jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. >> actually crude seeing its lowest levelsome of the issues, greece of course, but also the inventory data that we got this morning, a pretty big build. scott nations, what is today's move in crude tell us about the trade and also energy stocks? is this the start of a leg lower from here? >> i think it is. the fundamentals are just horrible. you mentioned stockpiles increasing for the first time in nine weeks, we found out that opec production is the highest it's been since october of, august of 2012. fundamentals are horrible. >> any support in the charts, jeff killberg? a close under 58 to me and according to the traders i'm talking to, not good for crude. >> well you're right, jackie. june 1st, the low was 58.04, we have been accustomed to the price flurkt wags inside this range from 58-61. so it looks like i wants to test 55. >> that should be a good thing for drivers this holiday weekend. >>. >> jackie, second-half playbook on energy? >> it's interesting, a lot of the points the men just mention reasonable doubt coming in

jackie de angelis is at the nymex with more on that. >> what's interesting is we saw a steep reaction earlier this morning. but prices are stabilizing, we're actually up 16 cents on wti 52.37 is where we stand now. now remember, this has been pretty much priced in. we've shed $10 over the last month or so in terms of oil prices. and whether you think this is a good deal or a bad deal that the u.s. has cut here. it will have an impact on oil prices as we go forward. let me walk you through this. the first issue is the timeline here. about 12 to 18 months before this oil will come online in a meaningful way. there is a 60-day approval process. president obama has veto power. if this does not go through. how it will impact the actual oil markets is like this -- we've got about anywhere from 20-40 million barrels of offshore oil this is floating storage oil that iran has right now. it's ready to go. analysts think it could probably get about 400,000 barrels to market per day. as soon as the end of the year. but then there's also the production question. how quickly will iran ramp? now off

jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. >> well i said we do go under 50. a brief moment there, lowest since april. i want to show you some movers you might not be thinking about. throw up some regional banks. these are banks that we're showing that lend into the energy sector. >> this is an exciting story. back when crude was hate and left for dead in the 40s a few months back. these banks were getting in trouble they were making leverage energy loans. comerica had the numbers this morning. leading the way down here. now obviously a lot of folks, including some guys sitting here right now. i'm not mentioning names have been bullish on the regional banks. i've been bearish and somewhat rong. >> wrong. >> josh likes the regional banks, i think part of that is the rate call where if you think nims are going to get better. >> no. >> please? >> lend something gradually thawing, household formation is growing, incomes are growing, construction spending is all over the country. the regional banks will continue to work. >> he's not saying every regional bank. >> i

jackie de angelis. just a stone's throw from here. >> good afternoon to you, scott.atching bonds, they're breaking a five-day win streak as some fears are easing over situations in greece. and in china. so scott nation's, part of the pun here. is it safe to say, the safety trade soefr? >> i don't think so. you're absolutely right. treasuries down for the first time in five days. classic risk gone. we've seen how that's worked for the chinese investor recently. not very well. if do you think that the safety trade soefr, then that means that you believe that both china and greece are solved and that seems very unlikely. >> it may be a small group of people who is not worrying about it, jim ureo, is it possible to see the yield at 3% again? it's possible, but i don't think in the short-term. i don't think the situation in china is over. it surprises me that we're taking it it as a big risk on signal. >> i think we go to 2.10 in the 10s, for more on the 10-year, tune into the online show at the top of the hour. we're talking to david rosenberg, he'll tell us why why he l

. >> wonder what the traders in the pits think, we go to jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futuresow crew. >> those were some bold calls made at delivering alpha yesterday. jim urio we know on the fundamentals oil can go lower. but the market doesn't necessarily seem to be reacting. do you think $30 is in the cards. i think it's a bold call $30 seems to me ambitious. knits a consolidative pattern that to me looks scarey. if oil trades $50 to be sure. it will broken out of the pattern and i do think $7, $8 lower seems reasonable. $30 seems a little unreasonable to me. >> scott nation's part of bo taylor's argument was that we're sitting on a lot of supply here. does that situation concern you? and do you think it can take us lower? it will take us lower. it should concern every oil bull in the world. why? we learned last week that in opec, supply is about a million barrels a day more than demand and in the u.s. supplies are about 100 million barrels above the five-year average and iran has 50 million barrels floating offstore in storage. iranian oil won't come on the market until ne

jackie de angelis with more. >> gold is down for the 10th straight day. if it closes lower today it's going to be the worst losing streak that we've seen since 1996. jeff killberg, that's very significant. there was some gold bugs saying we could get a pop because we moved so far so fast. but it looks like the selling pressure is on. what's going on here? >> yeah, jackie. the last time we saw a slide like this i think gris was pegging his jeans in 1996. you see mohammed moment up. an emotional trade. gold futures, sentiment changes so quickly. there's no rhyme or reason why they're selling so hard. i think it will turn around. the vix down to 12, gold getting thrown away. it's time for a relief rally. >> what are the levels you're watching? >> i get by the big italian horn if the price of gold drops any further. so i could fill my gold inventory for my own personal consumption. but 10.45 to 10.40 is the next level of support. we haven't seen the number since 2010. in and physical demand for gold in china is down 9%. worldwide, demand for gold coins, gold

jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. >> that's right.ing gasoline rally today after the department of energy said we saw a draw-down in stockpiles, we were expecting to see an inventory build. we didn't get it. so scott nations, looking at the situation, what's happening in the energy complex today. you say the only thing that matters is gasoline in relation to crude. explain it to for me. >> that's right. because while gasoline features are up over 1% today. crude oil is up more than double so if you're thinking today that gasoline is a big bargain, you've missed the giant move and the giant move is that year to date crude oil is down about 9%, while gasoline futures are up 25%. that's not great news for driver, the only people it's really good for are refiners. >> it could be good for others as well. and jeff killberg, i want to talk to you about that. we've seen a 35% drop in gasoline futures since this time last year. now does it help the earnings picture? >> unequivocally it's hurt earnings. we've seen the s&p 500 estimates for earn

jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. >> a very interesting reversal in prices, seeing a spike especially in wti. anthony gra zaisani, you're seea rebound? >> just a little. think it has to do with the dollar and the anticipation of a draw, when the supply numbers are released. later on today. but i think with the iranian oil coming back on the market there's only one way to play this and that's to sell it. 54, $55 are the levels i'm looking at to get short. >> brian sutland. what are your levels and how do you see the trade moving? do we move higher from here before we go lower? >> yeah, i think anthony has got those levels right. i expect about $3.50 bounce off the lows, probably up to the $54/$55 level. ultimately oil is headed to $50 again. i think it needs to retest in the 40 range we saw six, nine months ago. so that's a possibility in the cards here that we eventually trade below 50. >> tune in to the online show, we'll talk more oil and also talk to peter bookvar who will tell us why the second half could be a little rocky for stocks. you don't want to miss it.

jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. do need a third for futures now crew?king of the dollar, scott, you know you're right, definitely seeing a stronger dollar. this son the back of modest gdp and also the fed statement yesterday. so i the question jeff killberg at this point is regoing to hear from the dped eventually that we're going to have a september rate hike? >> jackie, yesterday she kept her cards close to the vest. there are no tears in here, chicago, toughen up, weiss. what we're seeing out of the fed statement is that september, maybe not happening in september. obviously the market took is upbeat. seeing strength in the dollar. what the fed doesn't want to have happen is the dollar go through resistance, go another leg higher, that would be adverse to stocks. i think the dollar is going to stay on pause and continue to churn. >> brian in this kind of environment, how do you tratd the dollar? how do you trade it today? >> when you look at the dollar a couple of months ago it looked like it was going through a topping-out process over china news an

what dot numbers mean for the bond trade, yields have been active, jackie de angelis at the nymex with >> deutsche bank economists made the point that the weak jobs number may reduce the chance that we'll see september fed hike, rate hike from the fed. what do you think about joe's point. do you think it's accurate? >> i think he makes a great point. the headline number had something for everyone. you would have to be a sadist to like the wage or participation rate data. i think joe is right. a september rate increase is now off the table. if you look at the fed funds futures, they say it's about 80% we'll see you on in december. >> jeff, let's talk about if this does push the fed back a little bit. how do we trade the ten-year off that? >> i think the trading level is 2.42%, that's been the killer level. i think right now we're seeing buyers coming into the market. it's a choppy trade. scotty and i will go at it with some roman candles on the online show, it seems like the buyers are going to win, we'll go down 2.25, prices will go up, yields go down. >> we're on at 1:00 p.m. eastern.

jackie de angelis is at the nymex with the futures now crew. >> scott nations, a lot of people are pointingt factors in terms of what's happening with the crude trade. the number one factor is the dollar index, which is taking a breather today. >> that's right. but we've been focused so long on a strong dollar and huge supply and more supply supposedly coming out of iran. we forgot that last week we had a draw, we had a 4.3 million barrel draw. we're looking for more news like that next week or next, from last week. and also, we forget that the supply, was the lowest it's been since march. so weak dollar right now, stronger crude oil. >> brian stottland. take out the crystal ball. what's the next level? do we go higher or is it time to break under 50? >> i thought all along we would break under 50. the august crude was in the upper 40s, slightly below 50. that seems to be a support point. when you look at the oil volatility index. it actually although we've seen a volatile move down. not as volatile as it was three or six months ago. i like to see new lows being attempted. not as much volat