(laughing) >> smith: for the past four decades, jack bogle has been preaching the gospel of long-termow-cost investing through index funds. >> get wall street out of the equation. get trading out of the equation. get management fees out of the equation. you own american business and you hold it forever: that's what indexing is. own a fund that owns the entire u.s. stock market, does no trading, and has a cost of one percent a year to own. and that is the only way to do it. then you are the creature of the market and not of the casino. >> smith: index funds buy and hold a broadly diversified basket of stocks that match the holdings of a market index: the s&p 500, the wilshire 5000, or maybe a bond or commodity index. they don't eliminate market risk, they ride the market up and down, but they are much cheaper because there is no active manager. >> you can guarantee to the shareholder that they will capture their fair share of the stock market's return, for better or for worse. if you want to gamble with your retirement money, all i can say is be my guest. but be aware of the mathematic

. >>> next, the vanguard group, jack bogle is coming up. investor will join "halftime" and give his outlook for the second quarter and make what i think is a surprising prediction for stocks over the next decade as well. that's coming up next. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. with the innovating and the transforming and the revolutionizing. it's enough to make you forget thon a chair that just five hundrbecame a bed.our you see, we're doing some changing of our own. ah, we can talk about it later. we're putting the wonder back into air travel, one innovation at a time. the new american is arriving. ♪ [ male announcer ] help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launch of the country's largest petrochemical operation. ♪ when emerson takes up the challen

when we come back, vanguard founder jack bogle will be here. "squawk on the street." let's get the road map for the next hour, and into what is setting up to be a disappointing earnings season. legendary jack bogle will weigh? on how to navigate the markets here. that will bring us back to the fed. stimulus started to gather steam. is that now off the table? plus ceo compensation. think you know who tops the list? think again, but we'll begin with the markets which are lower this morning ahead of the official start of the first earnings season of the year which begins after the bell. on the cnbc newsline, jack bogle, the ceo and founder of the vanguard group. good morning. >> good morning. good to be with you all. >> how do you feel about where we are, jack? it's been a pretty good year, entering a part of the year that is historically treacherous, at least you go back the last couple of years. do you think we're in fair value territory? >> i think we are absolutely in fair value territory, and i don't really go much further than that. i put th