in the third issuance. this is a line graph of our spending over time projection. as you can see, once we have cash in hand, by the end of the summer, we are projecting a large increase in spending due to the construction of our final neighborhood parks projects. we plan to spend all bond funds by the end of 2020. say program schedule overview of the neighborhood parks program. the green bars on this schedule are when construction is going to commence. and we have quite a few projects ready to break ground this year, like rossi, garfield, george

in the third issuance. this is a line graph of our spending over time projection. as you can see, once we have cash in hand, by the end of the summer, we are projecting a large increase in spending due to the construction of our final neighborhood parks projects. we plan to spend all bond funds by the end of 2020. say program schedule overview of the neighborhood parks program. the green bars on this schedule are when construction is going to commence. and we have quite a few projects ready to break ground this year, like rossi, garfield, george christopher, margaret hayward, and willie woo woo wong. complete by 2019 and all the citywide programs los angeles completed by the end of 2020. with the passage of proposition b in 2016, city charter was revised. annual capital plan, and bond funding is a critical component to the successful completion of our goals. so, what these bond funds will do is make progress on a few of our deferred maintenance goals. we have a plan to complete the renovation of all our rec

you can see the proposed subsequent issuance schedules on the slide and the next two years. this just as a reminder was the overview of the recommendations from the transportation task force. the $500 million geo bond was the first of a number of local measures that recommended both that bond and a subsequent one in 2024, incorporated into the city's capital plan. a few other recommended revenue measures that are currently being rereviewed by the transportation 2045 task force, the report for which should be out i believe this month. this is a picture by expenditure category of the overall bond as well as the, what was approved in the first issuance, after a supplemental appropriation you approved last year, and that you can see what is in the second issuance in terms of what we are proposing and what the balance would be. so the first issuance thanks in part to the supplemental that you approved is largely expended. i'll show you a chart later that shows where we are more specifically, but fully expended in early calendar 2019, but we have a number of projects that are read

we are talking about soverign bond issuance.s in the gulf region going to have to plug budget deficits again this year, or in some of the pressure taking off a bit because of that rally in the oil price? john: i think people still issue some debt, definitely, because of the oil price, where it will be between $60 and $65, they will not be forced or compelled to go out and issue as much as they did in 2017. i think that it leaves a lot of room for the corporates to come in and issue more debt. given that expansionary side of the budget in the region will be there to support that. corporates will be more willing to issue debt, and that is a building story for 2018. tracy: from an economic perspective, does it matter how corporates are securing their financing? is there a difference between going to a bank and getting a loan or going to the public market and issuing debt? john: i think there is a huge difference. if you go to the public market and use your debt, that gives a lot of security and support. it basically recognizes the

tracy: i'm looking at a table bonds andfor gcc issuance for 2017.ion issued last year across corporate's and sovereigns. what is the total -- what does the total issuance outlook look like for 2018? reporter: most of the analysts we spoken to say that it will at least match that number. people are quite optimistic that it will be about 80 to 90 billion this year. this all depends on whether or not the sovereigns come in because they really are the massive issuers here. becky so much for joining us today -- thank you so much for joining us today. let's bring in the director of fconomic research at gul research center foundation. are sovereigns-- in the gulf region going to have to plug budget deficits again they havingr are that rally in the oil price? guest: definitely because of the oil price, where it will be between $60 and $65, they will not be forced or compelled to go out and issue as much as they did in 2017. i think that it leaves a lot of room for the corporates to come in an issue more debt. given that expansionary side of the budget in th

it sees saudi arabia taken the lions share of issuances.hese issuances going to affect the outlook for the broader fixed income space, especially since we already had a busy 2017? >> we had a massive amount of issuance coming from sovereigns last year. it looks like they will be doing that again this year, around $20 billion out of the saudis,, 8.5 maybe abuom oman, that will be aso busy pipeline this year. it looks like it will be a bumpy year for fixed income in the middle east. >> you look at gulf bonds, and they have outperformed equities, so there is demand for gcc paper. come to of who will market first year, because all not be asmarket might conducive as he your ago, so who will jump the gun here? oman will bean -- the first one out. then qatar is close to making a decision around issuance. we should see that coming soon. saudi arabia has a big budget deficit the needs to be filled as well. is a likelyhabi contender to be coming out as well. it will keep things busy. >> we talked about the sovereign space. there is demand in terms of

when they come to issuance?k they are going to have to pay more this year, because everybody is anticipating three increases from the fed. we will probably go on the same route. there is going to be more pressure. the servicing of that will keep on increasing going forward. i assume, the current bondholders, from previous bonds that will pay lower coupons, will take a hit unless they wait for maturity. yousef: where does that leave us with crude oil? we have got additional gains when it comes to u.s. rigs targeting crude oil. there is a gadfly article where bloomberg's julian lee writes, anybody expecting the opec, non-opec deal to fall apart says -- you are likely to be wrong. "they have their act together" is the point he makes. where do you see oil going in 2018, and what is the key upside or downside risk? has the rally gone too far? we are in territory. who would have made those calls four weeks ago, eight weeks ago? nabil: many were expecting oil to stablize in the range of $60's. again, the most important

does that mean there will be less issuance? kathleen: we are expecting less issuance.so appears that tax bill favors equity over debt. so, supply should be lighter than this year. julie: i had an interesting conversation yesterday with brian reynolds, who is a strategists over at canaccord. he talked not only about the national tax picture, but the local tax picture in the -- tax picture and the implications of rate rising local taxes for the corporate market. listen what he had to say. brian reynolds: state and local taxes went up by about $100 billion this year just for pension allocation votes. they need to get 7.5% annual returns on that money. so they put it into very aggressive credit funds. those funds by corporate bonds, those bonds put cash in the corporate balance sheet and ceos push up their stock prices through buybacks. julien: so, this is an interesting concept to me, julien that with these rising , taxes at the local level, the tax revenue is then going to underpin some demand for corporate bonds. is that a phenomenon you have seen and do you think that

we had record issuance from emerging markets last year and we had announcements this year already.or the 2018 year? >> thank you. , last year, 2017, was a stellar year for emerging markets and had record volumes of on issuance from this area, and it looks like -- a bond issuance from this area, and it looks like it will continue this year. we do not know if we will reach the same level but this week was busy with announcements. we had mexico pricing the first emerging market sovereign bonds, then argentina, and now we have a meeting of investors in london this week, and there will be more announcements on monday. mark: how big is the demand now for these types of bonds? is really big. it is continuing from the same was fivet year, mexico times subscribed, so we had investors bidding about $15 billion for that issue. when argentina came the following day, it was twice covered, and we had investors from 450 different investors, most from north america. we see demand is huge. vonnie: what are the risks for investors? we know venezuela is a huge risk. there are broader markets risks in

a massive amount of issuance coming out of sovereigns last year. looks like we will be seeing that again. talking about $20 billion out of the saudi, eight and a half billion dollars from oman, another $10 billion from qatar. if you think about the likes of abu dhabi coming out, maybe is going tot, that be a very busy type line -- timeline for this year. it looks like it will be another bumpy year for fixed income in the middle east. yousef: you talk about how bonds have perform. there is a lot of demand for middle east and gcc paper. in terms of who was going to come to market's first, because ultimately the fed is raising rates. environments not -- might not be as conducive. who is going to jump the gun? the roadshow has started. them on will be the first one out of the track. following that, we will probably -- we have already reported qatar is close to making decisions around issuance. we should see the qataris coming soon. saudi arabia, they also have a big budget deficit. the needs to be filled we should see the saudi's come quickly. as we sa

synchronouss, the growth, you are going to see more issuance. we see 3%, the momentum is higher guilt. jonathan: -- >> higher yield. are not ready to tear up and reverse all of the views we have had the past five years. the dynamics behind disinflation idea, there is a reason. all that we discussed regularly, they have not gone away. far as i'm concerned, they are doing the opposite of the bearish people. jonathan: pgim? robert: i disagree in terms of where the value is on the curve. that is tougher. the value on the market is somewhere below 2.75% on the 10-year. jonathan: will you be buying through the week? obert: the main thing in terms of positioning on the treasury curve -- if you look at the bonds, it hasn't hit to new yield highs this year. the performance back on the curve has been solid. you have growth, a strong stock market, therefore you have a fed that is likely to keep moving. arilyn, why is it that you see the value on the front end of the curve? marilyn: there is a want of uncertainty out there. we are not being paid for the dow

matthew: last year, i think corporate issuance probably disappointed a lot of people.nd $25 billion worth. sorry, $35 billion worth coming out of the corporates and banks. it was very much the sovereign story last year. this year, i think we will probably see the corporate will be more pressured now to come out. the banks are not lending the way they used to. rates are low. that gives a conducive environment for corporates to come out. we will see a lot more corporate paper issued this year. banks need to diversify their source of funding. they will want to capitalize on low rates while they can. it is the same story for the corporate sector. yousef: what is the biggest risk that the fixed income space faces in 2018? with the feedback you have been getting and investors. matthew: they need to get out before we see more fed interest rates start to come up. also, the other big thing to be watching in this region is the geopolitical -- yousef: exactly. the landscape has shifted. matthew: exactly. there is a lot of risk. we have the qatar situation going on. we have weak s

there is less impact on the front end of the issuance than the back end.he back end benefiting from the discussions on the regulation, that would make it -- de rugula tion. treasuries on swap yields. they have become easier for dealers to hold. jonathan: i want to get your thoughts on what has been happening with inflation linked security. you now see it spread between 810 and 30 year go to negative. what is that mean when the spread does that when 10-year and 30 year breaks even. ? the difference in inflation, whether the drivers are short-term and long-term. on a long-term basis there are a lot of downward pressures on prices that are likely to keep inflation under control for the foreseeable future. commodity prices have been strong and they are the biggest driver in the near-term of breakeven rates on tips. that is why you are seeing commodity prices going up, more of an adjustment on the short side. jonathan: what have you guys been doing? robert: tips have been attractive on the margin as a result of this headline inflation increase. big picture, the

the economics, the synchronous growth, you are going to see more issuance.hat is a big part of it. until we breach 3%, i'm not too worried about risk assets but i think the momentum is still higher yield. jonathan: take a listen to this. >> we are not ready to tear up and reverse all of the views we have had the past five years. the dynamics behind this inflation idea people have come -- there is a reason for inflation. the graphics, ai, all of the reasons we discussed regularly. they have not suddenly gone away because we started in the year. as far as i'm concerned, i do the opposite of the bearish people. jonathan: we might be in the by zone for pgim. are we? robert: i think we might be. i agree the momentum is negative here. i disagree in terms of where the value is on the curve. that is a tougher call. the market is somewhere around 3%, probably below 2.75% on the 10-year. the selloff will run out of steam. jonathan: will you be buying through the week? robert: for us, the main thing in terms of positioning on the treasury curve has really been the shap

>> we have seen a pick up in issuance. the steepening of the nominal curve that julia mentioned earlier on this year was in part driven by a pickup in long-end corporate bond issuance. to the extent that continues, that could offset some of the downward pressure in the flattening of the curve. >> briefly, because it seems we are headed towards that potential government shut-down, how disruptive will it be if that actually does happen this friday? >> well, historically government shut-downs have not had much lasting economic impact. oftentimes, government workers who have been furloughed actually get back pay, so you don't have that consumer spending drop as a result. it does present uncertainty in the markets. the markets don't like uncertainty. risk premiums are quite low here. volatility had been low. we could see a pick up in those measures on a government shut-down, fick through if it is likely to last more than a week or so. >> talk about what we are looking for in two years. will you be gleaning any tidbits from the

as you go further out, issuance matters more. will in click -- increase 30 year tomorrow. we will start to feel that. we will have a direct affect. shery: will this be a steepener? michael: right. even though there is more supplant the front, the impact is larger on the maturities. vonnie: where will we see demand? michael: again, i think we will have to cheapen up more to get those out the door. strong pension demand in the last few months. that has helped this curve flattening to we think that will add in the next few months -- ebb in the next few months. the company that turns a profit in 2000 17 has to pay 35% tax. your profit in 2018, 20 1% tax. one way you can ship -- shift aocess -- profits, is make pension contribution in 2017 that is larger than normal. then make a smaller than normal in 2018. you will not make overall contributions in 2017. but that is what has helped the curve flattened. fed has had this intense flattening to we think that will fade. at the same time, you get an editing of the pension demand. shery: wi

assuming geopolitics stay stable, the consensus is that there will be a lot more issuances in 2018, but be more on the -- side. it was conventional in 2017. get such a big slice of the cake. >> i think what happened in 2017 is we as a fantastic performance of the market, increasing 45%, that was explained by the issuance of some countries like saudi arabia. think that are based scenario, the volume will be dropping a 70-80,000,000,000 dollars and that will be explained by the liquidity condition in the global markets. and we expect the fed to raise riches -- raise interest rates by five basis point in 2018, and it will work toward liquidity globally. that will result in high prices, and maybe a lower appetite for the investors. the second risk is the geopolitical risk, it is probably going to weigh on the investor sentiment, and the third risk, the third to turn to growth, is the limit of progress on opposition and i think the customization -- we have seen only a limited progress towards. yousef: in terms of where we are at with issuances, i have tried to put on the bloomberg, it is a p

the issuance of that exemption does not mean that no environmental review occurred. as you know, the document is significant. and significant review occurs before that document can be issued or approved. appellants, again, have provided no substantial evidence to show any environmental impacts or to show that the exemption was improper or to show that there's been any procedural violations. to the contrary, more than substantial evidence supports the planning department's approval of exemption and this board's upholding of that approval. for all of these reasons, we urge the board to deny this appeal. we're available for any questions you may have. thank you. >> president breed: thank you very much. all right. we'll open it up to public comment for members of the public that would like to speak in opposition to the appeal. if you would like to speak in opposition to the appeal, please come forward. >> hello, mayor breed, and board of supervisors. i'm ward epstein. i've known chris durkin for 10 years. he has a young family, two kids. he would like to be the neighborh

doing business as the dark horse inn has completed the preapplication meeting requirement for the issuance of a new nonsale general liquor license. >> president breed: colleagues, can we take this same item same call. >> and the final item before we go to our 3:00 p.m. special order. >> item 60 was considered by the rules committee at a regular meeting on thursday, december 1 1g9. it's an -- 11th. -- due to administrative orders to vacate issues by the department of building inspection or the fire department to receive financial assistance from the fund for up to two years. >> president breed: supervisor safai? >> supervisor safai: thank you, colleagues. about -- let's say about eight, nine months ago, i think you might remember that there was the horrible situation at five persia where we discovered 27 individuals living in dungeon-like conditions. one way in, no way out. this was a former garage that the owner had subdivided into cubicles. they were living underground through no fault of their own because of the hazardous situations, the fire marshal and the department of building inspec

if you run out of money because of unexpected seismic work, you would go to a second issuance in order to get the additional funds. is that understanding correct? or another way to ask it, these allocations,first of all whoever allocated them, do they have the authority to allow reallocation if we run out of money in one of the projects. >> good question. the simple answer is the allocation that are legally -- maybe somebody else can speak better to this than i can, it has to do with the bond ordinance that was passed. for example the adf and fire station, the ordinance speaks to 58 million allocated to the fire department. within that as long as there's agreement with the client department, that can be reallocated. likewise for the other components, i believe -- i don't have it in front of me right now, but the bond ordinance may speak to specific amounts allocated for each. zuckerberg i know had 222 set aside for that and so forth. >> ken, can you comment on that? if that's the case, then these allegations were built in to the actual bonds. >> so if i understand it, the question is w

what about the issuance?expectation of corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending. there is a fiscal need for greater issuance. will that rock the market? neeraj: that's not necessarily going to rock the market. but that obviously is going to cause a drift higher in the treasury. issuance gos higher, the net issue with will be significantly higher than 2017 and hence the drift higher is a natural thing for treasuries with inflation and some extent possible shift in policy. jgb in is if we look at the 10 year remains in zero plus-minus 10 to 20 basis points , net of hedging costs it is still a positive investment for japanese investors. demand will remain but that threshold will go higher from here. haidi: are we being a little too relaxed when it comes to inflation? particularly when you have a u.s. administration that is adding fiscal stimulus at a time when you have super tight labor markets. by most aspects the economy seems to be roaring back to life. neeraj: right. i think that's a very important poi

yousef: we have seen the story of oman strong in 2018 with the issuance.u expect other sovereigns to follow with that kind of enthusiasm? is this a good time to issue with oil where it is an other variables -- and other variables? >> i do think it is a good time. for has significant funding 2018. they came out and had the demand and took $6.5 billion out of the market. that has performed very well in the secondary market. they havehave done is funded themselves for 2018. investors know the will be limited issuance from oman in 2018. we have other sovereigns lining up. saudi mentioning $20 billion here it abu dhabi funding in the first quarter. out an rsvp. so everyone is trying to get in on higher oil prices. there is a lot of demand out there. yousef: what do you make of this weaker dollar story? pretty much everybody struggling to get their head around it. well.are as you would think you would see a stronger dollar with higher interest rates. there is speculation that there is a change in central bank activity away from the dollar as one of the reserve c

courtesy of the fiscal -- tax cut, we should see a large increase in treasury issuance coming at a timee fed is going to be pulling back. coming at a time were corporations are potentially going to be my -- bringing money back home. you could be seeing a perfect storm. bunch ofard there is a rich people getting a tax cut and they need to invest their money somewhere. [laughter] joe: the vix showing a eventual drawdown -- but when you look at nasdaq, what is going on here? >> it was remarkable yesterday. vrx, or vxm, the nasdaq equivalent of vix closed higher than at any point last year. is the nasdaq 100, and they lost half a percent -- that is the canary in the coal mine. as i explained in the s&p, trying to back out what the market is pricing, a potential drawdown based on implied volatility. it is a 6% drawdown, which is substantially more than we have seen. it suggest that somebody is worried about locking. witha: great to chat you. meeting --n's final what we should be expecting. this is bloomberg. ♪ vladimir putin says the u.s. treasury's to release the list of russian oligarchs w

investors know there will be limited issuance from oman in 2018. other sovereigns lining up. saudi mentioning $20 billion here it abu dhabi funding in the first quarter. qatar sending out an rsvp. so everyone is trying to get in on higher oil prices. there is a lot of demand out there. yousef: what do you make of this weaker dollar story? pretty much everybody struggling to get their head around it. >> we are as well. you would think you would see a stronger dollar with higher interest rates. there is speculation that there is a change in central bank activity away from the dollar as one of the reserve currencies, but we think that is at the margin. the dollar weakness may be symbolic of maybe donald trump's presidency and some of the erratic decision-making there, but ultimately investors are looking for yield. so as we see yields moving up, you will definitely see investors rotating into buying treasuries has an investment. yousef: at what point does the weaker dollar become a problem for the gulf? >> i think it is not a big issue. i think they w

timeout's recent sovereign dollar that issuance -- that insurance -- debt issuance has done poorly despitelming demand. details on what happened with bloomberg's guest. >> underperform against asian peers, i guess. tooi: the pricing was tight. as we discussed on the show two months ago, when they price it, they priced it at treasuries plus 15 basis points. exactly. that is much lower than what the market participants expected. this is lower than korean tworeign bonds, rated levels up higher than china lost sovereign. the very limited spread on china sovereign bonds provided very little cushion. this is the underlying u.s. treasury move. reason, thend record issuance from chinese companies also is leading to the underperformance of china-related bombs. if we could bring up a chart to sovereign nations dollar bond performance, china was the worst performer. rishaad: you got it there. >> actually, the other chart. [laughter] china handed investors a 0.70% loss. it is the biggest loser among all asian sovereign bonds. the biggest winner is actually mongolia bonds. rishaad: there we go. haidi:

both markets could have new 2029 issuance over the next months.hing has been announced but there is speculation in the market that could come. clearly how well both of those bond issuance is go and demand from potential banks like china and others in asia will determine that spread to a great deal as well. if anything, i think most of the investor basis have to look at both of them as being decent bonds to hold against obviously treasuries. david: laura, the less time we spoke in november i asked you to stick your neck out to us and give us a call. i will not hold you being wrong against you because you're not in equities person. be a good sport. asx 200. where does this go? some: well, we are seeing kinds of profit taking but i think clearly miss plenty of money still to be put to work in the equity markets. if anything i think 62. 50 is likely. right now i think most people are still struggling where to put their money. while that theme continues, i guess there is a continuing grinding rally from here. haslinda: we're going to hold you do that.

not despite the issuances it seems the debate around possible human cloning is once again on the agenda. scientists watching. in the philippines say. could happen at any moment they say the volcano is swelling with magma under the surface and it may not be able to withstand the pressure of all that. about seventy five thousand people have been evacuated from the. eruption could become a humanitarian emergency lasting months. as the most active volcano in the philippines the current eruption started about two weeks ago. will be with you at the top of the next hour with another full of course you can find more news and information website. thanks for being with us. for the global insights the news out. of w made for mine.

to put in context, we assume 5% for debt issuances so to come in below that is a good thing. also, i wanted to point out the bond rating agencies affirmed the water bond ratings, moody's affirmed it at aaa3 and standard at poors at aa minus. it's scheduled to close tomorrow, december 13. happy to answer questions on that transaction before we jump into the item at hand. >> i'd like to move the item. >> second. >> discussion? any public comment? all in favor. >> aye. >> thank you. >> approved, thank you. next item, please. >> the clerk: item 15 thorse a memorandum of understanding with the office of the treasurer and tax collector bureau of delinquent revenue to provide special collection services for delinquent water, sewer and power charges. >> i have a question on that. i would like a better understanding how that will impact low-income residents who may not be able to afford to pay and what that entails. >> this is an arrangement with the tax collector. currently he is working with an assessment of fees and how it affects low-income customers. >> since this is a continuati

. >> clerk: item 12, appropriatity $77 million in proceeds from the third issuance of the 2012 clean and safe parks open spaces 2018a to the recreation and park department for renovation, repair and construction of parks and open spaces placing on controller's reserve pending the receipt of indebt theness 2017/2018. >> president breed: same house, same call? without objection, passes unanimously on the first reading. >> clerk: item 13, ordinance to appropriate $300,000 for cigarette litter abatement fees. >> president breed: same house, same call. without objection, ordinance passes unanimously on the first reading. >> clerk: item 14, an ordinance to amend the health code, to impose a license fee of $1,200 for cannabis smoking consumption permit. >> president breed: same house, same call. without objection, ordinance passes unanimously on the first reading. >> clerk: item 15 resolution to provide recreation and parks department to accept and expend a grant from san francisco parks alliance for renovation of certain playgrounds for let'splaysf for $15 million january 2018-january 2026