i think the iwm, you still take your cues from the iwm. as long as it stays above 122 which is effectively what we've done for the last couple of weeks, i think it will drag the broader markets with it. we talked about it yesterday on your 2:00 show that the oil rallies and equities, there's some real ones and there's some false once. we specifically mentioned exxon mobil and connick could he phillips being the false ones. look at those today. look at tesaro. down today but trading a whisper of all time highs. >> that's an interesting one because we do continue to see the spread remaining wide. you think oil is going to rebound? >> i think oil is going higher. i don't think it's going back to 110. >> does that mean that refiners are not a good trade? >> the thing with refiners, it's all about that spread between wti and brent. i do think brent is probably the stronger of the two so that spread actually might be a little bit wider. i personally make the bet on oil going higher because you're going to start to see some of those supply change

>> mostly with iwm or russell options that are short dated. i like the russell because it's relative volatility levels are favorable for hedging right now. it has a lot of interest rate risk imbedded in it. if you think rates are likely to rise higher here in the united states and near term i like the russell but near dated options. i'm overall bullish here. my price target for the end of the year on the s&p 500 is 2350. i just don't think we'll get there any time in the near future but i'm looking closely as to how the fed on march 18th will address this ever strengtdenningstrengtd strengthening dollar in their negative. >> michael. thank you. we'll have another chat in a few minutes time. now jeff gunlock says now is not the time to short the dollar. the investor said in a web cast they're showing few signs they're ready for it. a strong dollar may not be a good thing for risk assets. he also says the u.s. economy is in better shape than most euro zone economies. >> yeah, interesting comments coming in there from the widely respected bond in

i still say as long as the iwm stays above i'm with pete on health care. i understand where there is froth but the evaluations in these names is still reasonable. health care one, some bank names, goldman sachs, that stock goes higher. >> the dollar is down 1% today and s&p was up 1.5%. when you think about that relationship seems odd to me. seems like a lame excuse. to your call on crude might bottom, a lot of head fix there. people get excited about equities right now because of the weak dollar well we've seen sort of head figures in oil since it's been plunging in the last six months. i wouldn't take one day and say go all in. i would say one thing. i agree with pete. i know pete loves when i agree with him. on the biotech stuff when you think about it it's clearly frothy whether valuation. you see companies skipping over each other. we're seeingry ridiculous valuations. can it keep going? of course. one of the things that keeps working. >> why would you say that for amgen or others. they presented real data over the weekend about cholesterol lowering d

i think the russell, the iwm stays above 121. to dan, i think it's intact, as long as the russell stays above 121. even more so if the transports can recapture 168. and 158 now. >> except for the fact, brian, you have earnings right in front of us here. they won't be great. >> well, they won't be great. everybody knows that. i would mention today, you said earnings they were hurt by the strong dollar. today we had a strong dollar, yet the u.s. stock market rallied. there were incongruities out. there when you lock at other markets besides the u.s. stock market you had oil down most of the day which has been a negative signal in the past. >> and it was of the leaderships. >> i don't know if you can trust it today. we have to wait until wednesday an i do think the friday payroll's number, not being on a -- when the markets opened is going to create a tremendous amount of volatility. >> i wonder if people in the day and subsequent days are getting ahead of a nontrading day on friday. one of the rare days you'll get the jobs report w

here we are in the low mid-150s, and the russell in my opinion, the iwm, needs to hold 121. we're close now. if you see the russell through 121 and continued weakness in the transports, the levels that steve talked about on the downside in the s&p are almost a foregone conclusion. >> are you sure of this market -- >> yeah, and i put a new short of the xlp, the consumer stable etf. it reminds me a lot of intel and microsoft, how investors crowded in them last year for their balance sheet, for their buybacks, for their dividend yields, and they got kind of expensive. at a market multiple, intel last year, at its highest, was expensive, to itself, okay? so the consumer staples actually remind me of that. and we've already seen procter & gamble down 10% on the year, we've seen some of the other names that are in that xlp also act very weak. so to me, i actually think you want to avoid these crowded, defensive -- or perceived defensive names, because i think they have the potential to go much lower. i think there's defensive money hiding in them. >> do these names look overvalid?

the dia, tracking the dow, the qs track the nasdaq, spy tracks the 500 and the iwm following the russellp today to tel

the dia, tracking the dow, the qs track the nasdaq spy tracks the 500 and the iwm following the russell. >> and a big step today to tell you about in the fight against alzheimer's disease. call your attention to one stock. those would be the shares of biojin right now up 7%. up 30% in the past three months at all-time highs now after releasing very encouraging data on an experimental alzheimer's drug. telling us about it at this time yesterday and she's now back with more detail. hi, meg. >> hi tyler. incredibly high expectations for this drug leading into today and analysts say biogin met and exceeded them. shocking investors saying the medicine appeared to slow the cognitive declines associated with alzheimer's and today how well the drug appeared to work both on memory loss and clearing of the am lloydoidloyd plaqued that build up in the brain. next step, find balance between safety and efficacy. results of early. doctors are encouraged and important to note the drug was tested in patients at very early stages of alzheimer's disease who might benefit if it reach ares the market. next

the iwm that tracks the russell 2,000 and that is down. >> there is the ten-year note, the yield at 2.02. gold up at 11.53 an ounce. the euro is down i guess -- the euro is up against the dollar at 1.06 and west texas crude is down another 2%. look at that $42 quote on west texas crude. let's get right to our senior economics reporter steve liesman on a roof somewhere in washington. >> on the fed's roof. and i want to spend a minute because certainly someone just tuned in and said why are people spending all this time on the wort "patient" and why does it matter? and the reason why it matters so much is it gives the fed flexibility to hike interest rates. that word meant they would not hike interest rates for two meetings. it comes out as expected and gives them flexibility and begins a debate that has to do with valuing stocks and bonds over how quickly the hike rates and when does it begin and ends a period of pre-commitment that used to have the form of considerable time extended period. they had a date in there through 2013. so now it's going to be all about data dependence. removing

in whether that's in emerging markets or in s&p or s&p relative to europe or a domestic market like iwm. it's really not the recent term they're focused on. it's really the long-term tail events people are concerned about. >> anthony chan how focused are you on the u.s. dollar and would you say there's a strong correlation now between the dollar moving lower and stocks moving higher? >> well i think, kelly, what you see in the stock market is that when energy prices come down, that's always a red flag. but all of a sudden when you see the dollar going up too much that's also a red flag but today you had energy going down which is not necessarily good news for some people in the market, but you have the dollar also giving up a little bit back. so net/net what you have is the market more or less trading on a relief trade here that we have this fed meeting and perhaps the federal reserve won't disappoint. yes, they might take the word patient out, but they probably will tell you that the data is sufficiently cloudy that they may have to wait a little bit longer. >> jeff, what's the volatil

as long as the russell, the iwm stays above 121, and i said this to kelly now for month. >> yeah. >>der market is intact. it doesn't mean that i believe it or that the fundamentals there support it. it just is what it it is. >> how relevant is oil in terms of this market it? was the biggest correlation earlier this quarter, and now it seems to be break do you think a little bit. >> listen oil seems to have put in a bottom so to speak, at least for now. i would say our conversations with clients suggest a number of oil centric trader and pms think there is an additional downside. but the action has been solid. stocks seem to have decoupled. i would make a general point look at oil collapse and looking at the dollar rallying and looking at earnings and the like. the stock market whether you use the russell and s&p 500 is at an all-time high. despite the fact that the dollar has rallied. oil has collapsed. >> was what does that tell you? >> it speaks about the strength of the stock market. i would echo some of guy's comments that i'm not really sure that the underlying fundamentals are