that number comes from using the ism survey. every time it crosses 50 since 1948 gives you a 65% chance of recession. the ism correlates perfectly with the gdp. i don't see what she is saying. i think citibank is right. the numbers are there. clear to see. >> it's great to have your analysis today. raoul pal. we've been speaking to raoul on the show more than a year now and he nailed every call he made. >> it's important to remember when you think about the dollar, this has been a safe haven trade, the dollar treasuries have. if you get what he thinks is going to happen to the globe, you're going to see investors flood back to those safe haven trades. this could be an opportunity. it doesn't mean you have to buy this dip in equities. if they prop them up, you'll have the same sell-off we had the last two januarys, 5% peak-to-trough early february. there will be an opportunity to sell the close in december. >> if you want another way to play what raoul is talking about, look at the high yield debt. default rates are sky high back

curiously, job growth in the ism survey did pick up in manufacturing. to the extent that it's weakness comes from the oil patch and brings low prices for consumers which is a help to the economy. and other data was pretty strong. construction spending in october topping estimates of car sales. looks to stop 18 million units historically for the third month in a row. more widespread weakness in the friday jobs report, the fed will probably plow ahead with higher rates this month. that's the consensus. >> do you buy the argument that it is mostly dollar related and china related or is there something else going on? >> i think those are the proximate causes. >> we just have too much stuff around the world. >> and not enough demand. >> that will do it to you every time. >> especially when the cost of the terms of trade is like that. >> thank you. >> we did see big demand was in auto sales. another big month for them. phil lebeau, bring us the numbers. [ no audio ] >> -- third straight month with the sales rate above 18 million vehicles. that never happened

ism manufacturing data , betty.things off a bit it started off so well. , the china data, looking on the bright side of life. expandedvices sector as well. we had factory growth in november. unemployment unexpectedly fell to 10.7% in october. manufacturing growth cool in november, but interestingly, the survey said manufacturing did maintain its positive start for the quarter. so, betty, i'm blaming you. it is it your manufacturing data that caused the flaw in the narrative. betty: [laughter] the traitors did react well to the stress tests of the banks in england. mark: yes, they were. passed theanks stress tests. a couple did not do so well. they fell on a couple of issues, but the likes of standard chartered, rbs, they have announced capital raising plans. there was some concern that they might need to renounce new measures, betty -- to announce new measures, betty. let's be fair, betty. they were more wide-ranging tests than last year and took into account emerging markets exposure. so, those banks like standard chartered and hsb were really under the magnifying glass. a good day.

no, but it is a status like welcome-ism.are happy you are here. >> we will practice some commercial-ism where a full 90 minutes of news including the search for a man accused of two attempted kidnapping in the south bay and new detail on what you may notice on the we morning commute and the winter weather. commute and the winter weather. stay tuned. great change comes from doing the right thing. like the radical idea that health isn't an industry. it's a cause. so we do things differently. we combine care and coverage. and believe prevention is the most powerful of cures. so forgive us for not going with the flow. we just think the flow should go with us. which makes us rebels with one cause. your health. >>> live from the kgo-tv broadcast center this is abc7 news. >>> it is 5:29. i am kristen sze. >> i am eric thomas. >> grab a jacket. it is cold. mike? >> mid-30s to mid-40s. bone dry air. if your skin is dry that is why. if you have a humidifier, a good time to use it. looking to san francisco, the 2012 -- day planner show

ism and ted cruz firing back, but not at another candidate. why a cartoon has the senator slamming a newspaper. >> this is 7news "today in new england." >> sarah: good thursday morning, everybody. happy christmas eve. thanks for joining us. i'm sarah french. >> christa: i'm christa delcamp. we did have some heavy rain overnight. minor flooding to talk about, as well. we'll show you the scene in wareham. you can see cars just getting stuck. this is cranberry highway. they tried to drive through the floodwaters which people will always say, don't do it, don't take the risk. tow trucks came in. they had to pull a couple people out of their cars. so here's our scene on this day before christmas. i guess at least it's not snow, chris. >> chris: certainly makes quite a mess. the motto: turn around, don't drown. we have copious amounts of rain as we went through the overnight hours. new bedford 2 and a half inches of rain, 2 in taunton. when it falls in a quick period of time, you get the street flooding we've seen down. there the heaviest rain is of

ism thanks, chris. santa headed back to the north pole. even though he was busy delivering all those gift, he definitely packed on the pounds. and milk left out for old saint nick, he ate about $1.1 billion calories. that's how many calories, 563,000 adults eat every day. it will take santa 203 years of swimming rap, 235 years of resistance training or a century of running to burn off all those calories. i teal -- feel like we've come close to that between all the cookies in the break room. holidays are not over yet, but shoppers are already planning their gift returns. according to a survey by american express, 8% of shoppers plan the hit the stores tomorrow to return or exchange gifts that they received. experts say an increase in online shopping is to blame. most shoppers place orders without ever seeing the product in person. and they guess onering -- on everything from size to the style. >> nancy: that's what happens when you last-minute shop. >> sarah: i go to the mall their gift, i know they like it. then i wrap it up on christmas.

ism aren't those fur seals so cute? >> christa: i think his seal had a better repertoire. >> jeremy: seal of approval? where's kris anderson? mix of day. clouds and sunshine, mid-30s this morning. headed for the 50s this afternoon. >> danielle: good morning, everyone. happy monday. expressway, well, it's slowing down from the braintree split into boston. that's about a 25-minute drive. and then if you're taking the "t" on the blue line, we have minor eastbound delays. we'll be right discover unexpected treasures, pfor the people who least expect it. find thoughtful gifts at amazing prices everyday jeb bush: here's the truth you will not hear from our president: we are at war with radical islamic terrorism. it is the struggle that will determine the fate of the free world. the united states should not delay in leading a global coalition to take out isis with overwhelming force. their aim is our total destruction. we can't withdraw from this threat or negotiate with it. we have but one choice: to defeat it. vo: right to r

it' s a suffix -- ism. as in a racism, terrorism, capitalism, terrorism. the company began picking a word of the year in 2003. i wish it shows an intelligent word. give us a word. angst for joining us. >> jimmy kimmel-ism praised as one of america's best mayors who governed as a pragmatist. bernie sanders passed more amendments in a republican congress than any other member. cracked the gridlock with john mccain to strengthen veterans' healthcare. bernie sanders. a consistent, principled, and effective leader. building a future to believe in. sanders: i'm bernie sanders people are working harder than ever, but the everyday cost of perscriptions, child care, or even just buying groceries can be a stretch for too many hillary's plan: raise the minimum wage, get equal pay for women, cut taxes for the middle class, and new incentives for business to share profits with employees instead of just rewarding ceos. those at the top are doing just fine. it's your family that needs a raise. i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. hey! this holiday, u.s. cellu

it's the suffix 'ism', according to merriam-webster. the company says it's a serious year, full of all kinds of isms, socialism, fascism, racism, feminism, communism, capitalism, and terrorism. shaina: they thought it was a fitting thing to go with, i guess. eric, you know a woman who probably knows all the 'ism' words and then some. eric: yes, eddye vanderkwaak is graduating from drake university this weekend, and her story is incredible. eddye vanderkwaak: my graduation is so symbolic because it represents the fight that i've that were stacked against me. eric: and they were some tough odds. eddye vanderkwaak is a foster kid. she bounced around, living in 23 different places while growing up. her story of how she came to drake university, who helped her at just the right time, and how she managed to succeed where so many others don't, is very compelling. it's online at kcci.com for you to watch. i also put together a this is iowa extra and i posted that to my facebook page. she was so eloquent, great to listen to. i had trouble puttin

ism we're so happy to have that guy. sorry about that. >> christa: we'll move on to this week's "who did it better?" you have it locked up. you took on injured patriots' running back dion lewis at the new england aquarium before he was injured. >> jadiann: right. he agreed to do this. he was healthy as a lark, as we would say back home, when we shot this one. we went out to the new england aquarium. such a fun place, i worked with and dion worked with a fur seal named ursula. >> christa: ursula really stole the show, we have to say. and there was a write-in candidate movement launched by j.r., but in the end he voted for you, and so did a lot of other people because you won it. >> jadiann: yay. >> christa: 58% of the vote. you see here dion lewis 42%. so jadiann, you have four win, two losses. >> jadiann: i was nervous about that one. >> christa: time for your speech. >> jadiann: thank you. i'd like to thank the academy, all the loyal viewers. i lost last week. i needed a self-esteem boost. thanks, guys. appreciate that.

ism and help is on the way. how much federal money massachusetts is expected to get to help recovery from last year's winter. >> jeremy: and we're tracking some isolated showers and sprinkles for the next 30 to 45 minutes. and then we focus on getting the sun in here. that will happen mid-day or this afternoon. pleasant temp, middle 40s. this afternoon middle 50s. fall wardrobe. don't need the coat today. >> danielle: expressway not looking too bad. the braintree split just about ten minutes into boston. we'll be right back. red 97! set! red 97! did you say 97? you know, that 97% customer satisfaction rating. helped by geico's fast and friendly claims service. huh... oh yeah, baby. friendly as it gets. geico. expect great >> jeremy: good morning. these orange squares. a warm day in the month of december. temps five to six degrees above normal. looking to stay mild through the middle of next week. jetstream is looking like this, which is not allowing arctic air to come down into the northeast. now, there are some

. >>> ism, not really a word. merriam-webster made an announcement this morning saying people are looking at specif specific isms. fascism, racism, capitalism, and feminism. so remember when oxford dictionary made the emoji the word of the year and now this? >> now this is more of a concept. people are trying to educate themselves and look up different isms. that make sense to me. it is still not a word. >>> 6:20. >> let's check in with tom kierein to find out what kind of day we're going to have weatherwise. first to melissa mollet and the first 4 traffic. >> breaking news, outer loop at georgia is where the crash is. we're seeing a 2 1/2 to 3 mile delay as you approach that. chopper zooms up here, you see some delays coming on the outer loop of the beltway this morning. emergency road work here, blocking some lanes that is still hanging around, hoping it would be out of the way for folks here by now this morning. 95 here at lorton road, crash just after lorton road in the middle of the roadway. does not seem to

ism. >> merriam-webster made the announcement this morning. people are looking at specific isms, the top ones are words you can imagine, socialism, fascism, capitalism, and feminism. >> ism is not a word. >> it is a suffix, not a word. remember the emoji that became the -- i mean, i can't with all this. >>> he's been on the air with nbc for 65 years. dear friend and colleague willard scott is retiring. willard was our weather man here in washington for many years. he worked alongside jim vance back in the '70s. vance will be among those who will be back at willard's remarkable year on news 4 at 6:00 tonight. that's what they had instead of green screen. the "today" show will pay tribute to willard. al roker will be with him on his farm in virginia. huge congratulations. willard was the preeminent weather man before we had weather men. >> yeah. >> cool guy. tom kierein is now the end all and be all. >> there you go. >> you worked with willard for a while too. >> last time i saw willard in the hall here, i said, are you on social media? he said,

because if you take a look at the ism manufacturing print yesterday that was the weakest print since 2009. the last time the ism manufacturing print was at this level, ben bernanke opened the qe taps further. should there be a rethink as to whether we move ahead with the first rate hike in december? >> absolutely not. that's one figure. a lot of the other figures are much more positive. i think the fed in general has a lot of pressure to raise rates for a couple of different reasons. one they have been artificially low. the fed is what we call a misallocation of resources. that's money chasing yield. you're seeing it in the high yield bond market where you see bonds that used to yield 12 or 13%. now yielding 6, 7, 8%. you're getting people involved in deals where it doesn't make a lot of sense. we have to get back to normalcy in a rate environment and maybe i'm too optimistic but i think the economy is doing fine and coming back well and the unemployment number is probably janet yellen's major, major target of what she looks at and those numbers are very, very good. they're very stro

ism holiday clean-up comes a little early for one family. why they were told their christmas tree had to come down. >> christa: and one juror who convicted aaron hernandez back in the spotlight. why the former nfl star's attorneys want to speak with him. >> sarah: and a construction worker on the mend after a slab >> this is 7news "today in new england." >> christa: good morning, everybody. it is wednesday. i'm christa delcamp. >> sarah: and i'm french french. thanks for joining thus morning. let's send it over the. >> bri: with more on our forecast. hey there, bri. >> bri: good morning, ladies. we're looking at some fog out there. visibility under a mail in most locations from nashua stretching down to new bedford. southeastern mass was a dense fog advisory through 10:00 a.m., but there will be areas that continue to see fog throughout the day. the good news is temperatures are above freezing, even in some of these colder spots you're seeing in the mid-30s. we're not worried about any black ice forming on the roads as this warm front creeps

ism manufacturing in contraction has predicted 10 out of the last three recessions.great predictor of where the economy is going. >> you know, fascinated about where you think the markets will, you describe them at resilient even though we only had a 2% gain in the s&p 500. to think next year will you get an 8.5% return, a lot of the big houses are demonstrably more cautious now about what will happen next year, particularly in the second half of the year. how do you square your optimism with their caution? >> simon, very much like we talked about in the past. it's oftentimes intellectually stimulating to be negative all of the time. we hear a lot of that. the major concerns we see as headwinds in the economy and for this market at some point in time will dissipate. the strong dollar has its limits. the die ververgent monetary pol will have limits. we're forgetting things like u.s. auto industry -- >> the view is that that's going to peak. that's parent of -- i understand your view that journalists and tv are often negative, i get that's your view, but these are hous

the ism took a bit of a nosedive. slowest since 2009.st time under 50 since 2012, and the last several times that happened we didn't look forward to a tightening in the market. we're going to talk about all that after the break. eligibility? ching medie you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesn't, saving you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you've learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later. that's what it means to go long™. call now and request this free decision guide. it's full of information on medicare and the range of aarp medicare supplement plans to choose from based on your needs and b

ism more than 90 people are mitzing this morning after a landslide in china. you can see dust and mud rising from collapsing buildings as the landslide hit them. authorities say more than 900 residents were affected and more than 1,500 people were involved in rescue operations. >> christa: now to the race for the white house, and a busy day on the campaign trail in new hampshire today. jeb bush, ben carson, chris christie, john canners and martin o'malley along with marco rubio will all hole event in the granite state, new hampshire's first in the nation primary is set for february 9th. it's approaching here. hillary clinton mean-time targeting donald trump during the democratic debit. she said that's encouraging terrorists with his rhetoric and now the republican front-runner >> he is becoming isis' best recruiter. they are going to people showing videos of donald trump insulting islam and muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists. >> nobody has been able to back that up. it's nonsense. it's just another hillary lie. she lies like crazy about everyth

. /// ((sharie johnson)) > there's a "ism". merriam webster picked ism because many people have looked up several words that contain the suffix this year... racism, feminism, and terrorism.. last year, the dictionary picked "culture" for its word of the year./// ((brian loftus)) > increasing > increasing the bail...for a man accused of kidnapping and sexually assaulting a girl... ((sharie johnson)) why the judge says he felt he needed to raise it to 1- point-2 million dollars./// > two people.. shot and killed by police in two separate incidents yesterday. what police say caused officers to open fire. ((michael stevens)) > the last republican debate of 2015 is going on tonight... right here in las vegas. michael stevens is live with what we can expect from the debate. ((sharie johnson)) > signing up... before taking flight... how long users have to register their drones... and why the government is making it a requirement./// < welcome to a brighter morning, this is 8 newsnow with kirsten joyce, sherry swensk, demetria obilor a

ism me, too. >> christa: holiday helping time. we're making holiday recipes for a good cause. >> sarah: to kick things off, i'm heading into my kitchen with my family. this is my mom's recipe, a breakfast casserole. i hope you enjoy my holiday helping. welcome to our home. our family has grown since last year. this is baby blair. she's sleeping right now. you know my husband chris and, of course, buddy. behind us is my mom. we're making her sausage and egg casserole. it's family tradition to have it every christmas morning. we can't wait to show it to you, so let's get cooking. okay. mom, what's first thing we need to do? >> we're going to crack the eggs in the bowl. >> sarah: okay. you just hold the baby. >> i know. that's what i like to do best. >> sarah: before we add anything else, we're going the beat the eggs. how is that? are you looking? are you going to be a cook? >> now we have to add the milk, dry mustard and salt. >> >> sarah: we're calling in the chef of the house, my husband chris, to add the main ingredient. >> and

sanders: i'm bernie sanders ism now to some wild weather. a tornado may have hit in the southwestern corner of washington state. take a look at. this strong winds damaged homes and commercial buildings in the small city of battleground. this was on thursday. thankfully no injuries have been reported. the national weather service is now working to confirm whether that was a tornado that caused all of that damage. >> christa: j.r. was just rare this time of year, but clearly it happens there and left behind quite a bit of damage. >> jeremy: nasty stuff out there. eventually that weather system finds its way up into new england monday, not with tornadoes, but with some rain on the way for early next week. today we focus on fog this morn, dense fog. that just becomes a lot of clouds this afternoon. some sun out there this afternoon. weekend, mild tomorrow. temps tomorrow upper 50s to around 60. this here is a change from my thinking earlier in the week. it does not look much cooler on sunday, an i'll explain why in just a second. here's the fog.

[singing "star wars" theme music]ism he's amazing. i'm telling you what. >> christa: it kind of reminds me of "brady bunch" "star wars." there was a story. >> sarah: i love it. >> christa: so he's thing the "star wars" theme song with some of the stars of the cast of the film. at one point they dressed up as storm troopers. harrison ford and carrie fisher made cameos at the end. i have to see that full length coming up. >> sarah: spoiler alert. i didn't stay up to watch it. so spoiler to me, "the voice" wrapping up season nine. the winner is jordan smith. the kentucky native wins contract. coming in second, emily ann roberts, but he was incredible. just incredible. >> christa: i know you're a huge fan of "the voice." sarah. >> sarah: i like those singing shows. >> christa: i get the cliff >> jeremy: it is. i'm with you on that one. sarah briefs me on this stuff. >> sarah: and you brief me on "star wars." >> jeremy: jason smith. >> sarah: no, jordan smith. we've been over this, j.r. bedford 40. some wind out there. that fades away duri

ism showing contraction, unexpected contraction. at the intraday chart, you can more clearly see the reaction in the wake of those numbers that came out at 10 a.m. if you look at the s&p 500, you we saw, the come down although stocks have recovered since then. this is a delayed reaction to this manufacturing numbers. it has been uneven. the biggest contraction we have seen since june of 2009. betty: right. tell us what is leading the rally though today. what is outperforming? a broad-based rally. you will see all 10 industry groups are in the green today. not a spot of red on the wheel we like to look at. health care is the best performing group, followed by tech and financials. within health care, big cap health care getting a boost from barclays with high recommendations for j&j, it eli lilly, and merck today. they will bolster their pipelines, which would be preferable to more tax and version. -- tax in version. n. tax inversio i also wanted to point out one individual stop doing well today and that is consol energy. in see the s

they did t an "ism." >>> the why.n tonight's debate, but another debate has yet another chapter. rob manford announced he would not lift pete rose's ban from baseball. as for the why. rose had a press conference today. >> you lose some, you win some. and you get rained out unless you're in the dome. it's just part of life. if i could change the way my life was lived, obviously, i would change. >> and to all my political reporter friends in las vegas, pete rose is in vegas. go find him. i guarantee you he's got something to say about tonight's debate. >>> up next, the role fear will play in tonight's debate and the rest of the 2016 campaign. stay tuned. (donkey noise) (elephant noise) (mic screech) there's a big difference between making noise... (mic tap) ...and making sense. (elephant noise) (donkey noise) when it comes to social security, we need more than lip service. our next president needs a real plan to keep social security strong. (elephant noise) hey candidates! enough talk. give us a plan. ♪ [ girl ] my mom,

so a brief outline, i will talk briefly about putin -ism. it will be brief because of the time constraints. i will give an overview of the system generally and then i'll say a bit about how it was evolving before you're my don, before 2013, 2014. then we'll talk about how it has changed in the last few years after the ukrainian event. we'll talk briefly about the implication and changes it has gone through since 2014. nikolai will say more about that in his presentation. the big claim i'm going to make is that over the last two years russia has moved into a mobilization role in response to the quote, unquote emergency situation they find themselves in. this is a short-term temptation and a medium-term trap. the temptation is it is easier to rule them to govern and what i mean by that distinction, i hope will will become clear during the talk. the trap is that when you rely on ruling rather than governing you often are prone to make mistakes. state policy becomes an effective and ultimately you take steps that we can the system in the country

ism. the word people search for the some of the top terms searched, socialism, fascism, racism. >> next year it's going to be ing. >> people searching singing. >> yeah. >> like oxford there was the year with the emoji, happy face with the tears. people rejected it. we can't win. >> linguists are not having a good year apparently. ism, yeah, not really a word. >> not a word. it's a suffix. we digress. >> let's get to weatherism. 62. we've lost a few degrees. slide down to the mid to upper 50s. this is incredibly above normal for this time of the year. again, look for clouds giving way to some occasional sunshine. turns breezy. sprinkles early this morning should dissipate and end. 62 mid afternoon temperature. tonight a little bit chillier. closer to the normal high temperature. some 30s in the suburbs. another stormy day possible thursday and then more seasonal weather by the weekend. >> sounds good. >> what's happening, emily? >> subway delays. a couple of trouble spots due to signal prob

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the ism went below 50, the last time the fed raised rates when the ism was below 50 was 1981. reagan was in the white house, welker was at the fed and inflation was 10% so that raises some questions. secondarily we may get a surprise on friday because the nonfarm payrolls will not get a benefit from the birth death model that adds things in. in october it added in 163,000, which is typical of october. in november it tends to be flat to minus. so there is an outside risk that the payroll numbers could be under $150,000, lots of questions for the fed. >> gerard, it wasn't just a headline number on that murlg index, it was the new orders that went below 50 as well. historically what does that mean for the performance of credit and against a fed that's supposedly about to tighten? >> it could be a concern out there and some disappointment with that manufacturing number out there, but ultimately we take the view that the fed ultimately will now lift off in december, unless there is a really, really bad nfp number out on friday. we don't believe that's the case, we think the fed wil

torsten: one of the best leading indicators is the ism manufacturing indicator.hat flashing that the economy is in a recession is a real worry. the u.s. economy has been hit by two shots lately, the higher dollar. that is why this divergence between manufacturing and services has persisted for 16 months or so. we still think the economy will be able to hold up. scarlet: janet yellen said that economic growth is sufficient percent -- further improvement in the labor market. in what way?s, does it need to reach the mid-4% range like it did in 2007? torsten: that is completely unclear. 6% andecently, they said they would consider hiking rates. now it is 5%. scarlet: the goal post has moved. torsten: the fed has been too optimistic. we have been too optimistic. i think it is safe to say, at the moment, that at 5%, we are moving closer to average earnings starting the trend higher. it must -- it must be getting the fed's attention. jump,ast month was a nice but it is not like there has been overwhelming consistency on this number, that it is moving higher. why not wai

the vast, vast, vast majority of whom are peaceful, who believe freedom,ism, democracy, individual rights. i told our members this morning to always strive to live up to our highest ideals, to uphold those principles in the we swearion on which every two years we will defend. that's why we are here and that why we are going to stay here to do the people's house and do work.ople's and i thank the speaker thank will for their work. i want to make. will talked about the visa waiverthe program introduced by candace miller. of legislation passed out of committee months ago in march unanimously. that wille task force served on in homeland the recommendations. points, there's 38 countries in this program out of 196 around the world. but the program allows an individual to travel to other auntries not by ever getting visa or have communications or interview simply online. if there's a visa lost or stolen, who's that person coming into your country? if you don't have an e-passport, biometrics like america does, do you really trace who that individual is? but the biggest fear that i have so many in

>>>erion webster has declared its word of the year and it's ism -- not a word at all. adding ism. one includes socialism, racism, feminism and capitalism. say that fast. the runner up for word of the year is minions. all right. >>> here at the big board with the big talkers and big algations for a big hair care product. wen promises to stren enhair but women are suing because they claim it made them go bald. here are the pictures provided by the law firm. the product described as a natural cleansing conditioner called baldness, rashes and hair breakage and hair discoloration, they are all sold by stylist chaz dean and they go for $30 a bottle and a spokesperson for wen says there is no scientific evidence and we plan to fight the allegations against the product, but 200 women say they are losing hair as a result. >> and it seems to be a hot button question this year, is there a war on christmas, 36 house republicans say there is, colorado congressman doug lamborn created the resolution to protect the symbols of christmas for those that celebrate. he estimates it's 95% of americans

we had an ism manufacturing reading of 48.6, down from 50.1 in october, and the worst number since june09. that was back in the heart of the great recession. remember, anything below that level of 50 in this incredibly important institute for supply management gauge signifies contraction. the 48 number is shocking. shockingly bad. if the pearl funds rate were around 2%, we would be buying stocks in anticipation of a rate cut, after seeing this number. more important, those of us who have been around for a while recognize that while we would all be talking about how our economy could be thrown into a recession by aggressive action from the fed after this ism number, anything beyond a one and done rate hike could be considered a suicide mission for american manufacturing back then. the more important question might be, does it even matter anymore to the fed? are there enough manufacturing jobs left in the u.s. that it could really make an impact on the broader, far more service-oriented economy? we're not china. their current readings are roiling every manufacturing industry in the world.

ism i'm sarah french. a lot of people staying up late, j.r., watching the pats get their win, and maybe up early this morning to see you "star wars" series. >> jeremy: hopefully so. a lot of fun with that. and great win last night, back on top. boston 46. bedford 46. fitchburg at 44. nice and mild out there this morning. the day will feature mostly cloudy skies. at times through the day there may be a little sprinkle activity or some mist, but nothing heavy or widespread. here's what we are tracking. some showers now in chicago are flying east. they'll be into new england about 8:00, 9:00. there could be an isolated shower on the back side of the evening commute, but otherwise you day is dry. a mild day. temps 40s this morning. 7:00 this evening, warmer, 50s. >> christa: let's see if danielle gersh has good news for us, as well. >> danielle: not a manic monday yet. go outside. the expressway shows volume building as you head northbound. on the map, a little slowing 95 northbound as you head up to canton. r

lots of isms. now that takes on its own identity. >>> new figures out this morning showing an alarming rise in a certain type of crime on the subway. >> plus a coffee shop employee serving up some dissatisfaction l eland? abc7 and your tri-state ford dealers thank you for helping protect our children. >>> it is 6:52. the number of sex crimes reported on new york city subways is on the rice. investigators say there were january and november of this year. now that's 100 more than lastier. the most common crimes are groping, public lewdness and unwanted surveillance. the nypd says the higher numbers are in part because ridders are more serious about taking pictures of the incidents and reporting them. >>> 5:3 a food fight between a customer and an employee at a drive through window heats up. check this out. as a tim horton's worker throws hot coffee at a customer's car in michigan. the customer says he refused the coffee after an employee would not throw away a cup of cold coffee for him. the customer

ism. >> christa: and a bold message in bold print. how this front page about the mass shooting is part of a political firestorm this morning. won: my moand i hathe sa hands. sa eyes. sa laugh. ansince shs had morate alzheir's disee, i' discoved we havthe sa fightinspirit, o. th's why isked r doct about neonce-a-d namzari . vonew namzic is apoved fomoderateo severe aleimer's sease inatients oare cuently tang, ancan contue to take ctain dos ofoth namea and dopezil. nenamzarics the fitand on treatme aleimer's dicines in a singlonce-a-d capsule th works 2ays toight theymptoms ofoderate severe alzheir's disee. on-a-day nzaric maimprove cognitn and ovall funcon anmay slowhe worseng of sympts for a ile. naaric doenot chanhow thdisease ogresses ithouldn'te taken anyone allerg to memaine, dopezil, peridine orny of thingrediesin namric. bere startg treatmt, te the docr about ymedicaconditio they ha... inuding hetor lung oblems, seures, stach ulce, blder, kidy, or liv problem te the docr if theatient ll havany procures inlving anthesia, ich maca

ism breaking news in lynn. police are searching for a driver who crashed into a building and took offer. oliverio sol live at the scene. nicole, what can you tell us? >> nicole: well, police at this hour are the still searching for that driver. we're still trying to figure out what led this car to crash through the walnut street coffee cafe early this morning, but we believe the initial call came in as a driver who was fleeing a traffic stop. you can see crews now trying to board up the front of this storefront which was completely opened up by the car. you can take a look and see that while jeep went right through the bakery here. now, fortunately there was no one inside at the time. we're told there were no injuries, but the damage is extensive. the front of the building completely blown out. you can take a live look here and you see crews have been trying the clean up and security what they cmple it's unclear if this bidding will be able to open. we know the owner has already come and gone from the scene. he

ism still ahead, concerns on campus. the northeastern university community holding out hope for a student who has been missing since last month. >> christa: an engaging donation. a local branch of the salvation army getting subpoena added sparkle after someone drops this diamond ring into a kettle. catch holiday-cookie cheer on the tip of your tongue with dunkin' donuts' holiday- cookie-flavored coffees. enjoy any medium latte or macchiato for $1.99. america runs on dunkin'. mornings. crazy mornings. we figure you probably don't that's why at xfinity we're hard at work, building new apps like this one that lets you choose a time for us to call you. so instead of we'll call you when things are just as wonderful... [phone rings] but a little less crazy. we're doing everything the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. dunkin's new sweet black pepper bacon sandwich, caramelized crispy pepper bacon. it's the bacon experience you've been waiting for. bacon up. >> jeremy: good

ism i'm jadiann thompson. jeremy, i may be speaking out of turn, but seems like a good start to december. >> jeremy: no snow. >> jadiann: all things considered. >> jeremy: dry morning commute. boston 34 at this time. bedford 21. norwood 21. origin at 21678 it's cold. we are tracking some rain, which if you have business travel that takes you into western new england this morning, heads up. there may be a little freezing rain berkshires, springfield, up toward hartford and even for us, worcester, boston, a few sprinkles mid-day and a few showers this afternoon, but at that time temperatures safely above 32. but you do need the rain gear for late this afternoon and this evening. it's a chilly, raw day, despite the fact there won't be any concern of ice. it will be a slow process to move those temps. only in the upper 30s to around 40 this afternoon. >> christa: okay. let's go to fast track traffic with our new traffic reporter. danielle? >> danielle: thank you, crystal. the expressway northbound, you're slow. ba

economy can accelerate despite this ism number.ot of that is based around the investment and spending in the oil patch. we turn to autos, and that's going gang busters, right? the consumer side of it is picking up. we think that that's going to accelerate a little bit in 2016. >> we will talk to you soon. i appreciate you coming out here. >> mark, again, with uvs. rick santelli, good to have you on this program. we'll have you back soon for certain, and i know liesman, we'll be hearing from you throughout the remainder of this day based on what the fed chair says in those remarks and, of course, the q & a which you'll see live in a matter of moments because, coming up, we're going to take you live to that room right there. the economic club of washington d.c. fed chair janet yellen, set to speak any moment now. then take some questions, and as we head to break, take a look at the s&p sectors right now. tech is in the green. nothing else is. back after this. surprise!!!!! we heard you got a job as a developer! its official, i work f

overnight, the dollar fell a touch after ism manufacturing data for november went below 50 for the first time in three years but analysts say many traders stay on the sidelines. u.s. federal reserve chair janet yellin is due to speak today. people in the market will speak for hinlts they get about a key rate hike. and cost be shared down for more than a third of a percent. >>> people in the northern island of hokido want a bigger slice and pinning hopes on a new and truists for the past in the fiscal year that ended in march, an increase from the year before. a portuguese traveler and. >> we have a good idea of the distance. >> about $140. he said he will put the money to sightseeing instead. but he has to take two trains to get from tokyo to his destination. that trip would take about six hours. travelers like him would be able to cut their travel time to just four hours next march. when the new train line opens. the shorter travel time is expected to be a boom for tourism. [ speaking foreign language ] >> translator: tourists are likely to stay longer and they're able to spend money an

. >> i'm still hung up on yesterday's ism number. why?ecause when you match it up, when you pair it up, when you look at it side-by-side with the run rate for the auto industry, that phil lebeau has been covering so great, it really leaves a lot of questions. we're going to deal with some of the answers after the break. >>> coming up, fed chair janet yellen set to give a policy speech in washington d.c. that could move the markets. we're going take you there live. plus, new reports that yahoo could be set for a major shake-up soon. analysts bob peck on what moves the company could be planning and when. it's more pain ahead for crude or is a comeback in the cards? we ask citi's head of commodities ed morris. john, we'll see you in about 15. >> all right. sounds good, scott. microsoft is holding its annual shareholder meeting today. this will be the second shareholder meeting as ceo. investors have reason to be happy with him this year. shares of microsoft are up about 20% so far in 2015. microsoft is looking to add two of the board. pat, f

ism at the end of the day they did the calculations.veryone seems to agree, most experts outside the government. an archaic ban on crude oil, that never worked to begin with. we talked to some experts saying i'm old enough to remember what happened in the '70s, it was a large part of effort to reassure that they could keep prices down and supplies strong. it never worked to begin with. >> there was a recognition. the white house was nominally against lifting the embargo, it was - it became one, one that was exercised, put on the table and the ban is lifted. >> let's talk about the bargaining chip that it began. a lot said the democrats got the extension forrenewable energy in return for lifting the ban. others said it went further than that. the democrats won on planned parenthood. the security of the e.p.a. and other areas. what are you hearing about the horse trading. >> as far as winners and losers are concerned. everyone got something out of this. paul ryan had the political fig leaf saying i'm playing the hand that was dealt me. i

what does it say about the economy, especially in light of print that ism showed a contraction to theowest level since june of 2009? betty? betty: thank you so much. abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. we have much more ahead, including the battle of the charts. you took out joe. we had to bring in some of the us. mark: i will ask this question. should the ecb be loosening policy? i'm coming to get you! ♪ betty: you are watching "bloomberg markets," at the european close. time for the global battle of the charts, a look at the most compelling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. julie hyman is joining us. mark barton scared off joe weisenthal, maybe. [laughter] winning three times in a row p julie, kick it off. julie: a lot this year about the outperformance of megacap stocks, masking the outperformance of merely large-cap stocks. i did not do this alone. it will snow bloomberg news gave me the idea for this chart, and also helped me set up the index for the chart. this looks at the russell top 50 index, the most mega mega-caps in the u.s. stock market, versus the s&p 500.

we have to keep skill set sharp on u ism michael jones is chief of the abington fire company he says this thing proper add to the department fire training facility. help these volunteers gain the training needed to take on any situation. >> it's awkward. its' fun. its fearful. everything that you need to keep you on your toes. >> reporter: they do drills that deal with air quality under ground object force them to problem solve and overcome any obstacle. >> reporter: abington fire company 7 thousand hours training for dangerous situations all way the purpose of making sure their firefighter can get in and out safely. >> if the victim is in fact awake and conscious and alert, there's a possibility that they could panic, they could scream, they may be crying in pain. so we have to be able to manipulate that. >> reporter: completing training means he'll get to walk in his grandfather's footsteps. >> into not only does it help to serve the community also kind of like. >> reporter: he'll be ready to save a life when needed in abington cherry greg. >> well today special attention to some v

i would call it al quaida-ism. we have been at war with al quaida, now, since 1998. we've had moments when we were close, i think, to achieving a significant strategic victory. we're not near that anymore. the problem of the failing of the arab spring and the the fusion of al quaida-ism and the islamic state with these civil wars and the break down of governance in the arab world have now made this a problem that's going to last, i think, for years to come. >> rose: what's going to happen to saudi arabia? >> saudi arabia's in trouble. oil prices at $35 a barrel are way below what the kingdom needs to sustain its welfare state. any economic moves to get away from being a welfare state are going to be very unpopular. saudis are going to ask, we're going to be taxed, for example, don't we have some role in making decisions about the country? secondly, the kingdom is in the midst of the transfer of power, a succession of power from one generation to at least the next generation and maybe even to the generation beyond that. saudi arabia's been ruled for the last 100 years