jack rasmus jack, welcome to the program. now the us secretary of the treasury describe the state of the american economy as in the transition rather than a recession. do you make that statement? i. * i would disagree with her, i don't put any more trust in this forecast of hers than i did in her forecast several months ago that inflation was going down. i think she's wrong. if you look at the u. s. economy 1st quarter, the sheer it contract, it already minus 1.6 percent. the federal reserve at atlanta is forecasting another contraction, 2nd quarter. we'll see you next week. in addition to that last week, a whole series of indicators were reported out. that kind of warned people, and maybe that's why she's responding because the talk now is a recession is closer than, than we thought. there are forecasts that business activity is dropping out very quickly in the us. we have a purchasing managers indexes, both contracting both for manufacturing and for services. we've got the fed the next week, going to raise the interest rates, another 75 basis points, right into the teeth of this big slow down. maybe we haven't crossed the contraction yet in her mind, but boy, we are moving very quickly in that direction and i've been forecasting a recession before the end of this year, or for 6 months now. and i'm not alone. there are other other economists who are beginning to see the same re, investment is slowing dramatically. consumption is rising, but only equal to inflation. so it's all price. inflation is not real consumption growing. there's a whole host of things that are indicators that we are moving very quickly into recessionary stage. here she seems to think another communists seem to think that, oh, because we don't have a significant lay offs going on right now that that means we're not in a recession. well, employment is always a lagging indicator of 6 months, at least to what's going on. the rest of the economy and already we're seeing a claims for unemployment benefits rising the last 4 or 5 weeks. so i think the lagging indicator will change your mind. and i think it will be very clear by the time we get to september, that the u. s. economy is already in a recession. well, of course, like you, not everyone shares the positive outlook of the treasury secretary. if this a session does take place towards the end of the year, how worried do you think the american public should be? how serious will it be? well, i think they're quite worried now if you look at the polls, 60 percent or more in the major pose of americans and say that the number one concern is the economy. ok? it's inflation, right? but we're going to have unemployment overlaid on that by the, by the end of this year. so it's going to be, you know, both inflation and unemployment look to fit has decided and the politicians have decided they're going to shake out this inflation by destroying demand, by having the federal reserve accelerate interest rate hikes, which it is doing now. so by the end of the year, they will shake out some of the inflation, but not all, i think we're going to have a recession with about 4 to 5 percent inflation in addition to it. this is kind of new ground that we're entering. we haven't seen since the late 19 seventy's, early, early eighty's. so i, i think the politicians are saying, and she is saying what she needs to say, because now you have markets and investors last week, really, you know, upping the discussion about o recession closer than we thought. and the feds raising rates again or quite an unprecedented situation if you not seen it since the 70s or eighties. now you did mention that interest rate hikes, one of the tools that can be used to try and reduce inflation. but some also say the russia take i recession high, a joblessness to ease price, precious and sauce extent. do you agree with that statement? well yes, if you raise interest ration you slow down the industry, which is already happening, as i said, especially when you get to manufacturing and construction. when you slow it down. that means you, you have layoffs if you have, why are people have a less disposable income to spend? there's less consumption business or pulls further back on this investment. and yeah, that's how one way you can get an end to inflation. like i said, though, i don't think they're going to shake it all out. that's exactly the way it happened in 1981, 82. this is very similar to that where the federal reserve raised interest rates, the double digit levels, and caused a deep recession. $198182.00, but this time is not going to going to get to double digit interest rate levels. i've predicted that for some time the global economy, u. s. economy is much more fragile and it won't take, i've been predicting for a year more than 4 to 5 percent interest rates on the benchmark. and you're going to be in recession and we're getting darn close to it. right down on professor economic st. mary's colleagues college jack rasmus, always a pleasure to have you on your program. thank you very much for insights today. my pleasure. i saw the world's look in at 730. am this monday morning us all from me? peter scott, for now, but do stay tuned for well to pots with asana. boy coming up next. ah ah ah, ah. ah. what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms. race is often very dramatic. that development only personally, i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical. i'm time to sit down and talk with walter to was joking. we dismissed or shameful, was the point that i'm the last a very complex and a very complex phenomenon revealing something here in both about its consumers and societies. at large. like any collective preoccupation is gratified and punishes goals and exhaust, exposes and misrepresents. with points i still joined the chunk of internet traffic . what makes point such a symbol of the di guys discussed

jack rasmus, professor of economics and politics at st. mary's college of california. welcome to the program jack. first of all, i didn't seem to have the points with this critic with this. now it always seems that oil prices spike, but prices at the point tend to fall like a feather. well, you know, it's interesting that now he's asking the gas stations to reduce their price when just a couple weeks ago that he was saying, all of us publicly in that we're just going to have to eat all these higher gasoline prices for the the sake of freedom and ukraine, but now course now you see important fingers at the gas stations. yeah, the problem is that the refinery level there is a refiners aren't a problem producing any, any more refined gasoline. that's the problem factor, even shutting down some refineries. that so how you expect the, you know, the gas stations, the last step in the chain here to reduce their prices. if they're not getting more refined oil, it's really just a distraction. you see, it is not even hip hypocrisy. bailey said, it's just an act of desperation. he's got to come up when say something. and so he's now he's pointing fingers at the, the gas station owners, one the proms at the refinery level. and before that, even at the production level, where you know, the drillers won't, won't increase the of the output the supply of crude oil in, in the us either we, we had what one new drilling a platform added to it last week. and you know, this is the problem along the supply chain. oil companies don't want the price to really come down and making super super profits all on the chain from the drilling to the refinery, to the gas station. and he's really not doing anything. you know what he could do is what nixon did, and that is freeze prices at the palm for 90 days. ah, rollback the price where it was $60.00 days ago impose a through executive order come up with the excess profits, windfall profits on energy tax, and redistribute that due to the commuters in the population, which is really what the california gum no nuisance trying to do. so he can do it, but he's not even going to do on the republican president did 50 years ago. it allows you say that there are reports that oil companies were profits in our profits in from this unfolding crisis. and it's the same in the u. k. with even a winful tax been proposed on the oil companies. to what extent do you think this applies to the re sellers as well as with is in their interests to even reduce costs at the pump? well, you know, who's gonna force them to do it? you know, you have to take some executive action and some legislation, you get the legislation, but you can take executive action executive orders, which is what nixon did to freeze prices. rollinback. yeah. he's got the power to do that. i but he's not going to do that. i mean, he is just looking for a p r p are answers, public relations, answers to, to this crisis. and he's waiting on the u. s. economy to dramatically slow down because a higher interest rates in the hopes that will cause unemployment and reduced demand and an answer to what is a supply problem. and that will solve it in the mean time. he's just trying to look like he's doing something. but he's waiting on under recession to really do it. i was, he must have his eyes on the mid terms as well, later this year with this culture g prices. well, you know, i don't think it's gonna do any good. i think his party is gonna get slaughtered in the midterms because this inflation problem and the economy problem is the number one problem here in the u. s. and why the democrats are going to lose a lot of seats and it gets almost a done deal. now it's not going to change very much, it is because of his policies, really. i guess it's out of the question that said by didn't would lift any of the, the sanctions on russian oil as you have been in negotiations with venezuela and even iran. well, you know, he got to deal with venezuela to have them send more oil to, to europe. that was, was the decision there. but, you know, europe has her is even in a worse situation with the gas prices and gas supplies. we include an oil being cut, you know, it's going to be even worse, inflation, stagflation and recession in europe than it is in united states. the big problem is he's been trying desperately around the world to get other countries to produce more oil. and he is not having much effect at the same time, you can't get the u. s. a produces due to drill moral, and you can get the refiners to refine moral. so what to do is try to take it out under station owners or professor of economics and politics. jack ross, miss, thanks very much, field sates a day on the situation to pumps over in us. my pleasure was gas prices continue to rise across europe at gym and chance that olaf sholtes has expressed concern about the increase in heating bills. labeling the issue, social explosives. if suddenly, the heating bill goes up by a couple of 100 euro's then, this is an amount that many people really cannot cope with. this is a social explosive. well, as gas prices rise in europe, the u. s. continues to push europeans to cut their energy usage. this comes against the backdrop of a price crunch that has increased oil and coal production contradicts in europe's green agenda. see, shoddy pinsky has more. second time it changes a perennial issue for the g 7 before the war in ukraine. it was meant to be the main focus of this year's summit in bavaria. however, not only was it knocked from top spot, it was positively trampled on. now here is a conundrum. you have a scoop of journalists that you need to g