it is business as usual ahead of jackson hole. 30 day challenge. chancellor merkel gives boris johnson a month to find a solution. >> if we approach this with patients and optimism, we can get this done. .> and breaking the cycle hsbc speaks out on the unrest in hong kong. this comes as australia's flag carrier said it is taking some capacity out of the region. >> we are going to do that over the next few months. take 7% of capacity out. we anticipate this will continue for a few months. this is the manus: thing that caught my site line this morning. this delusion. that the fed is making a midcycle adjustment to monetary policy. are we midcycle or is there more? >> they gave us three reasons for that cut. they said it was an insurance cut. can you fault those things? absolutely. the market is baying for blood. they managed to crawl out of negative territory yesterday. let's have a look at the board. let's have a look at the chart. members voted against the move. are we really midcycle? the fed's unity could be fraying. deeper for

it was supposed to be about jackson hole.ad it is about the trade war and that is dragging on the major averages. the dow, the s&p, and the nasdaq all lower. the nasdaq being dragged down by the chips which have a sensitivity to china and the trade war. down more than 2% and making this a risk off day, look at the rally for bonds. the best day for the 10 year yield an almost two weeks as investors are fleeing the riskier assets of stocks and going into haven bonds. as we break it down, it did not start off this way. if we look at

kathleen hays at jackson hole.et's get a check on what is happening with the markets now with sophie. sophie: the kiwi dollar rising 0.3% on the back of adrian orr's comments on a long-term path for the economy. the toolkit at his disposal, including negative rates. taking a bigger picture view on the kiwi dollar, this has given support, little nearing the lowest level since 2016. coming through as we are waiting readingow traders are -- are reacting to what governor orr had to say. japanese assets, we did get cpi data earlier. the yen not doing much, trading in a tight range with inflation coming in line with estimates of about 0.6% on a year on year basis. powell very much and focus. it may rise to 107 for the japanese currency. jgb's, we will be keeping an eye on that ahead of fund operations in the one to 10 year zone. jgb likely to keep falling today. >> as sophie mentioned, we have seen core prices for japan coming in line with estimates. we have seen a little bit of pressure when it came to the national numb

juliette: all eyes on jackson hole.heg rise in the kiwi after speakingrnor orr was to kathleen hays on the sidelines of the symposium saying the rbnz is willing to do whatever it takes to support the economy, even though we have already had 50 basis points of cuts this month. the nikkei is up by 0.4% in late trade. we are seeing a rebound in aussie stocks as well. holding onto those gains from yesterday. hong kong's market has been fluctuating, but it is up by 0.5% in the afternoon session. reinhardt,ing from saying to kathleen hays at jackson hole that potentially hong kong has the threat to throw the world and global recession. recession.bal >> these are global consequences. what could be a tipping point that could trigger a very significant global slowdown, even a recession. those concerning words after we saw the hang seng index hit a death cross where we saw the 200 day and the 50 day moving average cross. todaye seen a rebound after stocks hit that ominous level. the hang seng is on track for a weekly gain of 1.7%

you want to be long yen into jackson hole. positioning is stretched, and they haven't seen at this stretched since 2015, when yen flipped over by 2.5%. let's talk about the markets. momentum is changing. mr. trump said the u.s. is doing "very well." talking, trump added that it isn't ready to sign a deal. a suggestion comes only hours after his top economic adviser laid out a potential timeline for reviewing discussions with -- renewing discussions with beijing. apple ceo tim have voiced concerns about the main competitor -- tim cook had voiced concerns about their main competitor, samsung, gaining an edge. their product won't become subject to tariffs like apple's. the u.s. may renew while way -- huawei's general temporary license. >> we don't want to do business with huawei for national security reasons. we will see what happens. i am making a decision tomorrow. manus: joining me is my guest host, chris wiley. good to see you this morning. another day, another slight risk on momentum. i make it 2-0. two on the office side --

let's focus on the fed and jackson hole. joining us is the cio for international wealth management in the global head of economics and research at credit suisse. great to have you. how much of a turning point for the jerome powell's speech be? anette: really, all eyes are on the guidance that will be offered by jerome powell. in the most recent days, there has been an interpretation that he has perhaps been on the hawkish side with some members of the federal reserve not seeing the need immediately to cut further rates but there is this a normal's influence that fed and monetary policy has on markets and a lot of expectations built in. so i believe the markets will and ivery sensitively believe there will be a loss of focus on jackson hole overall. will powell pushback on market pricing? nannette: it is a very thin line he will be walking here. to be honest, the manufacturing sector worldwide, including in the united states, is undergoing a period of weakness. the more protracted and the uncertainty is, the deeper it will af

time for another big interview from jackson hole, wyoming. kathleen hays is in jackson hole.ous here in new york city. >> for many reasons, not only its beautiful backdrop, but is the 35th year here at the jackson lake lodge and one of the most difficult situations the fed has found itself in. powell kicking things off here. here to discuss the message is barry eichengreen, professor of economics at uc berkeley. the basic question for everyone wellhing markets is is po ready to do another rate cut? >> i think he is. he talked about trade policy uncertainty, the collapse of the italian government, brexit, and other external and internal threats to the u.s. economy. all that reinforced the impression that more rate cuts are likely coming. >> the economy right now is pretty good. i found it interesting that he said that we have to look out over the next year. we have to look at how all these things are going to affect the economy. >> he did not use the words data dependent, but i think the fed is still data dependent and how it thinks about future rate cuts. the latest incoming

i'm kathleen hays in jackson hole. here are some of the stories we are covering at this hour -- the pressure is on powell. the fed chair opens the kansas city symposium at the jackson lake lodge with three regional fed bank presidents saying now is not the time to cut. : the aussie dollar has been a key shield for australia, but it easing poses a threat, and boris johnson beats a brexit blockade in paris as mccrone -- as emmanuel macron says any potential changes to the deal would be minimal at best. shery: we have some big guests coming up on "daybreak." first, let's get you started with a check of how markets closed on this thursday session here in the u.s. it was a bit of a mixed picture. we saw the doubt at about 50 points, but the s&p 500 gave up morning gains. we had more cautious commentary coming out of that officials when it comes to future rate cuts, so that really helped curve.rt that 2/10 yield materials and health care stocks leading the declines, weighing on the stock markets. we are also seeing manufactur

can you describe for us the mood among policymakers at jackson hole at the moment -- kathleen hays is in wyoming now. i see some top fed officials starting to wonder into the jackson lake lodge where this is that has been held -- this is the 30th year it has been hell here. the symposium held for 35 years, but three decades, but this is the day before it actually starts in the evening. friday is the day powell gives his speech. these minutes make it all the more interesting, don't they, what jay powell is going to say in a speech that everyone around the world is waiting to hear. it is clear that at least in the minutes, yes, this was viewed as , to outlook weak global growth, trade uncertainty, as you said, but also putting in three reasons signs of economic deceleration, risk management concerns, and too low inflation. there's a lot of talk today about this is not as dovish as some people had expected. the kansas city fed and the ,oston fed had dissented explaining that at length with me on monday, but remember, july 31 was when they made that rate cut. these are the minutes that so

michael mckee is with us in jackson hole.random selection of those who i was able to do interviews with ahead of time. we will hear more from the devilish side this morning -- the dovish side this morning. we will hear from jim bullard at the top of the hour. it's a situation where probably not a lot has changed in terms of who will go which direction. it's also important to remember who is voting. pat harker not voting this time. is.er i feel like we want to walk this question forward. how many ounces of prevention are necessary to sufficiently give an accommodative boost to the economy? what is that conversation now? michael: you hit the nail on the head there, alix. if the fed is going to be cutting rates, jay powell in july characterized it as a midcourse correction. wall street sees a recession ahead. how much accommodation to the various fed officials think we even even if we think -- if they think we do need a rate cut? is this a correction, or the beginning of a rate cut cycle? this is an important conversation throug

jackson hole antitrade. president -- jackson hole and trade. president trump announced he would respond to china slapping tariffs on u.s. goods. this was part of the tweet threads. there were several more tweet threads. here to discuss it is damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence. this morning we had china headlines that roiled markets. we saw soybeans drop, we saw crude oil drop, and then we had relief when the fed chair spoke at jackson hole. suddenly markets are off a cliff. this is threatening the stability of financial markets in the u.s., isn't it? damian: absolutely. a lot of spreads at the end of the curve are blowing out. this has to do with plumbing int goes on in the fed, but the last 100 years the only incumbent presidents to not get reelected presided over a session. president trump knows this. he needs to right the ship. things are weakening and he needs to do whatever he can to stimulate the economy. kevin: to that point precisely, the president just weeding out earlier today "my only question is who is our bigger enemy? ?"y p

fed chair jay powell has to strike a fine balance at jackson hole.ears of recession swirl, but regional fed presidents question the need for more cuts. >> as i look at where the economy is, it is not yet time. i'm not yet ready to provide more accommodation to the economy, without seeing an outlook that suggests the economy is getting weaker. matt: a working weekend at the g7. french president emmanuel macron tells boris johnson a new brexit deal in 30 days is unlikely to happen, and italy has a few more days to cobble together an unlikely coalition. plus, the perfect storm. germany's buddhist bank -- bundesbank say it is not time for stimulus even as sentiments hours on the manufacturing sector. welcome to bloomberg markets, the european market open. we're looking at futures pointing to gains. the u.s. 10-year yield continues to climb. 1.64%, 1.65% the next stop, and in terms of european equity index futures, we see green across the board, on s&p futures as well. upe a look, dax futures .75%, cac futures up .66%, ftse futures gaining about 51 points

news,en hays, bloomberg jackson hole, wyoming.avid: here's the state of play and condition of the world, if you will. the world map you see and read, that basically means markets expect rates to fall in those places. pretty measure across the board with the exception of iceland and a couple markets in latin america. story,et more on the vanguard has more than five between dollars in assets under management globally. very nice to see you, good morning from hong kong. we're just talking about the fed there. let's start with that. month's points for next -- seems to be baked in. what comes after that is the specific question. >> that is our baseline, but i think the problem is that if that is to influence expectations, they better do something that is unexpected. if they come up with a 25 basis out withhey could come the dovish statement saying we will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, or it could come up with a 50 basis point is not then say the risk balanced enough. i think what's going to happen after september, it really

up, we are live from jackson hole.iss our interview with -- with a host of fed president, starting with esther george. tomorrow, a stellar lineup on bloomberg television. minutes away from the open. we will take a look at your stocks to watch, including ryanair after they lost a court battle to block a pilot strike. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ about seven just minutes away from the start of cash trading. let's get your stocks to watch from around the newsroom. annmarie hordern looking at ryanair. dani burger focusing in on aviva. let's start with ryanair. >> if you turkey -- if you are taking a ryanair flight this we can from the u.k., you may see disruptions. the company will be bracing for. they are preparing for disruptions. i have to give you this stat. it is slated to carry 249,000 people on more than 1700 flights over the next 48 hours. i am traveling this holiday weekend. i am not flying ryanair. matt: all right. not flying ryanair may be a good choice, especially considering the circumstances. what's the story with

what are you hearing at jackson hole, what are people talking about? megan: a lot of people are talking about trade. i thought the message from jay powell's speech was that the fed does not set trade policy, and there is no precedent for how they should respond to it. they will do their best but they don't really have a framework for how to think about this. the strongest pushback we have seen from the fed in terms of trade. that being said, i don't even think jay powell's speech will make the front page of tomorrow's paper. it will be about trade. interestingly, the more important place to be right now is the g7 meeting, rather than jackson hole, although i'm not particularly optimistic about any action being agreed upon there. amanda: it is so interesting because we are worried about central banks at their limit in terms of their ability to help economies, so that the talk turns to fiscal. not a lot of physical capacity for governments around the world. do you think there will be some sort of agreement in trying to help the world economy? washington

in jackson hole, wyoming. it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk on the street" is -- "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla live with morgan brennan at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. jon fortt has the morning off. the markets have lost some gains as all eyes are turning to jackson hole steve liesman is there as the fed's two-day annual economic symposium kicks off. hey, steve >> hey, carl this is from our icon. but the september fed fund futures has now flipped from a small probability of a 50 basis point cut in september to a small probability that the fed remains on old just to be clear, a 98% probability that the fed does cut by a quarter, but it was like a 2% probability of a fed now it's a 2% cut that the fed remains on hold in september maybe some of that coming from the sort of hawkish talk or less dovish talk we've gotten from two federal reserve officials here in jackson hole so far. i say "so far," because there's a lot yet to come. i'll g

central bankers in jackson hole that was hands carter thank you very much. see sun sand and surf as holiday destinations go the southwestern french city of garrett's pretty much has it all but this weekend it's playing host to the g 7 meeting while that might move the political contests it certainly isn't doing much for business in the city. normally at this time of year periods as beaches would be full of tourists looking to catch some waves or raise instead it's hosting some of the world's most powerful political leaders in town for the g. 7 summit. ahead of the start of the event on friday the city is in lockdown the airport and main train station will be closed to the public certain parts of the city including the beach are only open to residents that have permits. according to the local mayor though there is no major problem. but the books and he said 1st of all i would say and berates about everyone knows that starting august 20th we see a decrease in the number of tourists we are not at the peak holiday season of august member of the but local busines

coming up, we go live to jackson hole.ost of fed officials including today, esther george and tomorrow, a full lineup, all here on bloomberg television. ♪ ♪ francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." talk about brexit. angela merkel has said boris johnson a challenge to stop the irish border backstop within 30 days. merkel says it is up to the u.k. to bring alternatives to the backstop and johnson agrees the onus is on us. a no deal brexit is now the likeliest scenario. thank you for sticking around. when you look at the concern surrounding this, both sides are keeping the option open they will find agreement, but how do you solve the backstop in a way the e.u. agrees and boris johnson says that is ok? rosalind: only a few weeks to go until brexit is due to happen, what we saw yesterday was the tiniest hint there may be a willingness to talk, perhaps if boris johnson will promise to leave without a deal -- promise not to leave without a deal. boris johnson wants the backstroke gone and europe will not renegotiate. they ca

mike mckee at the annual economics symposium in jackson hole, wyoming.her: as i look at where the economy is, it is not yet time. i'm not ready to begin to provide more accommodation to the economy without seeing an outlook that was a just the economy is getting weaker. michael: hiring has slowed. our companies struggling to find workers, or are they cutting back or limiting hiring because of uncertainty about where the economy is going? esther: the reports are that businesses are still having a hard time finding people. they are still wrestling with wages and thinking about how to compensate a workforce that they need to be productive. i think that still is one of their largest concerns, keeping the workforce they have and figuring out how to compensate them in a way that will keep them. guy: my next question is where is that wage pressure we should be seeing that you've been looking for? anna: i think we are seeing higher wages. it's true that for a number of years, even as the unemployment rate came down, we were not seeing a pickup in wages. over the

jay powell feeling the heat as he prepares to deliver highly anticipated remarks this morning in jackson hole, wyoming, investors on edge. wall street treading water as it awaits the comments from powell. the yield curve between positive and negative as markets fear the fed may not have enough ammunition to stave off a global economic slow down. >> the hawks are out to play also taking comments from top fed president. trade turmoil, white house economic adviser larry kudlow signaling new in person trade talks with china and e-commerce on alert a new porch pirate threat that could have online shoppers running to protect their picnic baskets. it's friday, august 23rd and worldwide exchange begins right now. >> he faces one of the most divided central banks we have seen in ten years. those comments are due out at 10:00 a.m. and we'll take you there live on cnbc those comments will be the ones traders pay the most attention to today now the stock futures indicating a higher open. the bond market always a focus right now and the ten year note yield below 1.65% and the two year note yield 1.64%. ch

we start today with jackson hole. the economic symposium will be one of the most closely watched in years. already kansas city fed president esther george tells bloomberg now was not the time for more rate cuts. >> as i look at where the economy is, it is not time. i am not ready to provide more accommodation to the economy without seeing an outlook that suggests the economy is getting weaker. sherry: let's bring in bloombergs international and economic policy correspondent michael mckee live from jackson hole. you have a very busy schedule ahead. we heard from esther george, but she is not the only one having reservations. no wonder we are seeing this market reaction. michael: the data seems to suggest that the fed would have an excuse for doing it when we saw the ism numbers for market today go below 50. that is a disappointing figure suggesting a contraction in manufacturing, suggesting the fed could make a case. still a long time between now and then. you have to remember we are talking about where politics meets

investors wait for the main event in jackson hole. we speak to esther george, kansas city fed president. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday, august 22. i'm alix steel. david westin is off in italy, so awa will be joining me for the hour. luke: it's got to be great to wake up as a traitor and not be artillery shelled through bloomberg push notifications and see the s&p already down. . to help with risk appetite. -- got to help with risk appetite. alix: as you were pointing out, you're not going to see a lot of movement ahead of what is going to have any jackson hole. s&p futures down by about two tents of 1%. you have utilities making a record high yesterday, so a little bit of risk on the side. you do have dollar u.n. -- an with its biggest drop yesterday. time now for global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from around the world. joining us from london is bloomberg's emma chandra. from wyoming, michael mckee. from sao paulo, julia leite. first, i want to start in europe. euro area pmi's coming in

paul: jackson hole awaits jay powell speech. observers came to learn about the fed's rate policy and where the economy is heading. toughent trump talks saying america is winning the trade with china but the u.s. deficit is set to balloon to $1 trillion. hong kong protesters mark one month since gang attacks on the subway. wantswants -- beijing companies to toe the line. shery: let's get a quick check of the market close in the u.s. stocks are higher but after paring back some of those earlier gains, every sector in the s&p 500 was in the green. we had consumer discretionary and tech leading the way. not to mention we had numbers out of retailers like lowe's. we also had them from target. that helped with investor confidence. we had home depot showing signs that the second half would be strong. we had seen that rally. this is adding to the sentiment. at the same time, we have the fomc minutes. after that, the two-year treasury yield rallying. and we have eight the yield curve -- and we have the yield curve inverting. s&p active f

bloomberg caught up with a ton of top fed officials on friday in jackson hole.ing ontois the table here. obviously, the markets as it as a base case. important thats we watch the data. adjustmentn to an either in september or over the next few meetings. i would prefer not to have to make any adjustment. >> we have to act as appropriate when we see the economy having a shock. >> i'm not ready to provide more accommodation the economy without seeing outlook that suggests the economy is getting weaker. nejra: joining us is a senior fx and precious metal strategist. we have seen the market react to powell's words. he dropped the phrase midcycle adjustment. what are you expecting out of a september meeting and the rest of this year in terms of cuts? >> thanks for having me. we expect a rate cut of 25 basis points every meeting this year. that means three in total. we don't have 50 basis points in our base scenario for september. the action on the markets in general was a bit more muted. thell went down after reaction of china. it is also what you see can you ofay, th

vonnie: we anticipate the start of the jackson hole symposium. of 1%. 500 up about 1/3 nordstrom showed more cost cutting, and that has analysts a little bit hopeful for the future of nordstrom is a prospect. it is up 12%. the s&p at 2934. the 10 year yield at 1.58% today. of earnings,t cloud software companies a little higher today. in august a thursday before powell speaks on a friday. volume is anemic once again on european markets. stoxx 600 is negative now, down by less than 2/10 of 1%. the pound is moving relatively aggressively on a number of different things. there's a reuters report talking about a regime that would allow the continuity of the good friday agreement for the irish border. emmanuel macron talked about an intelligent solution to the brexit impasse. all of these factors helping the pound get a lift today. i think positioning is also a factor in this. the italian 10 year not budging that much, but keep an eye on it. reportsla, the suggest, wants a coalition formed by the end of today. salvini is about to go see the italian pre

powell's comments at jackson hole but trump reversed that.athleen: this is the speech everyone was waiting for, fed chair, traditionally as the fed chair, kicking off the symposium with a speech people will say, will he signal a rate hike? you can see him walking with mark carney, still president of the bank of england. he did open the door to a rate cut. he cited global -- slowing global growth and looked ahead, even if the economy looks solid now. there is a focus on trade that apparently got donald trump. trade policy uncertainty is playing a role in the global slowdown. that is no surprise. everyone agrees. and then the thing he said before, which is that we will act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion. people take this as a sign he is on the side of the fed getting ready for a rate cut. what happens next? trump blasted powell in a way we have hardly ever seen. this was as stocks had been rallying. let's look at what trump tweeted out. what he said, as usual the fed did nothing. e wasbody at jackson hol going, donald trump ha

warned you that the likes of mark carney from the bank of england will be standing on us soil in jackson hole this last weekend and saying get rid of the dollar we warned you the gold would be rising as the system under which we live would be collapsing and the us empire is definitely going down in a very roman style decline i fully expect trump will point to a favorite horse to replace jay powell by the end of this year sounds like a george galloway speech we warned you about a pack of lies it's a pack of lies of course for the scottish brogue hey george what's happening you've got it all your are is about at the med he's running down yes that's right but look george talk about trump i know it's happening in the united states just cable news is the as i say a professional wrestling the heel right and trump is steve austin. all the miles entire career on steve austin the professional wrestler and now we've got mark carney bashing the dollar we've got the world waking up to the fact that the u.s. dollars world reserve currency is a huge liability for everybody including the united states and w

at jackson hole, wyoming. it's 11:00 a.m. street and "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> good friday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan here at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. jon fortt has the morning off. vmware announcing two new acquisitions and at the bottom of the hour, imf chief economist live from jackson hole to talk about the remarkable morning we've had with chair powell, china tariffs and a lot more >> remarkable, to say the least. but we begin i

in jackson hole, wyoming. it's 11:00 a.m.and "squawk on the street" is -- "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> good thursday

first time in it's 44 year history >>> fed chair jerome powell is set to address the group at jackson hole later on today. the fomc minutes released this week showed members remained divided over a decision to lower rates by a quarter percentage point but policy makers agreed that the move should not be seen as a signal that rates are on a preset course. now this morning in europe we're seeing stocks move higher as investors await this key speech from the federal reserve chairman at jackson hole we have the ftse 100 up 0.6% the dax up a third of a percentage point and the cac and the italian index also moving higher and in italy we're all watching political developments there. the president has given the political parties until tuesday to try to get together a coalition. we're a little bit in wait and see mode when it comes to italian politics let's look at european yields. at the margin more hawkish than the market expected. this has driven a move higher in yields german bund has risen to the higher level since the beginning of the month quite a move in the yield space. now in terms of fr

steve liesman joining us from jackson hole, wyoming. it does look like at this point -- it almost looks like the fed is a derivative of trade because trade has a direct impact on the economy, the global growth outlook, and that will determine what the fed does. >> and you saw it manifest itself in the stock market today. jay powell said, listen, there's no set way, set rules on how to handle a trade dispute, and they're going to be by the data dependent, which they always say. if you look and say, okay, a trade dispute is going to make the data deteriorate, of course you will have a fed that cuts rates. it is not going to help, but they'll continue to cut rates because that's all they can do. >> so are we at a point where the fed cuts rates and the market doesn't look at that positively >> yes i think you are at a point where it is 50 basis points is going to reenter the conversation. i don't think 50 is going to happen, but i think there was a shot that 25 didn't happen before i think there was a shot that they were going to do nothing

maybe confused jackson hole with upcoming policy meeting. andave a very strong dollar a very weak fed, and the u.s. will do great. my only question is who is the bigger enemy, jay powell or chairman she. - xi. that trump had tweeted traders coming. a tough day for stocks, but the fed part did not help iver. -- either. clinical, so much for independence of the fed. what was the reaction -- political independence of the fed. what was the reaction? kathleen: aghast. concern. what does this mean, it is undermining the fed as an institution. the concerned that fed independence is being threatened. saidn, everyone i talk to the fed, even though we are not perfect and do not know is make perfect decisions, that independence of the federal reserve is absolutely critical for the american economy. kathleen: and for the federal reserve, let's remember. this does not seem to affect the rate debate, it is how they view the economy. pat harker says he is on hold for rate carts -- rate cuts. jim bullock says you have to run invert the yield curve. cut in 5

michael mckee, argued th-- are you there in jackson hole? michael: yes, we are in jackson hole. romaine: great interview there. towards the end of the clip we just played, she talked about the idea equilibrium. how alone is she with regards to fomc members from esther george, in that thinking right now? michael: in that thinking she is probably with the majority, given that we don't really know neutral is. it is more of a feeling that an actual number you can pick out of the air. there are a lot of people on the fed who think we are at or close to neutral. one of her adjustment they might make to take out so-called insurance for the economy would not be that large. that is why you see even doves like jim bullard, one of the first people to call for a rate cut, saying he is not ready to do 50 basis points. we are still set up for a rate cut, perhaps, but not as much as one as wall street might have hoped. caroline: we have also just got international geopolitics, something to the federal reserve is having to digest. i want to ring viewers breaking news out of rome. the italian pr

the fed's fight over the future playing out real-time in jackson hole the big focus turning to the fedhamp powell, to his speech tomorrow morning let's go to steve liesman live in jackson hole for us we got a dose of fed speak today at least. >> we did. we had the first official to speak at the annual gathering in jackson hole beneath the tee time but they didn't tell the markets what they wanted to hear about the need for deep interest rate cuts in the months ahead. >> i didn't think the cut was appropriate necessarily, but i went along with it to get back to neutral i am on hold right now my forecast is just to hold. >> my sense was we've added accommodation. >> right. >> and it wasn't -- it wasn't required in my view. >> i think we're in a good place relative to the mandates that we're asked to achieve >> now, dallas fed president robert kaplan said he wants to avoid cutting rates if he can, but he says he is open minded about rate cuts. he also is concerned that the big decline we had in bond yields is sending a fed a message it should not ignore the comments from the three fed pre

don't go anywhere. >>> a live shot of jackson hole. of the traditions of this symposium that the kansas ci city fed holds there is the fed chair what a morning he's had, what a month, what yeaa year, what a t, really, as we digest the text from his speech earlier today and talk about what it means for the fed's optics, the way they're going to process data, the way they're going to handle the president and critics of all kinds. steve liesman joins us from there. mike santoli is here on set as we try to put into context everything we've learned, steve, in really, what, just the past four hours or so >> yeah, well, i mean, if you try to divine a little bit message of him walking with outgoing governor of england, mark carney. i suppose the u.s. and the uk on the monetary policy front are as good as friends as exist in the world today. i wouldn't say mario draghi is any less of a friend, but certainly, carney he was instrumental in working with foreign central banks and the united states when it came to the financial crisis he heads the f

china being this boogie man it was it was the likes of larry summers who by the way was up at jackson hole as well and basically saying trump is a maniac and supporting all these things that mark carney is saying which is the next headline but it was you know bill clinton who presided over them being becoming part of the w.c. oh and they've used those rules to be able to you know basically take over the world and u.s. corporations are the ones who exported the jobs there you know that's why some people are doing very well the likes of jeff bezos that's why he's worth $120.00 or $30000000000.00 then over at the jackson hole i want to point out and remind everybody that that and risky reliance on us dollar bank of england's card. he says this is the sort of stuff that the d.n.i. looks at kaiser report we've been warning you for the last 10 years and they say well that's bad and that's unpatriotic by here as bank of england governor mark carney took aim at the u.s. dollars destabilizing role in the world economy on friday and said central banks might need to join together to create their own

waiting for chair powell to break his silence. >> jackson hole. >> jackson hole. >> jackson hole has

steve liesman is at the annual symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. >> reporter: fed reserve chairman. powell with his keynote speech at the annual summit here in jackson hole, guardedly suggesting that the federal reserve could ces interest r in the months ahead. even though he said the u.s. economic situation is favorable, he noted that trade policy is playing a role in a global slowdown and that manufacturing and business has weakened both. there's only so much the federal reserve can do to address trade policy but could address some of the fall-out fromt. in a cnbc exclusive interview, e chairman's outlook was backed up. >> it is favorable, the economy is in a good place but there are significant risks. the global economy is slowing. there are uncerinties about trade policy and those are factoring in. we run monetary policy for the u.s. but we have to take into account globalop devnts. they impact exports and inflation and we will factor it in as we need to. >> other fed members here in jackson hole supported lowererg the it rate but for other reasons. >> what the market is saying

jackson hole and trade.irst two trade president trump , saying he will respond to china slapping another 75 billion in tariffs on u.s. goods. this is threatening the stability of financial markets in the u.s. >> the only incumbent presidents not getting reelected presided over recession. i think trump knows he has to rectify the situation. things are weakening. he needs to do whatever he can to stimulate the economy. kevin: the president tweeting out my only question is who is enemy, chairman he hasor president xi? made a calculation he is going to double down on attacks on attacks in central banks. >> i think the reaction back and forth has been instructive. you saw stocks fall after headlines china was going to retaliate and raise tariffs on u.s. imports. after that, jay powell's speech pledging to act as appropriate and hinting at more easing was enough to push stocks up. president trump came out and developmentstrade to digest. now the facts are back down. emily trump said he is going to : respond and he

and later full coverage from the jackson hole fed symposium we'll kick off coverage. ed, you're watchin sqwkoxn cnbc through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from finding out what's selling best... to managing your fleet... to collaborating remotely with your teams. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence. lower carbs. lower calories. ♪ higher expectations. ♪ the light beer you've been waiting for has arrived. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. >>> welcome back to squawk box another recession warning with another brief inversion of the 10 and 2 year treasury yields. that happened yesterday for the second time since last week but we're seeing mixed signals here bank of america's ceo yesterday on the health of the consumer. >> more importantly they're spending more money. so in our customer bas

jackson hole is a big opportunity for the federal reserve. it is almost the prom for central bankers to come together and really look panoramically at what is happening in the long term, where is monetary policy going of course, we know that the posture right now for monetary policy is that there are really a lot of very good questions that are going to be potentially addressed at jackson hole. questions regarding what does it mean to conduct monetary policy when you are so close already to the zero lower bound, and yet you may need more expansionary policy what are the tools that the fed has to actually expand the economy if it needs to in case we are, in fact, going into a protracted downturn? so the opportunities for telegraphing some of the big challenges for monetary policy will be present at jackson hole and, of course, the short-term signaling as to what will happen at the september fomc meeting. so it is a big opportunity, and the topic, of course, as you mention is one that is broad enough to encompass really a lot of timely and impo

central bankers in jackson hole that was hands carter thank you very much. see sun sand and surf as holiday destinations go the southwestern french city of berets pretty much has it all but this weekend it's playing host to the g 7 meeting while that might move the political contests it certainly isn't doing much for business in the city. normally at this time of year pierrots as beaches would be full of tourists looking to catch some waves or raise instead it's hosting some of the world's most powerful political leaders in town for the g. 7 summit. ahead of the start of the event on friday the city is in lockdown the airport and man transportation will be closed to the public was certain parts of the city including the beach are only open to residents that have permits. according to the local mayor though there is no major problem. but the books and he said 1st of all i would say and barrett's everyone knows that starting august 20th we see a decrease in the number of tourists we're not at the peak holiday season of august member of the but local business p

jayederal reserve chairman powell speaks at jackson hole. of --are at a sort >> we have to be careful not to ease too much when we do not have significant problems. >> lower rates will stimulate our economy somewhat. >> i think we are where we need to be. >> it is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. hello and welcome. i am rosalind chin. "bloomberg best." let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines. on monday, markets responded positively to news that trade tensions. >> the commerce department announcing the u.s. will review days soei waiver for 90 companies can continue to do business. >> they have 90 days for limited part of their business. this extends a reprieve. u.s. customers of huawei, particularly those who run networks that depend on equipment. headsetpliers of the business. itsre looking at google and android software. this allows google to keep updating phones with security patches. careful about over interpreting this. there is a crackdown happening. addedpartment of commerce 46 new subsidiaries. retrievea temporary

centralnsions rising as bankers gather in jackson hole.ed chair powell warning of significant risks. bids send shares to fresh lows. the ceo defends the deal. last on the from u.s. china trade war. tariffs ratcheted up just as the federal reserve gathers for their annual conference in jackson hole. here's what they had to say about the latest developments. this trade war is triggering other actions around the world, other countries thinking about reevaluating their trade relationships. >> trade uncertainty is with us. express as leaders fair amount of uncertainty and concern about knowing where export markets are going and what their opportunities are going to be. >> we have to keep monitoring whether firms are going to keep reacting the way they have, whether it will spill into their hiring plans as well. caroline: let's get even more up-to-date reaction from michael mckee. mike, how has the response been to china acting on new tariffs and the reaction and the response we await from president trump? mike: everybody is waiting to see what

feeling heat preparing to deliver more from jackson hole hear from st.dent james boller ahead of today's big avent. >>> wall street trading water awaiting comments from powell and the yield car seesaws. >>> plus a rise in vape-related illnesses grabs attention of the government former fda commissioner scott gottlieb joins us to discuss possible regulatory action as this second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york this is "squawk box." >>> good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with kelly evans and andrew sorkin and u.s. equity futures in the green up 33 points or so. the s&p indicated up just under 6 and the nasdaq indicated um about 19 right at 6:30 a tweet saying there will be some type of retaliation. don't know what they are but i can tell you it ended with, the u.s. will feel pain. what it ended with it's another little -- >> the last time the explicit threat was rare earths who knows. who knows what form. >> right at about 6:30 i don't know i

today at g7 tomorrow. >> jackson hole -- what is happening in jackson hole is not the reason the> jackson hole not reason capex down 6/10 of a percent the rfrn for that you know i know trade uncertainty. >> don't say i know. >> okay what do you know? >> what i know q12019, 3% growth rate the if you will point attributed directly to tariffs on china. we cut trade deficit we grow faster beauty of cutting trade deficit with china. what happened in q2 if you look at numbers exports tell on currency effect associated with higher interest rates, jay powell and fed started raising rates00 base points we saw dollar go up by 10% we can do everything right in fact president trump is doing everything rate tax cuts deregulation, trade reforms unleashing our energy sector. >> o i don't disagree -- i understand, i understand, the national security issues, i totally get that. but look at this market, look at this volatility that it has caused now axios is reporting that president trump and the white house in a bind with china claiming retail trade deal with beijing is tough improbable. >> axios