for "nightly business report," i'm jackie deangelis. >>e and that sharp r in oil highlights just how far this once beaten down sectoas come. but can the rally continue and what names might look attractive to investor right now. joining us is jeff killburg, founder and ceo of kkm financial. good to see you, jeff. welcome back. >>grthanks, sue. t to see you. >> jackie really laid it out so well pointing out thate we h 45% increase in oil prices in this year. soow much moreo you think is left in this rally? >> e, i think the trajectory is still higher. we saw one decertification. once president trump talked about the initial details and decertified the iran agreement, we saw a 5% move. the trajectory moves higher and as she stated, the tensions, the geopolitical tensions are mounting, not easing, sue. what abouthe oil stocks, the companies that either have to drill for it or distribute it or atever? how do you decide who to invest are there companies you like at this level? >> bill, there are. some of the best names we like are the chevron

>>lets' do futures jackie deangelis and the team following the dollar highest level of the year is thisitive for a third straight day brian studland we pointed out yesterday that sentiments in recent sessions turned positive. what's your outlook for the dollar index from here >> i think a few thing are going on globally with interest rates. when you look at it, u.s. interest rates are trading near 52 week eye highs. germany and japan have come off their highs significantly in the last few weeks that money movement moved into the u.s. dollars couple that with cryptocurrencies i look to them as a indicator to where money is flowing back into the u.s. dollar. with bitcoin moving higher we may get some colization because i think we are going to be a little bit i don't have bought but six to nine months we are looking at higher levels for the dollar from here. >> the move off of the lows out of that range has been clear and decisive i think it continues it's also above the 200 day moving average as brian said nothing moves in a one day street for that inc. long if it school states up here i

for "nightly business report," i'm jackie deangelis. >>> investors are also watching geopolitical developments especially when it comes to north korea. today it s reported that training exercises were itnceled, after threats from pyongyang toraw from next month's planned summit in protest of thoseed sed training exercises. >>> there is also uncertainty tisurrounding trade negot between the u.s. and china. they have been keeping investors on edge. white house economic adviser larry kudw said china is meeting many of our deand that it offered toe red their trade gap with the u.s. by more than $200 billion. the chinese were swift to react earlier today. >> u.s. officia have been quoted as saying that the chinese have been preparing a package that would help reduce the trade deficit by $200 billion. well, today the foreign ministry said that the chinese never said that. the spokes american said it is notrue. according to what i know, the relevant discussions are still ongoing and going in a constructive direction. he wouldn't provide any other details, but those reports had claimed that the chines

jackie deangelis. >> it is the highlight of my week u.s. oil drilling rig count is unchanged. 844.ccording the baker hughes the total number of rigs is up 124 from a year ago. now as prizes have risen we have seen rigs added week after week. this pause could signal the harkt is taking a breath to see what is next in terms of the price of oil if higher prices suppress demand overadding rigs isn't going to help >>> the farm bill in the house ayman javers has the details. >> this one is usually fairly non-controversial. the farm bill is one of those things that people on both sides of the aisle really like this one fell victim to in-fighting. the final vote count republicans by and large voted this down. the final vote was 213-198 republicans voting no, 30. republicans not voting at all, ten. that was the difference maker. that got cat up in a battle between republican conservatives and their own leadership over immigration. they wanted to vote on a hardline immigration matter. they weren't convinced they were getting what they have been promised from their leadership, so they voted t

let's bring in jackie deangelis who has more on energy >> great to see you. it's really interesting because when you focus on oil prices, you take a look at what's going on in the middle east. the last couple of days with some of the tensions we've seen in israel have certainly added support to these prices. with r wti now over $71 a barrel. israel not an oil producing region but at the same time any time there's strife in the area, investors worry. they also keep an eye on what's going on in iran because the iranians can create supply problems coming out of the region as well as we've seen in the past, when you have problems like these in reality, they do certainly tend to take these prices up. and they take them up pretty quickly. what's interesting, though, when we talk about the threat and to speak to what both bob and rick were talking about is the fact that demand has been a big piece of this story, but this morning the iea came out with its monthly report actually revising down its outlook for the second half of the year in terms of demand it was a sli

interesting possible developments surrounding saudi arabia and russia's crude oil production jackie deangeliss with more on this >> good morning. a huge drop for prices at the end of the week last week. another 2% decline today this is a be numbers game the opec cut is nearly 2 million barrels a day but the market was worried about the iranian barrels coming off line, about 500,000 barrels, and worried about venezuela. estimates there say we could see another 500,000 barrels come offline out of that country. add those together, that's 1 million barrels we're worried about. now opec, the russians, saudis, they're saying maybe we don't need to stick to this 2 million barrel a day cut the market is tight right now, maybe we can start bringing production back to make up for the short falls of other countries. so all eyes on the opec meeting june 22nd. >> all right joining us is helema croft from rbc capital markets. okay the saudis and russia suggesting they may want to raise production do you buy it? >> he thethere will be some inc. reports said it would be a couple hundred thousand or a million

. >>> if you're hitting the road this weekend, pump prices are on the move jackie deangelis with hereg >> it's been a long week how bad will it be >> i'm less concerned about this weekend. it's supposed to rain. next weekend is memorial day weekend. that's what everyone is focused on aaa saying the average for a gallon of regular now across the country is $2.91 we're just 9 cents away from that critical $3 mark. it is a psychological mark for consumers. we could get there by next weekend. certainly we'll get there this summer that's something to watch for. that's because oil prices have risen. wti is up 45% since this time last year. brent crude is up about 50%. we hit some major milestones yesterday when brent crossed 80. we are focused on geopolitics, watching the middle east the second sis the iranian barrels, when those will start coming offline and how much they will spook the market higher then you have a situation in venezuela where their production is decreasing at the same time and demand forecasts are robust around the world so this is a picture to see these prices go higher

. >>> the iea cutting its outlook for global demand as oil prices shoot higher jackie deangelis joinsk city with more. over to you. >> that's right. the key headline from the iea report here is the fact that they are lowering they're demand forecast ever so slightly. it's not a huge drop, but what they're saying is that the rising oil price could have a chilling effect on demand. why that's important is the run up in oil prices has been partially based on the fact we have seen these robust demand forecasts. the idea that strong demand will churn through excess supply in the gobel mlobal marketplace. that's one takeaway. the second thing is the fact that the agency talks about 1$12 million barrels a day in exportses that could be affected more and more traders say we don't know wlat impnoknow what s of this may be the fact that the u.s. pulled out of this deal does not mean iran's barrels will quom ocome e market at all or right away. we saw a build in the api inventories, that's taking prices down because investors are focusing on the fact that supply is going up and the iea saying de

. >>> we begin with oil's rapid rise jackie deangelis looks at how we got here and why. >> take a lookde oil was trading about 45% lower than its trading right now if we had a pen and drew a straight line, you see the trend line moving up there crossing 72 today and brent over 80 at one point in the session, both oil benchmarks saw the highest levels that they have seen since november of 2014. several game changing factors over the last year, guys number one, supply and demand did see some rebalance, better demand for oil helped work through that excess supply as opec and russia stay true to their promised cuts. number two, geopolitics. this theme comes and goes. right now it is back in focus. all eyes on israel, iran as well for any disruptions that could impact the market. number three, fx impact. the dollar is strengthening now, but on a relative basis, it is lower than it was this time last year that is supportive of oil prices too. things to watch, summer driving season, nothing bets prices moving seasonally more than consumers hitting the road and on the flip side, i just want to

. >>> welcome back to the halftime report i'm jackie deangelis this is futures now. 2018 below, trying to snap a three-day losing streak this as the dollar index is surging. scott nations you said investors hate gold the most tell us why you said this? >> right now they hate it for a couple of reasons. essentially a double whammy that has to do with high interest ratsd. the opportunity cost from investing in gold is higher now. but also, the stronger dollar means that -- or the higher interest rates means that the dollar is stronger and that's another reason that gold is having a really tough time as long as interest rates remain strong and head higher, gold is going to have a tough time. >> you are breaking down key levels we are trading under $11,300 here what do you want to do >> what the look for 12 of the 1 is where it's trading. once it broke the moving average yesterday 1305 the liquidation started. hedge funds liquidated half their long positions a and doubd their short pensiositions they think it's going lower. i think it gets to 1276. >> back with a live sh

today that asset class rallying as stocks are having their sell-off for more let's bring in jackie deangelis. >> gold is trading near session highs. back above 1300. president trump calls off the summit in singapore with kim jong-un. scott nations, let's start with you. you want to buy it here? >> no, i don't want to buy it here i'm not a fan. but this is the one sort of thing that would cause gold to rally. you expect it to rally what's interesting, though, is that stocks have come back so far. gold is up so much more than stocks are down. what does that tell you? i think it says that most of the gold buying is from international traders, not so much here. that's probably not good for the gold rally also the fact that gold futures are bumping up against the 200-day moving average right now. that's 1306. that will be a problem for bulls going forward. >> trading just under 1305 now what are the levels you're watching how high do you think we can go? >> scott mentioned it. it's at 1306 that's the 200-day between '06 and 22 the 200 d-day hedge funds continue to liquidate their positions. they

i'm jackie deangelis this is futures now.nking to its lowest level of 2018, tumbling as the dollar surges to a year-to-date high. jim, is this a move for gold that's all about the upside that we're seeing in rates on the dollar >> i think it's threefold. the least important of the three things is that it's below the psychological level of 1,300 and that matters slightly on a technical basis. the other two, the second most important is the dollar. the dollar broke out of a longer term low consolidation area and has been trading higher fairly significantly, but the most important thing is rates we flirted with 3% for a long time now it looks like we took out 3% and then it creates some hedging issues for mortgage backs, things like that, so rates appear to be going higher to me and gold will not like that. >> brian, it's a $27 move to the downside what are the levels to watch at this point >> well, if we close below 1,300, that's certainly a critical level when you look at the charts here. the downside target objective probably

i'm jackie deangelis this is futures now. the dollar index is soaring to its highest level in four months this after posting its best month since november of 2016 let's start with you, bob. dollar sentiment has been growing more positive in the recent sessions. what's your outlook? >> it's been growing less negative that bank of america merrill lynch survey in december called the four most crowded trades, one of those was being short the dollar the other was short volatility, long bitcoin and long tech all of these have now reversed i still don't think the dollar, we have an administration with an implicit weak dollar policy versus a fed that wants to normalize. that's the battle, maybe another three quarters of 1% is the top for the dollar index >> jim, on a technical basis, the dollar is crossing over its 200-day moving average that's the first time in a year we have seen that. what are the key levels to watch? >> i think the 200-day moving average thing makes a bigger deal if we close a few days above it nonetheless, this

jackie deangelis has a look at what drives that sometimes equities go down when oil goes down. we were just complaining about $4 gas >> we were talking about it last week we saw that plunge last week after the marketstarted digesting this chatter that maybe the russians and saudi arabians may stem some of the perceived losses from other opec members, iran and venezuela. opec will meet on june 22nd. so far the cartel has stuck to production cuts of almost 2 billion barrels a day. but the market was worried about the iranian barrels coming off line, about 500,000 barrels, and worried about venezuela. estimates there say we could see another 500,000 barrels come offline out of that country. add those together, that's 1 million barrels we're worried about. opec has not said anything formally last week crude was trading comfortably over 70 after running up in anticipation of the holiday weekend, summer driving. now it's well under 70 and seems to be declining. two other factors to consider here u.s. production has been rising steadily and demand forecasts have been robust so very qu

. >>> oil meantime off a buck and change jackie deangelis has a look at what's driving those move. decline. brent is a little higher now it may be time to put the oil back on, especially when you consider half a million barrels of iranian oil could come off-line at the end of the year and venezuela is -- recall, the russians complied with this production cut, but they were never really happy about it. the saudis have a vested interest in keeping praises higher some are speculating it could have to do with the relation of the united states. they implies there's more up side to the prices if the saudis attempt to balance this with more supply it could key the all eyes on -- and the average glad price, that's according to triple a. they fall a bit less quickly. also capital founding partner, good morning, guys >> you think the degree -- i think the saudis have to walk a very fine line i think this is all about pleasing donald trump in a -- they very much wanted the u.s. out of the nuclear deal. so i think it's going to be a fine line. >> john, are you there >> pretty much maybe in my

melissa, back to you >>> the oil market is closing for the day, let's get to jackie deangelis at the >> prices lower today. clearly, there is still some support in this trade. now, chatter in the marketplace at this point that opec may consider boosting production at the june meeting, to make up for anticipated shortfalls coming out of venezuela if they lose more barrels, it would be bullish for prices. an opec adjustment would keep prices level or take them lower from here. the dollar index continues to rise the dollar up 3 1/2% in the last month, guys? >> we've been watching that. >> jackie, thank you >> speaking of oil, production in north dakota is back near peak levels as crude oil prices continue to rise is a second bakken boom on the market >> take it away, brian. >> sayre remark thank you very much we try to get the song midnight at the oasis leading into this, we couldn't roll it up >> i want to talk about what jackie was talking about, venezuela, the slow rolling humanitarian production how much has their loss of barrels helped prices here or put a floor under prices >> it'

. >>> etf spotlight here jackie deangelis is looking at energy once again. >> crude prices are bouncingust turning to the south side here. no real direction at the moment. definitely some support for wti over 70 and brent certainly over 79 in the last month wti is up about 4% brent up around 8. so they won't make these big moves every day, even though the momentum seems to point higher energy stocks are mixed today. the etfs are look weak, the xip lower. energy has had a nice run alongside oil prices the sector seeing a 2% gain on the week, about a 6% gain on the month. where do we go from here probably higher according to analysts, maybe not in a straight line. more reasons right now to go up than down. guys >> all right jackie, thank you very much for that we'll watch wti closely today. >>> when we come back, the battle for cbsrages on the cbs board voting to strip shari redstone of control. and we'll talk to bob wright when "squawk on the street" mebacos ck let's begin. yes or no? do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions

. >>> brent losing 6% since the end of the last week jackie deangelis joins us with more of what's going are rebounding a little today this morning with wti back over 67 part of the conversation yesterday amongst traders was, is this a buying opportunity, and perhaps it is. the factors worrying the market is the loss of iran's barrels and problems in venezuela. those are not immediate problems opec is going to address them but not until later next month so in terms of supply and demand right now, not that much has changed to see these big swings in prices. tomorrow we'll hear from the eia on u.s. inventories. that report is delayed because of the holiday the forecast for tomorrow unchanged but typically at this time of the year you see substantial draws that will support prices and draw them up. closer to 11 million barrels a day. exports are rising, too. the other factor bearish in this trade and perhaps a factor last week, the dollar almost a 3% increase in the last month or so. it wasn't having a bearish impact at first but as it gains more momentum, definitely much bigger factor. now

. >> thank you, jackie deang liss. >>> the deal making president saying no deal trade talks moving along disputes reports that his administration will ease sanctions on zte pompeo making some comments on 'lge topic as well wel t some details next. dow is down 100. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber. one hour into trading and stocks are lower across the board s&p 500 down 0.3%. tiffany, ralph lauren and lowe's leading the way higher target at the bottom of the list some concerns about italy as well with those bonds getting slammed. the euro back to november lows and stocks down 1.5% >>> the president seeming to undercut his trade team yesterday announcing that no deal has been made with china or telecom giant zte. eamon javers watching this with some details >> a little like a game of deal or no deal around here trying to figure out where the trade team is going to come down. my sense of what's going on is the president is tolerating a little bit of dissension in the ranks among his economic advisers who fall on very different

can't wait that's the news update this hour i'll send it over to jackie deangelis for the eia inventory> good morning. the department of energy reporting a 6.2 million barrel build in crude oil inventories the build in gasoline as well up 1.2 million barrels. that number 6.2 million, was a little higher than traders were expecting. they are now trading lower overall, this is a bearish report you don't expect to see builds of this magnitude at this time as we're approaching memorial day. what's interesting, u.s. production, 10.619 million barrels, it is up again. the argument so far has been while the demand is there to meet rising u.s. production but keep an eye on that number because it continues to climb higher having said that, still reasons we're going to see support here and a reason that price didn't breach 67 this morning one of them is we're watching may 12 tot see what president trump does with the iran deal. does that oil stay on the market or come off? if it comes off, these prices will probably go up, guys. >> that will be key. jackie, thank you. >>> welcome back to "squawk

officially closed until july >>> and you are up to date that is the news update this hour now over to jackie deangelisg >> good morning, sue you can see crude oil is paring its losses after the department of energy reported a draw down in crude oil of 1.4 million barrels. draw down in gasoline as well of 3.8 million barrels. this was one of those interesting reports that flew in the face of what we heard from the api last night saying there was an almost 5 million-barrel build. that's why it's always important to wait for the actual government data. u.s. production did go a little higher 10.723 million barrels a day in terms of pricing, trading $70.75 you can see we're trading over $71 now. another key note this morning, the iaea was out with its monthly report and it's taking its demand forecast slightly lower because higher prices could have a chilling effect on demand, guys >> okay. jackie, thank you. >>> sticking with the oil beat, brian sullivan joins us from an energy and oil conference in houston. he's got a look at what's coming up next. >> yeah, david, thanks very much the market has been red

let's go to jackie deangelis >> crude oil saw about a 1% pop today despite a bearish inventory reportit was a little surprising 6.2 million barrels, on the high side, and u.s. production, another high of 10.62 million barrels a day. the market didn't take these data points to heart there are other reasons for support in this trade. president trump stands on the iran nuclear deal, perhaps the most impactful event people will be watching for may 12th today's session high 68.04 you have a good sense of where the boundaries are in this trade. >>> tesla set to report earnings after the bell and let's check in with phil lebeau in chicago hey, phil. >> one of the most anticipated earnings reports in the earnings report season comes from tesla it will come shortly after the close of the trading session and what are people going to be focused on it comes down to the model 3 and the question of cash burn. why focus on cash burn we know they have been chewing up cash as they ramp up production of the model 3. elon musk said we don't need to raise further capital. that will be addressed no doubt

driving season has officially started, many motorists are facing much higher prices at the pump jackie deangelisas the story >>> that's right with crude oil holding over 70, brent crossing 80 this week, all eyes on gas prices as we head into the weekend aaa has the national average for a gallon of regular at 2.96. we all know it's higher in a lot of places. that's up 59 cents from last year at this time. we didn't get to the $3 mark, but we are right there aaa is also forecasting almost 42 million people will get away this weekend that's the highest we've seen in almost a dozen years of those, almost 37 million will get in their car and they will drive somewhere. that means the road will be congested. for example, if you're leaving new york city between 3:30 and 6:30 tomorrow afternoon, multiply your normal travel time by a factor of almost three, not fun. rescues, aaa will rescue more than 340,000 motorists, we're talking dead batteries, lockouts, flat tires, you name it $3 gas coming sooner in the season than previously expected. these oil prices are staying supportive >> does that mean higher

i think we had heard from jackie deangelis for them to operate on a long-term basis, they need the pricereak even they're in control right now although u.s. production is ramping up in a big way. permits in texas are up 34% year on year. there's scores of drill of uncompleted wells. we could see a burst that gets us over 11 million barrels a day. that's the horse race we're in does the decline in venezuela and the purposeful withholding to the open market by saudi offset enough of the u.s. growth right now it is. right now the saudis are winning thanks to venezuela's implosion. we'll see if we can edge them out. for now it'sgoing the stay hig and it could be engineered higher by the saudis until they get pressured by president trump. >> you think that's a four or five month situation >> i don't think we see any addressing of the situation until q4 >> is there a natural lid on oil prices is there a natural ceiling one would expect producers come online and start drilling for oil at a breakneck pace at these prices and then therefore in the longer run reduce the price of oil? >> which they