pre-minister over at td securities talked about a serious inversion, perhaps a greater inversion thatw within 2000. this is where the two year yield is substantially higher than the 10 year yield. what does each basis point mean of larger inversion going forward? what does that mean in the real world of not trying to lose money in fixed income? jeffrey: the first part of that of what it means, you are seeing a bit of that movement in reaction to today's print. bigger increases in the short end, -- in the long end, the flattening of the curve, is the market expecting the fed to tighten into a recession. this is not a new expectation, but a reaction in today's data where they just said the labor markets are hot. the fed has to do more. if you look at what is priced in the market any forward basis, it has the one year fed funds rate to years out from now lower than where it is expected in one year. what is that saying? it is saying the market is expecting to push us into a recession. that is the same thing when you talk about a inverted yield curve. interest rates are going to inflect fe

what does that inversion mean. we have seen it cool down to 50 basis points in inversion. crude oil is up. this oil market is screamingly tight, however gas season in america is crumbling, down 14% last week. we made it through parity and the eu expected to cut their growth forecast to 1.4%, does that add to narrative on the downside for europe? dani: i saw some data that gas demand in the u.s. was sinking lower than the pandemic. it wasn't the pandemic keeping people inside, it is high prices. let's get to some of our reporters around the world. and a karen in hong kong with the latest on inflation, garfield reynolds will take us through the euro parity bridge. manus: annabelle droulers is in hong kong, she will look at these out of season moves from central banks around the world. after a four decade high, the red-hot u.s. inflation print raises the prospect of a 100 basis point hike. the swaps market has equal odds of 75 4100 basis we hike -- of a 75 or 100 basis point hike. meanwhile the bank of canada did raised by a hundred basis points. let's get to enda curran, the

as an economist, we focus more on the three month, 10 year inversion. that is not inverted yet because the fed has more wood to chop. they still have more room to go in terms of rate hikes. we are keeping a close eye on that. to come attends, as you mentioned, it was far more inverted in the years passed or decades past rather so keeping an eye on that but we want to see how long that persists. we have done a little work on that and it tends to show you need to cede twos intends persist for about two to three weeks on a negative territory for it to be a strong signal. even then, you are talking about a recession within the next six to 12 months, not necessarily tomorrow. kriti: let's talk about the economic signal. you have a housing market that is being powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. -- you have a housing market seeing boom after boom, a labor market extreme he, and a liquidity issue that is really plaguing the markets but also at the same time with quantitative tightening taking place. out of the three issues

importantly, 2/10 spread goes to greater inversion off of this data. a new, wider inversion.athan: yields down about a basis point. tom: speaking to dr. dudley this afternoon, mohamed el-erian. we start with edward hyman from evercore isi. we are thrilled that he could join us this morning. your research note is classic, things rolling over. you harken back to cj lawrence. m2 is absolutely plunging. it seems out of another time and place. explain the importance of m2, the monetary aggregate, is plunging down near zero. ed: the growth is plunging, but you are right to keep up on this. last year, money growth was about 30%, which is why inflation picked up so much. you could put it to different things, stimulus checks, quantitative easing, but now that has come down. i think that explains why inflation is slowing. right now we have about three months before the funds rate will be over the bond yield, which would be a classic inverted yield curve. you already have the 2/10 inverted. it looks to me as though the economy is doing fine right now, but it will slow, inflation will sl

you know, when you talk about inversions, it sounds like what's an inversion. it's probably confusing, sometimes. but that's all it is. that's an inversion right there. top of that fog down to the bottom, which looks like it's about 607 100 ft. something like that. so that's the inversion of the top of this. this fog deckchair and so that inversion is going to stretch out as we go into tomorrow. um and on on wednesday as well into thursday in that causes down that helps the firefights up in yosemite that helps air quality around here and cools the temperature, so we've got a good little plan here. we've had a couple of days now it's going to cool off. i'll see you back here with full forecast just a few minutes. okay see americans are traveling this summer by the latest sub variant appears to be more contagious than the last we call it oleyumi. you call it california. our land, our culture, our people once expansive, now whittled down to a small community. only one proposition supports california tribes like ours. while providing hundreds of millions in yearly

are they happy with the inversion of the curve? probably not, but are they surprised? don't think they can be surprised that the yield curve is inverted right now, because even their own dot plot has a kink in it and says 2024 will be high yields, but the long-term rate will be lower than where they think they will guide to. kriti: mike, i'm curious about the rate cut dynamics. we are talking about the rate hikes and the unstoppable inflation. calls are the recession could be shallow or a very deep one. a very deep recession, what are the odds that the federal reserve takes a massive u-turn and you start to see rate cuts, perhaps stopping some of that qt? mike: keeping an eye on the unemployment rate and you have to go up half a percentage point unemployment over three months average to get to the point where you are in recession. if we see that then the fed will start talking about cutting rates. the question is, how far do they go in cutting rates? that's just a guess at this point, because they wouldn't know how long it would last or how deep it would be. the proble

you can see that inversion on the left side of your screen. you can see another bout of inversion, but if you take the chart further back, you can also see it protecting what happened in the early 1990's where we had an eight-month-long recession in the u.s., too. markets turning sharply versus rapidly shifting focus with the process of inflation turning interest rate hikes, such tightening might conflict. these are the rate decisions we have had in the past 24 hours. new zealand and korea were on the program yesterday discussing all that. david: chile was out with 75 earlier on. singapore off cycle move. the exchange rate mechanism effectively tightening policy, which is why we are seeing some strength coming through. also coming through, not so much central banks, but data that indicates what the rba might do. the unemployment rate in australia -- the median estimate was 3.8 percent. the lowest estimate was 3.7 percent. what we got was 3.5%, the lowest pretty much since records were kept. your three-year yield is now north of 3%, up about te

there have been inversions. i joke about the market at large, the s&p 500, has probably signaled 10 of the last two recessions. you don't always have recession after an inversion in the yield curve. banks will continue to make good money as long as the short end rises. there's a lot of lending tied to the prime rate which improves immediately when the fed rate goes up. they do not make quite as much on the spread. they would be happy making loans but they will not make loans unprofitable either. i think they are more -- banks should be worried more about the overall economy, the pace of low growth and show that pullback -- sonali: beyond loan growth, you look at how the big trading firms have traded over the last months and the decline has not been as drastic as the first three months this year. at the same time, goldman sachs has now fallen below $100 billion in market value. it is trading at 92% of book value. do think that is warranted? stephen: no. i think -- and not just goldman which we happen to have a ho

because of the shallowing of the inversion. and really, you know, when you think about summer in the bay area, really, it's all about the inversion. it's about right. that's what makes our fog. if it weren't for inversion, we wouldn't have induction. fog or summertime fought. so we're that inversion is important to kind of how the climate here works. and with that in mind, we're going to see fog now. just trapped back here . kind of right back against the coast, and we're not going to see that big push inland. and so as you would expect that cool, moist air is not getting out past berkeley or out past albany and so you're seeing temperatures inland. ratchet up and they will. it's not gonna be hot tomorrow but low nineties were upper eighties. today there's the fog coming through the san bruno gap. that's sfo, obviously and you can see it's pretty deep, right. if you look at you know the percent bruno mountain 1000 ft. couple 115 100 ft. maybe the top of that cloud fog bank by tomorrow night at this time that fog bank is going t

un-inversion in q2 is very likely. looking at europe as well. we are looking at possibly an event driven recession risk if the russian got is completely cut off. that would be an instant recession in europe which would mean that european growth and global growth predictions would end up getting revised. dani: let's focus in on europe. you mentioned it. we saw bdp spreads start to whiten the other -- start to widen yesterday. the cash market closed when we got this announcement that draghi had resigned. that resignation was rejected. tell me your fears in terms of a debt crisis in europe. if politics is an additional stressor to italy alongside the ecb attempting to tighten policy. semin: obviously, ecb is aware that the market is expecting them to deliver. they know that the markets will test that. the way i see things, we were already seeing 8.6% cpi. we are expecting to see a further increase to 10% later in the air. we are hearing from turbine labor unions that they are asking for a percent rate increases. inflationary pressures are so strong

curve inversion. it is starting to come together in a more pronounced way. tom: i have jp morgan, goldman sachs and others giving us the fear of 120 oil, and edward morse absolutely crushed that. jonathan: that gives you an idea of the degree of uncertainty, the ranges that why four people in this commodity market. muhammad ali puts it well for us. mohamed el-erian said we are trying to internalize two things, price slow down and the fed hiking into it. the extent this fed is willing to go, i don't know. tom: kailey leinz, where are we this morning, 50 or 75 beeps? kailey: i know you like to write out the fed minutes, but this could be crucial given how much change there is just before the june meeting when they made the decision to go 75. what indicators will they be looking at as we consider 50 or 75? powell has said it could go either way. tom: a snappy recovery yesterday afternoon. jonathan: and it has not held. we are down .4% on the s&p. while equities recovered, high yield spreads were wider again for a fifth straight session. 1.0185 on euro-dollar. y

treasury yields have dropped following an inversion in the 2-10 yield curve. gas prices take a breather. european natural gas prices halting their rally after norway's government intervened and germany took steps to ease its supply crunch. alix steel is off today. welcome to bloomberg markets. i feel like i'm hosting the show with you and every day i do a new piece of history is written. that seems to be the case in the u.k.. guy: we may see more later in the u.k.. we are watching what is happening. we need to figure out whether we are late cycle or recessionary. maybe we are starting to get some clues. the index declined down to 55.3. the economies were looking for 54 on the nose, so a number that is slightly better than anticipated but still a slowdown. this is not the kind of slow down we were looking for, quite a good number in terms of what is happening in the service sector in the united states. there was this idea we would slow down to a sustainable pace with the services sector, but that would have inflationary impact. the index falling to its lowest l

tom: greater curve inversion is interesting, and for the pros, each nuance of curve inversion matters. it has given ways ever so slightly before we dive into the number 10 downing street. the yen is jonathan: giving way. we are looking for a statement at noon. jonathan: will get the latest report is 40. we can do that with lizzy burden at number 10 downing street. i want to come straight to you. the pressure is building for yesterday. what is change this morning? lizzie: there was a business as usual cabinet meeting. a newly repointed, less than 48 hours in the post, and his colleagues to him that he needed to root -- resigned, and that was the turning point where boris johnson realized he needed to do the thing he taught he would never possibly come. we didn't see a typical boris johnson thing, but it is almost elbow to elbow in the press. on downing street, the crowds are gathering beyond the security gates at the end, and there is no sign of a podium yet, but the speeches expected in the next couple of hours, there's also a report that or chanson has been to see the queen as a cour

inversion we have seen so far aside from some of those many inversions earlier in the year. that is a big signal and that is the market saying we are afraid that this hiking cycle is going to take us into recession. here is what i would say about a recession. we may find out at the end of july that we have another negative gdp print for the second quarter, which would be technically a recession, but it is an odd one. it is one where the labor market is so strong, we are creating jobs. we got a consumer that is still spending and maybe is frustrated by inflation, but has not stopped spending because of it. so the fear of recession did not hurt demand to a point enough to bring that inflation number down now what i think the market is grappling with is is there a classic recession coming at some point, perhaps in 2023, that does actually affect the labor market, does bring demand down, but it takes care of that inflation problem? it is the path to fighting this inflation a monster that we are all trying to figure out. emily: speaking of that monster, how much of a change is so

the deepest inversion since 2007. what does this mean in terms of how it is infecting the fed rhetoric? they don't want to see this. they don't want to see if -- a deep curve inversion for a long time for it that is where they pivoted yesterday. tom: no question about that. for those of you on radio, images of the american flag, the palestinian flag, the president meets with mr. abbas. comments -- it is a busy schedule for the president and israel. now, palestine, the delicacies, and then i think it is a good 700 miles to jetta. it is not riyadh, and those of you who know saudi one-to-one, it is a commercial port. it is one of the largest ports in the world. it is on the red sea. they will check in their two jet -- to jetta. the dollar strength is resilient. what am i watching? anything in a significant market . all in all, i would say the euro is on parity watch. 1.0040. next week, the ecb. stay with us. this is bloomberg. millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are sav

guess what, frank, today you had the inversion in the 2 to 5-year for the very first time. i think it's obvious to us that the recession conversation shouldn't be about one in 2023, it should be about one in 2022 and in fact if we're not technically in one right now. >> just to note, joe is not confirming or deny his trip to abiza. are you concerned about a recession? are you seeing data points that lead you to believe a recession is on the way? what are you seeing right now? >> absolutely, frank i have said for weeks i have said i thought it was 70/30 that we're in a recession right now right now we're in a recession, i believe. europe is basically -- the lights are flashing in europe, frank, that we are in a recession in europe. i think it's likely we are in one here to joe's point, though, i'm not all gloom and doom there are possibilities out there that the fed will not continue to just slam interest rates higher now, they have misjudged inflation and we can talk about that ad nauseam. there will be textbooks written about it and not just the fed, of course, congress an

tom: we currently have the yield inversion fairly pronounced. you were talking about european yields in the last minute. when it comes to the yield curve in the u.s. house billion is the inversion we are seeing as the recession risk indicator? paul: i tend to think of the yield curve as being a scent of rather than a predictor or cause of recession. but i think we are at an interesting point for many reasons. i think the economy is slowing. i think there is a reasonable risk of recession in the u.s., less so than in europe. i think the inversion of the yield curve is coming at the moment that we are looking at the recession and maybe we have -- i have been calling for long bond yields to go higher for some time but i think we have seen the peak in those long yields and i think the markets are going to be looking with trepidation towards the risks of a recession and i think that will be a feature in the coming months and quarters. tom: a peak in long yields. the market is pricing in cuts as soon as the first quarter of next year from the federal

as you get inversion with a leveling of the word in the entire yield curve, that is being -- jonathannot get there because you interrupted. tom: i guess that. jonathan: will beget 75 basis points by the end of this month? tom: you think so, how? jonathan: we will see. credit spreads are higher. we would mike dowell to talk to us about that -- michael darda to talk about that. the year end forecast from hp cs, they are looking for 75. they go mildly bullish in german 10-year. here is the why. this rate hiking cycle does not go beyond this year. it will be shorter and it will be a lot lower. from the european central bank, a thorough of 103 .20. tom: the partition of the yield space is looking across nominal and at inflation-adjusted economics and folding it in to your belief in investment. joining us now is michael darda, chief economist. on fire the last time we talked about the moment we are living in. are we in a nominal or inflation-adjusted space? which should we study? michael: i think investors should be watching the front edge of the inflation trade here which is collapsing. th

manus: does that lead to further inversion of the yield curve?ne view would be at the short end the fed will remain undeterred, and further inversion expected. will that happen in the bond markets? deepak: absolutely, we will get into a technical recession, and there could be an inversion of the yield curve, absolutely possible. the bond markets are telling us about a fed u-turn, a pause earlier than what the market expects. that is what the bond architect telling us. dani: i do not know if i believe it, can the fed really pause or u-turn? if what they are trying to do, they are trying to crimp demand and get it in line with supply. once they do that, why would they turn? deepak: because it is having an effect. if you look at the data points, it tells us demand is coming down. because of consumers spending, the fed's thank you to will be slower, and consumer confidence at a 40 year low. think the fed is achieving what went to achieve. there is a way to go but the market, we are wealth managers. we look at these as opportunities. be greedy when th

that is what we are certain to see, much more pressure on the curve inversion. david: i was going to ask the opposite. is there anything we can hear from the fed, bark, -- mark, that would lead to east of the curve? -- steepening to the curve? >> yes. if they come out and say they are really worried about inflation and they need more work to do, we may be talking about 100 basis point hikes rather than 75 basis point hikes. there is room for jerome powell to be hawkish if he wants to be. if he cites inflation as being the biggest enemy the fed. >> mark, thank you, mliv strategist there, have vonnie quinn and the -- in york. >> china says it is seriously prepared for house speaker nancy pelosi flight to -- visit to taiwan, they have said -- a staff of said she is not without a visit but decisions have not been made. the trip could be days after a expected call between present biden translator jinping. -- chinese leader xi jinping. >> governing council member said that the rate increase in september needs to be quite significant, then are trying to reduce inflatio

further curve inversion. -27.lfway to pre--- pre-a miserable -- pr -- we are still not through the parity watch, 1.00. the american audience including a dummy like me needs to understand the stress of mr. macron. robert m cole is up 700 10% off the moving averages study back two years. he is up 103% since the ukraine evasion. -- invasion. jonathan: i would throw in chancellor schultz and prime minister draghi. a tough winter is the base case. tom: correlations in place, -52 on futures. subadra rajappa joining us. what's the correlation that matters to you, only -- not only in rates but outside rates. subadra: everything is a correlated market. what is happening in europe is impacting the u.s. inflation is a global phenomena. what we are seeing now is -- slow motion where in the u.s. you see a steady rise in inflation, the grad acting efficient -- acting aggressively and then a sharp inversion of the yield curve. the markets trying to price in a higher probability of a recession, leading to potentially fed funds ra

absolutely stunning how we revisit new, greater inversion. jonathan: what i see in economic data in europe, it is dreadful. pmi a downside surprised here that is not what you want to see the day after a for the basis point hike. socgen still calling this one unbuyable potentially through the rest of the year. tom: that is on the gdp as well they have become dependent perhaps after what we saw yesterday. obviously, the market not impressed. the surge in euro terms right around. it is about economic data, wrapped against, as lagarde mentioned yesterday, original politics. tom: -- jonathan: isn't it good news we stop pretending what will happen in europe? tom: you know where i am on this. jonathan: what do you make of snap chat coming out and saying no forecast, no guidance, we do not know where we are going either? tom: i just said to matt miller that the conflation of tech is tech is ohlone. there is profit-making tech and story stocks. jonathan: can we take a macro signal from the outcome of snap chat and earnings? kailey: you might be able t

that curve inversion, 19 basis points, .9% points. i want to mention, italian spreads did widen out off of draghi. is it a resignation? lisa: he tried to resign. the president rejected it. they are trying to figure out what is next. it has been a crisis in italy, which raises huge concerns for ecb and has to face the prospect of being accused of political --. tom: hopefully, we went for a wider spread there. italy, the takeaway of the german yield is more grim. dollar resilient, 108.34. sterling, 118.40. an important conversation out in atlanta, the fighting texas add gees -- aggies, victoria green joins us. victoria, it is nice to talk to somebody that actually knows how important texas a and m football used to be. somebody at that game is going to go, i need to reallocate. i need to have courage to be in the market. how do you reallocate amid this chaos? victoria: you are looking for defense still. it's not time to buy the stuff sold off the hardest. i think as earnings are all in, you can see they are all mixed at best. unitedhealt

tom: and we are seeing that inversion again. mike, to bring you back in, you talked about inflationary risk and how you may start to see the fed ease off if inflation continues to subside around the edges. recessionary risks, what is your sense of the fed to look through that weaker economic data to get back to that level whether it is 2% or 3% that they see is adequate when it comes to the inflationary picture? michael: at this point i still think they are still bleeding the economy, they are not neutral so they are willing to go as far as what they consider neutral, 3% or maybe a little above, and see what happens. indicators suggest there is no real major inflationary outlook, except for the survey of economists. the new york fed's numbers based on the yield curves, they don't see it happening at this point. the fed doesn't know and they will start to take it more carefully to make sure they don't push us inadvertently into a recession, but you have to wonder. thursday, we get the gdp numbers and suppose it comes in negative

yields a bit higher, curve inversion the story.he euro-dollar breaking parody yesterday, a break of 139, munster moves in foreign exchange. big moves in crude, too. 93 handle on wti. down 2% on the day. we are down more than 20% on wti. quite a move. tom: i'm glad you mentioned it. we are down almost $30 on brent crude. an extraordinary move. what do you see in europe? gas, has it really pullback? it is still a crisis of germany. jonathan: it comes down to the ecb and italian politics for good measure, it is messy. it is really messy. tom: were going to go to emory during dutch annmarie hordern -- annmarie hordern about the trip to the middle east for president. i want to start, the jetta is not riyadh. the president will fly down the red sea on the western shore of saudi arabia to the commercial hub. what we observe when he lands agenda? -- lands in jetta? emory-- >> i believe the last time he was there was when he was president and having gone a number of times, jetta, riyadh or toronto, it has changed dramatically. the last time

you still have that inversion between the 2's and 10's. bloomberg dollar index was off by about .1%, maybe there will be some relief for the em's. yields came up quite sharply on of the session yesterday. 2.79 on the 10 year. and a little movement today. the yield inversion remain self recessionary risk is still there, but coming up at the front end suggesting that markets are pricing in a slower pace of hikes after this 75 basis points. it echoes a pattern seen after earlier hikes. to dive deeper into the market reaction, let's bring in our chief rates correspondent. garfield, what do you make of this guidance from jay powell? >> in many ways, he gave the market much more than they expected. we got the 75 basis points and we at least got the fed being open to the idea that provided the data allows them, they will slow down the pace of rate hikes. the potential disconnect looming is that the markets seem a lot more optimistic on inflation than most economists, and especially the fed. unless the data starts to show that we could be in for f

i should say the inverse, sorry. if rates continue to lower, i think tech will continue to move higher. when you look at the performance level, apple has outperformed the rest of the group unemotionally, on a yearly, and everything you possibly imagine. and they are the only ones that don't rely on ad revenue. for them it is a services business. people felt the stock was going much slower. rates go lower, tech goes higher. >> they are business reliant on the consumer and consumer spending. where do you stand on an apple for instance? we have all sorts of data points. consumer is still standing. ast and american express told us the consumer spending like mad. spending on travel and airline. seagate said consumers are spending spending on other things, not technology-related things we are part of. we on this? >> we heard that from target and from mark earlier until last earnings season. i think the consumer has yet to roll over. the strength an apple is as much about flight inequality as much as you have seen a plate t

haidi: how much significance are you assigning to the yield curve inversion?rin: i think it is important to look at. certainly the bond market is very good at predicting what happens in the economy, and even where equity goes. and when you see this really dramatic inversion, where even the one year is trading at a higher yield, or it briefly was today, versus the 10 year, that is something you have to take note of, obviously. and so i think that really is saying that, a, we're at at the very least going to see a slowdown, if not a recession. it could be something very brief. a simple two quarter recession. we already had one quarter of negative growth, so it could be something very miner. but certainly the bond markets are telling us that we are expecting this, and they are expect in the fed to increase rates by at least 75 basis points this next round. haidi: how do you trade around the u.s. consumer story then if there is this risk of u.s. inflation, that the mindset is already entrenched? erin: already it has been a very challenging market in how to pick st

going above the inversion, above 1000 feet things are significantly drier.e doppler 7 you can see the visible picture showing the low clouds and fog shrouding the coast from marin county down through san mateo. getting a closer it is still gray and parts of the city. the eastern part is sunny with going across the bay. sunshine around 580 in hayward. up towards vallejo some lingering fog. not for log. this was a nice shot of the east bay. it pretty much got overexposed. 57 downtown. 62 at palo alto. 65, santa clara. 54 at the coast. pretty picture of the cloud deck here dispersing from emeryville. numbers ranging from the cool low 50's where we have the low clouds and fog to nearly the upper 60's from concord to the delta. the southwest wind has backed off. almost8 miles per hour.an indict will be. we had some mist and drizzle earlier. we will see temperatures in the 60's.we will see partly clearin. overall it will be cool here. heating up inland. looking up a gradual cooling trend into next week. if you look at the forecast highs for sunday, notice the pink

that will cause an inversion of the yield curve. but that is a good inversion. not a negative inversion. people are interpreting more that it's going to be a recession and about outcome. it's not clear that that is -- despite the news on gdp, we are still seeing we've got a good pmi services, which is what you would expect in this rotation from manufacturing back to services, so pmi manufacturing is coming down. still positive. pmi serve it if -- pmi services come in. on that side of the economy, we are seeing good things. the labor market still is nearly two the one in the labor market. we should forecast a decent jobs report tomorrow. somewhere in the 275,000 range, which is phenomenal when you think about it, from a historical perspective. i personally think some of the fears of inflation or a recession are overblown. a lot of forecasting models predict improbabilities of recession, they are not even over 50%. where they are less depending on what the model is. >> there is another element to policy and play. . that is balance sheets. . the unwinding of some o

estudio gracias por la información sí sabemos que cada dólar cuesta ganarlo si vieran que es una inversión] >> [♪♪ ♪♪] >> estamos en la calle >> la sequía en california afecta mercados agrícolas al regresar de la pausa la serie del tema >> una familia mexicana se vio involucrada >> planes para el fin de semana hablamos de la capa marina posibilidades de lloviznas temperaturas pronóstico al regresar de la pausa >> quehan catalogado como históricas el gobierno ha ofrecido millones de dólares para ese estado >> tormentas severas han dado paso a inundaciones históricas >> el gobne del estado dijo que varias agencias incluyendo la guardia nacional de estados vecinos como tennessee están respondiendo a la emergencia en kentucky dejando muertos >> aquí todos nos conocemos dijo este residente de kentucky hogares sumergidos dando derrumbes en partes del estado >> siguen viendo agua en un terreno saturado que dificulta la absorción >> unas 25 mil personas se han quedado sin electricidad en kentucky complicando las labores en el estado >> el presidente aprobó una declaración de desastre para kentucky

conto a una amiga este dinero se rifo se vendieron numeros los numeros a 5 dolares y recuperamos la inversiony un poco mas frente a los incendios asegur que no ha sentido el apoyo del consulado se ha comunicado se han manifestado que estan para servir pero no hemos recibido ningun ayuda desde las 10 de la maÑa y hasta las9 de la noche en el estadio de futbol aqui acudian cada domingo gracias a todas las personas que han llegado y han ayudado hoy han sido recordados con u juego de futbol amistoso muy bendecidos con la bendicion de dios de que toda la comundad esta presente ayudandonos en todo lo que ha podido de todo corazon aunque no se reunio toda la cantidad de dinero noticiero telemundo 48 tras el hallzgo de mosquitos vea la informacion en pantallperoa estÁ viendo , se concentrara la regiÓn noroeste cerca de santa clara y estÁ en el proyecto de reconstrucciÓn a que nos explican. >>>luego de ir a la panaderÍa michoacana y vemos que afectÓ mÁs de cincuenta por ciento yo zorro este trabajo de construcciÓn del principio serÁn dos meses nada mÁs y como se imaginarÁ vemos que estaba bastante com

when the inversions fat like that. so the five will be coming back. not until we get to the evening hours tonight. there's patches of it out there now. beautiful day, though pretty good air quality. we talked about pittsburgh and antioch's and those areas are having the issue with that smoldering fire out there in the in the marsh, but the rest of us have pretty pretty darn good air quality, so just know that as we go into tomorrow, we are looking for more of the same. another nice day and as we head into the weekend which is really just right around the corner. now we're looking at temperatures that are going to escalate into the mid nineties. even maybe sunday were 97 98 degrees, and then it cools off after that, so we'll see. we'll see how that goes. but that you know what that means, right? it just means okay. we're going to be on high alert for fire or higher alert for fire. current temperatures. you got a nice onshore flow. i keep the arrows in because that's the whole story when it comes to fire because that's all we're thinking about, right? u

and the deeper inversion that actually the inversion that's almost not existent gives you really great air quality gives temperatures like these two, which are great for firefighters again, well below the average. pardon me temperatures tomorrow gonna be a little bit little bit the same. maybe a little bit warmer, something like that, but very similar. and again. this is a kind of thing. if you're cal fire, you're loving it. there's the low that low is the reason the high is going to do this deal where it nudges in towards the four corners, but that really mostly affects vegas and san bernardino county for us. it just means a slight warm up. it'll be a little warmer on the weekend, some low nineties and places like antioch and livermore, which is quite frankly, if you live in livermore in july. you're like 92 degrees. i'll take it, man that's like that's not a conditioner, not even on. this is the pattern kind of a southwest flow. that's that weather system right there. it's just not a feature that we're used to having. and it's what we got. so as long as it stays put, which it does th

what's called an inversion. that's the point. the atmosphere are the temperatures, all of a sudden change and that means we're going po see that act like a cap on the atmosphere and keep the small kind of settled in to some spots in the east bay. so right now you see more of that, a westerly component to the wind as it continues to make its way toward the east, bringing that smoke in that direction and around the bay area, the sea breeze really been the story throughout the week here. we've seen that strong on shore flow, but now the winds are going to be a little less, i think going into the weekend with high pressure moving in overhead. still, you're seeing sea breeze out there right now. some fog moving in along the coastline. but again, it's going to be a little more broken and high pressure tends to compress the marine layer, too. and that means we're not going to see as much fog penetrating further on shore. kind of interesting, though, you've got a trough of low pressure up in the north here in the gulf of alaska. but it's

it just blows out the inversion.you get this vertical air column of this mixing in the vertical, which gives us typically better air quality, which i think we're we saw today gives us higher humidities and cool lower temperatures and that's where we are. so these are the highest from today highs tomorrow will be about the same. not much difference and we're going to stay in the seventies low eighties will warm up a little bit for the bay area weekend, but i for one and i'm no friends of our cal fire. two are pretty stoked on this pattern. just because it really there's some big fires burning, and one specifically brown, amador county and community up in that zone up in the foothills of the west, london's here in nevada, down 3 4000 ft. humidities like 48. that that's typically in the teens this time of year, so this just helps firefighters greatly. um these are the current temperatures there about where they were yesterday. at this time there is that system again and that that's sort of a southwest wind. we're usuall

we continue to see the inversion. we had a lot of volatility and the wild treasury market, a two year yield which is sensitive to policy. jumping as we got the fed minutes. the 10 year yield is above 290 again. is this a signal of an economic recession to come? they cap has had to be a bit larger when it comes to the inversion for the recession in the past. we continue to watch these metrics as the yield curve is a signal and a warning sign perhaps for the economy. >> what is interesting is not a single mention of recession but mentioned inflation. the trade-off that the fed is making between economic growth and reining in price pressures. in asia that debate as to whether the fed got it right on the fundamentals, setting us up for some modest gains. japan is also modestly in the green. we see a slight relief rally as both of the markets close in negative territory. new zealand is looking a little bit flat, having a public holiday in a previous session. the aussie dollar falling below, we are keeping an eye on it beca

this is what it looks like, priya is looking for 50 basis points of inversion. that is a while. fed needs to keep hiking as long as inflation is elevated going into next week. we are looking at eight .8% in our survey for -- 8.8% in our survey for cpi. we are looking at parity in the euro-dollar. tom: i think twitter broke down as well. in the blur of news today, twitter is like euro parity. stock has gone through parity. jonathan: the washington post story suggests the acquisition was breaking down. am i here to fill in the gaps? tom: cut me some slack. jonathan: let's take a be. someone is join us right now thankfully. that someone is here. >> let's stick with the putter story. the deal is in serious jeopardy. elon musk will make remarks at a sun valley conference saturday. some of the heavyweights will push among what the deal looks like and the timeline. the stock is down 4%. tesla is not moving. it's moving positive in reverse. we know there is that inverse relationship. does he split attention? those shares are about flat. in terms of deal news, this is up almost 2% this m

the inversion that some of you are looking for, mark cabana is looking for a 4 handle on fed funds. he thinks the economy is strong enough for the fed to be able to contain inflation. the pushback we have had on that call, massive. people are saying, take it to 4. does that do anything about energy or food prices? as you have said, you have got to eat. that is not a joke. things are expensive but there are some things you have to carry on buying. tom: matt miller with the word of the day, fungibility. over a decade ago, sam stovall did what was hard to do, he followed on from his historic father and wrote the seven rules of wall street. it did rather well. sam stovall of all, what is the rule of wall street this morning sam: good morning. i guess the rule is you don't fight the fed. i think the fed has to remain aggressive because this is now the sixth time since world war ii we have had the year on year change in cpi about 6.5%. every prior time we slipped into both a bear market and recession. i think there are still concerns ahead. jonathan: help me with the earnings picture as w

varios tramos para que lo considere también se cerrarán varios llegaron a este lugar dijeron que la inversiónl corazón del paciente realizaban pequeñas incisiones hace un tiempo para hacer este tipo de operaciones era necesario abrir la cavidad toráxica asegura que la recuperación del paciente es más rápida con esto nosvamos, qué pasen buenas noches debe saber hoy. muriÓ asfixia por sofocaciÓn. asÍ muriÓ la joven stephanie escobar descartando versiones anteriores. muriÓ un tre 3 y 5 dÍas antes que se encontrara su cuerpo. inicia el juicio de sentencia del asesino de parkland. el alt canto va a pasar el resto

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para conocer las causas >> vamos a la pausa, inversión millonaria.ano ha salido adelante. le tenemos su historia >> no se pierda esta noche nuestro bello satélite natural. la superluna del siervo. >> ♪ [música] ♪ millones se cambiaron de los big three a xfinity mobile. eso significa que millones ahorran cientos al año en su factura de servicio móvil. y todos esos millones están en el network 5g más confiable del país con el proveedor #1 en satisfacción al cliente. eso sí que son muchos clientes satisfechos. y nunca es tarde para unirte a ellos. obtén datos ilimitados con 5g incluido por solo $30 por línea al mes, al obtener 4 líneas. cámbiate a xfinity mobile hoy. >> que algunos consideran necesrarios. habló con una madre que perdió a su hija que termino >> cruzan con las manos entrelazadas donde hace un año un auto aseguró la vida con su ser querido. >> estaba a una de rueda y la atropelló y la dejó. hasta este día en personas que la mataron. >> en una activista por la seguridad de peatones que fueran instaladsa. recibirán 10.000.000 de dólares en f

stocks not acting like it. >> that inversion feels more serious this time around.ery much indeed. let's talk about british politics. according to bloomberg reporting, of 1922 committee wants to whittle down the fields of candidates to replace boris johnson by july 21. joining us is marcus to discuss who could replace boris johnson. is -- if boris johnson is going to remain in office in theory until that state. what are the implications of that? how do you think a caretaker prime minister will operate? >> it will be tricky for a number of different things. i think we worry about john glenn having led particular for the steps which would free up a lot of capital and a lot of infrastructure in the u.k. economy. i hope that does not get lost in the change of office of different people in different ministers going up. i suspect the committee wants to make this a swift end as quick as possible. i don't think they will want to many random people coming in who have no real chance of being successful. the markets can a look at this one of two ways. bill have some skeptic ve

is a different story than three basis points of inversion.han: when you're willing to accept a lower yield on a longer dated maturity than a short-term maturity, that typically signals some kind of problem. lisa: and as you cited earlier, it is a question of how we get there. is it going to be gradual, controlled, or is it going to be violent? is it going to be something significant when it comes to the market and economic disruption? as thomas been -- as tom has been talking about. jonathan: jordan rochester went looking for that move to parity. we are basically there. he is factoring in dollar strength and more. we will catch up with him next. i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. opec's first outlook for 2023 has been released and suggests no relief for the global squeeze. members already are falling far behind the volumes needed right now. in the u.k., retailers reported another drop in sales. record high inflation is keeping consumers from

these are not inverse anymore. that includes oil below $100 a barrel.ot create a solid narrative. let's look at them individual in terms of what actual stocks are behind, because of course we know the social media scare is very real. snapped outcome of these losses are accelerating faster and faster, almost a 40% decline just intraday. that is huge coming off of earnings, suspending the third quarter financial guidance, and concern about some advertising headwinds. they will add on to that slowing we are seeing, on sympathy, also down 7%. it is not just the essential media names, it is the semiconductor names as well -- the social media names, it is the semiconductor names as well. you want to take a look at the potential pain in semis and whether or not it is magnified. you are seeing a flatter yield curve. if you look at commodities, you can start to see that with the new russia and ukraine deal now opening the grains shipment, there is a lot of movement in the commodity space. does that translate to the broader market? that remains to be seen. anna:

. >>> de colección aparte es una buena inversión es muy divertido pues como le hago que tenía transbordadores y tener tipo de vehículos especiales que ahora son reales y podemos ver que seguirán desarrollando la mentalidad de los niños as que buena noticia que sufra de jugar juegos con las conexiones meteorológicas en nuestra no saben si miércoles o jueves estudió presentando alto oleaje a partir de la zona pasada quedaron sin efecto las advertencias que las corrientes son muy peligrosas no le de la espalda al marco que puede ser arrastrado vamos a ver cómo están las temperaturas argumento solo nublado que sigue llegando la hora de la madrugada y dejan temperatura los 57 se espera que mañana a temperaturas hacia el interior sigan subiendo en las costas se mantengan frescas las que las marsopas o josé cercanos a los 81° de calor continúa advertencias continúan enzonas de texas esto afecta mucho personas y hubo víctimas debido este calor intenso así que mucho cuidado sigo al interior ayer miércoles se compró 63 años de que el hombre pisó la luna bastante increíble se hicieron historias en casi

curve inversion. -23 basis point is out there this morning. the two year yield, higher than the 10-year yield. i think i'm getting that right. kailey: sounds about right. tom: right now we will go to studying the advanced timeline with kriti gupta. kriti: yesterday's rally was so significant because it was the broadest going back to 2020. traditionally when you see that kind of broader rally, it is good news and that there is not a defensive tilt or cyclical tilt. the entire market is rallying and you have some high-volume. perhaps conviction by on the surface. essentially how many s&p stocks are positive minus how many at the end of the day are negative. going back to 2021, you see this rally, but in 2022 see that decline line stalled out. we need to see more of that breadth to have a sustainable rebound. i will also point out the other side of the argument, chris murphy said we had a broader rally, 98% of stocks were positive. that being said, that has historically led to some sort of correction. really a two way situation here. tom: thank y