~ , in iowa? will there be event bein: in iowa? will there be event being held? _ in iowa?wa? will there be event being held? nikki haley- in iowa? will there be event being held? nikki haley will| in iowa? will there be event. being held? nikki haley will be back on the — being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail _ being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail tomorrow i being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail tomorrow and j back on the trail tomorrow and i think we will see how the other candidates handle the weather, it's the final scramble for them. i had an analysts say the truth is most voters have decided, it's a horrible time for candidates who realised there's nothing else to do but sit back and wait for monday night. fine else to do but sit back and wait for monday night. one more cuestion, wait for monday night. one more question. how — wait for monday night. one more question, how are _ wait for monday night. one more question, how are the _ question, how are the candidates, nikki haley and ron desantis, talking about the frontrunner donald

live from iowa, this is bbc news. it's caucus day here in chile iowa. season officially begins? and in dc. from _ season officially begins? and in dc, from foreign _ season officially begins? fific in dc, from foreign policy to zone from's legal challenges, there's a number of key issues voters in iowa and across the country will be watching in the lead up to november. hello, i'm catrina perry. we are just 30 minutes away from the start of the first presidential contest of 202a. tonight, republican voters across 99 counties are battling bitterly cold temperatures to make their pick for their party's presidential nominee. but with donald trump maintaining his lead as the party's frontrunner — the focus has turned to race for second place as nikki haley and ron desantis battle to keep their campaigns afloat just as the 202a race heats up. in 30 minutes, those caucuses will begin. live now to our north america correspondent gary o'donoghue in van metre, iowa. gary, tell us what's happening there at the moment. this gary, tell us what's happening there at th

people of iowa.round game. the people that show up. ron has put in the work, he told iowans he would go to all 99 county and listen to them, i have been with him a lot, he stays until every question is asked. he said he would do it, he did it and put the time in, it is a great reflection of the type of president that he will be, and you know when people get in front of him, he flips on. i have seen, they are impressed with his answers and his vast knowledge of different issues, you have been there a lot of them come out of left field. harris: i have seen it all of the candidates that i have been on the campaign. this electorate is on fire to jump in whether iowa or new hampshire. look, you have taken some heat for this, in "new york times," it sca scarcely seemed to move the needle, the question now is whether ms. reynolds who was popular with republicans in the state before si deciding with her desantis will pay a price with her own voters, your thoughts? >> i have also had so many people come up up

iowa. >> we're going win iowa. >> things have changed. just hours before the caucuses, it's this. >> we're going to do well. i like being underestimated. >> desantis is the candidate perhaps with the most to lose tomorrow. so what does he have to do to be seen as a winner? >>> plus nikki haley stepping up her attacks on trump. is the cririticism, ththough, t little t too late? >> tonight, ron desantis is inhaling his campaign in iowa just hours before the caucuses begin and arguing that the ground game will leave no stone unturned . >> we have built a great army here. tomorrow will be really fun for us. we will get everywhere we can between now and monday night. we feel good about all the energy that we are seeing. >> now from iowa our senior editor from the atlantic. with the popular conservative radio host and the former state senator who has his finger on iowa politics. many of the cadets appear frequently on your show. i was glad i saw you last week. and it was much warmer. it was positively balmy compared to now. okay, let's talk abo

but today's iowa is changing. populist candidate. so my guess is that the state will vote very strongly for donald trump on monday, and i agree that he has a very good chance of going on to win the nomination. it has been a fascinating conversation... crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do is they say they don't produce a winner but the winner of iowa always makes a final two in the nomination process, no matter how many candidates we start with. so winning iowa is the single most important thing a person can do and finishing second in iowa is the second most important thing a candidate for president can do. ido i do not underestimate its power. they don't always pick the winner but they come close. thank you to you both. it is worth asking how accurate are the iowa caucasus? well, since 1976, only 11 of 19 iowa caucus winners have gone on to secure their party's nomination. among them only three went on to win the us president. in recent history, president joe biden lost the iowa caucus to his now—transp

kasie hunt is live in des moines, iowa. the iowa caucuses are here. we're about to find out if the polls were right. can donald trump dominate or can they pull off an upset. >> these are set to be the coldest iowa caucuses on record with dangerously frigid temperatures. this is a live look at des moines where you probably don't want to be outside. the high right now, negative 1. that's so cold, you can get frostbite in ten minutes. in their closing messages, trump and his opponents made a push for his opponents to get out and k k caucus decespite the winter bla. >> even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. >> here in iowa, you have the ability to change the trajectory of american politics. >> if you will join with us and caucus, if you will bring friends and family with you when you do it, i promise you our best days are yet to come. >> we have team coverage this morning. correspondents on the ground in iowa. our political analysts standing by. let's start with casey hunt. s -- kasie hunt, she joins us in des moines. the candidates are takin

ames iowa, iowa state university. if you are going to have a good race between nikki haley and ron desantis throughout the night this is one of the parts of the state that you will be thinking about. i will go back in the time machine for just a second. marco rubio, eight years ago was in this light blue color. look he did well in story counting down here in polk and to the west of us in dallas county for a lot more suburbs in an area where he still at 7% and still a pretty good race between one and two that we anticipate will last throughout the entire night. whether or not vivek can bump his numbers up into double digits. we will be watching the mississippi river and all these counties up and down. i mentioned black hawk a moment ago. still early, 5%. we will see how that breaks down throughout the night between the blue team in the orange team. desantis, haley and vivek ramaswamy and green. back to you, sean burke we will fire this bad boy up. i told brett earlier we have some new cylinders and that this year. we w

greg, dear falls, iowa. do you know who you are going to caucus for tomorrow night if you are going? are you with us? caller: i am. i am a caucus captain for my precinct in cedar falls. host: and you will you vote for? caller: donald trump. he is the only one on the ballot who can really get our country -- host: craig, are you -- we lost you there. is this your first time going to a caucus? caller: sorry? host: is this your first i'm going to a caucus? caller: no, i have gone before, but -- host: i am having trouble hearing you. apologies. we will hopefully try to come back to you. if you can hang on the line and clear up your mind, and we will come back to you. the candidates have been in iowa campaigning for months. we are now just hours away from their first test on theallots. look at how many times each of these candidates have visited the state of iowa, and think about how that compares to their poll numbers. vivek ramaswamy who has visited ercounty twice with over 182 stops, ron desantis, with over . n

here he is. >> we're going to win iowa. >> we're going to win iowa. >> we're going to win iowa. >> and now he's not at all talking about winning and he's change expectation game and he's changing this. >> we will do well on monday. we will do well. i like being underestimate. >> we will do well in iowa. >> all right. the change couldn't be any more clear. it shows an acceptance of not winning, about you what is doing well? what is doing well for ron desantis, ron? >> i don't think there is a doing well short of winning or shocking us by coming within single digits of donald trump. the issue isn't really expectations, erin. it is the reality that he has put all of his eggs basically in his banket and he has built an impressive organization and he had a favorable electorate for him, the problem is the audience for that message has never been nearly as large as they expected. they basically pitched themselves to the slice of republican voters who want trumpism without trump. desantis was indignantly complaining last week that, you know, the media says he hasn't made a case against trump a

we never think of iowa as a purple state, but right now, iowa is a purple state.w zero right now in cedar rapids, 13 belee in des moines, 16 below zero in spirit lake in okoboji, where i used to go as a kid. and that's cold. even without the wind, it is cold. and tomorrow the numbers are going to look exactly the same, maybe a degree or two warmer. but as you said, there's snow on the ground. when the sun hits the snow it's not going to warm the land very much because they're just going to bounce back up. the coldest we've known out for the last couple of elections, 2004, at 16. and we know that this 2004 was affected by that 16. we're going to be 20 degrees colder than that for tomorrow afternoon. so, people going to those election places are going to be standing in line, driving. we are now 31 degrees -- the departure from normal. it's cold. no, it's 31 degrees colder than it should be tomorrow. so, very cold. >> put your blankets on your cows. chad myers, thank you. >> absolutely. >>> and joining me now is nicole slinger, a long time republican strategist in io

it's caucus day in iowa. we're seeing final pitches, last-minute endorsements and frigid temperatures. we're hours away of getting some answers to huge questions. who will come out on top in the race for second place? will the results push any candidates to simply drop out? >> and can they survive the cold? the weather might be the biggest story in iowa today. that could affect turnout, people's willingness to get out the door and go to the caucus sites. the candidates trying to get on the campaign trail this last minute. this is what they were saying this morning. >> today is the day we make history. today is the day we make history because we tune out the noise of the media. we tune out the noise of the politicians and we raise the voices of americans that say, we want a better day. >> it's the party of the washington, d.c. establishment. they've lined up behind him. i would be a change agent in washington, d.c. i like that contrast. >> i'm asking you for your vote to revive our nation and answer who we are

and joining us from iowa is rick in spencer, iowa. where's owacaller: in the northn of iowa.describe your political philosophy? caller: my political philosophy is primarily independent, but i am going to caucus for the first time in my life this year. greta: and why? caller: why? s ■zbeeuse i've seen enough over the last 10 to 15 years, where it is timeor p■eople at it involved, to make the points and get our voices heard. greta: so, which candidate or what is motivating you to come out and caucus? caller: the candidate that has motivated me is ramaswamy. very strong on the constitution. very strong on his plan to make america great again. and■q just move the country forward. greta: and why not the former president? you just use his tag lcaller: ir president will not be allowed or will not be able to get to the final ballot in the general election. greta: ok. so, you plan to make it out on caucus night when it is going to ■oome record temperatures with the wind chill. how will you stay warm? caller:here is no such thing as bad weather, only bad gear. greta: ok. caller: dress

thank you so much, iowa. [applause] >> iowa, i love you! [applause] i love you!a. [applause] >> in this election, we are ready to leave again. thank you, iowa. [applause] >> thank you, iowa. a lot of those people counted out. i think you know the last one. >> i worked for that guy for about ten years. i mean, it's a 250,000 people who turned out to caucus for the year that barack obama won the caucuses, which is a huge number. even as we talk about the numbers tonight, it's important to put things in perspective. >> and that goes to the grassroots, that camping which you are part of, also that turnout. and also talking about the polling, a lot of it is a prediction about who's gonna turn out, bet if you will. and so, we're gonna wait and count the votes. >>> we're gonna continue this conversation with jason johnson, our special guest, next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever yo

remember, this is iowa winter. in the context of that this is not anything that these individuals have not faced over and over and over again. >> how many first time caucusgoers are you hearing from, is it a bunch? >> yeah, it really is. you know, mostly just information but i was surprised. i am neutral in this caucus. i am bound by the republican party of iowa constitution to be neutral. we have an even playing field. and i went to almost all of the candidates events the most recent events i think i have been to three events where they asked new caucusgoers to raise their hand. i have been amazed at how many are raising their hand. they are enthusiastic. i talked to some when they left. my job after the caucus is through. reaching out to them, just to know if they are a democrat, independent or republicans hibernating for awhile. let them know there is a place for them in the party. the next role is to keep them. >> one thing that iowa is known for, it is known as the full grass league. going to all of the 99 cou

this iowa caucus is a bit different from — iowa caucus is a bit different from the _ iowa caucus isre not caucusing because — democrats are not caucusing because joe biden has shuffle the decks so all the focus is on the _ the decks so all the focus is on the republican party and it's about whether or not they want — it's about whether or not they want donald trump to be their nonrinee~ _ want donald trump to be their nominee. they have spoken in iowa _ nominee. they have spoken in iowa during the course of the last year— iowa during the course of the last year about things like the economy— last year about things like the economy and immigration things like foreign—policy and whether they are — like foreign—policy and whether they are tough on china, whether— they are tough on china, whether they were close the southern border, all those issues _ southern border, all those issues have come up, but in the end it's — issues have come up, but in the end it's a — issues have come up, but in the end it's a vote about whether you want _ end it's a vote about whether you want donald trump

momentum has often fizzled after iowa.rth keeping that in mind as we go forward. >> bret: what are you looking at tonight, kellyanne. we are seeing the first numbers of those going into the caucuses. they will close the doors. they will start adding up all those numbers. what are you looking for? >> obviously, president trump can get to 50%. that's just gravy. it won't matter if he does or doesn't because he is dominant in everybody's polls including the ones released very recently. bret, i'm really struck by sort of the poll's answers to the argument for everybody who is a candidate not named trump. for example, you have got the woman, nikki haley. trump is beating her by more than 2 to 1 in polls. new guy vivek ramaswamy, the outsider. you have trump beating him among first time caucus goers. you have ron desantis made a big play to evangelical christians and i think desantis has a good ground game here. he could come in second for exactly that reason and continue on whether he comes in second or third. but he got b bob

kasie hunt is live in iowa. iowa republicans are getting ready to choose their nominee for president. we are about to find out how strong donald trump's grip on his party is or if his rivals can pull off a stunning upset. the latest polling shows a continuation of what we've seen, the former president heading into the caucuses with a double digit lead. >> these are set to be the coldest iowa caucuses ever on record with dangerously low temperatures, the high in des moines today, negative 1, windchills up to negative 40 degrees are possible today. that is cold. you can get trust bite in just about ten minutes. we have correspondents on the ground in iowa and political analysts standing by. let's start with kasie hunt. good very early morning to you. frigid, i know, but a make or break day for these candidates. >> reporter: it is frigid indeed. my location it's negative 15 degrees right now at this very early hour here at the mars caÉe in des moines. it really does feel like a much different caucus season this tim

she didn't do a lot of campaigning in iowa. a lot of people said she made a gaffe when she said new hampshire corrects iowa. she was probably right. and to come the 2 points away from ron desantis, who put all of his eggs in 99 baskets and didn't get any of the 99 counties in iowa. and nikki haley winning oneself. ron desantis has to do explaining why his campaign continues to exist. >> she's right when she says this is a two-person race. >> she doesn't have to explain why she's still in it. ron desantis does. he's a mini trump. >> you have been on tv all night. i'm going to keep coming back to you. the question i had, nikki haley in had her remarks, saying it's a two-person race. but also the framing that voters don't want the rematch. she called it a nightmare. listen. >> trump and biden both lack a vision for our country's future. because both are consumed by the past, by investigations, by grievances. our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the trump/biden nightmare. >> it's actually good messaging. if you're going t

god bless the great state of iowa and how good is iowa in picking the eventual nominee? >> it's not great when you look at the republican side and they've been doing this contest since 1976, they have only one time chosen the nominee who became the president of the united states when it came to the contested caucus, one time. one time, it was george w bush in 2000. tonight's caucuses held on martin luther king jr. s national holiday and a state whose demographics reflect the republican party, but not the country as a whole, according to the latest census data, nearly 90% of iowans are white. just over 4% are black, and nearly 7% hispanic or latino. nationwide, more than 70% of all americans are white. more than 13% are black, and around 19% are hispanic or latino. when we look at gop primary voters at large, they are generally whiter, older, and more evangelical than the general electorate of this country. yet incredible focus on this outlier every four years. what is at stake? what happens here could determine if donors have confidence in them. if supporters continue to

iowa and new hampshire are not the same. a lot of people win iowa and lose new hampshire. it may not be over just because it looks like it's going to be a blowout. but obviously the blowout helps him move forward with a contests to come with steam behind him. >> thank you all so much. and the expectations game. coming up, top performer campaign strategist coming in to talk about how republican candidates are preparing for their next stop on the campaign trial. this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. l. this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc complete nutrition you need... ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost. - i got the cabin for three days. it's gonna be sweet! what? i'm 12 hours short. - have a fun weekend. - ♪ unnecessary action hero! unnecessary. ♪ - was that necessary? - no. neither is a blown weekend. with paycom, employees do their own payroll so you can fix problems before they become problems. - hmm! get paycom and make the unnecessary, unnecessary. - see you down the line. (man) mm, hey, honey. looks like my to-do list grew.

let's make iowa keep iowa first in the nation.ost: business owners in iowa talking about the impact on their state now that democrats have decided to not hold the first presidential primary contest in the hawkeye state. they will still have caucuses on monday night but it's largely just for party business. instead they have mailed out ballots to democrats. 8000 were requested as of friday for these ballots. they have until march 5 to return their preferential ballots to the state party and the results will be announced after march 5. so the first state for democrats in this primary contest will be south carolina. pamela in texas. republican caller. what are your thoughts on campaign 2024? caller: i would just like to mention that i am a middle-aged person and i don't hear any candidates talking about the health care system in this country. all my friends, all of my family members, that is one of the number one things on their mind and that they are very not happy with. and it's obvious that our health care system is failing us. th

they include university towns like ames where iowa state is, iowa city, where the university of iowa is. these have the highest level of education, by and large, these counties do. i can put up this filter right here. and you can see, the darker areas have the greatest percentage of noncollege educated voters. lighter, college educated. you can see, all these light areas in places where joe biden did well. does this matter in a republican caucus? the answer is yes. yes, it can. i want to go back to 2016. it's hard to tell. both donald trump and marco rubio are red. but marco rubio is a right red. and you can see, the counties that marco rubio won are in these areas, the college towns, the capital des moines. and marco rubio finished third. it was a strong third, pretty close to first place. this is the type of finish that nikki haley would very much like to see on caucus night tonight. and marco rubio did campaign in that path. one group that thinks that nikki haley is some kind of threat, donald trump and his supporters. why do i say that? if you look at the ad spending in the closi

because he was going to win iowa. he put it all on iowa. his whole ground game is iowa.reer in his home state. but collected his home state during two hurricanes. he humiliated himself when he finally ran home to pretend that he was going to help his state. and neglected it. the highest insurance rates, it's impossible to get insurance in the state. workers are leaving, as latino workers, hispanic workers are leaving because of draconian immigration law that has republicans passed for him. it's hurting the agriculture industry, the construction industry. he's ruined the state and made it and anathema for business. he sue disney, put himself at war with mickey mouse and lost and got cumulated by them. what is he not done that was stupid politically? offer one purpose. he did not want to add, god created a fighter, to get evangelicals to like him, and he's going to finish maybe in the 15's an iowa. he's finished as a politician in florida as a result. >> when rachael said, of course he has moved his whole operation to iowa. it's, like all right, the dude is still governor.

a top iowa republican strategist is here next. >>> it is iowa caucus day. and i've been here over the weekend and spent some time talking to likely caucus goers. i talked to them at rallies and at events with candidates. listen to some of them, starting with a woman who says that she is one of donald trump's biggest fans. >> he says what he's going to do and he's not afraid to do it. he's the one that started building the wall and they all poo-poo'd it. and now, oh, shocker, the wall was kind of a good idea. so maybe we should do that. but -- and with the economy. i know that everything was prospering under donald trump. and he's got a track record that he's already proven. >> if not nikki haley, who else is on your list? >> well, i was decided on desantis until the last debate at drake university. and even though the media said that desantis won, in my mind, after 15 minutes, she won. because of the way she carried herself and she was just convincing to me. and made me decide to vote for her. >> you said you were a trumper for eight years. did you caucus f

because every four years and it is iowa, iowa, iowa, and this is the reason we care about iowa, because these are the folks who trail in the national polls, but they won the national nomination. jimmy carter won iowa and won the nomination. >> came out of nowhere. >> yes. and john kerry in 2004 and who could forget barack obama who trailed hillary clinton in 2008. >> this is explaining why it is a big deal, but every person on the screen is a democrat, and we are talking about the republican caucuses here. >> yes, we are talking about the republican caucuses, and the big gop frontrunners who lost the republican caucuses. ronald reagan, and george bush in 1980, and i was not alive for those campaigns, but you do remember them, and you can recall that these folks got scared and then new hampshire was a real race afterwards. >> in a way, the republican side, the story is who has not won or who didn't win in iowa, correct? >> correct. so if we are just generally sort of talk about iowa caucuses and how predictive they are, the iowa caucuses become the gop nominee and twice, bob dole in '96

and not from the state of iowa.ary: um, i would say that is a first for us but we have actually three different individuals, actually four different individuals from out of state that were tied to the various campaigns that they are going to speak for. they asked if they could come, if we would allow people, and we said sure. we have always left it up to the campaign to determine who they want to be the speaker. we do not put up a requirement for who that is so i feel pretty excited that we have -- i think there's two or three u.s. congress people here that are going to be speaking to the precincts here today. host: i interrupted you. you were about to tell us about the vote that takes place inside. that is one of the next steps in this caucus. it is a secret ballot. why is it called that? gary: it is a ballot. every individual who came and checked in received a ballot and that ballot is their past to get into this secure area. there will be a point in time at the precinct where they will cast that ballot, they will

and joining us from iowa is rick in spencer, iowa. where's spencer, iowa?t portion of iowa. greta: ok. and how would you describe your political philosophy? caller: my political philosophy is primarily independent, but i am going to caucus for the first time in my life this year. greta: and why? caller: why? it is because i've seen enough over the last 10 to 15 years, where it is time for people that have not been involved to get to make the points and get our voices heard. greta: so, which candidate or what is motivating you to come out and caucus? caller: the candidate that has motivated me is ramaswamy. very strong on the constitution. very strong on his plan to make america great again. and just move the country forward. greta: and why not the former president? you just use his tag line. i think the former president will not be allowed or will not be able to get to the final ballot in the general ection. greta: ok. so, you plan to make it out on caucus night when it is going to be some record temperatures with the wind chill. how will you stay warm? cal

iowa and new hampshire get to see what is important for us in a state like iowa or ag is a backgroundry member we have eight legacy of service. these are things people want to talk to the candidate about but importantly it's what is the future of the hard work a candidate on the ground can do to move this? it's called the full grassley for a reason. going out and talking to people on cold nights and makes a difference in where they are going to be and we are going to walk into tomorrow night with people who genuinely are going to have a other neighbors and y members talk with them and some are going to be very open minded about what type of candidate do i want to see become the commcommander-in-chief? it makes not only iowa strong and makes a caucus a really good way to vet this first level of candidates. bret: a really interesting thing on special report tomorrow we will lay out a different way how it ca caucus works but for the t part in an elevator pitch site you'd suck you go into a ballot box and cast a ballot you have got to articulate or go with certain groups in a setting wher

which is momentum riding into iowa. she's we want to be outside of any other candidate outside of donald trump of the 30 point lead over whatever. at the end of the day, iowa has done the job. they have called the field and you no longer have chris christie or mike pence. and if there is any hope there cannot not be three tickets out of iowa but really only two. so i'm looking at who comes in third place and how far that comes down. if nikki haley makes it down into this territory, then they need to skip new hampshire and go straight back to tallahassee. >> that would be a concern with the trump operation in the desantis operation, the have a lot of people on the ground and the same people that did it in 2016. there knocking and dragging foods folks. the couch will not win in the desantis campaign. they have the governor's operation on them. >> the have knocked on doors and they have the governor's people. i don't think complacency will be the issue but for the haley campaign perhaps a little worse and that enthusiasm i

at iowa state fair.devoured just about anything on a stick, pork chops are always a winner. >> enjoy. ready? >> where else, but iowa can candidates ride bumper cars? desantis did with his daughter madison while nikki haley opted for ske, ball, and launching into the iconic rap song "lose yourself." former president donald trump didn't rap, instead he danced at his iowa rally despite his wife's request he stop doing that. darling, i love you, but this is not presidential. you don't dance. ♪ ♪ >> there have been other only in iowa moms like this one in 2015 when marco rubio tried to have a friendly game of football with kids, but instead bumped one little boy on the head. >> if iowa teaches candidates anything it's that voters are listening and what they say can get them into trouble like when mitt romney told caucusgoers in 2011 that corporations are people, too. >> we can raise taxes on people. >> we can take -- of course, they are. corporations are ultimately goes to people. where do you think it goes?

so they're doing a great job in iowa right now.ground getting people out, knocking and dragging people tonight or tomorrow night. so i think you'll continue to see that operation moving forward. >> one ning thing that's intere is he's performing well with college educated women. >> the republican base wants what the republican base wants. it appears that they want donald trump. he's well liked, even by voters in the party who are saying, maybe i'll choose ron desantis, maybe i'll look somewhere else. republicans like donald trump. they like him when he is old donald trump. president donald trump, talking about the policies that those voters liked. they even sometimes like him when he's new donald trump, et cetera. his campaign will try to keep him away from doing too much of that. but he is still donald trump. he is who he says he is. >> this is going to set up a tough rematch for joe biden. >> no question. but i think the point that david and kristen are raising is an extremely significant one, as we move into the general, he's go

traditionally if you think of the iowa democratic caucuses and the iowa republican caucuses, these arehe republican caucuses are different. it's the democratic caucuses. you line up in one corner of the room for one candidate. if you don't get 15% in the first vote, they have another round. it's much more complicated on the democratic side. when it comes to the actual voting in the caucus, it's a ballot, you check off a name, you put it in the box. it really is an election at that point. so it's simpler from that standpoint. >> indeed, but you have to be there, and you have to show up to that high school, and you have to sit it out, and it's a fascinating real process that is wonderful to see, thank you, jacob, and thank you, steve, for bringing us those details. >>> breaking news from israel, where police say one is dead, more than a dozen injured after a car rammed into a group of pedestrians outside tel aviv. >>> plus, an update on the search for survivors after a deadly landslide in colombia. you're watching "josÉ diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. rg this kitchen. (vo) make the switch

iowa city is where the university of iowa is. not coincidentally these are counties that joe biden in the 2020 election also did well in. these are the areas where nikki haley wants to run up the score, run up the vote total if she's going to have a good night. wolf? >> interesting. joining us now s.e. cupp and democratic strategist maria cardona. maria, what is the biden campaign looking forward to in tonight's caucuses? >> i think most importantly to see if the polls play out. if donald trump wins, which i believe he will, but then the key will be what is that margin? does he go up more than 50%? does he keep the margin -- do the candidates keep the margins smaller? that will tell a lot about his strength within the republican base, the republican maga base. that will tell them how competitive he is within his own primary. we all still believe he's going to be the one who comes out on top, but i think this iowa one and then the next couple of states is going to determine how quickly he wraps it up. >> s.e., which of the candida

matter and win iowa, beat trump in iowa. hey did not go for trump in 2016, right, ted cruz won the caucuses then. you could have gone to iowa and said, look, this state has always chosen our best leaders, and this state always had doubts about donald trump, and you were right to have those doubts. and maybe he was a good president for the time that he was in office, as nikki haley said yesterday, i will note, yesterday, not a year ago, that he's good at breaking things, not good at fixing things. there was a time for him. now is the time to move on and lean on iowa. iowans take this job very seriously to ferret out the best person and lean on them to make that hard choice and to leave trump behind. i think if you had done that, you might be able to start something here that could eventually overturn trump. but, you know, the iowa caucuses were created by party leaders decades ago to try to ferret out the best nominee that could get support for the biggest broad base of voters in the country, right? and trump kind of blew up

>> we're going to win in iowa. >> we're going to win iowa. >> governor, do you expect to win the iowa caucuses? >> i think so, yeah. absolutely. >> we're going to win the caucus. we're doing everything that we need to do it. >> we're going to win iowa. >> jonathan: so simple question, are you going to win iowa? >> but you know what? since then i've learned that it's good to be an underdog. when folks want to count you out, when they want to say, oh, this. when they want to cite these polls, i mean, there are supporters here, and i think iowans generally, they roll their eyes at some of these polls because how you can poll a caucus, much less one in negative 22, our voters are ready. they're going to turn out. we've built this great organization. we've got great enthusiasm on the ground. i've visited 99 counties and that's what you need to be able to do well. we're going to do well, but i'd rather have people count us out. i'd rather have people lower expectations for us. i tend to perform better like that. our voters are lined up and we have tens of thousands that have committed to ca

going to iowa. side the bargain is they show up. not just a caucus, which they do but they show up for the events. they show up in the coffee shops in the restaurants and the pizza ranch is there are 72 piece the ranches in iowa. some candidates go have an event at every single one like rick santorum in 2012. so that is the bargain. iowans have loved this bargain it's been a massive economic boom millions and millions of dollars. part of the turnout is not just people interested in politics but it is an iowans having pride in the attention they get. the role their state plays. it's in every four year tradition for many voters in iowa to show up for the caucuses. this year is the republican party. >> what is at stake for these republican presidential candidates tonight? >> a while normally it is very, very exciting. it is exciting this year because so many candidates come to iowa and there is some really close races. most famously in 2016 on the democratic side .02% difference between bernie sanders

the way iowa has done. in one specific county along the minnesota border, this is the county of howard. donald trump was a winner by about six votes. not a ton right there. just about 1.6 percentage points. why am i bringing this up? no county in iowa on all 99 counties, no county in the state, no county in the country has swung more from barack obama to donald trump than howard county. it was plus 21 obama. it was plus 26 donald trump. that's a huge swing for just one area of the country here. we will see how they go tonight and break it down. this border down here with missouri as well. ted cruz, that's a lot when they talk about ted cruz and going after the evangelical voter. you should have seen the caucus site eight years ago. he had families from texas and florida working the phones and trying to drive people out. a lot of what we saw at trump headquarters earlier today over in wayne county. ted cruz strong there as well. then i would say as you take all this in, think about the 10 counties at the bor

she's getting compete for what she says happens after iowa iowa started.d going to new hampshire apparently says it worry if she loses i will usa today" haley's campaign expectations for the iowa caucuses limit evening gearing up for a broke with former president trump. the following week in new hampshire instead. political colonists is the bigger problem breaking her message to voters. god, i want to come to you first about the little quote we had were nikki haley admits you are a different person in every state. >> i'm not sure that's the way to put it, change personalities, you will change your message a little bit and you said it bluntly. i think the iowa caucuses matter a lot to her campaign and desantis campaign. as i said before if he comes in third, is probably like that no matter what they might say, you don't see a path. his people say great trunk support, bob will say energy is huge and they put a lot of work into the place, we are expecting to be expectations, whatever that might say but if nikki haley can catapult into second place, she has a

the significance of iowa, that is iowa term.t? these candidates _ that is iowa term. what is next? these candidates are _ that is iowa term. what is next? these candidates are wasting i that is iowa term. what is next? these candidates are wasting no time, they are packing up from iowa and the attention shifts to a new hamster —— new hampshire —— new hampshire. former president trump, nikki haley and ron desantis will be moving to new hampshire, they have events later today. former president donald trump will make a court appearance on his dutch court appearance on his dutch court appearance on his defamation case but this shift is to the gop primary in new hampshire next week. it is moving very fast on the campaign race for the white house.- moving very fast on the campaign race for the white house. charlie de mar, thank race for the white house. charlie de mar. thank you _ race for the white house. charlie de mar, thank you very _ race for the white house. charlie de mar, thank you very much. - cyclone belal has struck the isl

candidates already barnstorming iowa this weekend. you're seeing just some of what happened on your screen. and for many reasons, these first few primary states at the pivotal and possibly last test of the republican party deciding whether to bring its trump passed into the future. nikki haley, trying to emerge as the one alternative to trump, arguing voters can get mugshot without trump chaos. by just picking her. >> i agree with a lot of his policies. he was really good at breaking things. he just wasn't good at fixing them. and now, we look at the fact, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. >> chaos follows him. and that may sound like a pretty team contrast that she's drawing, but -- trump views haley now as his main possible threat. an establishment hack of sorts. trump's pivot toaley after months of unrelenting attacks against desantisls a new phase, the s. he not threatening only to eclipse desantis for second in iowa, but also to compete with trump in new hampshire, where independents, of course, matter more in that open prim

and we return to iowa now.andidate rivek ramaswamy ended his run for the white house last night after a disappointing finish in the caucuses. the 38-year-old candidate campaigned as someone who could carry on the maga movement, but those voters, well, they opted to largely stay simply with donald trump. ramaswamy only managed to garner 8% of the vote, finishish in a distant fourth place despite having more events in iowa than any other candidate. during his speech ramaswamy announced he would end his white house bid and throw his support behind trump. >> as of this moment we are going to sus spend this presidential campaign, and this is going to have to be -- there is no path for me to be the next president absent things we don't want to see happen in this country. this has to be an american-first candidate in that white house. as i've said since the beginning, there are two american first candidate in this race, and earlier tonight i called donald trump to tell him that i congratulate him on his victory and no

i love iowa. where else can you have 19 degree weather one weekend the next week it is going to be 30 some? >> was there any blowing? >> no. >> you were always going to come out? >> i have some health issues so that has been my biggest issue. >> who is your candidate? >> trump. >> why? >> he has to get in. the country is a mess. he is the guy that is going to get things back where they need to be. some great points were made tonight. he only has four years. i learned a lot at this caucus. that was one thing. i still think he is the guy to get stuff done and he can get it done in four years. >> a couple more folks waiting to chat with us. come on over. what did you think about tonight? how did it go? >> very well. >> what did you like about it? >> i like listening to the different ones who talked about the candidates. just the whole forum. >> what did you like? >> it was my first caucus. i have lived in iowa my whole life. we made it a family event. >> what got you out to this for the first time? >

is that the actual voting in iowa?his all in person would theyguest: everything is n in the iowa caucuses. the state republican party really touts this. everyone gets there at 7:00 p.m.theytheir choice and submit it. the carcass is in charge of every precinct. ■/they tallied the results, do t in front of the room, all the campaigns have a representative. the republican party is very adamant is a transparent process. there is no way for this to be messed with in any real way. those are sent to the republican party. this is a party run system. this is not like a primary election where the state is handling this, this is run by the republican party of iowa. party will receive all those results and that is how those are calculated. the aim is for them to have them by the end of the night monday or in some occurrences with weather and whatever else, it could be early tuesday. that is the timeline we are lookin speaking of the weather, how is it going out there and could that have any impact on turnout? guest:utely. we are g

he will say, no, this is iowa. we are excited to be here for the home stretch in the iowa caucus.ant to thank governor reynolds for her support. as the governor of florida i have a unique window on what goes on in this country because every time one of these blue states does something stupid, i gain more residents in my state. people flee chicago, los angeles, new york, minnesota because the policies are destructive, and the quality of life diminishes, their freedom diminishes. florida has been the refuge people escape to. i talked to people when they come, they talk about how dysfunctional illinois is, how bad california is. when i am in here in the wintertime and i meet iowans on vacation spending part of the year, they are happy with how iowa is governed. they are happy to have governor reynolds and the legislature do such a great job. i see that personally dealing with people from the midwest, how they view iowa. you are lucky to have a strong and effective governor. she has delivered huge results for this state. and clearly, as you look around this region, illinois, minnesota

much flip over iowa period.special status. and i'm just wondering whether that comes back to bite them. i mean, you have to go back to jimmy carter, obviously, for someone who just put it right on the map with that incredible second place performance, but second to uncommitted. and obviously barack obama, it was a big trend setter, he won in 2008, stumbled in new hampshire, it was a battle royale for the mom if nation. we know what happened. nomination. how do you think that affects democrats when the clear signal certainly from the white house is we are so over you? >> yeah, i think the primary process is not helpful to the democrats as it's currently constituted. iowa, new hampshire, both are basically ail again nateing -- alienating democrats in both with states. both now are, frankly, going to lean republican. iowa strongly, new hampshire slightly. and with south carolina the first real, robust test, there's a sense that the process even without a serious opponent is being gamed for the advantage of the whit

today right here in iowa.in the republican agenda as the war rages on in the middle east. our defense secretary remains in the hospital. >> he is following his doctors much orders in consultation with their views in terms of what kind of additional care he needs. and we'll see, you know, when he can get released. obviously they still feel like he may need some additional care. i understand that part of that is just physical therapy. >> steve: well, "fox & friends weekend" co-host and army vet pete hegseth joins us live here in des moines. >> good morning. >> you know what, he went into the hospital on january 1st. here we are up to january 15th, he is a lot sicker than we thought. >> indeed. and he had the initial surgery on, i think deer, 22nd. anthem was rushed back in because of complications. so this has been ongoing for nearly a month. let me tell you, hearing from guys that are serving and vets, they are almost, not quite, but almost as outraged about this as they were about the debacle in afghanistan. o

carried from iowa. chris egger, chairman of the new hampshire republican party, thank you very much for being with us. phil, poppy. >> fascinating conversation, thank you. >>> it was a huge night in politics. it was also a tv's biggest night, succession and "the bear" taking home the big wins. it was also a night filled with television. we'll break down some of the big moments in case you missed them next. >>> a lot of the country in the cold yesterday, it was a good night to bundle up on the couch with the iowa caucuses, the nfl playoffs and the prime time emmys. the award show was delayed four months due to hollywood's twin actors and writers' strikes. it was a night of near sweeps with succession, the bear dominating the categories. >> this is a show about a family, but it's also about when partisan politics get -- partisan news coverage gets intertwined with divisive right wing politics, and after four seasons of satire, as i understand it, that's a problem we have now fixed. [ laughter ] >> yeah, i

state is, iowa city where the university of iowa is, this is a place where moderate to independence have done well, including in 2016, marco rubio, he finished in a close third here, marco rubio actually won in these areas that i circled right there, where there are probably a lot of caucus sites and a lot of precinct you could show off two, maybe that would benefit nikki haley. we will have to see. >> joining us is doug hi, in terms of the ground operation, who has the better ground game? >> without question, donald trump. one of the more interesting things, in the general but also the primary, donald trump has a real professional organization which he didn't have his result was impressive in 2016 yes, he was a force of nature but i was all about organization, and that's why ted cruz actually one. >> trump was a force of nature that merely won't at all. trump doesn't have to work as hard as the other candidates, he gets more attention in whatever he does any's better known by i voters as well so we are going to see trump do very well in counties that ted cruz did. >> it's also an i