>> that would be above 5% to see that inversion, but with this inversion, you may see that over 30 years. -65 basis points, and that is for 2-year note to keep climbing up to around 3.75 to 4%. the 10 year yield just doesn't quite keep up even though yields move higher. this goes high for the 10 year yield. it is really an inversion that will determine how high two-year yields go. that is very highly influenced by how far and how fast the fed's. >> the high is interesting in the time we are talking about the treasury market. this talk about the stock market. i'm confused. walk me through this. diffie chairman has indicated he is going to be more hawkish, and going tougher on patient, potentially pushing back or delaying an inevitable recession, shouldn't the stock market be happy about that if it is trading on growth prospects? why is it selling off? >> this is a head scratcher because leading up to this, there were already expectations that it was going to be hawkish. what is happening here? i am getting indications that this is a buy the rumor sell the news, but another thing is the re

it is not inversion getting our attention today. francine: inversion, let's get to our mliv managing editor. you're looking at the two, 10 treasury curve today. is it different this time around. mark: i feel like you and tom have been very kind. the choose tens, what does it signify? the 35 years, or basically for every -- if you want 37 years between the early 80's up through the pandemic, for every recession, the yield curve inversion, an average of 18 months before. i'm going to ignore the one apparent which was 1998 which came a few years earlier. the recession eventually came when the curve was re-steepening. you can see all these few words -- all these keywords -- you do not normally have a recession when the curve is inverted, you have a recession when the curve is back steepened again. there's a few things i want to point out. this is a world of low inflation, we are now back to the world of the 70's and 80's. expense of the curve inverted long before recession. in fact, we kept inverting much further and that's when we got

the future of inversion lands squarely on cpi.et's ask antoine bouvet what he makes of the current inversion. no pressure here now, and one. 50 basis points says to me a soft landing and nothing more to worry about. do you agree or is there a risk of 200, good morning. antoine: 200 seems a little too much by way of inversion. i wouldn't go as far as a soft landing but clearly we are going to reach a peak in the fed funds rate that will not be sustained. this is what long-term interest rates are telling you and why we are struggling to rise above 3% and why rates are going to converge at 2% in the middle of next year. this is telling you that no matter how hard the fed hikes interest rates by the end of this year, we have to reverse most of it. dani: 2% in treasuries like water one, 2023. that is quite the call. what is happening in the greater economy that gets us down to 2%? is that a recession we are deeply in by the first quarter? antoine: it is a mix of things. there is risk of recession and risk aversion throwing more funds t

curve inversion of 37 basis points. jonathan: the fed has pushed back in a way that we thought they would. yields have responded on the front end by 17 basis on the two-year. equity markets kept on rounding. we have ripped off that market low. close to 20% higher from june 16 on the nasdaq. tom: it does for to into the fixed income space. frankly, that has been as dynamic as equities. lisa: shockingly dynamic, considering this is the deepest market in the world, particularly at the front end, as more people are confident that the federal will come through with their rate hikes. the reaction in markets to a good print. if you see concert which group, much does that feed into the ellen zentner view of things, next year you get a rolloff of inflationary input, and then positive waitrose to fuel the soft landing. tom: randall kroszner will be joining us later. important perspective from the farmer -- former fed governor. we are getting to nadia lovell now. green on the screen. jonathan: muted price action. the nasdaq up by

he said the inversion can show the length of the recession. how? he said it is pretty much how long the inversion holds and shows how long the recession will be. he likes the three-month 10-year, which floated at negative. you can see that inverted for a quarter. that's code red. as long as it stays inverted we might have that long of a recession. it seems like the market is saying we don't know but it could be a mild recession. like some of the credit spreads are not giving red flags. it's a mixed bag. god willing, maybe they pull off a soft landing. it does not seem like the market believes it is possible. caroline: here's hoping for everyone with a job and wants to keep it. great narrative of what the bond market is trying to tell us. let's get you out to the world of business with mark crumpton. mark: health care providers backed by the american civil liberties union are asking the florida supreme court to review their challenge to the state's new ban on abortion up to 15 weeks of pregnancy. it took effect july 1. groups, including planned pare

heidi: what about the yield curve inversion? is a sign we are watching closely because we have been getting close to the inversion, it has been deepening significantly. the widest gap we have not seen since the dot com bubble first. it does depend on what happens with the fed policy rate and that is a function of inflation. the bank of america is saying that the expected peak is rising .4%, the current move is on the fed rate kicking around 3.5%. we could see the curve inversion deepening 285 basis points. this has been a very watched metric since we have started to see that inversion again because it has been a very good signal of recession ahead. heidi: commonwealth bank has reported the highest cash earnings in four years. coming in at 9.6 billion australian dollars, agreed to have you with us, we are going into this, we need momentum from the previous period. what racks are you starting to see? there is commentary on the weakness of the household and the drop in the interest margin. >> today's report is a possibility of a sl

further curve inversion, -40 basis points.hat and look at individual securities. lisa: we are 91% done with the earnings so far on the s&p 500 in terms of the number of companies. individual stories are fascinating. roblox, how people were using fewer video games and kids have things to do. you are seeing this across the board with me to game producers. those shares plummeting in the premarket. this is because of a disappointment in the usership. tesla shares, interesting to see them popping on the report that elon musk sold nearly $7 billion his stock, so my are shares up? he wants to get ahead of some sort of firesale he would be forced to do, should he buy twitter. coinbase came in as a disappointment on the heels of the crypto asset meltdown earlier this year, lower by 5%. in other stories that i know that you are keyed into, the rights to broadcast the big ten football games. that is what we are seeing with disney and paramount. disney reports after the bell, shares of .9%. espn dropped the rights to televise big ten. par

to me that is all roads lead to yield curve inversion in this environment. i'm not sure there's a bigger disconnect between the market and fed except in the short end pricing. i think the long end as reflecting the belief that central banks globally and fed in particular will do what it takes to bring inflation down. jonathan: twos intends for -40 basis points, how much further can we push the yield curve inversion? how much further from where we are? kathy: it could go further. if you look back in the early 1980's, it certainly got deeper than that. we were kind of targeting the 50 basis point area as an extreme level and i think it might back off a little bit from here but it certainly can go over them. we get more strong prints and there is no limit to how deep it can go until it signals to the federal we really are tipping the economy into recession and that is coming through in the credit sector and the tightening of financial conditions. we are not there yet, but i think we are not that far away from it. jonathan: we will talk about credit later on in

if we have a longer fed regime, are we going to have longer, deeper curve inversions?riya: i think inflation is likely to make this longer. inflation is inherently more sticky and a lagging indicator. inflation might be the last thing to respond, and the fed is telling you it is probably going to be number one. i do think motions have historically been short-lived because inflation has not been a problem. the fed has flexibility to respond. they are telling you if inflation does not accelerate that mandate is lopsided, and therefore a period of sticky inflation will mean that inversion lasts for much longer than the markets are pricing in or people are looking for. jonathan: given how they are setting up their reactions here and how little the market seems to be listening to them, how do you think this market would respond to a bad labor market print, a bad payroll print on september 2? andrew: -- priya: define which market. there could be some risk assets comforted by a weaker number, because then that might mean the fed may not hike as much. i would argue it would be

jonathan: the biggest inversion going back 20 years.: we have to migrate forward on the issue at hand, speaker pelosi's moment on the way to taiwan. would i find so interesting is what i haven't heard out of washington, how alone is speaker pelosi on this trip? i don't see people lining up on marble steps saying blah, blah, blah for or against. how alone is she? >> she has the support of both parties all of a sudden thanks to the rhetoric coming from china. this is common during the august recess that members go to various countries. this is a particularly sensitive one, however. we've heard from republicans and democrats who say you cannot turn back now. she has every right to visit the country and even the white house made clear, john kirby said we cannot tell her not to go and there is no change in policy. there is precedent for this trip. so basically, what is the problem? tom: the gentleman from maine was with us yesterday, the secretary of defense from ages ago, this is a change. there were almost no exports from taiwan to china.

it's changing focus on the yield curve with a steep inversion.: the energy price right now is hovering around flat line in a choppy session in the root market. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get unlimited data with 5g included for just $30 a line per month when you get 4 lines. switch to xfinity mobile today. >> keeping you up to date around the world. ritika: energy security took another hit of the russian to hungary. slovakia and the czech republic were halted because sanctions prevented payment of a transit fee. russia blamed sanctions. the subbing breaking several days -- u.k. is breaking several days, gas shortages, leading to blackouts for industry and even households. under the government's latest worst case

a full inversion in the yield curve.or now, i think our strategy is to focus more on the shorter end of the yield curve. you have the opportunity of riding those shorter-term interest rates higher. kathleen: thank you very much. you can get a round up of the stories you need to know on today's addition of daybreak. it is available on the everywhere app and you can customize your settings so that you only get news on the assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: we are counting down to the start of great in tokyo and seoul. in japan, the prime minister is said to shuffle his cabinet. a new defense minister, digital, and economic security. we are watching for the july of ppi data. -- july ppi data. we are looking for earnings from honda, japan post, and fujifilm. in korea, the jobless rate was unchanged. the labor market is hiding -- holding up against interest rates. household loans grew in june, second quarter earnings are due from ky andshinsegae. >> the u.s. justice is preparing to sue google for illeg

as we look at the inversion, there's the fog watch what happens, it lifts up, but when the inversionu're saying offshore. as you look out there, you can see bog. well that's the shot of going get bridging t hayes, but the fog is pretty much vaporized off the coast. it will come back tonight . you can see a few 100 miles offshore right now. we can measure that out. actually if you will, maybe less than 100 miles offshore. that's going to fill in tonight, and when that happens, we'll see temperatures cool down and we'll get back to a pattern like we saw this morning with the fog that was out there. what tomorrow brings is a lot like what we saw today and yesterday the day before that, and temperatures are going to be mostly in the hot spots in the eighties and low nineties, which is great. now we are going to heat up this weekend. the reason for all this mild weather has been this big. trough right here, and that's always a good sign this time of year to see it only because it means that it's a system like that can whittle the high pressure down a little bit in the pacific high, which

someone said warp speed inversion. what do you see in the data? kailey: the yield curve most inverted since the year 2000 is remarkable. you are seeing resilience in the equity market. futures positive by 9.5 points. how much can that stick if we are talking about a federal reserve that will be more hawkish in the pivot the equity market has been expecting is not going to come soon. you are seeing yields moving lower. tom: peter tchir with us later. the fed governor you do not know, michelle bowman, the community bank governor may be less visible than the others but nevertheless important, she is in search of unambiguous evidence inflation is going down. we start with an unambiguous monday brief. lisa: i will give you an unambiguous morning tidbit. i came in this morning and i looked at what to expect and i said i will do a tom keene. it will be the beginning of the week on wednesday so let's start there. wednesday we get u.s. cpi. this will be the issue. bouncing around, up, and then we are a lot higher than we have been historically and terms of

de 10.000.000 $ muestra especificaciones, con esta inversión la ciudad puede construir infraestructurasargo plazo >>> encontraron el cadáver de un mujer en la rampa del autor 8 80 fue antes de las 2:00 de la mañana una camioneta la tropa hecho y siguió de largo cree que el chofer no se dio cuenta lo que recomiendan a quienes conduzcan que revise sus coches por daños >>> en la familia pide ayuda par la mascota que fueron robadas 2 de 3 cachorros, francés que fueron sustraídos dura caso ubicado en la cuadra 800 ser precavido real la policía cree queuno tendría un tatuaje en su derecho y utilizaría frito bucales 3 de los perros fueron robados del para ti y para llevarse el tercero ingresaron a la casa >>> la desaparición del adolescente de 16, (...) al norte de california es investigado como secuestro, también investigación se debe que no localizaron el vehículo un (...), color patria de la hoffman fue vista el jueves en la ciudad donde asiste una fiesta según las autoridades >>> en el condado contra costas sigue la investigación de un tiroteo en el popular gimnasio antes de las 2 de la ma

inversion of the curve, long and yields, that marks a big difference from march when the entire yield curve went up. this time it is going down. longer dated treasury yields are saying there are growth concerns. service pmi's, building permits, consumer confidence -- name your measure and things are getting worse. not better. the long end of the treasury curve is reflecting that. lala land is going on. there is tremendous opportunity in the long end, 20 year looks phenomenal. liquidity will find its way to the 20 year if the economy rolls. for profit growth turns negative, which we expect on the equity side, there are opportunities out there and there is a big diversions between what the markets are telling you. lisa: fascinating question. the team at td morning "the longer the inversion continues, the more investors and consumers will become nervous of recession and that might have self fulfilling consequences." you think investment-grade has gotten ahead of itself. more broadly, if what mike is talking about, the diversions between a yield curve and credit, which basically suggests

people will be looking at the deeper inversion as well.f you look purely at the local vectors in new zealand, it will be pretty tough. that would mean that they need to keep this higher for longer. this is not something that will happen in the near term. >> we are expecting those fomc minutes, the fed continues to be hawkish. markets seem to be of -- seem to be ignoring all that. now we have this china slowdown story. this recovery isn't going happening in china. >> it will be very volatile. particularly on the short and. the two-year yields will be very focused on what happens with the jackson hole symposium. there is some talk that jerome powell could somebody hawkish in that speech. inflation is out of control. that is public enemy number one. the fact that he pushes harder if the feds over another 70 basis points, if they look like they have a lot more work to do, the risk recession could hit the united states some point next year. that has to be reflected in the long end of the curve. we should find that the inversion stays for a long

we have recently been getting some recession fears with the yield curve inversion.is passing through to some asian markets the likes of new zealand. the july pmi rising to 52.7 with concerns continuing to loom over the rbnz. >> let's turn to apple because bloomberg has learned that the company is asking suppliers to build at least as many of its next-generation iphones this year as in 2021 despite worsening projections for the smartphone market. let's bring in mark gurman for more on this. we are getting indications that perhaps they are being more cautious about the economic outlook. what is this telling us about how they see their demand for this year? parks tim cook was pretty clear on the earnings call that these microeconomic issues that apple is seeing, the problems in the supply chain, people buying, the war and all of that, iphone is left out of all of that. the iphone is on its own island where people buying iphones will continue to buy them apple continuing from its number from last year 90 million units, that's the new generation iphone compared to 2021 i

it is massive, rapid inversion. extraordinary.ear yield is seven point -- is 3.23%, in the green this morning. the dollar is turning and oil, the russian news is a big deal. brent crude reaching up 97.89. we will watch the more continental europe price of brent crude, up at dollar, 91.7 as well. we do the briefing with lisa abramowicz. lisa: thank you. the most underrated economic data point of the week is this one at 8:30 a.m., the productivity for the second quarter. it is a measure of how effective people are in their jobs so you are seeing people are getting paid more because of inflation but producing less for a variety of reasons. we saw that last quarter and the expectation is to see it again. typically that means that later on there will be job phrases and layoffs as companies try to trim costs because of the lack of productivity. that comes ahead of ppi tomorrow, thursday and university of michigan consumer sentiment friday. it will be interesting to see the discussion from the semiconductor chief executive officers, pres

>>> uno esto fue gran paso pero todavÍa tenemos que acelerar la inversiÓn en energÍa renovable para que se puede hacer y cuando se hace eso tambiÉn vamos a poder crear millones y millones de trabajos buenos que tambiÉn ayudan a nuestra comunidad y la economÍa. >>> claro las tecnologÍas existen asÍ que hay que seguir ejerciendo presiÓn ahÍ tiene el ejemplo de cristina de (nombre en inglÉs) muchas gracias por hablar con nosotros >>> gracias por tenerme con ustedes >>> al regresar en noticias telemundo mediodÍa j-lo y ben affleck se casan este fin de semana le contamos cÓmo va a hacer la boda. la polilla atlas es mÁs grande del mundo y ahora ha aparecido en washington donde nunca ha vivido ya se los contamos. (comerciales) (dad) le tengo que contar a todos que tenemos el nuevo plan welcome unlimited de verizon, por solo $30. (daughter) ¡yo ya le conté a todos! (nurse) perdón... ¿entonces podemos tener verizon por solo $30? (mom) el mejor precio unlimited, ever. (it girl) $30... ¡qué bien! (dad) y es de la red 5g más confiable del país. (woman) ¡por $30 por línea me cambio ya! (mom) ¡sí, es

la inversiÓn mÁs grande en la historia necesaria.Á un mÍnimo impacto en la inflaciÓn. pedro: el gobierno afirma que la ley crearÁ impuestos a las corporaciones que obligarÁ pagar un 15% y personas que ganan mÁs de $400,000 al aÑo, republicanos aseguran que por el contrario crearÁ mÁs costos en precios de energÍa. " cuando hablamos del gas natural que usamos para calefacciÓn y cocinar eleva los impuestos y los precios. dijo lÍder republicano del congreso. desde washington, pedro. ilia: la venta construcciÓn de casas en estados unidos atraviesa una crisis. sÓlo en el mes de julio las contrucciones descendieran 9,6% a nivel nacional segÚn la oficina nacional del censo. otro anÁlisis asegura que ha aumentado la desconfianza de los constructores y contratistas. expertos dicen que se debe a la crisis en la cadena de suministros, ya que los compradores no pueden pagar los altos precios de las viviendas. el trÁfico de compradores estÁ por debajo de lo que se habÍa visto en los Últimos meses. para muchos pasajeros se ha convertido en una verd

y cambio climÁtico. >>> y que podrÍa empeorar la situaciÓn econÓmica el paquete aprobada incluye inversiÓnecios de medicamentos e extensiÓ reducciÓn en cuentas de electricidad y medicinas para ns de electricidad y 800 a medicina para misiones estadounidenses. >>> eso no ocurrirÍa la inmediato alberto incluso en el ala de montcada segÚn el a anÁlisi la ley que en su nombre lleva esa promesa. >>> es unas de congreso implementaciÓn tendrÁ un impact insignificante de inflaciÓn una de las principales crÍticas a la ley que sonando lleva esa promesa. >>> hay efectos de la inflaciÓn ojalÁ que se produzca va a estar alargo plazo. celebrÓ la aprobaciÓn que v probablemente un impacto de largo plazo en un comunicado el presidente biden celebra la aprobaciÓn quien considero que beneficiarÁ las familias trabajadoras, antes de que llega el escritorio debe pasar por la cÁmara de representante parÁ probarle aproximaciones en washington javier vegan momento personas critican la gestiÓn econÓ noticias telemundo. >>> instale con la inflaciÓn el momento en muchas persona que se garajes en econÓmica del pr pres

tom: look at the inversion. jonathon: the equity market is not paying attention to that over the last couple of days. lisa: here's what i am wondering about. there is a doubt about the fundamentals that are driving that lower end and rate picture lower. it is believed that the fed is ultimately going to come to the rescue of this market and is still embedded in this market, but eventually there will be rate hikes. it is likely the expectation that quantitative typing will stop next year, in addition to rate cuts. that is still the belief embedded in markets. jonathon: priya missouri -- here we are. we are basically there. lisa: a row ahead. he tweeted out that this accelerating decline has spread. how much does that indicate recession? it has most of the time. people are saying we are beyond that. that lack of doubt you are seeing in the price action really reflecting the backdrop of easier financial conditions told by the fed. tom: i went back and looked, did some fancy mathematics. it is no math thursday. i lo

jonathan: inversion 2s and 10s.the ba -- the bank of england forecasting recession that last the whole of 2023. pretty brutal. tom: with all your perspective, are we reduxing 91 to 92? jonathan: we will find out from the next prime minister. liz truss, i wonder where that leaves the bank of england. do they have to do more? after brown, we got an independent central bank. this is the biggest hike since then. tom: that is your value add on surveillance. jonathan: from here, downhill. lisa speakes and tom and i stopped talking. lisa: there are a lot of interesting stories go beyond the macro. alibaba up 5% after being down 20% year to date. they beat expectations in their earnings despite all the headwinds, zero covid policy, regulatory crackdowns by the authorities. time on i'm watching closely, up .8%. nancy pelosi meeting with executives from the semiconductor company which is a pivotal node in the entire global system, considering we depend so much on ships. lyft shares down. they are reporting after the bell. som

ed: this is when it caught my eye -- we're looking at single stock etf that leverages an inverse etf.roducts on the market launched tuesday, on a day when the stock is down almost 2.5%. whole point of a leverage inverse etf's you want to look at those outsized gains when there is movement in the stock. there's also a risk, direction is one of those providers. the stock was down 2.5%. that's the risk with a leveraged etf because at one point five times, that etf's -- that etf fell to 4.6 percent during tuesday's session. if you think the stock is going to go down, they offer a bear etf. on a day when the stock was 2.5 percent lower, the inverse etf was up to pin 5% on a one to one ratio. regulars have been talking about this for a month. a at sex them on the month with a single name, tesla. this is the demand they have seen, tesla is where they are seeing trading volumes and inflows, so our get regulators are getting a little worried about this because you are making outsized that on a stock that can move in either direction depending your conviction. given what we've seen in the marke

. >> el gobierno anunció una importante inversión como parte del programa () ppara hacer frente a lahablando del gobierno estatal. > dinero para crear vivienda permanente para quienes viven en la calle o para quienes corren riesgo de perder su vivienda, esto les ayudaría el pago del alquiler. >> la legislatura estatal nos han dado más fondos estamos llegando números que no habíamos visto antes. >> el gobernador indicó que la inversión será distribuida en 35 proyectos en 19 comunidades en el estado. >> en temas de inmigración; dice que son sus propios abogados los inmigrantes confían a ciegas en ellos sin imaginar que pueden ser causa veces de su deportación. >> tania luviano nos hicieron caso, un hombre dice que todo lo que ha vivido fue por causa de su abogado. >> fue detenido en otra inmensa donde fue confundido con un contrabandista de humanos. >> sentí que todo se me venía abajo. >> yo escuché cuando la migra prendió la sirena, me sentí feo. >> y fue la última vez por horas que lissette escuchó la voz por teléfono de su entonces novio. >> me dijo el oficial si yo era ciudadano am

julia: the twos/tens inversion is a leading indicator but i would say not a possible indication of a recession and it can convert years ahead of a recession. i just tells the fed is taking -- away. that may or may not lead to a recession imminently. given the job market, the soonest i can imagine this going into a recession is next year, nothing m&a. i think the fact we are seeing cooling price pressures now while the job market is still strong, gives us a little glimmer of a hope of soft landing. not cooling but they can stop at what i think president evans said something like 375 and 4% e market range, i think that would be consistent with a market landing in this hot labor market. time will tell. we need a lot more of reports like this. caroline: and a lot more data to chew on. i'm interested in what the next one is for you, people talking about how the retail can be interesting. as he spoke about a moment ago, where are people allocating that for the moment. is that the data point for you? what are you keeping an eye on? julia: yeah, susan li -- yes, certainly the consumers are k

less curve inversion than pre-cpi. -34 basis points.ing it from a greatly inverted -49 basis points. brent crude, 98.45. on the individual equity stocks, lisa pulled an all-nighter to give us. lisa: analyzing rivian and electric vehicles. rivian is fascinating. their shares are lower by .2%. they beat expectations with a forecasted bigger than a speck that loss. they have not gotten production up to speed to meet all the demand. they had people making orders two years in advance. in the meantime the costs are going up of raw materials they use for all these goods. how do they deal with that without going back to a lot of these individuals and saying give us more money? that is not what they want to be doing. jessica alba's company reported a worse than expected earnings, but also a bigger than a bigger than effective loss for the year. those shares down nearly .3%. toast is surging. i had not heard of it before today. tom: you are struggling today with these components. toast? kailey: they make restaurant software. lisa: they are up mor

the deepest inversion since 2000.ow many more rate hikes will there be an how deep will be go in the inversion? >> in terms of recession, yes, there will be. i don't think it is going to be deep, i think it is going to be a shallow recession at the end of the year even though we have just had two consecutive quarters of growth. in terms of the fed, the market is expecting the actual cutting rate and i think the risk is the fed goes further. manus: i had the standard chartered ceo with me the other day and i asked what is the terminal rate? he said it was an interesting qualification. where do you see rates getting to without a much deeper inversion or maybe even 2% on tens as bank of america are saying? >> it is quite likely rates will head up to 3.5%. the market is pricing in rates going up, but where the markets must be wrong is that the fed is going to be easing rates by next summer. if you look at the forecast for next year they have rates on 1% below. that is very optimistic. inflation to our mind is entrenched.

it's the inverse, a short.terday various long and short exposures there may by hundreds more coming as it is etf industry seeks to leverage the public's interest the advantages, there are some, you don't need a margin account, for example, to own them but a lot of people in the business are not happy about the development. they pose far more risk. single stock etfs reset on a daily basis over time you'll likely not get the return you might think. they're just plain different to understand, all of which has led gary gensler to say these kinds of complex products can present a sneak and potential risk to investors. this is kind of what happens when you get an etf industry looking for business opportunities on top of retail traders. it's sort of the perfect marriage of business needs and people looking for other things to do. >> do you think it's proceeded tore, or does it level of playing field? >> well, that's what the industry says. this is where they say sophisticated investors, but the truth is that it's real

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there we go, that is an inversion there. >> we will see if this u.s.obs report will do anything to tournament that inversion and whether these short and euros could break above 3%. we are all focused on that survey which is the consensus right now. let's look at how many jobs we will get right now. let's look at kathleen hays with the preview. >> there was a jobs report, looking at payroll. how much demand for labor is there? what we will see is potentially 250,000 in the month of july. that is the consensus from our bloomberg survey. >> 72 in june. beyond that, there is enough job creation. wages are still rising. 4.9% year-over-year in july. 5.1 in june. it is still about double what the average used to be there. she is committed to a rate hikes. inflation, that is the coming rate hike. that is the main worry. jobs may even be weaker. they don't think we are going to get a recession but they will settle for a soft landing. the message seems to me to be that we will. >> when we see what is going on, is the market still misinterpreting expectations? i

it is the inverse inverse of this year. this year, inflation was higher than that. that. what if next year, the rate of inflation keeps coming down. then social security recipients get to keep that higher cost of living adjustment adjustment as prices go down. that should help them to replenish their savings next ye. next year. a little ray of hope potentially for next year. >> we will see how those numbern numbers turn out at the end of this quarter. thank you so much for your insight. we appreciate that. you can see her regularly on cbs mornings and cbs evening news. you can go to jail on mon. on money.com. > >> what we are not single down but go up is the forecast. jess. forecast. jessica. >> it is heating up as we extend extend into the weekend, amanda. amanda. you'll see it off in tht the east. we are starting up with a little bit of that marind this morning. we are seeing some some partly cloudy conditions. it will dissipate very fast as we extend into this afternoon. we are left with sunny skies today and we'll just say, get used to it as we head into the aberage.

this as we have seen that the 210 inversion -- the two-10 inversion deep in. of the markets really counterproductive to what the fed is trying to accomplish, especially with financial conditions easing. the availability exempt the cost of credit, the goldman sachs financial conditions index back to early june levels. moving away from what the fed would like to see. not helping with restoring price stability. you could see inflation easing, or perhaps not to the levels of the 2% inflation target. we are also watching the rba. it could be boosting its key rate 50 basis points on wednesday for the fourth straight meeting. our global economics editor is here with the latest. it is not just about today's rate hike, but what happens next? >> your battle to get the key inflation rate. rbnz was expected to see them do their fourth 50 basis point rate and row. it will get it up to 3%. it will be a total of 275 basis points of rate hike in this tightening cycled. they beat the fed to the punch when it comes to starting the rate hikes last year. what is going to happen n

that is smoke that we're seeing as far as that inversion layers concern. in fact, take a look at this particular map that i drew for us here and you see that we have that inversion layer that little brown tinge to the atmosphere. it will be a spare the air alert day tomorrow and we haven't seen one here in the bay area since june. the 10th now this isn't just an outrageously hot hot weather pattern that we're experiencing here. what we are experiencing is something that we have not seen in some time. the last time we had a heat wave here in the bay area was june 10th, 11th and 12th. so we have a heat advisor in effect for the north bay hills, the east bay hills and the valleys as that highlighted red areas, he's temperature spike into the triple digits again. we're just not acclimated for we've had a very benign quiet whether pattern this past summer temperatures right now stream from the seventies at the immediate seashore 70 in oakland. i gotta tell you i'm in oakland right now, and it is just fantastic. but then when you travel inland, too good 45 miles

and it is an indication from the institutional side, however, if you look at retail purchases of inverse etfs, that has fallen off a little bit what does that tell you about where the market is at. >> yeah, and i think it is interesting that you put out the difference between institutional and retail and because if you look at data over time, retail has started to dominate the market so we have to pay a little more attention to that than we used to so it is certainly interesting that you see that and especially with inverse etfs, a lot of brokerage firms don't allow trades in some of those. they require extra account features to do that. so to see a spike, you have to be cognizant of who would trade that and what portion takes up retail. >> right and we've been talking more about meme stocks. today with the first guest, he was talking about trimming his energy holdings in favor of some tech and the charts are showing something similar. a lot of bearish sentiment at the moment for tech and bullish for energy, is that right. >> that is correct so we'll pulling call to put ratios so that is

. >> that yield curve inversion, we reached nearly half a point of 50 basis points.e we seen the worst version or is there some scope to go further? >> i don't think we have seen the worst. we need to look at the 1980's curve inversion we see anywhere between 80 to 100 basis points. there is really two ways to get there. if you have a higher terminal rate or if the market and the fed think that terminal is around 370 54, the other way to get there is that we keep fed policy elevated well into a slowdown. that is not really looking at the fed fund curve, pricing in some easing later next year. i think maybe going into the jackson hole symposium, the risk is whether or not powell pushes back on what the markets have priced in which is basically you need to cut after. they have been trying to price in a bit of a hawkish powell. but i expect powell -- i think it was is that they reliving into the market pricing after the reach terminal next year. >> it is guesswork as you pointed out. your estimate is based on what? >> that is based off of having moderation and inflation

either way this does suggest, history suggests this inversion tells us recession is coming at some point to 24 months. some of the big losers, weakness for consumers paid abercrombie & fitch is higher up 2.2% before it was plunging. they did not miss but they cut the sales guide and the management team talking about the uncertainty around the consumer. earlier it a been down shortly as well. they brought in their view for profits talking about cutting prices and investment in prices. still down sharp, both of these companies missed. burlington, still so much uncertainty around consumer spending, having a lot to do with all the inflation talks. guy: absolutely. the labor market remains strong. abigail, thank you. let's talk about what's happening in the macro picture, talk about what's going on a jackson hole. the symposium kicks off today in wyoming. the host of the retreat is the kansas city fed president. he sat down earlier with bloomberg that the fed needs to raise rates with -- so demand can slow. >> what's the danger of recession that you see and what would you see it in in terms o

you are seeing a third inversion.e getting closer and closer to that level and solidifying that risk off mood. move. you did have an opec increase on the table. inventory data is pulling it down lower and lower. >> he talked about that nasdaq performance. three of the big movers on the day include a name like moderna. some of the shareholder goodies were well received on wall street. the elliott management impact also getting investors enthusiastic. well received results from starbucks. on the other side, another reminder of some of the economic uncertainty of their with the chip giant down 1.5% right now. there are some questions going forward. >> let's send it back to the oil story. one hundred thousand barrels a day in september. the u.s. department senior advisor the -- advisor spoke about the decision that might have fallen short. >> and u.s., most of the production is onshore in the u.s. and those are short cycle productions that need not -- that do not need 10 and 20 years to be able to make profits. they can i

a seguir los créditos entonces estas son buenas noticias para las personas que quieren hacer la inversión usados >> es una ley importante y tomar acción no solamente sino acciones directas que nos ayuda a todos a contribuir al medioambiente >> el gobierno les va a enviar a su casa para ayudarles a atravesar la inflación eso no va a ser así esta es ley que ofrece reembolso en reducción de costos de medicinas a través del plan de salud de obamacare >> será de inmediato el segundo mencionamos los dos mil dólares además el secretario de salud dijo que va a negociar para bajar el costo de la medicina así que hay que esperar >>la gasolina no es parte de eso gracias por dejarlo claro el departamento de educación se comprometió a pagar los préstamos estudiantiles federales en septiembre del 2016 la decisión beneficiara a 208 mil personas que debían >> diciendo que la deuda que tienen no van a tener que pagarla >> el instituto que tuvo 130 campos en estados unidos en 38 estados pero cerró tras ser acusada de presionar a estudiantes los empleados de apple tienen una fecha para regresar al menos 3 d

un apneÍsta francÉs vatio el rÉcord mundial con una inversiÓn de 120 metros de profundidad a pulmÓn.

. >> es un plan de inversión administrado por el estado para que les permita a las familias ahorrar parae que su hijo está recibiendo este dinero del estado. >> debe registrar a sus hijos en este portal en línea. >> así se ve este portal. > > está es la página web donde tiene que ir (nombre en inglés) si gusta puede cambiar el idioma al español y le va a dar toda está información. > > lo que necesita para registrar sus hijos si son recién nacidos o para registrar una cuenta el estudiante se registra. >> puede comenzar acceder a sus cuentas a través de este portal en línea en los próximos meses enviará cartas de notificación a los niños y familia que califican con más información. >> >>>> en telemundo 48. >> con tenemos información sobre este programa. >> >>>> gracias gracias sandra cuando son las 12:08 de la tarde te pregunto qué opina sobre el programa de oro para estudiantes de bajos recursos. >> somos primeros contigo por eso estamos ofreciendo una línea de ayuda desde las 11 de esta mañana. nos acompaña lilian pérez es coordinadora de estrategia de la agencia (nombre en inglés). bien

curve inversion, 37 basis points. the two year yield was already seven basis points above the 10-year yield moments ago. it is really flashing some red signs. tom: we have so much talk about this morning. i am going to the continued equity lift. resiliency indicated by the vix. jonathan: 13% from the lows on the s&p 500. yields unchanged on the 10 year. sub 2.70 the 10 year. hawkish for to speak disrupting the bond market. on the bank of england, mohamed el-erian writing this. the bank of england continuing with "what have been the most direct and honest commentary of any central bank." we have not heard this from anybody at a central bank about how dire they think this outlook is. tom: lee ferridge joins us now from state street corporation. i will cut to the american chase for those on radio and tv. can the angst come across the atlantic and become the angst of chairman powell? lee: almost certainly. the bank of england is being the most honest. they are predicting recession that the last five quarters. yet, they fe

that inversion is still in play.long-term rates below short-term once oil prices moving to the down side this morning. u.s. benchmark wti $88.45. 56 cents to the down side. similar percentage loss for world benchmark ice brent crude at $94.30. nat gas below at $9.01 we have the latest headlines with silvana henao. >>> celsius is pulling its motion to hire the cfo back to $92,000 a month. he technical remains an employee of the company this decision comes days after cnbc reported on the request by celsius to list the help as a consultant during the bankruptcy process. >>> two employers in indiana employing 10,000 people in the state and it worries it hurts the drugmaker's ability to attract diverse scientific engineering talent from around the world and plan for more growth outside the home state. the manufacturing employs 10,000 people in indiana. >>> and elon musk is challenging the ceo of twitter to a public debate about fake accounts and s spam in a tweet on saturday, musk said the challenge was the culmination of

we saw the inversion bounce a little bit as two-year yields came down this week, but the whole shape of the fed curve could go deeper. we saw with the uk's cpi yesterday hinted percent and -- hit 10% in surprise people. certainly the risk of the curve going deeper inversion is something people will be watching closely. in terms of volatility, bond markets will not die down between now and september. in terms of the u.s. dollar, the dollar is pretty firm, but there are some signals that emerging market currencies are getting some traction, but that may not be enough when the euro has such major headwinds because the situation in germany. we saw a drop of 2% yesterday as one of the corporate announced a loss, but the euro will be under pressure. whatever it does, we could have the dollar stay strong anyway. david: some of these forecasts on the chinese economy really don't give any reason to get on the other side of the dollar trade. goldman sachs cut to 3.3. no more cut to 2.8. in a world where nothing is growing as quickly as the u.s., to your point, the dollar remained strong, and h

huge inversion.ing up, we will be focusing on all of this with someone who used to work at the fed as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: about an hour into the trading session. kriti gupta is checking out. kriti: when we woke up this morning futures were down 1%. the pressure still exists nonetheless. s&p 500 down .4%. nasdaq slightly outperforming but i would not call it anything to write home about, nothing super exciting there. we will see if that turns positive. in terms of direction it looks like it might be heading that way. going to the bottom, i would say that is where it is getting more interesting. the two-year yield is hitting the highest all the way back to 2007. as more and more people pile out , or pull out of the front end of the curve, we are seeing different -- seeing the front end hit a significant level. it is going to be a major question. does the dollar follow? the bloomberg dollar index actually hit a record high going back to july. it was only momentary before completely made a r

this inverse etf went up.ve been talking about this for about a month because it is not a new product. asx came on the market 30 days ago. this is the demand they have seen. they are offering a number of products but tesla is seen -- this is where they are seeing training. given what we have seen in the markets of late, it is an area we should keep an eye on. >> thank you. would you rather subscribe? the ceo scott painter with me now. how would you describe what you do differently here than a typical rental car company? >> a rental car is something that will cost you a lot more. it is a good option if you're going to meet a car in the city after a couple of days. it is about making it easier, faster and less expensive. or believe is one of the big barriers for electric vehicles is affordability. the average car payment in america is $650. we have a product to get you into a test the model three. click talk to us about your partnership. we know you are working to increase the supply of other kinds of cars. what

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rate hikes in 2006 led to an inversion in the curve we know it goes to 147 by july of '08 it takes aore the recession kicks in and that time rate hikes in late '06 and recession didn't occur until '08 globally the other time was in '94 and '95. recession didn't happen immediately and you rallied 80%. >> because, as history shows, gasoline, jet fuel, shipping fuel demand is shockingly inn elastic. people have to get to where they get to jeff, outside of energy. i'm not a gold bug you met many why are we buying gold >> we look at gold is at the bottom end of the trading range at this point right now. i think the key message here is gold has been pricing in and given the fed the benefit of the doubt it will conquer the inflation battle they have been trading lock-step with one another to take a really strong view on gold busting out of the recent trading range. you have to take the view that the fed can't control this inflation. that is the reason we like to buy on the bottom end of the range. we like to sell options on both sides of it. to tell you they will be comfortable to get the i

we already have an inverse proportion of 2/3, everything is already calm done.ver 130,000 meters done. now we have uh six more objects in operation - this is even more than 30,000 meters. one of the new objects on the cultural map of moscow will be this mansion on prospekt mira, a building built in the middle of the 19th century. the last owner was the owner of the weaving factory, sergei morgunov, after the revolution, this mansion housed a tuberculosis dispensary, number 11 in the nineties, there were offices of a medical center and even the wax museum, the building changed over time, even the walls were repainted blue. now the historical shade will deliberately return the facade to become olive again. the halls will restore the decoration, picturesque medallions, stained-glass windows and velvet panels of the fireplace have been preserved in almost perfect condition. but now it's more like a decoration of the chimney, but the craftsmen plan to do it during dismantling work at work . prices of oak wood species are quite strong and in good condition, where it i