ira ceasefire is in the 19905 you had the ira ceasefire is in the 1990s and it sinn fein? political growth took off dramatically from that point. very few people envisage that point. very few people envisage that sinn fein would be the largest party here one day. there is no sign of a ceiling on a sinn fein�*s growth. he wondered if nationalist will be in the ascendancy, albeit in a system in which no whence i can totally dominate the other side. fix, totally dominate the other side. a very big day indeed. it a day for sinn fein, a big day for politics here. right now on bbc news, it is time for unspun world. hello and welcome back to unspun world after our brief break. could it be that russia and ukraine are getting closer to the decisive moment in the war where it could escalate into something really terrifying or maybe sink into a bitter stalemate for years to come? western intelligence, which has been pretty accurate up until now in forecasting president putin's actions, suggests he could soon declare war formally on ukraine and call for a so—called independence vote in the pro—russian areas of eastern ukraine. but is either side showing signs of actually winning? by them not winning, the russians are losing. so the fact that they haven't got the upper hand, psychologically they will feel under pressure as if they're losing. how seriously are the sanctions on russia affecting its thinking? the answer may surprise you. russia's income from selling fossil fuels have doubled in the last two months because of that acceleration, that spike in energy prices. and what about the danger that's hanging over the heads of every single one of us, and which the ukraine war has driven out of our minds for the time being? global warming — the disaster that we've been scarcely talking about. it's the issue that's going to determine, you know, how our descendants live. notjust for the next 50 or 100 years but for literally thousands of years to come. it's often hard to sort out fact from propaganda or wishful thinking. in russia's war on ukraine at the moment, it does seem to be true that the russian forces are still taking heavy losses and that they are, to borrow an expression the americans are using, casualty averse — but they're also making some advances in eastern ukraine. and what are we to make of the bloodcurdling threats on russian state television, that russia could drop a nuclear bomb off the coast of ireland which would destroy the entire british isles? just the words of a blowhard or genuine kremlin thinking? for help with all of this, i turned to gordon carrera, the bbc�*s security correspondent. in a sense, by them not winning, the russians are losing. so the fact they haven't got the upper hand suggests they are not winning, and therefore in many people's eyes, psychologically, they will feel under pressure as if they're losing. even if it's basically turning into a war of attrition between the two sides, which could end up deadlocked. that sense of pressure on the russians to deliver victory, i think, is a problem for them, and at home, as well as on the battlefield. how important is the 9th may, the victory day, do you think, for putin? the link in his mind between celebrating victory in the second world war, and celebrating victory against what he, of course, says is a nazi regime in ukraine would have been clear, and he could have celebrated that, but that's not going to be the case. there's no way that the russians are going to be in a position to mark a victory by that point. so they have a couple of choices. one is to downplay the sense that this is a big moment, and the other option is to, if you like, play it up, and to use it as a moment to talk about mobilisation and to switch from the language of a special military operation to one of war, and to one in which they are talking about mobilising and getting the population behind an actual war. russian television is talking about possible nuclear strikes on britain. how much is that reflecting some kind of official reality? there is a calculated russian strategy to talk about nuclear weapons. now, in a sense, i think that comes from insecurity. i think it's because they know that their military is not succeeding on the battlefield as they hoped. and one of the only ways they have of, if you like, drawing domestic support together is to remind people that they have these nuclear weapons, and that they could use them, and they hope that they can act as a deterrent against western involvement, including upping the supplies of conventional weapons to ukraine. so, i think there is a russian strategy to talk about nuclear weapons. i think some of the things you see on russian tv, the maps, and showing how london could be destroyed, and how quickly — a lot of that is rhetoric, but there is something behind it which is real. i think the question for western leaders is, how far do they see that as a bluff? the americans seem to be moving to a new position, don't they? notjust getting russia to withdraw, but to make sure that russia will never be able to do this again, certainly in the medium term, that it'll be actively defeated. there was a very interesting statement from lloyd austin, the us defence secretary, a week or so ago, in which he talked about weakening russia so that it could not carry out any other invasions like ukraine in the future. now, that is very different from an ambition which is solely focused on ukraine. it is in a sense an escalation of western strategy, and i think it was quite surprising in some ways the us said it out loud, and also said it out loud at the same time that president biden signalled a massive influx of billions more of aid. it signalled the west was, if you like, upping the stakes, of this conflict. and we've seen some response in russia which is saying, well, we are now fighting the west. it's a proxy war. this isn't about ukraine. this is about russia and the west. the russians are right, though, aren't they? i mean, this is — they are fighting nato, it's just that the fingers on the triggers of nato weapons aren't those of nato troops. the supply of nato weapons is overt, they aren't hiding it. it's considerable. it is making a huge difference on the battlefield in killing russian soldiers, but nato is not fighting directly. i suppose that is the line which everyone is looking for, is will that line be held — that there is no direct engagement between nato and russia? major conflicts always have consequences nobody thought about beforehand. the war in ukraine is affecting all sorts of things. oil prices, of course, but also worldwide grain supplies because ukraine is an immensely important grain producer, and fertiliser prices, as well. shortages are already causing problems right across the globe. so, what is the worldwide impact of the war? a question for dharshini david, the bbc�*s global trade correspondent. it's primarily about energy, but it's notjust about energy. if you look at ukraine and russia together, you're talking about a third of the world's wheat, for example. that in itself, you know, if you're talking about disruption to supply, elevated prices, you can see why the likes of the imf start talking about what we're seeing in ukraine as being the equivalent of an economic earthquake with seismic affects notjust in immediately neighbouring countries but around the globe, as well. so, what we're seeing happening over the last two months is likely to have an impact notjust on trade now and in recent weeks but perhaps in years to come, as well, and we're seeing elevated prices for a lot of things. some disruption in terms of shortages. but it could also have far—reaching consequences, when you're talking about the patterns of trade and alliances in years to come, as well. tell me a bit about that. how do you mean — that people will go to other suppliers, but there aren't other supplies of grain very much, are there? if we look at who actually buys this grain from russia and ukraine, it's countries particularly in the middle east and africa who are going to feel the brunt of shortages from that, and, as you say, there's no readily recognisable alternatives to that. and we're talking about people at the lower end of the income scale, aren't we? so when we talk about that kind of impact, we're talking about a greater risk of social unrest. so, we are talking about a fundamental problem that could push people back into deeper poverty than perhaps even the pandemic has. and to go to the question of oil, is russia ever going to be regarded as a reliable source of oil again? in terms of the countries that russia would term as friendly, no. i think those days have now gone and we will be looking for alternative sources of fossil fuels and perhaps putting more emphasis on looking into substitutes and, you know, more carbon friendly alternatives, and that mightjust accelerate that particular process. or it may not. we may have greater reliance on coal in the meantime. but when we talk about the us and the uk, for example. turning their back on russian oil, how much of a difference does it actually make to russia? not that much. we've heard some estimates say that india, for example, has bought more oilfrom russia, taken advantage of a bit of a discount situation, than it had in the whole of 2021 in the last two months. so, you can see how that's being snapped up, and, actually, russia's income from selling fossil fuels — gas, oil — have doubled in the last two months because of that acceleration, that spike in energy prices. but there are other problems for russia in terms of trade, aren't there? already, it is pretty much in recession. we're already seeing prices climbing quite sharply because of what we've been seeing happening with sanctions, as well. we've had a number of big employers pulling out of russia, of course, and that's going to damage in particular moscow and hundreds of thousands ofjobs there likely to have gone already. and output as a whole is likely to suffer quite badly. but, as i say, it's still got these sources of export revenues coming in at the moment, so that's going to cushion some of the blow. go on, depress me more, tell me what's going to happen to the world economy. i mean, it's going to be badly hit, isn't it? we thought we'd climbed out of this pandemic hole, we thought we were getting back to life as normal. 2022 was meant to be the year of full recovery. instead of which, we are talking, particularly for countries which are very close to ukraine, we are talking about the possibility of recession once again. but its expected to be shallow, its expected to be short—lived, and if you want to look on the bright side of all of this, we are talking more and more about resilience. we're talking about something that i haven't really heard mentioned for a few years — which is about security. we're talking about the need to focus on food security, energy security, making sure our health services are bolstered. that, of course, is a legacy from the pandemic. so i think while the short term feels quite painful, we are looking perhaps at strongerfoundations being built at the moment and stronger relationships going forward, and i think that is a reason for optimism. international crises seem to succeed one another so fast nowadays that they wipe out all memory of the previous ones. with the war in ukraine, covid seems like something from the distant past but there's one overwhelming crisis that we ignore at our peril... ..the threat to all of us from the ferocious changes to our climate, which we're imposing on ourselves by the use of fossil fuels. justin rowlatt is the bbc�*s climate editor. it's the issue that's going to determine how our descendants live — notjust for the next 50 or 100 years, but for literally thousands of years to come, and we're at a moment now where the decisions we make now really will be consequential. we really must continue to be mindful of this crucial issue. but we're not, are we? governments around the world are aware that this is a huge problem that's going to affect their communities. we've got that classic issue with climate change, that it's a long term, very serious long—term impact but it's quite slow. so in the normal electoral cycle, it's quite easy for politicians to ignore it. and if you have another pressure on your society, for example an energy crisis, that may change the calculus of decision—making. you may say, well, maybe we'll do a little less of the green stuff and we'll import a bit of coal to cover us through and you probably think we're just papering over a crack. but that is already happening, isn't it? i mean, coal, countries are using coal where they were starting to wean themselves off it? there's definitely, yeah, and even in britain, for example, we were mothballing, i think there's three coal powered fire stations left in the uk, and we decided to extend their life. and countries that are more vulnerable, germany, for example, has increased its coal supplies. south asia's facing this terrible heatwave and, you know, air conditioning use has gone up and the indians are bringing into play all the coal fired power stations they can to meet this huge new demand for electricity. but it could go the other way as well. there definitely will be countries around the world that look at what's happening in ukraine and say, we need energy independence and that means renewable power, power of the sun and the wind and, to a certain extent, nuclear power as well. and the global temperature is continuing to rise? the last ten years have been the ten hottest years in history and that's actually been true for quite a few years now. so what that's telling us is that the average temperatures are continuing to rise and, you know, we regular break records for individual months and then, of course, for whole years. i was reading something incredibly worrying the other day, which said the next great dying, the killing off of large numbers of species, isn'tjust something in the future, it's actually the circumstances are growing right now. is that true? the un says the rate of extinction is approaching the five great extinction events that they can see in the fossil records and they say if they look forward, they're expecting, for example, a million species to go extinct in the next few decades — unless really serious remedial action is taken. but on climate change but also one all the other drivers of biodiversity loss, which are kind of deforestations, the margin of agriculture moving, pollution, all those kinds of things are causing huge impacts on the natural world. it's just that living in western europe, you kind of get the impression that, actually, things aren't too bad. we're doing what we need to do. we're not doing anywhere near what we need to do, are we? the affluence that we experience now is a direct consequence of the huge use of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution. we have barely scratched the surface in terms of moving away from that. yes, some of our, you know, a small... a proportion here in britain, quite a high proportion, 45—50% of our energy at the moment, is coming from renewables of our electricity but not from our total energy. so we still heat our homes with gas. most of our vehicles are still powered by petrol. so, you know, we have an incredibly long way to go and the scale of the transformation needed is arguably one of the biggest challenges humanity have ever faced. ever since covid first appeared in the central chinese city of wuhan, the government in beijing has taken a remarkably unyielding approach to it — locking down anyone who might possibly have come into contact with it... ..forcibly separating children from their parents, shutting down entire towns and cities if necessary. at a time when large parts of the outside world are learning to live with covid, china is still relentlessly trying to stamp it out. fine, but when it comes to locking down shanghai and parts of beijing itself, people start complaining. kerry allen is a chinese media analyst for bbc monitoring. people are literally confined to their homes. they can't even go for a walk orjust go to the shops and get supplies. there's this whole culture going back to the very early era of the communist era of gated communities. so you've got security guards on the gates in people's homes and you can'tjust nip out because there's a security guard who will stop you. so, yeah, people have been, both in shanghai and beijing and other cities as well in the country, if there have been cases of covid—i9, they've not been able to leave their homes. and it could be just one symptomatic case that results in an entire apartment being locked down or sometimes more than one apartment for an entire complex. so people arejust suddenly caught short. they don't know when they might be able to go to work, when they might be able to see friends. they're literally just stuck in their homes and reliant on people bringing them supplies. but who brings them supplies, then? there will be people in other areas that are not under lockdown that will work together, volunteers, to bring supplies to the gate of these communities, but in a situation like shanghai's got, where there are simply too many cases... i mean, there have been around 20,000 a day, both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, there are simply... there's simply nobody to do that, because it can be factories as well and logistics companies, where if there's one case, they can't work, so... one case would bring a factory to a halt? absolutely, yes, and logistics companies have had this situation now where you've literally had people sleeping in tents on the street because they don't want to have a situation where their apartment goes into lockdown or they themselves find themselves stranded in a community. and you are hearing stories also about food shortages and so on? i mean, i've seen a lot of posts on sina weibo, which is china's equivalent of facebook or twitter, ofjust bare vegetable aisles in supermarkets because people are panicking in beijing. shanghai had already seen this and people couldn't get supplies but there have been also posts from people, repeat postsjust coming up again and again, of people saying that when they are getting supplies, they're mouldy or there are problems with food, it's out of date. so, yeah, they've got these supplies and they can't use them. is it creating a real problem for the authorities or is it something they can just clamp down on and control? it is very clear that this zero covid strategy that the government's shown no intention of changing any time soon is really making people feel anxious because they've done everything the government told them to do. they've got vaccinated, they've just maintained exactly what the government wanted them to do and they thought they'd be getting back to normal. but there's still that anxiety ofjust knowing that tomorrow your apartment could go into lockdown. i do read the english language versions of chinese newspapers. the impression you get is that, up till now at any rate, china's been kind of morally superior to the west. is that something that is now kind of a little bit embarrassing? almost every day, there's a message from state media that the west is attacking china on its covid—i9 policy and that the west has not been able to handle covid—i9 well. it really is a telling moment for china because it hasn't changed its strategy in our it's seeing more deaths for the first time since very early on in the pandemic and it is struggling to get on—board with this. especially because people are so frustrated. to south america now, and the extraordinary problems which peru is going through. after only nine months, pedro castillo, a science teacher turned union leader, who became president with virtually no national political experience, is facing a tsunami of strikes, blockades and riots. how has it all gone so wrong? i spoke to guillermo 0lmo, peru correspondent for bbc mundo. well, this is a country that has been in a long political crisis for some time. you need to bear in mind that pedro castillo, the current president, is the fifth president in five years. it also adds to the fact that the pandemic, really, hit hardly peru and the mortality rate here was believed to be as high as anywhere in the world. on top of that, now you have the effects of the war in ukraine hitting the country too, because prices shot up, especially fuel prices and fertiliser prices. also the price of wheat and cereals that the country needs to import and that all makes what seems like a socialist storm that is spreading across the country. that combined with the fact that many of the peruvians that initially believed that president castillo could be a solution for those lasting problems of the country, they feel now that he's not delivering. and of course he's not a career politician. for most of his time he's been a peasant and a teacher in a small school in a very small village in the andes of peru. it's a very isolated area and that can give you an idea of his mindset, of where he comes from. i would say that's a factor very relevant because it poses a sharp contradiction with the politicians and the people he has to be with now that he's the president of peru here in lima. so it's a combination of not particularly distinguished leadership and also heavy economic problems? since the beginning of his term as the president, he has been facing strong criticism from the media outlets, strong criticism from the opposition. when he won the election, as it happened in the us with donald trump and joe biden, keiko fujimori, his rival, didn't recognise the result. she asked for a recount of the votes that took weeks, that also undermined his perceived legitimacy. but, again, we should not forget that he is the fifth president of peru since 2017, so it seems that governing this country is not an easyjob for anyone! now, of course, traditionally, the solution in most of latin america has always been that some strongman would move in. is that now a possibility in peru? this is a country still having a hard time with the legacy of alberto fujimori, who was the last strongman of peru. he ran the country from 1990—2000 and he's now injail because he committed human rights violations, and his legacy is still quite controversial. his daughter, keiko fujimori, was mr castillo's rival in the election and many analysts explained the success of pedro castillo simply because of the fact that his rival was alberto fujimori's daughter. president castillo, of course, has been proposing the idea of a referendum on the constitution, to change the constitution in ways to make it more effective in his terms. is that going to happen? this is, i would say, an historical trend in the latin american left and these left—leaning movements always want to push for constitutional change to start a new economic and political model and that's what mr castillo is trying now, especially to appease the people within his own grounds that are unhappy with how he is delivering. i don't think that's going to happen, especially because most parties in congress have already opposed the initiative. guillermo 0lmo of bbc mundo talking to me from lima. every 9th may, russia celebrates victory day — an immense, proud ceremony nationwide marking the defeat of nazi germany. without russia, the western allies would have taken years longer to defeat hitler, if indeed they ever would have. the russian army in ukraine now isn't showing any of the drive and determination it showed against nazi germany, but it would be a huge mistake to think that this war is won or lost yet and it could easily end with no clear outcome, in nasty, embittered circumstances which could poison the international atmosphere for years to come. the fact is, even after ten weeks, it's still too early to know. well, that's it from the unspun world team and from me. until we meet again, goodbye. hello, some places have certainly seen at more saturday sunshine than others. there was quite a lot of cloud across some northern and eastern parts of the uk. as we go through tonight, areas of cloud likely to drift westwards across england into wales. some of this cloud likely to linger across eastern scotland. at the same time, cloud will roll into towards northern ireland and at the far west of scotland. a bit of rain turning up here by the end of the night. temperatures for most holding up, it will be relatively mild but quite chilly for some eastern parts of scotland and eastern england. tomorrow, a bit cloudy and murky to start, we could hold on to some mist and fog for some western coast. but we will see some good spells of sunshine. small chance for a shower in north wales, northern england, southern scotland, and some of that extra cloud into northern ireland. in the far north—west of scotland, some patchy rain for a few places here. temperatures struggling a little for the east coast but elsewhere, 18—20 . very warm in the south of us start the new week, but some rain further north and west. that will sink a little bit further south—eastwards towards the middle part of the week. this is bbc news — with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. irish nationalists celebrate a watershed moment in northern ireland — as sinn fein wins the most seats in assembly elections. today ushers in a new era, which i believe presents us all with an opportunity to reimagine relationships in this society. the result is a huge breakthrough for a party once linked with the ira belfast for the latest. also on the programme: ukraine says all women, children and the elderly have now been evacuated from azovstal steel plant in the city of mariupol. rights in afghanistan under a new attack —
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