he is james bullard, st.he joins us at the 2019 monetary and financial policy conference. i will cut right to the chase. you changed the economic dialogue a number of years ago with the request we find regime change. are we at that moment where there is literally a regime change in the economics where the fed has to shift the way it does business? europe,ard: i think for the ecb is facing a difficult situation, so you might look at that as a crossroads, so to speak, of monetary policy. for the u.s., generally speaking we are in good shape. we face some downside risk from the trade war and i have tried to encourage the committee to take action, which we have, to mitigate those risks and keep us on an even keel in the u.s. tom: what is the urgency of the next few meetings? some houses are saying one and done. are we too focused on the next one meeting versus the what if's of december 11 and into 2020? mr. bullard: i think we will go on a meeting by meeting basis. the committee has taken to moves, and if you loo

later today, an exclusive interview with james bullard. that interview on bloomberg surveillance television and radio at 6:30 a.m. new york 11:30 a.m. london. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the asian's check on markets with juliette saly. asian stocks higher for a third session, led by japan. yesterday, japanese markets were closed. we had that euphoria over the agreement between the u.s. and china. the topix up by 1.5%. -- we aresaying seeing china weaker. some data out of there today. the csi 300 down by 0.5%. an interesting fix from the pboc, moving away from that 0.703 they have been out for a few months. you are seeing a little bit of weakness in the offshore current , which had been strengthening on easing tensions between the u.s. and china. also watching the aussie, which is steady after the rba minutes came through today, suggesting the board really weighed whether they should move the interest rate below 1%, which they did in october, even if it means they have dwindled their ammunition. let's have a look at data

james bullard says the treasury yield curve is a worrying signal. , bullard suggested he wanted more easing. he spoke to tom keene and rinsing lacqua on "bloomberg surveillance." >> i think we have moved a lot in the last year. had we been sitting here a year ago, we would've been talking about the fed raising rates. instead, in january and february we said we were taking the interest rate hikes off the table. then into june and july, we started talking about reducing rates. the shift in monetary policy in the u.s. has been quite dramatic over the last year. i would say 125, 135 basis points, not just the 50 basis points we have had. one part of what we need to do is take stock of where we are, but also consider additional insurance in the meetings ahead. francine: should the fed be more aggressive given the risks to the economy? >> if you buy the argument i just made, we have been pretty aggressive. with long and variable lags and policy, it would take a while for those things to have an impact on actual hard data in the u.s.. i would expect those k

haidi: that was our exclusive conversation with james bullard.up on daybreak australia, we will be speaking to a career diplomat and current asia society institute vice president about trade tensions and the chances now of a deal. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: the u.s. house has given its support to pro-democracy protesters in hong kong. lawmakers unanimously passed the hong kong human rights and democracy act and three other measures. anna edgerton joins us from washington. are any of these measures anything other than symbolic? anna: two resolutions that were mostly symbolic, expressing support for the protesters in hong kong. there were two bills that actually would have an impact if they go to the senate and go to president trump to become law. one of those would prohibit the sale of some crowd control instruments like rubber bullets and tear gas that u.s. lawmakers don't want u.s. companies to provide to the government in hong kong. the other one you mentioned, the hong kong human rights and democracy act would sanction chinese officials that

shery: our exclusive conversation with james bullard.ook at how the trade war is affecting global growth in monetary policy p or we will bring in the morgan stanley warbler economist. we have the imf making a fifth straight cut to their 2019 growth forecast. the data has been disappointing. we had domestic activity indicators to come on the second part of the week. if the fed -- can monetary policy, as extraordinary and pushed to its limits and we are seeing, can it make up that detriment the trade war? >> if you look at what is happening, global growth or growth in asia, the reality is rose has been slowing down in slow motion. i think monetary policy easing will help to provide a growth cushion, but the reality is, for recovery into 2020 fiscal policy is probably what will be the more effective policy tool. happeningk at what is in asia, fiscal easing has started five it is in china. specifically in korea. we think it will have to step up more for us to see recovery to overcome what is happening on the trade tensions side. shery: what

louis fed president james bullard. them interesting news coming from twitter.y seem to be setting some rules around enforcement scenarios when it comes to world leaders. they want to make clear that the accounts of world leaders are not above policies entirely. for example, the promotion of terrorism, clear and direct threats of violence against an individual, when it comes to posting private information such as home addresses or phone numbers, information related to child sexual exploitation, all of that means that world leaders would be struck off the platform. this is bloomberg. ♪ joe: bitcoin ended the day down over 2%, although i guess it doesn't really end, continuing a trend of a week two months for the cryptocurrency. but it is not necessarily hampering investor demand. grayscale investments, the largest crypto asset manager with more than $2 billion in assets under management, posting a and or third quarter, a company saying it posted a record, tripling the asset raise from the second quarter. joining us with more, michael, the managing director at gra

rishaad: james bullard saying why he favors more cuts. this is bloomberg. ♪ imf.: let's talk about the it is not raising recession flags, but if this consecutive cut to his global growth amid rising threats. of things thatnt have happened, so how urgent is it? cut their forecast five times since they made it, and it is at the lowest since 2009 when we were in a financial crisis. and a big recession. the chief economist at the imf spoke to bloomberg after the report came out. she made it clear the biggest driver of the global slowdown across the board is the trade war. at some point it will require a definitive trade deal to end it. >> is important that this is a solution because the negative our coming to a confidence affect, and if we do not think there will be a solution, these fx will continue to have -- effects will continue to have impact on global trade. growthre not -- china's about 6.51 had been or more. next year, 5.8%. from 2.3ook for 2019, to 1.7. germany is probably already in recession. from 1.9 1.2. 1.2.om 1.9 to you do not

james bullard open to new rate cuts, and headlines. >> turkey and the united states of america have agreedre in syria. >> turkey is getting away with a slap on the wrist here. ♪ rosalind: this is "bloomberg best." ♪ rosalind: this is "bloomberg best." i'm rosalind chin. let's go to the round up up top business stories. the imf report tuesday gave it sobering picture of global economic growth. >> trade tensions continue to weigh on the global economy ccording to the imf. >> imf says the world economy will grow 3% this year, down from 3.2% from their forecast in july. the 2020 estimate is lowered to .4% from 3.5%. >> to get to a position where we have more countries and a recession like environment is when global growth goes below 2.5%. we don't have that in our projection. >> the hong kong executive outlying solutions to structural problems in her address, interrupted by pro-democracy demonstrators. >> this was a chance by the hong kong government and carrie lam to stop these protests that have escalated of late and this was all about the economy, and particularly when it comes to housing,

louis fed president james bullard. the impact of trade tensions on the global economy and why he thinks the fed should consider more insurance cuts. we are seeing is day-to-day tit-for-tat, which is a normal part of any negotiating situation. we have more trade uncertain the and businesses are going to have to take that uncertainty on board. i want to lower now because i think we want to take out insurance against these risks, and the idea that the trade war might morph into something more serious. bullard.member jim joining us for more on where policy goes from here is frederic mishkin, columbia bankingty professor of and former fed reserve member. the markets got a couple of cuts priced in between now and christmas. you agree with that? frederic: no i don't. i think the issue of trade uncertainty is a very big deal, and i think that one of the things we've learned when we worry about the zero lower bound, the fact that interest rates can't be driven below a certain point, you have to act very aggressively when you ha

. >> real quickly, we'll come right back to you, but the fact that james bullard is not dissenting is an interesting signal he's someone that worried about recession risks and wanted a bigger move. does that mean people can start pricing out that recession scenario here. would you take that from him not dissenting this time >> i think it is true the fed cutting this year, should make you a little more opt mystic about the recovery whatever your probability on recessions were, should be a little lower, because the fed is taking preemptive action it's a pretty bold statement for the fed to be cutting in this environment. i think that does help with the margin if i can just say, i think the discussion about what's causing the slow down is beside the point. the fed needs to play the hand its dealt. it's dealt a hand of slowing growth and below target inflation. the response, that's pretty straightforward. i don't think we need to overthink that it's missing the point >> as you said, john we have all of that, you describe, plus the market at all time highs that's an important variable too.

james bullard says yes. colleague frederic mishkin disagrees. >> based on some views i think are just wrong but the phillips curve is dead -- >> i do not think this idea is dead. the empirical phillips curve looks like it is zero, but the structural phillips curve could still be alive and well. i think that is a very tangible thing. alix: bullard joked that the debate reminded him of a fed policy discussion. i feel like for economists, that was probably the liveliest you will get for debate on the phillips curve. coming up on this program, the democrats take the debate stage and take aim at big tech, health care, and more. we will discuss how to hedge risk in the 2020 election cycle. we are a little bit weaker, with bank of america delivering solid margins. this is bloomberg. ♪ everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile lets you design your own data. you can share 1, 3, or 10 gigs of data between lines, mix in lines of unlimited, and switch it up at any time. all with millions of secure

effective stimulative tool >> with that weaker manufacturing data, let's remind ourselves of what james bullardon the "closing bell" last week, wanting, of course, further rate cuts. >> i go another 25 before the end of the year, but i would like to reserve judgment i don't like to pre-judge meetings we'll see how the data come in, if you guys are right and i should be more optimistic, i'll certainly take that onboard. >> john, does another rate cut offset the negative sentiment we've had today? >> i think definitely another rate cut does happen, at least one more the market was baking in an october cut, but i think it happens in december. >> why >> i think you are seeing some -- >> i think the underlying economic data is slowing and the fed's idea is to cut off inflation by having higher levels of interest rates, but there is no inflation. so what are you cutting off? so why not loosen the screws to unleash some growth in the economy? and you're seeing it, look at the bond market. the companies are taking advantage of lower corporate -- lower interest rates you had one of the largest issuances

maria: you heard president james bullard, also supporting the fed last two interest rate cuts and anyure rate decisions will be made on meeting to meeting basis, so i guess it's dictate bid the activity out there, jack >> we have been fairly bullish on the banks because of the valuations and you can make the case that they deserve the cheap valuations, do you see multiples moving at all higher or trying to gain a little bit more margin on that? >> i would say that the price earn to go ratio right now is maxed out, if you look at where we are at 0 to 0.25%, inflation, 19 times trailing, operating, using s&p earnings estimates is about all you'd expect at this point, i'm not really looking for a huge market move, what i've been talking about the last week and in particular the note that we did monday was a rotation more back to reciprocal risk profile within sectors, again, we have really seen an outperformance in the past year and year to date in those defensive utilities, real estate and staples, looks like now we have a yield on the s&p that's above the 10-year yield, does seem to us