setting the scene when it comes to jackson hole. are the of monetary policy. -- these are the oscars of monetary policy. it is interesting to see how much has changed from a year ago. a year ago it was all about inflation. having to prove they were serious about teaming and containing inflation. we have had an aggressive hiking cycle. now the question is to how much more and for how much longer. i think we will get both mr. powell and the head of the ecb reinstating the idea that it is about the data. when it comes to the ecb in particular, the european central bank was perhaps later to the game and one of the key lines from the ecb is whatever the fed does well factor into the global conversation. they are not fed dependent but data-dependent. beyond the emphasis on data defendants what clues are you listening out to when it comes to lagarde when it comes to the next steps -- hike or pause, in terms of clarity from jackson hole? >> i'm not sure if it will bring us clarity but it will bring us debate. the head of the ecb has introdu

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tom: i am house shopping in jackson hole. four bedroom. look at the real estate in jackson hole.t is because of the taxes. everybody wants to be out there. jonathan: that number is why people cannot buy and why people are not selling. that is why this market is frozen. the ticker on bloomberg -- worth tracking. xi jinping skipping a business form he was expected to deliver a speech on chinese economy and its support for emerging markets. the no-show as china's economy struggles with falling prices and a struggling property market. a no-show as the economy is not performing so well. tom: i am going to be careful to not editorialize. a study in international relations is coming out of lord o'neill. the old bricks, the modern bricks, you take which side they stand on end is the age-old tension of china and india. who is presidency speaking -- president she speaking to? jonathan: not speaking at all. the other story, nvidia reporting earnings after the company soaring you to date the backup optimism over ai, including last quarter that came in started than expected. the guidance hear

kicking off our jackson hole coverage.utes, tom, john, and lisa will be live with special coverage throughout the morning. we check on the markets right now, not much going on. and futures are up .25%. the euro stuck at 1.08. the 10 year yield at four .25. and we have a crude oil move. it is up over $80 a barrel. and we see the global benchmark brand under $85. that is one of the few assets we see moving. i think traders are waiting for jay powell speech. that is 35 minutes after the market opens. maybe then, you will see some volume on this friday. and chief u.s. economist at s&p see -- at smbc nikko securities america is joining us this morning. in terms of what the fed is going to say, you heard jim bullard talk about the reacceleration in the economy and we see estimates from new york to atlanta that are growing 3.8% and 5.8%. the concern is that inflation -- we get the embers turning back into a fire. what are you thinking about the economy and inflation right now? joseph: if you look at past recessions, it will not -

>> jackson hole. >> that is easy. why jackson hole? why is that your word of the day?ve a special connection to jackson hole. i was waiting for that word of the day, i have to be honest. i think what we'll see at 10:00 is jay powell and an him to reiterate previous thoughts that we're not in the clear yet. we have come a long way in terms of improvements in inflation. with veria various figures in t to 5% range. it is too early to call a victory lap. he'll continue to say every meeting is something he will not commit to at this point. they are in restrictive territory with the funds. it is a matter of wait longer. we expect him to reiterate that message. >> ahead of the inflection point, how are you positioned with the equities? >> we are not going to react to what he says today, i'll tell you that. we are underweight in equities. we have a cautious stance. we're neutral fixed income. we feel the markets are priced for this very narrow path to a perfect soft landing. we think with rates where they are in restrictive territory, we think we're going to expect to see slow

jackson hole, that is acceleration, things are moving subtly and i'm sorry, beijing is in jackson hole on friday. jonathan: you've missed quite a bond market move, tom. let's get to the markets. tk, when you left, these yields looking at highs we haven't seen in the closed since 2007. some serious level. tom: first thing i did today is look at the real 10 year yield. 2%, 1.98%. it is simple. there it is, almost back to where it was, jackson hole of 2007. you say what is a fancy number? 2.22. we are not yet to june and july before the crisis. jonathan: this is real rates. tom: real rates, which is how the adults think. lisa: there are different ways of measuring the mortgage. when you take a look at a range of different yields, you are seeing some of the highs going back 15, 16, 17, 18 years. is this the new normal even if inflation gets under control? >> yields are up this morning by five basis point or so. equity futures positive by 0.5%. lisa: some would say the week starts friday, but i say the week starts tomorrow. tomorrow with the beginning of the meeting in johannesburg, south a

. >> jackson hole. >> jackson hole next week. >> next week, jackson hole. >> jackson hole is going to be two points of focus. >> if we really come down to powell to be on message. >> we don't really think we will hear a big change in narrative. >> what is the fed ultimately looking for? >> they are likely to take a look at why demand imbalances. >> labor markets will decide how much they need to adjust the over night fed funds rate. >> the fomc participants should be looking at the last three months worth of data. >> the fed has done so much already in terms of delivering those hikes. >> these are not going to be near term policy decisions of what they need with rates next month. >> rate hikes at the september meeting. >> maybe the fed doesn't need to hike. >> we are not certain blessed hike is behind us. >> the fed will keep rates higher for longer. >> the fed will have to be more aggressive, raising rates higher in keeping rates higher for longer. katie: joining us now is michael and mark. since you are sitting next to me, i will start with you. we will get to jackson hole but let's

the word at jackson hole was complexity.ify how we get to september and what are you focused on within the present complexity? >> thanks for having me this morning. i think you are right, it's very complex environment. wherever you look in the global economy at the moment, if we are talking about the u.s. are looking at the fed, i think policy friday was no new news. the way he delivered his messaging was not novel. the idea of proceeding carefully and the data dependence is something is a common theme across major central banks. the ecb, the fed can the bank of england are all saying that currently. the key thing therefore will be the data that we have between now and the next meeting. tom: you keep track of innovations on the continent of europe and great britain but also the united states. that was the theme at jackson hole the got some traction. what is the aberdeen innovation meter for europe? can that jumpstart gdp and equity performance? >> one of -- there has been a lot of attention on artificial intelligence and the

jackson hole. what is the buzz in jackson hole?w is the bank of portugal governor, mario centeno. governor, thank you very much indeed for joining us. we are waiting to see what's going to come out of jackson hole. you are one of our first conversations. what do you think the buzz is going to be? what is it going to be that people are talking about there? is it going to be mission accomplished, higher for longer, those pmi numbers that just came out of europe? gov. centeno: thank you. thank you for having me. this is just starting, but i can tell you that we are going to be focused, of course, in the numbers for the economy, the numbers for inflation, following up on what it's been so far, the monetary policy transmission that is already in the numbers. we have to be cautious this time around because the downside risks that we identified have materialized. this is an inversion of what happened throughout the pandemic recovery because, usually, we have been surprised on the upside. this is in part, in my opinion, because the transmi

it could be dull from jackson hole today >> okay.e won't expect much in terms of near-term guidance could he address where rates go over the longer term looking at the title of the summit this time around, the theme is structural shifts in the global economy. >> i think there has been debate of the rate of which policy is neither restrictive or too loose and if you shift at times. most people assume it is 2.5% and maybe there has been some changes in the economy and the global markets recently. that may mean it shifted higher a little bit. it is early to call judgment on that. regardless of that point, it is clear that rates are in restrictive territory already. when you have seen balanced sheets shrink in the past, that is generally a little bit of a negative for risk assets. for us, yields are very attractive at these levels and ultimately as growth slows and potential shocks to asset markets come when rates are high, treasury yields and global government bond needs are attractive. we expect them to be lower in 6 to 12 months time.

we have been focused on jackson hole and lagarde and powell.hat about what we have learned from the bank of japan? powell's speech weighed on it itself. >> i think the be oj has not been -- the boj has not been rattled by the weakness in the yen. they are looking at inflation. if you look at headline measures in japan you would think that inflation is around 3% give or take. but for the governor it is the underlying inflation that matters. by his calculations they don't see it anywhere more than 2%. which is why there is little urgency on the part of the boj to move away from the low rate scenario. in a world where the fed is saying -- we heard from powell, they may raise rates more perhaps to 6%. if the boj is going to stick to that in this world we will get a weaker yen. boj is not concerned about it but the finance ministry is antsy about letting the yen we can more. we are set up for interesting times on the yen. host: a new import in europe, taking wall street by storm. explain what that offers. will it get much take up? >> the euro market

let's head back to the jackson hole economic symposium. a huge difference on where affects and currencies go from here. bloomberg's michael mckee standing by with our next guest. michael: jay powell is not the only important central banker here. we have a number of central bankers from around the world and one of the more is the president of the boom this bank. a member of the ecb governing council. take you for joining us here today. you have the same sort of issue as the u.s. does in that inflation is too high. but the underpinning economies are different. can you give us a feel for what the european economic situation is in relation to rates at the moment. bikes i'm not sure if the situation is different in economic terms. i think the situation is very tout -- very challenging. this is for sure -- it seems to be in europe that the labor markets on the similarities with the u.s. is really pretty good. so we have a good labor market situation, but the economic activity is slowing, this is for sure, but this is not a surprise to me. i thin

live from jackson hole. this is bloomberg. i say more issues for boeing. spirit improperly drilled holes in a key plane component within the bulkhead of the 737 max. the shares over 3%. brooks joins us from bloomberg opinion with the details. this was an isolated incident you could live with it isn't. when is boeing going to have a grip on this? >> it's mind blowing we are still learning about new issues today. the grounding of the max where they supposedly went over every inch of this plane and to still find unwelcome surprises is -- confounds the imagination here. good news with bowing is these issues appear to be getting increasingly manageable in scope. we are not talking about the issues with the flight control systems that led to those fatal crashes. it is still an image problem and a reputation problem and you have to wonder do they finally get their arms around this and stop surprising investors with bad news about their airplanes. alix: this might be a silly question. planes are hard to build, aren't issues normally go

watching wyoming as the world's central bankers head to jackson hole. we will bring your top interviews from the kansas city fed. the netherlands and denmark will provide ukraine with f-16 fighter jets in an agreement hailed by president zelenskyy as historic. good morning. happy monday. who have you -- you have -- i hope you have your cowboy hat at the ready. all eyes on chair powell as we await his speech at jackson hole. concerns about an imminent u.s. recession might be fading but investors are still looking at potentially entrenched inflation and therefore higher interest rates for longer. treasuries are down for the year after the recent losses but those losses are almost nothing to do with markets replacing fed policy which you can tell because the steepest declines are at the long end of the curve where treasuries are poised for the worst month of 2023. 10 year treasury yields are closing in on the s&p 500 earnings yield. u.s. equities gained some ground in the final minutes of the session but it was not enough to stop the s&p 500, ending nearly

matt: let's get out to jackson hole. our coverage with former president of the federal reserve. jim bullard. take it away. mike: good morning everybody. it is a tradition here at jackson hole to start our coverage with an interview with jim bullard we come out at 6:00 a.m. and jim joins us in the cold every year. and he is joining us now from the university where he is the dean of the daniels school of business. welcome back to the show even if you are not here in person. jim: i am glad to be here and i wore my jackson hole coat in solidarity with the cold weather you have to endure every year when you are in the mountains there. mike: i offered you coffee, i wanted everybody to know that, but you did not want to come get some. the first question, i am sure you know this, why you left the fed when you did and why you took the job you have now area now. jim: this is a great opportunity for me and the school of business. we were going to get much better we are good, but we are going to go to great. i thought it would be a

so that was the message that ada had from jackson hole on friday.re watching, it is currencies this morning trading in a fairly narrow range against against the greenback. not too many moves really standing out here. but of course, tracking what's happening in the offshore yuan. given that we did see the pboc or rather china's regulators pushing through some different market reforms on sunday. so essentially cutting stamp duty for stock trades, lowering margin requirements as well, slowing the ipo process. these are just some of the measures that regulators announced, which is why we're also keeping an eye on what's happening with the china ten year yield. just ticking a little bit higher as we get trading underway. so perhaps a reaction to some of those measures that came through in terms of what else we're seeing today. while the focus is most certainly on fortescue, that is the stock that is standing out to us. so we saw a full year profit miss on what economists had been expecting, but also a very sudden change at the top because the ceo, fiona

the jackson hole summit kicks off today. the broader surge in yields has been the main reason that stocks have declined over the past few weeks. the s&p down rate of banks yesterday in macy's earnings did not help matters. this morning you are seeing u.s. futures pointing to a higher opening. traders are waiting nvidia's results later after the u.s. fell. at this point, the earnings are basically a macro indicator on ai. shares hit an all-time high yesterday and turned lower and that slide is a reminder that there is plenty of room for disappointment today. let's get over to bloomberg's asian markets executive editor paul dobson was in singapore. he is going to tell us how all of this is faring in asia session. you have chinese stocks having a late run yesterday but back down today. what is going on there? paul: yeah, good morning, lizzie. at least on the mainland equity gauges they are weaker and china today. yesterday we had a couple of hours later than where we are now. your breakfast time and our mid afternoon. we had a

. >>> attention turns to jackson hole today as u.s.reasury pares back from the multi-year high as jay powell may strike a dovish tone. we are live on the ground to bring you a host of fed voices >>> good morning a lot to get through in terms of markets today. we want to bring you new information that has come to light in the last ten minutes with the respect to the brics. the summit taking place in south africa the expectation they may extend membership that has come through in the last ten minutes the south african president has said they have come to agreement to invite argentina, egypt, iran, ethiopia and uae it will take effect in january of 2024. we thought there was a low probability this would hacppen this is a bit of a surprise. >> speaking about a surprise, we had a guest on the show this week to talk about expansion of the group. he said saudi arabia was unlikely and egypt more likely here we have a number of nations invited to join. in terms of unity in the group, india, which was opposed to expansion, the prime minister mod

michael moore, jackson hole. lizzy: -- michael mckee, jackson hole.you get more than xm around. we will have entered -- an interview with ecb president christine lagarde. don't miss that. now, an exciting development in the world of space. india is the first country to land near the moon's south pole. we will discuss with -- in new delhi. we would like you to explain the significance of landing near the south pole region of the moon and why that is so significant? >> the south for was a coveted spot for many countries, including the u.s. and china. it is rich in minerals. that can take space exploration to the next level. india now has a head start to mine these natural resources on the moon. lizzy: what does the landing mean for india and overall space exploration? >> a successful landing gives credit to india's prime minister whose vision is to make india a major player in the global space race. this will also help india achieve its other more challenging missions. for example, preparation for human spaceflight are in full swing. very soon, the coun

bring on jackson hole. i mean, got bonds going the wrong way. you see j&j ke kenvue has gotten a lot of love lately >> yeah, and j&j not so much we haven't heard much about talc lawsuits it's been quiet. i'm reading that kenvue has been losing share >> today, goldman ups to buy 29. >> yeah, look, i mean, it's possible, because now they're being laser focused, but they have been losing some share, and they actually talk about skin health and beauty segment share losses driven by u.s. mass facial care category i mean, that is a jump off global skin and health care. >> it's five times cheaper, turns cheaper than p&g and 3.1 times turns cheaper than cogate. >> i thought it was interesting. i would like to -- what do we got dividend-wise? we don't really -- they've got a different -- they look at a big dividend i don't know, david. >> that said, skeptics argue the company's track record of share losses provides justification for the discount >> tadavid, maybe they were too busy looking at pharma and medical device maybe this is one that when it's on

we had the jackson hole symposium last week.ll eyes were on what the fed chair jay powell was going to say and while the take away was that he deparidn't really surpr in the speech, saying the fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, but not a lot of new information. that reaction was positive for the end of the day for wall street. we saw stocks end the day higher and yields tracing higher. the hand over overnight was an issue for asia. whee have the ibex in spain up d ftse mib support. cac 40 is up .75%. an dax is up in germany. we will get macro data to watch out for this week. ecb minutes in the middle of the week and then we will get drips of eurozone inflation numbers. this is going to be important data for the ecb and determining what they will do in the september meeting. they heare leaning toward no hikes, but it can change. something to watch out for this week. let's talk more about what happened in the asian market session. a lot of green on the board. the knikkei up 1.7. shanghai is up 1.1. it is rare t

we have jackson hole to contend with this week.ws, but we're losing some momentum. taking a look at volumes and sectors driving this. it's pretty half-and-half, we're seeing health care and materials driving the charge to the upside, but being offset by financials and real estate dragging down the region. rish: we've got tokyo. it came back at the bottom of the hour from the lunch break, up 0.25%, but overall it is about china and how the stocks there are punishing the rest of the asian market. the banks cut the short-term rate by less than anticipated and policymakers have been calling for more lending. they are not doing that, are they? the prime rate was reduced by 10 basis points, the five-year was surprising, rates unchanged. again, there is no white horseman coming to the rescue of the housing market when it comes to monetary policy. yvonne: maybe not the right tool for it, maybe that is the glass half-full. lpr mortgage rates are at record lows, it is not effective enough at boosting demand. maybe there is more in the pipeli

annabelle: a lot of central bankers will be watching jackson hole closely. we have the bank of korea do with the decision later today. the line in blue is the bank of korea benchmark rate. say not hold here versus what you see with the fed. the yield gap is now the biggest on record. are there any changes expected today? all of the economists in our survey say we will see rates saying as they are for korea. what could change is the effect that the yield gap is having on the korean won. we have seen it under pressure this month. the korean won sensitive to what is going on in china. it is the worst performing currency in asia so far this month. and might force the bank of korea to for some time within the next six months. a decision we will be watching very closely. haidi: annabelle with a look ahead at one of the key events we are watching i had. still in the think of earnings. we are getting more details when it comes to the outlook of aia. we will speak exclusively with us cfo, garth jones. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the way to make money in the next couple o

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big day at jackson hole. s&p 500 index, a gain of point 3%. nasdaq 100 up over .1%.5.05. interesting moves, three basis point hike off the heels of that speech at jackson hole i fed chair powell. the 10 year yield, st

and european policymakers at jackson hole signal rates staying higher for longer. haidi: china lowers on stock trades and pledges to slow the pace of ipo's. evergrande reporting a 4.5 begin dollars first have lost. shery: the chairman of ending up is because biggest steel producer calls for level lynnfield the west on taxes and tariffs. we hear from him at the v 20 summit. take a look at iu was futures are coming online on this agent monday session. seeing a bit of upside after stocks was last week. it was the first weekly gain in four, but there was this lack of conviction with the s&p 500 just rising six this month. equity market already hawed, running into late july, so we are expecting a volatile start of the week. the rhetoric on rates staying higher for longer will be felt across markets. we already saw the impact on the treasury space within the sector falling after chair powell's remarks, pushing up the two year yield past the 5% level, and 10 year yield the best of 4238 level. the real five year yield surging to the highest level since 2008. brent crude al

they could have skewed towards tightening at jackson hole and they did not. i want to bring in ira jersey and liz mccormick. are we at risk of over tightening? ira: there is the risk they will do that and what is more important is we have to look at the differences between what the federal reserve is likely to do versus what is going on in europe. the federal reserve is near the end of its cycle. then the question becomes how long to they hold and ultimately what does the market price for the federal reserve in terms of what they cut? in europe and places like japan they are not done yet and there is the risk they could wind up over tightening. a lot of those central banks are behind where the fed has been. there is a risk you would start to see the global economy start to turn around and they are still hiking into that weakness. alix: liz, are they over tightening? liz: i think there is a risk. i saw in the promo loretta mester talk about that. they think if there is less risk if they over tighten they could pull back fast. i think ira is right. there is a r

that's how i read jackson hole i read jackson hole as very much not a victory lap, but just a fed that'sou know, happy with how everything has gone relatively speaking in the last year coming off a very difficult year before that and a lot of inflation fighting that needed to take place and a lot of i guess pain for lack of a better word. jay used that a lot at the last jackson hole and this year we didn't hear so much about pain. >> yeah. so in light of that, i want to get your take on the bond market and what do you think is driving long-term rates higher >> we talked about this on a few of the programs after the japanese moves on yield curve control. i think the japanese moves on yield curve control did unhinge global long-term yields slightly i think that was worth at least 10 to 15 basis points on the 10-year, maybe more. i don't think it was expectations on inflation. if you look at break evens they haven't moved much they had a pop up, they've come back this is really premium a little bit of risk premium, and maybe people thinking there's not as many buyers out there on the long e

we have the jackson hole uncertainty behind us.c meeting. i think traders will continue to watch probabilities associated with the next two meetings and that could drive the shorter-term moves in the market. >> we had two things happen last week that a lot of people thought would give direction to the market. nvidia earnings and jackson hole. still a lot of undcertainty. we are waiting for pce. that will give us some answer about september. what is the big theme you are seeing? >> i think the overarching theme for the last year and a half has been valuation as it relates to the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in history. the surge in yields on the short end and long end which brings the risk-free rate back into the picture with the higher discount rate, it means the forward earnings are less valuable. that puts pressure on the market overall and highly valued segments of the market. you have a move back up in yields and break on the upside, that is where the pressure is recently on the higher valuation segments of the m

liesman is at jackson hole. we're at 5.043 for the 2-year treasury, joe. >> so much that you said that i wanted to look into as a comcast employee. i have always got it for disney. i do. i believe that is a multiyear low, andrew. market cap down to $150. we saw when streaming and disney plus would take over the world and that stock was over 200. maybe not all the way up there. i think it was above 200. 190. it got there. >> pretty close. >> this is a new low. it is not netflix. there is a reason to talk about nvidia. words don't start with n. it's not a real word. it's n and v. n cannot proceed a v. they are allowed to do whatever they want. the other thing i would mention is the yield curve. i'm worried again. you see the 2-year? >> we mentioned it. up over 5%. >> above 5%. the other one came down from where it was at 4.30%. now that is widening again. we will talk to liesman. i have questions about the average time between the beginning of tightening cycle and the recession. i think we have gone beyond the ave

the other is jackson hole.the annual gathering of central bankers taking place in wyoming toward the end of the week. a lot of focus on what is going to come out of jay powell whenh. given that we just had the fomc minutes last week telling us that a risk to inflation is still tilted to the downside. essentially what it tells us is that we could see the need for further rate hikes and also the question of how long the rates are going to stay elevated for. so any clues as to what can come out of that will be watched very closely but in terms of the market reaction, what we actually do typically, this chart looking at the one week return for the s&p 500 after the fed chair speak and you couldn't see going back to the year 2000, the vast majority of cases, the s&p 500 has continued to rise to that is sort of a bullish indicator toward the end of the week, paul. paul: thanks. they are seeing a modest increase in customer stress while inflationary pressures are causing expenses to rise off the extremely in -- off th

now that nvidia has reported another blow-out quarter, all eyes turn to jackson hole for the fed chair's speech tomorrow. the mark's a bit on edge ahead of that. the investment committee sizing up what's at stake for your money. joining me josh brown, jenny harrington, jim lebenthal. let's take a look at the markets. the dow is down 200 points the lows of the session, half of one percent. we're red across the board is the market gearing up for a hawkish surprise is that why there's no nvidia bounce, the bounce we had went away the only bounce is in yields that leads me back to the first part of the question, the surprise from jackson hole the market will have a tough time dealing with >> i think you're on it. too much in the way of dovish expectation what is jay powell will say he's more likely to maintain the hawkish bent he may say, listen, there's been ro degrees made on inflation but there's more to go i do think you're right in what you're proposing, scott. however, i would point out the market doesn't feel disastrous, at least not to me it's off its highs, 3%, 4%, the same for the

front and center, jackson hole.y indication from the fed that it will be higher for longer. for the philippines though, cpi at the lowest level, the weakest level in 16 months. is it time to cut? >> now. our target is two to 4%. we expect to be in that range by the fourth quarter of this year. we will probably hit the lower end by the first quarter of next year. inflation expectations are well anchored. for 2024 and 2025. so we are in pretty good shape. >> but you've said before that we could see a cut by the first quarter of 2024. are you sticking by that timing? >> could you repeat that? i lost you. >> you said before that we could see a cut in the philippines by the first quarter of next year. are you sticking by that prediction? >> i think so. we are confident that we will be able to cut by the first quarter of next year. we will probably maintain that policy rate until the end of the year. >> how concerned -- are you about the lackluster growth? the slowest growth in about 16 years or so. >> no p get it's too e

jackson hole thursday, friday, coverage coming out of there on friday. we will forward to that coverage. i wonder whether the real shocks could come early in the week. that pmi data, those nvidia numbers could be fascinating. alix: and where the markets moved in relation to that. the question of the day, what shakes up markets this week? justina, what is your call? what is the thing you are watching? >> i think the big focus for traders this week is the jackson hole meeting. we are expecting speeches from the ecb, from the fed. i think the fed side, the question is that -- you can focus on the positive and look at how resilient the u.s. economy has been. lip side of that is that, is that an indication inflation is uncomfortably high? the fed will have to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. are they going to focus on the good news or indicate to markets, do not relax he just yet? we are going to keep rates high. >> i think jackson hole is important. i think the central bankers will want to recalibrate a little bit. there is no better place for doing

. >>> plus, jackson hole on the horizon. investors on the edge of their seats ahead of jerome powell's big speech friday. what you can expect out of this year's big meeting you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. from big cities, to small towns, and on main streets across the us, you'll find pnc bank. helping businesses both large and small, communities and the people who live and work there

powell's jackson hole speech at the end of the week? you can head to the cnbc closing bell on the formerly known twitter called 'x' to vote. >>> let's get a check on some top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> let's talk about regional banks because they're lower yet again as s&p global downgrades several names. associated bank corp. and valley national's ratings were cut. why? well, there was funding risk and the reliance on broker deposits. that's why you saw them lower. umb financial and co-merica and key corp. were cut. comerica down about 4%. at least the bank of monopoly is doing just fine. bank of america's raising its price target and reiterating a buy rating on hasbro thanks to the success of the monopoly go game, analysts say investors don't fully appreciate their potential to earn big licensing revenues from intellectual property library, including franchises like transformers and power rangers. all of that especially after we saw the success of barbie. shares up 7.5%. >> t

haidi: bloomberg's michael mckee at jackson hole, keenly watched for investors. annabelle: that bank of korea decision is due as well in the days or hours ahead. what you were discussing with mike, how central banks will be reacting to what jay powell says, when you look at the be ok, what has been a big focus is that he'll gap between the fed and the policy rate in korea, and that is the widest on record and something that has been putting a lot of pressure on the local currency, the korean won. this chart here takes a look at what we are expecting out of that decision today. the line in red is the key rate at 3.5%. we have not seen any sort of hike there since january. inflation does seem to be coming down at least at this stage in korea, and then you look at the line here in white, and that is what swaps indicate what tells us that investors are positioning for a hike within the next six months of around 25 basis points. the line in blue as well, that is the three-year yield, and that has been edging higher. why we expect to see a hike, again it comes down to

that is what powell also said at jackson hole, the rebalancing has eased wage pressures. the markets will be looking for that. i still think the key number is wage growth. it was the key number here and what everyone is looking at. but there is optimism here that if labor and supply and demand are to balance, maybe we could get the optimal wage growth going forward. lizzy: thanks to sofia horta e costa for joining me this morning. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. today they lead on economists cutting their china growth forecast. they also have u.k. shop price inflation slowing sharply. this is according to data in the british retail consortium, the slowest rise in grocery bills in a year. i can almost hear the sigh of relief from fred needle street. finally, they have a bloomberg scoop that clients pulled $3 billion from loan fine. it has been a tough year for many equity hedge funds. this group is based on bloomberg calculations. and investors as well. it is painful really that clients have withdr

traders shrugging off the higher for longer messaging out of jackson hole.d on the measures by china to lift sentiment in its market including cutting perhaps it's stock trading, injecting the most cashed since february limiting as well the ipo plans. if is lifting sentiment in terms of the benchmark csi index of 2.6%. bear in mind has given up half of the gains that we saw today. it surged as much as 5.5%. hsi getting a lift. all sectors and positive territory including the likes of citi jumping 10% which is the daily limit for the stocks trading in hong kong. currently, the hsi up more than 2%. gains for the benchmarks in korea as well as singapore. the nikkei 225 up by 1.7%. some say gains in the nikkei will be limited by the weaker yen. take a look at where we are in terms of the fx markets. it is really about stronger dollar story. we have the aussie dollar up by 0.5% we have the taiwan dollar in positive territory. we are keeping track of the yuan. the fix is stronger than anticipated. some say by the end of the year we see the yuan down by about 4%. i

all of this before the fed's jackson hole symposium. you can follow the coverage from wyoming on cnbc on thursday. >> so much for quiet august. >> seriously. >> a lot with china and european macro numbers and earnings season and jackson hole. that is the main event. >> nvidia. i'm looking forward to that number in terms of market action. >> they were huge in q1. they never have seen a similar guidance. >> that is it for the show. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. are you still struggling with your bra? it's time for you to try knix. makers of the world's comfiest wireless bras. for revolutionary support without underwires, and sizes up to a g-cup, find your new favorite bra today at knix.com hi. i'm shannon storms bador. when we started selling my health products online our shipping process was painfully slow. then we found shipstation. now we're shipping out orders 5 times faster and thanks to shipstation's discounted rates we're saving a ton. honestly, we couldn't do it without

. >>> and the federal reserve kicks off the jackson hole symposium today. powell is speaking tomorrow. we will see if the chairman can pour cold water on the stock pop. >>> rough week for retail. one extending the longest losing streak since 1980. >>> the republican presidential hopefuls in the first primary de debate of the season. >>> it is thursday, august 24th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc >>> good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's get you ready to start the day as we kickoff the check of the stock futures with the s&p 500 coming off the best day since june and first 1% gain in 36 trading sessions. looking at futures right now as you see with the nasdaq popping on the back of the nvidia report up over 1% the s&p also higher. the dow is lower at this hour. we are checking the bond market with the 2-year treasury yield it is just below 5.0%. something we continue to watch the 10-year treasury is at 4.18. falling back a few basis points from a few days ago at 4.26. we are looking at oil trading at

two huge stories to talk about the fed's big meeting at jackson hole, which seems to be weighing on the markets right now, or at least that's one interpretation. let's start with nvidia's blow-out quarter the stock higher today, though off its best levels of the session and down from where it was after hours late yesterday afternoon. for more on that let's bring in kristina partsinevelos christina? >>> if you're a cnbc viewer you know nvidia's numbers blew past expectations you have two reasons for that. first, roughly a 2% jump in the last three months, opened at a record high this morning those who wanted in got in as goldman sachs points out, there has been limited institutional demand after hours yesterday and today. last quarter you had all the big hedge funds scrambling to add exposure those who wanted in got in firms are racing to increase price targets and estimates which helps with the forward p/e ratio, a great barometer on nvidia's future growth it's around 56 times right now and is still lower than the 80 times we saw in may. hence the narrative i see milling about but out o

jay powell, that speech in jackson hole crushed the market. i want your thoughts.ill jay powell do the same thing to markets on friday? we have sheila bair and chris low what they're expecting next. ♪. ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ (woman) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? what if all i do isn't enough? or what if i can do diabetes differently? (vo) now you can with once-weekly mounjaro. mounjaro helps your body... ...regulate blood sugar... ...and mounjaro... ...can help decrease how much food you eat. 3 out of 4 people reached an a1c of less than 7%. plus people taking mounjaro... ...lost up to 25 pounds. mounjaro is not... ...for people with type 1 diabetes or children. don't take mounjaro if you're allergic to it,... ...you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer,... ...or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. stop mounjaro... ...and call your doctor right away... ...if you have an allergic reaction, a

jackson hole's not till friday. what till then?'re having negativity where those seven or so stocks that led the way are getting hit the hardest. i think the market will probably level off in the next couple of days. the fed has the disposal of 400 different economists that work at the federal reserve, and they can't tell you when the next recession was, when we have had one until we're over one. i'm staying long. >> i too would like to predict things after they happen. coming up, more than just jackson hole on the calendar next week. we're digging into what's next for retail. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaqar mket site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ ♪ ("un monde pliable" by jeongpill song) ♪ ( ♪ ♪ ) (camera shutters) ( ♪ ♪ ) (camera shutters) ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) >>> welcome back to "fast money." from sporting goods to departm

what we heard there coming up. >>> first, out in the actual jackson hole, wyoming. it turns out the name comes from the hole, they used to send freebies. by the way, the market selloff, is it parker's fault? >> i don't know about that. the reversal definitely coincided with the 10:00 a.m. we did, but it is hard to sort of think about anything he said that would spark a selloff. he told us, he does not see more trade-offs this year, but that could happen next year. >> things are staying steady throughout the rest of this year. then, we will see all the data involved. if we see inflation coming down weaker than we expect, this is what i am hearing from the soft data i am getting from my contacts, we might cut owner, rather than later, i think we have to let that play out. >> sooner being the first half of the year? >> we will see. >> harker concerned about the economy saying , his business contacts adjusted consumer slowing and loosening in the job market. share powell made some of that outlook in his speech. almost certainly, he will suggest the risk of balance work w

alix: there was some bear thing with jackson hole. michael: the bear spray does not help with these things. alix: really good conversation. j.p. barnett and michael mckee. coming up more of the question of the day with maximilian kunkel of ubs global wealth management. his take on are we risking over tightening. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> to the equity markets probably, because the equity markets have been assuming we get to a certain point and then we reverse course and rate start to come down. that is what has been holding up valuations and there is concern about peak tightening that is more if we stay high enough for longer, is another 25 or 50 basis points the problem or do we stay at 5% for a longer time it is is that the problem? that will be a question we have to answer. alix: that was sarah hunt talking about our question of the day which is our central banks over tightening in the follow-on is what is the risk central banks over tightening? joining us is maximilian kunkel, ubs global wealth management cio. are we over tightening

jonathan: jackson hole just a week away.k of america warning of the 5% world as global bond yields surge. inflation may remain above target leaving yields to push even higher. pimco putting out thoughts. auction prices are going up, if inflation does not come back down then yells have to go up even more to attract capital and at the supply away. lisa: yields could go even higher and at a certain point you have to wonder when to start break something or cause restrictive policy that people been waiting for that we have not gotten because companies have already refinanced so much. if companies are able to handle rates where they are, if individuals are able to keep paying a 30 year mortgage and responsible to lock that rate further and not feel the effects in this economy that can sustain higher yields for longer? jonathan: are we effectively restricted? i always have neil's voice on my mind saying no we are not. lisa: he has a pretty loud voice in a push back against people who are saying the fed can stop right now. jonathan:

experience and incredibly they didn't even go i'm talking about fed chief jay powell's trip to jackson hole last year, when he lowered the boom on the whole market he told us the economy was way too hot. we needed higher interest rates for longer if we were ever going to beat inflation. from that late august vacation through october 13th the entire stock market got laid to waste as so few people had seen powell's sucker punch coming [ boos ] so it year on the eve of powell's jackson hole speech we still don't have inflation -- traders expect him to come out swinging yet again that's why they sold off everything again today, especially tech. they don't want to be put through the meat grinder once again which is what they're now expecting. it's why they got such a break when the market opened up because of nvidia. that's why everything got crushed today, dow tumbling 374 points, s&p plunge 1.35% nasdaq plummeting a brutal 1.87%. >> the house of pain. >> traders are willing to sell at any price to avoid repeating last year's jackson hole experience >> sell sell sell! >> can you blame them? jay