansk region. how do you assess this? have you noticed this in your analyzes and do you see changes ? maybe in the tactics of the strategy. and what is this? about all the serious movements of the russians there, about the movement of people's equipment, ammunition, spare parts, well , our intelligence will report on this, since this information is very important, it is very sensitive , sensual and it changes constantly , all this data can change every hour, and from the further forecast depends on them, we can only see the plus -minus of the final stages, but now we really see that the russians are intensifying in the eastern direction, there is such a big momentum, that is, another wave is being added, but it is difficult to say whether it is and this is the whole offensive that they planned. is this only part , you know, the first part and the performances, and the rest will be later, we know what

kremlin war bloggers that criticize the russian command for by sending elite troops in a frontal attack, moreover . kremlin bloggers, together with analysts of the american institute for the study of war, believe that the russian military and nationalist community is losing faith in the fact that moscow is capable of launching this decisive offensive. experts note that in the previous stages of the war, and especially the composition of russian units, they restored precisely at the expense of mobilized, but the russians did not were able to prepare people for effective offensive operations, the researcher adds to this the lack of adequate vehicles , ammunition, and other equipment. in addition, we screenshots lack of elite formations for a large-scale offensive this is how the analysts summarize well, let's talk about everything in more detail , contact us military expert oleksandr kovalenko p oleksandr i welcome you on the air, did you see a report about vugledar that your sources know about what happened there well, actually it is happening right now. congratulations. well, in fact, there is much more information , because now they are talking directly about the losses of the

he thinks about a possible attack on these according to the estimates of the american institute for the study of war, in the coming months, russia will probably launch a large-scale offensive in luhansk region, and in donetsk region , it will use defensive-offensive tactics. that the new stage of the russian offensive is already underway and has already begun on soledar and ugledar, ukraine also says that it will soon continue the counteroffensive, so far the russians a hundred thousand mobilized men who are already ready to enter. well, they are entering. there is already a constant movement, but it will be stretched until the end of february. therefore, we must at least try to perform certain actions until the time they enter. i think that during february , as soon as the equipment arrives, our troops will start moving or in the direction of the azov coast or immediately in the crimea in the direction of armyansk, at the same time , according to the expert, if a sufficient number of light armored vehicles and soviet tanks, which are already being supplied to western countries, enter ukraine partne

about the dynamics of hostilities, then here we should agree with the conclusions of the institute for the study of war and there are absolutely reasons for this , that precisely such hostilities, such a nature of hostilities, ensures the stability of our defense not only to the west in the eastern direction and also in the southern direction, because the enemy is forced to attract a large number of resources specifically to take bakhmut , he cannot simply ensure constant pressure on within the framework of the front and significantly weakens its offensive e-e actions its offensive potential in such areas as matchmaking-crime in the avdiivsk on the mariyan direction on the ugledar direction thus, under certain conditions , the defense of bakhmut can be compared with the defense of the surrounded mariupol e-e which the defense of mariupol led to the fact that the enemy lost his combat potential to such an extent that he was unable to continue operations towards odesa . to be considered in approximately the same context, given that the extremely large number of its own units were deployed, the russian ar

been studying the russian army and russian politics for years, even the authoritative institute for the study of warreports are monitored daily in ukraine, was wrong in its forecasts, the reason was that we very carefully studied the russian deployment of forces around ukraine that began at the end of 2021, we looked at how they were located in the south-west of russia and in belarus, and we decided that this does not look like planning a competent invasion of the former american retired military lieutenant colonel oleksandr vidman, who was one of the main witnesses at the hearings on the impeachment of president donald trump due to his phone conversation with president volodymyr zelensky in 2019, says that it is not surprising that analysts were misled by the actions of russia, very few people understand russia sufficiently and even fewer people understand ukraine, i spent three years in moscow working with the russian military and observing how they operate, it was clear to me that not everything will work and that they will not be able to use all operational concepts that they could apply in ukra

this putin is not ready either for a protracted war or for the use of nuclear weapons these conclusions were reached by the american institute for the studywar, analysts in particular emphasized that the head of the kremlin is not ready to launch a nuclear strike due to fear of losing his status, in addition , the report notes that putin covers up his own crimes with so-called scapegoats, in particular , from time to time publicly criticizes regarding the ministry of defense, they declared war against ukraine and uses the state duma to make controversial decisions , all in order to remove responsibility for the assault groups of russia . it has not yet been recorded, however, the kremlin is planning a new offensive on the anniversary of the invasion. both the ukrainian ministry of defense and british intelligence western military analysts are talking about what it will be . the new attack and whether ukraine will have time to prepare for it, the opinions of london experts were collected by our special correspondent svitlana charnetska. they are talking about a new large-scale offensive by russia, and currently all data indicate that it wi

wanted to slow down the supply of tanks to the ukrainian side in particular, analysts of the institute for the study of waruation in the east and the prospect of a further offensive, we will discuss further with a military expert , oleksandr, a military-political commentator of the information resistance group, joins the broadcast kovalenko oleksandr my greetings. good evening. we just spoke with a military officer who is directly in the direction of bakhmut, and which scenario of the development of events in the east are you inclined to, well, judging by all the news that we will now receive from open data? well, what about the russian occupation the troops one way or another but greedily received an order to prevent offensive actions, that is, to intensify their actions, this is a fact, we can talk about it, but did this offensive begin with full understanding, this is another question, and what is its efficiency is also another question why because and the three main bridgeheads behind which, relatively speaking, offensive actions of the russian occupiers can be carried out are the zaporizhia region , p

of military intelligence. naturally, equipment or institutions for the study of war. we don't have any more. institutions have guessed the number of dead ukrainians. no, none of them write. so what am i to the reality of today. if we see, uh, the initiative of uh, rural wives, who came we see the offensive. see about it. one second. nowhere in the european parliament is this mentioned, listen. wait, so if the russians are advancing. and we are talking about the fact that tanks after some time the planes after the end of the war. and who will stand on the battlefield with ukraine, who will stand with the ukrainians, no one is just silence. just in the european parliament you are doing in london? just watch. i propose differently. i suggest that the macron personally lead the foreign legion and go out under li now and the northwest woman. yes, and god says, why would she come herself? no, but she's good. she said volodya who are you that you call me with your finger to accept paris, i don’t want to come to you. at least she answered him decently, but she is not an errand, which the leopard was

of military intelligence. naturally , there are no more turnovers in britain or institutions for the study of war, none. utions, the number of ukrainian dead. no, none of them write. so what am i to the realities of today, if we see the initiative of the russian armed forces that have come, we see an offensive. see it in one second. this is not introduced to parliament nowhere they say that listen. bring it down, if the russians are advancing. and we are talking about the fact that after some time the tanks, the planes after end of the war. and who will stand with ukraine on the battlefield with ukraine? no one so it's silence. just in it in the european parliament. just look, i suggest differently. i suggest that the macron personally lead the foreign legion and go out under the lisichanskaya northwest woman. yes, and god will never come herself, but she's done well. she said volodya who are you that you call me with your finger to accept paris, i don’t want to come to you. at least she answered him decently, but she's not an errand, the crew must be scholz. god take it, and i want pestoria close the fi

is probably creating favorable conditions for the future counteroffensive of kyiv, the american institute for the study of war reports this in its to the current report literally yesterday we mentioned a publication for washington pos where it was said that the american military considers it unrealistic to simultaneously defend bakhmut and start spring counteroffensive and that us officials call on ukraine to decide on priorities, at the same time, the american institute for the study of war believes that ukraine's decision to defend bakhmut is strategically justified because russia has significantly weakened its forces in the direction of bakhmut, what is happening in bakhmut these days, what was happening there watch this video mercenaries wagner tells how they are trying to advance to bakhmut from the eastern side. it is true that what is this ? the bakhmutka river crossing, the ukrainian defense forces after such a night, minus one, asked on this video already the fighters of the third separate assault brigade of the armed forces storm the positions of the russian military near bakhmut and demonstrate how

caller: i was wondering they might consider the first rule of war there at the institute, the institute of the studyave another follow-up. host: what is the first rule of war? caller: if they have rules, but would they consider the first rule of war? there may not be an answer. host: what would be your answer? caller: i would like to know hers. guest: thank you for the question. a couple of points. at the institute, throughout the u.s., national security, we study issues through the open source data. we also have a program that is focused on the war studies that educates americans in war, understanding the war. i don't think we have a written rule at the isw that can be quantified as a first rule of war, however, as we have seen in the past 12 months, there are some fundamental rules of war. one is understanding yourself, understanding your enemy, understanding your own capabilities, understanding the capabilities of your adversary. that is one of the key rules that vladimir putin has broken by both, overestimating russia's cabability, underestimating ukraine's capability, underestimating western su

well, the day before, i will remind you that the american institute for the study of war stated that another large-scale offensive by russian troops had begun in luhansk region . this is confirmed by the ukrainian authorities. well, what about the offensive in luhansk region and the situation in other the russian military and the so-called warlords themselves tell about the areas of the front. look at the resources claim about the successes in the direction of svatovo, crimes and capture by the russians by the invaders of part of the village of novoselivsk in recent days, more and more videos are appearing in pro-russian media, allegedly taken during the offensive in luhansk oblast, according to one of the so-called warlords , a hurinich is working in the composition of the bc soviet self-propelled rocket launcher designed for demining. military group of the lpr and they show a video of the equipment moving towards the flint, and the wagnerites complain that every five-story building in bakhmut is defended by the soldiers of the armed forces of ukraine like a five-story fortress. the

of world war two. to do this, asked our very own rob santino. dr. santino is the executive director of the institute for the study of war and democracy, as well as the museum's samuels. murray stone, senior historian at the national world war two museum. and i'll beat him to the punch line and say he's got the title on staff. he's an award winning military historian, published ten books primarily on the german army, or the very smart he's taught for three decades, including stints at west point and the us military academy and the u.s. army war college. he first came to the museum and 2012 for our international conference. then he came in 2013 for our international conference. then he was one of our featured tour historians at the 70th anniversary of d-day crews. then he came to our 2014 international conference. but as he always reminds me, he did not come to our 2015 international conference because we didn't invite him that year. better yet, in 2016, we invited him to join the staff as the museum's senior historian. and we couldn't be luckier to have top notch scholar who guides our content, but also a great gu

of the war. let's bring in retired four-star general jack keane. he's chairman of the institute for the studywar and a fox news senior strategic analyst. general keane, welcome. so let's, we've got a year into the war. what lessons have we learned, and what to do they tell us about what comes next? >> well, certainly we all welcome success that ukraine has had, and i think the center of gravity for that success has been the iron will of its soldiers and its people. and certainly the u.s.-led western coalition has been providing all the arms and ammunitions. but also while that is commendable in terms of the support provided, we have actually handcuffed the success of the ukrainian forces because we slow-rolled so much of weapons that they needed. we sent them in their piecemeal, and they arrived mainly after the fact. as an example, the ukrainians began an offensive in july after russia's offensive had talled in thalled in the east. and they wanted to take advantage of that. and they had some success. the russians retreated south of kharkiv, and they were able to take kherson city, the only r

25s and trucks for the production of more urgently needed equipment from the report of the institute for the study of war, and now we are in touch with oleksandr olesyan, a military spectator, oleksandr, good from the last time. what have you heard? russia intends to absorb elements of the defense industry in belarus, because lukashenko will allow it, well, there are big inaccuracies, i can tell you that as a person who worked in the field of nuclear power and provided consulting services to many directors of military plants, in fact, it is not russia that wants to swallow the belarusian plant, but lukashenko wants to promote the products of belarusian enterprises to the russian market . the production of these factories is being promoted from africa to latin america, and they existed mainly at the expense of the budget, they were mostly all in debt. counting pensioners, teachers , budget workers, and finally, lukashenko to say that russia, suppressed by sanctions, places very large orders for belarusian military products, it is not necessary to reprofile. we only have military factories that can be equi

friday morning, the cato adjuster -- institute talks about the revenue peaks of the federal budget process. then the russia fellow at the institute for the study of war. >> watch "washington journal" live on c-span or c-span now, our mobile app. >> join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. >> fridays c-span rings you afterwords from book tv. this week, we take up look at the immigration issues at the southern border of the united states. watch afterwords friday on c-span. >> listening to programs for c-span radio app just got easier. listen to washington journal daily. listen to c-span any time. just tell your smart speaker to play c-span radio. >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government, funded by these television companies and more, including sparklight. the greatest town on earth is the place you call home. as sparklight, it is our home too. sparklight is working to keep you connected. sparklight supports c-span as a public service, along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy.

crime zone, they have allegedly started new operations to the northwest of svatovo , the american institute for the study of warut this. in luhansk region, what is happening on the front line at this time, we show next the capture of belorovka by russian troops , the soldiers of the armed forces of ukraine claim in these shots that it is fake posted on the social network as of february 6, 2023 regarding fake statements by the aggressor country of the russian federation, but they took control of their e-e under their control the settlement of belohorivka of the luhansk region. we ask you not to believe this propaganda. the settlement of belohorivka was me and will be under the control of ukraine, our spirit is indomitable and this is also luhansk region this is what the russian military destroyed novoselivsk in the swativ district looks like forever , the buildings have been torn down and the earth has burned out , meanwhile, about the alleged destruction of ukrainian strongholds districts and several brigades under bakhmut report wagnerites share a video of one of the captured strongholds on social networks new

good morning, let's start by discussing the latest reports of the american institute for the study of warreported to quote the leading russian regular troops to the front line under bakhmut delayed the culmination of the wagner group's offensive, so the fighting for the city continues the offensive of the wagner group reached its climax, but the russian command transferred a sufficient number of troops to thus prevent the general climax of the offensive on bakhmut, which is still ongoing, the commander of the ukrainian unit operating in bakhmut, denys yaroslavskyi, confirmed that highly qualified russian regular troops are now reinforcing the assault units of the private military campaign wagner . well, american analysts also do not predict the imminent seizure of bakhmut by russian troops, although the ukrainian command may decide to retreat to avoid significant losses what do you think about the prospect of the ukrainian military leaving bahmut? is this possible? is this well, will this lead to any further offensive of the russian forces, the prospect of bahmut in these hands. he will r

to purchase components for attack drones from the usa, this is stated in the report of the institute for the study of warysts note that 82% of the shaheds shot down in ukraine had components from america, although most western companies denied their direct sale to russia, or iran, everything is fine, the president of the united states, joe biden stated that the downed reconnaissance bullet will not worsen relations between washington and beijing, but the incident does not contribute to their improvement, as is known, the other day in the united states, a chinese spy bullet was shot down that flew over the southern in carolina, the ministry of foreign affairs of the people's republic of china announced its dissatisfaction and protest, assuring that the bullet was meteorological . we made it clear to china what we are going to do, they understand our position. wounded in krasnohorivka, a man threw a grenade in the direction of the seller, the donetsk regional prosecutor's office said that there was a conflict between a street seller of dairy products and a local resident near the store the latter accused t

do not miss the events and people of the week on central television, experts from the american institute for the study of waria had seized the initiative in the combat zone , and now they are seriously discussing it in kiev itself. can events in ukraine go according to the korean scenario, does this mean that the west has already given up on the idea of ​​fighting to the bitter end (the tragedy of kostomarov's novel). why did the famous figure skater, who ended up in the police with pneumonia, still have to be amputated in both feet, artificial intelligence throws a challenge to all of humanity, the neural network created by american scientists can do everything that an ordinary person can do. really very soon people will simply become superfluous cogs of civilization, which will be controlled by artificial intelligence. it will be yours central television tomorrow at 19:00 on ntv nikita panfilov obstetrician premiere from monday at 20:00 on ntv delicious, period. did you know that tinkoff investments has a social network for investors, matvey subscribed to investors with high returns and earns as they do .

the interests of america . a possible attack on russia may take place in luhansk region in the next six months , such forecasts were voiced at the american institute for the study of war, the institute's expert george baros told according to analysts, russia does not have enough combat capabilities for a large offensive simultaneously in several directions, so it is forced to determine priority areas, according to our assessment , the russians are preparing the conditions for an offensive in donbas , more unbelievably in the luhansk region, we know this because the russians are now deploying groups that previously trained in belarus, for example of the second motorized rifle guards division is being returned back to russia and back to ukraine in the luhansk region. we also know that the russians are placing only of their best units the 144th motorized rifle division is operating there and also some airborne forces we also think it would make sense for the russians to try to attack in that area we predict that will most likely happen over the next six months this is our current prediction i know several people have reported that it could happen in the next two or three

chistyakov and we start with the main thing that on the front, according to the information of the institute for the study of warthe russians are planning to carry out a decisive offensive operation on in donbas, in february or march, for this reason, the occupiers are trying to disperse ukrainian forces in the northeastern directions , in particular, on the svatov crime line. there , the enemy is unsuccessfully trying to restore lost positions, as before fierce battles are being fought on the bakhmut bridgehead, the enemy does not stop breaking through our defenses and surround the city from the north to the south in these areas the zaherbniks concentrated a large number of manpower , but the ukrainian defenders give them a decent rebuff and successfully repulse enemy attacks, the enemy is actively developing in certain directions is preparing for the offensive, regardless of heavy losses , continues to attempt offensive actions in the limansk , bakhmut , avdiyiv , and novopavlov areas. the kremlin dictator gave the order to his troops to completely capture the territories of donetsk and luhansk regions by the

groups and weapons to the east of ukraine, our intelligence reports that the analyst of the institute for the study of war did not find any evidence that the occupiers have restored sufficient combat power, so noted putin has again overestimated the capabilities of his military and most likely the offensive will end prematurely with the spring rains this week , the russian occupiers threw all their forces into the breakthrough of ukrainian defense and the surrounding area, the deputy minister of defense of ukraine, hanna malyar, informed about this. according to her, the russians launched a powerful offensive in the lyman direction, thanks to the resilience of our soldiers, the invaders did not achieve success . we are on the buried igor we wish him health congratulations if we talk and try to analyze the following actions of the enemy until the end of the month let's say this is it possible in the perspective of two months in your opinion will the enemy concentrate their attention only on donbas and will they be able to achieve the plans reported by ukrainian intelligence , namely to seize donetsk and lu

of prisoners had been completely stopped, although after this report, the analysts of the institute for the study of warport that as soon as everything wagner will continue to recruit people in prisons, although he will do it in much smaller volumes, to date he has managed to get thousands of prisoners, but we are now observing that the flow of those who want to him has stopped, this is due to extrajudicial executions and the fact that this did not happen to the ministry of defense and already this week they started. i don't know how to use the verb or say they are recruiting or hiring or calling . first party out of 56 prisoners, she went with the ministry of defense from the zone in the kemerovo region. the ministry of defense. i don't know what language it offers . we haven't figured it out yet. it was simply taken away to serve. and all of them promise one firm participation in the hostilities of freedom in six months. freedom and pardon, and they also promise to return and take people already involuntarily. in june-july, almost two and a half thousand prisoners signed a contract. six months later,

well, i read the recent release of the institute for the study of war, there are different analytics,y that it looks like it is not there, but you know us. to be honest, i am skeptical about such things. they already started telling us somewhere in principle in may and june that they are running out of shells, you understand. and let's put it this way, i didn't feel it on my neck because in our country artillery was falling and falling just like we are told that rockets are running out. but to be honest, i i think that it is unlikely that anyone will fail to tell, for example, there in the dnipro near that destroyed house that they are already running out, that the russians have one less missile left , so there is no need to count these things and expect that the war will end because the russians have something cholera won't end there, they don't want to, so i emphasize once again that they have such capabilities, but to analyze such possible tactical actions that the russians can take in one direction or another, of course, you need to have more intelligence information about changin

we know that the analysts of the institute for the study of war wrote in their recent report that these are all the conversations and in general the signs that we see of an invasion of the northeast of ukraine, that is, in the chernihiv region of the sumy region, that this is probably an effort the russians disperse the efforts of the ukrainian military so that they keep some part of the combat-ready forces here to repel the aggressor, they could not transfer these reinforcements to the donbass, this is all that is objectively known regarding the intensity of shelling of the border communities of our region, for example, the intensity of this fell significantly if in the summer we had about 200 shots from various types of weapons per day and this was every day on a bad day the russians could pour 150 shells on some one village there are shellings, but somewhere there once a week, once every 10 days, here we are already in the space of assumptions, but we can assume that they, like the ukrainian military, are already experiencing a shortage of ammunition, yesterday there was a report of

the president's office, mykhailo podolyak, as well as the opinions and experts of the american institute for the study of war activity of the occupiers along the matchmaking-crime line has noticeably increased over the past week, along with this , american analysts doubt that the russian offensive will be successful, noting that another russian failure at the front may open a window of opportunity for ukrainian troops to carry out a counter-offensive. how russia was preparing for a new offensive in ukraine and what to expect together with experts , daria analyzed. in february , the russians are preparing, we still expect statements in february that russia is preparing for a new offensive, appearing during the last few months, in particular, in december minister of defense oleksiy reznikov in an interview with zagardian suggested that the enemy will start a new wave of offensive in february during a press conference a few days ago, he confirmed the assumption after the defeat in the kherson direction on september 21 , russian president putin announced a partial mobilization , they planned to call up 300,000 p

situation in the city near the black sea, and information from our partners, analysts of the american institute for the study of warey believe that russia is incapable of conducting several large offensive operations, analysts predict that decisive russian offensive operations are unlikely to be directed in particular at the city of zaporozhye, since the invaders continue to prepare before the offensive in the west of the luhansk region, a isw continues to observe the transfer of russian military equipment and elite units, as well as the preparation logistical support in the occupied luhansk region, which confirms the western ukrainian and russian forecasts regarding the offensive to the west of the luhansk region , i.e. bakhmut, russian troops are also intensifying attacks on bakhmut, ignoring the front around donetsk , the ukrainian military reports that the russian troops have not formed a sufficiently powerful strike group to carry out an offensive on zaporozhye the direction is stated in the report well , we remind you that on the espresso tv channel, together with our friends from outpost ua, we will introduc

institute. they talk about the revenue piece of the federal budget process, including how and how much the federal government collects in taxes. then, for the institute of the study of war on russia's invasion of ukraine. watch "washington journal" live on c-span, or c-span now, our free mobile app. join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. >>

well, what is the second army, where did it come from, the second army of the world, and there is some institute for the study of warrently rating the ukrainian army, by the way rose by seven positions, let's go up to 15, and everyone remained in second place here, this is just a statistic here, it seems to me, it seems to me, that's what the second army of the world looks like to me, i talked to my brothers who , uh, all their lives, ah, military personnel who have experience and practical and theoretical and generally international experience, they say, well, 2-3 sundays, and well, if well, what do they say? we are nasty there, and we are fighting for two or three months. russian america launched an atomic bomb. america on russia. such stupid jokes. it's been two or three weeks and we don't have that great power. these are not my words, because i am giving you the words of a person who is competent in this matter . they are just terrorists. they are terrorists, of whom there are many. let's say so they have some kind of advantage, this is what the guys told me now. i say that they do not have such a thing, that th

of people and they will be able to afford to do what for a long time the analysts of the institute for the study of wared states of america came to the conclusion that russia could not prepare the mobilized properly in particular, those who are fighting near bakhmut. but in general, in donbas, they are talking about the fact that they are abandoning forces and reserves that are not quite ready for military operations, etc. this is the limit where the ukrainian army must take into account the fact that most of these people are not sufficiently prepared on the one hand, and on the other on the other hand, do not lose the real assessment of the situation when these troops and the number of combatants are much more and they can cause really big losses in the ukrainian army when we are talking about a large number of mobilized and we are talking about the ukrainian army we must not forget that well, we often talk about how we have a regular army , and the russians are mobilized, and due to this we have an advantage . military

and not about the aristovych of culture , everyone is always on a piece of paper, and the institute for the study of wary assume that all those statements and the cancellation of the treaty on the recognition of moldova's sovereignty are not for nothing, and those statements of russia that said ukraine is about to will start a special operation in transnistria, but they think that maybe kremuth is really preparing serious provocations in transnistria against moldova well, of course, how will they be able to do it geographically, they need to somehow get there from the cold well, it's not easy to do because there is ukrainian territory around, well, but nevertheless it is interesting that arestovych immediately gives an interview on russian channels where he says that yes, ukraine can capture the dniester in three days. and you know that interviews are growing not only on russian tv channels for example, from the interview of nataliya moseichuk and the interview is signed as the year of the arrestee, that is, i think that this year is the year of the ukrainian people , the ukrainian achievements of ordin

britain and other there intelligence british intelligence american intelligence the growth of the institute war studiesuding american ones, say that 97% of the russian armed forces are concentrated there, which can conduct combat operations, well, 97 or 90 , there are 6.5, it is not fundamental, but it can be said that now the entire russian army is on the front line, which can conduct combat operations in the rear now there are only those units left that are supposed to protect and protect these military units of theirs. therefore, they no longer have anything to strengthen. it is all they have. now you are in ukraine. my colleague correctly says that defeat in this war will mean defeat. putin, but not a political one. and this will be his physical death. i think that he will not be forgiven for losing in this war, so he will drag on as much as he can. well, and involving other countries. well, i think you will ask about this what countries he wants to involve. today they can get out, yes, in your opinion , he wants to attract now how much do you hint at china or not only china well, only i am hinting

to carry out an emergency shutdown of its nuclear power plants , the analyst of the american institute for the study of war writes about this in his report. provoke radiological contamination in our country, as well as destroy substations that leave ukrainians without power, in their opinion , attacks on three ukrainian nuclear power plants will cause the damage to ukraine is many times greater than the last few massive rocket attacks. 10 new functional beds were received by the gorodyshchen hospital in a small town in cherkasy region. the medical equipment has come a long way. it was handed over by volunteers from taiwan. from the first days of russia's full-scale invasion of ukraine, a team was created to help our country in distant taiwan, initiated by the family of ukrainian olga kulish and her husband lin.ua the first humanitarian cargoes and ivans arrived in ukraine a few months after the start of the great war, they were transferred to the de-occupied territories of kyiv region, and now a new address appeared on the map of the taiwanese aid team in ukraine, 10 modern medical beds were transferred to