noel from invesco and tom, sba. -- portfolio manager at spa. let's begin with you. this looks solid. what do you see? noelle: it is solid. it is broad-based growth in the jobs report today. at invesco we tend to not look at anyone thing as a trend, and -- at any one data point as a trend, and the trend is pointing to growth numbers .8%, and that is why we are calling for moderating growth going into 2019. jonathan: does this complicate things for the fed, tom? tom: it is trying to get them on that path they defined as neutral, 2.75%. maybe it speeds them and they do it every quarter, but it appears that's where they want to get, and they are probably going to want to get there quicker. jonathan: that is just around the corner. chairman powell says we are a long way away. who is right and who is wrong? tom: i only look at what they define as neutral. it is a moving number. i am a simple guy, did some simple math, i came up with 75 basis points from where they are today. does that mean they may move it? i guess they have been known to move goalposts in their life, so

[laughter] jonathan: andy chorlton, noelle coram from invesco and tom atteberry.t for us. we will be with you next friday at 1:00 p.m. new york time, 6:00 p.m. in london. for our audience worldwide, this was "bloomberg real yield." ♪ alix: scary october for commodities. we break down earnings for big oil to big gold. maritime winners and losers. why medium-range tankers will see a windfall with imo 2020. commodities in the crosshairs. the midterm elections are a turning point in the way some companies do business. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel.

final thoughts from ira jersey, noelle corun from invesco and jose rasco.k ahead to next eek. ira, what are you looking from the talks? ira: we would like some closure. markets hate uncertainty. having closure, knowing what any kind of trade deal may be would be great. are we going to get it? no. the likelihood of getting something definitive at of the g20 meeting is low in my opinion. jonathan: the markets have settled on the idea of no fundamental change. but the cease-fire might be enough to get a rally. is that what you are looking for next week? noelle: i don't think we get a ease-fire. i agree that we would love some closure, but i don't think we will get that. these things take time. history tells us they take time, especially the strategy related to trade goals that the administration has. there will continue to be highs nd lows. we just have to watch them closely. jose: i have slightly more optimistic. we want closure as well, but if you look at the feedback the president has gotten on trade policy, it has been go fight the good fight. to your poin

invesco to not look at any one data point, we look at the trends, and the trends are pointing to growth numbers around 2.8% next year, and that is kind of why we are calling for moderating growth going into tonight. jonathan: does this company things for the fed? >> no, i think they are trying to get to what they defined is neutral -- define as neutral. maybe they do it every quarter, but it appears that's where they want to get, and they probably want to get there quicker. jonathan: that is just around the corner. chairman powell says we are a long way away. who is right and who is wrong? >> i only look at how they define neutral. doing simple math, i came up with 75 basis points where they are today. does that mean they may move it? i guess they have been known to move goalposts in their life, so that may not shock me. it might bother me when they do that, but when i think about neutral in a more simply stick way, you think, ok, they need a north of rate inflation. is it 1.5%? i don't know. jonathan: it looks like we are going into restricted territory next year. it is interesting to

caroline: with us is the invesco chief global market strategist, and you have been focusing on some ofbal threats to growth, italy being one of them, brexit being another. any optimism about the eu and u.k. reaching a mutually beneficial deal? >> certainly today gives me a little more optimism than i had a few days ago. it seems that the eu has finally taken some cues from the struggle and the u.k. and is suggesting this is a great deal and we may not want to give it to the u.k. i think it is similar to a children's story where a rabbit says do not put me in the prayer bush, and i think the eu is starting to catch on that that they have to sell this, as well, by saying that they do not want to it and it is not necessarily a good deal for them. certainly, the odds of the deal have gone up today. scarlet: the odds have gone up, but it is a political process. it will go through a lot of back-and-forth's before it is resolved. what does that mean in terms of investments? how are you positions? a long enough time horizon, and we are very long-term investors, this could offer buying opportun

that was mark parris at invesco. guy: shop till you drop. the shopping season is almost upon us.does the outlook look like for the retail sector? we will find out next. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ phone rings ] what?! ready for christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. guy: live from london, i am guy johnson. taylor: i am taylor riggs. this is "bloomberg markets." guy: we are about to get data on the oil market. change.ing at $54 in you expect a distal it draw -- bilduild. and a gasoline the build is way bigger than anticipated at 4.8 million barrels. we are seeing not much reaction in the crude market. let's look at where the distillates are. the draw is q

ton of exposure for example, the spdr s&p, ticker spy, and in line there's a 12% weighting of the invesco the past apple dips have been ones worth buying as evidenced by its march to be the biggest pubically traded company out there, but will a perception of slowing smartphone sales, perhaps less transparency around financial reporting cloud things this time around, scott, and that's going to be a big part of the story? back over to you. >> dom, thanks very much let's trade it what in the world is going on with this name it gets below 200 bucks. >> yeah. >> golden opportunity, is it or not? >> for a trade maybe, but the problem is you don't have any visibility into it anymore that's going to keep a certain type of investors out of it. i still think you're kind of making the same bet in that do you believe that apple is going to be able to outperform and outexecute anybody else? but, again, maybe it's slowing maybe these another part of it, and the entire economy is slowing. i'm as concerned as you about the idea that tech is underperforming. i just think it's going to be very difficult to

they build basically the white house right in invesco field outside. that all the hillary supporters come right along. there'd be that anxiety that the hillary supporters wouldn't come. everyone in the world is focused on denver and obama-biden for 32 min until they announce... e next vice president of the united states, governor sarah palof the . [cheers and applause] - sarah palin is the vice presidential candidate for john mccain and the world goes, "w?" i was in denver and hed every light, camera, and all the action... [inhales sharply] pack up and head to wasilla, alaska. it was the wildest thing! rybody go?" - senator, i am honored to be chosen as your running mate. [cheers and applause] - what drove you to chse governor palin 'cause as you're saying, you had several good choices. - well, she was a very successful governor. she was vo a very conservative. i thought she was suitable for the position of vice preside. the most important thing, obviously, ismething happens to me, would she fill in as president? - sarah palin's capacity to captu the s

if you look at a lot of the assets, the risk invesco assets them canceling the airport project and isfe banks good news here. they've come a long way in a short. of -- in a short period of time. joe: you got at the concern and there is not any individual that i'm low is going to do or has done. he is making moves and perhaps doing things that will spook the investor community starting with the airport. now it is a back-and-forth on banks. is there a bigger concern there? the premiumlike you're getting paid to own mexico, but do you worry he could take governance in a different direction than what we have seen? damian: you make a great points. there is a heightened sensitivity to all things emerging markets. this is more of the same. this is not argentina. this is an investment grade credit. talking about mexico. while there has been political might have aarkets lack of fiscal discipline with some of the things bally about -- valleyed about. it is a pretty decent time to be giving a look at some of these assets. there are a lot of good things going on in mexico. money closeazilian up e

her final thoughts is ira jersey, noelle from invesco and jose rasco.what are you looking forward to from the talks? ira: we would like some closure. markets hate uncertainty. cap enclosure, illiquid any kind of trade deal may be would be great. are we going to get it? no. the likelihood of something definitive is low in my opinion. jonathan: does n -- the markets have settled on no fundamental change. is that what you are looking for next week? noelle: i don't think we get a cease-fire. we would love some closure but i don't think we will get that. these things take time. history tells us they take time, especially the strategy related to trade goals that the administration has. that will -- they will continue to be highs and lows. jose: i have slightly more optimistic. we want closure but if you look at the feedback the president has gotten on trade policy, it has been go fight the good fight. to your point on inflation, it is killing certain sectors of the economy. there are a lot of complaints in terms of inflationary potential. jonathan: something

industrial average internet fund, fdn, is the one that people look at as a fang bellwether, as well as invesco tracking in line with one another but it shows you that for as strong as this rebound rally has been, it looks like a reflex on an oversold chart. so it has to prove there's something behind it to carry things higher. >> that is sort of the technical picture. anything in particular worrisome within the earnings reports from big fang names some were good, some were scrutinized. >> i wouldn't say that was the catalyst it wasn't like people zeroing in on specific fundamental challenges, the problem is the valuation swing has been so huge so most outperformance came by people willing to pay more and more and more for the same dollar of earnings so now what is the floor where does that stop well, it's -- they're still trading at a preed yum so there is no mark of fundamental value they'll hit as a stopping point. people are making the point that apple is in a different category in terms of it's not like hot money hedge funds are crowded in there with very concentrated positions in apple as

at invesco is from earlier of republicans and democrats getting their cancer getting their bases.ilitary pilot, being in arizona, would a little of republicans, but is the independence, and how they will come down this. we'll talk about this a lot to me whether democrats have to get out the hispanic vote. and there has been evidence, actually, today, throughout the day, the turnout in arizona and texas of latinos has actually surged, particularly last few days, where they have had early voting. you are utterly right. the big question to me in the evening is does the focus on immigration, which was so much tied to be president's base, actually buring with latina vote rs base, actually buring with latina voters in importance states like florida, nevada, arizona, and texas. there are a number of congressional races in texas that if they also could really get to 35 seats, 36 seats, instead of just could really get to 35 seats, 36 seats, instead ofjust 23. to some extend that is the big picture but denied. does donald trump in his message on the way that he delivers a message excite th